Wavaholic - Stock Market Analysis and Forecasts - Elliott Wave Theory - Elliott Waves

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 16 February 2012

2012-02-16T17:21:00.001-05:00

The current rally since December and the rally in fall 2010 look very similar:

Back in 2010 we didn't get a correction until a new high was made. And I wouldn't be surprised if the same happened again. So a new high next week around 1380 and then a correction to 1330 (just a wild ass guess though! ; ))

Just wanted to let you know that there won't be any posts tomorrow during market hours because I'm going skiing.

EUR/CHF ~ Update ~ 16 February 2012

2012-02-16T10:12:00.000-05:00

As written in my EUR/CHF update of September 6th 2011 I expected the EUR/CHF to trade between 1.2 for the next few months and so far the EUR/CHF obeyed me... ; )

As long as these levels hold trading the EUR/CHF is quite simple - long at 1.2 and short at 1.24-25.

Gold ~ Update ~ 15 February 2012

2012-02-15T21:00:00.000-05:00

Gold has been consolidating for the past two weeks after it hit the resistance at 1760ish:

Silver ~ Update ~ 15 February 2012

2012-02-15T17:46:00.000-05:00

Silver has been trading between 33 and 34.5 $ for the past three weeks:

Once we break out of this channel we should see a nice move.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 15 February 2012

2012-02-15T13:10:00.003-05:00

The SPX has been trading between 1340ish and 1355ish for the last few days:

If we break out of this tight channel we could get a decent move. Next target to the upside is last year's high at 1370ish and to the downside 1325 and 1330ish.

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 13 February 2012

2012-02-13T18:05:00.001-05:00

CAC ~ Update ~ 10 February 2012

2012-02-10T08:34:00.001-05:00

A reader asked me whether I could post an update on the CAC (French index). Mais bien sûr! ; )

I actually never followed the CAC so I was very surprised that the French index is still about 20 % below last year's high (meanwhile the SPX is near the 2011 high...).

The CAC entered a huge resistance area mid January (3350-3450). If it can break above 3450ish we could see a rally up to 3700-800:

Support areas are 3250ish and 3350ish. As long as these levels hold the medium-term trend is up.

I also had a look at a long-term chart:

This is my preferred count. As long as 3250 holds the count looks pretty good and we could eventually rally towards last year's high. Should the CAC drop below 3250 though, then something else might be underway. Technically the count is valid as long as there is no move below 2800. A 600 point stop isn't very appealing though...

For the sake of completeness you can see the bearish count below:

EUR/USD ~ Update ~ 9 February 2012

2012-02-09T13:42:00.002-05:00

Earlier this week the EUR/USD broke the resistance at 1.32ish, which is now support. As long as we're above this level the trend is up. Next target is 1.35ish:

Nasdaq ~ EOD Update ~ 8 February 2012

2012-02-08T17:54:00.002-05:00

For a change I post a Nasdaq chart today:

The SPX is still a few points below last year's high meanwhile the Nasdaq hit a level we haven't seen since late 2000! I mentioned that I expect a correction sometime in February followed by another rally. So, what could happen for the Nasdaq, is that we'll retest the breakout area between 2800-900 and then move higher.

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 7 February 2012

2012-02-07T18:36:00.000-05:00

The SPX hit 1349 today and is now less than two percent below last year's high!

As said yesterday, I think we could see a correction sometime in February. We may need a test of 1360-70 first though. Should we get a correction, potential targets are 1325-30 or 1312.

Silver ~ Update ~ 7 February 2012

2012-02-07T12:26:00.002-05:00

As pointed out last week, 33 $ should be support. Silver hit this level yesterday and today and already rallied about 1 $ from this level. I hope you took the trade : )

Gold ~ Update ~ 6 February 2012

2012-02-06T14:05:00.002-05:00

We actually got a correction at the resistance at 1760ish:

Support and resistance areas are shown in the chart above.

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market Warm-Up ~ 6 February 2012

2012-02-06T09:28:00.002-05:00

To be honest I thought the correction would last a bit longer but the target of 1295ish was almost hit so the SPX was ready to move higher:

I still think we'll see a correction in February (wave 4) but there is no way I'll try to short it... rather add to my longs after a pullback (as during wave [iv]).

Silver ~ Update ~ 2 February 2012

2012-02-02T18:28:00.000-05:00

I realized that I managed to upload the wrong charts in my last post... It's fixed now ; )

Silver broke the resistance at 31 $ mid-late January and after a small pullback also the resistance level at 33 $ and is now up 6 $ already this year:

33 $ is now support. Next resistances are at 35 and then 39 $.

Gold ~ Update ~ 2 February 2012

2012-02-02T11:35:00.001-05:00

After some consolidation around the resistance at 1670ish gold rallied on and is currently trading at 1760. As said in my previous update a break of 1670 should lead to a new all-time high:

I added two weak resistance levels around 1760 and 1800 which could offer some resistance. Medium-term we should rally to 1900+ though (as long as 1650-70 holds).

EUR/CHF ~ Update ~ 31 January 2011

2012-01-31T13:57:00.003-05:00

As expected after the minimum rate was announced in September the EUR/CHF has been trading between 1.20 and 1.24 since then.

We're approaching the 1.20 level so a long here might be an interesting trade with a good risk/reward.

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market Warm-Up ~ 31 January 2012

2012-01-31T09:32:00.002-05:00

Looks like my wild ass guess that a correction was underway is correct... : )

Wave [ii] took about two weeks to unfold. So far, wave [iv] has only lasted three days so, most likely this correction takes a few more days to complete.

As said earlier the 1265 level is important for the medium-term uptrend.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 1 ~ 26 January 2012

2012-01-26T12:42:00.000-05:00

Since the bounce at the support area around 1200ish mid-late December the SPX has been in a solid uptrend. As long as we stay in this channel you shouldn't even think of going short. Rather stay long and enjoy the ride up... it's as simple as that.

As you can see in the chart I added a tentative wave [iii] so we could see a small correction late January/early February. The uptrend looks very strong though, so, I wouldn't short just because there is now a wave [iii] at 1335...

Maybe you remember the big picture post I wrote about three weeks ago. If not, shame on you! Go and read it again: http://www.wavaholic.com/2012/01/s-500-big-picture-4-january-2011.html. : )

Since the market just kept moving higher the bullish count looks now pretty good. And as long as the SPX stays above 1265 it's my preferred count. So, at worst if you went long around 1270 earlier this year you'd get stopped out at break even (but you probably went long earlier or you already sold some of your longs this week so you'd be up even if you get stopped out at 1265ish ; ))

Silver ~ Update ~ 20 January 2012

2012-01-20T09:19:00.002-05:00

It's been almost a month since my last post on silver. Late December silver hit the support level at 26 $. Since then it has moved back up and hit the resistance area around 31 $ yesterday. If we can break it the next target should be 33 $:

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 19 January 2012

2012-01-19T18:24:00.001-05:00

As said last week, as long as the SPX stays above 1265 the trend is up:

Support levels are at 1295ish and 1265ish. I'll post more tomorrow morning.

Gold ~ Update ~ 12 January 2012

2012-01-12T16:22:00.002-05:00

As pointed out in my last update three weeks ago that, despite the break of the orange trendline, I wouldn't short gold because there is huge support around 1550.

And that's what has happened since then:

We got a huge bounce at the support at 1550ish and are now back at the 1670ish resistance area. If gold can break this area we could see a rally towards the all-time highs at 1900+. A break below 1550 on the other hand should lead to a sell-off to 1420-30.

Just out of interest I had a look at the linear scale chart of gold:

And guess what... there was a perfect test of the orange trendline. So, I guess gold bulls will use the linear scale chart now... : )

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market Warm-Up ~ 10 January 2012

2012-01-10T09:29:00.001-05:00

So far, the market hasn't moved anywhere this year as we're still trading around 1280.

The ES rallied overnight though so the SPX will open around the October highs this morning. If we can break it we could even see 1300 today.

As long as the SPX doesn't close below 1265 we should go higher.

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 5 January 2012

2012-01-05T17:43:00.001-05:00

The SPX retested the previous resistance at 1265 today which is now support:

If you have a look at the chart it looks like the market formed an inverse H&S with a neckline at around 1265. So, if the SPX stays above this level we might go a lot higher. The target for this H&S is at around 1370.

S&P 500 ~ Big Picture ~ 4 January 2012

2012-01-04T09:53:00.001-05:00

It's been a bit more than three months since my last long-term update for the SPX.

During these three months the market moved almost as expected: Early October we got a decline below 1100 to complete five waves down from 1370. Then, on October 5th, I turned bullish and expected a three wave move to 1260ish. At the moment we're a bit above the 1260 level but it looks like we're in the last wave of this correction:

Both counts are very similar, at least short- and medium-term. At the moment I don't really care which one is correct as we can assess the situation again once we are around SPX 1000.

1160 and 1200 are the important levels to watch. If we break below these then the next downwave is most likely underway i. e. a sell-off to ~1000 should occur. The SPX shouldn't rally much above 1310 though else these counts are very, very unlikely.

Although these two counts look pretty good I always like to be as objective as possible and the rally from the October low has already retraced more than the usual 62 % so the following count is an alternative you definitely have to consider:

What if the correction (wave [X]) already ended at 1075? Maybe we're already in wave [Y] up towards new all-time highs (I know the economy is in bad shape but after all we're only 300 handles away which isn't that much since the market has already rallied 600 handles from the lows (and the economy wasn't in better shape back then...)).

In my opinion the level which has to hold is 1200. In fact, we should see a quick rally back to 1370 during Q1 2012.

To sum up, the counts point in different directions so I suggest to use the 1200 (or 1160) level to make your decision. If we're below it = bearish and above = bullish.

I think we'll know within a few weeks which way the market will most likely go this year so check out my daily updates. ; )

Updates will resume tomorrow

2012-01-03T16:38:00.000-05:00

I hope you had a great Christmas and a good start into the new year : )

I wish you all the best in 2012!!

Daily updates will resume tomorrow morning before the open.