Long Range Weather Forecast for Ireland

Cold February

2012-02-05T16:29:00.000-08:00

February has turned out to be quite cold so far and some stations are only averaging just over 0c due to severe night time frosts. Of course Ireland has escaped the severe weather of Europe that has left many people dead with blizzards and wintry conditions there bringing temperatures of minus 36 and lower in some rural spots.

Will we continue to escape. What looks like happening is that the cold weather in Europe is going to come up against the mild Atlantic weather just to the West of Ireland. Despite this most of the precipitation that falls looks like being rain as it will fall along the Western half of Ireland where the milder temperatures will be. Here it will be 6 or 7c though it will drop to 4 or 5c at times.

Further East it is drier and colder and if any of the rain makes inroads across the country it could turn to snow and this will cause all sorts of problems with transport and heating. It looks like a lot of dry cold weather will extend to Ireland around the 8th February so conditions should not be too bad.

Further on into the month there are the possibilities of one or two more snowy episodes mid month from the North and East and certainly Britain is going to be affected by these. In fact in the UK they could see a lot of snow accumulations in the next two to three weeks with temperatures below average there for most of the time.

Here in Ireland the temperatures will vary to just slightly below average in the West to below average in the East. There will be sharp to severe ground frosts too and night time temperatures will be between 0 and minus 5c at times. If there is any snow cover these temperatures could drop lower.

Colder for End of January

2012-01-23T15:13:00.000-08:00

The Long Range Weather Forecast for Ireland is certainly containing a lot more in the way of colder episodes than the weeks just gone.

It may not be cold all of the time but it will be cold enough for snow at higher levels quite a few times and this risk is going to extend to lower levels at times temporarily especially in the West and North of Ireland and more especially during the night.

Frost could also be a problem if the temperatures are low at night for a sustained period and they will be more severe if there is any lying snow which acts as a coolant and brings down the temperature.

Keep up with the latest here

Winter Storms Cause Havoc

2012-01-03T15:22:00.000-08:00

Some extremely stormy weather hit Ireland on January 3rd 2012 with a gust of 91knots recorded at Malin Head courtesy of Met Eireann. Sligo saw winds in excess of 65 miles per hour bringing down power lines in areas like Geevagh and Cliffoney and leaving a lot of homes in these areas without power.

Met Eireann have said that it was the windiest spell of weather since the storm of Stephens Day in 1998.

Over 1800 homes were still without power 24 hours after the storm hit but the ESB are working hard to restore power to these areas mainly along the Atlantic Seaboard.

Birds struggled in the High Winds

What is in the forecast for the coming few days well initially it continues windy and wet but towards the end of the week it will get a lot calmer and much milder as temperatures reach 11 or 12c and High Pressure builds to the South of Ireland and this will bring a lot more settled weather for most of the middle part of January.

No White Christmas

2011-12-14T16:45:00.000-08:00

Unfortunately the forecast does not point toward a white Christmas this year as there is a High Pressure in the mild Atlantic Ocean that wants to visit Irelands shores for the festive season.

Temperatures are in fact going to be very mild making it a totally different scenario to what we experienced in last years Big Freeze when the temperature on Christmas morning was a lowly minus 17c.

Though the Christmas is not going to be white the long range forecast is looking at some cooler weather coming in for the New Year and some of the not so reliable long range models have some bitterly cold weather setting in for January 2012.

To Snow or not to Snow

2011-12-03T13:29:00.000-08:00

That is the Question. Whether it is nobler in the mind to suffer the slings and arrows of mild weather or by opposing get cold weather to end them.

Certainly a colder feel to the weather for the coming weeks with a lot of showery weather where the showers will be wintry with sleet and hail with the odd one of snow

Temperatures for the next 10 days will be 6 to 9c.

Unsettled Times Ahead

2011-11-16T14:40:00.000-08:00

Rather Mild weather has been dominating November so far with the temperature reaching the dizzy heights of 17.3c in Valentia Observatory and also getting above 16c in Belmullet on Sunday 13th November 2011. Just what is causing this unseasonably mild weather. Hell it is looking as if it is going to be the mildest November on record in a good number of locations around Ireland and this is even if we do get the expected cooler weather toward the end of the month.

1994 was indeed a very mild November in Ireland also with the mean temperature in the North of Ireland of near 9c while it got over 10c in parts of the South. But while a lot of that year saw mild wet and windy weather November 2011 has been quite different with a predominately Southeasterly flow steering up warm winds from the continent.

Now the weather is going to stay mild for the next 10 days but there will be some subtle changes. The first one is that it will be a lot wetter. Some stations like Claremorris and Finner Camp have only seen 10 to 20% of their normal rainfall for the month of November so far. This figure will bulk up so that by the end of the month it will be near normal again. As well as being wetter the weather is going to slowly get a little cooler from the North with temperatures dipping into high single figures by day around the end of the month.

How this is going to impact the Christmas weather is hard to say but what is certain is that by the time December comes we will be due a spell of cold weather so I wouldnt rule out some spells of frost at least if the Atlantic loosens its grip.

A Drier November?

2011-11-04T18:26:00.000-07:00

It does look a lot drier in general for November after a wet start. High Pressure will be always nearby and there will be some frosty nights. Nothing too severe.

There will therefore be a lot of sunshine and rainfall should be below average. There will be breakdowns in this pattern at times and as the High slips south toward the end of the month a cooler Northerly or Northwesterly could bring the first wintry showers of the season.

This however will be short-lived and will be replaced by milder weather as we head into December.

Cool Weather in General

2011-10-14T18:09:00.000-07:00

Although the weather in recent weeks has been very mild for the start of October both in Ireland and the UK, it is set to get cooler in the coming few weeks with a lot of rain and some wintry showers at times. Snow is not likely except on the highest peaks but it will be a good deal cooler.

What is the cause of this? Well for nearly all of 2011 the weather pattern has been coming from the Atlantic and in the last few months in particular it has been coming from the Northwest. This resulted in a very cool June and August.

Again we are looking at a continuation of this weather pattern in the coming few weeks with a lot of windy weather to go along with it so it will feel very seasonal though perhaps too early for any snow lovers to take out the skis.

Take it that temperatures are now going to be below normal or at average and rainfall will be above average especially along the already soaked Atlantic seaboard.

Warm end to September

2011-09-28T14:00:00.000-07:00

September has ended on a real warm note with a high of 25.5c recorded in the Pheonix Park and 24.4c in Casement.

These temperatures are comparable to anything that Ireland experienced over the Summer that has already been recorded as the coolest in over 50 years in some parts.

Well the rest of September looks set to remain mild or even warm but there will be more cloud than September 28th and there will be a lot of rain in the Western half of the country which has seen a very wet September overall in 2011.

2011 Summer coolest in 50 years

2011-08-28T14:55:00.000-07:00

The Summer just gone has not been notable for anything really apart from the fact that it has been a very cool one.

Temperatures for each of the 3 months are over a degree below what would normally be expected in Ireland.

The last days of August have not improved the trend and September is not looking like causing much of an improvement either.

So what has caused the Summer to be so cool?

Some would say that the number of volcanoes has an affect on it but this is not always true.

The main consensus points to the Southerly point of the Jetstream which has resulted in all the cooler air from the North being dragged over the British Isles instead of warmer air from the Southwest if the Azores High had come over us at all.

Its too far to say it yet but if the long standing Northerly dominance of our weather persists as it has done throughout 2011 we could be in for yet another of those freezing cold Winters.

No Sign of Summer

2011-08-14T01:54:00.000-07:00

The past week has seen between 40 and 60mm of rain in many parts of Ireland with very little sunshine and it certainly looks like Summer 2011 is going to go down as yet another poor Summer.

The last time there was widespread heat for Summer in Ireland was July 2005 and even then there was a lot of thunderstorms. There was also some warm weather in August 2003 so it would seem that cool Summers are now the norm.

However globally the temperature is rising so how is it that Ireland is not benefitting?

A lot of it has to do with the Jetstream which has been to the South or over Ireland for the past 6 Summers now. As long as this is the case we will continue to get these cool Summers.

Also as long as it happens in the Winter we will get freezing conditions. Conversely the Polar Sea Ice in the North Pole is at its lowest level for the time of year and may end up at its lowest level ever around the start of September. This can have the effect of altering the climate patterns of the Northern Hemisphere but Scientists are as of yet uncertain exactly how it will affect Ireland.

We are definitely in a period of climate transition in Ireland but it does seem that we are currently in a cool phase of weather and Summer will need to be written off for another year unfortunately.

A thundery scene for August.

2011-08-06T10:34:00.001-07:00

Thundery weather becoming prevalent in August with Heavy Rain at times. There will also be some dry spells too. Temperatures are going to be near normal or slightly below but there will be the odd warm day too. Normal daytime values for August in Ireland are 16 to 18 or 19c but on the warm days they will reach 21 or 22c

July Becomes Cooler

2011-07-13T16:59:00.000-07:00

Not the headline that you want to see on the long range weather prediction but this is the way it looks for the coming 7 to 10 days.

A lot of rain and showers and quite windy from the Northwest.

Toward the end of the period things are trying to settle down once more so we should hit 20c once again.

Cooler Weather on Way

Will we get 25c in Ireland this Summer? Strangely April is the warmest month so far and the start of June too. The past 2 days have seen the mercury creep over 22c in parts but cooler weather is on the way in the short term.

For 25c try the end of July maybe. More on this in the next blog.

Warmer July

2011-07-01T14:54:00.000-07:00

July is looking a bit more settled now than previously though a week ago although it may turn out just the opposite again.

However at present a few days at the start of 20c especially in the East and South will mean a pleasant feel to things as the month begins.

Then as we head into July it will turn a bit showery but High Pressure will never be too far away and conditions especially in the South and East of Ireland will be drier than normal.

Cool and Showery

2011-06-28T15:12:00.000-07:00

Everybody go. Nothing to see here. Cool and showery for the rest of the Summer is a general consensus floating around at the moment. Hopefully this wont ring true but there is an established and quite mobile flow of Atlantic systems passing over or close to Ireland for the forseeable future with just a few warm days dotted between the almost constant Lows. While it is not as powerful as some recent Summers this year so far has seen its fair share of quite chilly weather. In fact in April we were enjoying warmer conditions than we are now!

Summer 2011 Over?

2011-06-09T03:04:00.000-07:00

Summer 2011 would appear to be over after just 4 good days. The charts are repeating a North-West/South-East split for the rest of June and into July there does not appear much change. SO if you live in the Southeast there will be some sunny days from time to time but if you live in the North and West these will be fewer and temperatures will be around normal or slightly cooler at times. Sorry for the bad news.

Flamin June quenched!

2011-06-03T03:27:00.000-07:00

The warm start to June will be a false falacy as the weather patterns change dramatically with a low replacing the High and residing over Ireland for the first two weeks of June. This of course will be after temperatures of some 25c on June 3rd 2011 in Ireland. There will still be the odd nice day in June and at least it will not be as windy as May Temperatures are only going to be 12 to 15c before rising to 15 to 18c after week ones heatwave of 4 days!

Anything better for June?

2011-05-25T15:38:00.000-07:00

Well May has been a complete write off. High Pressure stuck out in the Atlantic being of no use to anyone.

This scenario happened last Summer too but signals are that June will have a better attempt at pushing the High up to us and bringing warmer conditions of at least 20c if it comes off.

However the High does not seem too keen to cross Ireland in June. We want it over Scandanavia or Northern Europe. What is showing up now in the weather models is it declining back into the ocean with a splash and back to square May once again.

At least we'll get a few nice days for the start of June so the bank holiday may be flaming yet.

Changing Weather Models

2011-05-19T15:06:00.000-07:00

There is much uncertainty in the Long Range Weather Forecasting Models. One thing for sure is that the Atlantic is going to get a battering on Monday May 23rd and that there will be 25 to 35mm of rain in the next 3 to 4 days in some parts of the West.

wetterzentrale.de latest model

Beyond that the models dont agree. Do the storms drag a lot of the bad weather up North or will a replacement secondary system become lodged over Ireland?

The first scenario has strengthened its claims on the latest model for a warm sector to end May. This wasnt at all feasible only 12 hours earlier.

Both scenarios result in a temperature differential of 10c so we would like the heat. Perhaps a safer option would be halfway between these. Maybe some warm sunny spells but some shower activity too. No doubt after the weekend it will become clearer. Weatherwise we hope too.

In order to keep posted weathergossip has it all.

Very wet May on the cards

2011-05-08T16:45:00.000-07:00

A look at the long range weather models show that May is going to be a very wet month. But lets not panic yet. We were expecting that but hopefully at month end and into June things will improve somewhat. However it does look like the South and West of Ireland will see their wettest May in many years.

So far in Cork they have already had over a months worth of rain and though places like Sligo, Galway and Castlebar have been drier so far this is about to change as the wind shifts to a more Westerly stream.

The East should end up with a May of normal or just above normal rainfall but overall the temperatures are going to cool down significantly too for the rest of the month making it feel quite Autumnal at times!!! Just look forward to June I'd advise.

Widespread Gorse Fires

2011-05-02T16:49:00.000-07:00

Gorse Fire burns in the distance in Sligo

A Bank Holiday weekend that saw some of the worst gorse fires to hit Ireland in many years. More especially in the Northwest and Donegal there was acres of gorse burnt. The cause of this was the Southeastery winds which panned the flames. Also there has been alleged arson too. The army was deployed to deal with the fires and most are under control but there are still one or two in Sligo, Leitrim and Offaly.

As the week goes on the weather is expected to become very wet and windy so this problem will be a thing of the past. Temperatures are expected to drop back to seasonal values or below as rainfall increases. The whole month of May is expected to be a lot wetter and cooler than March or April were when the weather was very dry indeed.

Winds are also going to be strong for the next 10 day in Ireland. This will be a change from the near calm conditions that Ireland has enjoyed in 2011 so far.

Dry Weather is continuing

2011-04-25T16:36:00.000-07:00

The Dry weather is continuing and indeed the dry trend for 2011 has continued also. Ireland saw a little bit of heavy rain at the start of April and also in February but there has been an awful lot of dry weather this year.

As has been previously discussed here the past 3 or 4 years have followed a similar pattern to this one and have usually ended in May or June turning wetter and this has been followed by long periods of rain and thundery weather.

This year though long range predictions have weaker energy coming from the Atlantic and are just showing a short breakdown for May in the weather. After this June and July are looking like they will bring a recovery in temperatures and weather conditions but the weathergossip 2011 Summer weather forecast which will be published at the end of this week will confirm all.

Warmth continues

2011-04-21T15:17:00.000-07:00

Sunny April 2011

The April 2011 warmth has continued and the month is on course to be near enough the record temperature on average ever experienced in Ireland for April. Every day since April 1st has seen quite high values to when the month is looked at as a whole it will be very hard to beat in the future.

Or so it would seem. It depends on many factors and the final week could go a long way to telling if April 2011 is going to be a record breaker. Finally a sneak preview of May suggests a cooler period of weather with quite a degree more wet weather on the horizon by then

Then if we look further ahead to the Summer of 2011 the weather still looks like it will be warm a lot of the time and there will be many periods of good weather overall.

April Dry Weather

2011-04-14T02:16:00.000-07:00

Dry trends in the Long Range Models now for April with High becoming established for the rest of the month and in to May. Not certain if a cooler trend will establish then with Low Pressure. What is certain is that temperatures on average through April will be near record values.

April Record Average Temperature

2011-04-13T06:41:00.000-07:00

It now looks highly likely that the average temperature for this month will be close to a record for the month for Ireland. Perhaps even above 11c. The normal is 8c. So a 3c deviation is quite a lot. more to follow...