Who Will Win the Big Game?

Quant Fact Predictions Update: Now 63.5%

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 23 Jan 2023 00:35:00 +0000

Overview:

Quant Fact Prediction Update (now 66-38, or 63.5%).
And a look at analysis, probabilities & models.

Many occurrences in nature, science, and business can be described by the bell curve or standard normal distribution. The chart below (from one of my papers) shows quarterly stock market returns graphed — and how the graph looks like a bell curve. However, upon closer inspection, you can see that things are not quite what they seem.

The edge of the curve is wider, or fatter, than the bell curve. That is, investment returns actually exhibit more occurrences at the tails than the bell curve would predict. The bottom half of the chart zooms in on the tail of stock market graph. This behavior is referred to as fat-tails and reflects the fact that we get larger moves to the downside (crashes) and upside than expected by statistical models.

2023 College Football: National Championship

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 09 Jan 2023 00:21:00 +0000

College football’s championship game features the defending champion Georgia Bulldogs against the TCU Horned Frogs (Texas Christian University). What do our championship factors say about this year’s title game?

Who Will Win the 2022 World Series?

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 27 Oct 2022 20:28:00 +0000

Who will win the 2022 World Series between the Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies? More than ten years ago, we performed research on decades’ worth of championship results across the major sports, including the NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL. Our goal is to quantify the impact of factors related to sports psychology. Early results are mentioned in our book, “Who Will Win the Big Game: A Psychological and Mathematical Method.”

Who Will Win the Big Game? LAR vs. Cin in 2022 Super Bowl

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sun, 06 Feb 2022 12:28:00 +0000

The Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams kick-off Super Bowl LVI in about one week. About a decade ago, a colleague and I performed research on decades’ worth of championship results across the major sports, including the NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL.

Our goal is to quantify the impact of factors related to sports psychology. Early results are mentioned in our book, “Who Will Win the Big Game: A Psychological and Mathematical Method.”

The research launched a series of articles that has been published by the Wall Street Journal and New York Times — and has picked the correct winner of major sporting events about 65% of the time.

Super Bowl Square Pool Odds by Quarter, UPDATED!

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Fri, 04 Feb 2022 12:11:00 +0000

Do you have your Super Bowl Square Pool box yet? The Super Bowl kicks off in less than two weeks — and many people are getting in on the popular 10x10 Square Pool. The great thing about these pools is that it is totally random, so if you are watching the game, you have a “fair” rooting interest.

We will be coming out with our Who Will Win article for this year’s Super Bowl soon!

A Tournament of Champs: The GOAT of Men's Olympic Hockey

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sun, 16 Jan 2022 04:11:00 +0000

With the 2022 Winter Olympic Games approaching, we present Part 2 of our series of articles on which Olympic Men’s Hockey team is the greatest of all time (GOAT). In Part 1 (2017) of our work, we used analytics and statistics to study the best Olympic hockey teams in history.

Which is the Greatest Olympic Hockey Team of All-Time Based on Stats and Computer Simulations?

Co-authored by Carlton Chin, founder of CARAT / Adamah Capital. Carlton, a graduate of MIT, is a quant researcher…

www.huffpost.com

In Part 2 of the series, we perform computer simulations to run tournaments of the best Olympic teams in history. Readers may want to read Part 1 of our article to see the main inputs and metrics (such as ELO, tournament performance, and more) that comprise our computer sim. Our goal is to blend statistical facts and information including, but not limited to, categories of offense, defense, goaltending, strength of schedule, talent, preparation, tactics, and more.

Similar to our first article, we include Gold medal teams since 1932. We also included the 1980 Soviet team, which was upset by the 1980 USA “Miracle on Ice” team. Part 2 has been updated to reflect additional thoughts, especially related to how a a hot goaltender can drive teams to Olympic hockey gold.

Carlton Chin holds both graduate and undergraduate degrees from MIT, and is an investment officer and portfolio strategist. When not studying downside risk and portfolio construction, he enjoys applying numbers and probability to sports analytics. He has worked with various sports organizations, including the Sacramento Kings — and has been quoted by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and ESPN.

Jon Hartley and Bob Gibson contributed reporting. Jon Hartley is an economist, policy expert, and member of Forbes’ 30 under 30 (2017). Jon has worked with the Dallas Cowboys in sports analytics and has been featured by CNBC, Forbes, and the Huffington Post. Jon holds degrees from Harvard, Wharton, and the U of Chicago — and is a PhD candidate at Stanford. Bob Gibson is a fan and historian of Olympic Hockey.

The 2022 College Football Championship: Alabama vs. Georgia

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sat, 08 Jan 2022 18:26:00 +0000

Several years ago, we performed research on decades’ worth of championship results across the major sports, including the NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL. Our goal is to quantify the impact of factors related to sports psychology. Early results are mentioned in our book, “Who Will Win the Big Game: A Psychological and Mathematical Method.”

Since that time, our published “quant fact predictions” have been correct 65% of the time — sometimes picking underdogs to win championships. What do the numbers say about this year’s College Football Championship?

Defense

Perhaps a boring mantra, but our research shows that defense does indeed win championships. One exception was the NHL’s high-scoring Wayne Gretzky period, where offenses led the way for a short period. Earlier in the season, Georgia’s defense was being considered “historically great.”

Georgia went on to lose 41–24 to a motivated Alabama team on December 4th. Georgia yielded almost one-third of their season’s total points that day. Even so, Georgia has given up about half as many points as compared to Alabama this season (135 to 269).

It will be interesting to see if the first Alabama-Georgia game was a blip, or if Georgia does indeed have a “historically great defense” and bounces back in a revenge game. There are multiple interesting storylines! Edge: Georgia.

Carlton Chin, a graduate of MIT, is an investment officer and portfolio strategist. When not studying downside risk and portfolio construction, he enjoys applying numbers and probability to sports analytics. He has worked with various sports organizations, including the Sacramento Kings — and has been quoted by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and ESPN.

Dr. Jay Granat is a psychotherapist and founder of StayInTheZone.com. He has worked with athletes of all levels, including high school athletes and Olympians. He was named one of Golf Digest’s Top Ten Mental Gurus and has been on Good Morning America, the New York Times, and ESPN.

Quant Fact Predictions (Now 65%)

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sat, 18 Dec 2021 21:05:00 +0000

With the year winding down, it's a good time to take stock and see how we have been doing.

It's been a while since we updated the record of our Quant Fact predictions.
We are currently at 62-33 (65.3%).

Note that we will have a prediction for the College Football Championship -- as well as the Super Bowl.

Happy Holidays!

- Carlton & Jay

Carlton Chin, a graduate of MIT, is an investment officer focused on portfolio strategy and data-driven models. Carlton has been a professor at a local university and worked with various sports organizations, including the Sacramento Kings. He has been quoted by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and ESPN.

Dr. Jay Granat, psychotherapist, named one of America’s Top 10 Mental Gurus by Golf Digest, has worked with Olympic athletes & sports organizations. He is the owner of StayInTheZone.com and has authored several books on sport psychology — appearing on ESPN, CBS & Good Morning America.

Who Will Win the 2021 World Series?

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 26 Oct 2021 22:34:00 +0000

This article is about the World Series and includes information on Skill vs. Luck.

Sports Psychology Quant Facts

The 2021 World Series is almost ready to start. What do the sports psychology quant facts say? Across all sports studied, it is interesting that less-glitzy statistics and factors are what wins championships. This may be true because of the higher level of competition. For instance, in football, the Super Bowl winner is more likely to be the quarterback who has thrown fewer interceptions during the regular season than the flashier quarterback with a higher QB rating and 40 TDs.

Similarly, in baseball, while home runs win regular season games, batting average is a better indicator of consistency and the ability to put together a rally against better pitching. That is, batting average is a better predictor of the World Series champion than home runs.

Please note that we post more regularly on Medium, please follow us there:

"Who Will Win" Article for 2021 March Madness

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sat, 03 Apr 2021 15:49:00 +0000

This year’s March Madness action has busted more than a few brackets. Now that the NCAA Tournament is down to the Final Four, can our quant fact numbers make sense of the remainder of the men’s college basketball season?

Since that time, our published results have predicted the winner of major sporting events about 65% of the time, sometimes picking underdogs. Our predictions have been particularly successful for the Final Four.

Super Bowl Articles

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sun, 07 Feb 2021 21:43:00 +0000

Probabilities of Square Pool Numbers:

https://carltonjchin.medium.com/2021-super-bowl-square-pool-odds-by-quarter-fd87c5cbccf0

"Who Will Win" article

https://carltonjchin.medium.com/who-will-win-the-big-game-super-bowl-lv-2021-d18beae17043

Enjoy the Big Game!

Who Will Win the 2020 World Series? Dodgers-Rays

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 19 Oct 2020 13:48:00 +0000

Even after a Covid-19 shortened season and an extra round of playoffs, Major League Baseball’s top two teams will meet in the 2020 MLB World Series. The Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays, the teams with the best records in their respective leagues, start the World Series on Tuesday, October 20, 2020. What do our “championship factors” have to say about the World Series?

Carlton Chin, a graduate of MIT, is an investment manager and portfolio strategist. When not studying downside risk and portfolio construction, he enjoys applying numbers and probability to sports analytics. He worked with various sports organizations, including the Sacramento Kings — and has been quoted by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and ESPN. Carlton’s class at Rowan University contributed reporting.

The 2020 NBA Finals: LA Lakers or Miami Heat?

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 29 Sep 2020 13:22:00 +0000

The Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat tip-off this week for the 2020 NBA Finals. What do our “championship factors” have to say about the Finals?

Carlton Chin, CFA, is Chief Investment Officer (CIO) and Head of Research at CARAT Capital and an RIA (CPA) and has served as head of investments and research (as well as portfolio manager) for Goldman Sachs, Commodities Corp., Mt. Lucas, and Price Asset/Adamah. Carlton is a specialist in portfolio construction, alternative assets, quant research, and downside risk management. He has been quoted by the Wall St. Journal, NY Times, and Financial Trader -- and holds both SM and SB degrees from MIT.

Who Will Win the 2020 Stanley Cup Final?

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sat, 19 Sep 2020 13:50:00 +0000

Our regular series of “Who Will Win” quant facts predictions has been correct almost 65% of the time — regularly picking underdogs! The results are based on championships going back several decades — and across major sports including the NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL, and professional tennis and golf.
What do our championship factors say about this year’s NHL Stanley Cup Finals between the Tampa Bay Lighting and Dallas Stars?

Carlton Chin, a graduate of MIT, is an investment officer and quant researcher focused on portfolio strategy and sports analytics. A professor at Rowan University, Carlton has worked with various sports organizations, including the Sacramento Kings — and has been quoted by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and ESPN. Carlton’s class at Rowan contributed reporting.

Dr. Jay Granat, psychotherapist, named one of America’s Top 10 Mental Gurus by Golf Digest, has worked with Olympic athletes & sports organizations. He has authored several books on sport psychology — and has appeared on ESPN, CBS & Good Morning America.

Will anyone bat .400 during the 2020 MLB Season?

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 20 Jul 2020 20:21:00 +0000

With so much craziness going on in the world, the MLB season may offer a welcome respite to sports fans...

Please read more here:
https://medium.com/@carltonjchin/will-the-2020-mlb-season-see-400-ac0323dd2b59

Carlton Chin holds both undergraduate and graduate degrees from MIT; he is a fund manager and quant researcher focused on portfolio strategy, business intelligence, and sports analytics. A professor at Rowan University and proponent of education, Carlton serves as Regional Chair of MIT’s Educational Council, serves on several non-profit educational boards, and was elected to his town’s Board of Education.

Super Bowl Articles - 2020

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Fri, 31 Jan 2020 16:32:00 +0000

Here are links to our 2020 Super Bowl Articles.

Do you have your Super Bowl Square Pool box yet? The Super Bowl kicks off on an interesting date for number nerds this coming Sunday: on 02/02/2020!

Read more here:
https://sportsquants.kinja.com/super-bowl-square-pool-probabilities-by-quarter-updat-1841264836

Over the years, Dr. Jay Granat, psychotherapist, and I have studied championship factors related to sports psychology to predict the winners of major championships. Much of our research has focused on quantifying concepts such as consistency and minimizing errors.

Read more here:
https://sportsquants.kinja.com/who-will-win-the-big-game-2020-super-bowl-1841415370

We'll update our Quant Facts prediction record before March Madness begins!

Who Will Win the 2019 World Series?

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Tue, 22 Oct 2019 21:17:00 +0000

The Washington Nationals and Houston Astros meet in the 2019 MLB World Series, with some of the best pitching match-ups we have seen in recent baseball history. What do our “championship factors” have to say about the World Series?

While many sports fans are looking forward to pitching match-ups, it is interesting to note that both teams are good at keeping rallies going.

Read more here:
https://sportsquants.kinja.com/2019-world-series-who-will-win-the-big-game-1839270519

Other popular articles:

Carlton Chin, a graduate of MIT, is an investment manager and portfolio strategist. When not studying downside risk and portfolio construction, he enjoys applying numbers and probability to sports analytics. He worked with various sports organizations, including the Sacramento Kings — and has been quoted by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and ESPN.

Dr. Jay Granat is a psychotherapist and founder of StayInTheZone.com. He has worked with athletes of all levels, including high school athletes and Olympians. He was named one of Golf Digest’s Top Ten Mental Gurus and has been on Good Morning America, the New York Times, and ESPN.

Quant Fact Update (56-29=65.9%) and More

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Thu, 06 Jun 2019 19:45:00 +0000

Please keep an eye on our column at Kinja for updated articles. We recently updated our Quant Fact record, and also published an NBA article:

Our record on published sports predictions now stands at 65.9%, pending results on the NBA and NHL finals.
We also wrote about Quant Analysis and the financial markets / investments.
Read more here:

https://sportsquants.kinja.com/quantitative-analysis-quant-facts-and-more-1835300590

If you haven't yet seen it, here's our NBA article:

https://sportsquants.kinja.com/who-wins-the-2019-nba-finals-golden-state-or-toronto-1835133123

Predicting the 2019 Stanley Cup Finals

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 27 May 2019 21:45:00 +0000

What do our championship factors say about this year’s NHL Stanley Cup Finals between the St. Louis Blues and Boston Bruins?

Big Game Experience

Big game experience and the related factor of confidence play a large role in winning....

Please read our article on this year's NHL Finals here:
https://sportsquants.kinja.com/who-will-win-the-2019-stanley-cup-finals-1835050417

We'll have an article on the NBA Finals in a few days.

Who Will Win the NCAA Men's Hoops Title?

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 08 Apr 2019 13:36:00 +0000

We quantify concepts of sports psychology such as consistency, leadership, confidence, experience, and hard work. These are areas where coaches and sports organizations can make an actionable impact — as they build team chemistry and champions.

What do the quant facts say as Virginia and Texas Tech get set to tip-off in the March Madness title game? For background, here’s our Final Four article and predictions:

Big Game Experience

Neither team has played in the Final Four over the past few years, so there us is big game experience edge. Edge: None.

Read more here:

https://sportsquants.kinja.com/2019-march-madness-who-will-win-the-national-title-1833880971

Final Four 2019: Who Gets to the Title Game?

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Fri, 05 Apr 2019 14:22:00 +0000

Over the past decade, we have published quant fact predictions based on our research “Who Will Win the Big Game: A Psychological & Mathematical Approach.” Our published results have been correct about 65% of the time, often picking underdogs.

Our work has been particularly successful for college basketball and the Final Four (and we have been published in the New York Times and Wall St. Journal).

Quant Facts Update (54-28 = 65.9%)

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Wed, 03 Apr 2019 12:09:00 +0000

It's been a while since we updated the official record for our Quant Fact predictions. With successful picks in the 2019 Super Bowl, as well as the second half of 2018, our record has improved to 54-28 -- for a winning percentage of 65.9%.

We study sports analytics and sports psychology and focus on factors such as the fundamentals, execution, and leadership. These are concepts that athletes and sports organizations can "key in" on as they put together a team. Our quant fact predictions sometimes differ from the general consensus -- and our record is a testament to the unique and strong combination of quant analytics and sports psychology.

We will be publishing our Quant Fact predictions for the Final Four as March Madness comes to an end this weekend. We have historically done well with college basketball. Please check our blog (as well as our Sports Quant kinja page: https://sportsquants.kinja.com/

Carlton Chin, a graduate of MIT, is a fund manager and quant researcher focused on portfolio strategy and sports analytics. An adjunct Professor at Rowan University, Carlton has worked with various sports organizations, including the Sacramento Kings— and has been quoted by the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and ESPN.

Dr. Jay Granat, psychotherapist, named one of America’s Top 10 Mental Gurus by Golf Digest, has worked with Olympic athletes & sports organizations. A former university professor, he has authored several books on sport psychology — and has appeared on ESPN, CBS & Good Morning America.

Who Will Win the Big Game: 2019 Super Bowl

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Sun, 03 Feb 2019 22:35:00 +0000

Just a quick summary: the sport psychology factors we study point to the New England Patriots in this year's Super Bowl. Many factors including big game experience, fewer mistakes by the team leader (QB), consistency, and defense -- all point to the Patriots. This will count for our official quant fact predictions.

This year's Super Bowl does feature several story lines, most notably age versus youth. Goff is entering his prime, while Brady is Brady (wanting to play until age 45!). We'll update our record at some point, too.

Over the years, our Quant Fact predictions have been correct about 65% of the time, using sports psychology and numbers to get a different "viewpoint" on games -- and sometimes picking underdogs.

2018 MLB World Series: East Meets West

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 22 Oct 2018 22:42:00 +0000

Several years ago, we performed research on decades’ worth of championship results across the major sports, including the NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL. Our goal is to quantify the impact of factors related to sports psychology. Early results are mentioned in our book, “Who Will Win the Big Game: A Psychological and Mathematical Method.”

Since our book came out, our published “quant fact predictions” have been correct about 65% of the time — sometimes picking underdogs to win championships. What do the numbers say about the 2018 World Series?

Read more here:

https://sportsquants.kinja.com/who-will-win-the-2018-world-series-east-meets-west-1829925471

We'll update our record after the World Series.

2018 March Madness: Title Game

noreply@blogger.com (Unknown) — Mon, 02 Apr 2018 15:20:00 +0000

We ran our sports psychology analytics and published our official quant fact prediction. Historically, we have done very well with college basketball.

Our published results have been correct about 65% of the time, often picking underdogs.
This evening’s title game sees Villanova tip-off against Michigan. What do our sports psychology “quant facts” have to say about the big game?

Please read here for more info:
https://sportsquants.kinja.com/2018-final-four-who-will-win-the-ncaa-mens-hoops-title-1824253318