Welcome to GWarner's blog

All plays are in their own sections

2010-05-06T12:57:00.004-04:00

I have added a bit of organization to my page so plays I make from one sport will be together with all the plays from that sport.

Just look to the right and click on the sport you're looking for and you'll get there.

Thanks for visiting and click a few links!

-Griffin

5/5

2010-05-05T17:32:00.002-04:00

SF ML -121
-constantly getting killed with these favorites going the wrong way, but the Fish struggle with junk pitchers and that is exactly what Zito is...
BAL/NYY u9.5 +100
San Diego ML (-137) vs. Colorado: 2.313/1.687 (Dimeline)
Split between Matchbook & Dimeline, but I really like Clayton Richard and I will keep playing him at this price when he faces struggling teams/pitchers and the Rockies/Cook fulfill that.
San Antonio ML (+142) @ Phoenix: 0.826/1.172 (Matchbook)
Figured I'd give some fade material to anyone out there, but I think it's pretty obvious that I'm due. I expect Tony Parker to start tonight and Jason Richardson can't shoot as well as he did last game. Pop has seen that this team can steal one on the road, and I think he's figured out how to slow/stop the pick-n-roll with Nash and Amare based off the 2nd half performance on Monday night. I think the Spurs take this in 6...

good luck

5/4

2010-05-04T17:37:00.002-04:00

Houston ML -129
-Embarrassing loss yesterday and Roy-O is on the mound to stop the bleeding
KC-CHW u9 +119
-Hochevar 2.91 career ERA in US Cellular, Floyd 3.65
Utah-Los Angeles UNDER 101 (+100): 1\1 (Dimeline)
Hope LA crushes dreams early and the Jazz throw the white flag out there early

good luck

5/3

2010-05-03T18:24:00.002-04:00

Baltimore-New York OVER 9 (-103): 2.06/2 (Matchbook)
Bill Hohn called the 8th lowest percentage of strikes last season, despite having an 11-12 o/u result. I think he'll make it very tough for Jeremy Guthrie to succeed against a team he's struggled against historically. I also like the O's 'pen to give up some runs so I'm just hoping CC's recent struggles continue or at least he doesn't throw a gem.

Phoenix +1 (-105, 2H) vs. San Antonio: 1.05/1 (Matchbook)
I still think SA wins this series, barring injuries to players like Duncan/Ginobili/Parker, but I think they'll steal g2.

good luck

5/1

2010-05-01T14:53:00.002-04:00

New York-Philadelphia UNDER 7.5 (+101): 2/2.02 (Matchbook)
Halladay one one side and Pelfrey with the new and improved splitter makes me lean UNDER. Then I see Ron Kulpa behind the dish and I'm in like Flynn.

San Diego ML (+118) vs. Milwaukee: 1.535/2.465 (Matchbook)
Milwaukee's scuffling and probably just wants to get out of San Diego. The Pads are supposed to be an awful team, but they are playing great baseball and they are throwing out Mat Latos tonight who struggled last time out and I think his short outing will make him more motivated to pitch well tonight. I also like some of the ppl sitting for Milwaukee, while this home team shouldn't be dogged.

good luck

4/30

2010-04-30T12:43:00.004-04:00

Arizona-Chicago UNDER 14.5 (-104): 2.08/2 (Matchbook)
Rodrigo Lopez pitched in the winter leagues and I think he's in better form than most MLB pitchers who are just starting to find their stride. On the other side is Randy Wells who is a STUD in my book. I just think both guys rely on groundballs too much to allow the 35 MPH wind out to center to really affect the game, although the 'pens could have something to say with that. Just hoping for a good start to the game so the pens can come in and bleed a little but not too much. Tim Welke behind the dish would be more of an over guy than an under guy in my opinion, but he's pretty neutral on most categories and I still am shocked by this number. Yesterday's game going over helps, too.

Milwaukee ML (+113) vs. Atlanta: 0.939/1.061 (Matchbook)
This is a play on the Hawks inability to win on the road, and their inability to play as a team. Don't love the Bucks, but the home crowd should bring this team to the 2nd round.

San Diego ML (-130) vs. Milwaukee: 2.261/1.739 (Dimeline)
Love me some Clayton Richard, as I actually have been on record saying that I think he'll be a candidate for the Cy Young later in the year. I'm shocked to see SD playing this well at this point in the season, but they have done very well at home. The Brewers need to score a lot of runs to win games, and I don't think this park or this pitcher will let them do that. After seeing Heath Bell get the day off last night, I think we'll see a good portion of a great bullpen tonight to keep a lead. I also look for chances to fade Dave Bush when he goes away from home.

Denver-Utah UNDER 215.5 (-110): 1.1/1 (Dimeline)
Elimination game unders are something that have repeated themselves for many years. This Utah-Denver series is currently 4-1 o/u and I think we see an under here with a nervous Denver team coming to Utah after shooting the lights out at home. I think the rims are much different in SLC than they are Denver, and I think that will make shooting a lot worse. I also like that all 3 referees had under records for the season. Let's pray for NO overtime and that they let them play out there...

good luck

4/28

2010-04-28T12:51:00.001-04:00

Oakland-Tampa Bay UNDER 8.5 (-109): 2.18/2 (Matchbook)
Favorite UNDER umpire Andy Fletcher is behind the dish tonight and I got two pitchers I really like. I like to back LHP's against TB because the Rays love to run and I think that takes the Rays out of their comfort zone. With that said, the home team is a huge favorite and that helps the HOME/UNDER correlation before I can even interject with my love to back James Shields at home. Dallas Braden is no slouch and he pounds the K-zone, plus the A's are traveling way north for a game in Toronto tomorrow and this is a pretty late start. Expect to see some scrubs in the Oakland lineup and I just hope they play good enough defense...

Utah +7 (+101) @ Denver

good luck

4/27

2010-04-27T20:27:00.001-04:00

SF 0-2-2 o/u with totals 9+ in '09

Philadelphia-San Francisco UNDER 9.5 (-109): 2.18/2 (Matchbook)
Eddings was 0-2 o/u in San Fran last year, and the Giants were 0-1 o/u with totals over 9 (0-1-2 at 9). Basically this is a HUGE under park and numbers never reach 9 let alone surpass it so I think there is a ton of value here. Of course I could see either one of these guys being lit up like a Christmas tree, but I'll take a normal game that ends on 9 to add to my bankroll. Let me also say that I like the Giants to win so the home/under correlation could work in my favor.

good luck

4.26

2010-04-26T18:13:00.001-04:00

Arizona ML (-104) @ Colorado: 2.039/1.96 (Dimeline)
Dan Haren has been throwing a ton of pitches this season, but he's always a quick starter. On the other hand we have Jason Hammel who has struggled in Coors in almost every outing, which is odd considering how good he was on the road last season. I don't think he's solved the curse of the altitude, and the Snakes are hitting well. The 'pen concerns me, but I think we'll see a good outing from Haren.

good luck

4.24

2010-04-24T13:38:00.002-04:00

Cleveland-Oakland UNDER 7.5 (-102): 2.04/2 (Matchbook)
I've made it no secret that I really respect Brett Anderson, and I think he'll respond to a bad outing last Sunday with a good one today. Fausto Carmona has been much better since being demoted to AAA, despite playing for a bad team, and I think he can stifle the A's bats who erupted yesterday. Like Dana DeMuth to give me some borderline strikes, also.

Kansas City ML (+105) vs. Minnesota: 1.951/2.048 (Dimeline)
Have always liked Luke Hochevar at home, and I have enjoyed fading Blackburn on the road/in the nighttime. Blackburn has some good numbers in KC in his career, but I think Hochevar will throw a gem today and the home team will take this one thanks to Gerry Davis' significant lean to the hosts.

good luck

4.23

2010-04-23T18:20:00.001-04:00

Seattle-Chicago UNDER 8.5 (+100): 2/2 (Matchbook)
Love Floyd at home and Culbreth is an under guy. The ChiSox are struggling with the bats and I like RRS.

good luck

4/22

2010-04-22T16:28:00.002-04:00

Washington ML (+162) vs. Colorado: 1.527/2.774 (Matchbook)
As promised I'm fading Ubaldo after the no-hitter, although I'm a little pissed Ryan Zimmerman is sitting. On get-away day when the Rox already won the series makes me think they'll only be somewhat interested in winning this game. Love seeing Hawpe and Ianetta out of the lineup because they are as good in the field as they are in the lineup, and I think we'll see a tough day for Ubaldo after throwing 128 pitches in his last start. Livan has been pitching very well and I think this price is about 30 cents off.

Los Angeles-Cincinnati OVER 10 (-107): 2.14/2 (Matchbook)
McClelland started the season 0-3 o/u and that is ridiculous. Time for an OVER run, and we get two pitchers that need a big K zone.

Los Angeles +3.5 (-104) @ Oklahoma City: 1.04/1 (Matchbook)
Didn't want to lose the hook here, even though I think the Lakeshow will win this SU. The Durantula will have to come up huge tonight if the Thunder are to win this game, nevermind cover the spread. I just think the mismatch inside is too severe for the Thunder to overcome, and I don't see the Lakers shooting as poorly as they did the other night. If you wanna save juice play the ML as I think it's a winner, but for a little extra insurance at a reasonable price take the 3.5

good luck

4/21

2010-04-21T18:10:00.001-04:00

Chicago ML (-108) vs. Tampa Bay: 2.077/1.923 (Matchbook)
Hate that I'm playing the ChiSox again today, but this line is off and the pale hose are the better team with homefield. I think Buerhle will have success working quickly with the lineup and it'll keep the Rays from getting in to a running game as he (like Danks) has a good pickoff move, too. Angel Hernandez loves home teams, and that doesn't hurt either.
Houston-Florida UNDER 8.5 (+106): 2/2.12 (Matchbook)
Like the pitchers here and I love Kerwin Danley's 0-3 o/u start to the season. I think the 'Stros get the win here, but even if they don't I think both pitchers will excel and we see a low total. Basically an extra run and an under-leaning umpire forced me to make this play...

good luck

4/20

2010-04-20T18:15:00.003-04:00

Philadelphia ML (+153) @ Atlanta: 1.581/2.418 (Matchbook)
I'm not a believer in Tommy Hanson, well at least not at this price. We got the best lineup in the NL with easy outs nowhere at a ridiculously nice price and I will take a shot. Looks like Paul Nauert is behind the plate with away teams winning 20 of 32 games last year and he calls a lot of strikes (63%). This will help Kyle Kendrick stay in the game and hopefully give the road team a chance if they get a few early runs off of Hanson.
Chicago W ML (+104) vs. Tampa Bay: 1.961/2.039 (Matchbook)
David Price has always struggled on the road and this is no different situation. The Rays are off a sweep in Boston and I think it will put them in a tough motivational point because they have to start a new series against a weaker opponent despite the Red Sox recent struggles. Danks has some nice road splits and I think Ozzie will do all he can to keep the Rays from running around the bases tonight. Like Danks pickoff move, too.
Oakland ML (+148) vs. New York AL: 1.613/2.387 (Matchbook)
Rapuano favored the home teams a bit last year and I think the travel (even with the day off) will hurt the Yanks a bit. Gio beat them in the Bronx last year, and while I'm not expecting an amazing effort I think the cavernous park will hurt the Yanks lefties and give a few outs to the home team. Really like the A's 'pen if they can get a lead late...
Los Angeles L -5 (2H, -109) vs. Oklahoma City: 1.09/1 (Matchbook)
The Lakers bigs are going to kill the Thunder on the boards in the 2H. I expect Phil to send the guys after Russell Westbrook to get his 4th foul early in the 2H and the OKC bigs will really let the team down. Just hope KD (who I love) doesn't kill this bet for me with a hot 2H.

good luck

4/18

2010-04-18T13:37:00.000-04:00

Pittsburgh ML (+116) vs. Cincinnati: 1.854/2.147 (Matchbook)
Home team plus memorable success for Paul Maholm on Sunday afternoons compared to Bronson Arroyo's inability to pitch during the day makes this a gift at the number I got it. Love Rob Drake's strikezone along with the 97-73 (57.1%) record home teams have with him in the past 4 years.

good luck

4/16

2010-04-16T19:11:00.001-04:00

Washington ML vs. Milwaukee
Too expensive to back Gallardo who hasn't been sharp this year against a pitcher that often fares well at home. In addition, we have an umpire in Adrian Johnson whose home teams went 24-11 last season.
Colorado-Atlanta UNDER
Kellogg had ridiculous UNDER numbers last year and Jason Hammel is a great pitcher away from Coors. Derek Lowe will use the sinker tonight and two teams are off of long trips and I don't see the bats being as effective tonight. No McCann & CarGo sitting down is nice, too.
Kansas City-Minnesota OVER
Cooper likes overs and dislikes people who work slowly. I think Greinke has been figured out in the division and I think the bullpens are even worse...

4/13

2010-04-13T10:40:00.000-04:00

Los Angeles ML (-161) vs. Arizona: 2.467/1.532 (Matchbook)
Worst case scenario I locked in a great number and can sell it back, but I think I'm going to stick with one of the most dominant home pitchers in the bigs. Clayton Kershaw hasn't figured out the road starts yet, but he has a 2.48 career ERA at Dodger Stadium. I thought this line would be over two bills so to me there's value in this heavy favorite. I think Ian Kennedy is garbage, too.

good luck

4/12

2010-04-12T18:07:00.000-04:00

Atlanta-San Diego UNDER 7.5 (-120): 2.4/2.00 (Matchbook)
Atlanta is on the long west coast trip and I think that will quiet their bats quite a bit. They are facing Kevin Correia who is one of those guys that can give you some solid innings because he seeks contact from batters allowing Petco's dimensions to bail him out. Jair Jurrjens is on the opposing side facing a weaker than normal lineup that has relied on the bottom of the order for production, which is a bad thing when a pitcher like Jurrjens is out there. The Bravos were bad defensively yesterday, and they cost Jurrjens a win in his first start so I think they will be on their toes today. I'm hoping some shadows come into play with the mid-afternoon start on the left coast, and Bill Miller brings his 9-22 o/u record behind the plate in this one along with his clubber (63.5%) strikes.

good luck

4/11

2010-04-11T02:56:00.001-04:00

adding:
Philadelphia-Houston UNDER 7.5 (-120): 2.4/2.00 (Matchbook)
The DisAstros probably won't win tomorrow and I really think they have the weakest lineup in baseball. They don't have a bullpen, which is VERY scary here if Roy-O has a tough day, but my favorite umpire is behind the dish. Andy Fletcher is the best under guy in all of the crews, as he's bailed me out with some awful starts by silencing bats with a big strike zone. I see Doc Halladay wondering if he's still in spring training with the AAA players the 'Stros are throwing out there, and I think Oswalt can keep the ball down and keep the Phils from getting to the 'pen too early. It's scary to play an UNDER when you expect the road team to win, but I think Houston is desperate for a win and Coach Mills will use his best arms in the 'pen. Hate the juice, but I don't want to lose the 1/2 as this is gonna drop to 7 at least.

good luck

4/9

2010-04-09T12:46:00.002-04:00

sold off SF for a nice split...

Washington-New York OVER 9 (+112): 2/2.24 (Matchbook)
Bad pens and bad pitchers plus an over umpire (Wolf) and I'm not second-guessing it.

good luck

4/8

2010-04-08T13:32:00.001-04:00

Toronto ML (+148) @ Texas: 1.613/2.387 (Matchbook)
Ricky Romero is a great pitcher on a bad team, but he's facing a converted closer who hasn't started a game in 5 years. C.J. Wilson is a pitcher I like, but he can't suddenly be stretched out and be reconverted after being converted from SP to RP in the past. Like Gibson not being a HOMER although I don't get much from him, but I just think Wilson will struggle to go 5 innings and that will mean the Jays get extra time with the Rangers 'pen while Romero can go deep. Also think the Jays want this one badly with the chance to steal a series on the road as they won't be grabbing many of them this season. Liked the over a ton, but I think Romero could keep that from hitting and I dislike get-away day OVERs.

good luck

4/7

2010-04-07T11:04:00.001-04:00

Colorado-Milwaukee UNDER 9 (-108): 2.16/2 (Matchbook)
Phil Cuzzi was 11-20 o/u last season and he calls a ton of strikes (63.46%), which works well with two pitchers that use the sinker and stay around the plate. Doug Davis is one of my favorite guys to look for on an under as he seems to get the double-play balls right when he needs them, and a similar guy in Aaron Cook is toeing the rubber for the away team. I like the shadows coming into play here in Miller Park as the afternoon games always give the pitcher a distinct advantage, along with the 2 over results so far in this series. Colorado's good arms in the 'pen are healthy, and Cuzzi is 4-5-1 L10 w/COL, 3-7 o/u w/MIL, 0-2 o/u @Miller Park last season, 0-3 o/u w/COL last season and 1-4 o/u in Davis' career.

good luck

4/6

2010-04-06T17:45:00.000-04:00

Arizona ML (-135) vs. San Diego: 2.298/1.702 (Matchbook)
Edwin Jackson's arm should have regained the form he had in the beginning of last season when he was dominant. He struggled in the latter part because Jim Leyland put him out there too much, but I think the transition to the NL will be much better for him and more importantly his arm. Meanwhile, we get Chris Young who has struggled on the road throughout his career and we get a HUGE homer ump in Ted Barrett. Home teams in Barrett's games last year went 21-10, and I think this line is way too short. The Fathers are going to be terrible this year and I actually like laying medium chalk in this situation with a team that needs to start well in Arizona playing a team with no hope, San Diego.

good luck

4/5

2010-04-05T12:51:00.001-04:00

Colorado-Milwaukee OVER 7.5 (+116): 2/2.32 (Matchbook)
Crawford in Miller Park with the roof open surely bringing a small K-zone with him against two pitchers that need big strike zones to succeed. Also, think closing will be an issue for the Rockies without Huston Street at the back end. This line should be 8 or 8.5 with these two pitchers and they're ability to struggle.

good luck

4/3

2010-04-03T18:43:00.002-04:00

West Virginia ML vs. Duke
To risk being brief, this game is about big men. Duke's non-scoring players are all tall and all rebound the ball giving the Blue Devils scorers additional chances. WVU basketball is about protecting the glass and not giving the opponents more shots. Duke will have to shoot very well from the perimeter to win this game because they won't get the volume shooting that they need to score 38% of their points. If the game is played in the high 70's, then West Virginia won't win. I doubt they get in a race to a high number, instead working the shotclock into the red numbers before finding a back-cut for an easy lay-up. I just see Huggybear's kids running all around on offense and extending the zone on defense. The back-cuts will be relentless and the man-to-man defense will be ferocious and "Take Me Home, Country Roads" will be playing all weekend until they hit the floor on Monday night.

good luck