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Will Snow Conditions be "Up in the Air"?

2012-01-15T00:52:25+00:00

Will snow conditions be "Up in the Air" for the Pacific Northwest?

Eventful series of storms will influence the Pacific Northwest over the next several days; rain, snow, wind, and ice are some of the things to anticipate. Weather conditions changed significantly as a cold front swept through the region earlier this morning. Questions mixed with concern have come forward as to whether snow will blanket the Pacific Northwest over the next couple days.

Current conditions show an upper level low positioned just off the coast of Vancouver Island. The cold front associated with this system pressed across the Washington and Oregon coast early this morning bringing rain and strong winds. As the system works its way southeastward toward central Puget Sound, it will continue to rotate in low/mid-level clouds and moisture over the next 24 hours. Snow levels are lined at 700ft throughout the day.

Tonight is the where transformation of the storm will take place and have significant impact on the region. Depending how fast this current system tracks inland will have a noteworthy influence of snow across much of western half of Washington. Rain showers will persist into the early evening hours through the low lands, but as the cold air mass moves in behind the cold front, temperatures will drop a few degrees below the freezing mark and the rain showers will shape to snow. Freezing levels will drop from 700ft to sea level during evening hours. The unstable air will generate snow across most of the region, western slopes of hills and mountains and higher terrain will see a significant sum of snow accumulation from this storm between 3-5inches, while sea level areas can expect lighter accumulation measuring below half inch to a “dusting”.

Sunday the system will have positioned itself over Washington continuing to filter in an onshore flow. The backside of the storm is where we will see an increased chance of snow accumulation. The low lands between Seattle and Tacoma will see fewer snow showers due to the downslope off the Olympic Mountains. As the low spins inland winds will shift from a southwesterly flow to northwesterly by Sunday afternoon. This shift can allow for another round of snow development streaming in moisture from the Pacific from the north as opposed to the west where terrain can potentially hinder the flow of snow into the Seattle and Tacoma areas.

The cold air will persist into next week as another system arrives late Tuesday night encompassing cold air and moisture. Mountains will have another hit of snow accumulation while rain showers dominate the low lands. Extensive cloudiness associated with the disturbances will spawn rain Wednesday and Thursday.

Take note when traveling over the next few days, even if there are no signs of snow where you live, the roads will be icy during the morning and evening hours.

Statistics: Posted by EricaS — Sun Jan 15, 2012 12:52 am — Replies 0 — Views 81

White Christmas for the Pacific Northwest?

2011-12-25T09:10:12+00:00

A strong upper level trough working its way from the Pacific Ocean, is setting up to deliver a series of systems across much of the U.S. for the next couple weeks. Fortunately, its first impression will kick off the Christmas spirit in the Pacific Northwest. But will conditions be in favor for white Christmas? Mother Nature is cutting it close…

Over the next week, Pacific Northwest will experience a relief to the December dry spell with a run of systems progressing through the region bringing wet weather. These systems are scheduled to rotate through about every 24 hours.

Next incoming system is due to reach the Pacific Northwest early Sunday morning. A cold front associated with the system will approach Washington and Oregon from the west, ushering in a moderate amount of precipitation that will last most the morning on Sunday. The precipitation will begin on the west coast around 5am working towards the interior by 8am. By afternoon, most areas along the west coast will clear as the system moves eastward. Areas along the coast, Olympic Peninsula, and Watcom County will contain the most measurable rainfall with between 0.8” -1.6”.

Saturday evening, Washington skies will remain clear allow for radiational cooling producing fog across the majority of South Puget Sound and interior region.

Temperatures will remain persistent this week reaching the upper 40’s, while overnight lows will be in the mid-30’s. The mild temperatures will have an impact on the snow levels starting Sunday evening; the freezing mark will linger above most of the passes at around 4000’. By Monday morning skies will clear allowing for temperatures to drop. As the temperatures drop, it will permit the next system to generate snow at 2000’ in the passes Monday morning. With that said, Washingtonians will not see snow in the lower elevations this week, let alone for Christmas day.

With the passing of the first system on Sunday, precipitation will give way to dry conditions and partly cloudy skies. This break will only last so long, as the next system begins to build for Monday evening where rain showers will return to the region.

It seems as though we have all the right ingredients for snow, but why is not happening? The reason for this particular system is due to the filtering warm moisture. The upper level trough is pushing warm air from the south pacific toward the Pacific Northwest; there’s enough moisture, but the air isn’t cool enough to generate snow in the lower elevations.

As these systems sweep through the northwest they will continue on toward the central U.S. continuing to filter in moisture for the rest of the U.S.

Statistics: Posted by EricaS — Sun Dec 25, 2011 9:10 am — Replies 0 — Views 89

Southwest Region: Oct 25th-28th

2011-10-25T18:49:37+00:00

Southwest Region: Oct 25th-28th
Cooler temperatures and windy conditions are expected to show across much of the west and southwest states this week as a trough of low pressure continues to deepen and slide southward.

The developing storm will depart the Pacific Northwest en route to the southwest region by Wednesday. A cold front associated with the low pressure system, will sweep through the region late Tuesday allowing for a significant drop in temperatures over night through cities like Denver, Las Vegas, Flagstaff, Phoenix, and Albuquerque. This storm will primarily affect Colorado and Utah and northern and central portions of Arizona and New Mexico; neighboring states like California and Texas will also be impacted by this system. To exemplify temperature change that will take place over the next couple days, you will see a list below with cities, day, and day time temperature highs in degrees Fahrenheit:

Denver
Mon: 79, Tues:56, Wed: 33, Thurs: 41
Las Vegas
Mon: 87, Tues: 82, Wed: 63, Thurs: 66
Flagstaff
Mon: 67, Tues: 64, Wed: 52, Thurs: 55
Phoenix
Mon: 92, Tues: 90, Wed: 79, Thurs: 80
Albuquerque
Mon: 77, Tues: 71, Wed: 64, Thurs: 52
Amarillo
Mon: 84, Tues: 83, Wed: 51, Thurs: 48

The cities chosen are to give you an idea where the storm will have impact. The temperatures are one way to determine where the storm will track as much colder air working in will produce significant temperature drops Wednesday.

Tuesday, will start out calm with winds out of the south/southwest ushering in moisture from the Gulf of California. Once the cold front pushes through Tuesday night, winds will rev up shifting north/northeast contributing surface wind speeds between 15-25mph with gusts up to 35mph. Following the gusty winds will be an onset of scattered showers throughout the region.

Satellite imagery illustrates high and mid level clouds that will continue to work their way in from southern California to Arizona and New Mexico Wednesday. As the storm works into the higher terrain, the sunny skies will give way to increasing cloud cover becoming overcast Wednesday. The current radar shows a weak reflectivity of rain showers moving into the southwest region, but note the additional moisture from the Gulf will interact with the trough as it continues to deepen increasing chances for precipitation.

Wednesday is the transformation of this storm, converting Tuesday’s rain to freezing rain and scattered snow showers. Snow amounts will vary throughout the region. Snow levels will drop to 6,500ft in the Rockies extending to White Mountains and Sangre De Cristo summits. Northern Arizona and New Mexico can expect measurable snow from 1-2inches above 7,500ft. Don’t hold your breath just yet, Denver will show off what this storm is really made of so to speak, with amounts reaching 1-2ft.

Overall, this storm will be a sigh of relief, especially for areas that have seen moderate and extreme drought. Just over two months ago, Phoenix recorded four consecutive days of maximum temperatures at or above 113 degrees F.

The wave of cooler weather will press out Friday as a ridge of high pressure slides in behind the exiting low. A dry atmosphere with light winds, clear skies, and near normal seasonal temperatures will persist through the weekend into early next week.

Statistics: Posted by EricaS — Tue Oct 25, 2011 6:49 pm — Replies 0 — Views 204

Fires, Flash Flooding and Extreme Heat Across the Southwest!

2011-06-29T02:18:26+00:00

Hot weather has been scorching the southwestern states with temperatures reaching near 115 degrees fahrenheit in some desert areas. Heat advisories have been issued across the southwestern states as the forecast for hot weather is expected this upcoming weekend. There will be a short relief from the blazing heat Wednesday and Thursday as a significant low pressure makes its way in from the coast. Although this system will bring temperatures down a few degrees from current conditions, it may also pose a threat for thunderstorms and flash flooding.

Over the past several days, high pressure has caused above average temperatures that have soared to near 115 degrees in south and central AZ. Low pressure will relive most of AZ and NM from the extreme heat as it make its way inland from the coast of CA pushing the high pressure east into west TX Wednesday. Any type of moisture will be welcomed to the region not only because of the dry weather, but also because AZ and NM are only a couple of several southern states to be in a severe drought.

Wednesday and Thursday:
The strong low pressure system along the coast of northern CA, will deepen swinging east across southern NV Wednesday and continue into Utah early Thursday. This system will affect AZ and NM by rotating air flow and moisture out of the south while increasing humidity levels. Breezy conditions are expected with the passing of this system producing high winds especially in the afternoons. Southwest winds will range between 20 and 30 mph with higher gusts reaching from 40 to 50 mph mainly through Yavapai and Coconino counties. A modest amount of moisture will be carried in by this system, enhancing mid level clouds and creating instability with chances of isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms through central and northern AZ and western NM. The relief from hot weather will be short lived; temperatures are only expected to drop 5 to 7 degrees cooler than the present 115 degrees, evening temperatures will remain in the mid-80’s.

Friday through Sunday:
The system will quickly move east as high pressure builds in behind it. High pressure will expand west and remain stationary over the four corners through early next week, again, rising temperatures to above normal. By Saturday, winds will die down to around 10 mph possibly becoming variable at times. Valley and desert temperatures will be between 110- 115 degrees, while higher terrain should expect temps in the mid-90’s. Drier air associated with the building of the high is expected through the weekend over most areas; however, a southerly air flow is anticipated, thus ushering in some moisture. So this means that showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur. Look for evening thunderstorms north of Phoenix and areas across northern NM. With the threat of thunderstorms, this will cause concerns for current and potential wildfires.

How the weather will affect the past and present fires…
At present, the Wallow and Locust Fires in AZ are fully contained. The Wallow Fire is now named the largest fire in state history burning over 500,000 acres of the White Mountains. The newest fire, Los Alamos NM Fire, is only 10% contained (as of 6/28) is causing concerns as it threatens the area just northwest of Sante Fe. Also, three new fires are burning in western TX. As the wind conditions pick up over the next couple days and low humidity across AZ and NM, the potential for fires to spread and or grow may be a risk.

Now, AZ is notorious for its flash flooding. The ground being so dry year-round receiving little rain to keep the ground moist; therefore, when it rains especially during the monsoon (summer) season the rain doesn’t absorb into the ground and has nowhere to go, so it accumulates above ground thus, flooding. The “flash” part of the expression lives up to its meaning. It could rain for 5 minuets in a dry terrain, and flood within that short amount of time. With the current outlook, it seems as though we will be seeing a fair amount of flash flooding over the next several days continuing throughout the summer.

These details are remarkable, with this said, these facts play a significant part in future weather conditions. The Wallow and Locust fires have left behind a significant amount of charred land and debris; this makes the ground more at risk to flash flooding. Over this next week and weekend we are expecting to see rain showers and isolated thunderstorms, as stated earlier. This poses a major concern to communities who live near streams or rivers that run near the charred areas. Moderate rain lasting anywhere from 5 to 10 minuets acts like pavement in these locations, it will cause flash flooding to move quickly carrying debris downstream. During the summer, rain showers and thunderstorms occur during the day and evening hours-these are the times that flash flooding will happen. This could be threatening to property and or life-take proper precautions.

A lot of weather has taken place over the past month! The weather will continue to remain hot through the Fourth of July weekend in the southwestern states as the high pressure builds in Friday. Probability of thunderstorms will be present late in the day from now and into the weekend. If traveling, make sure you have plenty of water and sunscreen!

Statistics: Posted by EricaS — Wed Jun 29, 2011 2:18 am — Replies 0 — Views 178

Illinois Forecast 6/14/2011

2011-06-14T17:28:19+00:00

Current Situation: Temperatures have been drastically cooler the past few days compared to the 90's we experienced last week. The St. Louis metropolitan area and points south have been getting hit with heavy rain and thunderstorms this morning, with temperatures in the mid 60's. Central and Northern Illinois experienced rain this morning as well, but has since moved out, resulting in cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid to upper 60's as well, with a few areas with tempreatures in the lower 70's. Currently, the Storm Prediction Center has placed a slight risk for West-Central and Southern Illinois for today, with the main risk being damaging winds and large hail.

Forecast

Today/Tonight: The threat for thunderstorms remains for West-Central and Southern Illinois, as the warm front that is now positioned in Missouri lifts to the Northeast. Lingering showers will persist for the most part in Southern Illinois, but the main threat for these storms will be late this afternoon into tonight. Northern and Central Illinois will get these storms later on tonight/early tomorrow morning. Temperatures for the most part will try to creep into the upper 70's, and a few spots may reach 80 degrees.

Tomorrow: Showers and storms will continue to persist in Central and Northern Illinois in the morning, and the threat of showers and thunderstorms will continue throughout the rest of the day. High temperatures in Southern Illinois will be in the low to mid 80's, while Northern Illinois will see temperatures in the low to mid 60's, as the warm front continues to progress to the northeast.

Thursday: Illinois should be rain-free all day long, with temperatures ranging in the upper 70's in Northern Illinois and Chicagoland, and mid to upper 80's in Southern Illinois and the St. Louis metro area. Skies should be fair for the most part.

I would like to thank Nicolle for giving me this opportunity to forecast for whatever-weather.com! I am proud to be a part of this community, and hope to hone my forecasting skills, and stay up-to-date for the job market (currently looking, as I am fresh out of college).

Statistics: Posted by andersondavid1989 — Tue Jun 14, 2011 5:28 pm — Replies 1 — Views 165

Southwest Region (June 9th-12th)

2011-06-10T00:20:45+00:00

The heat is on-and it’s smokin’! This has been an incredibly busy week of weather across the U.S. with record breaking temperatures on the east coast, storm watches across the midwest, and wildfires raging in Arizona. Not to mention the first hurricane of the season developing in the Pacific!

The southwest has been enduring temperatures in the triple digits over the last week and this is only the beginning. High pressure over the southern U.S. will continue to produce a warm and dry pattern specifically across Arizona and New Mexico through the weekend. Winds will be out of the southwest between 10 and 20mph with higher afternoon gusts likely.

Dry weather, low humidity, and winds are the worst possible ingredients the atmosphere could offer for these wildfires to persist. As of early Thursday morning, the Wallow Fire crossed the state line into New Mexico burning 600 acres so far and counting. Firefighters are working hard to gain some control, but with the weather conditions looking to remain as they have the past week…little luck is in their favor. This has grown to be the second largest wildfire in Arizona’s history. Red Flag warnings have been issued across both AZ and NM and now that this fire is raging eastward, problems could affect western portions of Texas. Three states could be subjected to rolling blackouts. For New Mexico: Albuquerque southward should be aware that as the smoke plume travels eastward; visibility will reduce below 3 miles in some areas.

Early this weekend a weak disturbance will pass just north of AZ and NM allowing wind flow to become westerly causing smoke plume to shift from a northeasterly to an easterly path. Temperatures will drop a few degrees into the upper 90’s in the valley areas, while temperatures in the higher elevations will fall into the mid 70’s.

I would like to take note of an increased possibility of isolated thunderstorms Friday evening across the Sangre De Cristo Mountains in New Mexico due to the passing of a cold front. This front is associated with the weak disturbance I mentioned earlier in my discussion. This cold front will pass over the region not only flirting with the likelihood of thunderstorms but increased wind speeds. Significant rain is not expected to result from these thunderstorms, which is something we need to help weaken the Wallow Fire.

On a more exciting note, we have officially declared our first hurricane of the season! Hurricane Adrian has developed into a category 4 and is tracking well off the coast of Mexico in the eastern Pacific. The movement of Adrian is expected to track in a northwesterly direction, away from land, toward cooler waters of the Pacific which will in turn slow the intensity of the storm.

Statistics: Posted by EricaS — Fri Jun 10, 2011 12:20 am — Replies 0 — Views 149

Southwest Region (May 14-17)

2011-05-14T06:05:24+00:00

The weather over the next several days will be a result of a deepening low off the west coast that will move inland bringing rain showers and breezy conditions. Ahead of the system, a disturbance will push into the region on Saturday cooling temperatures 5 to 10 degrees from this early weeks daytime highs. This cooling trend will begin Saturday and continue into early next week along with winds that will rev up this weekend as system approaches.

A weak disturbance will greet the southwest region Saturday with an increased cloud cover. As the disturbance passes over the region it will destabilize the atmosphere aiding in the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms across northern portions of AZ and NM.

By Sunday, the deepening low off the west coast will begin to dig southward along CA. As the system rotates off the coast of northern CA, it will set up a tight west to east pressure gradient across the southwest, leading to windy conditions. Winds will increase from up to 30-45mph with sustained winds of 15-25mph In most areas. As the system moves inland, a surface low will deepen in central NV. A cold front associated with this low, will sweep across the region being the ingredient that will subsidize the cooling of temps over the nest several days. Daytime highs will fall to the mid 60's. As the system continues to slide in from the west, it will rotate a southwesterly air flow, allowing for an increase in moisture and instability. Afternoon thunderstorms will be expected in the higher elevations with a possible chance of hail. Most of the moisture will result in moderate amounts of rain through Utah, extending down into northern portions of AZ and NM.

The lower elevation, including Phoenix and southern NM, will have little influence from this system. Skies will be mostly clear through the weekend, but along with the rest of the forecast, these areas will also see an increase in winds on Sunday. Daytime temperatures will cool off to the mid 80's

This system will depart to the east by the middle of next, letting clear skies and warm temperatures return to the southwest.

Statistics: Posted by EricaS — Sat May 14, 2011 6:05 am — Replies 0 — Views 130

Southwest AZ/NM (April 29th-May1st)

2011-04-29T21:26:51+00:00

Spring is in full swing! The season of spring, is known for having windy weather in Arizona and New Mexico. The transition of the jet stream will retreat north and high’s and low’s will continue to alternate through the region. As mentioned before, pressure gradient is a significant indication to help identify areas of high wind. You can think of pressure gradients acting like an accordion, as two main areas of pressure come together, the force increases the air flow, revving up the wind.

An upper low along the coast, will dig its way down from the NW allowing a surface low to be positioned over Arizona. This will introduce a cold front to the area Saturday, starting its track on the NW corner of AZ then swinging down to the SE across to the southern part of New Mexico. Cooler temperatures are expected behind the cold front. Higher elevations will see temperatures in the lower 50’s and lower elevations, lower 80‘s.

The air mass is dry and stable; therefore, widespread precipitation is unlikely. Humidity will also remain low. With the approach of this system, winds speeds will increase between 20-35mph with higher gusts likely. Winds will be out of the west and with the passing of the cold font, winds will shift to a more southwesterly flow.

As the system exists to the east late Sunday, a High pressure will slide its way in allowing temps to warm up and winds reducing to 10-20mph. By next week, warm weather will return; higher elevations, upper 60’s, lower elevations, mid 90’s.

Statistics: Posted by EricaS — Fri Apr 29, 2011 9:26 pm — Replies 0 — Views 146

New England Forecast

2011-04-28T15:36:53+00:00

As I return to New England forecasting (sorry for my absence, busy April), it seems Spring has finally arrived! The humidity and temperature are rising and thunderstorms are in the forecast, definitely spring time.

Today will feel a little on the muggy side as temperatures rise into the 70’s and dewpoints inch into the 60’s. Conditions will be cloudy and breezy. A strong cold front will slowly work its way across New England today and tomorrow. The speed of the front will be determined by the upper level low that has cut off from the main jet stream. As the front moves west to east, rain and thunderstorms will spread across New England. Precipitation could be heavy at times and winds may pick up in these areas.

As the front passes through your area, temperatures and dewpoints will drop and winds will die down. Tonight, lows will be in the upper 40’s and 50’s and fog is possible for southeastern MA. Showers and clouds will linger tomorrow as the slow moving cold front is still exiting the region. Temperatures will only reach the upper 50’s and 60’s on Friday. Clouds will partly clear tomorrow and winds will increase again tomorrow afternoon. The clouds will return for Friday night and the northern reaches of New England could see a few passing showers as an upper level trough passes over head. Temperatures will drop into the 40’s and winds will die down.

High pressure moves in for Saturday. Clouds will clear through the morning and conditions will be in the 60’s and dry. The clear skies will continue into Saturday night and temperatures will drop into the 30’s and 40’s. As an upper level ridge works over the area on Sunday, temperatures will rise into the 60’s and 70’s and clouds will move in Sunday evening.

Monday looks to be a little wet right now as another cold front will move through. So with a cold front ahead of the weekend high pressure, it looks like we have a lovely weekend in store for New England.

Statistics: Posted by KristinR — Thu Apr 28, 2011 3:36 pm — Replies 2 — Views 298

Southwest AZ/NM (April 22nd-25th)

2011-04-23T01:50:40+00:00

It has been a windy week thus far in the southwest. These breezy conditions are in the forecast to continue through this Easter weekend.

A trough will make its way in from the northwest early this weekend with an associated surface low passing slightly to the north of Arizona Saturday. With the passage and position of this low pressure, it is likely that the higher elevations will see an increase in mid to high level clouds and scattered rain showers Saturday and Sunday. The central and southern portions of the state, will experience mostly clear skies and temperatures a few degrees below the seasonal average. This system will move eastward into New Mexico by Sunday, producing comparable weather as in AZ. Another surface low will develop to the east in west Texas allowing breezy conditions to redevelop throughout the eastern half of NM.

Both states have endured dry conditions over the past couple of weeks and with the limited amount of rain expected this weekend, fire conditions are high.

Weekend Temps:
Phoenix - upper 80’s
Flagstaff - lower 60’s
Albuquerque - mid 70’s

In conclusion, the southwest region will experience an increase in wind speeds and slightly cooler temperatures. As this trough departs to the east Monday, a high pressure will move in, warming temperatures and diminishing cloud cover for the majority of next week. If you are hiding Easter eggs this Sunday, make sure they are tucked away in their hiding spot…for the high winds may roll them out of their spot for easier visibility!

Statistics: Posted by EricaS — Sat Apr 23, 2011 1:50 am — Replies 0 — Views 148

Storm Stories

2011-04-20T11:46:52+00:00

Now that we've had a chance to assess the damage and start the clean up process, I'd love to know where every one was during the severe storm system's march across the eastern half of the US at the end of last week.

Whatever-Weather.com is based in Raleigh, NC, and thankfully, my family and I had very little damage to show. We were incredibly lucky. When the tornado that tore through Sanford and Raleigh was nearby, we were in the downstairs bathroom, calmly entertaining my young niece and nephew. I tracked the storm on my iPhone using the RadarScope app, and gave the all clear when the storm had passed. Many of my friends suffered property damage including three houses that are now unlivable. Still, we are all grateful to be alive and well, especially since many lives were lost in that three day span.

Where were you and how were you affected?

Statistics: Posted by NicolleM — Wed Apr 20, 2011 11:46 am — Replies 0 — Views 314

New England Weather Forecast

2011-04-13T16:07:08+00:00

Today will be a day of April showers, or really April soaking rain. A spring Nor’easter has brought it’s fury to New England for the day. Rain will taper off in southern New England late this afternoon and that line will slowly move north overnight. The heaviest rain should be gone by morning and only showers will linger in northern VT, NH and ME tomorrow. Overnight temperatures will be in the 30’s through most of New England and in the low 40’s in southern New England. Tomorrow temperatures will warm into the 50’s and low 60’s, though the breezy conditions will make it feel chillier. Clouds will linger in the morning from the upper level trough over head but will begin to clear in the afternoon.

Thursday evening temperatures drop as a cold front moves through New England. Temperatures overnight will be lower than normal, in the 20’s and 30’s. Winds will calm through the night and the sky will continue to clear as high pressure moves into the region from Canada. Friday looks to be a beautiful day. Temperatures will be a little on the cold end, in the 40’s in VT, northern NH and ME, and in the 50’s in southern NH, MA and RI. With the high pressure and an upper level ridge come mostly sunny skies, leaving us with a lovely start to our weekend.

Friday night will remain clear allowing temperatures to drop again overnight. Temperatures will be in the 20’s in ME and NH, 30’s in VT and low 40’s in MA and RI. Saturday will start off with clear skies before the clouds and showers roll in ahead of our next batch of rain. Temperatures will be in the 40’s and 50’s. The low pressure system and upper level trough approach from the Midwest throughout the day on Saturday, hitting New England Saturday night and Sunday. I’ll try to post an update about Sunday a little later this week, but right now Sunday looks to be a wash out.

In conclusion, Friday night and Saturday morning appear to be the high points of the weekend weather forecast, but Saturday afternoon shouldn’t be terrible. Sunday will not be pretty though. Try to stay dry today, but enjoy the blooming spring flowers tomorrow and Friday.

Statistics: Posted by KristinR — Wed Apr 13, 2011 4:07 pm — Replies 0 — Views 175

Southwest AZ/NM (April 6th-8th)

2011-04-06T01:35:01+00:00

Now that the southwest is shifting into spring mode, warming trends are lasting longer with fewer periods of winter temperatures and precipitation that once dominated the region weeks at a time. This week we will see something a little different…two separate systems will work their way into the southwest only a couple days apart from one another.

First, a system will spin in moisture off the coast of southern California directing rain showers toward Arizona and New Mexico by early Wednesday. Ahead of this system tonight (Tuesday) we will see areas have increasingly cloudy skies. As this low pressure system approaches the southwest, temperatures will cool off slightly to the mid 50‘s in the higher elevations and mid 80‘s in the valley areas. Something to keep in mind with this particular system, is the position of it. Although temperatures will cool off, this low originated over an area of warmer water, so this will play a factor in the type of precipitation that the southwest will receive. As this storm makes its way in from the southwest, it will spin in subtropical warm air which will raise snow levels to 7500ft. Most of the precipitation will be light rain showers. As this system progresses toward northeastern NM, considerable instability will be present allowing for the possibility of thunderstorms across NM Wednesday evening. By early Thursday this system will lift into the four corners, clouds will dissipate and leave AZ and NM with clear skies for most of the day.

Second, a low pressure from the north will hit the southwest on Friday. This storm will be much stronger and will have considerable amounts of precipitation compared to Wednesday's storm. In the top left hand corner of the surface map below, you can see the low “L” off the coast of Washington; this is the next feature that will eventually be positioned over the southwest. This system originated in the Gulf of Alaska and will first make an appearance in the NW dumping rain (no surprise) on Wednesday then dive south toward AZ and NM. As the system works its way down the west coast, it will continue to deepen drawing moisture into the southwest. Western AZ will be the first to see rain then northern and central AZ and so on. Snow levels will drop to around 5300ft, everything below, will see rain. The only area I suspect that will be free of any precipitation in AZ, will be Yuma Valley due to the fact that it sits so far south of the system’s track and this area generally sees very little rain year round. In fact, the Yuma Valley is the driest location in the state of AZ receiving just over 2.5inches of rain a year. By Friday temperatures will fall to mid 30‘s in the higher terrain and lower 60‘s in the valley areas.

As we near the weekend, I will report back with a more detailed forecast for the second storm.

Statistics: Posted by EricaS — Wed Apr 06, 2011 1:35 am — Replies 0 — Views 156

New England [April Fool's Day of 97: The Sequel?]

2011-03-31T20:06:15+00:00

Fourteen years ago tomorrow, New England was hit by the massive April Fool’s Day storm of ’97. As a youngin of 11, I remember waking up to a surprise Snow Day and wondering why it would snow a foot in April. This year, the current youngins of 11 may get a similar surprise tomorrow morning! With a developing Nor’easter getting ready to bear down on New England the threat of snow has become more and more prevalent. How much will we get? Will all of New England end up white? Is this an April Fool’s joke?

This is no joke. Some areas of New England could see a foot of snow or more by tomorrow night. Precipitation will slowly move north from southern New England this evening. The low pressure system which is currently off the coast of the Carolinas will move up the coast tonight and strengthen. The major part of the low will hit New England tomorrow, though there is a good amount of leading precipitation associated with the storm. Precipitation will start tonight and will be heavy at times. The heaviest amount of precipitation will fall over southern New England, but temperatures will be too warm to allow for significant snowfall in these areas. Areas of western MA, southern VT, central NH and central and northern ME could see 6-12 inches of snow with isolated higher amounts. In these regions, all or most of the precipitation from this storm will be snow. Southeastern NH, central MA and southern ME will see more rain mixing in with the snow, so snow totals will be 2-6 inches. These precipitation totals are based on the projected location of the freezing line. Snow totals could end up being more or less than these totals if that line moves to the south or north. Northern NH and VT will also see 2-6 inches of all snow only because the heaviest precipitation will stay to their south. Rhode Island and areas south and east of Boston may see a bit of snow mixing in with their rain. Snow totals will be small if anything, though rainfall amounts will be 1-2 inches in most areas.

Winds will pick up through the day tomorrow and will not drop until Saturday afternoon. Temperatures tonight will be in the 20’s and 30’s, tomorrow will be in the 30’s and low 40’s and tomorrow night will be in the 20’s and 30’s. The precipitation from the Nor’easter ends on Saturday as the strong upper level jet moves the low quickly out of New England. Clouds and flurries will linger as an upper level low develops overhead, keeping weak uplift in our area. Temperatures will be in the 30’s and 40’s during the day and 20’s to 40 overnight. Sunday could see a little bit of sun breaking through the clouds, but clouds will dominate as an upper level trough counteracts the clearing effects of the high pressure building into the region. The high pressure will win out by Sunday night, producing clear skies for Sunday night and Monday. Temperatures will be in the 30’s and 40’s both Sunday and Monday and the 20’s and 30’s Sunday night.

Mother Nature will definitely be celebrating the mean spirited holiday that is tomorrow, but hopefully any snow that falls will quickly melt or be washed away by those magical April showers (you know, the ones that bring May flowers). The next round of precipitation looks to be heading our way for Tuesday of next week and could be our first taste of those April showers. Until then, just remember, Spring will come, we just need to be a bit more patient. Now that I’ve given my thoughts of the snow totals, what do you think?

Statistics: Posted by KristinR — Thu Mar 31, 2011 8:06 pm — Replies 0 — Views 181

Northern Ohio Weather Forecast(Up Coming Weekend/Next Week)

2011-03-31T17:33:53+00:00

Forecast for up coming weekend and into next week (March 31, 2011 into early April)

The pattern over the last two weeks has been associated with a trough over the Great Lakes Region. This has kept the polar jet stream to our south, keeping much of our area below the average and down right chilly (temperatures a good 15 to 20 degrees below the average). We did see jump in temperatures one or two days, but then would fall right back below average.

This up coming weekend is no exception, remaining temperature wise below average with a weak low moving in from our northwest. We can see rain activity possibly mixing in with snow early in the day on Saturday, not the same of what we experienced yesterday with snowfall ranging from 1 to 5 inches across Northeast Ohio.

Here is some info on the pass month regarding snowfall total, total liquid precipitation received for the month at the Airport, also normal/records for today. The good news is that we are heading out of the month of March like a lamb today, with the snow continuing to melt.

PRECIPITATION (IN)
MONTH TO DATE 3.50

SNOWFALL (IN)
MONTH TO DATE 11.5
SINCE JUL 1 69.0

THE CLEVELAND OH CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
NORMAL RECORD YEAR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 52 80 1998
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 33 11 1923

By Monday of next week, a strong low is move across the Central Plains, expected to surge warm air in the state. Right now temperature could reach the upper 60’s in southern Ohio and only in the lower 50’s for our area. It all depends on how far north the warm front moves. It wants to get suppressed by a strong high pressure moving over the Mid-Atlantic. Moisture will develop along the warm front, followed by rain and storms over the central Ohio River Valley. Heavy rain will be the main threat for Northern Ohio, but could get a rumble of thunder too, since the atmosphere will be extremely instable to our south.

Below is a graphic of the Low position at this time on Monday night.

This next one is for Tuesday morning, heavy rain with the Low Pressure moving over Northern Ohio and a frontal passage into Tuesday Midday.

Temperatures not expected to drop off a whole lot Tuesday into Wednesday, as it looks like a ridge develops quickly in the mid-section of the country and begins to head eastward.

Sunday morning I’ll give an update to what we can expect Monday night into Tuesday.

Statistics: Posted by AntoninoS — Thu Mar 31, 2011 5:33 pm — Replies 1 — Views 203