The booth design is finalized, the flight reservations are booked, and NRG Systems staff members are readying themselves for the AWEA WINDPOWER 2013 conference. This year, the biggest wind energy event in the U.S. is taking place in Chicago on May 5th-8th. Despite ongoing industry challenges, it promises to be an exciting and informative event.

At the NRG Systems booth (2032), we’ll be sharing news about our signature wind resource assessment and turbine O&M products. We’ll also have live demos of several featured products:

• TurbinePhD™
  A vibration-based health monitoring system, TurbinePhD™ provides complete diagnostic coverage of a wind turbine’s drivetrain. Learn how condition monitoring can cut your operations and maintenance costs.

• Grand Symphonie™
  Grand Symphonie™ is a revolutionary resource assessment system that applies advanced technology to reduce overall measurement uncertainty and total cost of ownership.

• Wind Iris
  The nacelle-mounted Wind Iris Lidar measures horizontal wind speed and direction in front of the wind turbine. Assess power curves without a met mast and detect underperformance to maximize your energy production.

We’re also hosting gatherings at the NRG Systems booth. On Monday, May 6th, 6pm-8pm, attend our Booth Reception to learn about our newest offerings while enjoying drinks and hors d’oeuvres. We’ll have more than 10 products on display, and staff experts will be available to answer your questions.

Then, stop by our booth on Wednesday, May 8th, 11am-12pm for Leadership Power Hour with Jan Blomstrann, President and CEO of NRG Systems. Over the past 20 years, Jan has helped shape the wind industry as it moved from a fringe sector to a mainstream source of power. She was the first woman to be named Wind Woman of the Year by the Women of Wind Energy, and she serves on the board of directors for AWEA, the American Wind Wildlife Institute, and the Institute for Sustainable Communities.

If you’d rather set up a specific time to meet, contact us at sales@nrgsystems.com. We look forward to seeing you in Chicago!

Early detection in wind turbine operations and maintenance matters for three core reasons.

Gearbox failure costs

Turbine maintenance costs comprise 35 to 45% of operating expenses post-warranty. Replacement of a single gearbox on a 100-turbine wind farm can eat up a considerable portion of your annual maintenance budget.

Escalating effects

Failure is a process, not a single event. The optimum window of detection is after the fault starts to propagate but before serious wear and secondary damage occurs. For example, as a bearing fault starts to grow, more and more wear-debris is shed. Carried by the lubrication, debris particles travel through the gearbox where they can find their way into other gears and bearings initiating further damage. Avoiding this secondary damage is the key to saving money.

 

Secondary damage compounds costs

Here’s an example of the differential cost of repair when damage in the high-speed shaft is detected early on versus after secondary damage. The total savings of $216,000 includes the avoided cost of a crane and complete gearbox rebuild, plus lost revenue from turbine downtime.

Figure 3: Cost savings of predictive maintenance in a gear box.

————————–

Brogan Morton is the Product Manager for Turbine Health Monitoring at NRG Systems.

Additional resources:

The Value of Early Detection, WindTech International, January 2013

Techniques for Predicting Future Gearbox Health, Windcurrents, 2011

White papers and technical papers from NRG Systems

As the election of 2012 fades into the past, issues that will face the Vermont Legislature (and other state legislatures) in 2013 are coming into focus. A critical and contentious one is wind power and the choices we make to deploy this technology as we move towards a diversified, low-cost and clean energy future — or not.

I have worked in the wind energy industry for over three decades. I became and have remained involved because of my long-held concerns about energy security and environmental stewardship. I am convinced that wind is part of the solution. I have seen the boom and bust brought on by erratic federal policies, such as the current looming expiration of the Product Tax Credit (PTC) set to expire at the end of December.

The PTC is a tax incentive that catalyzes $15 billion in annual investment in manufacturing facilities, jobs, wind energy services and local economic activity. It only pays off when a project is generating energy and income.

Within Vermont and elsewhere, there is an active, sometimes acrimonious debate on wind power, particularly with regard to siting. Some facts and counter-facts are being marshaled in these debates — many having nothing to do with genuine and legitimate siting concerns. Now, opponents of utility-scale projects on ridgelines in Vermont are calling for an end to the PTC. In doing so, they stand with right-wing groups like the Heartland Institute and the American Legislative Exchange Council — both funded by the Koch Brothers — who are working against a more reliable, low-cost, and clean energy future in defense of the fossil fuel industry where they built their fortunes.

The extension of the PTC is a tax policy issue like all the other subsidies, tax and otherwise, which the coal, oil, natural gas and nuclear industries receive. The PTC levels the playing field and gives wind a chance to grow to the point where it can contribute a clean, indigenous and low-cost source of electricity. When opponents in Vermont paint wind as part of the problem, they play into the hands of climate deniers, energy ideologues and fossil-fuel interests.

This election season wind was on the ballot in many states. Around the country an overwhelming number of gubernatorial and congressional candidates who voiced support for wind — particularly those from Midwest states that have seen the economic benefits — won their races. Why? The supporters of wind energy finally spoke up.

It’s time for the quiet supporters of wind energy in Vermont, and elsewhere — the 80-plus percent of us — to let our elected officials know where we stand. It’s time to let them know we’re opposed to a wind moratorium and in support of implementing the Comprehensive Energy Plan. Given what’s at stake, we can no longer afford to be silent.

———

A version of this article originally appeared in the October 10, 2012 Burlington Free Press (Vermont).

Most professionals in the wind industry agree that 2013 is going to be a tough year.

Agreed. But there’s a lot more to talk about than doom and gloom.

With an eye on the future, many manufacturers are looking to improve quality, reduce costs, and deliver more value. Hence my interview with Wyatt Drake-Buhr, lead engineer for Grand Symphonie, a new system for resource assessment.

Q: How did Engineering approach the design of Grand Symphonie?

A: We approached it as an entire system – not any one feature in isolation. It was essential that every component work well together and that the entire system be easy to use. Customers appreciate a simple user experience—it’s what they have come to expect from NRG Systems. Grand Symphonie [aka GS] builds on that philosophy. At the same time, we approached GS as a clean-slate, building the system anew from the ground up. This freed us up to make the best system we could outside the constraints of what already existed.

Q: Why was simplicity so important?

A: Elegant simplicity has always been core to engineering at NRG Systems. When we introduced the first Symphonie data logger back in 2002, customers liked that it was foolproof. Symphonie reduced system configuration errors and made the data more reliable. We continued that with Grand Symphonie. There’s a lot of sophisticated technology embedded in the system. The challenge on the engineering side was to improve the functionality using advanced technology while keeping the system easy to use.

Q: What can a customer do now with GS that they couldn’t do with a traditional data logging system?

A: Where do I begin?

Here’s one example: GS automatically detects and reports information about the configuration of your tower and the sensors on that tower. Take the new sensor verticality measurement, which tells you if the sensor is upright or tilted. Customers didn’t have this information before GS. Now they do. They know more about the quality of the data coming off that sensor and they can decide what to do about it. With GS, customers have greater visibility on what’s happening at their site and they have the information to support good decision-making.

Q: Can you quantify or describe the savings of switching to GS from a conventional data logging system?

A: At this point we can describe some of the savings—more will be made apparent over the next 12 months. We know installation is a huge opportunity for cost reduction in not having to manually wire each sensor to the data logger and not having to program your logger. One installer told us they could drop their installation time by 25-50%.

We also know handling of data is more efficient. We’ve completely eliminated email from the process, and therefore the need to manage servers, file attachments, and iPack configuration. We also eliminated the need to process raw data and manually put it into a data management tool. WindPortal enables the flow of data from the sensors all the way to an analysis tool without a single human ever touching a file. Before GS, this process took a lot of time and was fraught with error.

Q: What are you hearing from beta customers about GS?

A: Customers have been excited about its ease of use in the field, about secure data storage and management, and about accuracy of the sensors.

Q: What does the future GS platform look like?

A: We intend to fill it out with many useful features – to have a broader set of GS sensors to measure the condition of potential sites. We can add new capabilities through firmware upgrades, and users can access those new capabilities with the click of a button in WindPortal. This means we can innovate faster and respond quickly to customer needs. Those are a few things I am able to share right now – the rest is still in R&D.

Q: As an engineer, what have you learned through the development of Grand Symphonie?

It’s been rewarding to be involved in every aspect of the program from concept to reality. I’ve learned about the power of simplicity. Engineers love adding new buttons or configurable features, but because our design philosophy focused on simplicity, we worked hard to remove steps and opportunities for human error wherever possible, which is not easy. There’s a ton of engineering behind each feature. The artistry was having the system work together while remaining easy to use.

 

Additional resources:

WindPortal demo video

Grand Symphonie Test Program [.pdf]

 

I recently spoke at a business school class at The University of Vermont on the topic of employee relations. The students sat dutifully listening, but I’m not sure they really understood how critical a role “employee relations” plays in the workplace. I framed my presentation around the importance of “people, people, people” and an employer’s quest to find the answer to the $25,000,000 question: What matters to my employees and how can I retain them in my organization?

Solving this conundrum includes so many areas of human behavior and attitude:  engagement, communication, interaction, conduct, culture, career development, recognition, compensation along with many other areas. Getting to the end point successfully with high job satisfaction, happiness and retention is no easy task.

At NRG Systems, we recently held a company-wide training for our entire workforce. Oh no (you are probably thinking), not one of those mandatory trainings to see if everyone is getting along! On the contrary, this particular training engaged every member of our workplace in one way or another – we specifically learned about the importance and the useful place in a work setting for intentions, trust, happiness, needs, disclosure, interactions, and communication.  In fact, it was brilliant medicine to feed a wounded soul. Let me elaborate a bit.

The human toll of industry uncertainty

This has been a rough year for our company—and the renewable energy industry in general. Like many other companies in the wind energy industry, we had to make the difficult decision to reduce our workforce earlier this year. After 30 years in business, this was the first time our company had to take such action.

Certainly, the range of emotions has played out over the past few months:  anger, denial, sadness, fear. Having built, and been recognized for being, a great place to work, our tight-knit family suddenly was greatly impacted.

Despite the turmoil and stress, I will say that we have survived and are in the process of rebuilding a new and dynamic culture and workplace, which brings me back to feelings.

The recent training I mentioned was conducted by Rick Foster, an international research expert and acclaimed author on happiness and health. The timing for this training was perfect, and the number of gems that resulted could fill a two-inch binder. Here are some to consider:

1. Set your intentions instead of goals.  Goals are S.M.A.R.T. (specific, measurable, attainable, realistic and timely). Intentions are the “why of the what,” or a statement of how we choose to behave in a situation. For example, an intention sounds like this: “I intend to be open and honest today when talking with employees, and ensure good listening skills.” A goal sounds like this: “I plan to meet with Joe and Sally today.”

2. Affect levels of trust by applying the Trust Formula. Consider the number of daily interactions that take place in your workplace, evaluate how flexible those interactions are, and whether they exhibit full disclosure. Assume then that those three important steps are evaluated under a veil of good intentions, which take place over time. This is how trust can be positively impacted.

3. Appreciate one another.  In the Society for Human Resource Management’s recent job satisfaction survey, they cite the importance of employee recognition. Rick Foster describes an appreciative act as a shot of oxytocin throughout your body. Appreciating your work colleagues simply makes everyone feel better.

One of the things I like about working at NRG Systems is that we allow ourselves time and space to focus on, and ask questions about, matters like employee relations. Our people are one of our priorities, and I feel confident in saying that we intend to listen and engage, focus on trust, appreciate each other, and rebuild our vibrant culture.

Are you intentional about employee relations at your company?

—–

Anna Grady is the manager of human resources at NRG Systems.

 

 

A moratorium on wind energy in Vermont? And just when it seemed we were making progress. It seems NIMBYism is alive and well around the world.

While it’s true that every source of energy has real and identifiable impacts, it’s also clear that there is no silver bullet when it comes to solving our energy challenges. Every source must be on the table. To simply say no to utility-scale wind is shortsighted and loses sight of the fact that wind energy is part of the solution, not part of the problem.

Vermont and Renewable Energy

Vermont is late to the game on wind energy. Other parts of the U.S., and certainly the globe, have been developing wind and realizing its potential for quite some time now. Several years ago, I asked Larry Flowers, then head of Clinton’s Windpowering America program, to come to Vermont to help advance wind energy and he politely declined; he would take his work to states that had made a commitment to renewables. Vermont was not one of them.

Fast forward to 2012: Vermont finally sticks its toe in the water on wind development, we meet some local opposition, and now we may back-peddle on our commitment to renewables? I’m disappointed.

National collaboration promoting wind, protecting wildlife

I chair the board of the American Wind Wildlife Institute, a national collaboration of  U.S. wind energy companies and leading environmental organizations. Now four years old, this organization is working to proactively and scientifically address the relatively modest, but important, environmental impacts of wind energy. It’s not easy work, as these groups have at times opposed each other. Both sides, however, recognize the mutual gain of promoting responsible wind development while protecting wildlife and wildlife habitat as a means of addressing climate change. We certainly don’t always agree, but we persevere.

Another Option

Isn’t that the way to do it? Isn’t a calm, collaborative approach to our state’s energy future better than these polarized discussions we’re having over wind energy? Wind is cost competitive and non-polluting, doesn’t use or affect water, and the fuel is free and endless. The people of Vermont deserve to have wind as an option for our energy future.

A version of this editorial first appeared in the November 4, 2012 issue of the Burlington (VT) Free Press.

Additional reading:

GOP candidates Brock Scott back wind-project moratorium

Pittsford wants wind moratorium

Regional planners in Northeast Kingdom want wind moratorium

If you’ve read my past posts, you know I love numbers and finance. If you share those same passions, read on.

Despite recent gum flapping that renewable energy receives special treatment from Uncle Sam in terms of tax credits, grants, loan guarantees, and research and development funds, the numbers tell a different story. Here are just a few:

1932: The year coal industries began to deduct a portion of their income to help cover capital investments (a.k.a. the percentage depletion allowance), increasing the ROI for extractors and generators.

1957: The year the Price-Anderson Act went into effect, allowing nuclear power generators to shift the risk of potential accidents to the federal government, dramatically reducing the investment risk.

65,000,000,000: The amount of money the nuclear industry has received in federal research and development money since the 1950s.

446,960,000,000: The amount of federal subsidies given to oil and gas since 1918.

5,930,000,000: The amount of federal subsidies given for renewable energy from 1994-2009.

1977: The year U.S. Department of Energy successfully demonstrated commercial success of massive hydraulic fracturing in shale gas deposits.

1.0: The percent of the federal budget that went towards subsidies for nuclear power in the start-up years of the industry.

0.01: The percent of the federal budget that currently goes towards renewable energy subsidies.

 I could go on, but my patience for this topic is wearing thin. One final number for you:

37,000: The number of direct wind energy jobs (excluding those in companies providing secondary services) that could be lost if Congress fails to extend the Production Tax Credit for wind—a number that speaks for itself.

 

Sources:

DLB Investors, What Would Jefferson Do? The Historical Role of Federal Subsidies in Shaping America’s Energy Future, 2011 [.pdf]

Stephen Lacey, Climate Progress, Free Market Hypocrisy: Why Do We Hold Renewables to Different Standards than Fossil Fuels and Nuclear, 2012

Navigant Energy, The Impact of the Production Tax Credit on the U.S. Wind Market, 2011 [.pdf]

Some recent headlines on the PTC (Production Tax Credit) for wind energy have been misleading. Either they confuse a tax credit with a cash hand-out, imply that if not for the PTC wind energy would shrivel up and die, or imply that wind energy receives government support above and beyond what other energy sectors receive. These couldn’t be further from the truth.

1. The PTC is a tax credit that enables developers to attract private capital in order to construct a wind farm. Developers don’t receive the tax credit (of $0.02 per kWh) until the wind farm has been constructed, is operational, and is turning a profit. It’s a performance-based incentive that drives up to $20 billion annually in private investment.
2. The multiplier effects of the PTC are enormous. After developers receive financing, they are able to secure lease-rights, negotiate power purchase agreements, conduct resource assessment campaigns, hire analysts to determine their estimated annual energy production, procure the wind turbines, construct the wind farms, and then operate them on their own or hand off to an independent owner/operator. In this development cycle, hundreds of companies provide goods and services to the developer – from permitting specialists, to turbine manufacturers like Vestas or GE, to construction firms and sub-suppliers, to local hotels and restaurants… the list goes on and on. The Production Tax Credit is the catalyst for this economic activity, which is why it has had solid bi-partisan support in Congress for years.
3. The PTC has successfully lowered the cost of wind power. [.pdf]  The cost of wind energy has declined 90% since the 1980s, making it competitive with every other source on the market next to natural gas.* According to a 2011 study from the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, wind energy costs 6-9 cents per kilowatt-hour, even without the PTC. It’s also important to remember that wind power offers a fixed price over the life of a wind farm, which is 20 to 30 years. If a utility locks in a rate of $0.06 kWh today, they will enjoy that same low rate in 2032. It provides diversity to their portfolio and a hedge against future volatility caused by other sources of energy like natural gas and coal. These fuel sources have to be purchased on an on-going basis to produce electricity, whereas the wind is free.

These are just some of the nuts-and-bolts reasons the PTC works. Why it’s caught up in a politically-charged ideological debate is beyond me.

* Natural gas prices are at a historic low because of government subsidies through tax credits, loans, grants, and lack of regulation of hydraulic fracturing.

Sources: Understanding Trends in Wind Turbine Prices over the Past Decade, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 2011 [.pdf]

Yesterday was Sunday, a perfect late summer day in Vermont. My wife and I went kayaking on Little Hosmer Pond in Craftsbury, a two kilometer long north south impoundment built in the 19^th century to supply water power to a mill. As we pushed out into the pond, we could see the Lowell Mountain ridge about 15 kilometers to the north.

Stretched out along the ridge, silhouetted in the summer sky with towering cumulus clouds and lit by the afternoon sun were seven completed turbines and another eleven under construction. They are big, no question about that, but in my view they are beautiful (and there are lots of questions about that).

Several years ago the founders of NRG Systems commissioned a print from a Vermont artist named Sabra Field. The print shows a row of turbines on a ridge in the alpenglow as the sun sets. It is beautiful and at the time was a visionary image. This wind farm in Lowell is the actualization of that vision, although a summer thunderstorm obscured the ridge before we could see the sunset.

NRG Systems is not a turbine manufacturer or a wind farm developer (unlike our namesake NRG Energy). We build equipment and systems to measure the wind. Our products – towers, sensors and data loggers – were used on Lowell Mountain to evaluate and characterize the wind resource for the developer Green Mountain Power. But NRG Systems is, and I am, passionate about the potential of wind power to contribute to a long-term sustainable energy future for our home state, Vermont, for our country and for the world.

While I recognize that the installation of eighteen industrial wind turbines on Lowell Mountain in the middle of a relatively pristine (relatively because it was aggressively logged over the years to provide timber for that mill on Little Hosmer Pond and others) will change the ridge’s character, I see those shining white turbines on the high horizon as an uplifting and tremendously encouraging symbol of a better future. I hope and expect that they will stand as an emblem of Vermont’s commitment to a sustainable future.

 

 Related:

Wind Power in my backyard: Enter the IMBY? [Wicked Outdoorsy]

Wind Energy in Vermont’s Working Landscape [UVM Geography Department and Vermont Studies]

Bliss Windpark in upstate New York: Photo Attribution: Windtech at en.wikipedia

 

 

With new development slowing, companies are focusing even more on the performance of their existing assets. Adding Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM) to wind turbine gearboxes is one way OEM’s and O&M’s are optimizing performance. In this post, I share our latest thinking on the questions we hear most often about CBM.

Q: What are the technological trends in Condition-Based Maintenance?

This depends upon the industry. Utility-scale wind and aerospace are quite different. The concept of a prognostic – the time remaining before maintenance is required – is a growing area of interest. The PHM Society and IEEE Reliability Society now have conferences completely devoted to prognostics with professionals from civil engineering, health care, electronics, and many more industries.

Aerospace has been a big driver of prognostics with the Department of Defense funding a lot of the research. The challenge now is to bring research out of the classroom and into the business world. One of the problems is that there isn’t a quality standard for CBM – no yardstick to measure performance. Like all things, you could be driving a Yugo or a BMW. It’s important to know what you’re buying.

The Society for Automotive Engineers is trying to develop a standard, as are other industry groups. In the wind industry, NREL’s Gearbox Reliability Consortium is looking at best-practices in CBM, as is AWEA’s O&M Working Group.

Q: How is CBM in wind energy different than other industries?

The tools developed for CBM were developed for turbo machinery: mechanical systems that run at a constant RPM. But wind turbines don’t work that way. On turbines, the throttle is in the hand of Mother Nature – its RPM is constantly changing. That’s the thing that makes CBM for wind energy quite different.

Q: How fast is CBM advancing?

Way too slow on the standards and policy side. Right now we’re shaping the business case for CBM, which isn’t easy to do. Use of a CBM system doesn’t make a wind turbine more reliable in and of itself. It enables better maintenance logistics and it requires a behavior change on the part of the operator. It’s similar to the life insurance business model: you buy yourself peace of mind in case something catastrophic happens. When it does, you’re glad you purchased the insurance.

No one has spent more money on CBM than the U.S. Army. By applying this technology and changing their behavior, The Army has reported a reduction in unscheduled maintenance on their UH-60 aircraft by 38%.

The ROI will also improve as the cost comes down. The CBM hardware – accelerometers, cables, harnesses, etc. – are precision or custom components. As more systems are deployed, some of these may be commoditized, which will bring down the cost.

Q: What are you hearing from O&M professionals about their experience with CBM?

CBM is still maturing and gaining acceptance in the O&M segment. Most of the installed base of wind energy is coming off warranty, so operators that are inheriting assets don’t truly understand the full maintenance costs of their wind farms. Some will be surprised. We know there are CBM systems out there but there’s a lack of transparency about how well these systems work. The two most common problems I’m aware of are missed detection (damage that wasn’t picked-up) or false alarm (e.g requiring maintenance when none was needed).

Q: What does the future of CBM look like?

I expect we’ll see more integrated systems (e.g. SCADA systems integrated with vibration and oil based condition monitoring capability). This will allow better load modeling on the rotating components on the turbine, which will reduce scatter in the component trend data. In the future, designers could use this data to model torque, power and vibration to reduce loads and improve reliability. The feedback loop of CBM data to operators and equipment manufacturers is key to improving the performance of wind energy overall.

Additional Resource:

NRG Systems Turbine PhD predictive health monitoring

I recently came across this infographic depicting the total amount of federal energy incentives doled out to various energy sources over the past fifty years.

Absent a national energy plan (because we don’t have one), this is what decades of status-quo has given us:

1. An energy portfolio heavily tilted in favor of polluting, finite energy sources – many of which must be imported from politically unstable nations.
2. Mature industries that have grown dependent upon federal subsidies (i.e. taxpayer dollars), and offer power at artificially low prices.
3. An under-developed renewable energy sector that continues to limp along.

Imagine if wind and solar had received similar incentives to the oil and gas industries. I wonder how many jobs, manufacturing facilities, and communities we would support today?

You tell me, what else is wrong with this picture?

 

Additional resources: http://www.misi-net.com/publications.html

“Pain at the pump” is a common expression in the US news media. Filling up your vehicle is a chore and watching the meter rise is a helpless feeling. When I started working at NRG Systems, gasoline was under $1 a gallon. Those days aren’t coming back.

Now imagine if instead of filling up the 15-gallon tank of your car, you were filling up a much larger tank — one that millions of people draw from every day. This is what utilities around the world do on a regular basis. Electric grids are powered by heavy oil or diesel in a surprising number of places worldwide: from Hawaii and islands in the South Pacific and the Caribbean, to Central Asia, to remote villages in the Arctic region. Much of Russia lacks a central grid and relies on independent grids powered by diesel. If you live on an island without a grid connection to the mainland, there is a good chance your utility uses petroleum for power generation.

Sub-Saharan Africa receives a share of its electric power generation from petroleum sources. Compounding the difficulty of rising fuel prices are weak grid infrastructure, complicated delivery logistics, unreliability, regular blackouts, and high levels of unmet demand for power. In this region, simply providing any electric power can deliver the basics in terms of education, health and sanitation for lighting, cooking,  and refrigeration.

Fortunately Sub-Saharan Africa has widely distributed renewable energy resources, especially wind and solar. At today’s level of power needs and with fuel prices testing new highs, wind energy is more than just a pricing hedge. Wind is the lower cost power source.

… and what ever happened to common sense?!

Two weeks ago I returned from the wind industry’s big show, WINDPOWER 2012 in Atlanta. I’ll talk more about my experience in a moment, but on my way there I read the current issue of my old High School magazine. This nostalgic exercise – accentuated by a feature on school alumna, the Duchess of Cambridge (Kate Middleton to her school chums) – got me to thinking about Queen Elizabeth’s Diamond Jubilee and how life has changed over the last 60 years.

The magazine also featured an article that quoted some old boys lamenting recent changes. Most significantly, the school is revoking its Primary Rule: “If what you are thinking of doing defies common sense, do not do it.” Apparently, in this modern world, common sense is no longer relevant. Even in jolly old England the plea to use common sense can lead to misunderstanding and litigation.

Now back to Atlanta… At WINDPOWER this lack of common sense was in full display. The PTC has bipartisan support in both Houses of Congress, the President is behind it, Karl Rove supports it, the Treasury gains revenue from it, and 75,000 jobs have been created by it (not to mention the ancillary jobs in travel, transportation, finance, food, etc.)

So when asked why the PTC is not being quickly renewed, no-one has the answer. It defies common sense, one person told me. Sixty years ago this might have been reason enough to act, but not in the complicated, self-centered world we have created, which is particularly manifest in political short sightedness.

The show was, not surprisingly, downbeat. There were a lot of products and services for sale, and far fewer buyers than a year ago. The good news is that the wind industry is getting more and more efficient. Wind is now cost competitive with all energy sources, except for natural gas, and we will be competitive with gas once the market moves to a more sustainable pricing level. The efficiencies at the front end of the development cycle (e.g., turbine and logistical costs) are now moving into the operating area (e.g., improved capacity factors), and will quickly move in to the performance and maintenance area (e.g., power performance and predictive heath monitoring).

For all of us in the industry, the long term looks excellent. The challenge is to get through the hiatus in the US, caused by the daft lack of action on the PTC. This has to pass at some point if Congress wants to prevent the industry from fleeing overseas.

It’s just common sense, isn’t it?

A funny thing shows up when you look up the origins of the words cooperation and competition in the dictionary. The word cooperate comes from Latin and means ‘work together’. The origin of the word compete, which is also Latin, is ‘seek together’.

Although their origins are similar, their meanings today are very different. In fact, the way we live in the world today positions these two concepts on opposite sides of a playing field. Two parties cannot both be in competition with each other and be able to cooperate with each other.

If the original meaning of compete seemed more harmonious, how did the word evolve to become something today that denotes overcoming, overtaking, and overpowering someone else—the antithesis of harmony? More importantly perhaps, where does the desire – or maybe it’s a need – to compete come from?

Competition in the Business World

In business, we become competitive when someone has something we want (and think we don’t have) or when we perceive a threat to what we do have whether that be market position, customer base, product mix or even profitability. So we use the legal system to try to protect our intellectual property, and we put restrictions on what we can and cannot do or say. In relationships with our perceived competitors, there’s a curious dance that happens that’s a combination of charm, grace, and cageyness to see who will jump (or fall) first.

There is separation in competition.  The U.S.has been the top dog in the world long before the end of the Cold War, and there’s a price to pay for maintaining that position. If you compete and lose, you disappear. We only pay attention to the winners, not to the losers.

In the renewable energy industry, China has appeared as a competitive threat. As a result, we have seen tariffs and trade restrictions put into place in an effort to protect companies and market share on both sides.

Cooperation: The key to our industry’s future

But what if we were to see ourselves more as equals? How would we learn to work together as partners heading in the same direction for the same purpose? How could we build upon each others’ strengths to work toward a common goal? What are the opportunities we lose out on when we overlook the possibility of cooperation?

In my opinion, the future of industry in the world will be more about cooperation and less about competition. Through cooperation, we can start to be real with ourselves and each other, and perhaps design a new dance of harmony that could have far greater impact than the divisive effects of competition.

Additional Reading:

Solar Industry Unites To Avoid a Major Solar Trade War

Competition vs. Cooperation

This year, we’re sharing the facts on wind power. Here’s what others are saying and doing today:

• Globalwindday.org catalogs the 400+ events around the world
• RECHARGE debunks the myths on wind energy
• GWEC announces UN Support for Global Wind Day
• Cleantechnica asks why is the Current Tactic: Call the Majority of Americans Extremists
• Sustainable Energy Review marks all the ways you can celebrate

And on and on…

Related articles

• Wind energy comes into its own in India(panchabuta.com)

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• The Wind Cries Koch Brothers(maddowblog.msnbc.msn.com)

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• Americans for Prosperity to protest pro-wind rally of ‘extremist’ kite-flying kids(grist.org)

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Going in to WINDPOWER 2012 I wasn’t sure what to expect.

Would it be doom and gloom? Blood in the streets (a.k.a. layoffs upon layoffs)? How would the industry balance its messages to Congress versus investors, employees, suppliers and other important industry stakeholders?

AWEA did a nice job threading the needle. In committee rooms, on the show floor, and in conference sessions, some important themes emerged. No doubt we face a tough year ahead, but there are some promising trends:  

1. The wind industry is taking the longer view, both in terms of policy and fiscal growth. As Jan Blittersdorf said on the Industry Leaders press panel: “Wind industry manufacturers are a force and we’re here to stay…We need to get through a 3- to 5-year gap during which natural gas prices and growth in energy demand will remain low, but the world will continue to need wind power.”

Every CEO on the panel seemed to agree that in order to be successful, they need to have a reasonable planning horizon – and that the boom and bust caused by inconsistent federal tax policy is no longer workable. Wind energy needs the same stability every other energy source enjoys – whether it’s the PTC or something else.

2.   To manage the downturn in U.S. activity, manufacturers are exporting (similar to what happened in the 1980s). The challenge manufacturers face is putting their assets to work in growing markets: nearly 500 facilities and 30,000 direct jobs. Companies like Vestas and Gamesa are gearing up to serve Brazil, Canada, and Mexico.

During the International Spotlight panel on exporting, John Norton, COO of NRG Systems, talked about the company’s exporting capability that enables it to serve 150 countries worldwide. “We developed this capability close to thirty years ago when the wind industry moved from California to Europe. If we can do it, others can as well.”

3. To become even more competitive, the industry is accelerating the pace of innovation. Companies throughout the supply chain are taking baby steps and giant leaps to lower the cost of wind power. For example, Suzlon now offers a turbine for low-wind sites, opening up development opportunities once deemed unprofitable; while TPI Composites is making lighter, stronger blades to maximize energy production.

In the NRG Systems booth, a steady stream of attendees came through to learn about our new condition-monitoring system for turbines. Applying advanced technology from aerospace, Turbine PhD detects early-stage wear in components months before they escalate into costly faults or failures. The system provides readily-understandable health indicators about each component and accurate estimates of their remaining useful life, which helps operators plan maintenance events and reduce costs [.pdf].

The total maintenance costs (unscheduled and scheduled) for a typical wind farm are between 35% and 45% of the total operating budget. Unscheduled maintenance costs are typically half of these costs, but by implementing a good health monitoring system you can also reduce the amount of scheduled maintenance as well. Predictive maintenance helps increase profits by reducing the total maintenance costs and increasing revenue by optimizing turbine availability.

In his opening speech Tom Carnahan, incoming Chair of the AWEA Board of Directors said, “Don’t let a good crisis go to waste.”

Stalemate in Congress is creating this crisis, but rather than fold, the industry is poised to fight – to focus on what it can control and to chart its own future.

 

 

How hard can it be to get a bus line to go up and down 40+ miles of country road twice a day? Hard enough! Making it happen on Route 116 required many Vermonters to go out on a limb, expand their understanding of their personal and institutional possibilities, and stake out new territory politically and financially.

On April 23, 2012, two commuter buses made their first official runs on Route 116, carrying riders from four towns to and from Burlington, Vermont’s biggest city (population 42,417). I told you in an earlier post about our partnership with the Town of Hinesburg, Vermont, where we are headquartered, the Hinesburg Rides community program, and two innovative transportation agencies. We have worked together over the past five years to launch first-time commuter bus service for a major corridor route in our rural state.

One bus is operated by the Chittenden County Transportation Authority, the other by Addison County Transit Resources, and both agencies literally had to go beyond their boundaries for the project. With buses originating from both the north and south, the 116 Commuter delivers on-time arrivals for riders heading in opposite directions – country-dwellers traveling to jobs in the city, and city-dwellers coming to work at businesses, including NRG Systems, in the country.

“People say rural public transit doesn’t work,” says NRG Systems staffer Anna Grady. “But we’re joining many others to prove it’s doable.”

Owning our part of the problem, and the solution

Many businesses consider public transportation to be the responsibility of government, not the private sector. But just as they have for health, wellness and retirement benefits, companies have recognized the business, competitive, and community investment advantages of supporting reliable, affordable community transportation. Given the shrinking federal support for public transportation in the United States, a startling underinvestment compared to countries that aggressively fund this core infrastructure, it’s clear this job won’t get done unless the private sector gets involved.

When a bus or other form of public transit runs close to employers’ doors, people can get to their jobs. The bus is a reliable ride to work for “riders by choice,” who take the bus for the ease of it, the cost savings, and the pro-environment practice. It also supports “riders by necessity,” who depend on public transit because they can’t afford gas and car ownership expenses or are unable to drive.

“Business can help make the impossible possible,” Anna continues. “Businesses are part of the transportation problem and we need to be part of the solution. Building public transit takes time, persistent effort, and money. But we’ve got to solve this.”

Voices from the bus

The inaugural day of the new service, the weather wasn’t ideal – 39 degrees and raining. Still, it was a beautiful drive through small Vermont towns, past agricultural fields, cows and horses, and apple orchards, with mist hanging over the mountains, into downtown Burlington. We greeted each rider – “Welcome to the 116 Commuter!” – and handed out commemorative water bottles. I got to talk with riders throughout the first week, including NRG Systems passengers, about what the new bus means to them. Here are some of their words:

“I love the freedom the bus gives me to take my eyes off the road, sit back, and relax. Sometimes I work, sometimes I catch up on podcasts, sometimes I sleep—a few minutes to myself at the beginning and end of very full days.”

“The bus gives me time to do whatever I want. I can stare out the window and see things I don’t see when I’m driving. It’s free time – time freed up – that I don’t often have.”

“If we are going to make any dent with global climate issues, public transit is key. We have to change our behavior.”

“I get a nice little walk in the morning heading to the bus, three-quarters of a mile. I read my way to work, and this afternoon, I’m going to read my way home.”

“The main advantage of riding a bus – somebody else is driving so I don’t have to. I can head off for work still a bit sleepy or not ready for the day, and have the hour to prepare.”

“Riding the bus is a no-brainer for me. I’ll save $40 a week in gas!”

“Now I can subscribe to a newspaper or a magazine!”

Public transit with a personal touch: Meet Bonnie Swan

Veteran driver Bonnie Swan drives the route from the south – she’s been at the wheel of community buses and the yellow school variety since 1987. Bonnie is the kind of driver who wants to know all of her passengers, their faces, their names, where they’re going, and how she could help make their commuting go smoother. When we met, she remembered seeing our son Ben waiting for the school bus that she and her husband drove – a dozen years ago.

Bonnie loves her work, and is especially fond of the new route. “You get to know the riders; we talk with each other. ‘Hey, good morning! I missed you yesterday! So, am I picking you up tonight?’ I absolutely love people and driving. I don’t feel like I have a job – it’s the best kind of work.”

The new route has its challenges, especially with the transition from country roads to city streets. “You come out of no traffic in Addison County to all kinds of traffic in Burlington. I have to really be on my toes up here!” says Bonnie.

The variety of the route, its landscape beauty, and the consistency of the friendly riders add up to a terrific driver and commuter experience.

Bonnie’s feeling about the 116 Commuter service? “I think it’s just going to get better and better!”

Get on the bus or get one of your own!

So far, so good, and even better than planned. We had been warned to expect months or even years to pass before the public would fully utilize the new bus, but again conventional wisdom proved wrong. The need is so great, and public involvement so broad, that after only one week of operation, ridership has been high enough to assign larger buses to the route.

If you’re lucky enough to live along the Route 116 corridor, join us! Please consider making room in your workweek for a trip or three or five on the new bus. But if you live elsewhere, and think public transit would make your life easier, more economical and more earth-friendly, get together with neighbors and co-workers and make it happen. Our example shows that it can be done.

 

Last month, AWEA held their Wind Finance & Investment Seminar in New York City. The purpose of the event was to give the money people an opportunity to explain their thoughts on investing in the wind industry. It was a very dry affair with lots of suits, but the substance of the conversation was good. These people determine whether our industry folds or flourishes.

Here are a few of my takeaways:

Wind in General

The wind industry is no longer niche. It is regarded by investors as a mature industry, and, if you want to play with the other big boys and girls, you need to adjust to their rules. First,  you have to provide realistic forecasts on the performance of your wind farm, and second, you are expected to meet your projection.

These rules are particularly sensitive to investors as they are still smarting, and suffering financially, from the “2004-2008 bubble” (a term used several times during the conference). They are extremely cautious about being burned again by overstated revenue projections.

On the flip side, being a mature industry has its advantages. Maturity is attractive (a relief to all of my contemporaries), as experience brings predictability in setting performance expectations. Stable cash flow is also a plus, but it requires a sold off-take agreement; and (another theme echoed throughout the conference) these agreements have evolved to the point where utilities are restricted in their ability to curtail wind farms.

The active investors are generally asset investors. More risk-averse lenders are on the side-lines, which reflects their lack of confidence in the projections for wind farms. On the other hand investors with strong balance sheets are looking for strategic buys further along in the development cycle.

Operations and Maintenance

Optimizing O&M and improving performance is one way for developers and wind farm owners to reduce their costs. Financiers had assumed lower costs of turbine operation than they are seeing post warranty. Consequently, the tools they are looking for in order to achieve this are:

• Performance monitoring equipment
• Condition monitoring equipment
• Preventative-based monitoring equipment (i.e., using the condition monitoring data to predict breakdowns)
• Better measurement of atmospheric conditions in order to identify stability.

Investors require operators to provide reserves to cover their projected O&M costs as well as estimated major maintenance costs.  To the extent that tools like Turbine PhD and remote sensing can identify maintenance issues proactively, a significant ROI can be realized through lowering these reserves.

Solar Resource Assessment

Now I know this was a wind conference, but SRA was mentioned frequently because commercial solar development is on an aggressive growth track. The industry’s growth parallels that of wind a few years ago (that bubble perhaps) and financiers do not want to get burned again with unrealistic forecasts. Consequently they are requiring onsite assessment at potential solar farms.

The Production Tax Credit

During the “Wind on Capitol Hill” session (great name!), the panelists tried to explain how things work in Washington, but the only thing that seemed clear was that DC is in its own bubble. They all seemed to agree that the PTC will not be renewed until the lame duck session at the end of the year when its approval is likely, but by no means certain.

The Future of Energy

The energy industry overall is looking at low growth to match the slow overall recovery of the US economy. The formula is:

Low Growth + Efficiency improvements = Problems for the energy supply chain

Coal based energy suppliers will suffer the most, but the continued low cost of natural gas will be a problem for all other energy producers. On “unnatural gas,” analysts predict the price cannot stay low for long, as the prices cannot sustain the entire natural gas supply chain.

Low energy demand will be problematic for wind in the short term, but as the economy recovers, along with growth in demand, so will the fortunes of the wind industry. Technological advancements, such as low-wind-speed turbines, support the broader proliferation of wind, along with performance improvements, which improve the economics of wind. These factors, among others, will place the industry in an excellent position relative to the competition, and, who knows, maybe a refreshed concern for our planet will give us a boost.

Sources:

Brogan Morton, “Smarter management of turbine assets: How to get the most from your condition monitoring systems,” March 2012 (.pdf)

Eric Bechhoefer, “Predicting Gearbox Health,” Wind Systems Magazine, March 2012

 

 

 

When the lawyers and bankers get involved, you know you’re playing in a whole new ballgame.

As Dave Simkins pointed out in a recent post, utility-scale solar is following a similar path as utility-scale wind. Costs of solar PV are coming down, technologies are improving, risk-averse lenders are investing more resources, and developers are getting more sophisticated about driving uncertainty out of their projects.

Last week, I had the opportunity to sit down with John Goglia, Senior Technical Support Engineer, to talk about trends in utility-scale solar and what they mean for the industry.

Can you walk me through the utility-scale solar development process?

It isn’t much different from the wind energy development process. First, a developer needs to acquire some land – or rights to develop that land – and determine if it’s suitable for a solar farm. This includes permitting, access to transmission, finding a buyer for the power, and understanding the solar resource. Historically, most developers did early stage prospecting by looking at solar irradiation satellite data available online. But today, more and more are doing onsite measurement.

What does an onsite solar measurement campaign look like?

Again, it’s very similar to wind resource assessment. Most developers measure for 6-12 months and then correlate to long-term satellite data to improve the accuracy of their estimates. The basic process is to develop a measurement plan, verify the accuracy of your sensors, document the site and its characteristics, collect the data, and work with an analyst to come up with a resource projection. Most developers use one solar resource assessment (SRA) system per solar farm, though if the farm spans many kilometers, they might use more. There is no hard and fast rule for this; it’s landscape specific, and based on their budget and risk tolerance.

Why is onsite measurement better than using just satellite data?

I like to compare satellite data to digital photos from ten years ago. When you enlarged those photos to 8×10, the quality was terrible – they were all pixelated. Using satellite data alone is like trying to find a 10-acre property using pixelated, fuzzy photos. Satellite imagery can provide fairly good landscape-level data, but it can’t focus on a particular solar farm. Using onsite measurement brings the pixels into focus. Once calibrated to on-ground measurements, satellite data becomes even more useful.

It allows a developer to add more value to their project. In finance speak it reduces the “supply risk” – the risk associated with the variability of the resource itself. Satellite data is based on models, not direct measurements, so there is error associated with it. It’s ideal to use onsite measurement in conjunction with the models.

How does the approach to solar resource assessment differ between utility-scale PV and thermal concentrating solar power (CSP)?

For utility-scale PV farms, it’s important to understand the Global Horizontal Irradiation (GHI): light that comes directly from the sun and light that is scattered throughout the atmosphere. CSP projects use mirrors to focus the sunlight on water, which creates steam, which runs a turbine. It’s a more complicated form of solar energy production because the mirrors must be curved and constructed just so. For CSP, it’s important to understand the Direct Normal Irradiation (DNI) – the light that only comes directly from the sun.

There are different types of pyranometers available to serve each market: one type is static, the other incorporates a mechanical device to track the sun. Measurements for CSP plants are very site specific.

What types of sensors are required for onsite measurement and what do they tell us?

Pyranometers – two on each system – measure the Global Horizontal Irradiation. They are attached to a small tower with booms that can be fixed at a 90 degree angle or tilted to place the pyranometers at the expected plane of array. Some developers refer to “plane of array measurements” as tilted GHI, which is preferable at latitudes further from the equator. The global standard for pyranometers, ISO 9060, provides guidance on sensor classification.

Solar PV operates most efficiently in temperate climates – excessive heat can damage the panels. That’s why wind vanes, anemometers, temperature sensors, and rain gauges are also included in an SRA system. Wind and water are cooling and cleaning agents for solar PV, helping to optimize production of the solar farm.

Where do you see solar resource assessment in five years?

For megawatt-scale development it’s going to be the standard, not just an optional practice. The financial community is going to ask for onsite measurement to reduce project risk, plain and simple. The more ground-based measurements developers collect now, the better. Not only can these measurements be used to improve the accuracy of satellite data, they can also improve the accuracy of resource estimates now, thereby reducing risk and cost for everyone involved.

Additional resources

It has become a sign of spring for me to travel to Europe for the Annual EWEA conference and GWEC board meeting. This year we met in Copenhagen, Denmark.

Each year these European events are scheduled two to three months before North America’s largest industry gathering, AWEA’s WINDPOWER 2012. I’ve found over the years that the industry gestalt formed in Europe can offer an insightful glimpse of the future to come in the U.S. — or alternatively, it can seem as if these two wind industry markets are on two different planets rather than continents. Here are my takeaways from Europe this year.

Takeaways from Europe 2012

• US market will likely see a drop of nearly 60% through 2013 unless something dramatic happens and a PTC is passed.
• US market will take 3 years to recover, due to the low cost of energy and slow economic growth
• Industry is struggling with low margins worldwide
• Will be tough for the manufacturers to bridge the gap
• Should only invest money that is earned…sounds familiar
• Japan will be a place to watch post Fukushima
• From pro nuke to pro renewable
• No new nuke plants to be built
• The new Feed-in Tariff will be the key first step to building a good market
• Need to invest across the whole value chain
• Europe’s leaders have taken a longer view with long-term visions
• A level of uncertainty is now hitting the once stable European markets
• Big risk is the uncertain economies that are not stable or predictable
• Need to protect the investments we have made in the various markets by taking action now
• Commit to a timeline to make wind competitive with fossil fuels
• Political issues are making this industry very tough
• An area looks good – move in and build a plant – politics cause a slowdown and factories stop – can’t continue this scenario as it makes the cost of wind too high
• Local content issues keep costs up
• This is a dichotomy as local markets are demanding low energy prices versus high costs of adding local content
• Many of these are factors that really are no different from years ago, other than now the industry in much larger and the stakes are much higher.
• What the industry needs to do is:
• Reduce costs across the board
• Stay innovative but keep costs down of innovation projects by staying lean
• Shift market dollars from the traditional markets to the regional areas of growth
• Need to add value at the individual wind farm level
• Be smart with local content rules
• Standardize everything we can

North America

Next month will find us in Atlanta for WINDPOWER 2012. Major U.S. turbine manufacturers have already announced layoffs and cancelled projects if the PTC is not extended beyond 2012. With little apparent hope for congressional action, it’s looking as if this will be a year in which at EWEA we saw an accurate glimpse of the future for the wind industry in the U.S.

Then again, prepared optimist that I am, I have to believe that if as an industry we heed what we heard in Europe and take concerted action, the ‘boom and bust’ wind energy cycle can be averted in the U.S. this year. I will let you know.

Related articles

• Siemens says wind industry must cut costs rapidly (eco-business.com)
• European Wind Energy Association sees 500,000 jobs to Europe by 2020 (jobmarketmonitor.com)
• European Wind a “Recession-Busting” Industry (triplepundit.com)