Weather Droppings - Is Pooh in Your Forecast?

Tornado Warning

noreply@blogger.com (Brent Williams) — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 23:12:00 +0000

The National Weather Service issues Tornado Warning for Calhoun, Clay, Cleburne, Talladega [AL] till 7:00 PM CDT ...* AT 604 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO NEAR ALPINE...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHILDERSBURG. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

Moderate Risk of Severe Weather Friday

noreply@blogger.com (Brent Williams) — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 16:14:00 +0000

The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of Central Alabama under a Moderate Risk of Severe Weather for Friday. Convective Outlook update placed most of central and western Alabama as well as eastern Mississippi in a *MODERATE* Risk of severe weather tomorrow. The most eye-catching statement in their discussion is this statement:

…TORNADO OUTBREAK BECOMING INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT…

What imbeciles are writing these temperature forecast?

noreply@blogger.com (Brent Williams) — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 16:22:00 +0000

Folks, it is not going to get to 60F today. Forecast from the NWS and local meteorologist have forecasted highs today in the upper 50's and up to 60F. At 10am CST the current temperatures in Central Alabama are in the low 40's. Cloud cover will remain in place throughout the day. It's not going to get that warm.

What idiots are publishing these temperature forecast? I would say that its time to get your head out of the computer models and look around you.

Yesterday we had a forecast high in the mid 50's. The high at my location was 41F.

Today's temperature forecast seems way off. I would keep your jacket with you today.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning Calhoun/St. Clair

noreply@blogger.com (Brent Williams) — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 21:11:00 +0000

The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... southern Calhoun County in east central Alabama... St. Clair County in central Alabama... northern Talladega County in east central Alabama until 400 PM CST. At 303 PM CST the National Weather Service indicated a line of severe thunderstorms capable of producing Golf Ball size hail and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. These storms were located along a line extending from Ashville to Barber motorsports park and moving east at 60 mph. Golf Ball size hail has been reported at several locations with these storms.
Locations impacted include... Pell City...Saks...fort McClellan...Jacksonville...west end-Cobb Town...Cobb Town...Anniston and Oxford. This includes...Interstate 20 exit numbers 144 through 188...Interstate 59 exit number 166.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect for the warned area. Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. Although not immediately likely...if a tornado is spotted...act quickly and move to a place of safety inside a sturdy structure...such as a basement or small interior room.

New Tornado Watch Issued

noreply@blogger.com (Brent Williams) — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 19:16:00 +0000

The National Weather Service has issued Tornado Watch 33 in effect until 7 PM CST this evening for the following areas.

In Alabama this watch includes 29 counties.
In central Alabama:
Autauga Bibb Blount Chilton Coosa Dallas Elmore Jefferson Lowndes Montgomery Perry Shelby St. Clair Talladega

In east central Alabama
Calhoun Chambers Clay Cleburne Lee Randolph Tallapoosa

In northeast Alabama
Cherokee Etowah

In west central Alabama
Greene Hale Marengo Pickens Sumter Tuscaloosa

Severe Weather Possible Today

noreply@blogger.com (Brent Williams) — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 15:01:00 +0000

You've undoubtably noticed the warm muggy feel of the air outside this morning. With an approaching storm system, dewpoints already in the 60's across Alabama, and strong southernly winds, the ingredients will be coming together for possible severe weather across the state.

At 9am CST, the first Severe Thunderstorm Warning for the state was issued for portions of Colbert and Lauderdale counties in Northwest Alabama.

Portions of Northwest Alabama are also under a Tornado Watch. I would expect that watch area to be extended into the central and eastern areas of Alabama later this morning.

The greatest risk of severe weather in Northeast Alabama will occur after lunch today.

Snowfall Potential Wednesday

noreply@blogger.com (Brent Williams) — Tue, 08 Feb 2011 16:27:00 +0000

As of the this morning, the NWS in Birmingham has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Wednesday into Thursday morning. At this point based on model data, probably a little overkill, but with any potential snowfall event in Alabama, expect surprises. I am inserting the snowfall potential graphic from the NWS and as think it frames up this storm's potential nicely.

Expect a dusting up to 2" across central Alabama with higher totals in the northern counties.

On a good note, after this storm system passes, expect a warming trend over the weekend. Can you say 60F by Sunday!

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
512 AM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
BRING THE CHANCE OF SNOW TO MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH REGARDS TO SPECIFIC SNOWFALL TOTALS...ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND
TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND BEGIN ACCUMULATING BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. TOTAL ACCUMULATION AROUND TWO INCHES IS EXPECTED...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. AS SNOW INCREASES IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...AND TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING...TRAVEL
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS. A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.

Winter Storm Watch for Northern Counties - Snowfall Potential

noreply@blogger.com (Brent Williams) — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 00:05:00 +0000

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL

311 PM CST MON JAN 24 2011

…LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING…

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SYSTEM ON TUESDAY…AND GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

Counties in Watch Area:
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN -LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-

…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* TIMING AND AREAS AFFECTED: RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA…AND THEN GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
* ACCUMULATIONS: TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND TWO TO FOUR INCHES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED. HOWEVER…SOME HEAVIER NARROW BANDING OF SNOW MAY OCCUR…WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH SPECIFIC SNOW AMOUNTS STILL EXISTS.
* OTHER HAZARDS: GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WILL AFFECT NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF ALABAMA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT…AND THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACTS: SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT…AND CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND ICE ON AREA ROADS…GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SOME SNOW WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW…SLEET…OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

Update: Pending Strom System

noreply@blogger.com (Brent Williams) — Mon, 24 Jan 2011 20:47:00 +0000

I now think the developing storm system to our west will bring a good supply of rain to us on Tuesday. Temperatures today have warmed into the upper 50's and it looks like we will be to warm for anything other than rain on Tuesday.
Early Wednesday morning as a cold core upper level low makes its way across Alabama, there will be a chance that the rain will change over to snow showers during the morning and afternoon. The system will move out late Wednesday and leave us with cool temperatures.

At this point, any accumulation looks minimal and even if we get some heavier snow showers, surface temperatures will be above freezing and travel should not be a concern.

More Winter Weather Next Week

noreply@blogger.com (Brent Williams) — Sat, 22 Jan 2011 17:35:00 +0000

The dreadfulness of this winter's cold has finally broken my silence. With temperatures consistently remaining below normal and plenty of storm systems to track, this winter may go down in history as one of the coldest and snowiest on record.

December 2010 has already inked its place in history as one of the top 5 coldest. And January looks to be on track to match that mark across the deep South. And for those who think you've had enough.....

Next week, weather models are again showing a winter event across the south on Tuesday. With this event only 84 hours out, confidence is increasing that the deep South will again experience some type of winter storm.

Here is the NAM model output for 6pm Tuesday evening. As you can see the model shows a deepening surface low in south AL ushering in cold air. Sometimes the recipe for significant snows in Alabama.

We will wait and see. Until then, I can at least long for the warmer days of spring....

Winter Storm Watch

noreply@blogger.com (Brent Williams) — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 21:02:00 +0000

...Winter Storm Watch in effect from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning...  The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a Winter Storm Watch...which is in effect from Sunday afternoon through noon Monday.  Accumulating snow is possible across all of central Alabama starting around noon Sunday and continue through Monday morning. Accumulations will range between 2 inches or less across the south to 4 to 7 inches along the north..with higher amounts across higher terrain.  In addition...snow will transition into freezing rain across the southern half portions of central Alabama. Ice accumulation could be as high as one quarter of an inch.  A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant snow...sleet...or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

Another Winter Storm? What is going on in the South...

noreply@blogger.com (Brent Williams) — Fri, 07 Jan 2011 14:45:00 +0000

...Confidence in a winter weather event across central Alabama the
beginning of the week continues to increase...
A cold upper level trough over the eastern United States and an
active southern jet stream continue to set the stage for another
winter weather event across central Alabama Sunday and Monday. A
surface low will form in the northern Gulf of Mexico...pulling
moisture northward and cold air southward as it tracks toward
northwest Florida. Confidence is increasing that central Alabama
will see a variety of wintry precipitation starting as early as
Sunday morning across southwest Alabama...spreading across all of
central Alabama during the day. The wintry mix is expected to last
through Monday night.
Although uncertainty exists with the exact path and strength of this
system...both snow and freezing rain are expected. Based on current
forecast information...the highest snowfall accumulation will be
north of Interstate 20...where one to two inches is possible.
Elsewhere...a dusting to one half inch is possible with ice
accumulation of less than one tenth inch. Any change in track and
strength could result in significant changes to precipitation type
and accumulation totals.

Historic White Christmas

noreply@blogger.com (Brent Williams) — Sat, 25 Dec 2010 18:24:00 +0000

A historic white Christmas is underway across the deep south. Here in Central Alabama anywhere from a dusting to 2" has fallen.

Special Weather Statement for Anniston, AL

noreply@blogger.com (Brent Williams) — Thu, 23 Dec 2010 03:29:00 +0000

Special Weather Statement as of 8:43 PM CST on December 22, 2010

...Snow possible between Friday night and Christmas night...

A strong storm system will begin moving southeast towards the Gulf
Coast over the next three days...bringing the threat of snow to
most of central Alabama...generally between midnight Saturday and
midnight Sunday.

Confidence has steadily increased that portions of central Alabama
will experience measurable snowfall at some point during this
winter weather event. The precipitation may begin as rain late
Friday night...transitioning to all snow by Christmas day and
evening. As cold air filters in with the system...the expected
changeover will begin in the northwest before sunrise and steadily
move southeast through the day...changing over to snow in the
southeast closer to sunset.

Based on the current forecast information...many areas will see
anywhere from a dusting to perhaps several inches of snow on
Christmas day. However...many uncertainties remain with regards
to this forecast...and certainly the moisture amounts...timing and placement...and
strength of the system are still large and looming questions.
These uncertainties and smaller scale features will directly
affect snow accumulations for the entire area. As new information
is introduced...the forecast will change and snow amounts will be
updated.

Current Conditions Unavailble - Lightning Pays a Visit

noreply@blogger.com (Brent Williams) — Thu, 06 May 2010 03:50:00 +0000

Just wanted to alert all who may notice that the current weather conditions from my weather station are not reporting. Unfortunately, during the storms this past Sunday, my property was the recipient of a mean old lightning strike. These things seems to remind me how powerful a lightning strike can be.
The lightning appears to have hit a tree in my front yard, traveled down one of its roots, and exited out of the ground approx. 15 feet from my front door via a big hole. Until now, I can't say that I have ever heard of lightning blowing a hole in the ground.
As a result, I managed to lose a computer, a Wii gaming system (kids are not happy), plugs, and a few lights. Minor damage considering what it could have been.
Even though our home did not take a direct hit, it managed to raise the garage door, ring the door bell, set off the alarm system, and turn on my daughters Barbie computer (its battery powered).

So if I was ever in doubt on whether lightning was a dangerous creature, it rang my door bell for crying out loud!

Weather Droppings Pile of Pooh Warning

noreply@blogger.com (Brent Williams) — Sat, 24 Apr 2010 21:27:00 +0000

When flooding becomes the headline story on the news today, you can guess that the much advertised severe weather outbreak has not occurred.

The NWS issuance of a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) along with a High Risk for Severe Weather seems to excited the masses prematurely. Therefore, I am now issuing a.....

Weather Droppings Pile of Pooh Warning - Today's Severe weather event may not unfold as advertised.

With heavy rain most of the day and dewpoints in the low 60's a major severe weather outbreak now seems unlikely. One last line of storms will pass through the area tonight, bringing heavy rain, lightning, and winds. But this should not go down in records books as a major severe weather outbreak.

I will caution everyone to not let their guard down. There have been significant storms in Mississippi and Louisiana today with damage reported. Strong storms have also affected the western counties in Alabama. Continue to stay aware of current weather warnings throughout the night. Severe thunderstorms with possible tornadoes are still possible....

But it looks like Central Alabama for the moment has dodged any significant dangerous weather situations today and our Weather forecasters once again are reminded how much is not understood about mother nature.

Tornado Watch - Severe Weather Risk High

noreply@blogger.com (Brent Williams) — Sat, 24 Apr 2010 13:05:00 +0000

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 93

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

800 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA MIDDLE TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 800 AM UNTIL 200 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER... THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF NASHVILLE TENNESSEE TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF SELMA ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS OVER MS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO AL AND MIDDLE TN THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH SCATTERED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL BE INITIALLY ELEVATED...BUT RAPID DESTABILIZATION WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF TORNADOES BY LATE MORNING. VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES ALSO SUPPORT A RISK OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.

Storm System on the Way - Severe Weather Possible Saturday

noreply@blogger.com (Brent Williams) — Fri, 23 Apr 2010 16:07:00 +0000

Tornadoes are possible across central Alabama on Saturday and Saturday night.

A strong storm system will bring the possibility of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes to central Alabama from around noon Saturday till midnight Saturday night. Now is the time to prepare for the possibility of severe weather.

All modes of severe weather will be possible including tornadoes, damaging wind, hail, and localized flooding. Although isolated storms will be possible by 9am Saturday morning in West Alabama, the greatest risk will be noon to midnight. Breezy conditions can be expected ahead of the front Saturday and behind the cold front Sunday. Sustained winds between 10 - 20 MPH will be expected.

Talledega race forecast: It will be very difficult to get the Aaron’s 312 in tomorrow due to the rain and storms, but the weather will be fine for Sunday’s Aaron’s 499 with a partly sunny sky and a high around 80. Needless to say, there is great concern with a potential severe weather event of this magnitude ahead and the thousands of campers in place on the grounds around the Talladega Superspeedway. Everybody that is camping will need to be very aware of severe weather watches and warnings tomorrow, and have a plan of action in place in the event tornado warnings are issued for northern Talladega County.

Inaugural Weather Droppings Pooh Warning...

noreply@blogger.com (Brent Williams) — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 14:17:00 +0000

I really couldn't let this past weather forecasting blunder pass without issuing the inaugural Weather Droppings Pile of Pooh Warning for this past Sunday night/Monday.

As you recall the forecast called for 2-4" of snow Sunday night into Monday from a clipper system moving south across the central plains. All the models painted snow as it seemed sufficient cold air was to be in place. Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories were posted during the morning hours Sunday. As the day wore on Sunday, high temperatures reached the lower 50's and subsequently rain fell as the system swept through Alabama. The cold air that was forecasted lagged behind the frontal system and we only saw a brief changeover to snow (literally a few snowflakes).

So what happened and why should we be upset at the weather forecasters?
First, I think the reality is these people forget to look out the window. We seem to solely rely on what computer models tell us will happen instead of looking out to see what is actually happening.
Second, I notice an unwillingness to quickly modify the weather forecast when a miss is imminent. Early Sunday night, it was obvious by looking at radar and surface temperatures in Mississippi that the event was unfolding as a mostly rain event. Why would the meteorologist on shift at the National Weather Service not adjust the forecast and cancel the warnings. The warnings did get cancelled, but not until the event was practically over around 3am Monday morning. By changing the forecast, would it make the forecaster feel like he/she was wrong and they are better suited to ride it out?
Third, we need accountability in the weather offices. Its ok to miss forecasts. We must first realize what we don't know. Missing the forecast and sticking to your blown forecast is ignorance. The people in these positions should be held accountable for adjusting the weather forecast promptly based on what is happening outside the window.

Lastly, we need to do a shout out to the local school administrators. Since when did it become normal practice to adjust school schedules based on weather forecast? When I was in school, we let out when the event started unfolding and it appeared necessary. Now we are cancelling classes based on what may happen. What is the risk of waiting on making a school closure decision? Getting snowed in? I am unaware of any documented cases of students and teachers becoming stranded at school and freezing or starving to death. The worse thing that can happen is they have to stay at school a little later.

New Contrarian Direction for Weather Droppings

noreply@blogger.com (Brent Williams) — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 15:49:00 +0000

I've decided to move this site a different direction. Instead of discussing what the weather is going to do, we shall:

We shall talk about what the weather is not going to do - Its ok to be unsure.
We shall be upfront about the things we just don't know or understand about the weather.
We shall point out when the "weather person" is wrong.
We shall understand that mother nature is larger than us and not easily predicted.

Over and over again, the general public seems outraged by blown weather forecasts. Buy why? I think it stems from the inability of the "forecaster" to admit what they know vs don't know about the weather. Most forecasters speak in absolutes about what will happen, I guess fearing that any uncertainty would undermine there knowledge or ability to do their jobs.

So the new goal here is to point out "busted" forecast, and weather people that seem to have their head up their @$!%.

Based on this, we will be issuing Watches and Warnings similar to our friends at the National Weather Service based on "forecast" that just don't hit the mark.

Weather Droppings Pile of Pooh Watch: This forecast just doesn't seem right. We weary of what the "forecasters" are saying. Take a shot that things are not as they seem to be.

Weather Droppings Pile of Pooh Warning: A busted forecast is imminent or occurring. Take immediate action to protect you or your planned activities from being derailed.

More Snow Sunday Night

noreply@blogger.com (Brent Williams) — Sat, 13 Feb 2010 14:02:00 +0000

...ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND ROUND OF WINTER PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAYEVENING THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. THE EVENT WILLBEGIN AS RAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AS TEMPERATURES FALL NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING AFTER SUNSET...THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATIONS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. CURRENTLY THE FORECAST CALLS FOR NEARLY ONE INCH GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...BUT ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 278 AND INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDORS. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES AS THE EVENT CONTINUES TO UNFOLD.

Winter Storm Warning

noreply@blogger.com (Brent Williams) — Thu, 11 Feb 2010 20:07:00 +0000

...Winter Storm Warning in effect from midnight tonight to 6 PM
CST Friday...

The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a Winter
Storm Warning for heavy snow...which is in effect from midnight
tonight to 6 PM CST Friday.

The atmosphere across central Alabama will be conducive to a dominant
precipitation type of snow. Snow will begin falling after midnight
tonight across far western areas near Tuscaloosa. The snow will
quickly spread eastward Friday morning...and is expected to taper
off from west to east late Friday afternoon. At this time...it
appears that snow accumulation of two to four inches will be
possible in and near the warned area.

Areas west of Interstate 65 will likely experience the heaviest
accumulating snow between 7 and 11 am while areas east of
Interstate 65 will get the heaviest snow a bit later between 10 am
and 2 PM.

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow
are forecast that will make travel dangerous. If you must
travel...keep an extra flashlight... food...and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency.

Listen to NOAA Weather Radio or your local media for the later
updates on this situation.

Winter Weather Potential Friday

noreply@blogger.com (Brent Williams) — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 21:46:00 +0000

From the National Weather Service:

Over the last couple of days much has been discussed in regards to the potential for winter weather Friday. Unfortunately...due to the lack of continuity in the forecast models...forecast confidence remains low. Timing remains very consistent in all of the forecast models...as Friday looks to be our target day. But with the uncertainty on the track of the surface low...which will determine not only the amount of moisture that is offered up with this system...but also how far the freezing line will dig into the south...it is still too early to pinpoint where and how much snow will fall in central Alabama. For now...the best chance for any accumulation of winter precipitation remains generally along and south of Interstate 20... especially during the morning hours on Friday. In the worst case scenario...a band of heavy snow could set up across the state...dropping 1 to 3 inches in a fairly short period of time. Please begin to plan ahead on how a couple of inches of snow could affect you and your family...before it actually falls.
Check back with US frequently for this potential of winter weather on Friday. On the web...check out our hazardous weather outlook and our multimedia impact briefing for the latest information.

Cold Continues - Record Watch

noreply@blogger.com (Brent Williams) — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 22:18:00 +0000

While we probably won't break any individual records for low temperatures with the current cold snap, a couple of significant streaks as it relates to the length of the cold are within reach.

Unseasonably cold weather will remain the story through next Monday (1/11). Yes, I said 1/11. If you think it is cold now, more is on the way and its going to get colder.

It did not make it above freezing today (high was 28), and tomorrow will be near freezing again. Tonight's low will be around 16.
Wednesday we should see increasing clouds with highs in the mid-30's.
Thursday will be cold with a chance of snow. It does not appear to be a big event at this time as the depth of this cold air mass is very dry. But we will be waiting and watching as you should as well.
Friday through Sunday looks brutally cold. Highs struggling to reach 20 Friday and Saturday with lows in the single digits very possible.
A warm up begins Monday with highs in the 40's (heat wave).

Notes from the NWS concerning the cold for the Anniston area:

AT ANNISTON…THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED (BETWEEN THE YEARS OF 1903 AND 2009) WAS -5 DEGREES ON JANUARY 21…1985. THE COLDEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDED WAS 14 ON FEBRUARY 14…1905. THERE ARE ALSO SEVERAL STREAKS THAT ARE WORTH NOTING. THE FIRST IS IN REGARDS TO MORNING LOWS. SO FAR ANNISTON HAS NOW RECORDED 3 DAYS…IN WHICH THE LOWS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 25 DEGREES. THE RECORD CONSECUTIVE STREAK FOR THIS IS 10 DAYS…WITH THE ENDING DATE OF JANUARY 7…1940. CURRENTLY…FORECAST FOR THE ANNISTON AIRPORT CALLS FOR LOWS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 25 DEGREES THROUGH JANUARY 11…WHICH WOULD BRING THE CURRENT STREAK TO 10 DAYS…AND TIE THE RECORD. A SECOND NOTEWORTHY STREAK WOULD BE CONSECUTIVE DAYS IN WHICH THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WAS AT OR BELOW 32 DEGREES. THE RECORD IS 4 DAYS…SET BACK IN JANUARY 1977.
SOME RECORD LOWS THROUGH JANUARY 11…ARE AS FOLLOWS…

5 - 1/11 1969
6 - 1/14 1959
7 - 1/11 1970
8 - 1/10 1970
9 - 1/02 1970
10 - 1/04 1982
11 - 1/01 1982

Update on Cold Air Heading South

noreply@blogger.com (Brent Williams) — Tue, 29 Dec 2009 20:33:00 +0000

One thing we can all agree on. It is going to get cold! The idea of light snow for Alabama Thursday night into Friday is diminishing. Flurries are still possible as the cold front pushes through early Friday morning.

New Years Eve: Cloudy, with some drizzle possible. Turning much colder after dark.

New Years Day: Cold, with highs only in the low 40's.

Next week promises to keep us in the deep freeze. Check out model output for the next 9 days for temperatures in our area:

Check out next week with highs only in the 30's with lows around 20.