Weather Talk

Sunday Morning 7/5

tpann — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 14:10:00 GMT

Looks like an unusually cool close to the Holiday Weekend...with some cloud cover and a chance for a few showers. High temps will likely stay in the 70s...that's hard to do this time of the year! The average High is in the Upper 80s. There is an area of Low Pressure coming out of the Ohio Valley: Surface Map . This Low will actually pass well South of us Overnight, but it will be close enough to keep a chance for a shower in the forecast. On Monday & Tuesday, a series of upper level disturbances will move through, so there will again be a slight chance for a few showers. The upper level trof will stay in place through the start of the work week, keeping the temps nice and mild. By the end of the week, a ridge will start to develop here on the East Coast, and that means the temps will jump up close to 90 by Friday.

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Friday Morning 7/3

tpann — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 09:21:00 GMT

The upper Low that has been parked up in the Great Lakes for the last few days, is finally starting to open up and move East: Water Vapor Loop . The trof axis will be swinging through the Mid Atlantic Today, and that means the temps will be nice and mild for this time of the year. The average High is 87, and we'll only reach the Upper 70s and Low 80s this Afternoon. The atmosphere will still be unstable, but since the air is dry, there will only be a 30% chance for a T-Shower this Evening. The same weather set up will be with us on The 4th...there will be a 30% chance for a Shower or Storm in the Afternoon, but odds are that the Fireworks displays will go off with no problems. It will be a little warmer on Saturday, but still nice for the first week of July.

Have a Happy and Safe Holiday Weekend!

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Thursday Afternoon 7/2

tpann — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 18:53:00 GMT

The same weather set up will be with us as we move into the Holiday Weekend. There is still a big Upper Low spinning across the Great Lakes: Water Vapor Loop . It will continue to send weak vorticity maximums in our direction, creating a little instability in the atmosphere. Unlike the last few days though, the surface winds have turned to the West this Evening. This produces a drying effect...dropping the dew points into the Upper 50s and Low 60s...and it should have a big effect on the convection. There is no moisture for the instability to work with...the over all result will be just a slight chance for a shower or storm each day into Saturday. At this point, the fireworks displays look OK. There will only be about a 30% chance that precipitation will pop up in your neighborhood on the 4th. The temps will stay below normal...in the Low to Mid 80s. Enjoy!

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Weather Talk Off

tpann — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 23:49:00 GMT

My Next post will be Tuesday June 30th.

Sunday Morning 6/21

tpann — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 13:51:00 GMT

Happy Father's Day and welcome to Summer 2009! After an active Saturday, things will settle down over the next few days. Low pressure will stall off the NJ Coast, and become the source for a pleasant North breeze and a slight chance for a few showers. You can see it here on the Water Vapor Loop . Spokes of energy will rotate around the West side, and give us off & on chances for a couple of showers through Monday. The North wind will keep the humidity down and the temps a little below normal for this time of the year. We will likely end up with a fairy nice stretch of weather through the middle of the week. I do not see any big chances for precipitation until maybe the end of the week...Enjoy!

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Saturday Morning 6/20

tpann — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 13:03:00 GMT

We have the remains of a big MCC , that moved out of the Ohio Valley, going through this Morning. This first round of showers and storms should move out by the middle of the day. The atmosphere is actually primed Today for T-Storm activity, but the left over clouds from the MCC might lower our chances for T-Storm redevelopment later this Afternoon. It all depends on how much sunshine can break through this Afternoon...more sun = a better chance for storms. At the surface, we'll be watching an area of Low Pressure roll through PA Tonight: Surface Map . This will drag a cold front into the Metro Area and off the coast Overnight, bringing an end to the convection. This Low will stall off the NJ Coast on Sunday, keeping a North wind going here...temps will be cooler on Father's Day, but there will only be a slight chance for a shower.

The Summer Solstice takes place at 1:45 AM on Sunday.

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Thursday Morning 6/18

tpann — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 11:30:00 GMT

After a round of heavy rain in some areas early this Morning, the weather should be fairly quiet through the middle of the day. We are watching an area of Low Pressure moving through PA: Surface Map . It dragged a warm front though early, so our winds will be turning to the South. As the Low passes to our North, it will push a cold front into the region late in the Day or early Tonight. There could be a round of t-storms at that time. If we get enough sun to break though the clouds, there could even be a round of severe weather. The atmospheric dynamics are fairly impressive, but the amount of sunshine will be the key. If it stays cloudy, we will not get severe weather. Here's the latest from SPC . The weather should be quiet on Friday...just a slight chance for a t-storm in the Afternoon and temps in the Mid 80s. There will be a better chance for storms on Saturday.

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Wednesday Morning 6/17

tpann — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 13:07:00 GMT

Today, it will not feel like the middle of June! We have High Pressure moving down the East Coast...providing a low level east wind and a marine air mass...and a short wave approaching from the West: Surface Map . This set up will lock in the cool temps, and provide some rain showers...especially in the Western Suburbs...through out the day. Highs will likely stay in the 60s! The average High this time of the year is around 84. We will warm up into the 80s by the end of the week, but I think the rest of the month will be a little below average in the temperature department, and we will continue with the wet conditions. The NAO is forecast to go "negative", which is conducive to dips in the jet stream along the East Coast. If you want warmer temps, the jet stream has to move North into Canada.

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Tuesday Morning 6/16

tpann — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 13:43:00 GMT

High Pressure is now building down the East Coast, and our surface winds have shifted to the East: Surface Map . What does this mean for us? The clouds will thicken up Today...and stick around through the middle of the week. Temps will stay well below normal...maybe not even getting out of the 60s on Wednesday! I do not see a trigger for precipitation Today, but there could always be some drizzle in this type of situation. On Wednesday, there will be a short wave approaching from the West. This will increase the chances for rain, as a surface warm front tries to move in from VA. The whole thing should pass through on Thursday, opening the door to some sunshine and warmer temps by Friday.

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Monday Morning 6/15

tpann — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 14:07:00 GMT

We are getting into an interesting weather pattern for this time of the year...cool temps and some could cover. Let's start with Today...we are watching a piece of energy in the upper levels of the atmosphere moving into PA. You can see it here on the Water Vapor Loop . This could trigger a few showers or t-storms this Evening, but I would only put a 30% chance on it. On Tuesday and Wednesday, High pressure will build down the East Coast. This will turn our surface winds to the ENE and build in a little could cover with the Marine air mass. High temps will be below normal through the middle of the week...maybe not getting out of the 60s on Wednesday! A few showers are possible as well...especially in the Afternoon.

Join us for Weather Talk Radio live on Tuesday Night at 8PM! You can stream the audio on Internet Partnership Radio .