Cooler and Windy Today

That departing storm system will leave us with an unusually cool and windy day for late May. Having such a powerful cold front move through this time of year is a little more unusual since there isn’t typically as much cold air in Canada this time of year. The sunshine will gradually help us warm up over the next few days.

Windy Today

The wind speeds should decrease this afternoon and especially overnight tonight. With calm winds and clear skies we will likely see our lows in the 40s again by tomorrow morning.With a calmer wind and mostly sunny skies we should be able to warm up to the low-70s tomorrow.

1-2ft Surf Today

If you are going to be outside at any of the festivals. (Umoja, Pungo Strawberry Festival or the Beach) We should have sunshine. For surfers, there won’t be much surf this weekend and the water temperatures will stay cool until sometime next week when they will warm back up to the low-60s.

A few clouds are possible for Memorial Day, highs will be near 77 for Monday.

Enjoy your weekend!

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson

Williamsburg Flooding

Rain totals in that area were over 5 inches.  Very impressive. However, there were stations not far from there that recorded much less rain.

Rain Totals Yesterday

On top of that, there was a tornado warning for York county around 7:00pm.  There was some rotation and a funnel cloud was reported.  However, I haven’t seen any reports of damage.  There was a report of a wind gust to over 50mph in that area though.  Here was the radar at that time which shows a big notch in the rain.

Notch On The Radar

Around the Southeast, we typically don’t see a classic hook echo during a tornado as we usually have a lot of rain surrounding the storm.  We call that a High Precipitation (HP) supercell.  So we usually see more of a notch than a hook. There have been exceptions like the Hampton tornado from last year.

Today we will see some showers, but they will be much more scattered and lighter in nature.  This is due to two cold fronts moving through the region.  The first front is moving through this morning.  It has already caused a few showers.  Through the day we’ll have partly to mostly cloudy skies with a 20-30% chance for showers.  Highs will be in the in the low 70s, but temps will drop late this afternoon to the 60s.  Winds will pick up out of the northwest gusting to 30mph.  That will be along the 2nd cold front.

Today’s Forecast

Tonight skies will start to clear.  Clouds may hang near the coast.  Where there is clearing, the temps will drop to the low 50s.  Tomorrow high pressure builds in at the surface, but there will be an upper level trough that will hang back for a bit along the coast.  This could give us some lingering clouds in the morning.  Drier weather should push in though and clear us out by the afternoon.  High temperatures will only be near 70 degrees tomorrow.  That’s a big cool for late May, but at least the humidity will be gone.  It will be very dry and breezy.  Winds will be northwest at 10-15mph with gusts up to 25mph.

Dry, Cool, & Breezy Saturday

Sunday and Monday are looking good.  It will be a little cool Sunday morning, but otherwise temps should be nice.  Highs will be in the low/mid 70s Sunday…upper 70s on Monday.  Skies will be mostly to partly sunny.  If we’re lucky, then maybe we’ll warm up to near 80 on Monday.  That would still be with low humidity.

We will develop some more rain Tuesday into Wednesday.

Ok…Yes the National Hurricane Center has put out there seasonal forecast.  In the past I have been very critical of these as I don’t see the value in them.  I even think they have some negative effects as people hear that we will have a set number of hurricanes, and then we either don’t reach that number or the storms stay offshore.  Instead of posting my rant blog about it at this time, I will leave it at that for now.  Rather I’ll keep the focus on the nice upcoming weekend.  Feel free to leave some feedback though. Let me know if that seasonal forecast helps you in any way.  I really would love to hear it, and there is no sarcasm.  Otherwise have a great weekend!

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Super Doppler 10 (7:15am)

The rain will continue to move northward this morning and will produce heavy downpours at times.  There hasn’t been a lot of lightning.  Lightning is more frequent when you have cold weather in the mid-upper levels of the atmosphere (and warm air near the surface).  Today we have warm southerly flow at all levels.  Rain will continue on and off through most of the day.  Temperatures will be near 80 with a strong wind out of the south at 10-15mph with gusts up to 25mph.  This is all out ahead of a strong cold front that is steadily moving closer from the west.

Today’s Forecast

I’m not expecting severe weather today.  Heavy rain will be the main threat with a few thunderstorms.  Winds will already be gusty. So there may be some strong winds around the scattered storms.  Scattered rain showers will continue tonight as the cold front approaches.  By tomorrow the front will slowly work its way through the region.  This will provide for some scattered showers, but not widespread.
It will also be very windy behind the front.  Winds will blow from the northwest at 10-20mph with gusts up to 30mph.  High temps will only be in the low 70s.  It will feel even cooler with those strong winds.

Tomorrow’s Forecast

We will finally dry things out by Friday night.  It will be cool/mild on Saturday and Sunday with highs in the low-mid 70s.  Lows will be in the 50s.  At least it will be dry.  On Monday we’ll warm up just a bit.  Highs will be in the upper 70s with partly cloudy skies.  Overall it still looks like a great weekend ahead.

Here is some news in the world of weather computing.  Apparently the National Weather Service is expecting to dramatically increase its computer power in the next couple of years.   It could put some of our models well ahead of the powerful European model.  Here is the link from Kitsap Sun: NOAA computing power.  Interesting since we just heard about how budget cuts and the sequester would dramatically hurt that same agency.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Estimated Rain Totals

The rain created flooded streets in a few areas.  This was one photo sent in from Christy near Kempsville and Princess Anne Roads in Virginia Beach.

Flooded Street (Virginia Beach)

We’ve had a lot of deep humidity over the last few days.  However, today we have dried out just a little bit in the mid levels.  So we saw a good bit of sunshine this morning across the region.

Satellite/Radar

Notice that the strong storms that were over Oklahoma yesterday have pushed south and east today.  So they will get a chance to resume cleanup and rescue efforts there.  Locally we will be under the influence of weak high pressure.  So we’ll have partly sunny skies with only a slight chance for a shower or storm this afternoon.

Today’s Forecast

Tomorrow the cold front (shown above) will move into western Virginia and North Carolina.  We’ll see a good chance for showers and storms out ahead of it.  We’ll still be warm tomorrow with highs in the low 80s.  Then the front will finally move through here Friday morning.  That will give us more rain, but then we’ll really start to dry things out by Friday afternoon.  Highs on Friday through the weekend will be in the low-mid 70s.  Lows will be in the 50s Saturday morning through Monday morning.  The big thing is that we will really dry things out for the entire Memorial Day weekend.  It should feel great.  This is typically the time of year where we get the warmer weather, but the deep humidity doesn’t sit over the area for a long time.  That usually comes in late June or early July.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Moore, OK Tornado (NWS graphic)

Notice that the damage survey is still ongoing, so additional information will be coming in over the next few days, as they have a lot of distance to cover. A report put out by the National Weather Service says that the tornado initially produced EF-0 & EF-1 damage. The tornado intensified so quickly that it produced EF-4 damage about 10 minutes later.

Reminder: The National Weather Service in Wakefield will be holding a Basic SKYWARN class tomorrow (Wednesday) at 6PM at the Norfolk EOC. This class is free and if you attend, you will become a trained severe weather spotter. I highly recommend attending if you are interested in meteorology or just like to learn about thunderstorms. Click here for more information on how to register.

Meteorologist: Tiffany Savona

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Severe Weather Reports

One tornado in particular hit Moore, Oklahoma which is just south of Oklahoma City.  This tornado destroyed a large part of the town including two schools.  The latest official death toll that I saw was 24, but it was still rising.  This is going to be the next in a list of historic tornadoes.  At this time it looks like it was an EF-4 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale.  After looking at the damage, I wouldn’t be surprised if it gets classified as an EF-5.  The National Weather Service will be out surveying today to determine the ultimate strength of the tornado.  That same area had been hit by two other large tornadoes in the last 15 years.  The first one was the infamous Oklahoma City tornado in May of 1999.  That was one of the strongest tornadoes recorded in the United States.  It’s winds were estimated between 300 and 318mph.  There was also a lesser known tornado that passed through the region in 2003.  Now a 3rd tornado has struck nearly in the same place.  There is a great map of the 3 paths of these storms from Steve Baron at KFOR.  I won’t post the photo since it is theirs, but here is the link: Oklahoma tornado paths.   The radar from yesterday showed some storms blowing up in the mid-afternoon near Newcastle and they quickly developed a classic hook echo.

Hook Shape On Radar

The red line is the highlight.  A hook echo forms when rain literally wraps into and around the storm.  Sometimes debris also wraps in.  This reflects a lot of energy back to the radar which shows up as a bright spot.  Through the afternoon the storms moved northeast and eventually weakened.

The setup out there is different from here.  Yesterday they had a cold front slowly move in from the northwest.  It was along/ahead of this front where the storms were focused.  Today that front is stalled out.  So the focus will be more towards southern Oklahoma, Texas, and Arkansas.  Also, as I mentioned yesterday, they have had strong upper level winds to support the threat for severe weather.  We have not. In fact we have weak high pressure just offshore.  Although there has been a weak pocket of energy in the mid-levels lately.

Regional Weather Pattern

From here to there though there has been a decent amount of humidity.  Dew points have been in the 60s for three days.  This warmth and moisture has led to a good amount of instability.  Yesterday we had some real downpours during the midday and early afternoon.  We could see the same today.

Future Trak This Afternoon

We’ll see scattered showers with a few thunderstorms from late morning onward.  Heavy rain will be the main threat.  Highs will be in the low 80s.  Tomorrow that little pocket of energy looks to push out.  So I only have a slight chance for a shower or storm tomorrow as the high will have a little more influence on our weather.  Thursday into Friday a cold front will move into the region.  This will produce a higher chance for rain and storms.  Luckily that front is expected to clear us out for the weekend.  For now we are looking at partly cloudy skies from Saturday through Monday.  Lower humidity and highs in the 70s are expected too.  That’s a bit of good news after seeing the devastation in Oklahoma.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Severe Weather Reports

This morning things settled down for a bit, but showers and storms will grow here and there this afternoon.

Morning Satellite/Radar

The big difference between here and there is the upper level winds.  There are strong upper level winds over the Plains today which will provide support for more severe storms.  Meanwhile, we have weak upper level winds.  So we may see some heavy rain and a few strong storms, but we lack the potential for severe weather.  We do have a lot of humidity around here.  It isn’t off the charts, but it is moderate to high.

Dew Points (Moisture)

So today we will be warm and humid with some scattered showers and storms popping up this afternoon. Highs will be in the low 80s.  Tomorrow we’ll see much of the same.  On Wednesday it looks like the chance for rain lessens a bit.  Then late Thursday into Friday we’ll pick up the rain chances again as a cold front approaches from the west.  If this front moves through and clears the area, then we may be in for a treat next weekend.  At the moment I’m calling for partly cloudy skies and highs in the 70s for Saturday and Sunday. However, some of the models hint at a few showers on Sunday.  The front could stall out near the region.  If that happens then we’ll have to update the forecast.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Severe Weather in the Central Plains

I captured this satellite/radar image around 8 PM, where tornado warnings were still in effect across parts of Oklahoma, Kansas and Iowa. Check out the 24-hour storm reports.

24-Hour Storm Reports

There is a legend at the top of the graphic. The red dots indicate all of the tornado reports over the past 24 hours. Major tornado damage was reported east of Oklahoma City. Homes were demolished and people were ejected from their cars. Fatalities and numerous injuries have been reported. Debris was thrown miles ahead of the storm due to the very strong upper levels winds in the atmosphere. Luckily for us, this strong storm system will weaken significantly as it brings a cold front our way by the end of the week.

Scattered showers will continue to push through Hampton Roads tonight, but the activity should quiet down after midnight.

9:10 PM Satellite/Radar

A stray shower will be possible Monday morning with much better chances for showers and storms during the afternoon hours. These showers and storms will be hit or miss, so some folks will see the rain while others will not. These showers/storms tend to fire up during the peak heating hours late in the day. We will have plenty of moisture in place. Dew points are in the mid/upper 60s! Dew points are an indication of how much moisture is in the air. When these numbers are in the mid/upper 60s, like they are now, it will feel extremely humid outside.

Dew points

It is hard to pinpoint exactly where the rain will develop because we will not have any surface features or boundaries that will spark off the showers and storms in one particular area. With cold air aloft, warm air at the surface and lots of moisture in place, showers and storms could pop up anywhere in Hampton Roads. Here are your Monday rain chances:

Monday Rain Chances

Don’t expect Monday to be a wash-out. Rain will be very scattered during the afternoon and evening hours. Best advice is to keep your umbrella on stand-by the next couple of days.

-Meteorologist Tiffany Savona

Rain Totals At 9am

I got a report of over 2.25″ from a weather watcher in Smithfield. Our weather watcher on the Eastern Shore received 0.25″ of rain this morning. More rainfall is possible this Saturday as we have a weak upper-level low in place.

Scattered Showers

Future Trak @ 5

If you are going to one of the many outdoor events today grab the umbrella. You can use it either as a walking stick or as a way to keep you dry. The best chance for seeing showers will be this afternoon. Some sunshine is also possible today with highs reaching 76 this afternoon. Tomorrow the stationary boundary will slowly lift north which will keep areas to the south dry.

Future Trak Tomorrow @ 6am

The stationary front keeps the energy and upward motion in place, so the chance for seeing blue skies is small this weekend. The front with continue to shift north and south tomorrow, so basically, once again we could see scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Weekend Rain Chances, Higher in the Afternoon.

Keep and eye on Super Doppler 10 in the afternoon for today and tomorrow as we could see more thunderstorms across Hampton Roads. Stay dry!

Meteorologist Jeff Edmondson

Storm Last Night

My weather watcher Barry in Gloucester had his deck umbrella blow off and go into his yard.  There were also some scattered power outages (briefly).  Today a weak boundary (cool front) is moving in from the north.  Yesterday’s strong breeze was from an outflow boundary coming off of the storms.  This cool front will move in and stall out over our inland and southern sections.  So that is where we will see a few showers popping up today.

Today’s Forecast

I don’t expect any rain near the shore, and only a slim chance for a stray shower in the metro.  So we have good weather if you are headed to the Greek Festival today in Norfolk.  Tonight a batch of showers and storms will form along the front and then move into Hampton Roads.  There may even be a few strong storms in the area.  This will continue into tomorrow morning.  The high resolution models (including Future Trak) are in agreement on rain showers in the morning and lesser chances in the afternoon.

Future Trak Saturday morning

Here’s the view from our model in the afternoon.

Future Trak Saturday afternoon.

The GFS model still has rain in the afternoon, but I’m hoping that the lower resolution is just connecting the dots and overdoing it.  Now I say that, but I actually need some rain in my yard.  I know though that If we miss the Saturday morning rain somehow, then we still have a decent shot at rain Sunday and Monday.  The models have been varying on the coverage for those days, but I think we have at least a 50% shot for both of them.

Rain Chances

These rain chances will impact the Beer festival, the Chesapeake Jubilee, and the Stockley Gardens arts festival in Norfolk. Oh and the Potato Festival in North Carolina as well as the Touch a Truck event on the Peninsula.

As far as temps go…today we will see a little cool down with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.  Remember yesterday we were in the low 90s.  Winds will be northeast at 10mph.  Tomorrow the cooler weather will settle in a little more.  So highs will be in the mid 70s with easterly winds at 10mph.

Tomorrow’s Forecast

Rain will continue on Monday, but will taper off by Tuesday.  At least we don’t see any huge cool downs over the next 7 days.  We’ll probably be tweaking the rain chances as we go into the weekend.  Meteorologists Don Slater, Jeff Edmondson, and Tiffany Savona will have updates that you will want to catch between tonight and tomorrow.  Either way I hope you have a good weekend.

Meteorologist: Jeremy wheeler