However, doing so wouldn’t be contrarian at all.

You’d just be part of the crowd.

Just check out this chart that’s been circulating this week. It comes from Mary Ann Bartels of Merrill Lynch with data taken from Investors Intelligence.

It simply measures how many newsletter writers are calling for a pullback.

And predicting a pullback is the popular thing to do right now.

Too popular, in fact.

As you can see, it’s at very high levels.

So, rather than investors becoming too complacent and optimistic, they’re actually quite timid at this point.

Barry Ritholtz drives the point home further: “When too many investors are looking for a correction, it reflects that selling has already occurred.”

So the true contrarian bet is to be a bull.

This just serves as further proof that, while the market is surging, sentiment just hasn’t gotten frothy enough to suggest a pullback.

Let’s look at another sentiment measure ­– the American Association of Individual Investors Bullish and Bearish Readings.

By taking the spread between the bullish and bearish ratings, we can see where exceptionally high or low readings show upcoming pullbacks or market bottoms. (It’s especially good at picking bottoms.)

Right now, the ratings simply aren’t high enough to suggest that a pullback is imminent.

Now, at some point we’ll need to see a little pullback, just to release some pressure. But I wouldn’t bet on it happening just yet.

Ahead of the tape,

Matthew Weinschenk

The Middle Kingdom’s stocks had a hell of a run leading up to the U.S. financial crisis. It was easy to get swept up in the vision of “a billion new consumers” fueling an endless bull-run.

Of course, the stocks crashed and have languished for five years now.

Perhaps Chinese investors forgot about impermanence, a central tenet of Buddhism – a religion with which 18% of Chinese self-identify.

The basic philosophy is that “nothing lasts forever.” And that’s doubly true of both stock gains and economic growth.

I’ve dogged on China since we started Wall Street Daily (see here, here and here) because of fraud, political instability and a false economy fueled by stimulus spending.

Even though Chinese stocks have seen a bit of a boost in recent months, they still lag behind the United States. On a risk-adjusted basis, U.S. small caps have provided a return 21-times greater than Chinese stocks over the last year.

Should you still wish to argue, though, that an economy growing more than 8% per year can’t continue to deliver lackluster stock returns, consider this: China is approaching an unfortunate inflection point.

What Does the Inflection Point Mean for China?

First, China will need to need to drastically reorient its market manipulations. That’ll lead to slower growth and lackluster stocks.

Just look at how China’s economy is working right now: The biggest game in town is still massive, government-directed infrastructure projects – primarily to expand and connect China’s massive cities through transportation systems.

As The Economist reports, “It’s like trying to tie the Philadelphia and New York metro areas together – if there were a couple more Philly-sized metros in between the two. The merger is being accomplished via a wave of infrastructure investment, including utility and telecommunications projects but consisting largely of massive spending on transport. China is undertaking similar strategies all around the country, and some clusters may come to hold nearly 100 million people.”

Now, I’m all for government investing that generates economic growth.

But China’s approach isn’t to foster organic growth by smart spending. Its goal is to manufacture growth by having the government pay for all of it.

Unfortunately, this stimulus approach is reaching its end game.

Growth, especially through stimulus, carries the risk of inflation.

According to Premier Wen Jiabao, “China is still under considerable inflationary pressure this year, and maintaining basic stability of overall prices has always been an important macro-control target.” In the same speech, Wen announced that the 2013 inflation target was cut to 3.5% – from 4% – the year before.

But in February, China’s CPI rose to 3.2%. In other words, to maintain price levels and – more importantly for a central bank – credibility, China’s going to need to slow the stimulus spigot in the very near term as inflation hits the ceiling.

To top it off, China’s manufacturing numbers have disappointed, with PMI hitting some of the lowest levels since 2009. Manufacturing growth overall grew at an annual rate of 9.9% so far this year, while expectations were for 10.6% growth.

I’m not going to say this is stag-flation.  It is, however, inflation paired with slowing growth… a terrible combination for investors.

I’ve been a China bear (a Panda Bear?) for years now. And I have a healthy respect for impermanence when it comes to investment outlooks. But this market call feels like it will last for a long time.

Ahead of the tape,

Matthew Weinschenk

That’s because they were, at least as far as investing goes.

It all started with the financial crisis, and hasn’t let up since.

Fortunately, the latest data shows that we might be getting back to normal. So you’ll have an easier time making your long-term financial goals become a reality.

Let’s take a look…

Asset Correlation Trend Now Reversing

Normally, stocks, bonds, commodities and other assets move in similar (but different) directions. So by allocating amongst them, you can drastically reduce the volatility of your portfolio without sacrificing return. This is the basis of portfolio theory and asset allocation.

Ever since the financial crisis, these correlations have been elevated.

In the month after Lehman Brothers collapsed, stocks fell 24%, corporate bonds fell 11% and even Treasuries fell 7%.

At first, gold increased. But by the next month, even gold – the ultimate safe haven – dropped 6%.

Since then, this correlation among assets has been maintained. So each time a new stress hits the market, there’s been no safe asset to smooth out your total return.

As the European crisis hit, all assets fell together. Same thing with the Fiscal Cliff fears, uncertainty over the election and Fukushima.

So even though stock volatility has been low – as measured by the VIX – portfolio volatility has not.

We’ve called it the risk-on/risk-off trade. And when all assets move together like this, it makes for stressful saving and investing.

Now though, at least one data point, which comes from the JP Morgan Multi-Asset Correlation Index, is showing that this high correlation is temporary and fading.

The Index measures the relationship between a wide range of assets, including global stocks, currencies and debt. While we haven’t reached normal levels, it appears that the last month has led to a huge dip in correlations.

Here’s a long-term view.

We’re currently near 0.40 on the Index. So there’s no doubt that we’ve moved past the worst readings up near 0.70.

Now the question is, what will eventually be determined a “normal” reading? Was it the early 2000s’ numbers around 0.10? Or were the mid-2000s’ – with a reading around 0.20 – more representative of what we should expect?

Wherever we end up, the data backs up our bull argument that risk-on/risk-off is ending, and capital will start flowing into stocks.

At the very least, you should be able to sleep easier while your retirement investments smooth out their peaks and valleys. That peace of mind alone is worth a great deal.

Ahead of the tape,

Matthew Weinschenk

Some have been hailing it as a warning against a bubble in high-yield corporate debt, which Gross expresses concerns about. But as you’ll see in a moment, the argument is more nuanced than that.

He also uses that information to conclude that we’re in store for years of low-equity returns – which is off point altogether.

First, let’s start with the bubble…

Gross’ Bet on a Baby Bond Bubble

Gross uses a recent speech by Fed Governor, Jeremy Stein, to investigate the question: “How can we tell when prices have reached a bubble level?”

The asset in question is high-yield corporate debt.

Now, it’s clear that “high yield” has become “not-so-high yield.” In the search for income, investors have bought up corporate bonds, driving prices up and yields down.

But while yields are lower than normal, we haven’t quite reached bubble territory.

Since 1996, high-yield (or junk) bonds, have returned about 5.99% more than government bonds, according to the Bank of America Merrill Lynch US High Yield Master II Index.

That average also includes the highly skewed period of 2008, when the spread reached as high as 22%.

Today the spread is down to 5%. Bubble territory? Not so much.

However, it is likely that bonds need to fall from here. So I’ll give him that much.

But his outlook on stocks is another story…

Why Stocks Should Still Rule the Day

Gross takes it a step further, citing a chart by the always-insightful Bianco Research. It shows the correlation between yields and equity prices.

Keep in mind that the yield line on this is inverted. So the chart suggests that if yields on corporate bonds rise (as we are predicting), then stock prices will fall.

Makes sense. You see, during times when money leaves corporate bonds, it can be a flight to safety that would end up in Treasuries. That money would similarly leave stocks, which backs up Bianco’s findings.

But here’s where I see the error.

That means stocks can also rise during periods of flat or rising yields.

If you extend the timeframe on that chart (as I’ve done below), you can see that while the correlation does hold true sometimes, it also clearly breaks down at other times.

The key to this anomaly? Risk.

Each time this has happened in the past, it’s been during periods of rising risk appetite among investors: after the 1998 Asian fiscal crisis, during the dot-com boom and during the subprime boom.

Yes, two of those scenarios were the building of bubbles. But all of them correlated with times when the investors’ hunger for risk rose substantially.

Why does this happen?

Well, when money leaves bonds during periods of heightened risk appetite, it goes into stocks. So in these scenarios, stocks don’t fall when corporate bond yields rise, as Bianco’s research suggests.

And I’ve been arguing that we’re undergoing the same thing right now. The risk-on/risk-off trade is dissipating. The financial crisis is over.  The European crisis is (mostly) resolved.

Simply put, the stock market is booming because investors aren’t afraid to take reasonable risks.

So far, this high-risk capital has been funneled into bonds because they have offered the highest return available for a while. That’s why corporate bonds are likely priced too high at this time. Prices will fall and yields will rise.

Only this time around, that money will flow into stocks, not Treasuries.

Bottom line: Don’t consider this bond mini-bubble to be a bad sign for stocks. I consider it just the opposite.

Ahead of the tape,

Matthew Weinschenk

Over the last 12 months, U.S. markets have rallied 10%. Emerging markets, on the other hand, have been down as much as 16% – and have barely fought back to breakeven.

The culprit? Some attribute it to earnings. The latest round of reports has shown an unusual number of the (more dependable) foreign companies reporting lackluster earnings and guidance.

And it’s not just small, risky stocks. Poland’s largest phone company, Telekomunikacja Polska (TKMGF) – a respectable dividend payer – plunged 45%. Mega-cap company, Gazprom OAO (OGZPY), is down nearly 9% since its earnings report.

So it’s true that earnings have, indeed, led to the sharp drop over the last week. But emerging markets have underperformed for the last year. Meaning there’s a bigger issue here.

Namely that America is an attractive investment again.

Think about what’s driven investors for the last few years. First, there was a fear of systemic risk. Markets were dominated by the risk-on/risk-off trade, and Treasuries were snapped up by scared investors.

Since this drove down Treasury rates, investors went on a chase for yield, plowing money into emerging markets – especially emerging markets debt. Take a look at the WisdomTree Emerging Markets Local Debt Fund (ELD) to see what I mean:

Ultimately, a fear of risk led investors to risky emerging markets investments. It sounds strange. But it actually makes sense, since the trend occurred during a time of increased pessimism about the western financial system.

There was the U.S. financial crisis, the debt ceiling debates, the election, potential European defaults, the euro crisis, LIBOR scandal… The list goes on.

Those fears made the risks attached to emerging markets seem tame and understandable.

Recall the examples of big declines I mentioned above – the Polish phone company and Gazprom. Both were big healthy dividend payers. That’s indicative of the kind of stock that these yield chasers would buy.

But that’s all changing now. Confidence is returning to the United States in a big way. Money is moving out of Treasuries and emerging markets, and flowing into U.S. stocks. And it’s happening in a way that will make this year a “game-changer.”

It also means that we’ll see a continued struggle for emerging markets, at least in the short term.

When you combine this sort of risk cycle with a few quarters of slow earnings, emerging markets will be undervalued in short order.

This prediction will be revised as new data comes in, but I suspect that in 9 to 12 months, it will be time to buy emerging markets on the cheap.

In the meantime, the good news is that falling emerging markets stocks translate into rising U.S. stocks for now. So enjoy.

Ahead of the tape,

Matthew Weinschenk

That’s what Ray Dalio says. Dalio is the Founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund (and one of the world’s most consistently successful).

But, more importantly, Dalio’s success comes from his understanding of the large cycles that appear in the way capital flows around the globe.

Now, Dalio says, one such cycle is going to alter the investment landscape and create a serious bull market.

At a panel at the World Economic Forum, Dalio said, “There’s a lot of money in a place that’s getting a very bad return. And in this particular year, there’s going to be, in my opinion, a shift.” He continued, “The shift of that massive amount of cash is what will be a game changer.”

This is a facet of what I’ve been talking about for a while, the “risk on, risk off” trade.

Essentially, since the 2008 financial crisis, a huge portion of global investors– both institutional and individual– have been afraid of taking serious risks. That’s why U.S. Treasuries have been bought up to absurd levels, driving yields lower.

It’s also why all the Fed’s quantitative easing hasn’t led to a lick of inflation. All the assets and cheap cash are sitting on banks’ balancing sheets as a protective measure.

However, both Dalio and I think that those days are coming to a swift end.

After all, the biggest fears overhanging the market and keeping all this wealth tied up in low-risk assets are abating.

The market is finally figuring out that the European debt crisis isn’t that big of a deal. The “Fiscal Cliff” and the debt ceiling debate both played out in such a way that shows Congress won’t derail the economy to prove a point.

Every economic indicator has been showing improvement.

But this big wealth shift really is the game changer in the equation. We’ve seen bull markets before. We’ve seen economic recoveries before.

But we haven’t seen a situation in which an overwhelming majority of global wealth has hibernated in only the safest assets – and has rushed out of them all at once, willing to chase higher returns around the globe.

The effect? Rising stock prices, particularly with tech stocks and emerging markets.

There’s also going to be a curious effect on commodities and gold. This exit from safe assets will boost economic activity – but it will also lead to a threat of inflation, which the Fed will have to manage. That, in turn, will lead to rising commodities (except for gold).

It’s going to be an exciting year.

Ahead of the tape,

Matthew Weinschenk

You may have also noticed that social media stocks have performed even better over that time. For example…

Facebook (FB) has jumped 39%. LinkedIn (LNKD) is up 19%. Yelp (YELP) is up 18%. Pandora (P) has surged 48%. And Groupon (GRPN) shares have bounced by 75%.

So why is this happening?

A Rally Built on Sand

Well, it’s not because social media companies have announced a slew of new products and services. Yes, Facebook previewed its Graph Search, but the stock was already rising and shares haven’t done much since the announcement.

And it’s definitely not because these companies have learned how to make money.

So while the share price gains are impressive, a closer look reveals that this rally doesn’t really have a solid foundation.

The truth is, no one has actually changed their mind about social media companies. They’ve just changed their mind about risk.

We can trace this risk outlook back to 2008 when the financial crisis hit. That year was the first time that all financial assets moved together. Everything – stocks, bonds, currencies, and gold – fell and rose in tandem.

Since the financial crisis, this so-called “risk-on, risk-off” trade – in other words, an “in or out” mentality – has held greater sway over the market and has driven its broad direction.

The rally we’re seeing in social media stocks is clearly “risk on.” Investors are willing to take on riskier assets.

And expensive social media stocks with uncertain futures certainly qualify among the riskiest stocks in the market!

So make no bones about it… This rally is not a vindication of the social media business model. And it doesn’t necessarily portend a great future for any of these stocks, because the likes of Facebook haven’t overcome any of the challenges they face.

Simply put, these stocks are rising because investors are willing to take on more risk.

So if you want to invest in them, realize that your outcome – in any time frame under five years or so – won’t be determined by the future of social media. It will be determined by the risk appetite of global investors. That’s the trade you’re making.

Speaking of technology stocks, the Wall Street Daily universe has recently expanded into the tech sector.

On Wednesday, we officially launched the first broadcast issue of Tech & Innovation Daily, where we cover the most investable tech trends and show you how to profit from this lucrative area. Just like our other e-letters, Tech & Innovation Daily is a “Forever Free” publication. Go here to check it out and sign up.

Ahead of the tape,

Matthew Weinschenk

My opponent was Aaron Brabham, co-host of Stansberry Radio. Our conversation could have made for good radio… even though the other patrons at the bar didn’t seem to want to listen in.

The topic that night: Whether or not the U.S. job market was recovering.

I argued the unemployment rate had dropped to 7.8%. Aaron countered that the labor force participation rate had hit new lows.

I’d say that initial unemployment claims continued falling. He’d argue that discouraged workers were finding low-paying or part-time jobs.

Of course, we could quote all the numbers we wanted. The trouble is, no single number can quantify the complexities of the job market – or most economic measures, for that matter.

Take the common complaint over inflation statistics. The most reported inflation number doesn’t include energy and food prices. Critics call this number worthless. No one knows a consumer who doesn’t use energy or food.

That’s not fair, though. If you’re trying to determine how policy can affect inflation, it’s not reasonable to consider food and energy, which could fluctuate based on outside influences like the weather. Both inflation measures are valuable and necessary.

Ultimately, you need a mosaic of details on inflation to determine what’s really going on. Unfortunately, the attention span of casual observers usually only makes room for one detail at a time.

The same goes for the job market. The unemployment rate doesn’t tell you everything, but it tells you a lot of important things. The same goes for payroll numbers, hiring plans, jobless claims and more.

Fortunately, the research arm of the Atlanta Federal Reserve has put together a new type of chart that should help visualize exactly what’s going on in this job market recovery.

It’s a spider chart, so it looks complex. But if you take a minute to learn what’s going on, you’ll have an understanding of the job market that’s leaps and bounds ahead of your drinking buddy.

You could consider this first one a “blank chart,” in that it doesn’t include any current data.

You can see that each quadrant shows a different way to measure the labor markets. You can measure actual employer behavior, such as hires and payroll numbers. You can use confidence measures, such as higher plans and the number of people quitting jobs. You can measure the actual utilization rates, like unemployment rates and workers who are underemployed. Finally, you can look at the leading indicators – such as initial unemployment claims and temp services – that may portent a shift in the employment market.

Any recovery may be stronger or weaker in any of those areas. And knowing how they interact reveals a lot about the strengths and weaknesses of the economy.

The second thing to notice on this chart is the baseline settings. The small blue circle in the middle represents the levels for each statistic at the bottom of the job market. The Fed has chosen the fourth quarter of 2009.

The outer red line shows the levels during the healthy economy of 2007. So as the job market recovers, the current ratings would move from the center (the depths of the recession in blue) toward the healthy economy on the outside (in red).

Now this chart shows the job market as of December 2012:

This gives us an idea of where the recovery is succeeding and where it’s stalling.

As you can see, we still have too many people working part time. The rate of people finding a job is slow. The worst statistic is “marginally attached workers,” which measures unemployed people who weren’t counted in the unemployment rate because they hadn’t looked for a new job recently.

Note that all of these stubborn statistics are in the “utilization” category.

On the other hand, the “leading indicators” indicate that a recovery is in the works. Initial jobless claims are declining and employers are having trouble filling some open positions.

Finally, the actions of employers (blue section) and the confidence they show for the future (purple section) are roughly halfway back to the levels of a strong economy.

Overall, this chart supports the idea that many parts of the economy are doing well. But there’s a certain set of workers that are having great difficulty replacing the jobs they lost during the recession.

A more optimistic view comes from the next chart that shows the lines from 2010, 2011, and 2012 on the same chart:

This shows the job market making progress each year. Last year, the only area that regressed was hiring plans.

Bottom line: A simple visualization can provide much more context than a single number. Certain areas are struggling. Even so, these figures support cautious optimism. The leading indicators are nearly fully recovered… Hopefully they’ll pull the rest of the market with them.

Now I’ll just print these out and take them to the bar with me for next time…

Ahead of the tape,

Matthew Weinschenk

Fortunately for investors, tech stocks are available at shockingly cheap prices once again.

And the smartest institutions and hedge funds are starting to load up. I think it’s time you should, too.

Let’s divide tech stocks into three categories for the purposes of this assessment.

~ The Stalwarts

There are a few tech companies right now with absolute domination over their industry, gobs of cash being generated and the potential for huge gains ahead.

What’s more, they’re available for ridiculously cheap valuations.

Google (GOOG) generates $12 billion in free cash flow per year. It has $45 billion in cash on its balance sheet. It’s still growing revenue at double-digit rates. Its search business is far from being disrupted by smaller competitors.

Even so, when you back out the cash on the balance sheet, you can buy Google’s business for 13 times free cash flow. That’s in Warren Buffett, deep value investment territory.

And when you peruse the names of large-cap tech stocks, you can see that these values abound. Especially on the basis of these companies’ generous cash flow numbers.

Cisco (CSCO) trades for 12 times earnings and 9 times cash flow. Advanced Micro (AMD) trades for 13 times cash flow. And Intel (INTC) trades for 5.8 times cash flow.

When investors look to tech stocks, they’re looking for big growth on exciting new developments. Well, these stalwarts offer significant upside.

They constantly innovate, and they’re making real money off the constantly increasing level of technology in our lives.

And more importantly, at these levels, their downside is limited. The risk/reward on these stalwart tech companies makes them a great buy over the next six months or so.

That’s why hedge fund managers have increased their allocation to the tech sector to 18.1% of their portfolios, the largest of any other sector. It’s an increase of $118 billion, according to 13F filing data.

~ The Old Dogs With New Tricks?

The tech industry also has its fair share of companies that are struggling. Mightily.

However, if you believe that any of these companies can turn it around, the stocks are extraordinarily cheap.

Since these are value plays based more on the intrinsic values of the business, rather than the future earnings potential, let’s look at the price-to-sales ratios.

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) is trading at 0.2 times sales. Research in Motion (RIMM) is trading for 0.5 times sales.

Yahoo! (YHOO) is falling into this “needs a turnaround” category. But it’s still profitable and cheap, trading for 11.5 times cash flow.

My opinion of these companies is that they’re headed for the junk heap, but the stocks could have some life in them yet. Some financiers are making big bets on the likelihood of that happening.

Renaissance Technologies, the extremely successful quant fund, added 10 million shares of Research in Motion this quarter. Hedge funds have piled into Yahoo!, upping their collective share of the company from 18% to 23%.

Again, none of these stocks are good for a buy-and-hold strategy. But at these levels, shares could see some life.

~ The Young and Misguided

At Wall Street Daily, we were skeptical of the new breed of social media stocks from the beginning.

Of course, Facebook (FB), LinkedIn (LKND), Zynga (ZYNG) and Groupon (GRPN) tanked. Other high-flyers like Netflix (NFLX) soared for a while, but came crashing to Earth.

Again, these companies have their struggles. But some of the stocks are practically being given away now.

Facebook and LinkedIn are still expensive by any measure. But Groupon trades for just 1.4 times sales. Zynga is down to just 1.1 times sales.

And again, hedge funds are moving in. Tiger Global Management bought up nearly 10% of Groupon. Luxor Capital Group has bought into Zynga. Carl Icahn has bought up 9.9% of Netflix.

Ultimately, the stalwarts I mentioned are the way to go right now. It’s a rare opportunity to get the potential rewards of tech with less risk – and at such a cheap valuation.

The degree of difficulty for investing in those stocks is also much easier.

Yes, the turnarounds and the high flyers may offer some opportunity in the short term, as their stocks rise and fall with expectations. But that’s difficult to time. And since I don’t really think those dogs will mount a sustained turnaround – or that the social media companies will ever generate real profits – you’re playing a precarious game.

But overall, when you come back to check the performance of all tech stocks six months from now, you’re going to wish you had followed the smart money on this one.

Ahead of the tape,

Matthew Weinschenk

A fear of two things has kept a true rally from taking place: the Fiscal Cliff and some recent uninspiring economic numbers.

You can write both of those fears off as a fabrication.

The key to investing is figuring out when the market is wrong and when the mistake will be corrected. That’s what this double dose of false fears is offering now.

Indeed, the market pessimism is actually creating a buying opportunity ahead of the strong rally that I predict will start off the year.

Let me explain…

The Two Factors Misleading the Market

The concerns that the Fiscal Cliff debate will destroy our economy are nonsense.

There’s no other way to put it.

There’s enough at stake here that lawmakers will reach a solution – no matter how contentious the arguments get.

It might come down to the wire, but don’t lose any sleep over the fear of sequestration.

On top of that, if our venerated politicians do manage to bungle this, impartial economists are starting to push back on just how damaging sequestration would be to our economy.

Make no mistake about it: The frenzy around the Fiscal Cliff is a product of the media competing for your eyeballs.

Heck, we’re doing it too. Fiscal Cliff coverage gets lots of attention. We’re just telling the truth about it.

Once these debates get resolved – and again, they will – the market will rally. Simple as that.

Now, the concerns about recent economic numbers are closer to reality. But they shouldn’t amount to much.

You see, earlier this week, the ISM Manufacturing Index didn’t meet expectations. And Macro Advisors, a forecasting firm that compiles leading economic indicators with a good track record, puts fourth-quarter GDP at 0.8%, which is very low.

So is the recovery slowing? I don’t think so.

First, Hurricane Sandy’s going to skew every number that comes out for the next two months. When you look at quarterly numbers, it’ll likely be smoothed out at that point. But monthly numbers will be affected.

Something like the ISM Index clocking in at 49.5 – rather than the expected 51.4 – is just what this temporary dislocation will do.

On top of that, the uncertainty surrounding the election and the Fiscal Cliff has led to a delay in business investment. You can see that it’s fallen off the trend that’s been established since the recovery started.

I suspect this spending to surge again once the Fiscal Cliff has passed, adding a real boost to economic numbers and the market.

It’s easy to get caught up in the pessimism of the news, but this is a time when a proper contrarian view can identify a short term opportunity in the market.

Today was a perfect example…

The BLS released an encouraging job report, and real employment was probably even better thanks to these numbers being skewed by the hurricane. On the same day, consumer confidence fell sharply.

Right now, measures of sentiment are weak, but actual economics are strong. That’s when you buy.

Ahead of the tape,

Matthew Weinschenk