November 19, 2009
07:02 | HappyTrading TSL ($44.15) Sold to Close TSLKR Nov 37 calls, at $7.00 +192%

November 18, 2009
12:39 | HappyTrading GOOG ($575.70) Sold to Close GOPKN Nov 570 calls, at $7.00 +15%
12:19 | HappyTrading TSL ($42.70) Sold to Close TSLKR Nov 37 calls, at $6.00 +150%
11:36 | HappyTrading MON ($79.95) Sold to Close MONLO Dec 75 calls, at $6.20 +55%
07:20 | HappyTrading GLD ($112.45) Sold to Close GCZLA Dec 105 calls, at $8.00 +191%
06:54 | HappyTrading MON ($79.75) Sold to Close MONLO Dec 75 calls, at $6.00 +50%

November 16, 2009
10:45 | HappyTrading GLD ($111.76) Sold to Close GCZLA Dec 105 calls, at $7.50 +173%
10:08 | HappyTrading GLD ($111.50) Sold to Close GCZLA Dec 105 calls, at $7.20 +162%
08:06 | HappyTrading TSL ($41.60) Sold to Close TSLKR Nov 37 calls, at $5.00 +108%
07:35 | HappyTrading ISRG ($280.00) Sold to Close AXVKU Nov 270 calls, at $11.00 +72%
07:24 | HappyTrading GLD ($111.20) Sold to Close GCZLA Dec 105 calls, at $7.00 +155%
07:03 | HappyTrading ISRG ($278.69) Sold to Close AXVKU Nov 270 calls, at $10.00 +56%

These certainly make our members very happy!
angar November 20, 2009 1:03 PM
Happy - Great week indeed.. Thanks for BIG winners this week. Very happy to be part of HAPPY community.

I’ll be back on Sunday with my weekly Market Forecast.  Happy Friday!

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

November 19, 2009
07:02 | HappyTrading TSL ($44.15) Sold to Close TSLKR Nov 37 calls, at $7.00 +192%

We’ve been locking in profits all weak and are now back to mostly cash. 

Google (GOOG) unveiled more information on its Chrome OS, which could seriouly challenge Microsoft’s virtual monopoly on personal computer operating system software.  Google’s PC is promising to start and be on the Internet in less than seven seconds!  Given the selling pressure on today’s market, GOOG held up well and closed down only 0.63%.

After the market, DELL missed its earnings estimates although it reported signs of improvement in PC sales.  DELL shares fell 6.05% this evening.

The Dow finished dow 93.87 points; SPX lost 14.90 points; Nasdaq fell 36.32 points:

As mentioned above, SOXX (semiconductors) led the market slide with a 3.43% loss.  Commodity sectors were mostly weak:  XME (metals and mining) -1.67%, OIH (oil services) -3.71%, XLE (energy) -2.24%.  GLD (gold) and SLV (silver) managed to come back into the green.  XLF (financials) stayed weak.  FXI (Chinese ADRs) fell 2.08%.

SPX

SPX fell 14.90 points to close at 1094.90, below the 1100 level.  It closed right at its 10-day MA.  The MACD flattened.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq dropped 36.32 points to close at 2156.82.  It closed below its 10-day MA and the MACD slid slightly.

As I mentioned yesterday,

"For the past 3 months, the market has been rallying to start the month.  But, right around the options expiration week (3rd week of the month), things start to stutter, going sideways."

It appears that the market is going into another consolidation period.  Unless the market somehow bounces back to close above SPX 1100, we’ll likely see the market range-bound for the next couple of weeks.  VIX jumped up above 24 intraday, but closed below 23 again.  With the DELL’s earnings miss, the market will start likely start tomorrow with a negative tone.  Financials are still looking very weak.  We’ll probably see some bounces intraday tomorrow, just because it is options expiration day.  So, expect some volatility!

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

"GLD is now in uncharted territory, with little resistance.  If the momentum is strong, GLD could run up fast and perhaps reach $113.  We could see gold testing $1150 this week."

This is exactly what happened today.  GLD reached a high of $113.09 and closed at $112.25.  Gold went up to $1153/ounce and pulled back.  This was our cue to take the last portion of our GLD Dec calls off the table for a nice +191%:

07:20 | HappyTrading GLD ($112.45) Sold to Close GCZLA Dec 105 calls, at $8.00 +191%

We mentioned about our published trade on MON in last night’s article.  We cashed those MON Dec 75 calls out today for an overnight +55% profit:

11:36 | HappyTrading MON ($79.95) Sold to Close MONLO Dec 75 calls, at $6.20 +55% 
06:54 | HappyTrading MON ($79.75) Sold to Close MONLO Dec 75 calls, at $6.00 +50%

The agriculture stocks continued higher today.  MON finished up +3.43%.  POT shot above $115 in the morning.  BG went higher up all day to finish witha +6.3% gain.  MOS and CF also continued to soar with unabated momentum, gaining +3.16% and +2.86%, respectively.

Rest of the market, however, was not so hot.  The Dow finished down 11.11 points; SPX slid 0.52 points; Nasdaq lost 10.64 points:

Most sectors finished slightly in the red, with MOO (agriculture) standing out on a +1.42% gain.  UNG (natural gas) fell 3.34% while USO (oil) finished a little higher.  GLD (gold) and SLV (silver) managed to keep some gains after reaching intraday highs.  HGX (housing) rose +0.41% even though the housing numbers were worse-than-expected.  FXI (Chinese ADRs) came down 1.3%.

SPX

SPX slid 0.52 points to close at 1109.80, just under 1110.  The daily MAs and MACD were higher.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq lost 10.64 points to close at 2193.14.  It managed to close above 2190.  Its daily MAs and MACd stayed up.

The market is stalling again.  For the past 3 months, the market has been rallying to start the month.  But, right around the options expiration week (3rd week of the month), things start to stutter, going sideways.  The question is, of course, how this month is going to play out.  VIX’s downward momentum picked up near the end of the day today and closed below 22, at 21.63.  This is normally a bullish sign for the market, especially if the market had closed higher.  However, the market closed slightly in the red.  Tomorrow, we have more jobs data; these could help to push the market in either direction.  How the market finishes this week will be very important.  The commodity sectors seem to be bouncing, along with the rising gold and sliding dollar, but, the financials have stayed somewhat muted.  We’ll need to see more strength in the financial sector to continue this rally.

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

I picked the January calls, which is 2 months out, because the market was shaky today.  These options closed at $3.7, which was the day high.  MEE is looking a bit toppy right now, although the momentum could push it a little higher.  I think these January 40 calls are reasonably priced with 2 months trading time.  MEE could see $45 before the end of the year.

In the Trading Room, we were also focused on the agriculture stocks.  Agriculture stocks broke their recent resistance levels today:  POT +6.16%, MOS +5.77%, CF +3.2%, +3.07%.  I started commenting on these in the morning:

November 17, 2009 8:39 AM
POT
a litlle breakout, above $105…

November 17, 2009 8:46 AM
MON
new leg up!

November 17, 2009 9:01 AM
POT
$106+; we can see $110 in a flash if the market strengthens… VIX still above 23, so, I’m a little more cautious…

November 17, 2009 9:06 AM
MOS
waking up…

November 17, 2009 9:41 AM
POT
I’m on Nov 110s

November 17, 2009 12:28 PM
POT 110 calls
just got out; in at $1.15, out at $2.5 +117% looks like it’s still going higher…

I got into the POT Nov 110 calls at $1.15 and took a quick intraday profit of +117%:

These options did indeed go higher.  They went as high as $2.93 and closed at $2.87.  The above 2 trades were quick intraday trades and were only discussed in the Trading Room.  We also have a new published position on MON Dec 75 calls.  MON went another $1 higher in the after-hours trading, so, our position should look pretty good tomorrow.  These are in-the-money and still have more than a month left in trading.  I think we can see MON testing the $80 level soon.  We might see some quick profit-taking tomorrow on these agriculture stocks, for they have gone quite far today.  But, if the broader market strenthens, the agriculture stocks should go higher by the end of the week.

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

The market was choppy today, with more shippers down today than up. As usual in this case, it is logical that some of the leaders are being sold and the cash moved directly into the laggards. This either indicates maturation of the sector move, or the end of one wave of the move. During this time, if the 2nd tier survive their advance, the former leaders will take off again, if not, there will be a more general retreat across the board in shippers. If and when the next wave comes, if one over-commits to the 2nd tier, it usually is hard to take profits on the 2nd tier in time to get the money into the leaders again, so one has to think out their strategy ahead of time. In my case, I moved out of the leaders entirely, playing smaller names such as PRGN and FREE, but holding lots of cash and watching for bargains and risk-reduction in GNK, DSX, and EXM.

This Friday is options expiration day. As premiums evaporate, the possibility of fast returns on a quickly rising stock in the final days of the option tempts many a trader, myself among them. We have 3 prime candidates for a high-risk high-return options play right now: DRYS at 7, PRGN at 5, and DSX at 17.50.

DRYS is possibly the riskiest. A 10 or 20 cent premium on the $7 strike for DRYS may look great, but even with 3 days to move well over the $7 mark, this formerly favored dry bulk shipper is facing some nagging resistance from its selloffs in both September and October. Still I felt could be a good bet, and took a position.

DSX at the $17.5 mark is a race against time. Three days to cover 35 cents? DSX has already gapped up that much this week. Normally, I would like to see one red bar after each gap before taking a new bullish position, but in this case DSX has become the new de-facto leader of the shipping stocks, and is destined for a much higher price range. If this play makes you nervous (quite rationally so) then consider the December calls instead.

PRGN is the pearl in this week’s oyster. It has struggled with the $5 point so often that its $5 November calls stayed at 15 cents even after the stock was well over $5.05 today. I was fortunate enough to grab a bundle of them. I feel that there is about a 50% chance that PRGN will reach $5.50 by Options expiration this Friday. You can get the $5 call for about 20 cents still at this writing. That means a 3 to 1 payoff on 1 to 1 odds. Consider the opportunity: It is a clear cut play on a beaten down stock at a critical point, it has just made a key breakout and gotten peer upgrades, and it is in a screaming sector in an uptrending market. All signs seem to be good. So I took a position on this one too.

Again, let me emphasize these options plays are extremely risky, I do not recommend them for anyone, and there is a very real chance that money put onto one of these positions will experience a 100% loss. But the enticement of a 2-to-500 percent gain, by the end of the day Friday, might appeal to some gutsy options traders. Do not take any of these trades with money you cannot afford to lose. Good luck!

Disclosure: I am long PRGN, EXM, FREE, TBSI, and DRYS.
by Skymist

November 16, 2009 8:01
coals
finally looking better… BTU, CNX, MEE, ACI

MEE
has been the strongest; new 52-wk high today…

MEE saw some very unusual options activities today.  The MEE Apr (2010) 45 calls traded 14,873 contracts today vs only 307 contracts of open interest as of Friday’s close!

GLD (gold ETF) jumped to a new all-time high of $112.16 and closed at $111.63, up +1.72%.  SLV (silver ETF) closed above $18, added +5.01% for the day.  Gold miners also pushed higher:  GOLD +3.71%, ABX +2.56%, NEM +2.75%.  See Sector Watch from last night’s article for discussion on gold (GLD) and gold miners) (GDX).  We took further profits on our GLD Dec calls today:

10:45 | HappyTrading GLD ($111.76) Sold to Close GCZLA Dec 105 calls, at $7.50 +173%
10:08 | HappyTrading GLD ($111.50) Sold to Close GCZLA Dec 105 calls, at $7.20 +162%
07:24 | HappyTrading GLD ($111.20) Sold to Close GCZLA Dec 105 calls, at $7.00 +155%

These calls went as high as $7.78 and closed at $7.4.  We are still holding a position on GLD.  We also locked in gains on many other positions, including an overnight +108% on TSL:

08:06 | HappyTrading TSL ($41.60) Sold to Close TSLKR Nov 37 calls, at $5.00 +108% (day high)
07:35 | HappyTrading ISRG ($280.00) Sold to Close AXVKU Nov 270 calls, at $11.00 +72%  
07:03 | HappyTrading ISRG ($278.69) Sold to Close AXVKU Nov 270 calls, at $10.00 +56%

Both the TSL and ISRG positions were opened last Friday.  The TSL calls went as high as $5 and closed at $4.  TSL reports earnings on Thursday.  The ISRG calls went as high as $12.49 and closed at $10.9. 

Bagger Vance also took profits on some nice trades:
07:59 | Bagger Vance QLGC ($19.60) Sold to Close QLCKW Nov 18 calls, at $2.30 +31% 
07:04 | Bagger Vance CSCO ($23.94) Sold to Close CYQKM Nov 23 calls, at $0.97 +8%
07:03 | Bagger Vance AKAM ($24.50) Sold to Close UMUKX Nov 23 calls, at $2.05 +95%
07:01 | Bagger Vance WLT ($70.00) Sold to Close WLTKM Nov 65 calls, at $5.20 +16%
07:00 | Bagger Vance FCX ($83.00) Sold to Close FHZLP Dec 80 calls, at $7.00 +106%
06:59 | Bagger Vance LVS ($17.70) Sold to Close LJJKW Nov 15 calls, at $3.20 +167%

After the market, SINA, China’s largest Web portal, reported better-than-expected earnings, sending its shares up +4.81% in after-hours.  ZOOM reported revenues that jumped more than +200% from the year before.  Its shares vaulted +34% after the news!  ZOOM is a leading China based manufacturer of mobile phones and other mobile electronic products.

The Dow was up +136.49 points; SPX added +15.82 points; Nasdaq gained +29.97 points:

Commodity sectors were strong:  GDX (gold miners) +3.13%, XME (metals and mining) +4.34%, OIH (oil services) +3.27%, XLE (energy) +2.62%.  Both USO (oil) and UNG (natural gas) were up.  XLF (financials) managed to hang on to a +1.09% gain.  HGX (housing) added +2.57%.  FXI (Chinese ADRs) rose +2.14%.

SPX

SPX added +15.82 points to close at 1109.30.  It closed above the 1100 level.  The daily MAs and MACD continued higher.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq gained +29.97 points to close at 2197.85.  It closed above 2190.  Its daily MAs curved up.

Both SPX and Nasdaq closed above their recent resistance levels.  SPX finally closed above 1100!  VIX came down to close below 23 (see discussion in Market Forecast).  The market is looking more bullish now.  The daily upper BBs are opening up, hinting for more upward movements.  Catching the daily upper BBs can allow the market to ride higher.  The resistance levels to watch are:  SPX 1130 and Nasdaq 2250.  Although the commodity sectors bounced today, the financials were still a bit shaky.  We’ll need to see more strength in the financials for the market to push higher. 

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

"For the new week, the market will start the week in a neutral position.  If SPX and Nasdaq can rise above their respective daily MAs, the market can rally higher.  The immediate resistance levels above the daily MAs are SPX 1080 and Nasdaq 2150.  Although VIX closed below 25, we might see a quick test of that level early in the week.  If VIX again poses resistance at 25, it’ll be a bullish sign for the market.  The Dow is actually leading the broader market, and, closing above 10,000, is already carrying a more bullish tone.  Financials and semiconductors are still a bit weak, and, will need to see renewed strength in these sectors to help to the market run higher."

Indeed, things pretty much happened as forecasted again.  On Monday, the market jumped above the daily MAs, as financials and semiconductors bounced.  The Dow led the broader market, hitting a new 2009 high.  On Tuesday, the market took a breather and saw minor profit-taking.  On Wednesday, the market rallied to test SPX 1100 and we locked in some solid profits.  On Thursday, energy sectors were weak and pulled the market back.  On Friday, the market regained its footing and finished a winning week on a strong note.  We also finished a very nice week with many triple-digit gain winners!

For the week, the Dow added +247.05 points; SPX added +24.18 points; Nasdaq gained +55.44 points.  Oil lost some grounds.  Gold continued to make new highs.  A lot of attention was on the dollar, which fell lower.  At the time of this writing, Asian markets were mostly higher.  The Chinese market was up more than +2%!  Gold traded around $1130/ounce.  Let’s see how the US market looks after Friday’s close.

SPX

SPX added +6.25 points to close at 1093.48.  Its daily MAs and MACD went up.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq gained +18.86 points to close at 2167.88.  The daily MAs and MACD curved higher.

Both SPX and Nasdaq closed above their respective daily MAs, and the MAs are pointing up again.  VIX came down, but, finished above 23.  For the new week…

To read the rest of this article, please subscribe to HappyTrading "Premium Articles" by going to the Premium Services (click here) page.  If you are already a subscriber, please click here: Market Forecast 11/16/09.

November 13, 2009
06:47 | HappyTrading FAS ($76.30) Sold to Close FPMWY Nov 77 put, at $4.20 -5%

November 12, 2009
12:29 | HappyTrading GOOG ($566.90) Sold to Close GOPLN Dec 570 calls, at $15.00 +105%
09:37 | HappyTrading GOOG ($570.00) Sold to Close GOPLN Dec 570 calls, at $16.50 +126%
08:12 | HappyTrading APA ($99.20) Sold to Close APAKT Nov 100 calls, at $1.45 -47%
07:04 | HappyTrading CTRP ($70.10) Sold to Close QCTKL Nov 60 calls, at $10.30 +222%

November 11, 2009
11:49 | HappyTrading GOOG ($570.00) Sold to Close GOPLN Dec 570 calls, at $17.00 +133%
06:57 | HappyTrading GLD ($109.45) Sold to Close QCZLA Dec 105 calls, at $5.50 +100%

November 10, 2009
12:59 | HappyTrading CTRP ($65.37) Sold to Close QCTKL Nov 60 calls, at $6.60 +106%

November 09, 2009
10:12 | HappyTrading GLD ($108.20) Sold to Close GCZLA Dec 105 calls, at $4.60 +67%
07:20 | HappyTrading CTRP ($63.35) Sold to Close QCTKL Nov 60 calls, at $5.00 +56%

Have a wonderful weekend, everyone!  I’ll be back sometime this weekend with my weekly Market Forecast.

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

Nevertheless, we cashed out on most of our long positions with over +100% gains, including a +222% winner on CTRP:
November 12, 2009
12:29 | HappyTrading GOOG ($566.90) Sold to Close GOPLN Dec 570 calls, at $15.00 +105%
09:37 | HappyTrading GOOG ($570.00) Sold to Close GOPLN Dec 570 calls, at $16.50 +126%
08:12 | HappyTrading APA ($99.20) Sold to Close APAKT Nov 100 calls, at $1.45 -47%
07:04 | HappyTrading CTRP ($70.10) Sold to Close QCTKL Nov 60 calls, at $10.30 +222%

We took most of GOOG position off the table and cashed the rest of our CTRP position out.  We also cut our losses on the APA calls.  After the market, DIS reported better-than-expected earnings.  Its shares traded +2.24% higher in the after-hours session.

The Dow closed down 93.79 points; SPX lost 11.27 points; Nasdaq fell 17.88 points:

Most sectors ended in the red today.  Commodity-related sectors led the market lower:  OIH (oil services) -3.05%, XME (metals and mining) -2.23%, XLE (energy) -2.2%, GDX (gold miners) -2.93%.  Both GLD (gold) and SLV (silver) took a breather today.  XLF (financials) was down 1.87%.  FXI (Chinese ADRs) dropped 1.83%.

SPX

SPX fell 11.27 points to close at 1087.24.  It still was not able to close above 1100.  The MACD was slightly higher.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq lost 17.88 points to close at 2149.02.  Its daily MAs and MACD remained up.

Like I’ve been saying in our Trading Room and in my articles, this market will have a difficult time rallying above SPX 1100 without the energy sectors.  SPX once again tested 1100 today and once again failed to close above.  Today’s weakness in the crude and gasoline inventories gave the market an excuse/cue to take some profits and consolicate after 7 sessions of gains, which we have been doing for the past few days.  VIX popped back above 24 and could test 25 tomorrow.  We are being a little more careful here as we are now mostly in cash.  The market indices are still carrying upward-pointing daily MAs, but, the new bullish formations have not been quite established (although the Dow does now have a new bullish formation, not shown here).  The support levels are once again SPX 1080 and Nasdaq 2150.  Tomorrow is Friday, so, I’d expect some choppiness, especially in the morning.  The last 2 hours of trading could be important to set the tone for next week.

By the way, in case you missed it and you’d like to get a dose of positive attitude, positive thinking, and positive energy, check out the program aired on CNBC tonight with Warren Buffett and Bill Gates:  Keeping America Great.

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

"The market had a really strong day today and we could see some profit-taking tomorrow.  SPX 1100 could be tested, but, I think we might need a couple of more days before breaking above that level."

Isn’t it funny how a couple of sentences can sum up the market actions for 2 days?  On Tuesday, we saw some profit-taking and the market basically closed flat.  Today, some buyers came back in and pushed the SPX above 1100 intraday.  However, SPX closed just under 1100.

Nevertheless, we continued to lock in profits on our trades, all with +100% gain or higher:
November 11, 2009
11:49 | HappyTrading GOOG ($570.00) Sold to Close GOPLN Dec 570 calls, at $17.00 +133%
06:57 | HappyTrading GLD ($109.45) Sold to Close QCZLA Dec 105 calls, at $5.50 +100%

November 10, 2009
12:59 | HappyTrading CTRP ($65.37) Sold to Close QCTKL Nov 60 calls, at $6.60 +106%

All of the above trades were opened last week.  Please visit our Premium Services (CLICK HERE) page to find out how to participate in our published trades.

Gold continued to make record highs, almost touching $1120/ounce today (discussed in Sector Watch this weekend).  Oil was slightly higher.  The dollar was still weak.

After the market, HPQ announced a $3.1 billion deal to by COMS.  COMS shares vaulted more than +35% on the news!  There are a lot of talks this evening about which company in this sector could be the next buyout target.  Most people are focusing on IBM being the buyer, in order to compete with CSCO and HPQ.  JDSU, BRCD, BRCM, and JNPR are among the potential buyout targets.  JDSU traded up almost +8% in after-hours.  Following PCLN’s strong earnings, CTRP reported a quarterly profit that jumped +80%, easily beating the estimates.   Yesterday, in our Trading Room, I commented:
November 10, 2009 9:43 AM
CTRP
all-time high $70.89… we could see $70s if PCLN’s strength in business is indicative of the industry.

CTRP shares jumped +12% this evening, trading just above $72.  Our remaining position on the CTRP Nov 60 calls should do really well tomorrow.  We locked in enough profits already to let the rest ride through the earnings on house money.  So, zero risk and huge gain potential.

The Dow finished up +44.29 points; SPX added +5.5 points; Nasdaq gained +15.82 points:

Most sectors were slightly green today.  XLE (energy), however, was on the weak side.  XLF (financials) strengthened with a +1.35% gain.  SOXX (semiconductors) added +1.36%.  GLD (gold) and SLV (silver) were both higher.  HGX (housing) jumped +3.68% on better-than-expected earnings from TOL (TOL finished the day up +16.42%!!).  FXI (Chinese ADRs) was flat.

SPX

SPX added +5.5 points to close at 1098.51, just under the 1100 level.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq gained +15.82 points to close at 2166.90.  Its 10-day MA curved up.  The MACD went higher.

Market’s actions have shown renewed strength.  The Dow has already broken higher and keeps on making new 52-week highs.  SPX and Nasdaq still need to break above their recent resistance levels: SPX 1100 and Nasdaq 2190.  VIX came down to be 22 intraday, but, bounced to close just above 23.  The support for VIX at 23 seems fairly solid and the market will need to see VIX below this level for more money to come in and stay in.  Tomorrow could be the deciding day.  The market has rallied far in the past week.  But, today’s intraday pullback after going above SPX 1100 allowed the market to let off some steam and create some room in the technicals to allow the market to go higher.  We’ll need to seem some strength back in energy stocks to push the market above SPX 1100.

Good night and HappyTrading! ™