Sustainable Development Strategies

Motivating Staff to be Sustainable

2009-07-09T16:36:00.001+01:00

Staff motivation is always an issue and it has been a recurring theme at the Low Carbon Best Practice Exchange events held around the country. Very often the question is “How do you keep people interested once the first enthusiasm has worn off?”

Representatives from all sorts of industries - from bus companies to barristers and hotels to hospitals - have all shared ideas. So, how do you keep the ball rolling once the first few months have passed?

The first point that nearly everyone makes is self-interest. “What’s in it for me?” People are often happy to help an organisation succeed, but after a while, if it’s all about how much money the company is saving and how much better the bottom line looks, they want a share of the savings for themselves. A leading confectionery manager addresses this head on with a bonus scheme. One of the nation’s largest bus companies does much the same. Fuel is a very significant cost for them. An extra 1p/litre on diesel increases their bill, (and reduces their profits) by no less than £1m annually, so they send all their drivers on economical driving courses. The drivers then qualify for a share of all the savings made.

Some people have a personal commitment to sustainability and are less motivated by money than by recognition of their personal achievements. A major telecoms company has Carbon Clubs with a website, news and awards. There is a pledging scheme where staff choose from a list or post their own targets. There is clear top-level endorsement, and 66% of staff say they take pride in the company’s environmental performance. Some organisations go further and encourage their staff to set targets for home as well as work. Incentives like a mountain bike can get people interested and sometimes it is possible to set up competitive rivalry between different departments. Some very generous organisations will advance loans for the purchase of hybrid cars or send employees off on trips to save the rain-forest or help with conservation projects.

Travel-to-work plans, involving car-sharing and cycling, can be popular, but there can be resistance to some green initiatives in this time of cost-cutting. There is often resistance, too, from middle managers who see other things as more important. Training is essential so that these people - many of whom are strongly sceptical of anything green - fully understand the business reasons for adopting environmental best practice. Sometimes a phased approach can help, rather than laying on a whole raft of new initiatives all at once.

In many cases the importance of environmental policy is gauged by the importance of the people who support it. The lead must come from the top. The green agenda must given due prominence in senior management briefings, and not just tacked on at the end. Don’t underestimated the difficulty of getting senior management on board. One organisation tried reimbursing business miles on the basis of the least reward for the least eco-friendly cars. The problem with this was motivating senior management. They were very reluctant to approve a scheme which penalised the sort of prestige car which they thought they ought to be driving!

Industrial psychology makes it clear that people will not respond if things are simply imposed; they must understand and agree before they will buy in. So while top management may be persuaded to buy in, the next essential is effective communication to all levels of the organisation.

I worked with a business machinery supplier where the green policy came from world head quarters. Nevertheless, local sales staff didn’t see it as a priority, so an environmental manager was appointed in each country to help middle managers and to provide a link with the policy-makers at HQ. They also worked with the local community and organised initiatives like farmers’ markets or cycle-to-work schemes. Many companies also use such environmental champions; often they are unpaid volunteers and sometimes their managers begrudge them the time off. In other cases heads of department may send along someone to environmental committees just to make up the numbers, not necessarily a person who is committed to the green agenda. Again this emphasises the need to inform and motivate management at all levels.

Experience shows that encouraging staff to work with the local community on green initiatives is a good motivator - and good PR. Some organisations will formalise environmental responsibilities as part of a staff member’s role and putting people on projects can be valuable learning experience for them. It is important to celebrate their successes. Feedback is essential. How about summarising key successes in bullet points and pasting them on the back of the toilet doors? Hard to ignore!

One problem with feedback is that many of the statistics about climate and emissions are very difficult to imagine. What does a tonne of CO2 look like, for example? These things need to be related to everyday experience - maybe something like the volume of Wembley Stadium. Or you could have a graphic on your website. What about a green tree which grows additional leaves as the company increases its carbon savings?

Sometimes there can be negative motivation at corporate level. The attitude of major customers and pressure from taxes and other outside factors can all make their mark. For example, supermarkets are very keen that their suppliers should be as efficient as possible, but then they expect these efficiencies to be passed on to them in lower prices. Secondly, since energy prices and waste disposal costs are rising, companies have to make continued efforts just to stay in the same place. BT is introducing its Climate Stabilisation Index to take account of the fact that while its emissions are rising the number of clients and services provided is rising as well, and the net footprint per transaction is falling. (This may be good PR, but the fact is that the objective is to cut CO2 emissions by 80% absolutely, regardless of the level of economic activity.) The Carbon Reduction Commitment comes into force next year and already some people are concerned that it will be biased against organisations that are already efficient.

So, in summary, here are our TOP TEN TIPS for motivating staff to be green:

1. Align messages with your corporate commitment

In other words - walk the talk. Make sure your policy is consistent both internally and externally - and seen to be so.

2. Provide an incentive

Maybe a bonus scheme, maybe an award ceremony, maybe both.

3. Choose an initiative that will reach everyone

Or let people choose their own challenges

4. Monitor progress

Otherwise how do people know what they’ve achieved?

5. Provide positive feedback

Thank-you may be enough; others may need a cash reward. Make it a win-win situation.

6. Provide resources to support action

Time can be as valuable as money

7. Be imaginative

Keep the ideas coming

8. Keep the momentum

Have a plan. There must always be the next success to strive for.

9. Continue to improve the process

Build on the knowledge gained from feedback

10. Empower people to get involved

The best way to ensure success in any field!

Cyber Associates can design your sustainability strategy, train your staff and set up the feedback loop to keep them engaged and motivated.

www.cyber-associates.com

Carbon Reduction Commitment

2009-07-09T12:20:00.002+01:00

Is CRC just another tax?

If you’re liable for the Carbon Reduction Commitment (CRC) you should have heard from the Environment Agency by now. This measure will affect about 20,000 UK organisations - public and private - who pay for their electricity via a ‘half-hour’ meter. That’s any organisation with a peak load exceeding 100kW. About 5,000 of these will be spending £500,000 or more annually on electricity, and they will be full participants in the scheme. What does this mean? Any organisation with a half-hour meter will have to report its energy use and its carbon footprint. Not just for the department with the heavy electricity usage, but for the whole organisation including subsidiaries, branch offices and remote sites. Not just electricity consumption, but gas and fuel oil as well. Auditable records must be kept and there are penalties for non-compliance. Reporting starts now and in April 2011 the 5,000 largest users will have to pay for their CO2 emissions at £12/tonne, both for actual emissions in 2010/11 and forecast emissions in 2011/12. How much will that be for your organisation?

So is this just another tax? The government might say not, because in October 2011 it’s going to give all this money back - yes, every penny. What’s the point? On the basis of actual emissions in 2010/11 the government will construct a league table, ranking organisations according to how good they have been at reducing their emissions. When the government returns the levy the best performers will get more than they paid and the worst performers will get less. And the following year the targets will get harder.

This is all part of the obligation under the Climate Change Act to cut CO2 by 34% by 2020 and 80% by 2050. With UK emissions still growing, even standing still will be difficult. The oil price has been on the rise for most of this year, so energy is going to be expensive to buy and if you use it inefficiently the government is making it expensive to use!

Whatever the size of your organisation, have you got an environmental management system (EMS)? An EMS is a system of procedures and controls providing a framework for the management of energy, resources and waste. It will help you identify your energy usage and carbon footprint, to control them and monitor the savings achieved.

Cyber Associates have the skills and experience to help you design, implement and maintain an Environmental Management System for your organisation to ISO 14001.

More information at www.cyber-associates.com

Low Carbon Futures - The Prince's May Day Summit

2009-05-04T18:51:00.003+01:00

Last Friday I attended the Prince’s May Day Summit. That’s the Prince of Wales’s third annual convention of businesses committed to a low carbon future, sponsored by Carbon Action Yorkshire, CE Electric UK and KCom Group. The event links London to regional centres all round the country, at least the first one did two years ago. We voted on issues, shared the results with the nation and spoke direct to the national audience. A bit like the Last Night of the Proms, actually, with big screens and reporters across the country. Not this time, though. This year we watched as the Prince and other speakers addressed what looked like a very small London audience. And we only watched - there was no feedback from the regions.

Strange - and disappointing - because since the Carbon Budget and Obama’s green grandstanding, low carbon and climate change are almost mainstream. I was at the regional session in Hull, an enthusiastic meeting ably chaired by Peter Hobday. If we hadn’t had the London link I’d have come away encouraged that more and more people were on side. In Hull the presentations were positive. They didn’t minimise the climate change risks and they showed us best practice and they showed us opportunities. They made us realise that the world is fundamentally changing, that established and accepted business models may suddenly cease to be relevant and unimagined models may suddenly steal your market. Think Amazon. Think iTunes store.

Case studies showed how companies are actively reducing their carbon footprint, and doing it for business reasons. Ariel low-temperature detergent was developed because more CO2 was released through heating water in the washing machine than in the rest of the production, distribution and usage cycle. Marshalls the paving people were the first to footprint all 500 of their products - the nearest competitor has footprinted nine - and they now know how and where to cut carbon further. Their customers know that this is a company which is serious about the environment. ASDA recycles, sources locally and deals with sustainable suppliers. KCOM engages with staff to support its green initiatives.

We learnt about scenario planning; not as a means of predicting the future nor as business continuity planning. Scenarios ask “What if?” What if your key materials double or quadruple in price? What if energy rises by a factor of 10? What if your major customer goes bust? Examining such scenarios helps your company be prepared. The value is in the process, not the result; the process of questioning unquestioned truths, establishing the consequences, weighing the risks and defining the options.

One statistic that I won’t forget showed that while material wealth has steadily grown in the UK since 1960, satisfaction has stayed at the same level. Apparently, we do not need material wealth for a fulfilling life. The problem is that growth has been the only goal for more than a generation; we have no alternative vision and people are scared to give up what they have.

So here’s the challenge. Let’s stop scaring people with global meltdown, climate catastrophe and the end of the world. Let’s draw up our low carbon futures and show people how they can be more relaxing, more fulfilling and maybe more stimulating than the ambitions we have now. At least I came away from the May Day Summit believing that we certainly have the people who can imagine these futures - and the people able and determined to make them reality.

Is the future of your business a low-carbon future? It’s got to be! If you want to talk about how, give me a call - 01904 654986.

Electric Cars? Electric Dreams!

2009-04-16T08:48:00.001+01:00

Why do government pronouncements keep bringing the phrase "Away with the fairies" to mind? So the future is the electric car. Where are we supposed to get the electricity from? We have no surplus electricity; we have ageing power stations with replacements at least a decade away and a national grid close to capacity. We generate our electricity from imported coal (dirty), imported gas (expensive since the pound fell) and nuclear (overdue for replacement). Renewables provide 5% at best and will take time and money to increase their unpredictable and intermittent output.

The UK is on the brink of an energy crisis and the answer is not Noddy cars but urgent and comprehensive energy conservation.

Insulate, insulate, insulate, and dare to ask the question, "Is your journey really necessary?"

Sustainable Savings

2009-03-27T11:20:00.003Z

SUSBIZ Sustainable Business Strategies.

A few notes on how climate change and sustainability affect business. I’m going to talk about the Archbishop of Canterbury, Lord Stern and the Institute of Directors. I’m running a teleclass with a few places left on Tuesday, and next week I shall be going up to the Low Carbon Best Practice Exchange in Newcastle. The RPI has come down, the CPI has gone up but the COBRA Matrix will help you deal with it, and at the beginning of May the Prince of Wales has his Mayday Summit on Climate Change.

Although the economy is in a state that nobody has seen for many, many years, it hasn’t pushed climate change and sustainability off the agenda. Pressure is coming from all quarters. The latest is the Archbishop of Canterbury who said that the case for action on climate change was a moral as well as a practical one. On Tuesday’s Radio 4 Today Programme he warned that billions could die if governments and individuals did not take moral responsibility for climate change now. Didn’t James Lovelock say much the same a few weeks ago? This comes after Lord Stern’s presentation to the Copenhagen Climate Conference when he said that the situation was very much worse than he had thought when he prepared his report on the economic consequences of climate change back in 2006.

But let’s not be negative! At a recent Institute of Directors event addressed by IOD environment spokesman David Boomer and by Todd Holden from Enworks we were told how adopting environmental policies could lead to a direct improvement in the bottom line. On the basis of studying more than 2000 companies it’s been shown that they saved 8% on energy, 2% on materials, 13% on water and up to 50% on waste. You can do a lot of this without spending any money. Apparently 70% of savings come from behaviour change. If you do need to invest to save, there’s a range of low carbon grants and soft loans. I’ve recently been looking at the work of Bob Willard who is a specialist in sustainable business based in Canada who also talks about the savings on staff costs which can be made from environmental policies; from improved morale and productivity to lowered recruitment costs and less turnover. It all depends on the structure of your business, of course, but anything that can make a quantifiable improvement to your bottom line, particularly in the present economic climate, must be valuable regardless of where it comes from.

Next Tuesday 31st March I’m running a teleclass which will cover these points and expand on them. This event is by invitation only but there are one of two places still available so if you want to take part please log on now to this link and you’ll find full details. The session will take place at 18:00 BST but if you can’t make it there will be a recording which will be available the following day.

Next week on 2nd April I shall be running a roundtable discussion session at the Low Carbon Best Practice Forum in Newcastle. If you haven’t already registered for the event go to www.Carbon–innovation.com

The big news this week is that inflation is going up, or at least it is as far as the Consumer Price Index is concerned. It’s risen from 3% to 3.2% while the Retail Price Index has declined to zero; no change. The difference is that the RPI includes housing costs which have been falling as house prices fall and mortgage rates are cut. Both these inflation indices are very crude instruments; it all depends on your lifestyle as to whether your costs are rising or falling. The other issue is the oil price. It peaked at $147 last July and crashed to $36 in January. Now it’s on the rise again - and after adjusting for the exchange rate in the UK it’s halfway back to last year’s peak.

In business, each organisation has its own set of risk factors and I’ve derived the COBRA Matrix to help managers balance impact against possibility. I’ll be covering this in Tuesday’s teleclass and there will be examples of the COBRA approach in the accompanying working papers. Download them here.

As I said to start with, pressure and the realization of the impact of climate change are coming from all quarters. On 1st May the Prince of Wales’s Mayday Summit on Climate Change takes place for the third year running. It brings together businesses at regional centres all over the country to report on progress and to commit to Carbon Reduction and environmental improvements for the year ahead. You can sign up here.

Government regulations demand that business become environmentally responsible and despite the economic environment, consumers are continuing to demand that organisations are green as well. You can find details of a survey published by the Carbon Trust here.

You don’t have to look far to find people who say how dreadful, how terrible, how earth-shattering the risks from climate change are. I prefer to concentrate on the opportunities for staying in business and staying in profit. In the coming weeks I shall be interviewing people from the Carbon Trust and Virgin Media among others to reinforce the positive message.

If you want to add your comments I look forward hearing from you. Add them to this blog or give me a call.
My name’s Anthony Day and my number is 01904654986. I hope we’ll talk soon.

The Age of Stupid

2009-03-16T06:28:00.004Z

Do we need another misery movie?

Review: The Age of Stupid - premiere at Leicester Square and 65 cinemas across the country.

In The Age of Stupid Pete Postlethwaite addresses us from the wrecked planet of 2055 and asks how we could be so stupid as to let climate change destroy humanity. He flicks through endless archives showing us the obvious clues to catastrophe from 2009 and before. It seemed a long film, partly because technical problems meant that about 30 minutes of footage was played twice. Partly, too, because it replayed the breast-beating and lamentations already seen in Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth, Leonardo di Caprio’s The Eleventh Hour, The Day After Tomorrow and all the rest.

What these films lack, and that includes the live debate following The Age of Stupid, is a credible call to action. Watching this film you might conclude that the best thing to do is to run your car on chip fat, live self-sufficiently on a small holding and protest against the nasty nimbies who oppose wind farms. It goes without saying that there’s not enough chip fat and not enough smallholdings. The effectiveness of wind farms is also very much in doubt. After the film Pete Postlethwaite pledged to give back his OBE if the government approved the proposed new Kingsnorth coal-fired power station. Ed Milliband was there to respond, but they let him off extremely lightly by not once mentioning government support for Heathrow’s third runway. Surely that’s a much more powerful national political issue than some power station down in Kent.

Sustainable economic growth is still possible in a low carbon economy, but if we are going to solve this problem we must all drive less, heat less and consume less. Life will be very different - potentially much more pleasant - if we take the low-carbon route. The Age of Stupid has missed the opportunity to show what ordinary people can do to safeguard our future, and to show what sort of future we can all enjoy if we act now. Certainly the showing raised enthusiasm both in Leicester Square and in the cinema where I was, but I fear that people will be rushing off to protest, rather than rushing off to change their lives.

Panic Over?

2008-06-23T18:34:00.002+01:00

Tanker drivers back at work - oil price stable (more or less) - Dyson to build electric cars and Honda launches a hydrogen car - five new main railway lines - retail sales up in May - Gordon in Saudi - ...and a renewable energy strategy which will cut our use of oil. So is it all over?

I’ve been away on holiday and it’s amazing what can change in a week. Before you ask, no, we didn’t fly anywhere, we went to Newcastle by train and walked the whole length of Hadrian’s Wall. (Well, all but 10 miles!)

Hello. I'm Anthony Day and I’m back again to talk to you about staying in business and staying profitable. Last time we were worried about the price of oil and a tanker drivers’ strike which was making petrol unobtainable as well as unaffordable. This week the drivers have gone back to work for a pay rise of only 14% and oil has (almost) stopped rising. But who’s worried about oil when there are suddenly a range of alternatives?

First, James Dyson, the vacuum cleaner king, is turning his talents to designing electric cars. He’s developed a super-efficient electric motor. Honda have announced their hydrogen car and Network Rail are looking into building no less than five new high-speed rail lines across the UK. The feel-good factor is reinforced by the news that retail sales in May were the highest for 22 years, but if you still think we need cheaper oil Gordon’s been out there in Saudi not only asking them to pump faster but also suggesting that they should invest in renewables in the UK.On 26th June the government publishes its Renewable Energy Strategy. The predictions are that this will include plans for 3,500 wind turbines and will reduce the nation’s use of oil by 7% by 2020.

So is this all good news? Is the panic over? Can we all go back to making money? People accuse me of being depressing, but all I’m trying to do is be realistic and look at the best choices for business in a future that’s far from clear.

The most important point is that we have an energy crisis, and while there are solutions like electric cars, new railway lines and thousands of wind turbines; none of these can become a reality in less than 5 years and the rest will take more like ten or twenty. Oil prices are high today. They may drift up and down over the coming months, but they are unlikely to drop below $100. My prediction is $180 by the end of the year and $300 by the end of 2010 unless we see a dramatic global recession. as I predicted last time, gas and electricity are on the rise and some reports talk of a 40% increase by Christmas.

As business people, what can we do? Maybe we should try a protest - it worked well for the tanker drivers! However, few businesses can hold their customers to ransom like that. Rather than waste time and effort on protests and demonstrations (a bit like Canute trying to turn back the waves) we should consider what to do to make the best of it. We need to assess the effect on our supply chain; on our suppliers and our customers. This need not be negative - suppliers of home insulation are surely going to see an upturn!

We need to act now, but we also need to plan for the future. Scenario planning lets you prepare for a number of alternative futures and therefore be more ready to cope with what actually happens. Take some time with your team to brainstorm to think the unthinkable and decide what you could do about it.

The truth is that the future is not rosy for those who believe that we can go back to business as usual. The good news is not good when we examine it in detail. For example, electric cars need to be built and bought, and are you going to buy one? How much energy will it take to replace the UK’s 30m cars? We’ll all charge them up a night when electricity demand is low - except demand won’t be low because we’ll all be charging our cars. So we’ll need more coal or gas or nuclear to run the power stations. Could be a bit of a problem as we are already finding it difficult to cope with current demand for electricity without all this demand displaced from oil. Much the same applies to hydrogen. The car itself is pollution-free but there’s a massive carbon footprint at the power station where they generate the energy to produce the hydrogen. The renewables strategy will apparently reduce our dependency on oil by 7% over 12 years. Given that North Sea oil output is declining by about 6% per annum, this is merely a drop in the bucket. And even Gordon Brown admitted that his visit to Saudi would have no immediate effect on prices at the pumps.

My message is that we have to plan for a different future in order to succeed. Those that don’t, like Canute, will first get their feet wet and then be washed away.

I’m Anthony Day. If you want to talk about scenario planning for how energy, climate and resources will affect your business, give me a call on 01904 654 986.

Fuel Prices and Your Business

2008-05-28T10:18:00.001+01:00

It’s always tempting to say I told you so, but those of you who have attended one of my workshops or seminars will know that I have been predicting energy shortages and fuel price increases and I always said that they would hit us much sooner than climate change.

Will climate change your business? Yes that’s still an issue, but what about the current fuel situation? We have hauliers protesting and threatening a blockade if the government doesn’t cut tax within a week, we have politicians saying that the government should shelve the increase in car tax and the proposed 2p increase on fuel duty. Apparently the Prime Minister and the Chancellor are meeting the oil industry today to find out whether they can pump more oil out of the North Sea.
So what’s the background to all this? Simply, supply and demand. Rapid economic expansion in China and India are driving the demand for oil and the supply of oil is finite. There is only a certain amount of oil in the ground and at the moment there are some problems with refinery capacity as well, which is restricting supply. Last week the International Energy Agency revised its forecasts for future oil production downwards leading to some of the speculation which has also driven up the price. So oil has gone up, and this has driven up the price of petrol and diesel, but it’s the government which is getting the pressure. It’s all too easy to blame the government and at the moment people are busy blaming it for everything. But it’s not just this government; it’s the previous government and every government we’ve had for the last half century. This is not an oil shock; this is not a surprise. Shortages and price increases have been predicted for about 50 years. Anyway, we are where we are so what do we do about it?

As you will have noticed, prices accelerated over a relatively short period of weeks. Any solutions like finding more reserves, just supposing there are any, will take years if not decades to bring on-stream. Even though the government may bow to pressure in the short term, we have a problem. In the long term we face continually rising energy costs and we may well see the pace of that increase rising rapidly.
In today’s Guardian, Gordon Brown talks about free insulation for people on low incomes, smart metering, carbon capture and storage generating stations and more nuclear power. None of this will solve the price or supply of petrol and diesel. Oil prices are going up and gas and electricity will not be far behind. This will affect you individually and it will affect your business.

Governments can be criticized because they have assumed that oil and energy will continue to be widely and cheaply available, in spite of the evidence which has been around for at least 50 years. It does not make sense to build more roads and more airports if there is going to be an energy shortage. It does not make sense to close post offices and to centralize schools and hospitals and other public services if there’s going to be an energy shortage. It does not make sense to encourage out of town shopping and the growth of supermarkets if there is going to be an energy shortage. Supermarkets are fine for the operators because they rely on the consumers to handle the last part of the distribution. The last part of the supply chain –from store to home – is arguably the most expensive and has the biggest carbon footprint. But it’s the consumer that pays for this.

Let’s also remember that oil and gas are not just fuels. They are raw materials for plastics, pharmaceuticals, fertilizers and many other products. We have not yet seen the full effect of the oil price on product prices, due not only to increased distribution costs but increased costs of manufacture. So everyone is going to see increased costs of living.

Your business will be affected because it will cost you more to run your vehicles, it will cost you more for lighting and heating and it will cost you more for energy used in the production processes. Most of us, though, are in a global supply chain so we need to understand the effects all this will have on our customers and the effect this will have on our suppliers. Even if the government cuts road tax and fuel duty there is a point beyond which it cannot go, and in any case it will have to replace lost revenues through other taxes. As the oil price continues to rise, the cost of fuel, the cost of travel, will rise. As an individual you will become increasingly aware of the costs of driving to the supermarket, of taking the kids to school, and taking trips at the weekend. You and your staff will become increasingly aware of the costs of commuting to work and for some people that will be a deciding factor on who they work for. We need to look at how people can work from home and we need the government to ensure that the bandwidth is available so that people can work from home. Of course we have to recognize that many jobs cannot be carried out from home so we have to plan to be able to get the right staff in the right places.
We live in a global economy and very many organizations now either have their own factories in China and the Far East or buy from suppliers in those countries. The decisions to rely on those sources of supply were not taken overnight and were frequently many years in the planning. You need to look again at your supply chain and ask how increasing energy costs and material costs will affect it in the future. If you need to change, you need to plan. You may be facing a process which will take years to implement. Unless you start now you could be out of business if things get really bad in a few years time. Now is the time for scenario planning. What if? What if? What if?

I know it’s a cliché but the pace of change is accelerating and only those who plan will survive. Oh, and what about climate change? Climate change is still a business issue in even though the signs are that the government will cave in to pressure over fuel prices and help people to continue to use as much energy and emit as much carbon as before, at least in the short term. Nevertheless, there is still the Climate Change Bill shortly to be passed and there is still a wide range of environmental regulations affecting all businesses. We have still got to make sure that we comply.

Next month I present a workshop entitled Best Practice for Environmental Champions at the Low Carbon Innovation Exchange in London. I shall be covering all these issues, and whatever else has arisen in the meantime.

Maybe see you there, but if you want to talk about scenario planning and how these issues affect your business give me a call on 01904 654986.

I’m Anthony Day and I look forward to hearing from you.

Listen here!

2007-10-21T17:35:00.000+01:00

I know I haven't been posting for a while. That's because I've been podcasting. You can catch up with my latest thoughts at www.susbiz.biz

This week you'll hear thoughts on keeping your business in business - fossil fuels or bio-fuels? - Paul Clarke on why it makes sense to drive a green car (www.green-car-guide.com) - carbon targets, carbon trading and better use of resources from Mike Smith at Yorkshire Forward (www.yorkshire-forward.com) - and has someone got it in for cows?

You don't need an iPod or MP3 player - you can listen in Windows Media Player on your desktop. Click here to give it a try!

"The time for doubt has passed"

2007-09-25T08:40:00.000+01:00

That’s what U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said at yesterday’s Climate Change summit. The chief U.N. climate scientist, Rajendra Pachauri, said, “The time is up for inaction.”

Billed as the largest ever high-level meeting on climate change, the event re-emphasised the commitment of global governments to action. The next opportunity will be the Bali conference in December, when delegates meet to design a successor to the Kyoto Protocol. This commits nations to a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2012. The task of Bali is to set targets for future decades.

Doubts remain, however, with George W Bush. The US president did not attend the summit, although he joined the delegates for dinner. He has his own climate change event later this week and has invited the world’s sixteen top polluting nations. Environmentalists are concerned that the US wants to hijack the debate, or at least muddy the waters. The US is believed to oppose mandatory carbon targets, preferring each country to set voluntary levels. They also want developing countries to reduce their carbon emissions, even though they are far lower than American emissions.

The US has an increasingly difficult energy supply situation, though it has plenty of coal – one of the most polluting fuels. Cutting back on energy use or making energy more expensive by installing carbon clean-up technology will impact the American economy – currently showing signs of weakness - and George Bush will protect it at all costs.AAfter all, wasn’t it George Bush Snr who said, “It’s the economy, stupid”?

Some people are beginning to say, “No, it’s the environment, stupid.” Without an environment there can be no economy.

Liberal Helping

2007-09-22T09:18:00.000+01:00

As the LibDem conference comes to a close we’ve seen another expression of green policies. The LibDems are particularly upset, because alone of the three major parties they have been talking about environmental issues for years. Both Labour and the Conservatives now have a green agenda, but the worrying thing is that there’s no consensus.

Measures that will really make a difference to our carbon emissions will not be popular with the voters. Two million signed a Downing Street petition against road pricing, and last week I saw one of those chain emails claiming that high petrol prices were an oil company conspiracy and we could drive prices down to 69p a litre if we only stopped buying from Esso and BP. If all the political parties adopted the same policies on the environment then elections would change nothing. Unfortunately there is still argument between the parties – and argument within parties. One LibDem was heard to say that green policies were about as realistic as perpetual motion! More public education clearly needed.

And will the parties stop arguing about green issues and work together to actually do something? As the Labour Party gathers for this week’s conference we can only wait and see.

They think it's all over

2007-09-20T08:15:00.001+01:00

Latest reports from the IPCC, the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, indicate that a 2 degree rise in world temperatures is inevitable – within 10 years. There is now so much excess carbon dioxide in the global system that it is too late to stop this happening; there’s nothing we can do. It’s time to face up to the consequences and prepare to adapt to them.

Ironically the prosperous West may benefit form the temperature rise in the short term. Higher temperatures will mean substantially increased crop yields in North America, Northern Europe and Russia. Elsewhere the opposite is true. In some parts of the Third World flash floods will wash the crops from the fields and destroy buildings, bridges and roads. Rising sea levels will make other places uninhabitable – already parts of the Maldives have had to be abandoned.

Too much water in some places; too little elsewhere as the Himalayan glaciers melt and the rivers they fill run dry. Up to a billion people will lose their water supply. Many species will become extinct and diseases will appear in places where they have never been seen before.

All this sounds apocalyptic. Too dreadful to be true. Turn the page – let’s not think about it. And what can we do about it anyway? And there on the next page is an advertisement from the energy company Total. “Total is pursuing the development of gas fields across the globe…” And burning more gas releases more CO2. Three degrees? Four degrees? Six degrees?

It needs government action. It needs big business to take action. What we can do is be aware of what is going to happen and be aware of how it will change our lifestyles. We need to do as much as we can to cut our individual carbon footprints. We can change public opinion. Enough public opinion influences government and changes business behaviour.

Within 10 years. That means it won’t just affect our children or our grandchildren. It’s going to affect us.

More on Biofuels

2007-09-16T18:15:00.000+01:00

We can't just write off biofuels, but we can't accept them blindly either. My view is that there are only three solutions to the coming energy crisis: reduce, reduce and reduce. (Yes I know it's an old one) Once we have minimised our fuel use, where do we get the remainder from?

In some circumstances biofuels are economically viable, but in some cases they are not. US farmers are heavily subsidised to grow crops for bio-ethanol, but it is very doubtful that the energy in the bio-fuel exceeds the energy needed to plough the fields, fertilise the crop, irrigate it, spray it against diseases and pests (and produce and deliver the fertilisers and insecticides to the farm), harvest it, process it and deliver it to the refinery and then refine it. It's good business for US farmers, but it's pushed up the world price of wheat which is affecting UK pig farmers and third-world countries trying to buy food.

Have you seen this month's Ecologist magazine? An article talks about how Colombia is becoming a major producer of African oil palm, a biofuel plant. This development is supported by the US and the EU, and on the face of it, it's attractive. It provides a source of green fuel (plant growth is more effective in warmer Colombia) and it can displace some of the drug barons' coca crops. The drug barons see an opportunity too. They are taking over the land, if necessary driving out the local farmers at gunpoint, and planting the oil palms. The government plans to cover an area twice the size of Belgium with the trees. If necessary they cut down the rain forest. Mono culture is rarely viable, and before long the land is exhausted and turned to scrubland. The rain forest has been destroyed, the ecosystems have been destroyed, the livelihood of the local people has been destroyed and the possibility of growing more biofuel crops on that land has been destroyed - and for what? To allow Westerners to continue to drive highly inefficient vehicles!

Our fatal assumption is that we will be able to continue with our present lifestyle and continue to enjoy the same access to energy, but just get it from different sources. There is a serious risk that if we don't wake up to reality, and if chase solutions without thinking through their consequences, we will destroy the planet faster than ever before!

Every little helps

2007-09-12T18:43:00.000+01:00

Yesterday I met Ian Berry, past president of the National Speakers Association of Australia. Ian speaks and advises companies on management and leadership, based on his long experience at senior level in major corporates. www.remacue.com He’s concerned, too, with the future of businesses. Climate change is a key issue, but he sees it as part of the wider sustainability picture, which also includes resource depletion, energy security and corporate social responsibility. In his view business has the key to our future survival. He believes that businesses and pressure groups will form alliances and take actions long before governments get round to doing anything – and businesses truly have the power to make significant changes.

Today we hear that Tesco is giving £25m to Manchester University to set up the Institute for Sustainable Consumption. It’s easy to accuse the retailers – and others – of riding the green bandwagon just to keep up with their competitors, but £25m is serious money and once the Institute is established it will surely be difficult to ignore it. And if I heard Terry Leahy correctly, the ultimate objective at Tesco is an 80% carbon reduction.. That’s far more than the target the government is set to miss. It will be interesting to see which other organisations will set themselves similar challenges.

For the moment, the prize for leadership goes to Tesco.

Too late to save the planet

2007-09-09T09:54:00.000+01:00

The BBC can be criticised for the way it justified abandoning Planet Relief, but the truth is that a television spectacular would have achieved nothing. Yes, many people would have made pledges and yes, some may have sent money, but most of us have excellent reasons for making long-haul flights, driving large cars and constantly consuming. In any case we cannot stop climate change. Even if all nations fulfilled their Kyoto targets the best we could hope for would be slowing it down, but with the US refusing to sign and the UK and the rest falling short even this will not be achieved.

British government action on climate is largely lip-service and superficial. They continue to build roads, support airport expansion and subsidise wind farms – the most ineffective form of renewable energy. The implication of their policies is that fossil fuels are limitless; they ignore the carbon consequences of burning all these fuels. They dare not tax energy, cut petrol use though road pricing or restrict air travel. There lies electoral suicide. That leaves action up to us.

Concern for climate change must not blind us to the threats of pollution, resource depletion and particularly energy shortages. It makes sense to address all of these by reducing, re-using and recycling as environmentalists recommend. This won’t save the planet but it may help us cope with the dire conditions we can expect as the oil and everything else starts to run out.

Let’s face up to the consequences of climate change rather than pretending that a TV show or anything else we do will stop it happening.

Careless Words - an aside

2007-07-23T14:45:00.000+01:00

As I hope you're aware, one of my taglines is "Will climate change your life?" - it's even the title of my book. Bit disappointing then to realise is that "change your life" is a phrase that triggers many spam filters. So if I sent you this by email you probably wouldn't ever get it!

Happily, "Will climate change your business?" is where I am now concentrating my efforts, and I've also registered www.towardsustainability.com in anticipation of market developments. Still, it just shows you can't be too careful!

Have a good week!

Let’s go carbon neutral!

2007-07-17T09:34:00.000+01:00

Channel 4 was severely criticized for its programme about the "Great Global Warming Swindle" and last night turned its attention to carbon offsetting. This was an altogether more balanced documentary and demonstrated that the ideas of carbon offsetting and carbon neutrality need to be approached with scepticism.

Many big names on the high street, including HSBC, Barclays, Sky and Marks and Spencer either claim to be carbon neutral or to be on the way to achieving that state. What does this mean? Every individual, household or organization causes a certain amount of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, to be emitted. The major trigger is energy; we all use energy and most of it is created from the combustion of fossil fuels – oil, gas or coal.

Organizations that want to be carbon neutral try and reduce their use of energy as far as possible. For the energy that they cannot avoid using, they deal with the emissions caused by buying offsets. For example, if a lorry travelling the length of the country day in and day out creates ten tons of carbon dioxide, planting a specified number of trees will cause that CO2 to be absorbed. The programme showed other offsetting projects: the pig farm where methane from the pig manure was trapped and prevented from escaping into the atmosphere; the hydroelectric power station in Eastern Europe which emits no CO2 at all. If an organisation buys enough offsets it can claim that the net effect is neutral - overall it is adding no CO2 to the global atmosphere.

The problem is that there are inconsistencies and imprecision at every stage of the process. To start with, you need to define exactly how much carbon dioxide is being emitted before you know how much you have to offset. There are no universally agreed standards and this can lead to farcical situations. If you want to offset the emissions created by your air travel, British Airways will sell you offsets provided by Climate Care. However, if you approach Climate Care directly to offset your flights, they will charge you more because they use a different method of calculation from British Airways and they believe that the emissions caused by flights are greater.

Suppose we have agreed on how much carbon dioxide needs to be offset. How effective are the proposed solutions? There is no doubt that trees absorb CO2 as they grow. It will, however, take several decades to absorb the CO2 that your flight emits in an afternoon. Some of the trees shown on the programme were far more heavily subsidized by the Forestry Commission than by the purchasers of offsets. If the trees would have been planted anyway, they cannot be considered as truly offsetting a particular purchaser’s emissions. There is also the problem that trees do not live for ever and while they may a lock up the carbon dioxide for a time, it will be released when the tree eventually dies and rots or is burnt. In any case, when you think of the hundreds of thousands of people in the UK who make flights every day, it is clear that trees cannot be the whole solution.

What about the hydroelectric power station in the Eastern Europe? Suppose the developer has the choice between a fossil fuel power station emitting CO2 and a hydro station which emits none. If this is a new development, building the hydro station avoids a certain amount of CO2 emissions, but it does not reduce emissions unless a fossil fuel station of the same size is closed down. There was no suggestion in the film that this was the case, (and by the way it seemed unlikely that the carbon offset payments made by Sky to the project had had any effect on whether it was going to be built or not.) The scheme does not appear to have reduced the global CO2 burden so it cannot be considered as an offset. Sky’s claim to be a carbon neutral organization is difficult to support.

As I said at the start, there is no clear universal definition of carbon footprints or carbon neutrality. Organizations can define them as they wish and can, in their own terms, claim to be carbon neutral. This is good marketing and attractive to responsible consumers. The problem is that it is doing practically nothing to reduce the CO2 in the atmosphere or to have any effect on climate change.

It is very much like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. It may make people feel more comfortable and make them believe that something is being done about the dangers ahead. In fact there are icebergs ahead – only this time the problem is that they’re melting!

Taking Precautions?

2007-07-16T17:43:00.000+01:00

Have a look at the video on this link. It’s called “The Most Terrifying Video You’ll Ever See”. What it sets out to do is to simplify the climate change issues so that the solution becomes obvious.
Dangerous Climate Change will either happen or not happen: two possibilities. We can either take action or take no action: two strategies. This is then resolved into a simple 2x2 matrix:

Plan A
Plan A is Take Action. If climate change is NOT real, this strategy brings negative consequences. We cut back on carbon emissions by suppressing economic activity and we end up with a severe depression and then we find that it was all a waste of time.
However if climate change IS real this strategy helps us adapt and survive. Although we will have changed lifestyles and business models our actions will help us cope with the consequences of climate change.

Plan B
Plan B is Take NO Action. If climate change is NOT real and we take no action then things go on as they are, just getting better all the time.
However, if it IS real and we have done nothing about it, we are in serious trouble. We will see economic collapse, famine, flood, starvation, epidemics war and refugees. This is the worst case scenario.

As you will see from the video, the presenter says our course of action is a no-brainer. If Plan B could lead to the worst case scenario then the prudent course of action is to follow Plan A, because the worst case scenario will then be avoided.

No contest?

Well if we adopt Plan A and eliminate the worst case scenario we also eliminate the best case scenario – no action, no problem, no change. If we adopt Plan A things are going to get worse whether climate change is real or not. Even if climate change is real and Plan A helps us deal with it, our lives will be very different and will be seen by many to be worse. Never mind that they might have been far worse if we had done nothing; people will not have experienced that situation, only the relatively comfortable situation that existed before we started taking action. Many will refuse to accept that action was the right thing.

If dangerous climate change is as likely as no climate change, people will be more likely to accept the status quo and do nothing. If they think that climate change is less likely than no climate change then they will certainly do nothing. After all, two weeks ago a survey revealed that 56% of people in the UK believe (wrongly) that scientists are still in doubt as to whether human activity plays any part in global warming. And if the scientists can’t agree, who’s going to sell their car, stop the foreign holidays and turn down the central heating? Plan B – do nothing – will be favourite.

Maybe the shock of increased energy prices will make people think again, but until something like that happens no government that wants to get re-elected is going to take sufficient action to have an effect on climate change.

Footprints in the sky

2007-07-16T17:26:00.000+01:00

Private air travel is growing dramatically. Charter passengers, including those using private jets, have risen from 3.5 million to 34 million in the 10 years from 1996 to 2006.

A private jet is attractive to those who can afford it because it saves time. You don’t need to head for a major hub like Manchester, Birmingham, Heathrow or Gatwick – you can leave from your local airfield. You can arrive 15 minutes before departure and embark without all those hours of security checks. At the destination your driver can meet you on the tarmac. It may be more expensive than business class, but for some people it’s worth it. London’s position as the leading financial centre in the world means that there are many wealthy people who will spend their money to save their precious time. Not just for business trips either: private jets make it perfectly possible to have weekends at the villa or on the ski slopes.

And what about the carbon footprint? The whole idea of one family jetting off in a private plane seems reckless, irresponsible, profligate. On the other hand, to paraphrase a well-known saying, the rich are always with us. And the rich would say that they create an enormous amount of the wealth of the UK that keeps people in jobs, funds the infrastructure through taxes and allows others to afford their own holidays in the sun. What these people don’t have is much time, so they spend their money to get the most out of it.

The wealthy people who take these flights can do so precisely because they are successful. They are the people who get things done and they are the people who will be crucial to taking the actions that will address climate change. We cannot afford to meet them head on. All we can do is present the evidence, suggest alternatives, map out the consequences. We all need to work together on this.

I hope we can reach consensus in time.

Save it!

2007-07-12T09:29:00.000+01:00

We all know that we need to save energy to save the planet. What most people don’t realize is that everything we eat, use or wear involves the use of energy and indirectly causes carbon dioxide emissions. One of the things we take least notice of is water, particularly in the UK where many households still pay a fixed fee for their water, regardless of how much they use. Of course, commercial premises and more and more homes are on metered supplies, but the cost of water, at least at present, is ignored by most people.

One cubic metre of water requires 1kWh of electricity or other energy to pump it, filter it, purify it, and deliver it to the consumer. Every cubic metre of water therefore has a carbon footprint. Although Britain has been suffering from floods in recent weeks, droughts and hose pipe bans are becoming more and more common in the summer and if we do experience the weather extremes as predicted, water shortages can only get worse.

With this in mind I was interested to see the Interflush device at a conference at York University. This is a simple way of varying the amount of water which is used to flush the lavatory. Although there are some dual-flush units, most flushing systems deliver a full cistern of water every time. The same amount of water is used whether liquids or solids need to be flushed away. The Interflush adapts the traditional flushing siphon so that the flow stops as soon as the handle is released. At the level of the individual household, the savings are relatively small. However, we know that if each household fitted a single compact fluorescent lamp (CFL) electricity demand would fall by the equivalent of the output of a whole power station. Similarly, if every household adopted an Interflush the carbon footprint of the water industry would be cut by 250,000 tons of CO2 . The cost of water would be reduced for all consumers and the existing infrastructure would be able to cope with an increase in the number of consumers without upgrading.

Have a look at the website and see what you think!

Spot the Difference

2007-07-12T08:56:00.000+01:00

The Great Global Warming Swindle, the Channel Four programme which claimed that carbon dioxide was not the cause of global warming, suggested that sunspots and solar activity were major force. The theory is that solar winds drive away the particles that cause clouds to form and the reduced cloud cover means that the surface of the earth warms. In fact, while this is a respected theory, the actual observations show that there was little solar wind at the time the global warming was observed.

Dr Michael Lockwood of the Rutherford Appleton Laboratories in Oxford has published a paper in the Proceedings of the Royal Society complaining that the programme was selective in the use of his research findings. The graphs that were displayed were cut short at the point at which global warming and solar activity clearly diverged. As Dr Lockwood said, the sceptics were “..taking perfectly good science and bringing it into disrepute.”

It looks as though man-made carbon dioxide is still firmly in the frame as a major cause of global warming.

Public opinion, however, still wants to believe that everything can go on as normal.

Mac mileage

2007-07-03T15:01:00.000+01:00

So McDonalds are going to use waste cooking oil to power their vehicle fleet. This is a company we all seem to love to hate, and at first sight we could be critical and point out that biofuels are certainly not carbon neutral and that growing crops for biofuel is already having an effect on the price of wheat. Nevertheless, McDonalds deserve congratulation for this initiative because they are using waste cooking oil to create the fuel; oil that would otherwise have to be disposed of carefully to avoid creating pollution.

A plant already exists in Scotland which creates biodiesel from organic waste. It’s pure recycling. It’s getting a useful product from material which otherwise would be dumped.

In the north east of England two major plants are under construction for the production of biofuel. These will use specially grown – and imported – raw materials and there is already much doubt and debate about the effects that growing these crops will have on rainforest clearance and on food production in poorer countries. I also wonder how long the producer countries will be prepared to export the raw materials. If they harvest and process the biodiesel at home, they have a much higher value product to sell, and surely it makes more sense to export finished goods than vast quantities of bulky primary goods.

Biofuel from waste is truly green – so three cheers for Ronald McDonald!

Talking of Climate Change…

2007-07-02T16:30:00.000+01:00

I spent this weekend at the Professional Speakers Association. We’re a group of experts who speak on our specialist subjects. My main activity is communicating the issues on energy and climate change to business audiences. As an expert on the topic it is essential that my communication skills are as good as they can be. Nothing is ever achieved if a message is sent but not properly received or understood. As a speaker I’m a member of Toastmasters International, which means that nearly every week I’m speaking in front of an audience – prepared speeches or impromptu – and getting feedback from the audience in a structured way. I know what I mean to tell them; often it’s very instructive to find out what they actually heard! Change of emphasis, change of pace, change of structure can all have a radical effect on the message received.

The Professional Speakers Association is for speakers making a business of speaking. Friday was a Board meeting and Chapter Leadership forum, but Saturday was one of our National Events. These events are designed for members but invited guests are welcome too. Our first session, which raised a lot of discussion, was given by Nick Oulton on the use of PowerPoint. Many people believe that slides have no place in a keynote speech because we are giving a speech, not making a presentation. Our speaker (presenter?) showed how badly PowerPoint can be used, and how dramatically different a well-designed presentation can be. Generally I’m with the purists: if it’s a slide show it’s not a speech. On the other hand, some of the statistics involved in energy and climate change are difficult to get across without a graph, and a flip-chart looks amateur. I can’t think of a prop I could use instead, but any suggestions gratefully received.

Our second speaker was Fergus McClelland, expert in all things vocal. He explained the different characteristics of all the microphones we are likely to come across. Each has different advantages and disadvantages and each must be tuned to your voice, so it’s important to make friends with the sound man who is likely to be working long hours and getting paid far less than the speaker. Fergus told us about recording equipment, mixing software and how to make our own CDs and podcasts.

Our third speaker was Terry Brock, stopping over on his world tour on his way back to Florida. Terry is into all things technical. He’s an entertaining and accomplished speaker and he was showing us how the latest technology can help us develop products and promote ourselves. It’s difficult to do him justice on the page, so I suggest you visit his website for yourself and find out the sort of things he’s recommending. I shall be adopting some of them myself, and you can be sure that I’ll let you know all about them.

As you know, I’m an expert who speaks about energy and climate change. I’m convinced that these are the greatest challenges that businesses and individuals currently face. The PSA helps me get that message across. Our Annual Convention will be at the Radisson Heathrow in November. Come and find out what Professional Speakers can do for you.

A World Without Oil (and Gas and Coal)

2007-06-15T12:47:00.000+01:00

Yesterday the Independent published a front-page article about the coming oil crisis. At last the media, or this part of it at least, have recognised that there’s an energy crisis ahead. The article was triggered by the publication of the latest edition of BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy. A number of industry experts have taken issue with the rosy view they claim the report is taking. Some of them believe that oil supplies will begin to run out in four years. Some believe that cheap oil has run out already.

Paradoxically, taxation is one of the factors that have cushioned the British public against the evidence of an increasing oil price. Petrol is taxed at a fixed sum per gallon; unlike VAT which is calculated as a percentage of the selling price. Because UK petrol duty is relatively high, the cost of the oil at the pump is only a small portion of the price paid. If the cost goes up, the petrol duty per litre does not. Thus in the UK the price of petrol has risen from 85p to 97p over the last few months; an increase of some 14%. Over the same period US prices have risen from $2 to $3 – a 50% increase caused by the same underlying rise in oil prices. Another factor is the dollar rate: as oil prices have gone up the dollar has declined, offsetting the increases for us in Europe. This cannot continue, however. The signs are that the oil producers are less willing to accept payment in dollars as the American economy weakens. This will push prices up for the rest of us.

Going back to the BP review; there are some startling figures. The report calculates R/P - the reserves to production ratio. So if a country has 100 barrels and uses 10 barrels per year the R/P is 10: they have enough reserves for another 10 years.

Take a look at the UK figures:
Coal R/P = 12 years
Oil R/P = 6.5 years
Gas R/P = 6 years

Of course we will not be able to maintain our production rates as these resources get harder to find and more difficult to extract, so they will last longer than implied. They are still running out, though, and the UK is increasingly dependent on foreign supplies.

Heavy Weather

2007-06-12T18:43:00.000+01:00

Climate change and global warming. Many people think we can look forward to more of the same only warmer, and particularly for those of us in the UK the prospect of warmer summers can’t be bad. The truth is that climate change is climate destabilisation, and the experts predict more unusual, more unseasonable and more violent weather.

Are we now seeing the evidence? Across a major part of the United States there are serious droughts. Droughts have gone on for so many years in parts of Australia that the government is planning to evacuate whole communities from areas that have become totally unviable. Then just this week, in the wine-growing Hunter Valley, another part of Australia, there have been torrential storms, flash floods, property damage and fatalities.

Last week there was a cyclone, though in the UK at least we heard little about it. It caused serious property damage and a number of people lost their lives. The scary thing about this cyclone, though, is not that it’s perhaps a bit early but that it occurred not in the US or Australia but in the Persian Gulf. They just don’t get cyclones there, but it tore through Muscat and Oman – you can see pictures of the damage in this blog.

Experts in climate change have mapped the weather over thousands of years, so it’s impossible to say whether the events of the last three or four years are evidence of a new trend. Even so, these storms are not inconsistent with the unpredictable, violent weather that climate change could bring. They may be a taste of things to come!