In what was already a high-stakes offseason for the Red Wings, the intensity was cranked to 11 after Elliotte Friedman’s report that Dylan Larkin has requested a trade, later confirmed by Max Bultman. There’s no miscommunication here with multiple sources of that caliber getting the same news.

I’m usually a believer that the team netting the best player in a trade wins the trade, meaning it’s going to be difficult for Detroit to come out ahead here. Recent high returns for players like Jack Eichel, Matthew Tkachuk and Quinn Hughes have, so far, looked like massive wins for the teams who acquired them (as early as next week, Eichel and Tkachuk could each have two Cups in the last four years). It’s a damning vote of no confidence for a team to have its hometown star captain wanting out, especially with how well things were going prior to the Olympic Break.

Larkin isn’t quite that caliber of player, but he isn’t far off. He comes with more contract certainty than any of those — Tkachuk was a sign-and-trade, Eichel later extended in Vegas and Hughes will be next summer’s top free agent if he so chooses. Larkin is turning 30 this summer and is under contract for five more seasons at $8.7 million. As the cap goes up, that deal looks better and better. With the open market looking as weak as it does this summer, imagine what he’d command if he were a free agent. His offensive numbers were a tick under his stretch of three near point-per-game seasons from 2021-24, but I’m not sure his stock has been higher after his showings at the 4 Nations and Olympics as a player who continually outperformed his role on the depth chart and earned more ice time in key situations.

Why now?

It’s radio silence from both the Red Wings and the Larkin camp at the moment, which is curious because I feel the first side to speak has an opportunity to seize the narrative.

It’s never been easy for Larkin in Detroit, breaking in at the very tail end of a legendary playoff streak and watching franchise icons slowly move into retirement. As someone who worked in the PR department for the team during this stretch, I immensely respect and appreciate the leadership role he took on from a young age, answering to the media whenever he was asked. It can take a mental toll to have to answer for so much losing, especially when many of those teams were deeply uncompetitive, and Larkin’s own performance was generally strong. But the media doesn’t want to hear from Joe Third Liner who won’t be here the following season, they always wanted Larkin.

From his point, I see it. Turning 30 and hasn’t seen the postseason since he was a teenager, the East, especially the Atlantic, looks like an absolute dogfight for the next several seasons, and he’s tasted winning with the U.S. Men’s Olympic Team (with many teammates who orchestrated their own trades). It’s hard to see the light at the end of the tunnel for those like Detroit, with how easy it is for teams to keep their best players right now.

At the same time, Larkin isn’t without blame. The annual March collapses have coincided with Larkin cooling off and/or battling injury. While he was generally integral to the strong starts that preceded those rough finishes, managing an 82-game schedule is a challenge every player has to learn. His 5-on-5 scoring down the stretch this year was of particular concern; over his final 16 games following the Olympic Break — all crucial for Detroit — he scored just once at 5-on-5. He did add five power play goals, one shorthanded goal and one 3-on-3 overtime goal in that span, but it underscored an offense that couldn’t get much going at even strength.

But it’s a heck of a message to send from a guy wearing the same history-steeped ‘C’ that Sid Abel, Gordie Howe, Ted Lindsay, Alex Delvecchio, Steve Yzerman, Nicklas Lidstrom and Henrik Zetterberg all wore. That’s why, despite Friedman’s inclusion in his initial report that Yzerman won’t be bullied into action, I think this will get done this month. You simply can’t be back in that dressing room after telling that group, especially some of the young guys who individually had good years, that you don’t believe in them anymore.

While the Finals are ongoing, I think there are at least 14 teams disappointed they didn’t get longer runs who will at least look into this, not to mention a handful of non-playoff teams who will see Larkin as their way to reach the next level. If you think you’re capable of winning a Cup in the next five years, you are making a phone call about Larkin.

The silver lining…ish

At a time when people are looking for this rebuild’s end date, Detroit will be shopping an asset more valuable than it has at any point previously. He is the best player available this summer by some margin. In many ways, Larkin’s camp chose ideal timing on leaking this news, if there is such a thing. Teams know exactly where they are picking in the upcoming draft, and have not yet spent all available cap space during free agency. This is the time to make blockbuster moves.

And many mentioned in our comments yesterday, besides Larkin at 29-going-on-30 and DeBrincat at 28, Detroit’s most valuable assets are age 19-25: Seider, Raymond, Edvinsson, Kasper, Sandin Pellikka, Finnie, Danielson, Brandsegg-Nygard, Bear, Postava… potentially, Amadeus Lombardi, Carter Mazur, William Wallinder, Shai Buium, who knows what happens with Cossa… and further down the road, Max Plante, Eddie Genborg, Anton Johansson, Trey Augustine and others.

Even the rookies in that group may need another year or two to fully reach their NHL potential, with a few guys another couple of years away, at least. While it doesn’t mean Detroit can’t or shouldn’t also be trying to make the playoffs so the older members of the core get that experience, those are valuable seasons of a dwindling prime for Larkin to burn if this drought goes any longer. This provides Detroit the opportunity to add as many as 3-4 quality young assets that better fit that age range.

I’m not talking straight futures, either, a player like Larkin should easily return one or two younger, established NHL players, and some extra prospects or picks to balance out any value gaps — though depending on how much they like this class, they could land a replacement 2026 first-round pick. This is a reset that corrects a stretch of bad drafts — especially missed first-round picks — between Larkin’s draft (2014) and Seider’s (2019). It also effectively ends Holland’s impact on this roster, with Larkin and Rasmussen being the only players who joined the organization before 2019.

It’s a franchise-defining move and the most significant move for Yzerman’s managerial legacy in Detroit. That said, Larkin holds a full no-trade clause, not a limited one. Limited no-trade clauses mean you supply a list of X number of teams you’d be willing to move to. He doesn’t have to do that; he can wait and give a thumbs-up or thumbs-down once a deal is verbally agreed to. For a clean exit and to expedite the process, his camp would be wise to provide a list of top destinations.

Beyond that, this takes the position of weakness for Detroit and makes it… much, much weaker. With Marco Kasper and Nate Danielson not making much progress this season, the Red Wings are woefully depleted at center, and the market has next to nothing to offer. It seems critical for a young center to be at the heart of this return, though there are several enticing winger scenarios available that will have to be considered.

That’s where we’re at. Now where will Larkin go, what might Detroit get in return? I’m not a fan of mock trades, but I’ll take my best swing at which teams I think are most realistic and who needs to be at the center of the return. Note that each category is presented alphabetically and weighs both potential returns and how appealing it might be for a player who controls his destination.

The contenders

Anaheim – While still on the rise, the Ducks were one of the NHL’s surprise teams and bounced the heavily-favored Oilers. I’d imagine Detroit inquires about wingers like Bennett Sennecke or Cutter Gauthier, but more realistically, Mason McTavish is a 23-year-old center whose growth stunted this season. I could see a package involving him and one of Anaheim’s young defensemen, like Oleg Zellweger or Pavel Mintyukov.

Boston – In a weird spot, given their low expectations this year, but they seem to prefer to reload to take advantage of David Pastrnak’s prime. James Hagens or Dean Letourneau would be a prize, but Fraser Minten is a productive young center a larger package could be built around.

Columbus – It’s hard to see him accepting a trade to another perennial playoff bubble team, but the Blue Jackets were hot down the stretch, and it’d give Larkin a chance to play with his friend Zach Werenski (source: every single hockey broadcast) and stay relatively close to family. Prime young pieces who could be had include Kent Johnson, Denton Mateychuk, Luca Del Bel Belluz and a buy-low situation on Michigan State’s Cayden Lindstrom.

Florida – Doesn’t seem like you can ever leave them out of a rumor about a star player. Anton Lundell is billed as their future Barkov but at 24, do they make the upgrade to take advantage of their current contention window? They also hold the ninth overall pick.

Los Angeles – Holland is likely in his last job and wants to win now. They already made the Panarin splash, but lack established centers to play with him or fellow top-flight wingers Adrian Kempe and Kevin Fiala. Quinton Byfield seemed destined for stardom until a step back this year, would they dangle him for some win-now help?

Minnesota – Bill Guerin was the NHL’s boldest GM this year but has a roster that is weak down the middle with Quinn Hughes’ free agency looming next summer. Matt Boldy may be too ambitious, but Danila Yurov and Charlie Stramel could be the framework of a multi-center return.

New Jersey – The most ridiculous rumor I saw last month was a Larkin-for-Hischier swap. But if Hischier would extend here (UFA next summer), he is an automatic replacement as a #1 center who is three years younger, and Larkin unites with two Hugheses and is in the New York market (albeit Newark).

NY Rangers – Not a playoff team, but their rebuilds are always accelerated by trades over development. If Larkin is a bright-lights guy, perhaps they’d free up Alexis Lafreniere or Gabe Perreault in addition to a short-term patch with Vincent Trocheck.

Toronto – The broadcast always shows Nana Larkin in the crowd, as Dylan’s dad is Canadian. Hard to see him wanting to go to this pressure-cooker unless it is for family reasons, but it’d be quite a shake-up for a new GM in John Chayka inheriting an absolute mess. I don’t think they move #1 overall, but a return would have to feature Easton Cowan and Tinus Luc Koblar, who just won bronze for Norway alongside Michael Brandsegg-Nygard at the World Championship, and much more beyond that.

The maybes

Buffalo – While I included Boston, Florida and Toronto above, it’s hard to see this happening in division unless Larkin forces his way there. I don’t think Buffalo is a destination yet unless this is a purely hockey-related decision (and again, somewhat close to Detroit). I’d have Konsta Helenius circled as a must for any return after a very impressive postseason debut for him.

Carolina – Their future plans will depend on the next week, and their entire forward group is already locked up for next season. If they’re swept, Larkin provides more grit than Sebastian Aho, who has had a quiet playoff. Logan Stankoven has not struggled, but would be the younger piece to zero in on if the Hurricanes want to upgrade down the middle.

Colorado – Here simply because you can’t rule them out, but it seems like they need to shed salary and not add. Very little in the way of future assets are available, but do you say no if they decide that Martin Necas is who they want to move on from?

Chicago – The Blackhawks have moved youth aggressively into their lineup over the last two years and have three enticing young centers behind an already-young Connor Bedard: Frank Nazar, Anton Frondell and Oliver Moore, and a litany of other young assets to balance a trade. It also reunites Larkin with Tyler Bertuzzi. Probably not the win-now situation he probably wants, going back to being a veteran answering for rookie mistakes (under Jeff Blashill no less), but again, close to home and could be timing the Blackhawks’ rise at the right moment.

Dallas – Always in a win-now situation and with a likely leadership hole to fill, with Jamie Benn potentially moving on. Mavrik Bourque is a young center who has been buried on the depth chart; I also wonder if the Red Wings would add a couple of pieces if it meant Jason Robertson comes to his hometown team. Not a center, but potentially the best player the Red Wings could add this summer.

NY Islanders – At least one NHL captain waived his no-trade clause to play with Matthew Schaefer (Brayden Schenn), could there be a second? Not sure the Islanders are yet a destination, but Bo Horvat or Mathew Barzal would be a reasonable 1C solution in a package with a recent first-rounder like Victor Eklund, Cole Eiserman or Danny Nelson.

Philadelphia – They looked finished at the trade deadline, but caught fire after that. Was that real enough for Larkin to put himself through this mess? It’s a similar situation to Detroit, weak down the middle and decent on the wing… more than decent if Porter Martone is the real deal. Matvei Michkov is too much of a gamble to be the centerpiece of this unless the Flyers want to massively overpay beyond him (Jett Luchanko, Jack Nesbitt and Jack Berglund are their top center prospects).

San Jose – I wouldn’t think they’d be in this category, but Mike Grier was noticeably unenthused when the Sharks won the #2 pick at the draft lottery and rumor has it he’d consider moving it. Is Larkin second-overall worthy, giving Detroit a shot at Ivar Stenberg or Caleb Malhotra? Or does the abundance of forwards available make Michael Misa available? This is probably the “highest potential” Detroit could return but again… Celebrini is special, but is this a Cup team in the next five years, or are we chasing a warm-weather destination?

Tampa Bay – No state tax, annual contender and yada yada, but low on desirable young assets aside from Memorial Cup MVP Sam O’Reilly. I don’t quite see how this works, but I would understand why they are potentially on Larkin’s list.

Vegas – Always in on available stars and in need of centers, and their whole deal is that they’re going to ruthlessly improve the team, even if that comes within days of a potential Cup victory. They have virtually nothing for prospects besides the problematic Trevor Connelly, but he and a soon-to-be expensive Pavel Dorofeyev could add scoring for Detroit.

Doubtful

Edmonton – There’s a college connection in Zach Hyman, but they’ve depleted their prospect reserves chasing Cups. A three-headed McDavid-Draisaitl-Larkin monster would be something to behold, but is it worth being stuck in Edmonton if McDavid leaves after this contract?

Montreal – It’s a tough market, and I’m not sure how desperate they are to upgrade after getting as far as they did with a roster that young. Awkwardness in the division, too, but they have the assets to make this happen if they want to, starting with another Michigan center in Michael Hage.

Pittsburgh – They salvaged what looked like a sinking ship, but where are they once Crosby, Malkin and Letang move on? Ben Kindel and Will Horcoff are their top young assets, along with Zam Plante, Red Wings prospect Max’s brother.

St. Louis – I’m still not sure why they’d trade Robert Thomas, but if they wanted four premium assets at the deadline, what does a Larkin swap do for them? I don’t think the Blues are that desirable if you’re Larkin, but there are a few other ways this trade could work (Buchnevich, Kyrou, Dvorsky, Stenberg are also intriguing).

Seattle – I actually think this one makes a ton of sense, other than I don’t know why Larkin would choose to go there. Shane Wright needs a change of scenery, Matty Beniers is a Larkin-lite who hasn’t quite broken out yet, and other youngsters like Berkly Catton and Jake O’Brien make sense for Detroit.

Utah – Like Seattle, they have pieces to make this work — Tij Iginla, Caleb Desnoyers, Danil But, etc. But it’d take a hell of a sales pitch from owner Ryan Smith to make them a top destination for players like this.

No way

Calgary – Total mess right now and not many premier assets to offer.

Ottawa – Brady Tkachuk is likely the next American to demand a trade, but there’s too much bad blood here for this to make any sense at all.

Nashville – Always a sought-after destination for players, but already loaded with aging veterans and not finding much success. Potentially packaging one of them with some of their young pieces is a way to help the Red Wings now and in the future, but it wouldn’t provide any clarity on what direction the Preds are going.

Vancouver – I have seen social chatter floating Pettersson and third overall but… I don’t know why Larkin would waive for this situation, nor why new GM Ryan Johnson would dispatch a top draft pick for a player towards the end of his prime.

Washington – Maybe they get wild if Ovechkin comes back, but it’s not a pretty picture once he’s gone.

Winnipeg – It’s, uh, not an enticing destination, but if he really, really thinks he can only win with Connor Hellebuyck in net, this is where he can find him.

So that exercise was overkill, but I’ll be curious how my destination tiers shake out once the rumor mill starts churning on this one. Without accounting for draft picks, some of those asks seem high, some way too low, but let’s get the community’s take on what sounds best, what you can’t live with, and what I might be missing.

It’s been quiet around here… but we’re in for a ride this month.

”Larkin’s involvement in the trade market is massive. He has a full no-trade clause both this season and next, so his control over the situation does not change July 1. He’s a top-line centre in a league desperate for centres, so there’s going to be a ton of interest. His play at the 4 Nations and Olympics was stellar. That’s going to excite potential trade partners.”

Friedman continues…

“Because no one will talk, we can only guess at the rationale, but there appear to be two critical factors: Detroit’s inability to make the playoffs, and a somewhat frosty relationship between the captain and the team’s top hockey executive. This is also another sign of how the league is changing. Players are getting bolder with these requests — especially in the aftermath of Matthew Tkachuk’s and Quinn Hughes’ power moves into different situations.“

Extremely vague reporting, but consider the source. I felt like the writing was on the wall after last season when Larkin voiced his frustration with no movement at the trade deadline. A key piece of information we’re missing is when he requested the trade. No doubt there will be a market for Larkin, but that no-trade clause is significant.

Steve Yzerman has quite a mess in front of him, a mess that he is largely to blame for, whether you like it or not. However, it’s not like there isn’t an opportunity here for Yzerman to restore faith from Red Wings fans. Larkin’s trade request likely just blew up the offseason plans for several NHL clubs. The return for a player like Larkin should not be modest. So, to me, this sounds like a prime chance to hit the reset button in a meaningful way.

According to the official announcement from the PWHL, the new team will begin play for the 2026-27 season. Home games will be hosted by Little Caesars Arena. Additionally, Detroit will host the 2026 PWHL Awards Ceremony, and the 2026 PWHL Draft. The Draft will take place at Fox Theatre.

Here’s more from the official announcement:

“Bringing professional women’s hockey to Hockeytown is an undeniable next step for the PWHL and the storied hockey market. Detroit has welcomed the PWHL from the very beginning, starting with hosting the league’s first-ever neutral-site game at Little Caesars Arena during the league’s inaugural season in 2024, drawing 13,736 fans. Since then, local support has only grown, with Detroit hosting four PWHL games over three seasons — the most of any neutral-site city. Among those games were crowds of 14,288 fans, setting a then-U.S. arena attendance record for women’s hockey on March 16, 2025, and a Little Caesars Arena women’s hockey attendance high of 15,938 at the city’s last Takeover Tour™ game on March 28, 2026, cementing Detroit fans’ demand for a PWHL team to call their own.

As part of today’s team announcement, the league revealed PWHL Detroit’s primary colors — black and silver — complemented by white as a secondary color and red as an accent. The palette is distinct from any other team in the league, with the primary colors intended to evoke Detroit’s innovative and industrial spirit, matched with the resilient identity of Metro Detroiters. Meanwhile, the red accent is a nod to the city’s celebrated sports history, in particular, the Red Wings’ and Hockeytown’s hockey stewardship in the United States for more than 100 years. The permanent brand identity, including the team’s name and logo, will be announced at a later date. Visit DetroitPWHL.com to learn more; PWHL Detroit merchandise is available now at thePWHL.com/shop for both U.S. and Canadian fans.”

This is a great day for women’s hockey and the city of Detroit. It was clear after recent PWHL events in the Motor City that there is a great interest in professional women’s hockey. We’ll have to wait and see what the broadcasting schedule will look like… Plus logistics and all that, since there will now be three professional teams at LCA. This is going to move quick! There is a lot to get done before the PWHL season starts in the fall… Including the team mascot.

Petition for the Detroit Vipers anyone? 😉

Let’s get started. And if there are intriguing matters not covered here, drop them in the comments. Maybe we can roll out a mailbag-type article or two while we await the busy season for player movement and team shakeups. Here’s just a little bit of what’s on my mind:

Ottawa and Boston’s Rewards

There’s no sugarcoating what a disaster the end of the season was for the Red Wings. For all the work teams did battling for the Wild Card positions and all the daily shuffling going on, the winners of that race are… not enjoying the spoils of victory.

Ottawa became the first team eliminated in a sweep at the hands of Carolina, tying the Red Wings in postseason victories for the season (0). If you’re able to distract yourself from Detroit’s own foibles, Senators Cope is really at another level right now, mixed between wanting to trade everyone (sound familiar?) and assuring the world that this was the closest first-round series of all-time. Most games were decided by a goal (and empty netters), but to me, it’s not a series if your opponent doesn’t have to adjust to your game plan. Carolina did Carolina things, allowed only five goals in four games, withstood tantrums from Brady Tkachuk, Ridly Greig and others, and moved on with ease.

Meanwhile, the Bruins are still alive but were run out of their own building by the Buffalo Sabres on Sunday, who roared out to a 4-0 lead (and boy, some of those goals came from brutal turnovers) en route to a 6-1 victory and 3-1 series lead. Boston did win a game, but that loss, coupled with a Game 1 collapse that saw them snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, and the goodwill the Bruins gained by being one of the East’s surprise teams is evaporating.

So my unanswerable question is this: would you really feel better about Detroit’s season if this were the result? An extra week of cardio and sent home quickly by Carolina, or being booed out of your own building by your home crowd, with your goalie screaming at his own bench when he was finally mercy-pulled?

There’s a lot of gray in potential answers, and different matchups would produce different results and all that — plus an inexperienced Buffalo still has to close Boston out. So while I’m irked that Detroit now owns the longest postseason drought in the NHL, I’m not sure their fate would be all that different with how they played from the Olympic break on. I think there’s been too much focus on the bar for success just being “making playoffs.” They need to become the Carolinas and the Tampa Bays that are in year after year, and just getting in this season only to be immediately humbled would not move the needle much for me.

Summer’s marching orders

If you haven’t watched Steve Yzerman and Todd McLellan’s end-of-season press conference, it’s worth a listen. I felt a different tone this year, and I think it painted a better picture of what the team will be trying to do this summer. Typically, these things are full of generalities — “we need to improve in all areas,” “we need better players,” etc., there were two immediate focuses on 1) improving 5-on-5 scoring and 2) becoming harder to play against in the bottom six.

While no GM is going to lay out specifics for how they plan to approach the offseason, it’s pretty clear to me when looking at this summer’s free agent crop that 5-on-5 scoring can only be improved through trade. It’s a mix of old players who are probably returning to their own teams or retiring, more middle-six types that Detroit already has (including some they’ve already had), and a soon-to-be extremely rich (and already playing for his hometown team) Alex Tuch.

The Red Wings are asset-rich right now and have a lot of cap flexibility. I know there’s a healthy contingent of fans who wanted to see heads roll, but that doesn’t change the logical path forward for whoever’s at the helm. As long as the cap continues to rise drastically year-over-year, it’s going to water down the free agent market. Fans are tired of hearing it, but the best way to improve the roster is through player development, so you 1) can put better players on your roster and 2) have players enticing enough that other teams want to trade for them.

It’s a slow process, and not every player pans out. Detroit gets blasted for its patient approach, but I think that’s old news. Remember that three 20-year-olds made this roster on opening night. Unless your name is Macklin Celebrini or Matthew Schaefer, you’re generally not turning a franchise’s fortunes around at that age. Each of the young Red Wings hit a wall at different points, but they should all be primed for a step forward next season.

Remaking the bottom six will require some creativity, as many are still under contract. But the Red Wings can look into a buyout, or moving a contracted player with a mid-round pick as a sweetener if needed. Plus, any top-six adds would push players like Emmitt Finnie and Andrew Copp down to the bottom six, where they’ll get more favorable matchups. As we see some Stanley Cup hopefuls exit the playoffs, we’ll have a better idea of other teams looking for a shakeup, as they’ll run into the same issue of free agency not being enough to solve their problems.

Take the leap

No Red Wing should be sitting at home right now, satisfied with everything they accomplished this season, though DeBrincat and Seider are the closest to deserving. McLellan had an interesting remark about Raymond, while confirming the long-standing rumors that he was not 100%. He said there is a “gulf” between being banged up and being hurt. He indicated they’re going to focus on getting Raymond to shoot more, as 100 more shots at his shooting percentage would make him a 40-goal scorer.

I’ve mentioned this before, but let’s look at a quick comparison of a few players over their first 4-5 years:

Player A had 303 points in his first 320 games (0.94 points-per-game)
Player B had 234 points in his first 285 games (0.82 points-per-game)
Player C had 320 points in his first 400 games (0.80 points-per-game)

Player A is David Pastrnak, Player B is Nikita Kucherov, and Player C is Lucas Raymond. Raymond’s analytics were right up there at superstar level for much of the season before the production started leveling off as Detroit’s top line struggled to score at 5-on-5 down the stretch. But his production is not unlike what the two best wingers in the NHL were doing at the same age.

Some additional context: Pastrnak was 18 as a rookie and his fifth season was his first above a point-per-game, with 81 in 66 games in 2018-19. He followed that up with a 95-point season at age 23, but then leveled out with two point-per-game years before rattling off four-straight 100-point seasons.

Kucherov didn’t debut until he was 20, posted his first season above a point-per-game at 23 and then broke out at 24, with the first of what’s now six 100+ point years, only slowed during three years in which he battled injuries.

This was Raymond’s fifth year and his age-23 season, and he came just short of a point-per-game last year (80 in 82) and this year (76 in 80). Certainly, if the coaches can get him to shoot more, he’s going to command the puck more. If he’s commanding the puck more, another level of production is attainable.

It’s a lofty comparison. One additional detail is that Pastrnak and Kucherov walked onto teams that were already in a contention window. Pastrnak’s Bruins had prime Bergeron, Marchand, Krug, Krejci and Rask, not to mention the ageless Chara. The Lightning made the Stanley Cup Final in Kucherov’s second year, led by Stamkos, Johnson, Palat, Callahan, Killorn and Hedman — Vasilevskiy wasn’t even the starter, backing up Ben Bishop (they also had Evgeni Nabokov, a fact you cannot convince me is true).

Raymond… did not enjoy the comforts of a similar supporting cast. He’s arguably not even had a suitable winger to play across from since Tyler Bertuzzi left. I mean no disrespect to Emmitt Finnie, because he’s well on his way to becoming one of my favorites, but this was a 20-year-old seventh-round pick who was competing with the likes of James van Riemsdyk and Elmer Soderblom for this role during training camp. It’s been an open question for far too long.

A second-line center upgrade would be huge, but I think the biggest splash Detroit can make is finding a proven option for first-line left wing — the caveat being DeBrincat is more than capable here, but has a good thing going on with Kane. I know some folks are over the Kane project, but a team lacking 5-on-5 scoring probably can’t afford to ditch one of its only players who scores at 5-on-5.

Even with the rotating cast at left wing, Larkin and Raymond have long stretches where they’re as productive as anyone in the league. But it’s time to make that easier, give them a guy who can hang on to the puck a more, make plays, attract defensive attention, do more than crash the crease and grind on the forecheck. An established 30-goal scorer in that slot not only adds needed offense to the roster, but it could unlock the no-doubt superstar Detroit has been waiting on. But also… shoot the puck, Lucas.

It’s Griffins Time

Last note: the Grand Rapids Griffins finally begin the postseason this week, as they’d earned a bye through the convoluted “first round” the AHL currently uses. They begin their best-of-five series against the Manitoba Moose in Winnipeg this weekend, electing to play the first two games on the road (May 2-3) so they can have Games 3-5 at home (May 6, 8 and 9). The Griffins had the luxury of auditioning some new prospects who joined the team after their college or European seasons ended, but I think their lineup will be most similar to their second-to-last game of the season (a casual 8-0 win in Milwaukee).

Leonard – Dries – Shine
Mazur – Lombardi – Brandsegg-Nygard
Tralmaks – Stachowiak – Rychlovsky
Genborg – Seger – Watson
(Extras: Becher, Angle, Kiiskinen, James, Draper, Doucet)

Save for Mazur’s injury and Shine’s time in Detroit, that top six has been together for most of the season, so the all-prospect second line is the most interesting for Red Wings purposes. Not as much name recognition on the third line, but it’s actually been the team’s most productive since they acquired Wojciech Stachowiak from Tampa Bay (15 points in 10 games for him). Plenty of options for that 4th line, but it’d be a nice reward for Genborg — the youngest on the roster — to stay in the lineup. He’s made an immediate impact on a very deep roster since coming over from Sweden. Unfortunately, Yzerman’s presser comments make it sound like Danielson will only be available if the Griffins make a deep run.

Gustafsson – Tuomisto
Lagesson – Sandin-Pellikka
Wallinder – Johansson
(Extras: Buium, Kannok Leipert)

Not sure if this is how they’ll go here, as it seems crazy for Buium to be out of the lineup. But Anton Johansson has looked like a find, and has been immediately productive — plus he evens out the left-right shot balance. This has been the strength of the team all season, with so many NHL-experienced options alongside some prospects already established in the league, and that’s even after shipping out Justin Holl (make your jokes, but he was excellent at this level) and Ian Mitchell in trades.

Cossa
Postava
(Extra: Augustine)

This will be the most interesting decision for the team. Goaltending was a non-issue all season — they even won the AHL equivalent of the Jennings Trophy, setting a franchise record for fewest goals against and tying for most shutouts. It was mostly Cossa’s net, with Postava missing a chunk of the year due to injury, and Carter Gylander playing well in time up from the ECHL. But Cossa was shakier down the stretch, and Postava started playing his best hockey and looking like a real option for the Red Wings in the near future. If they ride the hot hand, they should start Postava. I think the investment in Cossa will win out and he’ll ultimately get the nod — but in a best-of-five, there’s no time to wait for someone to shake a slump. Certainly a storyline for next year’s Red Wings team with the backup goaltending job open.

Those are the main ideas kicking around my head as we approach two weeks without Red Wings hockey. Where am I right, where am I wrong? What else can we explore here as we begin the march towards 2026-27?

There’s not much stage-setting to be done here, we all know the deal. This game is so revolting that sometime in the last 10 days the TNT execs pulled the plug on airing it, and are picking up Buffalo vs. Dallas instead. In a different world, this could be a win-and-in scenario for the Red Wings, but they read the tea leaves early and bailed.

Beyond that, they’re passing up the opportunity to spend an entire broadcast talking about the Florida Panthers, something they love doing. It’s a real Men in Black II situation. Florida Panthers: old and busted. Buffalo Sabres: new hotness.

It’s a blessing in disguise for Red Wings fans who would have been watching the local broadcast anyway. If I can make a recommendation, it’s to give some love to the radio broadcast for at least a period (it’s easy to sync your TV up with the radio app). It’s Paul Woods’ final game in the broadcast booth, concluding a 40-year run on radio that followed his eight-year playing career.

I crossed paths with Paul in my stint with the Red Wings, and he’s as good a person as you’ll find in the game. He keeps a low profile, not getting out there besides the game broadcasts. I remember being a kid in the ’90s and tuning into the radio broadcast when games lasted past my bedtime, keeping the volume as low as I could, and loving how the game came alive through Ken and Paul’s call. It was a treat to get to know him, and to find that he’s as low-maintenance and humble as they come.

He’s a true hockey lifer. I found a lot of people in the profession who are around hockey so much that small talk tends to be about other topics, which is perfectly healthy. But it’s inspiring to be around people who live and breathe it, and Paul does. He’s watching games every night, and he has a handle on the entire league. And his opinions are his own, and not just generalities or what the listener wants to hear.

I learned a lot from how he sees the game. He has some idiosyncrasies on the air, but I never found that it took away from the message. And I’m tellin’ ya, I met a lot of young, aspiring broadcasters, and good luck to them, but they’re all trying to sound the same, no real character or life behind the call. The Red Wings have been blessed with TV and radio broadcasters who are authentically themselves, and the product is better for it. Best of luck to Paul on a well-earned retirement and a half-century dedicated to the Red Wings.

The only other topic worth delving into for tonight’s game is the utter shock, dismay and disgust that I’ve seen in some circles that Detroit called up Michael Brandsegg-Nygard and only played him 11 minutes on Monday. I have a couple points on that:

One… this isn’t a video game. He doesn’t gain more experience points from playing 15 minutes instead of 11. He’s being rewarded for being the best prospect on the Griffins of late with an opportunity to play against a top team (and whatever Florida is), before focusing on a long AHL playoff run he can use as a springboard into 2026-27. If he doesn’t score 20 goals next year, it’s not because he got five fewer shifts in a low-stakes mid-April game.

I understand how the fanbase is over most of this team, and I’m right there, too. There are some pending UFAs who we assume are on the way out, but there is an ugly elephant in the room, which some are conveniently ignoring. It helps Detroit to win this game. Currently, they can finish as high as 13th in the NHL, but a loss combined with the right results from out-of-town results could see them fall behind a few more lottery teams.

With that unprotected first-round pick in St. Louis’ pocket, Detroit needs lower odds of winning, which, let’s face it, they are absolutely going to because that’s how things have been rolling, so just prepare for it now. Teams can only move up 10 spots, so it could be the difference between handing over a top-five pick or something later in the top 10. I’ll hear out your arguments on which players actually give the Red Wings the best chance to win, but giving a goalie his first start, letting multiple kids make their NHL debuts, assembling lines that have never played together… is not generally a recipe for success. Just get it over with and let the Griffins’ playoff run serve as the audition for next year.

I’ll walk that back slightly to call the team on one line of bullshit, however. When asked Monday if they planned to call up more players, Todd McLellan said they couldn’t, citing the four call-up maximum — you get four call-ups after the deadline, anything else has to be “emergency conditions,” meaning you won’t have enough healthy skaters if they don’t play.

The Red Wings have used the four on ASP, MBN, Mazur, and Shine. So he’s not lying, but, c’mon. Teams are openly making a mockery of this rule, with Carolina taking the opportunity to make a bit out of it with daily tweets like:

Take it from my fantasy hockey team’s championship series, star players are dropping like flies right now. Multiple teams have rested 5-6 players at once and filled out the lineup with emergency recalls. All of these players have been perfectly fine after their one evening of rest. Truly, this is the one trick that doctors hate!

This is a whole lot about nothing, but I think the Griffins — what with the continuous record-setting and all — deserve better than that, as there are some good soldiers worthy of a game, even beyond the prospects fans are clamoring for. We keep hearing that “everyone is banged up,” and while you shouldn’t sit Larkin and Raymond if you’d like to win, I’m confident they muster up the right “conditions” on a few others who may not be long for this roster.

If they truly wanted to give Cossa a look, just point to the three times Gibson has needed to leave a game due to injury and say he has a lingering issue. If anyone in the bottom six has blocked a shot in the last week, they clearly have a contusion and can’t go. Maybe some of the guys went to blow off some steam in Fort Lauderdale and have come down with “food poisoning” that’s going to keep them out.

The NHL is clearly not investigating this rule, which is in place to prevent tanking. Given that Detroit does not benefit from tanking this season, I think they’d have a long leash here. Because, uh, look at Florida’s lineup below. I don’t doubt you get banged up when you have three short summers in a row. Wilmer Skoog? Marek Alscher? These are not real guys (both are totally scoring tonight, btw).

They have 12 (!) regulars out, most of whom — of all the rotten luck — suffered their ailments just after the Panthers’ playoff hopes became mathematically inconvenient. What curious timing! I refuse to believe there isn’t at least one hangnail in there. They are openly tanking and violating the spirit of this rule, and the NHL is choosing to look the other way. Much bigger fish to fry as far as the Red Wings are concerned but… they could get Amadeus Lombardi to Sunrise tonight if they really wanted to.

How to Watch
Time: 7:00 p.m. EDT
TV: FanDuel Sports Network
Radio: WWJ Newsradio 950

Red Wings Projected Lineup
Finnie – Larkin – Raymond
DeBrincat – Copp – Kane
Mazur – Compher – Perron
van Riemsdyk – Kasper – Brandsegg-Nygard

Edvinsson – Seider
Chiarot – Faulk
Johansson – Sandin-Pellikka

Gibson
Talbot

Panthers Projected Lineup
Verhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk
Samoskevich – Luostarinen – Greer
Foote – Gregor – Boqvist
Reinhardt – Kunin – Hinostroza

Bjornfot – Benning
Sebrango – Alscher
Hovorka – Jansson

Tarasov
Bobrovsky

The margins in this league are tight. I wrote a post over the weekend fantasizing over the idea that the Islanders could ride their late-season New Coach Bump to a win over Ottawa. Had that happened, and had the Red Wings held on to one of their many one-goal leads over the Devils, we’d be in business right now. Ottawa lost to New Jersey last night, so had the hockey gods felt differently, we could be looking at a two-point gap, with a game in a hand, and some control over our fate.

The gods had already made up their minds, and Red Wings are officially eliminated from playoff contention. They now hold the longest playoff drought in the NHL at 10 years, as we now bow to our forthcoming Buffalo Sabres overlords. Bummer, man.

The reality is that it shouldn’t have even come down Saturday’s unfortunate results, between the leads blown over the last six weeks and plenty of other bad breaks throughout the year. As I’ve maintained, every team has those “few points that got away,” but it seems so much more clearly defined for the Red Wings than in years past. A stat I was keeping was our early-season record with Travis Hamonic in the lineup (not good) vs. Jacob Bernard-Docker (notably better)… It was clear to me that the team was trying to let Hamonic find a rhythm, but maybe we can lighten up on “doing right by a good pro” in the interest of “playing the players helping you win” going forward. Every point counts.

But that’s an example of cherry-picking that I’m just not a fan of. It’s not an individual player’s fault, it’s not a single decision’s fault. It’s a team sport, and that includes goaltending, coaching, management, contracts, scouting, special teams, performance of star players, maintaining intensity over 82 games; the works. Anyone can isolate a single scenario to fit their preferred narrative (myself included). It’s lazy. I don’t recommend doing it.

There will be time for post-mortems over the coming months. The same outlets producing the same post-mortems you’re tired of reading. I get it. But, let’s do it. Let’s fire off a few reasons to be positive. The doomers are salivating; they know how dumb I am. They can’t wait for the fresh meat I’m about to toss. These are dry-aged prime cuts that have more flavor than the dull sports-radio takes (a sinewy, unseasoned chewy slab that cooks unevenly) that are on special at the moment.

1. Consider a screenshot:

This is not current, but it may as well be. I grabbed this an hour or so after Detroit earned that ‘E.’ Look, it’s not the first time the current playoff format has disadvantaged a team; I’ve longed for a return to the 1-to-8 format that honestly, probably wouldn’t see Detroit make the playoffs either.

But this is absurd. Only two teams in this picture are out of playoff contention, and one of them is right at the top. There is a world in which the Red Wings finish as the 11th-place team in the 32-team NHL, and people want to blow it up? Please. I’m not here to tell you this season was a success. But there’s something worth building off. Even a .500 record down the stretch gets them in, comfortably. In the Metro, they’re still alive. In the Central, they’re in the driver’s seat for a Wild Card. In the Pacific, they’re taking bids for a vendor to stitch a division title banner and eyeing home-ice advantage for two rounds. They’re better than most NHL teams. They didn’t make the playoffs. Both are facts.

And what’s a blow-up, really? Should we trade valuable veteran assets like DeBrincat or Larkin? You’re just wasting prime years of Raymond and Seider outside the postseason, then. Trade them, too? Where does it stop? I know we’re all sick of prospect accolades, and rankings don’t promise anything, but should we just dismantle what The Athletic just ranked as the fourth-best prospect base (which has recently graduated Raymond, Seider, Edvinsson, Kasper, Sandin-Pellikka and Finnie)? Just to play the lottery ball game again, check back in a decade and hope we’ve landed the next Macklin Celebrini?

Nah, not for me. That’s nonsense. That’s not a plan. That’s just venting frustration (which we all feel). Give me concrete next steps, I’ll hear it out. It’s not a video game. You can’t just press reset. You might end up in the same spot, you might end up even worse. Much worse. It’s possible to have success in this league without bottoming out. The reigning two-time champs bottomed out from 2010-15 (ish, Florida was basically an afterthought for decades). It didn’t work. They packaged assets in trades. They made themselves a free agent destination. They won a full decade later. Twice. Nearly three years in a row. That’s where the Red Wings are at. Now is the time to get aggressive, because you have the ammo to do so — and because you’ve seen that the group as it stands is not good enough.

2. This inspires urgency. This contradicts my first point in a way, but builds on the same idea. I would rather the Red Wings have started strong and faltered than sputtered from the start and just missed after a hot streak. Tomato, tomato for some of you, I’m sure. But it shows me that this team is capable of hanging with the best (as a finish as the 11th-13th best team in the league should support), but when they needed that killer instinct, they came up short. The “just jerseys” comment from McLellan is sure to get plenty of legs this summer, as many fit that category on a given night.

A late surge to me shows management that maybe you have something, a fall like the team had shows that some surgery is needed. With how free agency has evolved with a rising cap, they cannot fix issues by just adding a few new bodies here and there. They need to get creative, and aggressive, to add some new players to the mix who might provide a spark at this time of year when the team seems to generally falter. If it inspires a dramatic bottom-six shakeup or a trade for a top-six staple, I think it’s for the best long-term, even if the short-term pain is tough to handle.

3. I have more takes, but I’ll cap it at 3 for now, as this is getting quite long for a game day post. Maybe I’ll throw some more toxic positivity into a post for Wednesday’s season finale. I certainly don’t blame any readers who clocked out after Saturday’s game and won’t check back in until the draft or free agency. I also don’t blame anyone who’s had enough of hearing about prospects.

But if you asked me if I’d rather have the Hobey Baker and Mike Richter winners or not… I’d choose to have them.

This weekend, Red Wings prospects captured both honors, with Max Plante winning the Hobey Baker as the best player in college hockey after racking up 52 points in 40 games with the University of Minnesota-Duluth. This honor tends to favor older players, but the 20-year-old Plante beat out Michigan captain T.J. Hughes (just signed by Colorado at 24 going on 25 early next season) and Denver defenseman Eric Pohlkamp (a 22-year-old undersized defenseman in San Jose’s system).

Plante has decided to stay at UMD for his junior season for family reasons; he already played on a line with older brother Zam, but younger brother Victor is an incoming freshman and likely late-first/early-second round pick in the upcoming draft as one of the top players on USA Hockey’s NTDP U18 Team.

The most interesting thing that’s come of Plante’s press as Detroit’s first-ever prospect to win the Hobey is that he had two heart surgeries last summer to address a condition he didn’t know he’s been dealing with since birth. One article I read explained that he always felt a step behind his peers in training because he’d lose his wind easy, and just figured it meant he was out of shape. Even just looking at his face from his draft year to now, he looks like a completely different person. You always hope your draft picks take their training seriously, but the idea that he was already doing so and was hindered by some correctable genetic condition is pretty interesting, given that he was already considered a top player in his class with whatever limitations he had.

This is the most interesting prospect in Detroit’s system to me — any high second-round pick should be, but Plante is a guy who might really benefit from a surgery-free summer of training into a massive junior season (and potential Hobey repeat) that could see him jump right into the Red Wings lineup next March.

Capping that off, Trey Augustine won the Richter as the best goalie in college hockey. This is less surprising based on preseason expectations, as Augustine is a serial winner going back to his NTDP days. He is slightly undersized but turned pro immediately and made his Griffins debut over the weekend. He lost (I didn’t watch the game but those who did sounded impressed by his debut), but Grand Rapids has quite a choice ahead of what will hopefully be a deep playoff run.

Detroit’s goaltending pipeline has never looked like this. It’s fair to say Talbot’s career is at or near an end, but Gibson looks like a strong option for the next few years. Sebastian Cossa is out of waiver options next season, and while he’s been rocky of late, he’s had several excellent seasons with the Griffins and seems ready to handle an NHL test next fall. If he isn’t, free agent signee Michal Postava has looked like an excellent find, and Augustine seems like he will be right on the heels of those two. Down the road, Rudy Guimond has had two straight years of being one of the best QMJHL goalies and Michal Pradal has been a top USHL netminder since coming to North America.

Not every prospect works out. I still prefer when our guys are making headlines. These days are dark, but I think the future is bright. Let’s finish the year on a high note.

How to Watch
Time: 7:00 p.m. EDT
TV: FanDuel Sports Network
Radio: 97.1 The Ticket

Lineup notes: Michael Brandsegg-Nygard has been recalled, and it’s a fitting reward for being far-and-away Detroit’s best forward prospect in GR the past few months. No word yet on where he’ll play, so I’ll guess the third line and hope it’s even higher.

Red Wings Projected Lineup
Finnie – Larkin – Raymond
DeBrincat – Copp – Kane
Perron – Compher – Brandsegg-Nygard
van Riemsdyk – Kasper – Shine/Mazur

Edvinsson – Seider
Chiarot – Faulk
Johansson – JBD/ASP

Gibson
Talbot

Lightning Projected Lineup
Hagel – Cirelli – Kucherov
Guentzel – Point – Goncalves
Paul – Gourde – Bjorkstrand
Perry – Geekie – Sabourin

Moser – Carlile
McDonagh – Cernak
D’Astous – Lilleberg

Vasilevskiy
Johansson

Such a cool team. The coolest in the New York market, that’s for sure. By a mile. And the fans? Lovely people. Every single one: smart, good-looking, funny. If you haven’t met an Islanders fan, you simply must venture out and find one. They’ll change your life. Need a ride to the airport? Islanders fan. Short some change for your bus fare? Don’t you worry: an Islanders fan is nearby. Just the other day I was tuning up my lawnmower, and I kid you not, Oleg Kvasha himself came strolling up my driveway and said “hey buddy, I got it.” I wasn’t surprised in the least. Thing runs like a dream now.

They’re sweet, gentle souls who deserve nothing but the best. And what a history! Four straight Stanley Cups. That’s only happened three times and may never happen again. Fantastic achievement. Can you imagine being a defenseman in the early ’80s and seeing a helmetless Clark Gillies roaring down the wing right at you? Those poor people.

And the fishstick jersey? Don’t even get me started. Ahead of its time. Absolutely beautiful. I already have a couple, but I think I’ll order one more. I keep hearing “that’s against the office dress code and you need to stop,” but I know it’s just jealousy.

Isles fans: we’re practically cousins, what with Jimmy D setting the foundations for our most dominant eras. Think about all the greats who have suited up for both franchises: Chris Osgood. Mathieu Schneider. Mike Sillinger. Uwe Krupp. Marek Zidlicky. Darryl Bootland. Dmytro Timashov. I could go on for days.

Since we’re so close, how ’bout a favor? You may have noticed that we beat Philadelphia the other day, and along with your dominant win over Toronto (people are saying they’ve never seen anything like it), really opened up a window for you to climb back into the third seed in the Metro. And that’s free of charge, we were happy to do it. But if you’re looking to say thanks, I don’t know, maybe there’s something you could do for us…

I mean, I guess it wouldn’t hurt if you took it to the Ottawa Senators this afternoon. Use all those new Pete DeBoer tricks and scratch both of our backs in the process. I believe in you. You’ve never let me down, and I know you won’t start now.

Whether it was too little, too late or the start of a streak, the Red Wings are coming off their best performance of the past several months, snapping their home losing skid with a 6-3 win over the Flyers. It gave a despondent fanbase reasons to cheer, with a Larkin hat trick, a five-point effort for Seider and DeBrincat becoming the team’s first 40-goal scorer since Marian Hossa. Still, the timing left a sour taste, as that’s exactly the performance fans have been hoping for in several must-win games of late.

The Red Wings remain three points behind the Senators for the second Wild Card, but climbed up a spot in the standings thanks to a Columbus loss. The odds still say 5% for Detroit and 96% for Ottawa, but… am I crazy to think it’s a little tighter than that? Both teams have three games left. The Senators’ magic number over the Red Wings is three — three more standings points, and they’ll be guaranteed to finish ahead of Detroit, as the Red Wings can only reach 97 points and will not have a tiebreaker.

But what if they don’t? A lot can happen in three games. The Red Wings need to take care of their own business, for sure. But if they win out, and the Senators go 1-2-0? Detroit’s in. They could even go 2-1-0 and jump Ottawa if they lose out in regulation. I get it, the math is the math, and it’s not likely (Boston losing out would also be a path). Plus, Ottawa’s rolling and finally got some of those injured defensemen back. But teams lose three straight games all the time. Weirder things have happened. And we’ve got the Islanders on our side.

How to Watch
Time: 5:00 p.m. EDT
TV: FanDuel Sports Network
Radio: 97.1 The Ticket

Lineup notes: No morning skate for a 5 p.m. start, but Detroit’s likely to roll with the same group, and Gibson is a game-time decision after leaving last game due to reported neck stiffness, Michal Postava will back up Talbot if he can’t go.

Red Wings Projected Lineup
Finnie – Larkin – Raymond
DeBrincat – Copp – Kane
Mazur – Compher – Perron
van Riemsdyk – Kasper – Shine

Edvinsson – Seider
Chiarot – Faulk
Johansson – Bernard-Docker

Gibson
Talbot
(Postava)

Devils Projected Lineup
Meier – Hischier – Mercer
Bratt – J. Hughes – Brown
Hameenaho – Glass – Bjugstad
Cotter – McLaughlin – Halonen

Siegenthaler – Hamilton
Dillon – Nemec
Cholowski – Kovacevic

Allen
Daws

Rooting Guide: Enough said.

It doesn’t feel worthwhile this year. Not as much because I feel defeated, but because it just feels like the hockey gods have it in for this team. [Larry] Murphy’s Law, or something. Tuesday’s game against Columbus was a solid effort, but everyone saw it coming. Multiple lost 50/50 battles to get the puck out of the zone. Several icing calls that just barely trickled over the line and prevented Detroit’s tired players from getting a change. Once Columbus pulled the goalie, there was not a second that elapsed where the Red Wings were not on their heels.

Let’s be clear: this is all self-inflicted. This is now a trend of multiple blown leads over the past six weeks in particular, when holding onto even a couple of them, or bouncing back in overtime, would see Detroit alive and well in the playoff race right now. But as it stands, The Athletic has its playoff chances down to 5%. That means winning out and getting a heck of a lot of help from any teams playing Ottawa, Columbus or the Islanders.

Maybe it’s the cosmic price for the four Cups. When the team tanks, it can’t get lottery luck (though I’d argue that Raymond and Seider have massively overperformed almost all of the guys they missed out on due to lottery misfortune). So much so, in fact, that the lottery odds eventually change to the benefit of teams at the very bottom. When they’re ready to spend in free agency, the cap starts shooting up so much that no one useful is even coming close to the open market. When they want to add at the deadline, there are few sellers and prices are sky high.

When they look ready to turn the corner and get into the postseason, every team around them in the East is suddenly red hot, and the past month has been practically worst-case-scenario every night. The Red Wings are all but dead right now with a point total just ahead of Edmonton and Vegas, one of whom is going to hang a banner for a regular-season Pacific Division title. I’d almost guarantee that one of two will be competing in the Western Conference Final at the end of May.

The bounces on the ice mirror the bounces off the ice. It’s been a rocky road. The Red Wings have definitely not made perfect roster decisions at every turn, no team has. Just as they’ve not played well enough, especially when their fate was in their own hands. But… is this not just ridiculous, or is it just me? Let’s hope this is the end of our karmic punishment.

But there are games left, so onward we go. It’s been tough listening to the dejection coming from the dressing room of late. Even though it might be moot, I want to see them go down swinging. I think my opinion has changed on quite a few guys who I thought would be rising to the occasion this time of year. Some are hurt, but every team has that at this time of year. The only silver lining I can muster is that this could be a blessing in disguise. In a less dramatic unraveling, management might be encouraged by a group that got close and figure they’re just a couple of pieces away from the next step.

It’s certainly not looking like that at the moment. It’s looking like we have a few players who can perform with their backs against the wall, and too many who are running from the fight. Going through the motions. Their only chance at playing beyond next week is to win out. I’d argue that tonight is the toughest test left. Philadelphia is looking good for a playoff spot, but can’t throw away any easy points (which a team that has lost five straight at home certainly looks like). Of the games remaining, New Jersey and Florida are already done, and Tampa may have nothing to play for except seeding, if that. Let’s see who wants to send a message on the way out.

How to Watch
Time: 7:00 p.m. EDT
TV: FanDuel Sports Network
Radio: 97.1 The Ticket

Lineup notes: Just a guess with Rasmussen and Appleton likely out, but I wouldn’t be shocked if they recalled a forward either since they’re getting exactly nothing from that bottom six. Also assuming that JBD will slot in for ASP.

Red Wings Projected Lineup
Finnie – Larkin – Raymond
DeBrincat – Copp – Kane
Perron – Compher – Mazur
van Riemsdyk – Kasper – Shine

Edvinsson – Seider
Chiarot – Faulk
Johansson – Bernard-Docker

Gibson
Talbot

Flyers Projected Lineup
Foerster – Zegras – Tippett
Konecny – Dvorak – Martone
Bump – Cates – Michkov
Barkey – Couturier – Glendening

Sanheim – Ristolainen
York – Drysdale
Seeler – Andrae

Vladar
Ersson

Rooting Guide: Toronto over Islanders, Buffalo over Columbus, Florida over Ottawa, but more than anything, just one Red Wings game that gives us something to feel good about. How ’bout a Marco Kasper hat trick?

Plenty of you will tell me I’m too late for that train, but I’ve remained hopeful that the effort level would improve. There’s too much on the line for a team that’s been this close to the postseason for the past several seasons not to see an improved effort. It’s been a defining characteristic of the Todd McLellan era that he’s been able to extract competitiveness from this group.

There was a glimpse on Sunday, as there have been a few — too few — times over the six weeks, when the Red Wings erased a three-goal third-period deficit against a powerhouse Minnesota Wild squad and were minutes from forcing overtime. An illogical away-from-the-play tripping penalty on Patrick Kane gave the Wild the power play that they barely needed any time on to put Detroit away.

It’s a haunting loss of at least one point. The standings are so tight that that moment could be the difference between playoffs and no playoffs. Same as it felt on March 4, when Detroit couldn’t hold a 3-1 lead against a Vegas team that hadn’t beaten a team in a playoff position on the road in nearly three months, and lost 4-3 in overtime. Same as it felt on March 10, when they couldn’t even get to overtime against the Florida Panthers despite leading midway through the third period, losing 4-3 in the dying seconds of regulation. Same as it felt many other times this season.

Every team has games like that going against them, just as every team has games they don’t deserve to win that go in their favor. And while that penalty proved incredibly costly, it’s a team sport, and it’s the team’s effort earlier in the game that made that moment so crucial, and the effort all season that has left each player in a position where a mistake like that can be so damaging. Father Time is catching up to Kane, but I have to believe his competitive fire still burns too strongly not to make up for that tonight.

The outlook is not good. In each of the past few losses, the Red Wings have been in a position where a win would have them grab hold of a playoff spot. That won’t be the case tonight. If they want to hold out any hope, they have to win to at least keep pace. Too many teams have pulled away, and now only the second Wild Card seed seems attainable. Ottawa is two points ahead, sitting at 90 points and even in games played with Detroit, and the Senators hold a tiebreaker that is impossible to reverse (34 regulation wins to Detroit’s 29).

Meanwhile, the Flyers have stormed into the third seed of the Metro after being multiple games behind weeks ago. The Islanders are on the outs — and in between Ottawa and Detroit — and are so desperate that they relieved Patrick Roy of his duties over the weekend in favor of Pete DeBoer after a 3-7 record in their last 10. I’m sensing absolutely no sympathy from the Red Wings fanbase for multiple reasons. Detroit is tied with (but ahead of) tonight’s opponent, the Columbus Blue Jackets, who have come back to earth with three-straight losses and a 3-6-1 recent stretch after a massive New Coach Bump from the essentially retired Rick Bowness starting Jan. 12. The Capitals are lurking as well, just one point behind the Red Wings (who have a game in hand).

Those are the stakes. Five games to go. Three at home (Columbus, Philly, New Jersey) and two next week on the road (Tampa, Florida). Going 3-2 would require an incredible sequence of lucky outcomes to grant a playoff berth. 4-1 could do it, with significant help. 5-0 might be the only way, and it isn’t guaranteed to be enough.

It’s not impossible, but it’s looking improbable. In either event, management is watching. This is the time of year when players you build around are rising to the occasion. Alex DeBrincat is. Moritz Seider is. Dylan Larkin is getting “look how injured this guy is” montages every game, and led the Red Wings with seven shots and 10 shot attempts on Saturday. Everyone else is on notice, as far as I’m concerned.

How to Watch
Time: 7:00 p.m. EDT
TV: FanDuel Sports Network
Radio: 97.1 The Ticket

Lineup note: Updated following morning skates. Justin Faulk is a game-time decision.

Red Wings Projected Lineup
Finnie – Larkin – Raymond
DeBrincat – Copp – Kane
Kasper – Compher – Perron
van Riemsdyk – Rasmussen – Mazur

Edvinsson – Seider
Chiarot – Sandin-Pellikka/Faulk
Johansson – Bernard-Docker

Gibson
Talbot

Blue Jackets Projected Lineup
Sillinger – Fantilli – Johnson
Marchenko – Coyle – Garland
Marchment – Jenner – Heinen
Del Bel Belluz – Monahan – Lundestrom

Werenski – Fabbto
Provorov – Mateychuk
Christiansen – Gudbranson

Greaves
Merzlikins

Rooting Guide: Tampa over Ottawa, New Jersey over Philly, Carolina over Boston (I believe Boston needs to end the year no better than 1-2-1 to be caught, and even then would hold a tiebreaker unless Detroit manages 3+ regulation wins while winning out).

It’s a loss that definitely feels worse than the actual outcome, but we have to look at the standings, and the Red Wings are still alive as far as the numbers are concerned. Ottawa, Boston, Columbus and the Islanders all lost yesterday, but Philadelphia and Washington did not, so the Red Wings remain tied for the second Wild Card. The Senators still hold the tiebreaker among the four total teams currently sitting at 88 points, along with Detroit, Philadelphia and Columbus. Those Metro teams are also chasing the Isles, who have 89 points, and Washington has quietly entered the mix at 87.

Quite a cluster, leaving the Red Wings with no option but to win many hockey games as quickly as they can. After yesterday afternoon’s letdown, they are now faced with a visit from the Minnesota Wild, who are among the top five Stanley Cup favorites after adding Quinn Hughes early in the season and bolstering their lineup with several other moves at the trade deadline. It’s not going to be easy.

I’m not ready to write the season off until the standings say I need to. But the effort level is just not where it needs to be right now, save for the Buffalo game and about 2/3rds of the most recent Flyers game.

A few odds and ends to wrap this one up. The Red Wings announced a three-year entry-level contract for Noah Dower Nilsson this morning. The 20-year-old 2023 third-round pick has spent the last two seasons with Frolunda in the Swedish Hockey League, notching 16 points this season. He’s on the smaller side, but was considered a deviation from the “responsible two-way player” type that Detroit has targeted so frequently at recent drafts. There’s some high-end skill there, and now he’ll get an opportunity to play a bit more with the Griffins starting next season (if not sooner) rather than the SHL, which doesn’t typically give big minutes to young players. Worth noting that older brother Liam is a former Red Wings prospect who finished second in scoring in the Swedish Allsvenskan (just under the SHL) — wonder if the team has continued to keep tabs on him and has any interest in seeing him play with his brother.

Swedes are ruling the day for Grand Rapids, who are rolling again with five-straight wins and saw both Eddie Genborg and Anton Johansson score their first AHL goals yesterday. I only mention all this because there are quite a few guys I think this fanbase would be content to never see play again, so here’s hoping we get a big summer from some of these prospects, regardless of this season’s outcome.

How to Watch
Time: 1:00 p.m. EDT
TV: TNT/TruTV/HBO Max
Radio: 97.1 The Ticket

Red Wings Projected Lineup
Finnie – Larkin – Kasper
DeBrincat – Copp – Kane
Perron – Compher – Raymond
van Riemsdyk – Rasmussen – Shine

Johansson – Seider
Edvinsson – Bernard-Docker
Chiarot – Sandin-Pellikka

Talbot
Gibson

Wild Projected Lineup
Kaprizov – Hartman – Zuccarello
Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy
Trenin – Yurov – Tarasenko
N. Foligno – McCarron – M. Foligno

Hughes – Faber
Brodin – Spurgeon
Middleton – Bogosian

Gustavsson
Walstedt

Rooting Guide: Florida over Pittsburgh, Philly over Boston (I guess?), Carolina over Ottawa, Rangers over Washington