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The Weekly Crib Sheet: Prepare the Trial Balloons – Waiting on Dodd’s Draft

Christian Hudson — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 18:52:03 +0000

The Weekly Crib Sheet for March 8^th-12^th: The stories you’ll see on the front pages and network newscasts this week will be lots of domestic politics and a little foreign policy. Specifically, the state of Democrats in New York will continue to be scrutinized by the media until all things New York Gov. David Patterson and House Ways and Means Chmn. Charlie Rangel shake out. Then, as both health care reform limps along and financial reform keeps Capitol Hill staffers equally busy behind the scenes 24/7, the plot line in coverage will naturally return to personality politics. Don’t believe us? Well, if you are covering a story, but don’t have the draft language what do you do? You analyze the message and the messenger. Don’t take our word for it, here’s the Atlantic’s profile of Treasury Secretary Geithner, the New York’s version of the same, the New York Times’ take on White House messenger David Axelrod, and the New York Times Magazine preview of James Baker’s look at White House CoS Rahm Emanuel. We think you’ll see lots more to come like this, and in the interim look for TV news to do their versions of these print pieces. On the foreign policy front, Iraq will get coverage post election and given that Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton addresses the U.N. on women’s issues at the end of the week (noted on the calendar below) we think that will help open the door to further Iraq, Iran, and Pakistan coverage. That’s a pretty stiff line up for economic recovery stories to break through, but we do think there will be a few that leap from the business pages to the front pages… Here’s our take…

MBA readers here’s WHY YOU CARE:

1) Financial Regulatory Reform – What We Know: Senate Banking Cmte. Chmn. Christopher Dodd continues to work behind the scenes. It seems like from what we hear that a draft is not likely to come early in the week, maybe at the end… perhaps. We caution because every time there seems to be progress another step is taken backward instead of forward (example: the fire drill last week over the Volcker Rule language). Secretary Geithner is on Capitol Hill this week testifying (noted below) as is the Asst. Treasury Secy. for Financial Institutions Michael Barr (also noted below), between those appearances and Secretary Geithner’s speech at the end of the week there’s ample opportunity to publicly dissect any trial balloons that might pop up prior to release of Chmn. Dodd’s next draft (not to mention a number of House Financial Service Cmte. hearings that will allow Chmn. Frank to both do the same and push his own agenda, all of which we’ve outlined below).

2) Health care: Pres. Obama has a self imposed deadline for movement on health care by March 18^th, that makes us think March still feels like a big month. The White House is doing a better media management job in terms of keeping this drumbeat alive. We think we’ll see more leaks on negotiations and substance – so expect to see that at some point on the front pages this week.

3) Fed Watch: Look for more pieces examining how the Obama administration will make over the Fed with the number of open seats. This plays perfectly into the current state of play as the Fed continues to tussle for regulatory ground.

MBA wannabes here’s WHY YOU CARE: The key is what will be in the Dodd bill and what won’t. An example of the type of piece that is easy to miss if you aren’t absorbed in the business pages is this one by the Washington Post’s Tomoeh Murakami Tse over the weekend looking at investment advisers.

Here’s the week:

MONDAY 3/8

Pres. Obama: Health care remarks, then hosts El Salvadorian Pres. Mauricio Funes, later meets with Sen. Charles Schumer (D-NY) and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC).

Bair/Elmendorf: Nat’l Assoc. for Business Economics’ policy conference “The New Normal? Policy Choices After the Great Recession.” Speakers: FDIC Chwmn. Sheila Bair and Congressional Budget Office Dir. Douglas Elmendorf.

Treasury Watch: Treasury Asst. Secy. for Financial Institutions Michael Barr speaks at the Nat’l Council of State Housing Agencies’ legislative conference.

TUESDAY 3/9

Pres. Obama: Hosts Greek PM George Papandreou.

Romer: Nat’l Assoc. for Business Economics’ policy conference “The New Normal? Policy Choices After the Great Recession.” Speakers include: President’s Council of Economic Advisers Chwmn. Christina Romer and Chicago Fed Pres. Charles Evans.

House Hearing: House Financial Services Cmte. on community development financial institutions. Witnesses include: Treasury Asst. Secy. for Financial Institutions Michael Barr and Community Development Financial Institutions Fund Dir. Donna Gambrell.

WEDNESDAY 3/10

Economic Report: Mortgage Bankers Assoc’s weekly mortgage application data.

Pres. Obama Meets with Haitian Pres. Rene Preval, later delivers health care remarks.

House Hearing: House Appropriations Cmte’s Financial Services Subcmte. on 2011 financial services appropriations. Witness: Treasury Secy. Geithner.

House Hearing: House Financial Services Cmte’s on Financial Institutions and Consumer Credit Subcmte. on money service business regulation.

Econ Outlook: George Washington Univ’s Elliot School hosts former Congressional Budget Office Dir. Douglas Holtz-Eakin for an economic address.

THURSDAY 3/11

Economic Reports: Initial Unemployment Claims (for 3/6).

Pres. Obama: Speech at the Export-Import Bank annual DC conference.

House Hearing: House Appropriations Cmte’s Financial Services Subcmte. on 2011 financial services appropriations. Witness: SEC Chwmn. Mary Schapiro.

House Hearing: House Financial Services’ Housing and Community Opportunity Subcmte. on draft legislation (FHA Reform Act of 2010).

House Hearing: House Financial Services’ Capital Markets, Insurance and Govt. Sponsored Enterprises Subcmte. on “Corporate Governance after Citizens United.”

Senate Hearing: Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Cmte. on Comcast-NBC deal.

COP (TARP Panel) Watch: New America Foundation discusses Consumer Financial Protection Agency with Congressional Oversight Panel (aka TARP Oversight Panel) Chwmn. Elizabeth Warren and Mother Jones DC Bur. Chief David Corn.

FRIDAY 3/12

Economic Report: Retail Sales (for Feb).

Secy. Geithner: Treasury Secy. Geithner and Export-Import Bank of United States Chmn. and Pres. Fred Hochberg before the Export-Import Bank of United States annual conference.

U.N. Address: Secretary of State Clinton to address the U.N. on women’s issues.

LOOK AHEAD:

March 16^th: Federal Open Market Cmte. meeting.

March 18^th: Pres. Obama’s self imposed deadline for movement on health care reform.

March 23^rd: House Financial Services Cmte. on the future of housing finance. Witnesses invited include: Treasury Secy. Timothy Geithner and HUD Secy. Shaun Donovan. [Editor’s Note: Originally scheduled for 3/2/10].

Volcker Rule Summary Text & Legislative Language

Christian Hudson — Wed, 03 Mar 2010 23:07:28 +0000

For our MBA readers and lawyers here’s the legislative text sent to the Hill regarding the Volcker Rule. The question we ask ourselves – between this release and the current CFPA debate going on – does this make finance reform more or less likely to pass this year?

Meanwhile, here’s the summary of the “Volcker Rule Released 3 3 10” that has been passed around to journalists in DC. We suggest the Wall Street Journal’s Damian Paletta’s cogent write.

WHY YOU CARE: This expands into the area of non-banks – AND – it now touches on the ability for financial firms to grow. Both of those are beyond the initial headlines.

The Weekly Crib Sheet: Waiting on Dodd and the Jobs Bill Race toward Thursday’s February Unemployment Numbers [Calendar Updated: 3/5]

Christian Hudson — Tue, 02 Mar 2010 22:18:28 +0000

The Weekly Crib Sheet for March 1^st-5^th: Yes, we’re late this week. Mea culpa, we went to post yesterday but flinched given the nature of talks going on in the Senate Banking Cmte. on financial regulatory reform. So here we are, a day late, and marginally a day wiser. The stories you’ll see on the front pages and network newscasts this week will be – a) quake aftermath (additionally noting that Secy. of State Hillary Clinton travels throughout Central and South America this week), b) Democrats scramble: You likely hear more about the fate of New York Gov. David Patterson (D-NY) and House Ways and Means Chmn. Charlie Rangel (D-NY), plus the Texas primary will get coverage dissecting the Republican vote, and c) the Academy Awards (yes, this always crowds out news especially toward Friday with the awards show on Sunday). However, as always, there will be a number of business stories that we think will jump beyond the business section and on to the front page…

MBA readers here’s WHY YOU CARE:

1) Financial Regulatory Reform: What we know: Senate Banking Cmte. Chmn. Christopher Dodd does not disappoint when it comes to surprises. The Fed has gone from losing oversight mojo to gaining strength in a scaled back Consumer Financial Protection Agency. We’d like to note that there are two arguments going on regarding the CFPA: 1) scope and 2) real estate. What’s interesting to us is that while the scope question is substantive in regards to how business gets done, the real estate question is essentially about independence. Somehow the deck chair shuffling took on a larger role than the substantive questions. We concede that the press can only report what it knows – and the deck chair shuffling is easier to do reading tea leaves than actual legislative language when the Senate Banking Cmte. is on lock down. Unlike last week that offered a number of easy hearing platforms to explore a new draft bill from Chmn. Dodd, this week is anemic in comparison save for a Senate Banking Cmte. hearing, a House Financial Services Cmte. hearing and a TARP oversight hearing (both noted below). Regarding timing: Once a deal is struck Tuesday, then there will need to be a bit of margin for the staff (that has lived in their offices throughout Chmn. Dodd’s renewed push) to fold the deal into the draft. And, as always, even though Chmn. Dodd and Banking Cmte. member Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN) will be the focus reporting, we suggest you keep your eyes on ranking member Sen. Richard Shelby’s (R-AL) reaction to any reported deal, that should tell you how real it is.

2) Toyota: There is one hearing this week (noted below) which will absolutely get play.

3) Jobs: The jobs bill could be moved on this week. The news that Capitol Hill doesn’t want is for the jobs bill to be stalled while the February unemployment numbers roll in come Friday. This former journalist has looked at enough polls to know that when Congress stalls Americans just blame the party in power.

4) Health care: We think that in the wake of the televised health care summit last week you’ll see both parties trying to gain an upper hand by floating proposed trial balloon compromises. The substance of the trial balloons this week will be a good clue to how the Democrats think they can move forward.

MBA wannabes here’s WHY YOU CARE: There will be a lot of noise around the new Dodd draft this week. We suggest that you keep your eyes peeled for stories detailing how large failing companies would be put to rest, and how it is paid for. That will tell you not only how close the new draft is to being unveiled, but once dropped, how fast it will move to the Senate floor.

Here’s the week:

MONDAY 3/1

Earnings: HSBC Finance Corp., MBIA Inc.

Economic Reports: Construction Spending (for Jan.), Personal Income/Spending (for Jan.).

Pres. Obama: Remarks before the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Meets with Transportation Secy. Ray LaHood then Defense Secy. Robert Gates.

Dem Leadership: House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) speech at Brookings Institution.

Ghost of Enron: Supreme Court hears Skilling v. United States.

Fed Watch: Fed Vice Chmn. Donald Kohn announces retirement (steps down in June).

TUESDAY 3/2

Economic Reports: Car/Truck Sales (for Feb.).

Pres. Obama: Jobs event in Savannah, GA.

Senate Hearing: Senate Banking Cmte. on borrowing for small businesses.

Senate Hearing: Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Cmte. on Toyota recalls. Witnesses include: Transportation Secy. Ray LaHood and Toyota’s North America President and CEO Yoshimi Inaba.

TARP/Exec. Pay: TARP Special Master for Exec. Compensation Ken Feinberg speaks at Princeton.

Texas: Holds primary, eyes on govenor’s mansion.

Anniversary: First anniversary of AIG reporting the largest quarterly loss in U.S. corporate history (from the Council on Foreign Relations’ World Events Calendar).

WEDNESDAY 3/3

Pres. Obama: Set to announce that if health care is not given an up or down vote, Democrats will use the reconciliation process to get a bill to his desk. [Editor's Note: Updated 3/3].

Volcker Rule: Legislative text released. [Editor's Note: Updated 3/3].

Economic Report: Federal Reserve’s Beige Book (for March), Mortgage Bankers Assoc’s weekly mortgage information.

Senate Hearing: Senate Finance Cmte. on 2010 trade agenda. Witness: U.S. Trade Rep. Ron Kirk.

House Hearing: House Agriculture Cmte’s General Farm Commodities Subcmte. on commodity exchanges.

House Hearing: House Financial Services Cmte. on 2011 estimates (report to House Budget Cmte.).

House Hearing: House Budget Cmte. on 2011 budget resolution (part 1).

Geithner: To meet with consumer groups on finance reform overhaul. [Editor's Note: Updated 3/3].

Treasury: Counselor to the Treasury Secy. Gene Sperling speaks at the CDFI Coalition’s “2010 CDFI Institute.”

Memorial Service: Capitol Hill service for the late Rep. John Murtha (D-PA).

THURSDAY 3/4

Earnings: Anheuser-Busch InBev

Economic Reports: Factory Orders (for Jan.), Initial Unemployment Claims (for 2/27), and Pending Home Sales (for Jan.).

Geithner: Meets with Pres. Obama and Vice Pres. Biden. Additionally meets with Congressional Oversight (TARP) Panel members (see next entry). [Editor's Note: Updated 3/3].

TARP Hearing: Congressional Oversight Panel hearing on TARP assistance given to Citigroup. Witnesses include: Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit and Asst. Treasury Secy. for Financial Stability Herbert Allison.

House Hearing: House Budget Cmte. on 2011 budget resolution (part 2).

Senate Hearing: Senate Armed Services Cmte. on transfer of GITMO detainees.

House Hearing: House Armed Services Cmte. on repeal of “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell.”

FRIDAY 3/5

Economic Reports: Unemployment Rate (for Feb.).

Treasury: Treasury Chief Economist Alan Krueger to brief on Feb. unemployment numbers. [Editor's Note: Updated 3/5].

Romney: Fmr. Gov. and fmr. presidential Candidate Mitt Romney (R) speech at the Natl. Press Club.

Joint Hearing: Joint Economic Cmte. on February unemployment numbers.

House Hearing: House Oversight and Govt. Reform Cmte. on the Recovery Act and California. Witnesses include: LA Mayor Antonia Villaraigosa.

Iraq Inquiry: British PM Gordon Brown appears before the UK Iraq War Inquirty.

SATURDAY 3/7

Iraq: Parliamentary Elections (from the Council on Foreign Relations’ World Events Calendar).

SUNDAY 3/8

Academy Awards: This night.

LOOK AHEAD:

March 12^th: Pres. Obama hosts El Salvadorian Pres. Mauricio Funes.

March 12^th: Secy. of State Clinton to address the UN on women’s issues.

March 16^th: Federal Open Market Cmte. meeting.

The Weekly Crib Sheet: Get Ready for Bernanke Hearings & Dodd’s Reg. Bill Draft

Christian Hudson — Mon, 22 Feb 2010 18:42:19 +0000

The Weekly Crib Sheet for February 22^nd-26^th: The stories you’ll see on the front pages and network newscasts will be – a) of course the Olympics, b) Afghanistan and Iran – for among other reasons Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton’s four (yes four) appearances on Capitol Hill this week, and c) health care – both because Pres. Obama released his own plan today (2/22) and Thursday’s (2/25) televised bipartisan summit. However, as always, there will be a number of business stories that we think will jump beyond the business section and on to the front page…

MBA readers here’s WHY YOU CARE:

1) Financial Regulatory Reform: What we know: Senate Banking Cmte. Chmn. Christopher Dodd and Republican committee member Sen. Bob Corker land back in Washington, DC this evening from a Congressional trip. The question is how far along are they really? Capitol Hill is a hive of busy staffers, which means that perhaps Chmn. Dodd will indeed deliver his new draft this week. The bigger question is what will ranking Republican committee member Sen. Richard Shelby do? Multiple reports have him ready with his own version should he not have a meeting of the minds with Chmn. Dodd, that of course would put Sen. Corker’s support for the new draft bill into question. So the question is when does it come out – if this week then there are plenty of hearings where a new draft would provide ample fodder for various parties to make their case (all noted below): Treasury Secy. Timothy Geithner testifies this week, so does Fed Chmn. Ben Bernanke (twice, including in front of Chmn. Dodd on Thursday), and House Financial Services Cmte. Chmn. Barney Frank has multiple hearings. Even if a draft gets delayed – all of these hearings will help push the economy and financial regulatory reform to the front page.

2) Toyota: There are two hearings this week on Capitol Hill, one of which is with Toyota Pres. Akio Toyoda. The scope and size of the recall, plus his statements before Congress will undoubtedly generate important coverage. Also, look for this coverage (like the health care summit) to squeeze some of the coverage from regulatory reform.

3) Jobs: Should the Senate come together on a jobs bill look for detailed reporting on a) what actually got passed versus the bipartisan bill that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid balked at, and b) the actual anticipated impact the bill will have on the unemployment numbers (and when).

4) Health care: As we noted last week, this made for TV debate will get a lot of coverage. The question is whether the White House decides it is a win or not for them. If so, could one on financial regulatory reform be that far off?

MBA wannabes here’s WHY YOU CARE: Here’s how to cut through the clutter: When Chmn. Dodd’s bill comes out look to see what Sen. Shelby says. Specifically, look for pieces that parse his words. That will tell you how long it will take (slow or fast) to get out of committee. Then, of course, look for the pieces detailing what’s actually in the bill – especially when compared to his prior draft.

Here’s the week:

MONDAY 2/22

Earnings: Fannie Mae, Leucadia National, The Blackstone Group.

Pres. Obama: Unveils White House version of health care proposal, then hosts National Governors Assoc. members at the White House.

Senate: Reconvenes to take up the jobs bill.

House: Reconvenes as well.

SEC: SEC Advisory Cmte. meeting.

Secy. Clinton: Secy. of State Hillary Rodham Clinton speech at the Atlantic Council of the United States.

TUESDAY 2/23

Economic Reports: Case-Shiller 20-city price report (for Dec.), Consumer Confidence (for Feb.).

House Hearing: House Financial Services Cmte. hearing on the prospects for employment growth.

House Hearing: House Energy and Commerce Cmte’s Oversight and Investigations Subcmte. on Toyota recalls.

Senate Hearing: Senate Finance Cmte. on job creation.

Joint Economic Cmte.: Hearing on job creation. Witnesses include: Congressional Budget Office Director Douglas Elmendorf.

Treasury: Asst. Treasury Secy. for Financial Institutions Michael Barr at the Credit Union Association conference.

FDIC: Presser on bank/thrift earnings with FDIC Chwmn. Sheila Bair.

WEDNESDAY 2/24

Earnings: The Washington Post Company, Thomson Reuters Corporation.

Economic Report: Mortgage Bankers Assoc. weekly mortgage application info, New Home Sales (for Jan.).

Pres. Obama: Business Roundtable address.

Dodd/Frank: House Financial Services Cmte. Chmn. Frank and Senate Banking Cmte. Chmn. Dodd both slated to speak at the Credit Union Association conference.

Senate Hearing: Senate Homeland Security and Govt. Affairs Cmte. on 2011 budget. Witness: Homeland Security Secy. Janet Napolitano.

Senate Hearing: Senate Foreign Relations Cmte. on 2011 budget. Witness: Secy. of State Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Senate Hearing: Senate Appropriations Cmte’s State and Foreign Operations Subcmte. on 2011 budget. Witness: Secy. of State Hillary Rodham Clinton.

House Hearing: House Oversight and Govt. Reform Cmte. on Toyota recalls. Witnesses include: Toyota Pres. Akio Toyoda, Transportation Secy. Ray LaHood and Toyota’s North America President and CEO Yoshimi Inaba.

House Hearing: House Financial Services Cmte. on semiannual monetary report to Congress. Witness: Federal Reserve Chmn. Ben Bernanke.

House Hearing: House Budget Cmte. on the 2011 budget. Witness: Treasury Secy. Timothy Geithner.

THURSDAY 2/25

Economic Reports: FHFA Housing Price Index (for Dec.), Initial Unemployment Claims (for 2/20).

Pres. Obama: Pres. Obama holds bipartisan televised health care summit.

Senate Hearing: Senate Banking Cmte. on semiannual monetary report to Congress. Witness: Federal Reserve Chmn. Ben Bernanke.

House Hearing: Senate Foreign Affairs Cmte. on 2011 budget. Witness: Secy. of State Hillary Rodham Clinton.

House Hearing: House Appropriations Cmte’s State and Foreign Operations Sucmte. on 2011 budget. Witness: Secy. of State Hillary Rodham Clinton.

House Hearing: House Financial Services Cmte. on “Compensation in the Financial Industry – Government Perspectives” focusing on “the pay practices of both private and public financial entities including AIG, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac where the federal government plays a role in reviewing and/or approving compensation.” Witnesses include: TARP Exec. Compensation Special Master Ken Feinberg.

House Hearing: House Oversight and Govt. Reform Cmte. on foreclosures titled “What Needs to Change in the Administration’s Response.”

TARP Hearing: Congressional Oversight Panel hearing on TARP assistance given to GMAC. Witnesses include: GMAC CEO Michael Carpenter, GMAC CFO Robert Hull, Treasury Dept. Chief Restructuring Officer Jim Millstein, and Treasury Secy. Sr. Adviser Ron Bloom.

CBO: Congressional Budget Office Director Douglas Elmendorf speech at the National Economists Club.

FRIDAY 2/26

Economic Report: Existing Home Sales (for Feb.) and Second Estimate of Fourth Quarter GDP.

Pres. Obama: TBD.

Joint Hearing: House Financial Services Cmte. and House Small Business Cmte. on small business lending specifically “the condition of small business and commercial real estate lending in local markets.” Witnesses include: Asst. Secretary for Financial Stability Herbert Allison, Jr.

Treasury: Speech by Asst. Secretary for Economic Policy and Chief Economist Alan Krueger on “Achieving and Sustaining an Employment-Based Recovery: US and Global Strategies for Governments, Businesses, Workers and Families” at Brookings Institution.

TARP Pay: TARP Exec. Compensation Special Master Ken Feinberg gives keynote address at Vanderbilt Univ. Law School’s conference on exec. compensation.

LOOK AHEAD:

February 28^th: Winter Olympics closing ceremony.

March 1^st: Ghost of Enron: Supreme Court hears Skilling v. United States.

March 2^nd: House Financial Services Cmte. on the future of housing finance. Witnesses invited include: Treasury Secy. Timothy Geithner and HUD Secy. Shaun Donovan.

March 2^nd: Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Cmte. on Toyota recalls.

March 4^th: Congressional Oversight Panel hearing on TARP assistance given to Citigroup. Witnesses include: Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit and Asst. Treasury Secy. for Financial Stability Herbert Allison.

March 16^th: Federal Open Market Cmte. meeting.

Bernanke to Testify 2/24 on Capitol Hill

Christian Hudson — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 19:02:49 +0000

We updated our “Look Ahead” section of the The Weekly Crib Sheet today noting that Fed Chmn. Ben Bernanke will testify on Capitol Hill (as part of his semi-annual report to Congress) on Thursday, February 24.

WHY YOU CARE: There are two important things to note: 1) the House Financial Services Cmte. wants to have a pre-hearing hearing as a primer, on February 23rd, which makes a lot of sense if you are committee chairman Barney Frank and worried that your regulatory reform bill (HR 4173) that was sent to the Senate might get watered down; and 2) given that Chmn. Bernanke should also testify on the Senate side it seems like a good time to parse Senate questions on tweaks to the next Senate Banking Cmte. draft to Chmn. Christopher Dodd’s regulatory reform bill. [Editor's Note: We posted this earlier today as "expected to testify." It is now official].

Obama to Create Deficit Commission But Lacks Congressional Voting Teeth

Christian Hudson — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 02:44:29 +0000

Late word tonight that on Thursday Pres. Obama will create a deficit commission called the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform with former Clinton White House Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles and former Sen. Alan Simpson (R-WY) heading it up.

WHY YOU CARE: If the Senate had voted on creating the commission then Congress would have held a vote on whether to adopt the resulting recommendations. Instead, by Pres. Obama having to create it via executive order, it means the commission’s findings are merely suggestions. Take a read of CNN Senior White House Correspondent Ed Henry’s excellent write. This is another example of why everything financial that touches Washington, DC in 2010 will be seen through a mid-term election lens.

The Weekly Crib Sheet: Tracking Toyota, Geithner, Dodd, Bernanke. [Updated 2/17]

Christian Hudson — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 20:16:57 +0000

The Weekly Crib Sheet for February 15^th-19^th: The stories you’ll see on the front pages and network newscasts this week be – a) of course the Olympics, b) Afghanistan with both the push in Marja and the one year anniversary of Pres. Obama’s troop increase order, c) Iran for the obvious reasons, but also because Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton is traveling in the Middle East and will be asked about Iran repeatedly, d) in the wake of Sen. Evan Bayh’s retirement announcement a look at the 2010 political landscape – both presently and midterm election implications (we’re publishing late today so we confess this is an easy call, but we’ll note that Pres. Obama is doing events in Nevada for the poll challenged Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid at the end of the week as well).

MBA readers here’s WHY YOU CARE: Between the Olympics and foreign affairs that’s a lot of oxygen and real estate (and we didn’t even mention the “country is still digging out of the snow” stories). Still, there will be some stories at the intersection of Capitol Hill and Wall Street that stand do get some play outside of the business section, here’s what to look for…

1) The Fed: When Fed Chmn. Ben Bernanke was officially reappointed his statement noted how the Fed would make adjustments in policy once the threat of inflation outweighed the threat of the economy needing further emergency medication. That deserved and made headlines, well this week we’ll get a window into the Fed’s thinking once again when the minutes of the January meeting are released.

2) Housing: Building Permits and Housing Starts – both reports for January come out this week, and they will be hard to ignore as economists and journalists search for metaphoric measures of the economy’s health.

3) Gearing Up for Next Week – Part 1: Last week Toyota was to face congressional hearings on their recalls, with more planned for next week. Thanks to both a snow storm and Congress’ embrace of recess, last week’s and next week’s hearings will happen at the same time. In fact, we’ve added a section in addition to our “look ahead” list this week to outline the hearings that are not yet rescheduled after getting snowed out last week.

4) Gearing Up for Next Week – Part 2: On our “snowed out” list below are hearings ranging from Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on the budget to Fed Chmn. Bernanke on economic stimulus. What’s not on that list is the release of the Senate Banking Cmte. Chmn. Christopher Dodd’s revised financial regulatory legislation. However, if Sen. Dodd wants to keep to his announced desire for a mark up at the end of February or start of March, then the end of next week seems like a good time to put that out. Or to put it another way, the end of next week is the earliest we are likely to see it. Capitol Hill finance reporters continue to dog this story – so if any trial balloons are launched you’ll be sure to know.

5) Gearing Up for Next Week – Part 3 – Get Ready for 2/25: What interesting about the White House’s play for a televised health care summit is that depending on the type of press they get, we could see them doing the same thing on financial regulatory reform. The lead up coverage to the debate will be as important to them in this regard as the coverage of, and post mortem of the debate itself. We are watching this closely.

MBA wannabes here’s WHY YOU CARE: Here’s how to cut through the clutter: 1) focus on good analysis pieces of the Fed minutes released this week, it will help give you a sense of what’s likely to happen for the rest of the year and 2) take a close look at our point above about the February 25^th health care summit. If Democrats feel like they are scoring points, then the same may be done for financial reform. The downside to either such summit is that nuance is rarely done well during political debates.

Here’s the week:

MONDAY 2/15

Pres. Obama: Returns to DC from Camp David.

TUESDAY 2/16

Pres. Obama: Jobs event at DC area training center.

Fed Watch: Kansas City Fed Pres. Thomas Hoenig remarks at the Peterson-Pew Commission on Budget Reform (in DC).

WEDNESDAY 2/17

Economic Reports: Building Permits (for Jan.), Export/Import Prices (for Jan.), Housing Starts (for Jan.), Mortgage Banker’s Assoc’s weekly mortgage application numbers.

Fed Watch: Federal Open Market Cmte. releases minutes from 1/26-27 meeting.

Pres. Obama: Hosts Spain’s King Juan Carlos at the White House.

Historical Note: This day marks the first anniversary of Pres. Obama’s order to increase troops in Afghanistan (from the Council on Foreign Relations’ World Events Calendar).

THURSDAY 2/18

Economic Reports: Initial Unemployment Claims (for 2/13), Producer Price Index (for Jan.).

Pres. Obama: To announce the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform to tackle the deficit with former Clinton Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles and former Sen. Alan Simpson (R-WY) heading it up (see CNN’s Ed Henry’s write), then meets with the Dalai Lama then travels to Colorado for a fundraiser for Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO).[Updated: 2/16].

Fed Watch: Fed Gov. Elizabeth Duke on “Unusual and Exigent: My First Year at the Fed” at the Economics Club of Hampton Roads.

FRIDAY 2/19

Economic Report: Core Producer Price Index (for Jan.).

Pres. Obama: Economic event in Las Vegas with Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid.

LOOK AHEAD:

February 22^nd: Senate reconvenes to take up the jobs bill; House reconvenes as well.

February 22^nd: SEC Advisory Cmte. meeting.

February 23^rd: House Financial Services Cmte. hearing on the prospects for employment growth – held in advance of Fed Chmn. Ben Bernanke’s semi annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony on Capitol Hill. [Updated: 2/16].

February 24^th: House Financial Services Cmte. hearing on Fed Chmn. Ben Bernanke’s semi annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony on Capitol Hill. Witness: Bernanke, of course. [Updated: 2/17].

February 24^th: Senate Homeland Security and Govt. Affairs Cmte. on 2011 budget. Witness: Homeland Security Secy. Janet Napolitano.

February 24^th: House Oversight and Govt. Reform Cmte. on Toyota recalls. Witnesses include: Transportation Secy. Ray LaHood and Toyota’s North America President and CEO Yoshimi Inaba.

February 25^th: Pres. Obama proposes to hold bipartisan televised health care summit on this date.

February 25^th: House Energy and Commerce Cmte’s Oversight and Investigations Subcmte. on Toyota recalls.

March 1^st: Ghost of Enron: Supreme Court hears Skilling v. United States.

March 2^nd: House Financial Services Cmte. on the future of housing finance. Witnesses invited include: Treasury Secy. Timothy Geithner and HUD Secy. Shaun Donovan.

March 2^nd: Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Cmte. on Toyota recalls.

HEARINGS NOT YET RESCHEDULED AFTER GETTING SNOWED OUT:

Joint Economic Cmte.: Hearing on job creation. Witnesses include: Congressional Budget Office Director Douglas Elmendorf.

House Hearing: House Appropriations Cmte’s Homeland Security Subcmte on 2011 budget. Witness: Homeland Security Secy. Janet Napolitano.

House Hearing: House Financial Services Cmte. on lending programs for small businesses.

House Hearing: House Homeland Security Cmte on the 2011 budget. Witness: Homeland Security Secy. Janet Napolitano.

Senate Hearing: Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Cmte. on Christmas bombing attempt of NW Flight 253.

Joint Economic Cmte.: Hearing on Pres. Obama’s economic report. Witnesses include: Council of Economic Advisers Chwmn. Christina Romer.

House Hearing: House Financial Services Cmte. on economic stimulus. Witness: Federal Reserve Chmn. Ben Bernanke.

House Hearing: House Budget Cmte. on the 2011 budget. Witness: Treasury Secy. Timothy Geithner.

The Weekly Crib Sheet: The Week that Wasn’t

Christian Hudson — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 20:19:08 +0000

WhyYouCare.com expected a big week full of hearings on: a) Toyota recalls, b) the Federal Reserve and the economic stimulus, c) Treasury Secy. Timothy Geithner discussing the budget but really talking about regulatory reform, and of course d) the jobs bill in the Senate.

However, not one but two snow storms have conspired to thwart that, and now The Weekly Crib Sheet sits in our Word file waiting to launch for next week. HOWEVER, we would sugget the following: Snowed in Capitol Hill staffers with laoptops make excellent drafters when it comes to legislation. We’ve said that the Senate Banking Cmte’s next regulatory reform draft should be out perhaps as early as next week. In an odd way, we think the snow helps the drafting.

The Weekly Crib Sheet: How to Watch the Volcker/Bankers Hearings; Plus: Treas. Secy. Geithner’s/OMB Dir. Orszag’s 7 Cap Hill Hearings [Updated: 2/2]

Christian Hudson — Mon, 01 Feb 2010 18:59:37 +0000

The Weekly Crib Sheet for February 1^st – 6^th: The first week of February is all about a) jobs, jobs, and more jobs and b) reading the tea leaves on financial overhaul legislation in the Senate.

MBA readers here’s WHY YOU CARE: In the wake of the Massachusetts special election to fill the late Sen. Edward Kennedy’s seat the administration has put health care on the side burner in the number two slot and the economy in the number one priority position. But, there are a number of ways to say economy: jobs, unemployment, budgets, financial reform. The synonyms abound this week. So here’s what to look for…

1) Jobs: January’s unemployment numbers come out this Friday (2/5 noted below). We all know it is a lagging indicator of the economy, and we all know it won’t improve dramatically for a while, however, that doesn’t work on Sunday talk shows, nightly newscasts, blogs, and most importantly campaign commercials. Now that 2010 is here, the events this week (including a town hall with Pres. Obama) are about trying to frame the picture as it were for Democrats. Look for more events like this in the coming weeks.

2) Budget Time: Pres. Obama unveils his budget Monday (2/1) then his team have at least eight hearings on Capitol Hill this week. Most importantly the budget hearings will work on three levels: a) questions about what is in the budget itself and the deficit, b) how the government plans to pay for additional job/economic programs, and c) anything that a particular House member or Senator has on their political agenda. Look for a mix of theatrics splashed across the political pages, and some solid drill down stories crunching the numbers in the business pages. Like the January unemployment numbers, the budget will get front page coverage this week. Meanwhile, Office of Management and Budget Dir. Peter Orszag has four appearances (detailed below) on Capitol Hill and Treasury Secy. Timothy Geithner has three (also detailed below). And speaking of Secy. Geithner…

3) Budget Part 2: Geithner Time: Unfortunately for Treasury Secy. Geithner his three appearances on Capitol Hill will likely contain about 10% budget questions and 90% political questions on TARP, AIG, stimulus, etc. The key here is whether he actually gets questions on components of the financial overhaul bill currently being retooled in the Senate Banking Committee. That will not make front page news, but will find its way into the business pages. You can be sure that Wall Street will watch for that, and this is where you should be too.

4) How to Watch the Volcker/Bankers Hearings: One reason that Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd’s latest draft of financial reform legislation has been delayed is the administration’s sudden move to announce what is now being called the “Volcker Rule” (explained below). That language now has to be worked into the bill. You may get a sense of it on Tuesday (2/2) during former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker’s appearance before the Senate Banking Committee (detailed below). Better yet, listen to HOW it is going to get worked into the bill – that will offer a insight into both the status and the substance of Chairman Dodd’s legislation. He wants it out of committee by the first part of March. Possible, but the Senate Banking Committee has lots of work to do. Similarly, when representatives from Citi, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs appear before the same committee on Thursday (2/4) look for the same types of questions. Substantively, what is in the legislation and where it stands is the paramount issue.

MBA wannabes here’s WHY YOU CARE: Last week we said that the best way to cut through the clutter of coverage was to keep your eyes peeled for stories pointing out where health care is going. We were right, and now we know it has taken a back seat to finance reform as the administration’s number one issue. Similarly, we told you to keep on the look out for stories on the finance reform bill’s status in the Senate. With the announcement last week of the proposal to limit some banking activities by those institutions with deposits, we now know that the Senate Banking Committee has to work that language into the bill before releasing the next draft. Luckily, those hearings are this week. So, this week we say, click through the business pages looking for pieces that decipher the substance of the Senate Banking Committee’s questions for Mr. Volcker and banking heads (Tuesday and Thursday respectively). You’ll be glad you did.

Here’s the week:

MONDAY 2/1

Earnings: Gannett.

Economic Reports: Construction Spending, Personal Income & Spending (all for Dec.).

Pres. Obama: Submits his budget.

Treasury: Asst. Treasury Secy. for Financial Institutions Michael Barr before the American Securitization Forum.

TUESDAY 2/2

Earnings: MetLife, Inc.; News Corporation; The Dow Chemical Company; The Hershey Company; United Parcel Service, Inc.

Economic Reports: Car & Truck Sales (for Jan.), Pending Home Sales (for Dec.).

Pres. Obama: Town hall meeting in New Hampshire on jobs.

Senate Hearing: Senate Finance Committee holds a hearing on the 2011 budget. Witness: Treasury Secy. Timothy Geithner.

Senate Hearing: Senate Budget Committee holds a hearing on the 2011 budget. Witness: Office of Management and Budget Dir. Peter Orszag.

Senate Hearing: Senate Banking Committee holds a hearing on “Prohibiting Certain High-Risk Investment Activities by Banks and Bank Holding Companies” (aka the “Volcker Rule.”) Witnesses include: Paul Volcker, chairman of Pres. Obama’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board and former Federal Reserve Chairman and Treasury Deputy Secretary Neal Wolin. [Updated: 2/2 to add Wolin].

Senate Hearing: Senate Armed Services Cmte. on the 2011 Dept. of Defense budget and the 2011 Missile Defense Review plus the 2011 Quadrennial Defense Review. Witnesses: Defense Secy. Robert Gates and Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Mike Mullen.

House Hearing: House Budget Cmte. holds a hearing on the 2011 budget. Witness: Office of Management and Budget Dir. Peter Orszag.

WEDNESDAY 2/3

Earnings: Carlisle Companies; Cisco Systems; Comcast Corporation; Honda Motor Co. Ltd.; Lazard Ltd.; Pfizer; Time Warner Inc.; Visa, Inc.

Economic Report: Mortgage Bankers Assoc’s weekly mortgage application info.

Pres. Obama: Meets with governors on energy policy (at the White House).

Senate Hearing: Senate Finance Committee holds a hearing on health care proposals. Witness: HHS Secy. Kathleen Sebelius.

House Hearing: House Ways and Means Committee holds a hearing on the 2011 budget. Witness: Treasury Secy. Timothy Geithner.

House Hearing: House Ways and Means Committee holds a hearing on the 2011 budget. Witness: Office of Management and Budget Dir. Peter Orszag.

Treasury: Acting Asst. Treasury Secy. for Financial Markets Karthik Ramanathan and Dep. Asst. Treasury Secy. for Federal Finance Matthew Rutherford re: Nov. 2009 Quarterly Refunding Statement and Webcast.

THURSDAY 2/4

Earnings: Kellogg Co.; MasterCard Incorporated; Moody’s Corporation; Northrop Grumman; Sony Corporation.

Economic Report: Initial Unemployment Claims (for 1/30), Factory Orders (for Dec.).

Pres. Obama: Attends Natl. Prayer Breakfast.

Senate Hearing: Senate Budget Committee holds a hearing on the 2011 budget. Witness: Treasury Secy. Timothy Geithner.

Commerce Dept.: Commerce Secy. Gary Locke speech on jobs at the Natl. Press Club.

Senate Hearing: Senate Banking Committee to follow up the February 2nd hearing on risk and banks with second hearing on the “Volcker Rule.” Witnesses include: Goldman Sachs’ Managing Dir. Gerald Corrigan, Fmr. Citigroup CEO, and JPMorgan Chase’s executive VP and chief risk officer Barry Zubrow.

Senate Hearing: Senate Commerce Committee is expected to have a hearing on the Federal Trade Commission’s role in protecting consumers with regards to financial services.

Senate Hearing: Senate Finance Committee holds a hearing on the 2011 budget. Witness: Office of Management and Budget Dir. Peter Orszag.

Senate Hearing: Senate Judiciary Cmte’s Subcmte. on Antitrust on proposed Comcast/NBC Universal transaction. Witnesses include: Comcast CEO Brian Robert and NBC Universal CEO Jeff Zucker.

House Hearing: House Energy & Commerce Cmte’s Subcmte. on Communications on proposed Comcast/NBC Universal transaction. Witnesses include: Comcast CEO Brian Robert and NBC Universal CEO Jeff Zucker.

FRIDAY 2/5

Economic Reports: Consumer Credit (for Dec.), Hourly Earnings (for Jan.), and Unemployment Rate (for Jan.).

Pres. Obama: TBD.

Treasury: Treasury Chief Economist and Asst. Secy. for Economic Policy Alan Krueger – pen and pad briefing on unemployment numbers and economic recovery.

Hearing: Joint Economic Cmte. hearing on January unemployment numbers.

House Hearing: House Financial Services Cmte. and House Small Business Cmte. on small business lending programs. [Editor's Note: This is now postponed to a date later to be determined].[Updated: 2/2].

SATURDAY 2/6

Treasury: Treasury Secy.. Geithner participates in a joint press conference with the G-7 Finance Ministers in Iqaluit, Canada.

LOOK AHEAD:

February 17^th: Federal Open Market Cmte. releases minutes from 1/26-27 meeting.

February 10^th: House Budget Cmte. on the 2011 budget. Witness: Treasury Secy. Timothy Geithner.

The Weekly Crib Sheet: What Wall St. Should Look for In State of the Union Coverage [Updated 1/27].

Christian Hudson — Mon, 25 Jan 2010 19:19:52 +0000

The week of January 25^th:The State of the Union is finally here – so this week we’re going to detail what to look for, and what will be overshadowed by its coverage.

MBA readers here’s WHY YOU CARE: Given that we’ve hammered away at the high stakes game of what the Democrats can/can’t pass on Capitol Hill for Pres. Obama to list during the State of the Union, you might simply ask given the state of health care and financial reform – now what? Here’s the “what”…

1) Pictures are Worth a Thousand Votes: Without health care and finance reform crossing his desk, Pres. Obama and his White House advisors held a number of emergency meetings after the much reported on Massachusetts special election and emerged with a press conference proposing to limit proprietary trading – aka “Glass-Steagall-lite.” Capitol Hill and K Street were both stunned by the move that was made without much notice (we acknowledge that this grates against some of the reporting you read last week but we stand by our info). On the surface this seems like more banker bashing in the wake of reading polls following the Massachusetts election. That may be true, but it is also about a picture during the State of the Union. Here it is – Scenario 1: Pres. Obama announces his desire to pass legislation clipping banks’ wings on proprietary trading, Democrats jump to their feet and applaud and Republicans sit on their duffs. That’s a powerful populist image to run in commercials during tough elections in the Fall. Scenario 2: Pres. Obama makes the same call for legislation and both Democrats and Republicans jump to their feet, now Pres. Obama gets the legislation he wants and Democrats can say they got something accomplished come the Fall elections. This political calculation can be applied to how he will present health care, the so called “bank tax” and on and on. AND, this is why we were not shocked at all when a POLITICO breaking news alert landed in our blackberries on January 23 informing everyone that Pres. Obama would show a “feisty” side during the State of the Union. Translation: Pres. Obama showing impatient energy with Congress plus the proper camera framing and the midterm election commercial films itself.

2) Health Care is Linked to Financial Overhaul: If health care truly can’t get done in some form by the midterm elections, look for the White House to keep going back to those post Massachusetts election polls that show the economy and jobs to be voters’ paramount concerns with health care a distant third. That means the spotlight keeps on Senate Banking Cmte. Chmn. Dodd (by the way those “working groups” are very active this week doing meetings on the next draft of the Dodd finance reform bill). The irony is that the two populist proposals pushed by the White House are not at the crux of the current legislation. The question Wall Street should be asking itself is – in some ways does this help us? Does the administration focus their two populist issues and relax on others? Or is this a harbinger of the overall push for Democrats (and thus extra White House pressure on Chmn. Dodd who is in a personal position to compromise with Republicans given that he no longer faces re-election). We suspect that the White House is realistic enough to understand Chmn. Dodd has to compromise with Republicans in order to get finance reform done. Thus, we wouldn’t not be shocked to see a very modified Consumer Financial Protection Agency and curtailing of the Federal Reserve’s scope (but not without some internecine Democratic fighting). And speaking of Fed. Chmn. Ben Bernanke and the Fed…

3) Bernanke: We’ve been pointing out for a long time that his re-confirmation hearings were held late and his term is up come January 31^st. The latest statements from the White House and Capitol Hill indicate he will likely be reappointed (although nothing is for sure given that Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) has come out against him (1/25), and in some ways he is a beneficiary of the State of the Union sucking up the coverage oxygen this week by not making him a bigger story. Same goes for those testifying before Congress on AIG this week (noted below), and you could even say that for the budget numbers that will come from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) this week (noted below). Speaking of those budget numbers…

4) Budget Numbers: The CBO numbers may get little play on the nightly news and newspaper front pages because of the State of the Union, but you bet Republicans will be scrutinizing them. And, if you check out our look ahead section you’ll note that Pres. Obama has to release his budget numbers very soon as well. That’s why we think Friday afternoon is an excellent candidate to drop the White House budget numbers amidst the follow up to the State of the Union. However, if they do come out Friday – it would likely be AFTER Pres. Obama addresses the House Republicans on their retreat. That’s our reading of the tea leaves.

MBA wannabes here’s WHY YOU CARE: We suggest the following strategy to cut through the clutter of news coverage: 1) Keep your focus on the second point we made above for the MBA readers – Capitol Hill reporters should have in the next week a sense of where health care is going, and thus the timing of finance reform, and 2) substantively look in the business pages for leaks as to the direction of the Senate Banking Cmte. “working groups” and where they are going on the next draft of the finance reform bill (although we bet you don’t see leaks on this before next week).

Here’s the week:

MONDAY 1/25

Economic Report: Natl. Assoc. of Realtors info on existing homes sales (for Dec.).

Earnings: Apple Inc. and Halliburton.

GM: GM to name permanent CEO.

Pres. Obama: Attends Middle Class Task Force meeting with VP Biden and Treas. Secy. Geithner. Also, hosts LA Lakers at the White House.

TUESDAY 1/26

Economic Reports: Case Shiller Home Price Index (for Nov.), Consumer Confidence (for Jan.), FHFA Home Price Index (for Nov.).

Earnings: DuPont, Johnson & Johnson, Verizon and Yahoo, Inc.

Pres. Obama: TBD.

Fed Watch: Federal Open Market Committee meeting (1/26-1/27).

Dem Leadership; House Maj. Leader Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD) at the National Press Club on Dem agenda.

IMF’s Econ. Outlook: The IMF holds a news conference on the global economic outlook (Washington, DC).

CBO Budget: The Congressional Budget Office releases a 2010 budget (followed by a press conference by CBO Dir. Douglas Elmendorf).

Senate Hearing: Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Cmte. on “Intelligence Reform: The Lessons and Implications of the Christmas Day Attack.”

WEDNESDAY 1/27

Economic Reports: Mortgage Bankers Assoc’s weekly mortgage application info and New Home Sales (for Dec.).

Earnings: BlackRock, Inc.; Caterpillar, Inc.; ConocoPhillips; E*TRADE Financial Corp.; The Boeing Company; and The McClatchy Company.

Pres. Obama: Pres. Obama’s State of the Union.

Fed Watch: Federal Open Market Committee meeting (1/26-1/27).

TARP Oversight Panel: TARP’s Congressional Oversight Panel holds a field hearing (Atlanta, GA) on commercial real estate. Witnesses include: Fed’s Assoc. Dir. of the Division of Banking Supervision.

House Hearing: House Oversight and Govt. Reform Cmte. holds a hearing on the NY Fed Reserve Bank and AIG. Witnesses include: Treas. Secy. Timothy Geithner and TARP Special Inspector General Nail Barofsky, NY Fed General Counsel Thomas Baxter and Fmr. AIG CFO Elias Habayeb.

House Hearing: House Budget Cmte. on economic outlook and the budget.

House Hearing: House Financial Services Cmte’s International Monetary Policy and Trade Panel on “The State of Global Microfinance: How Public and Private Funds Can Effectively Promote Financial Inclusion for All.”

House Hearing: House Homeland Security Cmte. on “Flight 253: Learning Lessons from an Averted Tragedy.”

SEC: Securities and Exchange Commission to meet on (among other items) money market funds.

World Economic Forum: Davos, Switzerland 1/27-1/31.

THURSDAY 1/28

Economic Report: Initial Unemployment Claims (for 1/23).

Earnings: 3M Company; Altria Group, Inc.; Amazon.com, Inc.; AT&T; Bristol-Myers Squibb; Colgate-Palmolive; Ford Motor Company; Invesco Ltd.; Janus Capital Group Inc.; Lockheed Martin; Microsoft; Nokia; Procter & Gamble Company; and Time Warner Cable, Inc.

Pres. Obama: Event with VP Biden in Tampa, FL.

Bernanke: Senate expected to vote on his reconfirmation (otherwise his term expires 1/31/10). [Updated: 1/27].

FDIC: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Advisory Cmte. on Community Banking meets on community banks and capital.

Senate Hearing: Senate Budget Cmte. on economic outlook and the budget.

World Economic Forum: Davos, Switzerland 1/27-1/31.

FRIDAY 1/29

Earnings: Chevron.

Economic Report: Adjusted Fourth Quarter GDP.

FDIC: The FDIC holds a symposium on Interest Rate Risk Management. Attendees include: Fed Vice Chmn. Donald Kohn (speech on Focusing on Bank Institution Interest Rate Exposure).

Pres. Obama: To address GOP House retreat.

World Economic Forum: Davos, Switzerland 1/27-1/31.

LOOK AHEAD:

February 1^st: Pres. Obama to submit his budget.

February 1^st: Economic Report: Construction Spending.

February 2nd: Senate Banking Cmte. hearing on risk and banks with the President’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board Chmn. Paul Volcker. [Updated: 1/27].