Wavaholic - Stock Market Analysis and Forecasts - Elliott Wave Theory - Elliott Waves

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 30 May 2012

2012-05-30T17:20:00.001-04:00

No EOD rally today (as you probably noticed... : )), the Dow stopped right at 12460 (http://www.wavaholic.com/2012/05/dow-jones-intraday-update-2-30-may-2012.html).

The move from the lows looks very corrective (probably a fourth wave) so at the moment it looks like we'll decline to 1295ish once again:

The ADP employment change and the GDP are released tomorrow before the open so we could get another huge gap (up or down).

Dow Jones ~ Intraday Update 2 ~ 30 May 2012

2012-05-30T13:42:00.003-04:00

12420ish is still holding and it looks like the Dow is trying to rally:

If we manage to get above 12460ish we could get a nice EOD rally, similar to last Wednesday.

By the way, the low on May 23rd was at 12:28, today's low at 12:27...

Dow Jones ~ Intraday Update ~ 30 May 2012

2012-05-30T12:17:00.001-04:00

The Dow Jones opened lower today and is now hovering around the support at 12420ish. A break of this level should lead to a decline to last week's low. If we get some kind of a reversal in this area though then the targets are 12520-30ish and 12580 (gap close).

EUR/USD ~ Update ~ 30 May 2012

2012-05-30T07:27:00.000-04:00

After 1.26 was breached last week the EUR/USD continued its decline and is now at the support area at 1.2400-50ish:

As you can see in above chart the current decline from 1.49 would form a nice shoulder of a huge inverse H&S.

Obviously this is all speculation so let's have a look at the medium-term trend. The medium-term trend is still down, ever since 1.30 has been broken. If we get a convincing break of 1.26ish though then I'd turn bullish again (target 1.3).

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update ~ 29 May 2012

2012-05-29T14:08:00.001-04:00

The SPX broke the resistance at 1328 at the open and then rallied to 1335, right below my resistance area at 1335.5-1337. We then sold off and are now trading just above the support at 1324.

Gold ~ Update ~ 29 May 2012

2012-05-29T10:30:00.000-04:00

Gold hit the support at 1550ish a second time last week:

Once again the support held and I'm still waiting for a break of 1620ish to turn medium-term bullish.

S&P 500 ~ Support & Resistance ~ 29 May 2012

2012-05-29T09:00:00.000-04:00

FTSE ~ Update ~ 29 May 2012

2012-05-29T05:00:00.000-04:00

A reader asked me whether I could count the FTSE. I tried to do so this morning and many overlapping waves made it actually very difficult to find a nice count.

Below is a bullish possibility which is similar to my bullish SPX count. If we don't decline below last week's low and rally from here then we might see a very bullish second half of 2012.

If the lows don't hold and the FTSE drops further and even below 4800ish things could get bad very quickly:

ES ~ Globex Update ~ 29 May 2012

2012-05-29T03:23:00.001-04:00

The ES is up pretty nicely at the moment and is trading at the resistance at 1328 right now. If 1328 is breached a rally to the huge resistance at 1340-45 is likely:

As you can see in the chart the rally from 1287 looks like a wedge. So despite the 40 handle rally I wouldn't get too bullish yet. I'm still waiting for a break of 1340 (to 45).

USD/JPY ~ Update ~ 25 May 2012

2012-05-25T09:27:00.004-04:00

The USD/JPY is still inside its channel. As you can see in the chart (lower channel lines) the decline has slowed down though :

We're approaching the strong support at 78.25 where I think we'll get a bounce. Before turning medium-term bullish I'd like to see a channel breakout though.

S&P 500 ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 25 May 2012

2012-05-24T19:02:00.002-04:00

I couldn't follow the market today so you can imagine that I was very pleased when I came home to see that the markets hardly moved today.

Above count is still very speculative. What we need is a rally above this week's high at 1328 and then a rally above the 1340ish area. If we get that then the count looks pretty good.

A reader pointed out that we could be in a wave (iv) triangle. If you look at the chart above you can clearly see a potential triangle since Monday. So it's definitely something we have to consider, especially if the market declines tomorrow.

Dow Jones ~ Elliott Wave Count ~ 23 May 2012

2012-05-23T18:07:00.000-04:00

I think I've posted enough SPX counts today so for once I post the EW count for the dow (but it's basically the same for the SPX):

This count is still very speculative. As you can see in the chart we have to break the 12750 area to get confirmation.

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 23 May 2012

2012-05-23T16:22:00.002-04:00

Wow! What a day!

The SPX opened lower today and declined to 1297 by 12:30 pm where it completed five waves down from 1328. From there the market rallied into the close and finished the day at 1319.

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update 2 ~ 23 May 2012

2012-05-23T15:13:00.002-04:00

As mentioned two and a half hours ago in this post it looked like we got five waves down from yesterday's high.

We've now already rallied about 1 % since then and I think we'll know soon which count is underway (see chart).

EUR/USD ~ Update ~ 23 May 2012

2012-05-23T14:27:00.000-04:00

We did get a rally at 1.26 but it was actually not as strong as I thought it would be. We're now below 1.26 and if we don't get a massive end of day rally we'll close below this important support:

S&P 500 ~ Intraday Update ~ 23 May 2012

2012-05-23T12:23:00.000-04:00

Even though we haven't declined below last week's low yet the bearish count, I posted before the open, looks very good now:

It looks like we're about to complete five waves down from yesterday's high. These five waves could either be the complete wave (v) (as shown in the chart) or only wave i of (v). So depending on how the next rally looks like it's either the first or the second count.

AUD/USD ~ Update ~ 23 May 2012

2012-05-23T11:20:00.002-04:00

S&P 500 ~ Pre-Market Warm-Up ~ 23 May 2012

2012-05-23T09:00:00.000-04:00

It's still too early to tell whether 1292 was a medium-term low.

Below you can see two possible counts.

If the SPX rallies above yesterday's high the bullish count is most likely underway. As said earlier though I'd like to see a rally above 1340 before turning bullish.

If the SPX declines below last week's low then above count is underway and a fifth wave down (probably to 1260-70) should follow.

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 22 May 2012

2012-05-22T16:18:00.000-04:00

About forty minutes before the markets closed the SPX broke below 1320, quickly sold off to the support at 1312ish, and then rallied into the close to finish the day virtually unchanged.

S&P 500/ES ~ Intraday Update ~ 22 May 2012

2012-05-22T13:40:00.001-04:00

The ES breached the resistance at 1321 shortly after the SPX opened and then rallied to 1326.5 (SPX 1328.5). We're now back at the breakout level which should be support now.

I was actually about to add a resistance line at last Tuesday's low at 1328.4 in my pre-market chart. I decided not to add it. Today's high is 1328.5 so I probably should have added it... : )

If the low at ~1320 holds I think we could see a rally back to today's high. Else we'll probably drop back to yesterday's close.

S&P 500 ~ Support & Resistance ~ 22 May 2012

2012-05-22T09:00:00.000-04:00

EUR/USD ~ 22 May 2012

2012-05-22T08:07:00.000-04:00

We're already back above 1.28. As said late last week, possible targets are 1.29 and 1.30ish:

ES ~ Globex Update ~ 22 May 2012

2012-05-22T03:51:00.000-04:00

This morning the ES is slightly higher. We're now already approaching my second target at 1321 (SPX 1323). I mentioned yesterday that this level is a pretty strong resistance for the ES. In the chart below you can see why:

If 1321 is breached chances increase that ES 1287.25 was an important low. The next target after 1321 is the 1340-45 area.

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update 2 ~ 21 May 2012

2012-05-21T18:16:00.000-04:00

I mentioned in this post that most medium-term lows were followed by a strong rally. Today's rally was quite strong so 1292 could be a medium-term low.

One up day is not enough though. As you can see in the chart below the strong rallies lasted several days. So, to confirm 1292 being a medium-term low, we need a continuation of today's move for the rest of this and probably next week.

S&P 500 ~ EOD Update ~ 21 May 2012

2012-05-21T16:06:00.000-04:00

After the channel was breached the SPX quickly rallied to the resistance at 1312ish. About an hour before the close this level was finally breached and the rally continued. The SPX closed at 1316, up more than 20 handles.

I'll have more charts later.