What Is That Whistling Sound?

90% Probability Of Trump Victory In November

2020-07-09T17:04:00.000-06:00

Trump has 91% chance of winning second term, professor’s model predicts

President Donald Trump has a 91 per cent chance of winning the November 2020 election, according to a political science professor who has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996.
“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth told Mediaite on Tuesday.
Mr Norpoth told the outlet that his model, which he curated in 1996, would have correctly predicted the outcome for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced.
The model calculates the winning candidate based on early presidential nominating contests and placing an emphasis on how much enthusiasm candidates are able to generate early in the nominating process, the professor said.
“The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall,” Mr Norpoth said.

My view:

The lack of enthusiasm for Joe Biden and the chaos within the Democratic party should be detrimental to a Biden victory. Further, as the contest grows closer, it is likely to become apparent to many independent voters that Biden has serious cognitive issues, certainly not a desirable trait to lead the most powerful nation on earth. Indeed it makes one wonder why the push within the party for his candidacy. Is he a place holder president if elected that will resign for "health reasons" so a foreordained candidate can step into the presidency? Given the scheming within the political landscape, I view this as the probable motivation.
Despite opinion polls to the contrary, my view is a Trump victory that will likely be the most contentious one in generations.

Is This The Real Pandemic Agenda?

2020-06-20T10:25:00.003-06:00

My view:

After my own extensive review of peer reviewed scientific papers on the Sars Cov2 virus, it appears the highly exaggerated response from authorities was pushed by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and several other billionaires.
This satirical video sums it up nicely.

Signs Of A Disintegrating Culture

2020-06-17T12:26:00.000-06:00

This also could be called a lesson in Irony.

These three statements tell you a lot about our culture:
1.
We are advised by the Liberals to NOT judge ALL Muslims
by the actions of a few lunatics,but we are encouraged to judge
ALL gun owners by the actions of a few lunatics.
Funny how that works.
And another statement for consideration--
2.
We constantly hear about how CPP (Canada Pension Plan)
is going to run out of money..
How come we never hear about welfare running out of money?
What's interesting is the first group "worked for" their money,
but the second Did not.
Finally
3.
Provincial Social Services (welfare payments) is proud
to be distributing this year the greatest amount of free money ever.
Meanwhile, the Parks Branch, asks us
"Please Do Not Feed the Animals."
The stated reason for this policy is because
"The animals will grow dependent on handouts
and will not learn to take care of themselves."

Author unknown.

Effective Unemployment in Canada Reaches 35%

2020-04-13T09:46:00.003-06:00

Government data released today shows that 5.97 million Canadians have now applied for emergency unemployment aid.

Canada's labour force before the crisis was 19.2 million workers. A drop of 6 million puts effective unemployment over 35% already.

This number comes despite a 75% wage subsidy to businesses retaining workers announced in March.

The damage done to the economy over a not particularly virulent virus is inconceivable. The market as a whole and the electorate have little concept currently of the level of destruction. These levels are 50% higher than unemployment during the Great Depression.

What is worth noting is the unemployment numbers in the US have not caught up yet to the Canadian one due to the reporting methods of the different US states. These numbers will not be apparent for some weeks so the stock market will likely have a delayed reaction to the reality of the situation.

This level of unemployment is not a receipe for civility in society.

No End To The Lockdown In Sight

2020-04-09T12:14:00.001-06:00

Here are two officials, the Canadian Prime Minister, and Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases saying the same thing essentially, with both messages released almost simultaneously.

No return to ‘normality’ until coronavirus vaccine is available

Canadians won’t be able to return to life as they knew it before the novel coronavirus pandemic until a vaccine is available, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Thursday.
“Normality as it was before will not come back full-on until we get a vaccine for this… That will be a very long way off,” the prime minister said during his daily news conference on Canada’s response to the COVID-19 outbreak.

“We will have to remain vigilant for at least a year,” he added in French.

Anthony Fauci sets stage for mandatory -- lucrative! -- vaccine

Anthony Fauci, America’s most-listened-to medical professional on the coronavirus, and apparently on all the political, economic, cultural and social precautions every man, woman and child in the nation should take on the coronavirus, has just warned what cooler-head coronavirus watchers have suspected all along: that this country may never, no never, go back to normal.
Never, that is, Fauci suggested, until a vaccine is developed. And by logical extension, that’s to say — never, until a vaccine is developed that must then be included on the required list of shots for all children to attend school.
What great news for Big Pharma.

My view:

The hysteria around this 2nd version of SARS continues to grow and be fed by an irresponsible media and shadowy billionaires with their fingers in the proverbial vaccine pie. Billions of dollars in research for a vaccine that will likely never be produced. Read what Australia's Chief Medical Officer Brendan Murphy has to say:

"Unlike pandemic influenza, where the strategy was to control and contain until the vaccine came, because we knew the vaccine would come, we don’t know if and when a vaccine will come with this virus. If it does, that’s a beautiful way out. So, we have to look at a range of different potential scenarios. … But there is no single right answer.”

So there it is in black and white. There is coordinated responses, press releases if you will from Canada's disgrace of a Prime Minister, and Dr Fauci of the United States. Plus a statement from Australia suggesting there may never be a vaccine.

Welcome to the Police State. You are in permanent lockdown/house arrest.
Time to fight back.

One View Of A Police State

2020-04-04T18:39:00.002-06:00

Partial transcript from BBC 4's World at One program interviewing former Supreme Court Justice Jonathan Sumption, QC:

BBC interviewer Jonny Dymond

'A hysterical slide into a police state. A shameful police force intruding with scant regard to common sense or tradition. An irrational overreaction driven by fear.' These are not the accusations of wild-eyed campaigners, they come from the lips of one our most eminent jurists Lord Sumption, former Justice of the Supreme Court. I spoke to him just before we came on air.

Lord Sumption

The real problem is that when human societies lose their freedom, it's not usually because tyrants have taken it away. It's usually because people willingly surrender their freedom in return for protection against some external threat. And the threat is usually a real threat but usually exaggerated. That's what I fear we are seeing now. The pressure on politicians has come from the public. They want action. They don't pause to ask whether the action will work. They don't ask themselves whether the cost will be worth paying.
They want action anyway. And anyone who has studied history will recognise here the classic symptoms of collective hysteria. Hysteria is infectious. We are working ourselves up into a lather in which we exaggerate the threat and stop asking ourselves whether the cure may be worse than the disease.

Dymond

At a time like this, as you acknowledge, citizens do look to the state for protection, for assistance, we shouldn't be surprised then if the state takes on new powers if it responds. That is what it has been asked to do, almost demanded of it.

Sumption

Yes that is absolutely true. We should not be surprised. But we have to recognise that this is how societies become despotisms. And we also have to recognise this is a process which leads naturally to exaggeration. The symptoms of coronavirus are clearly serious for those with other significant medical conditions, especially if they're old. There are exceptional cases in which young people have been struck down, which have had a lot of publicity, but the numbers are pretty small. The Italian evidence, for instance, suggests that only in 12 per cent of deaths is it possible to say coronavirus was the main cause of death. So yes this is serious and yes it's understandable that people cry out to the government.
But the real question is: is this serious enough to warrant putting most of our population into house imprisonment, wrecking our economy for an indefinite period, destroying businesses that honest and hardworking people have taken years to build up, saddling future generations with debt, depression, stress, heart attacks, suicides and unbelievable distress inflicted on millions of people who are not especially vulnerable and will suffer only mild symptoms or none at all, like the Health Secretary and the Prime Minister.

Dymond

The restrictions in movement have also changed the relationship between the police and those whose, in name, they serve. The police are naming and shaming citizens for travelling at what they see as the wrong time or driving to the wrong place. Does that set alarm bells ringing for you, as a former senior member of the judiciary?

Sumption

Well, I have to say, it does. I mean, the tradition of policing in this country is that policemen are citizens in uniform. They are not members of a disciplined hierarchy operating just at the government's command. Yet in some parts of the country, the police have been trying to stop people from doing things like travelling to take exercise in the open country, which are not contrary to the regulations, simply because ministers have said that they would prefer us not to. The police have no power to enforce ministers' preferences, but only legal regulations - which don't go anything like as far as the government's guidance. I have to say that the behaviour of the Derbyshire police in trying to shame people into using their undoubted right to take exercise in the country and wrecking beauty spots in the Fells so that people don't want to go there, is frankly disgraceful.
This is what a police state is like. It's a state in which the government can issue orders or express preferences with no legal authority and the police will enforce ministers' wishes. I have to say that most police forces have behaved in a thoroughly sensible and moderate fashion. Derbyshire police have shamed our policing traditions. There is a natural tendency of course, and a strong temptation for the police to lose sight of their real functions and turn themselves from citizens in uniform into glorified school prefects. I think it's really sad that the Derbyshire police have failed to resist that.

Dymond

There will be people listening who admire your legal wisdom but will also say 'well, he's not an epidemiologist, he doesn't know how disease spreads, he doesn't understand the risks to the health service if this thing gets out of control'. What do you say to them?

Sumption

What I say to them is I am not a scientist but it is the right and duty of every citizen to look and see what the scientists have said and to analyse it for themselves and to draw common sense conclusions. We are all perfectly capable of doing that and there's no particular reason why the scientific nature of the problem should mean we have to resign our liberty into the hands of scientists. We all have critical faculties and it's rather important, in a moment of national panic, that we should maintain them.

Catastrophic GDP Forecasts Resulting From Virus Shutdown

2020-03-31T08:20:00.002-06:00

Bank GDP Forecasts

Deutsche Bank: -2.2% (Q1), -33% (Q2)
JP Morgan: -10% (Q1), -25% (Q2)
Wells Fargo: 1.2% (Q1), -14.7% (Q2)
TD: -3% (Q1), -25% (Q2)
Morgan Stanley: -2.4% (Q1), -30.1% (Q2)
Goldman Sachs: -9% (Q1), -34% (Q2)

Goldman also forecasts 15% unemployment mid year in the USA.

Helicopter Money Is Coming

2020-03-17T13:42:00.002-06:00

This just hit the wires:

Mnuchin pitches lawmakers $500 Billion in cheques to Americans

According to my calculations, this adds up to more than $1900 for each American over the age of 18.
The proposal is to send half the money by the end of April, and the balance the end of May.

Below is a prophetic interview with Marc Faber recorded 11 years ago. It could not be more accurate than if it was recorded yesterday.

Large Interest Rate Cut Coming March 4

2020-03-01T17:30:00.001-07:00

Don't Keep Your Powder Dry

Those of you who haven’t understandably tagged my emails for “straight to spam” may have read my observation this past Saturday (see here) that the FOMC’s forward guidance, and the structure of the Committee that gave rise to it, would result in the Committee first staying on the sidelines as markets collapse and then executing a big cut to generate a positive market reaction (and boost confidence). I had noted the tendency for the market to respond poorly to negative shocks when the Fed says it is on the sidelines back in October (see “The Fed is on the sidelines and it could be bumpy ahead”)
Now that we’ve observed the first part of that dynamic, and with Chair Powell’s comforting statement Friday afternoon that Fed will “act as appropriate,” the question is “what will the Fed’s big cut look like?” Here’s my call (and by “call” I mean both what I think they will do and what I think they should do).
There will be a coordinated easing across the major central banks and, possibly, the People’s Bank of China and the HKMA.

The cut will be substantial, at least 50 and possibly 75 basis points. When the Committee eases policy it judges the effectiveness by the market reaction. (By contrast, when the Committee tightens policy, it wants to avoid surprises). The only way to get a positive market reaction is to deliver more than expected. I’ve copied below a few indicative discussions from past FOMC transcripts.
The easing will include forward guidance designed to build confidence “we are going to do whatever it takes” rather than reduce confidence “the outlook is so grim we expect to keep rates low for a long time” or worse “this cut should be sufficient and it would take a further material change in the outlook for us to do more.”

My view:
Bill Nelson, author of this article is an insider and former Federal Reserve member.
We suspect that the latest reaction by the market has spooked the Fed and other central banks into making an emergency rate cut in an attempt to restore market confidence.
Whether it will occur as soon as Wednesday, we really don't know. But we suspect a move soon, as the rate of drop in this overvalued market is terrifying to the powers that be. Clearly they feel they are losing control of the financial system.
It will be interesting to watch both the reaction of the stock market and gold. In our view, high volatility will occur for some time, with rip your face off rallies to be followed by quick plunges.
The virus threat is really only beginning, and will show up in waves over the next year or two as the pandemic ebbs and then grows.

Deplorables Cry Out Against Authoritarian Elites

2020-02-12T11:43:00.004-07:00

Coronavirus Update

2020-02-05T11:21:00.005-07:00

Chinese Government Grossly Understates Corona Virus Victims

2020-01-31T09:12:00.000-07:00

Today the official count of confirmed cases of 2019 Corona virus, originating in Wuhan, China stands at 9776 with 213 deaths.

Several medical professionals, have gone on record in the last week stating these numbers do not make sense based on the number of cases exported to other countries.

The latest publication (Jan 31, 2020) in the Lancet has this to say:

Background Since Dec 31, 2019, the Chinese city of Wuhan has reported an outbreak of atypical pneumonia caused by the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). Cases have been exported to other Chinese cities, as well as internationally, threatening to trigger a global outbreak. Here, we provide an estimate of the size of the epidemic in Wuhan on the basis of the number of cases exported from Wuhan to cities outside mainland China and forecast the extent of the domestic and global public health risks of epidemics, accounting for social and non-pharmaceutical prevention interventions.

Methods We used data from Dec 31,2019,to Jan 28, 2020, on the number of cases exported from Wuhan internationally (known days of symptom onset from Dec 25, 2019, to Jan 19, 2020) to infer the number of infections in Wuhan from Dec 1, 2019, to Jan 25, 2020. Cases exported domestically were then estimated. We forecasted the national and global spread of 2019-nCoV, accounting for the effect of the metropolitan-wide quarantine of Wuhan and surrounding cities, which began Jan 23–24, 2020. We used data on monthly flight bookings from the Official Aviation Guide and data on human mobility across more than 300 prefecture-level cities in mainland China from the Tencent database. Data on confirmed cases were obtained from the reports published by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Serial interval estimates were based on previous studies of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV). A susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered metapopulation model was used to simulate the epidemics across all major cities in China. The basic reproductive number was estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods and presented using the resulting posterior mean and 95% credibile interval (CrI).

Findings In our baseline scenario, we estimated that the basic reproductive number for 2019-nCoV was 2·68 (95% CrI 2·47–2·86)and that 75 815 individuals (95% CrI 37 304–130 330) have been infected in Wuhan as of Jan 25, 2020. The epidemic doubling time was 6·4 days (95% CrI 5·8–7·1). We estimated that in the baseline scenario, Chongqing, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen had imported 461 (95% CrI 227–805), 113 (57–193), 98 (49–168), 111 (56–191), and 80 (40–139) infections from Wuhan, respectively. If the transmissibility of 2019-nCoV were similar everywhere domesticallyand over time, we inferred that epidemics are already growing exponentially in multiple major cities of China with a lag time behind the Wuhan outbreak of about 1–2 weeks.

Interpretation Given that 2019-nCoV is no longer contained within Wuhan, other major Chinese cities are probably sustaining localised outbreaks. Large cities overseas with close transport links to China could also become outbreak epicentres, unless substantial public health interventions at both the population and personal levels are implemented immediately. Independent self-sustaining outbreaks in major cities globally could become inevitable because of substantial exportation of presymptomatic cases and in the absence of large-scale public health interventions. Preparedness plans and mitigation interventions should be readied for quick deployment globally.

My view is the Chinese government is lying about the severity of the epidemic, which has the potential to become a global pandemic. The 75,800 infections as of Jan 25th mentioned in the article in conjunction with the 6.4 day rate of doubling, suggest over 150,000 current infections. The authorities seem very keen on downplaying the problem, to the point of arm twisting the World Health Organization to state that travel to China should remain unrestricted. Watching the live news conference of WHO yesterday was a rather sickening event as the director gushed and fawned over what a good job the Chinese authorities had done in preventing the spread of the virus and how transparent they are about the epidemic. The director had met president Xi himself on the matter.
Despite China's severe authoritarianism, anecdotal evidence continues to leak out that the outbreak is much more severe, hospitals are overrun with patients, medical staff is overwhelmed, medical supplies have run out, and virus victims are being left to fend for themselves, sometimes locked into their own apartments.
In our view, the market is underestimating the impact of the virus, thinking it will be mostly over in a week or so. Given the numbers, our view is a secondary outbreak, outside of China is likely within the next month unless serious restrictions are placed on travel and victims of this virus are quarantined.

A Chinese Black Swan Dive Bombs The Market

2020-01-27T16:39:00.002-07:00

The market finally pulled back substantially today as the accumulating news of events in China unfolded. We have been anticipating a pullback for some time, as our previous post indicated.

As more information comes to light on the corona virus situation, it is becoming clearer that officials have underestimated the economic and personal impact of the disease. As Dr Neil Ferguson, epidemiologist from the UK suggests, it is likely over 100,000 individuals are currently infected. The official number is only 2886 as of January 27. Recent papers from medical journals indicate the severity of the outbreak both in shear numbers and infectiousness of the virus.
Biorxiv
The Lancet
If the numbers show are reasonably accurate, each infected person will infect 3 to 5 others, and the mortality rate could be as high as 15% as early results shown in The Lancet.
Based on these preliminary numbers, total infected persons could balloon from 100,000 currently to half a million by mid February, and 5 million by the end of February.
Even if authorities manage to partially contain this epidemic, economic damage will be substantial, in addition to the human impact.
Our view is the market has not fully accounted for the spin off effects of this epidemic. It seems to be a black swan event that will continue to hit stocks and push up demand for safe haven assets such as precious metals.

A Growing Sense Of Unease

2019-12-12T10:38:00.002-07:00

Given the current backdrop in markets, the wild eyed optimism of a completed trade deal and steadfast corporate profits seems unsustainable to say the least.
Inter bank lending remains at very subdued levels, and there is a growing sense of unease below the tranquil surface.
Today's shooting star in the S&P 500 should cause considerable reflection. Only a year ago we faced the "December to remember" with a rapid decline in equities. Today many similar conditions exist again, making us even more skeptical about the market, and more optimistic on the precious metals sector.
Caution is the word of the day.

Very Fragile Stock Market Now

2019-11-19T18:32:00.002-07:00

Consider three charts this evening as substantial divergences are showing up in the markets.

The high yield market, a barometer for risk appetite has put in a lower high and is losing support now below the 50 day moving average, while the S&P is still reaching new highs. This should be a waving red flag.

This weekly chart of the volatility index (VIX) is at long term support and showing very complacent readings. Further, a coil pattern is apparent that suggests a large potential breakout in volatility may be imminent.

A wedge like weekly pattern in the gold mining ETF GDX suggests a breakout to the upside could occur soon. In the past, gold stocks have often rallied while the overall stock market sold off.

At this point all that is required is a trigger event for these scenarios to play out.
Could it be trouble in the US China trade negotiations?
Or a new Federal Reserve policy?
Or some other event, such as Iran acting up in the Middle East?

Regardless, the environment is quite fragile, so be careful out there.

Wake Up - The Truth Behind The Smartphone

2019-11-01T12:36:00.001-06:00

Here's A Laugh For You

2019-10-10T10:40:00.000-06:00

Historic First, Greek Debt Carries Negative Interest Rate

Athens, Greece (AP) — More than a year after Greece exited its bailout programs, investors — in a historic first — have bought its short-term debt at a loss.
The country’s debt management agency said Wednesday it raised 487.5 million euros ($535 million) selling 13-week treasury bills, for which the yield was -0.02%.
That means investors will get back slightly less than they paid, following a trend in other European countries.

My view:

My friends, we are approaching a moment of truth in the financial markets.
The Greek government, which was shut out of debt markets in 2010, is now selling short term bills at negative rates.
As we know from both text books and many years of experience, interest rates measure two things; the demand for money, and the reward for risking hard earned capital.
In 5000 years of monetary history, negative rates have never occurred until the very recent past, brought on by unprecedented money printing by central banks.
The entire concept of a negative return on capital is a logical contradiction itself.
Why would anyone put money in the bank, or bond market, knowing they will get less than their original capital in return?
Only thieves and money launderers might stoop to such desperate measures.
While gross imbalances and chicanery can go on longer than one expects, several of the charts we follow on this blog shout warnings and caution:
VIX weekly
A large coil pattern has formed suggesting a large sell off is likely in the S&P 500.
MTUM
A rounding top appears to be forming in this momentum ETF.
SOFR
The spike in short term rates in this LIBOR replacement suggests inter-bank liquidity is a big problem. The Fed even introduced 2 week term REPOs to keep rates down and cash flowing.
This is not a sign of a healthy financial system.
Goldman Sachs
A weekly chart reveals a large bear flag that is starting to break down.
If the vampire squid starts to rapidly unwind, it is likely to bring other institutions along for the ride.

A negative feedback loop appears to be drawing liquidity out of the system. The implications suggest deflating stock prices, spiking volatility, and a rotation into safe havens such as gold and the Japanese Yen. The next few weeks in the market will be telling.

Is The Fed Losing Control Of Interest Rates?

2019-08-20T16:50:00.002-06:00

Federal Reserve has lost control

The Federal Reserve has lost control of interest rates as evidenced by the federal funds rate trading higher than any part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, Jeffrey Gundlach, the chief executive of DoubleLine Capital, said on Tuesday. “What else do you need to call it an inversion?”

via GIPHY

Did you buy your gold yet?

The Fun Is Just Getting Started

2019-08-13T19:42:00.000-06:00

As the reader probably realizes today, gold finally had a little pullback. We have been waiting for this event for some time and have been surprised with the strength and speed of the move beyond $1500.

As long time readers know, gold acts as a thermometer measuring the health of the global economy. A strong move up suggests the patient is running a high fever. While the gold pullback is welcome, the patient is far from cured. It is our expectation that the consolidation/pullback will be short lived. Perhaps several weeks at most. We then anticipate another strong move up in the gold market.

Some of the charts we are watching suggest big problems ahead for the US and world economy.

Consider the following:

That is quite a large bear flag on a weekly chart of the Vampire Squid. If it can't hold up, what risk assets can?

The US dollar has been in a slow motion rising pattern for some time with increasing signs of weakness. With rapidly falling bond yields (interest rates) is certainly appears to be ready to roll over. Note that gold has been rising despite some dollar strength. What will happen when the dollar weakens to the index level of 95 or 91?

Yields on 10 year US bonds are plummeting. 16.8 translates to 1.68% yield. 2 year bonds are 1.66% today. This means the yield curve is almost completely inverted as there is only a 0.02% difference between 10 year and 2 year bonds. When the 10 year yield falls below the 2 year, a recession is almost guaranteed within 6 to 9 months. And the Federal Reserve has only cut interest rates once, a quarter percent.

Overall, the bright picture of late 2017, early 2018 has dimmed considerably. Central banks are essentially out of bullets as rates approach the zero lower boundary.
Bond defaults will soon be on the horizon.
Got gold?

Gold Is Tricky Now

2019-07-24T16:17:00.001-06:00

After an intense rally for two months, it might be time for the precious metal to consolidate.

While it seems logical that gold needs to rest, several stocks should cause us to question whether it will or not.

The charts below show gold's rally and the rally of the Exchange Traded Fund GDX.

As the charts show, the gold miners, GDX are in need of a pullback and consolidation as they are extended and divergences are in place on the indicators.

However, under the hood of GDX we find five stocks that have not yet broken out but are right at resistance. Specifically, AUY, IAG, BVN, CDE, and HMY all look like they want to move higher soon.

So despite divergences in place on GDX, it is possible that very little consolidation takes place before we surge higher. Right now our view is defensive, but are prepared to re-buy if a breakout occurs.
We shall see in the next few days what the ECB, BOJ and Federal Reserve say about interest rates that will trigger a breakout or pullback.

Gold Blasts Off

2019-06-19T20:05:00.000-06:00

My view:

Gold just raised its middle finger at the banking cartel and has broken through a 6 year resistance area around $1365 in the quiet hours after the New York close today.

Now we need to see it hold above the 1360 - 1365 area tomorrow and fund managers will pile on board the golden magic carpet ride.

While we were expecting some consolidation after the FOMC announcement today, the shiny metal had other plans as a huge short covering ensued.

The pattern now targets $1499 at a minimum, and probably $1530 longer term or higher.

The Federal Reserve Is Losing Control

2019-06-06T19:49:00.000-06:00

The Federal Reserve, recently so optimistic about the US economy, is hinting at changing its tune.
A few days ago they hinted at openness toward interest rate cuts, as the bond market (2 year note particularly) plunged. The gold market this week has taken its cue from the rising tensions globally and falling bond yields. Now, as the chart below suggests, the gold market may soon break out as the Fed's management of the economy sours.
A clean break above $1360 suggests a move of $170 higher to the $1500 plus range. The timeline remains undefined for now, but breakout does appear imminent unless the Fed and banks can coordinate a managed decline in the paper bullion market.
We watch and wait.

What Will Trigger The Boom In Gold Prices?

2019-05-14T12:11:00.000-06:00

My view:

Stephen Roach, formerly of Morgan Stanley, also known as the "bear of Wall Street" lived in China for some years and is highly familiar with its economy and politics. His assessment is probably accurate that a dispute that lasts more than a few months threatens to drag the global economy down with it as tariffs pile up.
Combine this threat with a stock market rally that is very long in the tooth, extended price to earnings valuations, and a US dollar that looks set to weaken and we have a very bullish set up for precious metals for safe haven demand.
Consider the chart below with its 6 year basing pattern.

The symmetry target is 1499-1500, while the basing pattern itself could measure into the low 1600s.
The investor should beware current developments, and consider how the Central Bank is likely to react to a slowing economy and a yield curve inversion that now appears imminent.

Hope Rises Through The Ashes

2019-04-20T17:27:00.002-06:00

La Pieta Notre Dame Cathedral

Notre Dame Burning - The West Comitting Suicide In Slow Motion

2019-04-16T14:08:00.000-06:00

From Incerto: The Most Intolerant Wins: The Dictatorship of the Small Minority
by Nassim Nicolas Taleb

Yes, an intolerant minority can control and destroy democracy. Actually, as we saw, it will eventually destroy our world.

So, we need to be more than intolerant with some intolerant minorities. It is not permissible to use “American values” or “Western principles” in treating intolerant Salafism (which denies other peoples’ right to have their own religion). The West is currently in the process of committing suicide.

Woman charged over failed terror attack on Notre Dame in Paris

Sept 11, 2016

A 29-year-old woman has been charged over a failed jihadist attack near Paris’s Notre Dame cathedral as French politicians continue to argue about how to deal with the country’s severe terror threat.
The woman, named as Ornella G, was linked to a women’s terror “commando” that the Paris prosecutor said was guided by Islamic State from Syria. Several women have been arrested in France in recent days as police believed a cell was about to attack Paris’s Gare de Lyon station, days after trying to blow up a car near Notre Dame.
The commando – including a 23-year-old woman who had been engaged at different times to two French extremists who carried out attacks this summer – illustrated how extensive new terror cells have been able to form in France since the November attacks that killed 130 in Paris last year. A 15-year-old boy was also arrested and questioned at the weekend over links to the failed plot.

My view:

Who is responsible for the fire in Notre Dame Cathedral?

Is it, as the early official line says, an accident set off by a construction worker?
Is it, as some other early reports suggest, arson started in two locations?
Is there another explanation?

Our view is the authorities are not trustworthy to release all relevant information on this tragic event. We do know from past attacks that Jihadists do not give up if the first attempt fails, as we saw after the initial the attack on the World Trade Center in New York in February 1993. Indeed, if there is a jihadist link, they may very well cover up the evidence as it is not convenient to the "enlightened" liberal political mind. Already there have been newspaper articles claiming the evil "far right" will use this event to "keep Europe white" and other such drivel. It seems to us that the truth is very difficult to discern as newspapers and television media participate in keeping the diversification narrative going no matter what.

Regardless of who is to blame for this terrible event, it highlights what a poison liberalism is with its intolerance of any view other than the politically correct one. Islam has clearly made inroads into Europe deeper than ever before, and its own intolerant view of others religions is only just beginning to be known. As Nassim Taleb, who is from Lebanon, points out, an intolerant and stubborn minority can control and ultimately destroy democracy. Functional democracy depends on tolerance of other views, which both Islam and Marxism deny.