Will Rahal

George Rahal Blog

noreply@blogger.com (Will Rahal) — Sun, 03 Apr 2011 22:34:00 +0000

My son, George, has started up a blog with the new theme of focusing on insightful and educational essays, as well as forecasts. george-rahal.blogspot.com

In the Future...

noreply@blogger.com (Will Rahal) — Sat, 11 Apr 2009 17:04:00 +0000

If you would like to be notified if and when I resume blogging, please email me at will.rahal@gmail.com . I will store your email address and send a mass email BCC when the time comes.

Thank You.

noreply@blogger.com (Will Rahal) — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 20:02:00 +0000

You have been very kind with your comments.

As soon as I have more time available, I will try posting
sporadically.

Again, thank you.

Will

What's Fair is Fair

noreply@blogger.com (Will Rahal) — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 22:54:00 +0000

As some of you know, I have great responsibilities at work.

I find trading challenging, amusing and benefit from it handsomely.

This blog,however, was not intended to hold the hand of the
novice trader.

I have come to realize, moreover, that not everyone that follows
my blog is an adept trader.

It is unfair for this group that I do not provide more guidance,
but the fact that I have many other obligations makes this goal
impossible.

So, unless and until I have more time, I will refrain from having
a blog which carries the affliction of people's money.

I do thank all(well, almost all) of you for making this endeavor
pleasant.

That's All Folks!

noreply@blogger.com (Will Rahal) — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 14:33:00 +0000

I will stop blogging as of today.

It has been fun!

Thank you all.

Trading for April 6, 2009

noreply@blogger.com (Will Rahal) — Sun, 05 Apr 2009 23:10:00 +0000

Click picture to enlarge.

5-Day Momentum. S&P = yellow.
Price Momentum = blue. Intraday behavior = pink.

For Monday (4/6) the Up/Down Indicator is .44 suggesting
a negative bias for the Stock Market.

The S&P interval = 5.75 points.

Service Economy Peril: The Evidence

noreply@blogger.com (Will Rahal) — Sat, 04 Apr 2009 19:05:00 +0000

Last year I commented about the peril of an economy so heavily
tilted towards services.
Click "Service Fatigue" and
"Service Economy Peril"

The Service Sector represented 84% of US. Employment.

Jobs are dependent on consumption.

The Y/Y percent change in Service Consumption has decline to
historic lows.

This has led to job destruction surpassing that of the feeble
Manufacturing Sector...

It is not unreasonable to expect the 18-month rate of change in
Real Service Consumption to decline further...

Leading to a weakening in pricing power...

With no relief in sight from Wages...

The implication for investing: the economic pain will continue.

Covered ES 830

noreply@blogger.com (Will Rahal) — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 13:10:00 +0000

Will short again.

Shorted ES 842.50

noreply@blogger.com (Will Rahal) — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 12:45:00 +0000

This is 2 x Interval + previous close.

Price Momentum Extreme

noreply@blogger.com (Will Rahal) — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 23:43:00 +0000

The chart above illustrates ST Price Momentum(blue) vs. S&P(yellow).

Note that during bear markets, the extremes in the ST price
momentum are exacerbated, while during the bull market from
2003 to 2007, the extremes were relatively subdued.

The ST Price Momentum, moreover, is pointing to an overbought
condition that is not sustainable, even for a bear market rally.

Click picture to enlarge.

5-Day Momentum. S&P = yellow.
Price Momentum = blue. Intraday behavior = pink.

For Friday (4/3) the Up/Down Indicator is .40 suggesting
a negative bias for the Stock Market.

The S&P interval = 5.75 points.

Tomorrow I will sell strength.

I expect the market to pull back for a day or two.

The momentum is strong enough to warrant caution for bearish
bets and I would not be surprised if the rally is extended for
a couple of more weeks.

Trading for April 2, 2009

noreply@blogger.com (Will Rahal) — Wed, 01 Apr 2009 21:04:00 +0000

Click chart to enlarge.

5-Day Momentum Indicator, last 100 days. S&P Index = yellow.

IB = Intraday Behavior(pink). PM = Price Momentum(blue).

For Thursday (4/2), the Up/Down Indicator is .43 suggesting
a negative bias for the Stock Market.

Despite the bias, futures are indicating a strong day.

The S&P Interval = 7.5 points.

Trading for April 1, 2009

noreply@blogger.com (Will Rahal) — Wed, 01 Apr 2009 02:34:00 +0000

Click chart to enlarge.

5-Day Momentum Indicator, last 100 days. S&P Index = yellow.

IB = Intraday Behavior(pink). PM = Price Momentum(blue).

For Wednesday (4/1), the Up/Down Indicator is .48 suggesting
a negative bias for the Stock Market.

The S&P Interval = 7.5 points.

Trading for March 31, 2009

noreply@blogger.com (Will Rahal) — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 03:55:00 +0000

Click chart to enlarge.

5-Day Momentum Indicator, last 100 days. S&P Index = yellow.

IB = Intraday Behavior(pink). PM = Price Momentum(blue).

For Tuesday (3/31), the Up/Down Indicator is .57 suggesting
a positive bias for the Stock Market.

The S&P Interval = 8.75 points

Trading for March 30, 2009

noreply@blogger.com (Will Rahal) — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 13:46:00 +0000

Click chart to enlarge.

5-Day Momentum Indicator, last 100 days. S&P Index = yellow.

IB = Intraday Behavior(pink). PM = Price Momentum(blue).

For Monday (3/30), the Up/Down Indicator is .57 suggesting
a positive bias for the Stock Market.

The S&P Interval = 9.25 points.

Bull or Bear?

noreply@blogger.com (Will Rahal) — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 00:35:00 +0000

The chart above is that of the 25-day ADV/DEC Volume ratio
(blue line) vs. the S&P(yellow line).

The green line provides a simple way to demarcate a bull market
kickoff.

Note that in January, the A/D VOL came very close to the green
line.

Currently, it has some room to go.

Consequently, and considering the fundamentals, it is not hard to
entertain that this is a bear market rally.

Trading for March 27, 2009

noreply@blogger.com (Will Rahal) — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 04:57:00 +0000

Click chart to enlarge.

5-Day Momentum Indicator, last 100 days. S&P Index = yellow.

IB = Intraday Behavior(pink). PM = Price Momentum(blue).

For Friday (3/27), the Up/Down Indicator is .48 suggesting
a negative bias for the Stock Market.

The S&P Interval = 9.25 points

Trading for March 26, 2009

noreply@blogger.com (Will Rahal) — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 22:50:00 +0000

Core Capital Equipment expressed as percentage of Durable Goods
Orders, or CCE/DG, finally turned lower.

CCE is considered a proxy for Business Investment.

The rise of CCE/DG is not due to strong CCE Orders,
but mainly to the dismal behavior of Durable Goods Orders.

I expect this number to continue to deteriorate reflecting
relative weakness in the Business Sector.

The NASDQ boom of the 1990's, followed CCE/DG directionally.

So, in the final phase of the bear market, I would expect
the NASDQ to decline more violently.

Meanwhile ...

Click chart to enlarge.

5-Day Momentum Indicator, last 100 days. S&P Index = yellow.

IB = Intraday Behavior(pink). PM = Price Momentum(blue).

For Thursday (3/26), the Up/Down Indicator is .56 suggesting
a positive bias for the Stock Market.

Despite this positive bias, I think the market will head
lower tomorrow.

I was expecting the pullback to take the SP below 800.

Today, the drop to 791 proved ephemeral.

I still think, however, that the SP could approach the 780's

The S&P Interval = 7 points, 11.5 with increased volatility.

Trading for March 25, 2009

noreply@blogger.com (Will Rahal) — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 23:54:00 +0000

5-Day Momentum Indicator, last 100 days. S&P Index = yellow.

IB = Intraday Behavior(pink). PM = Price Momentum(blue).

For Wednesday (3/25), the Up/Down Indicator is .56 suggesting
a positive bias for the Stock Market.

The S&P Interval = 7 points.

Trading for March 24, 2009

noreply@blogger.com (Will Rahal) — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 23:58:00 +0000

Click picture to enlarge.

5-Day Momentum. S&P = yellow.
Price Momentum = blue. Intraday behavior = pink.

For Tuesday (3/24) the Up/Down Indicator is .46 suggesting
a negative bias for the Stock Market.

The S&P interval = 7 points.

I expect the market to pullback in the next couple of days.
Then the rally should continue.

Day Trade*: Buying ES 790 Selling ES 796

noreply@blogger.com (Will Rahal) — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 17:44:00 +0000

So far day's High minus one (large) Interval or 802.25 - 12.50= 789.75

Objective: 789.75 + 1/2 Interval or 796

Stops: I normally use half my objective. So If I am going for,
say, six points, my stop would be at 790 - 3 or 787.

*I am omitting the word "near" following "Selling" or "Buying".

I have been asked repeatedly to explain my day-trading style.
Please click on "Equidistant Levels Explained" on the right side
of the page.

Or click here.

Would Have Been Out Already but...

noreply@blogger.com (Will Rahal) — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 17:30:00 +0000

I never got in!
Missed it by a tick!

Day Trade: Selling ES 802.5

noreply@blogger.com (Will Rahal) — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 16:17:00 +0000

Objective 1 Interval or about 7.5 points

Trading for March 23, 2009

noreply@blogger.com (Will Rahal) — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 03:21:00 +0000

Click chart to enlarge.

5-Day Momentum Indicator, last 100 days. S&P Index = yellow.

IB = Intraday Behavior(pink). PM = Price Momentum(blue).

For Monday (3/23), the Up/Down Indicator is .53 suggesting
a positive bias for the Stock Market.

If the market is up significanly, however, I woud favor
shorting.

The S&P Interval = 7.5 points. Use 12.5 with increased volatility.

SOLD!

noreply@blogger.com (Will Rahal) — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 18:04:00 +0000

Will Try to Sell more QID near $54

noreply@blogger.com (Will Rahal) — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 17:20:00 +0000