Wave Principle

Wave Principle Is Moving — Here’s Where to Find All Future Updates

2025-11-04T05:32:00.000-08:00

If you’ve followed Wave Principle here over the years, thank you.

This blog has been home to a lot of Elliott Wave charts, trade breakdowns, and market commentary — but it’s time to take things to the next level.

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9/11/2024 - EOD Update

2024-09-11T15:27:00.000-07:00

We must Never Forget the lives we have lost in NY, Pentagon, and Flight 93 in PA.

Apologies for not providing recent updates. I have cleaned up the chart to highlight the best count at the moment. The previous bull counts were invalidated.

I think this is a decent interpretation if the move off the July high has been one large corrective consolidation pattern. Wave (C) ends as an expanding diagonal. If the sub-wave count is correct, wave (5) for (C) should be expected.

The next best alternate is a triangle consolidation pattern. I don't have the trendlines drawn in but I think you can figure this out using the rising green trendline as the bottom of the triangle.

I do see another possible count for wave (C) that would be more bearish. This count has this expanding diagonal only as wave 1 of (C), with a larger five wave impulse down breaking below wave (A). I won't go there yet unless the wave (A) low is taken out. Just putting that on the radar in the event the market flushes after the Fed pivots.

8/21/2024 EOD Update

2024-08-21T15:45:00.000-07:00

Just returned from holiday.

Since my last post, I mentioned that the alternate count gained strength and in fact to the point where I have removed the blue primary. The red count is now the primary.

At this point, we shall see if NQ challenges the July 2024 high.

8/8/2024 - EOD Update

2024-08-08T16:07:00.000-07:00

After dropping as expected yesterday, the market staged a bounce that provided additional strength to the red Alt count.

Primary is that wave 2 of (3) is complete or near completion. If wave 2 intends to retrace wave 1 by 62%, it would target 18,800.

Alternate is wave 3 Alt aiming for the 19,000 level where it would equal wave 1 Alt.

8/6/2024 - EOD Update NQ

2024-08-06T14:58:00.000-07:00

NQ continued to bounce higher and reversed just shy of the 50% retracement. The reversal on the 5min looks pretty impulsive.

So lets go with wave 2 of (3) done. One thing I don't note on the chart, which I realized today, is that wave (3) can also be considered complete where I have it labeled as (3)=(1) at the 17351 low. The subsequent bounce from there would be considered wave (4).

At this point its all the same as far as expected next direction and that should be down if we consider wave 2 of (3) or (4) complete. The next leg down should challenge the 17351 low and break through.

If the next leg is wave 3 of (3) down, 3 = 1 @ 16117.

The red Alt count is still in play. In order for this count to remain valid, it cannot break below 17351 and needs to run past today's high to signal wave 3 Alt red up.

8/5/2024 - EOD Update NQ

2024-08-05T17:58:00.000-07:00

The NQ made quick work of blasting through 18305 and continued to drop nearly 1000 handles lower.

Once the market bounced at 17361, I have label that as the completion of wave 1 of (3). The caveat is I did not count the squiggles but it looks like a decent impulse wave.

The bounce should be considered a wave 2 of (3) and is now back testing the 18305 area. Note a 50% retracement would equal 19528.

This is the most bearish count and considered the primary.

However, I would like to make note of the alternate count, which honestly could be considered the primary as well. This count though has a long road ahead in order to be proven correct.

8/2/2024 - NQ Update

2024-08-02T13:18:00.000-07:00

I didn't count the squiggles for wave 1 of (3), but clearly it wasn't done working it's way down yet along with the alternate bearish count. I made a slight adjustment to the WXY alternate count. Zoomed in there is a triangle that formed all day, that may be indicative of a wave 4 to complete wave 1 of (2) or wave c of (Y).

Zoomed in view of the triangle. So let's see what the market brings next week/overnight Sunday. Will there be a flush to 18300s to complete the head and shoulders pattern near a fairly strong support level?

8/1/2024 - NQ Update

2024-08-01T17:54:00.000-07:00

Been a while since I posted counts. I wanted to share the count for the Nasdaq 100 futures (/NQ) because it looks pretty bearish.

The counts, primary and alternate, look bearish. Wave 1 of (3) could be complete near the 18950 support area. If so, a wave 2 of (3) bounce may target 19275-19280, which is a 50% retracement.

/NQ (Nasdaq futures)

The QQQ counts the same.

QQQ

5/23/2023 - BTC Update

2023-05-23T08:48:00.003-07:00

Since my last post I was anticipating a wave [B] bounce. So far looks like wave (a) of [B] has played out.

Wave (b) of [B] in progress. Once (b) is complete, we should anticipate a rally for wave (c) to complete the wave [B] bounce. A 50% retracement of [A] targets ~41-42k.

Daily

12/22/2022 - BTC Update

2022-12-22T05:57:00.004-08:00

I can't believe it has been almost a year since my last post. Hopefully I will find more time one day to post regularly again.

So here is the latest count on BTC. Since my last post, my primary count indicated five waves were complete for wave [5] of {{1}}. With the pullback from the all time high, I counted five waves down to form wave (1).

In the past year, BTC continued its decline in another five wave fashion [ (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5) ] of higher degree to form what I have labeled as wave [A] for the primary count. If wave [A] is complete, we should anticipate a wave [B] bounce somewhere near the 27k-30k range.

The alternate is that either wave [A] may have some more wiggle room below or a larger degree "w-x-y" corrective is playing out. I am not considering the latter so much at the moment unless I see seven waves down.

1/26/2022 - BTC Update

2022-01-26T04:50:00.000-08:00

In my last post, the primary count was that wave [5] was complete. Since then, BTC pulled back from the all time high and formed five waves down I know have labeled as was (1).

The alternate, as previously highlighted is that wave [4] is still developing.

The bullish alternates are still in play but not as likely.

BTC - Daily

11/2/21 - BTC Update

2021-11-02T06:37:00.000-07:00

Based on BTC futures' new closing high, I tweaked the count to account for two more bullish options for BTC.

The primary option:

I see a legitimate five wave count complete with the recent new closing high at 67060 on 10/20/21 to wrap up wave [5]*.

* One concern I have with the count is how to account for the wave structure for wave [4]. Initially I labeled the move as a five wave structure, which it still clearly looks like. For now, I will treat it as a w-x-y corrective.

However, I suspect this leg is not complete so the two options below will help account for a push higher past 67060.

Option 1: Wave (1) of [5] has only completed off the June 2021 low.

Option 2: A more bullish option is that we are still only in wave [3] with wave (3) of [3] yet to come.

Shouldn't be too long from now to see the signal. Either BTC breaks out higher or retreats deeper into the 30,000 - 63000 range to continue forming wave [4].

BTC - Daily

9/30/21 -

2021-09-30T06:17:00.003-07:00

Been a while.Some updates since my last post in May and April.

Since my May update, I was looking for the completion of wave (3) blue. So that looks like that may be the case. The market consolidating up here and near the 200 day moving average (~4120) would be consistent with a wave (4) pullback.

This would also make for a Fib 38.2% retrace of wave (3) as well. So let's keep an eye on the wave structure between the 4545 high and the 200 day moving average.

SPX Daily

Since my last BTC post I was looking for a wave (b) bounce for wave [4]. So far that has occurred and now appears that wave (c) is in progress. Wave (c) can take on any form so will just keep an eye on the range between the wave (b) high and wave (a) low for signs of further corrective consolidation to wrap up wave [4].

BTC Daily

5/21/2021 - EOD Update

2021-05-21T17:37:00.002-07:00

Looks like wave 4 of (3) is in progress or near completiong. Pay attention to the alternate in orange. Perhaps (3) is almost near completion and waiting on it's wave 5 to come very shortly.

4/27/21 - Crypto Anyone?

2021-04-27T06:39:00.004-07:00

[UPDATE] - Lets use our normal charting tools.

BTC- Daily

---

I may start posting counts for BTC/ETH. Let's see how this plays out.

The alternate corrective count is in red.Lets keep an eye on 57k.

BTC - Daily

4/24/21

2021-04-24T06:08:00.005-07:00

No big changes to the count. Still looking for wave 3 of (3) to complete. I did add an alternate count in orange. Near term (see 60 min chart below) looks like a potential triangle playing out forming the basis for a wave four.

SPX - Daily

The possible wave four triangle:

SPX - 60 Min

4/9/21 - EOD Update

2021-04-09T16:33:00.003-07:00

No change. Looks like (iii) of iii of 3 in progress.

SPX - Daily

3/28/21 - Weekend Update

2021-03-28T07:40:00.000-07:00

Since my last post, I left the possibility open that the pull back on 2/5/21 may have been a wave iv for wave 1. Looks like that was the case and with the updated chart below, I have wave 1 and 2 complete with 3 in progress now.

SPX - Daily

2/5/2021 - EOD Update

2021-02-05T18:43:00.001-08:00

Since my last post I was looking for wave c down for wave 2. Looks like we got it as the market pulled back and tested the 50 day moving average and has since made a new all time high.

Seemed a little too quick for me so I will leave room for the possibility that the pull back could have been a wave iv pullback for wave 1 that may not have completed yet. SPX 4k is within reach so we'll see if it gets there first before a larger pullback or just continues to climb higher past 4000.

SPX - Daily

1/28/2021 - EOD Update

2021-01-28T18:43:00.001-08:00

Looks like things are going as planned. Since the last post, I speculated that wave b may bounce and test the underside of the ending diagonal. It did that today and was rejected. Will assume wave c down of 2 is underway.

SPX - Daily

SPX - 60 Min

1/27/2021 - EOD Update

2021-01-27T18:15:00.000-08:00

Looks like the ending diagonal played out as I was suspecting. So far the break down from the ED looks like five little subwaves for wave a of 2. So I expect a wave b bounce may test the underside of the ending diagonal before a wave c down to complete wave 2.

Some targets for wave 2:

1. The 50 day SMA near 3700

2. The 3600-3700 zone testing the breakout area during the Thanksgiving week.

SPX - Daily

Here is the close up of the ED and the mini five subwaves for wave a of 2.

SPX - 60 Min

1/22/2021 - EOD Update

2021-01-22T15:39:00.001-08:00

HNY all. I cleaned up the degree labeling a bit. Looks like there could be an ending diagonal forming to wrap up wave 1 of (3).

SPX - Daily

12/31/2020 - EOD Update

2020-12-31T16:01:00.004-08:00

Good riddance 2020.

Not much to add since my last post. I had a wave 3 in the works and so far that still seems to be playing out. My degrees may be off a bit but too lazy to relabel it. I think wave 1 of (3) is playing out here. So only three waves for 1 of (3) at this point. We'll see, it appears really bullish but that is the count at the moment.

SPX Daily

And a look at the long term monthly chart to cap the year end.

SPX Monthly

Hope everyone has a safe and Happy New Year!

12/2/2020 - EOD Update

2020-12-02T19:13:00.002-08:00

Sorry. Not much to add other than the market confirming the wave (2) flat.

10/29/2020 - EOD Update

2020-10-29T21:07:00.001-07:00

Been a little side tracked. Not too much to add other than a little clean up on the counts. Since my post on 10/12/2020, I laid out two options and I wrote:

Either:

1. Wave 1 of (3) of five will complete all five subwaves i-ii-iii-iv-v

2. wave b of (2) as a flat is near completion and will either reverse near the all-time high here. Keep in mind, there are only three waves up off the September low so far so very much still in play.

Since then a nearly 300 point decline has occurred and with that decline, the 1st option was taken off the table. Option 2 took the pole position so now we'll have to see what type of flat plays out or potentially some type of combo corrective to complete wave (2) of [5].

SPX - 60 Min