Where’s the Bottom Blog

3.9 MOS OF SUPPLY—–Can you say Sellers Market?

Rick — Fri, 13 Jul 2012 14:17:05 +0000

Yes, we are now in a housing shortage here locally. Quote- “Every measure of real estate activity is positive when
comparing June 2012 with June 2011”. The word “Every” really hits home. 3.9 Months of supply is low. Very low. We have hit bottom.
It is time to stop listening to the Negative people who are in a rut from 4 years of being right! We are done losing value. Stable prices, and upward moving prices is now going to be the trend.

If you have something to sell, you are in the driver’s seat, but don’t get greedy, we still have to show upward swing in pricing and a trend to appraise.
If you are buying, you may as well lose the attitude that the sellers don’t have an option but to take your low ball half hearted offers!
Roll up your sleeves, take some risk, know your values and get in the game. Knowing what you are buying, how much it may take to fix it or build it, and how much value you have is key. Lightning fast decisions will help. Sitting back and hoping the seller will wear down will not happen.

Please read the link below to see the newest market report given by Airika Waible at Blu dot Realty, LLC.

http://www.rmlsweb.com/v2/public2/loadfile.asp?id=5879

If this link is broken, email airika@bludotrealty.com for the updated report.

PORTLAND JOB MARKET ranked 13th fastest recovery of 51 markets

Rick — Tue, 20 Mar 2012 14:33:52 +0000

After being on the top 10 highest unemployment list for years, Portland is being viewed as the 13th fastest growing/recovering job market.

I suppose it is not hard to improve at great lengths when we were so far off track, but none the less, we are recovering.

We have less inventory on the market, we have more jobs, we have low rates, and contrary to popular belief, WE ARE GOING TO SEE A RISE IN HOME PRICES.

Especially in the under 200k range of home. AND in new construction. Yes, builders, we are headed for a good cycle again, get out there and find some finished lots, find some financing and build a house!

Here is a link from Urbanophile- a city watch web site to show job performance across the nation.

http://www.urbanophile.com/2012/03/15/metro-job-recovery-in-2011/

Portland, OR 8 plex built in 2006 at 10% CASH ON CASH!

Rick — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 20:00:25 +0000

Bank Owned

8 Units at 1535 sf

Rents at 1100 each

Built 2006

10% Cash On Cash

THIS THING IS A STEAL

Offer 850k

I find great 10% deals I have found in town you should see!

Here are the financials as I run them through my spreadsheet

Rick Waible

City Redevelopment, LLC

bluric@yahoo.com

Disclaimer: The information, calculations & data presented in this report are believed to be accurate but are not guaranteed or warranted. The information contained in this report shall not be considered as a substitute

for legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. Please seek proper legal, tax, and real estate advice from a licensed professional before making any real estate investment decisions.

December Home Inventory the lowest in years!

Rick — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 14:27:43 +0000

5.3 months of supply. The lowest we have seen in the metro area since the bust. I know, I know, the second wave is going to wipe us out. Believe what you want, I for one have been down on the market for too long. It IS recovering here locally. I don’t care what is happening Nationally when it comes to our market for Real Estate. We have our own troubles and benefits. We have enjoyed the good they bring, and weathered the bad. It is time to say some good stuff about things around here. For one…..5.3 months of supply. There, I said it again. This is awesome. December was unusually good for weather, which makes people feel better. We have rates still on our side. Prices have adjusted down to affordable levels in many areas, and there are also things like time between when the first people started losing their homes and jobs, and time fixes things. As people get new jobs, and start slowly saving again, and living in the new market there is enough recovery that people are getting confident enough to buy homes. That is good for builders, developers, land owners, and everyone else connected to the industry. As we run out of finished lots, land will be more scarce for years to come. It is still almost impossible to get a development loan so finishing lots will be a game for the largest builders and firms, leaving less choices in new neighborhoods for families, less competition with the little guys. There will be an infill boom and like it or not, homes in good areas will start being picked over and viewed as lots, which will make the price of new homes go up in the city as well as the burbs. This is all good, and bad. Good that we are recovering, bad that we are headed right back to where we were if we are not careful. I know this time I am going to be more mindful of cycles, and am going to carry way less debt.

Get the rest of the report here ______ http://www.rmlsweb.com/v2/public2/loadfile.asp?id=5879

Portland Metro Market Action for October

Rick — Tue, 15 Nov 2011 14:26:51 +0000

I watch alot of things when following the market these days and one of the main things is Inventory. I like to compare year over year and compare the months. We finished October with a 6.8 month inventory which is about 10,012 listings for sale. Last October we had 10.7 mos. September was 6.7 and August was 6.2. We have been lower than 7.2 since March this year which is awesome compared to last year. I expect to stay in the 6 month range for Nov and Dec and then Dec sales will slow enough to make a seasonal rise in Jan and Feb to between 9 and 10 mos. Remember, previous posts I have mentioned we were at 19 mos in January 2009…..NINETEEN MONTHS is alot of homes on the market that are not selling. We have not seen that or even close to that since.

I also like to watch DOM- days on market. This number has been going up. Taking longer to sell homes overall in PDX metro. The top 3 fastest areas are NW Washington County at 89 days. Followed by NE Ptld which is actually high at 111 days and then a surprising entry…Milwaukie/Clackamas is at 118 days. All other areas are taking longer than 4 mos to sell a home. Take that into consideration when pricing the home.

Closed sales up 14.1% over last October

Pending sales up 15.1% over last October

There were 22% less listings than last October all helping that inventory stay lower.

And Pricing….yes, we are still losing some value. October showed 6.5% down from last year at this time. Hang on, we are not out of it yet…..

If you are buying and re-selling, every month you are losing .54% of value. Like catching falling knives.

If you comp a home at 200k today, and take 2 mos to rehab you need to account for a 1% price drop from your today pricing. List for 198k to stay at market, which is 3-4 mos market time more….so really you need to be closer to 195k to make sure you are pricing to stay ahead.

Catch the rest of the Portland Market Action here…

http://www.rmlsweb.com/v2/public2/loadfile.asp?id=5879

How some clients look to a Realtor…..TOO FUNNY!!!

Rick — Thu, 10 Nov 2011 13:53:49 +0000

A buddy of mine sent this to me yesterday. I laughed so hard I watched it 5 times!

Watch this video.

I want to sell my house | Xtranormal

“property is being sold subject to 24 CFR 206.125”

Rick — Fri, 05 Aug 2011 14:07:08 +0000

Ever seen listings that state this line? I looked it up on the HUD site and here is a breakdown of the statement. Real Estate Agents, buyers, investors all over the web are asking.

This is the section sited. If you have any questions you should ask a lawyer.

TITLE 24 – HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT

SUBTITLE B – REGULATIONS RELATING TO HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT

CHAPTER II – OFFICE OF ASSISTANT SECRETARY FOR HOUSING – FEDERAL HOUSING COMMISSIONER, DEPARTMENT OF HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT

SUBCHAPTER B – MORTGAGE AND LOAN INSURANCE PROGRAMS UNDER NATIONAL HOUSING ACT AND OTHER AUTHORITIES

PART 206 – HOME EQUITY CONVERSION MORTGAGE INSURANCE

subpart c – CONTRACT RIGHTS AND OBLIGATIONS

206.125 – Acquisition and sale of the property.

(a) Initial action by the mortgagee. (1) The mortgagee shall notify the Secretary whenever the mortgage is due and payable under the conditions stated in 206.27(c)(1), or one of the conditions stated in 206.27(c)(2) has occurred.

(2) After notifying the Secretary, and receiving approval of the Secretary when needed, the mortgagee shall notify the mortgagor that the mortgage is due and payable, unless the mortgage is due and payable by reason of the mortgagor’s death. The mortgagee shall require the mortgagor to (i) pay the mortgage balance, including any accrued interest and MIP, in full; (ii) sell the property for at least 95% of the appraised value as determined under 206.125(b), with the net proceeds of the sale to be applied towards the mortgage balance; or (iii) provide the mortgagee with a deed in lieu of foreclosure. The mortgagor shall have 30 days in which to comply with the preceding sentence, or correct the matter which resulted in the mortgage coming due and payable, before a foreclosure proceeding is begun.

(3) Even after a foreclosure proceeding is begun, the mortgagee shall permit the mortgagor to correct the condition which resulted in the mortgage coming due and payable and to reinstate the mortgage, and the mortgage insurance shall continue in effect. The mortgagee may require the mortgagor to pay any costs that the mortgagee incurred to reinstate the mortgagor, including forclosure costs and reasonable attorney’s fees. Such costs shall be paid by adding them to the mortgage balance.

The mortgagee may refuse reinstatement by the mortgagor if: (i) The mortgagee has accepted reinstatement of the mortgage within the past two years immediately preceeding the current notification to the mortgagor that the mortgage is due and payable; (ii) Reinstatement will preclude foreclosure if the mortgage becomes due and payable at a later date; or (iii) Reinstatement will adversely affect the priority of the mortgage lien.

(b) Appraisal. The mortgagee shall obtain an appraisal of the property no later than 30 days after the mortgagor is notified that the mortgage is due and payable, or no later than 30 days after the mortgagee becomes aware of the mortgagor’s death, or upon the mortgagor’s request in connection with a pending sale. The property shall be appraised no later than 15 days before a foreclosure sale. The appraisal shall be at the mortgagor’s expense unless the mortgage is due and payable. If the mortgage is due and payable, the appraisal shall be at the mortgagee’s expense but the mortgagee shall have a right to be reimbursed out of the proceeds of any sale by the mortgagor.

(c) Sale by mortgagor. Whether or not the mortgage is due and payable, the mortgagor may sell the property for at least the lesser of the mortgage balance or the appraised value (determined under 206.125(b)).

If the mortgage is due and payable at the time the contract for sale is executed, the mortgagor may sell the property for at least the lesser of the mortgage balance or five percent under the appraised value. The mortgagee shall satisfy the mortgage of record (and the Secretary will satisfy the second mortgage required under 206.27(e) of record) in order to facilitate the sale, provided that there are no junior liens (except the mortgage to secure payments by the Secretary under 206.27(e)) and all the net proceeds from the sale are paid to the mortgagee.

(d) Initiation of foreclosure. (1) The mortgagee shall commence foreclosure of the mortgage within six months of giving notice to the mortgagor that the mortgage is due and payable, or six months from the date of the mortgagor’s death if applicable, or within such additional time as may be approved by the Secretary.

(2) If the laws of the State in which the mortgaged property is located or if Federal bankruptcy law does not permit the commencement of the foreclosure within six months from the date of the notice to the mortgagor that the mortgage is due and payable, the mortgagee shall commence foreclosure within six months after the expiration of the time during which such foreclosure is prohibited by such laws.

(3) The mortgagee must give written notice to the Secretary within 30 days after the initiation of foreclosure proceedings, and must exercise reasonable diligence in prosecuting the foreclosure proceedings to completion and in acquiring title to and possession of the property. A time frame that is determined by the Secretary to constitute reasonable diligence for each State is made available to mortgagees.

(4) The mortgagee shall bid at the foreclosure sale an amount equal to the appraised value of the property.

(e) Other bidders at foreclosure sale. If a party other than the mortgagee is the successful bidder at the foreclosure sale, the net proceeds of sale shall be applied to the mortgage balance.

(f) Deed in lieu of foreclosure. (1) In order to avoid delays and additional expense as a result of instituting and completing a foreclosure action, the mortgagee shall accept a deed in lieu of foreclosure from the mortgagor if the mortgagee is able to obtain good and marketable title from the mortgagor.

(2) In exchange for the executed and delivered deed, the mortgagee shall cancel the credit instrument and deliver it to the mortgagor and satisfy the mortgage of record.

(g) Sale of the acquired property. (1) Upon acquisition of the property by foreclosure or deed in lieu of foreclosure, the mortgagee shall take possession of, preserve and repair the property and shall make diligent efforts to sell the property within six months from the date the mortgagee acquired the property. Repairs shall not exceed those required by local law and, in cases where the sale is made with a mortgage insured by the Secretary or guaranteed by the Secretary of Veterans Affairs, those necessary to meet the objectives of the property standards required for mortgages insured by the Secretary. No other repairs shall be made without the specific advance approval of the Secretary. The mortgagee shall sell the property for an amount not less than the appraised value (as provided under paragraph (b) of this section) unless written permission is obtained from the Secretary authorizing a sale at a lower price.

(2) Repairs shall not exceed those required by local law or the requirements of the Secretary of HUD or the Secretary of Veterans Affairs if the sale of the property is financed with a mortgage insured by the Secretary of HUD or guaranteed, insured or taken by the Secretary of Veterans Affairs.

(3) The mortgagee shall not enter into a contract for the preservation, repair or sale of the property with any officer, employee, owner of ten percent or more interest in the mortgagee or with any other person or organization having an identity of interest with the mortgagee or with any relative of such officer, employee, owner or person. (Approved by the Office of Management and Budget under control number 2528 0133) [54 FR 24833, June 9, 1989; 54 FR 32060, Aug. 4, 1989, as amended at 60 FR 42761, Aug. 16, 1995; 61 FR 49034, Sept. 17, 1996]

Portland Metro Market Report for May 2011

Rick — Wed, 15 Jun 2011 13:53:38 +0000

I am sure you will or have gotten the Portland Metro Area Market Report from a dozen sources but here it is again my way!

Cliff Notes and Highlights as I read the report:

Inventory:

Lowest it has been since October of 2009

11,925 Active Residential listings

This amount of listings would take 6.8 months to deplete

May 09 was 10.2

May 10 was 7.0

And let’s not forget the worst it has been at 19.2 mos.

Compared to May 2010:

Closed sales down 15%

Pending sales up 45.1% (chalk this up to the fact that ZERO or less homes went pending when they took the Tax Credit away!!!)

Average price declined 4.8% (don’t jump off the bridge yet)

Compared to April 2011:

Closed sales up 8.1%

Pending sales up 8.1%

Average price did not change much

Price Changes Comparing 5-31-2010 to 6-1-2011 to one year earlier:

West Portland- Down -0.7%

Northeast Portland – Down 0.9%

NW Washington Cty.- Down 1.5%

Biggest drops were in areas like:

Oregon City/Canby- Down 11.7%

Lake Oswego/West Linn- Down 11.5%

Hillsboro/Forest Grove- Down 10.7%

Days on Market (DOM):

Fastest time -North Portland 107 Days

Followed by- Northeast at 108 Days

And then – Hillsboro/Forest Grove 108 Days

Slowest time- West Portland 196 Days

And then – Oregon City/Canby 178 Days

Most of my friends, family, and business sphere is in Real Estate one way or another. Watching the trends is time consuming and often a burden but it does point to what is going on now and most importantly in the past. Through the data we can figure out what caused these events, compare them to the LOCAL pressures and market conditions to find great ways to invest, build, and work within this market. Good luck with your adventures and don’t forget to drop a line. I often get too busy to visit and sometimes it is great to just catch up with folks!

Here is the link to the entire MLS market Action report. The link at the top is active as well.

http://www.rmlsweb.com/v2/public2/loadfile.asp?id=5879

Rick Waible

Marketing and Operations

BLU dot Realty

www.BLUdotRealty.com

www.wheresthebottom.wordpress.com

o: 503-673-0258 / f: 503-673-0259

c: 503-572-2638

e: bluric@frontier.com

April Portland Metro Market Report

Rick — Sun, 15 May 2011 12:53:15 +0000

April as compared to March we saw closed homes drop by 0.3%, pending sales drop by 0.5%, and listings go up by 1.4%. At the current rate of sales the 11,621 listings active on the market would take 7.2 months to absorb. This is slightly over March which resulted in a 7.1 month of supply. Prices from April 2010 to April 2011 fell 5.2% Don’t listen to all of the gloom and doom. If you are buying a home 30% below where we were in 2005 you may be saving 75k on a 250k house and only paying 175k. Prices from March 2011 to April 2011 show a gain of 2.4%, which means we may be making some headway. Market time is up. That is keeping inventory from recovering. The fastest selling areas are NW Washington County at 123 Days on Market (DOM), Hillsboro/Forest Grove at 125 DOM, Gresham/Troutdale at a surprising 127 DOM, and finally SE Portland with 129 DOM. The rest of the areas are even slower. I expect May results to come down on DOM along with inventory to hit the 6 month supply by the end of June. Here is the full report…..

http://www.rmlsweb.com/v2/public2/loadfile.asp?id=5879

The Emperess Palace Falls to 450k

Rick — Tue, 10 May 2011 13:19:59 +0000

What was once a really cool 14,000sf Palatial Estate is now owned by Capital One Bank.

The last recorded deed says $1,337,400 is what Cap 1 paid for the Palace at Auction.