By Thursday into Friday high pressure moves off to the east, this will allow winds to become more southerly which will bring warming temperatures as we head into the weekend. Temperature will become more summer like as highs are expected to rise into the upper 80′s to near 90 degrees!

Rain chances will increase slightly for both Saturday and Sunday because of the very warm temperatures and increasing humidity. But these will be isolated because high pressure is still in control. Since high pressure is associated with sinking air this will suppress the thunderstorm activity from becoming too widespread.

-Jonathan

I do have a rain-gauge varification from Springboro, where my Weatherchecker, Bonnie, reports 1.2″ at 7:30am… and it is still raining.  There have been flood advisories issued for these areas this AM, for ponding water and low-lying spots that could see a bit more than ponding.  We have an area of low pressure south of us, helping to kick this activity off early on.  It will taper off in the late morning/early afternoon as the feature moves east of the area.

A weak front is draped in the region again today, and with upper level energy approaching during our peak-heating hours:

… this is the recipe for additional showers and thunderstorms later today.  There is the potential for some of them to become strong or severe, with winds over 60mph and even some hail possible.  The SPC has a good portion of the Miami Valley in an Elevated Risk for severe storms:

The best chance for this will be after 2pm this afternoon, as we reach the lower 80s for highs.  The rain chance continues into the evening, so a few spotty thunderstorms may impact the Midwest All Star Game at Fifth-Third Field.  The trend will be for these storms to shift south and taper off as we head into the later evening and overnight hours.  High pressure moves in for Wednesday through Friday, bringing in less humid air and lots of sunshine.

Jamie
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With the rain we saw last week and over the weekend, we’ve caught up quite a bit to where we should be this time of year.  Still need to see the rain every few days to stay in a good spot–the yearly deficit continues:

A front is stalling in the region today, and already this morning we’ve had a few isolated showers along this boundary.  Most of the activity has been north of I-70, but the showers have been few and far between.  We will continue to carry about a 10-20% chance of a shower/thunderstorm through the day, but most locations will stay dry, with little forcing.  The best chance for any rain will be close to the boundary, as it ends up drifting south of Dayton.  After morning fog lifts, we will see plenty of sunshine today as we climb into the mid-80s for highs.  Our UV Index is very high:

Another front drops in for Tuesday, bringing a slightly higher rain chance to the area.  We have a 30% chance for a few spotty showers or thunderstorms with this feature:

This second front will also bring in *slightly* cooler air.  Tuesday’s high will be near 80-degrees, and on Wednesday we’ll only hit the upper 70s, for below-normal readings in the afternoon.  Still, pleasantly warm and we expect a lot of sunshine for the middle part of the week, too!  This will be a watering week, for sure, as the next rain chance doesn’t appear until next weekend.

Jamie
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I hope you had a wonderful day as well.  We did see some rain across the area.  This morning we picked up about a tenth to quarter of an inch in most locations.

We still have a lot of clouds around however we’ll see skies become partly cloudy overnight and into early Monday morning.

We’ll see partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies for much of Monday.  It will be slightly humid with highs in the lower to middle 80′s.

There’s a slight chance for a few showers or thunderstorms to develop late in the day Monday and these may linger into early Tuesday morning.  But most of the day Monday will be dry.

Temperatures will cool a bit on Tuesday.  Humidity values will drop as well.

High pressure builds across the Miami Valley for the middle part of the week meaning lots of sunshine and highs near 80.

Have a wonderful week!
Tara
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There are a few showers popping on Live Doppler 2HD right now and they will continue to be scattered overnight as well.  There’s another chance for rain on Father’s Day as a cold front that is off to our west moves east Sunday.

While Father’s Day won’t be a complete wash out there will be on and off showers throughout the day.  If you have any outdoor plans the best chance of squeezing those in would be later in the afternoon/early evening hours.

Showers will come and go in waves late tonight and throughout the day tomorrow.  Here’s a look at our Futuretrac forecast model.  We’ll see one wave of showers around midnight then another one around 7/8am Sunday.

We’ll get a bit of a break before another round of showers pushes through around noon.

As the afternoon wears on the chance of showers diminishes and the coverage becomes more scattered.

On Monday there’s still a slight chance for a few showers but they will be widely scattered.

The storms that moved through late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning did produce two very weak tornadoes in the northern part of the Miami Valley.  Two EF-0 tornadoes hit Mercer and Augalize counties.

To see some of the damage  click here
The National Weather Service information is available here

Information on tornado in New Knoxville Auglaize Co
Information on tornado in Rockford Mercer Co.

Tara
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We also had  many wind damage reports from the thunderstorm complex–that spanned two days.  Northern counties saw it first, followed by areas south of town:

And VERY heavy rain.  Take a look at totals:

Now high pressure is building in, so we are getting ready for a pretty fantastic Friday as cooler and less humid air is moving into the region.  Expect a good deal of sunshine through the first part of the day, with a few afternoon clouds at times.  We will top out just below normal–near 77-degrees (normal high is 80).  Saturday also looks dry, and a little warmer… but the rain chance returns late Saturday night into Sunday.  We will be dodging scattered showers and thunderstorms on Father’s Day, but it does not look like a wash-out at this point.  I hope all the dads out there have a great day!!

Jamie
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Most of the daylight hours will be dry in a good part of the Miami Valley.  A warm front will be north of us… and there will be the potential for a few thunderstorms to pop in our northern counties, closer to this boundary:

Any of them could be strong to severe, and the SPC has most of the Miami Valley in a MODERATE risk for severe weather:

The chance for thunderstorms (and severe weather) spreads south as we head through the evening and into the overnight hours.  So Dayton may not see any rain until tonight as thunderstorms form into a complex to our northwest and then dive our way.  Here is just one model solution as to what the radar may look like around 2am:

The main threat is damaging winds in excess of 60 mph.  Our secondary threats would be large hail… and isolated tornadoes.  We also have the potential for very heavy rain, which  may cause some localized flooding.  Be weather aware today–northern counties this afternoon/evening… the rest of the Miami Valley this evening/overnight.  And overnight severe weather is the worst kind, because you don’t know it’s coming when you’re sleeping.  Be sure the NOAA weather radio is on… so it can alert you/wake you if any storms roll in.  Sign up for text alerts, and turn your phone up, as this can be another notification: WDTN Text Alerts

Thursday will start off with rain and thunder–some of which could be heavy at times.  Then we should dry out through the afternoon hours.  The winds increase, so get ready for a gusty day, and it won’t be as warm, with highs in the upper 70s.  It will also be turning less humid, which will set us up for a really nice ending to the week!

Stay with us today on-air and online–we will keep you posted on the weather situation throughout the day!
Jamie
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The UV Index is high–a 9 on the scale–which means unprotected fair skin will burn in 15-20 minutes.  Be sure to put on the SPF 30+ and reapply it every couple of hours.  Hats, sunglasses, and shade are all good ideas today!  Let’s take a look at the surface/temperature map this morning:

There’s the high that will bring us the nice day… and there’s the cold front leaving the area.  That was the feature that brought us all the rain yesterday.  Some spots that got a heavier downpour in a thunderstorm saw over an inch of rain!  But most did not:

But now we are high and dry.  On the back side of the high, there is a warm front.  This will affect us on Wednesday–bringing in even warmer air.  We will climb into the upper 80s mid-week, and it’s going to feel more humid.  This also brings in a chance of thunderstorms… some of which could be strong to severe.  We are still in an elevated risk for severe storms, and actually a portion of the northern Valley is in a “hatched” area–higher likelihood of strong storms up that way:

Strong winds will be the main threat followed by hail and isolated tornadoes, and the timing looks best for late afternoon and evening.  Overnight, there is the potential for any activity to form into a larger thunderstorm complex.  This would increase the potential for flooding across the area, with heavy rain possible.  We will keep an eye on the situation as it unfolds, and keep you posted of any watches or warnings.  Stay with us on WDTN Channel 2!

In other news… a really cool (actually HOT) weather phenomenon occurred last night/early this morning in Hastings, Nebraska.  Take a look at the observed temperatures…

That’s a fairly rare thing called a “heat burst”.  You go to bed and it’s in the 70s… and you wake up and it’s nearly 100!  Amazing.  What happens is explained by one of my old meteorology instructors here:  HEAT BURSTS.

Have a good one,
Jamie
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Then it looks like we will see a break in the activity for the early afternoon (lunchtime and beyond)… before the chance for more showers/t’storms later in the day:

When we get into the “lull”… we could even see a bit of sunshine, and we do have a very high UV Index.  SO while you will need the umbrella at times today, don’t forget the sunblock   Our highs today will be a bit cooler than yesterday, as we reach the mid-upper 70s.

Any spotty showers taper off overnight, and Tuesday looks like a dry day with high pressure building in briefly.  Temperatures will respond, and climb back into the lower 80s Tuesday afternoon.  On Wednesday, we could experience the warmest day of the week, with highs possibly in the mid-upper 80s!  This will be dependent on clouds and rain chances.  Right now, there’s a chance for a complex to develop and move in during the evening hours… and being with us overnight.  We will have to keep an eye on this… there is the potential for some damaging winds, if it all comes together.  The SPC does have us in an Elevated Risk Wednesday into Thursday:

And it looks wet through the first part of Thursday, as well.  More on this event as we get closer.

Jamie
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Big thanks to Shane for taking care of chef duties.  The rain held off and the weather was just right.  It wasn’t too hot or too cold thanks to cloudy skies.  We did see some sun at times but the clouds really helped to keep it comfortable.

Right now we’re seeing some showers across portions of the area.  Here’s a look at the radar at 6pm

This batch is light and moving from the south to the north.  There’s another line of showers off to our west that will eventually head this way overnight.

Here’s what it looks like will happen.  Right now the light rain will move northward, we’ll get a break and then we’ll see another round of rain overnight through the Monday morning commute.    As the day wears on Monday rain becomes much more scattered.  Here’s what I am thinking:

Temperatures will be a touch cooler Monday due to the cloudy skies and rainfall. Today despite the clouds we did make it up to 82.

Keep the umbrella handy for Monday morning and through the early part of the afternoon.

By Monday evening for the drive home it looks much better.

Tuesday looks great with mostly sunny skies and highs in the lower 80′s.

The sunny skies won’t last long there’s another chance for some showers Wednesday night.  We’ll continue to track the chance of rain for the middle of the week.

Tara

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