SgTraderClub Weekly Stocks Updates

- Nasdaq 100 weekly chart

🇨🇳 China / Hong Kong

Market Overview

Chinese equities declined as a technology-led sell-off, driven by worries over AI investment, financing needs and earnings, hit sentiment. The CSI 300 (CSI300) fell 1.57% and the Shanghai Composite (SSE) declined 0.69%, while the Hang Seng Index (HSI) dropped 4.52%, with Hong Kong closed on Monday for the Chung Yeung Festival and underperforming on selling in internet and biotech shares. Mainland bank shares were comparatively resilient. (Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables above.)

Index Weekly Performance

- CSI 300 (CSI300): -1.57%

- Shanghai Composite (SSE): -0.69%

- Hang Seng Index (HSI): -4.52%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Tech Rout Drives China Lower

AI-linked shares fell on concerns over investment spending, financing needs and earnings, while losses in U.S. tech and higher oil added to volatility. The CSI 300 fell into a technical bear market on Thursday, but a Friday rebound left it about 19% below its peak at the weekly close. The Hang Seng Tech Index fell 5% on Thursday, its biggest drop since April 2025.

2️⃣ Q3 GDP Beats; Demand Stays Uneven

China's Q3 GDP grew 4.5% year on year, ahead of the 4.4% poll median. September industrial production rose 5.5% and retail sales 1.1%, while fixed asset investment fell 7.2% in the first nine months. The stronger headline may reduce the urgency for broad stimulus, though domestic demand looks uneven.

3️⃣ Platform and Biotech Policy Pressure

The market regulator met major online platforms, including JD.com and Pinduoduo, over product quality and counterfeits, and Hong Kong-listed e-commerce shares fell Thursday. On Friday, biotech shares dropped after the U.S. Treasury proposed wider outbound investment rules that add biotechnology. The proposal is open to consultation and has not taken effect.

4️⃣ PBoC Studies Policy Benchmark Change

PBoC Governor Pan Gongsheng said the central bank is studying whether to make the overnight reverse repo rate, rather than the seven-day rate, its main policy benchmark to improve transmission. No change has been made. The one-year and five-year loan prime rates were left at 3.00% and 3.50%, as expected.

5️⃣ Maybank Securities Stays Defensive

Maybank Securities maintains a defensive stance until visibility improves, with Hong Kong seen as more resilient given its weighting in dividend-yielding financials and cash-generative companies. It favours Standard Chartered, BOCHK and Zijin Mining. Next week's Fifth Plenum could be an upside catalyst.

Technical Snapshot

The HSI closed at 23,093.37, down 4.52% on the week and 9.90% year to date, the weakest of the ten major indices in this week's table. The SSE ended at 3,690.48, down 0.69% for the week and 7.01% year to date, holding up better than Hong Kong. The trend remains weak in both indices, with next week's Fifth Plenum and U.S. tech earnings the likely swing factors.

Hang Seng Index Weekly Gainers

Only 10 of the 95 Hang Seng Index constituents gained for the week, with one unchanged and 84 lower. Sunny Optical led at +9.45%, followed by Hansoh (+3.97%), BYD Electronic (+1.91%) and BeOne Medicines (+1.51%). Power Assets was flat. (Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents' weekly performance table below.)

HSI Constituents — Weekly Gainers
Week 43, 25 Oct 2026
Code Company Close (Wk) Wk % YTD %
HSI ★ HSI ★ 23,093.37 -4.52% -9.90%
2382 Sunny Optical 63.15 +9.45% -3.66%
3692 Hansoh 33.00 +3.97% -8.54%
285 BYD Electronic 22.46 +1.91% -33.23%
6160 BeOne Medicines 228.40 +1.51% +27.38%
9633 Nongfu Spring 41.52 +0.78% -11.36%
2015 Li Auto 45.08 +0.71% -30.49%
300 Midea 94.60 +0.69% +11.36%
1810 XiaomiHXXD 26.80 +0.53% -31.81%
12 Henderson Land 27.34 +0.51% -2.84%
66 MTR Corp 32.40 +0.06% +8.72%
6 Power Assets 60.55 +0.00% +9.79%
FJ · Market Wrap | sgtraderclub.blogspot.com | Data: S&P Capital IQ | Blue code = tradable on SGX as a Singapore Depository ReceiptWeek 43

Code	Company	Close (Wk)	Wk %	YTD %
HSI ★	HSI ★	23,093.37	-4.52%	-9.90%
2382	Sunny Optical	63.15	+9.45%	-3.66%
3692	Hansoh	33.00	+3.97%	-8.54%
285	BYD Electronic	22.46	+1.91%	-33.23%
6160	BeOne Medicines	228.40	+1.51%	+27.38%
9633	Nongfu Spring	41.52	+0.78%	-11.36%
2015	Li Auto	45.08	+0.71%	-30.49%
300	Midea	94.60	+0.69%	+11.36%
1810	XiaomiHXXD	26.80	+0.53%	-31.81%
12	Henderson Land	27.34	+0.51%	-2.84%
66	MTR Corp	32.40	+0.06%	+8.72%
6	Power Assets	60.55	+0.00%	+9.79%

Hang Seng Index Weekly Decliners

A total of 84 of the 95 constituents declined. Lenovo (-19.32%) and CATL (-19.06%) fell the most, followed by CMOC (-10.95%), Laopu Gold (-10.67%), SMIC (-10.19%), Alibaba (-10.11%) and Hua Hong Semiconductor (-10.01%). CATL's slide followed 3Q results, where net income rose only 14.5% year on year on margin pressure from tax changes, per Maybank Securities. Tencent fell 7.61% and NetEase 7.44%, and the three telecom operators dropped between 4.76% and 7.40%. (Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents' weekly performance table below.)

HSI Constituents — Weekly Decliners
Week 43, 25 Oct 2026
Code Company Close (Wk) Wk % YTD %
HSI ★ HSI ★ 23,093.37 -4.52% -9.90%
9961 Trip.comHTGD 314.80 -0.06% -43.18%
322 Tingyi 12.35 -0.16% +4.75%
2628 China Life 23.54 -0.34% -14.02%
1997 Wharf REIC 30.32 -0.46% +23.35%
823 Link REIT 38.02 -0.47% +9.44%
1044 Hengan 19.70 -0.51% -29.39%
3 HK & China Gas 7.17 -0.69% +2.21%
2313 Shenzhou Intl 37.04 -0.80% -39.48%
2057 ZTO Express 157.00 -0.82% -3.27%
1113 CK Asset 44.12 -0.85% +12.21%
386 Sinopec 4.46 -0.89% -4.50%
2319 China Mengniu Dairy 18.63 -0.90% +24.95%
1038 CK Infra 67.30 -0.96% +16.84%
939 CCB 9.77 -1.01% +26.98%
388 HKEX 370.80 -1.01% -9.03%
1876 Budweiser APAC 6.01 -1.15% -20.82%
669 Techtronic 129.10 -1.30% +43.60%
2 CLP Holdings 76.05 -1.43% +9.27%
6862 Haidilao 9.23 -1.44% -35.23%
16 Sun Hung Kai 105.50 -1.59% +11.40%
288 WH Group 6.34 -1.78% -26.87%
2600 Aluminum Corp China 7.14 -1.79% -41.33%
2318 Ping AnHPAD 49.02 -2.06% -24.76%
1209 CR Mixc 38.86 -2.07% -9.50%
960 Longfor 4.93 -2.18% -42.35%
101 Hang Lung Prop. 6.25 -2.27% -27.35%
291 CR Beer 19.37 -2.32% -26.13%
1 CK Hutchison 64.35 -2.35% +21.53%
1929 Chow Tai Fook 10.91 -2.42% -11.95%
1099 Sinopharm 15.34 -2.42% -21.09%
6618 JD Health 37.60 -2.49% -32.25%
2388 BOC Hong Kong 48.88 -2.53% +24.00%
1211 BYDHYDD 71.60 -2.92% -24.91%
3988 Bank of ChinaHBND 5.96 -3.01% +33.52%
1299 AIA Group 71.05 -3.07% -11.08%
1378 China Hongqiao 19.02 -3.16% -41.69%
2338 Weichai Power 24.60 -3.23% +30.50%
3968 CM Bank 51.45 -3.38% -2.56%
2020 ANTA Sports 75.30 -3.40% -6.52%
883 CNOOC 23.12 -3.51% +8.54%
6690 Haier 19.41 -3.53% -20.06%
9901 New Oriental 46.42 -3.57% +9.90%
2618 JD Logistics 9.89 -3.65% -13.35%
2331 Li Ning 12.79 -3.69% -31.49%
868 Xinyi Glass 7.79 -3.88% -5.74%
857 PetroChinaHPCD 9.61 -3.90% +14.62%
1519 J&T Global Express 8.93 -4.03% -14.59%
2688 ENN Energy 48.06 -4.17% -30.55%
9888 BaiduHBUD 75.95 -4.41% -42.24%
1928 Sands China 10.98 -4.44% -43.98%
1398 ICBC 7.24 -4.61% +15.10%
241 AliHealth 2.87 -4.66% -43.27%
941 China MobileHCMD 77.10 -4.76% -5.63%
1177 Sino Biopharm 5.00 -4.76% -19.09%
1024 KuaishouHKUD 27.90 -4.78% -56.37%
5 HSBCHSHD 142.50 -4.81% +16.42%
2269 WuXi Bio 45.80 -4.98% +45.67%
1109 CR Land 29.50 -5.02% +8.46%
175 GeelyHGMD 14.25 -5.06% -20.39%
2359 WuXi AppTec 186.00 -5.20% +88.45%
3690 MeituanHMTD 71.65 -5.35% -30.64%
688 COLI 12.46 -5.39% +1.71%
968 Xinyi Solar 1.81 -5.47% -38.89%
9618 JD.comHJDD 100.00 -5.75% -10.39%
27 Galaxy Ent. 31.60 -5.78% -17.54%
1093 CSPC Pharma 8.35 -6.02% -1.01%
836 CR Power 18.57 -6.35% +7.28%
316 OOIL 150.30 -6.41% +19.86%
1801 Innovent Bio 83.20 -6.57% +9.11%
1088 China Shenhua 39.62 -6.86% +2.11%
267 CITIC 11.92 -7.38% -1.16%
9992 Pop MartHPPD 131.70 -7.38% -29.83%
762 China Unicom 5.20 -7.39% -33.16%
728 China Telecom 4.32 -7.40% -19.94%
9999 NetEase 183.00 -7.44% -14.73%
700 TencentHTCD 386.00 -7.61% -35.56%
2899 Zijin Mining 29.46 -7.82% -17.39%
1347 Hua Hong Semi 67.45 -10.01% -9.22%
9988 AlibabaHBBD 97.80 -10.11% -31.51%
981 SMICHSMD 47.06 -10.19% -34.14%
6181 Laopu GoldHLPD 284.60 -10.67% -53.95%
3993 CMOC Group 13.01 -10.95% -32.38%
3750 CATLHCCD 356.80 -19.06% -29.42%
992 Lenovo 22.64 -19.32% +144.49%
FJ · Market Wrap | sgtraderclub.blogspot.com | Data: S&P Capital IQ | Blue code = tradable on SGX as a Singapore Depository ReceiptWeek 43

Code	Company	Close (Wk)	Wk %	YTD %
HSI ★	HSI ★	23,093.37	-4.52%	-9.90%
9961	Trip.comHTGD	314.80	-0.06%	-43.18%
322	Tingyi	12.35	-0.16%	+4.75%
2628	China Life	23.54	-0.34%	-14.02%
1997	Wharf REIC	30.32	-0.46%	+23.35%
823	Link REIT	38.02	-0.47%	+9.44%
1044	Hengan	19.70	-0.51%	-29.39%
3	HK & China Gas	7.17	-0.69%	+2.21%
2313	Shenzhou Intl	37.04	-0.80%	-39.48%
2057	ZTO Express	157.00	-0.82%	-3.27%
1113	CK Asset	44.12	-0.85%	+12.21%
386	Sinopec	4.46	-0.89%	-4.50%
2319	China Mengniu Dairy	18.63	-0.90%	+24.95%
1038	CK Infra	67.30	-0.96%	+16.84%
939	CCB	9.77	-1.01%	+26.98%
388	HKEX	370.80	-1.01%	-9.03%
1876	Budweiser APAC	6.01	-1.15%	-20.82%
669	Techtronic	129.10	-1.30%	+43.60%
2	CLP Holdings	76.05	-1.43%	+9.27%
6862	Haidilao	9.23	-1.44%	-35.23%
16	Sun Hung Kai	105.50	-1.59%	+11.40%
288	WH Group	6.34	-1.78%	-26.87%
2600	Aluminum Corp China	7.14	-1.79%	-41.33%
2318	Ping AnHPAD	49.02	-2.06%	-24.76%
1209	CR Mixc	38.86	-2.07%	-9.50%
960	Longfor	4.93	-2.18%	-42.35%
101	Hang Lung Prop.	6.25	-2.27%	-27.35%
291	CR Beer	19.37	-2.32%	-26.13%
1	CK Hutchison	64.35	-2.35%	+21.53%
1929	Chow Tai Fook	10.91	-2.42%	-11.95%
1099	Sinopharm	15.34	-2.42%	-21.09%
6618	JD Health	37.60	-2.49%	-32.25%
2388	BOC Hong Kong	48.88	-2.53%	+24.00%
1211	BYDHYDD	71.60	-2.92%	-24.91%
3988	Bank of ChinaHBND	5.96	-3.01%	+33.52%
1299	AIA Group	71.05	-3.07%	-11.08%
1378	China Hongqiao	19.02	-3.16%	-41.69%
2338	Weichai Power	24.60	-3.23%	+30.50%
3968	CM Bank	51.45	-3.38%	-2.56%
2020	ANTA Sports	75.30	-3.40%	-6.52%
883	CNOOC	23.12	-3.51%	+8.54%
6690	Haier	19.41	-3.53%	-20.06%
9901	New Oriental	46.42	-3.57%	+9.90%
2618	JD Logistics	9.89	-3.65%	-13.35%
2331	Li Ning	12.79	-3.69%	-31.49%
868	Xinyi Glass	7.79	-3.88%	-5.74%
857	PetroChinaHPCD	9.61	-3.90%	+14.62%
1519	J&T Global Express	8.93	-4.03%	-14.59%
2688	ENN Energy	48.06	-4.17%	-30.55%
9888	BaiduHBUD	75.95	-4.41%	-42.24%
1928	Sands China	10.98	-4.44%	-43.98%
1398	ICBC	7.24	-4.61%	+15.10%
241	AliHealth	2.87	-4.66%	-43.27%
941	China MobileHCMD	77.10	-4.76%	-5.63%
1177	Sino Biopharm	5.00	-4.76%	-19.09%
1024	KuaishouHKUD	27.90	-4.78%	-56.37%
5	HSBCHSHD	142.50	-4.81%	+16.42%
2269	WuXi Bio	45.80	-4.98%	+45.67%
1109	CR Land	29.50	-5.02%	+8.46%
175	GeelyHGMD	14.25	-5.06%	-20.39%
2359	WuXi AppTec	186.00	-5.20%	+88.45%
3690	MeituanHMTD	71.65	-5.35%	-30.64%
688	COLI	12.46	-5.39%	+1.71%
968	Xinyi Solar	1.81	-5.47%	-38.89%
9618	JD.comHJDD	100.00	-5.75%	-10.39%
27	Galaxy Ent.	31.60	-5.78%	-17.54%
1093	CSPC Pharma	8.35	-6.02%	-1.01%
836	CR Power	18.57	-6.35%	+7.28%
316	OOIL	150.30	-6.41%	+19.86%
1801	Innovent Bio	83.20	-6.57%	+9.11%
1088	China Shenhua	39.62	-6.86%	+2.11%
267	CITIC	11.92	-7.38%	-1.16%
9992	Pop MartHPPD	131.70	-7.38%	-29.83%
762	China Unicom	5.20	-7.39%	-33.16%
728	China Telecom	4.32	-7.40%	-19.94%
9999	NetEase	183.00	-7.44%	-14.73%
700	TencentHTCD	386.00	-7.61%	-35.56%
2899	Zijin Mining	29.46	-7.82%	-17.39%
1347	Hua Hong Semi	67.45	-10.01%	-9.22%
9988	AlibabaHBBD	97.80	-10.11%	-31.51%
981	SMICHSMD	47.06	-10.19%	-34.14%
6181	Laopu GoldHLPD	284.60	-10.67%	-53.95%
3993	CMOC Group	13.01	-10.95%	-32.38%
3750	CATLHCCD	356.80	-19.06%	-29.42%
992	Lenovo	22.64	-19.32%	+144.49%

📊 Weekly charts:

🇸🇬 Singapore

Market Overview

Singapore equities edged higher, with the Straits Times Index (STI) up 0.12% as REITs led and U.S. yields fell below 5%. Banks were little changed ahead of 3Q results, while shipbuilding, tech-linked and commodity names lagged. Eighteen of the 30 index constituents rose, one was flat and 11 fell.

Index Weekly Performance

- Straits Times Index (STI): +0.12%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ REITs Lead on Results, Lower Yields

Frasers Centrepoint Trust (+5.83%), CapLand Integrated Commercial Trust (+3.14%), Keppel DC REIT (+2.90%) and CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (+2.76%) led the gainers. Keppel DC REIT's 9M DPU rose 11.7% year on year, and Suntec REIT's Q3 DPU rose 13.4%. Lower U.S. yields could further support S-REITs.

2️⃣ Banks Steady Before 3Q Results

DBS rose 0.45%, OCBC was flat and UOB slipped 0.05%. Maybank Securities is positive on the sector and expects marginally weaker sequential earnings on lower trading income, partly offset by fees. It lists 3Q results for UOB on 4 Nov, DBS on 5 Nov and OCBC on 6 Nov.

3️⃣ Shipbuilders, Tech, Commodities Lag

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (-6.33%), Venture (-3.03%), Wilmar (-2.91%) and Genting Singapore (-2.46%) were the weakest performers. Venture's drop came as global tech stocks sold off. Singtel fell 1.44% after a S$1 million fine over March mobile outages.

4️⃣ September Inflation Edges Down to 2.2%

Singapore's September CPI rose 0.2% month on month and 2.2% year on year, down from 2.3% in August, on lower inflation for transport, information and communication services, furniture and clothing. The reading came in below an estimated 2.4%.

Technical Snapshot

The STI closed at 5,422.16, up 0.12% for the week and 16.7% YTD. The index has formed two weekly almost indential candlesticks at its long-term uptrend support line( drawn from Apr 2025 through Jun 2026 low)--interesting to watchout coming week as a breakout beyond the trading range would lead to cleared direction. REIT gains were offset by weakness in shipbuilding and tech-linked names. The chart points to sideways consolidation, with other factos such U.S. tech earnings, the Fed and oil also likely to set the next direction. (Refer to the STI weekly performance table below.)

STI Constituents — Weekly Performance
Week 43, 25 Oct 2026
Code Company Close (Wk) Wk % YTD %
STI ★ STI ★ 5,422.16 +0.12% +16.70%
J69U Frasers CT 2.18 +5.83% -6.44%
J36 JMH USD 58.65 +5.52% -14.24%
U14 UOL 7.92 +4.07% -9.38%
C38U CapLand IntCom Tr 2.30 +3.14% -3.77%
AJBU Keppel DC REIT 2.13 +2.90% -5.33%
A17U CapAscendas REIT 2.23 +2.76% -21.20%
Y92 ThaiBev 0.43 +2.35% -5.43%
BUOU Frasers L&C Tr 0.91 +2.26% -9.05%
N2IU Mapletree PACT 1.17 +1.74% -20.41%
C6L SIA 6.63 +1.53% +3.59%
U96 Sembcorp Ind 6.01 +1.52% -0.17%
C09 CityDev 7.13 +1.28% -10.88%
D01 DFI Retail USD 3.33 +1.22% -15.70%
M44U Mapletree Log Tr 1.09 +0.93% -17.42%
9CI CapLand Invest 2.40 +0.84% -11.44%
ME8U Mapletree Ind Tr 1.80 +0.56% -13.46%
S58 SATS 3.60 +0.56% -5.51%
D05 DBS 74.44 +0.45% +32.08%
O39 OCBC 29.00 +0.00% +46.76%
U11 UOB 41.59 -0.05% +18.63%
H78 HK Land USD 8.20 -0.61% +17.99%
BN4 Keppel 10.00 -0.99% -3.38%
S68 SGX 20.77 -1.10% +22.46%
Z74 Singtel 4.12 -1.44% -9.45%
S63 ST Engineering 10.20 -1.83% +21.14%
5E2 Seatrium 1.81 -2.16% -16.20%
G13 Genting Sing 0.59 -2.46% -17.93%
F34 Wilmar 3.34 -2.91% +8.44%
V03 Venture 15.38 -3.03% +1.59%
BS6 YZJ Ship SGD 4.88 -6.33% +40.23%
FJ · Market Wrap | sgtraderclub.blogspot.com | Data: S&P Capital IQWeek 43

Code	Company	Close (Wk)	Wk %	YTD %
STI ★	STI ★	5,422.16	+0.12%	+16.70%
J69U	Frasers CT	2.18	+5.83%	-6.44%
J36	JMH USD	58.65	+5.52%	-14.24%
U14	UOL	7.92	+4.07%	-9.38%
C38U	CapLand IntCom Tr	2.30	+3.14%	-3.77%
AJBU	Keppel DC REIT	2.13	+2.90%	-5.33%
A17U	CapAscendas REIT	2.23	+2.76%	-21.20%
Y92	ThaiBev	0.43	+2.35%	-5.43%
BUOU	Frasers L&C Tr	0.91	+2.26%	-9.05%
N2IU	Mapletree PACT	1.17	+1.74%	-20.41%
C6L	SIA	6.63	+1.53%	+3.59%
U96	Sembcorp Ind	6.01	+1.52%	-0.17%
C09	CityDev	7.13	+1.28%	-10.88%
D01	DFI Retail USD	3.33	+1.22%	-15.70%
M44U	Mapletree Log Tr	1.09	+0.93%	-17.42%
9CI	CapLand Invest	2.40	+0.84%	-11.44%
ME8U	Mapletree Ind Tr	1.80	+0.56%	-13.46%
S58	SATS	3.60	+0.56%	-5.51%
D05	DBS	74.44	+0.45%	+32.08%
O39	OCBC	29.00	+0.00%	+46.76%
U11	UOB	41.59	-0.05%	+18.63%
H78	HK Land USD	8.20	-0.61%	+17.99%
BN4	Keppel	10.00	-0.99%	-3.38%
S68	SGX	20.77	-1.10%	+22.46%
Z74	Singtel	4.12	-1.44%	-9.45%
S63	ST Engineering	10.20	-1.83%	+21.14%
5E2	Seatrium	1.81	-2.16%	-16.20%
G13	Genting Sing	0.59	-2.46%	-17.93%
F34	Wilmar	3.34	-2.91%	+8.44%
V03	Venture	15.38	-3.03%	+1.59%
BS6	YZJ Ship SGD	4.88	-6.33%	+40.23%

📊 Weekly charts:

📅 Week Ahead (26–30 Oct 2026)

The FOMC decision lands Wednesday (28 Oct, 2:00 pm ET), with a hold expected after the September hike and Chair Warsh's tone in focus. The advance Q3 GDP estimate and September PCE inflation are both due Thursday (29 Oct, 8:30 am ET; Friday 30 Oct in Singapore), with consensus expecting GDP growth of 3.2% annualised. Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft are expected to report earnings, giving fresh updates on AI spending.

The Fifth Plenum of the 20th Central Committee runs 26–29 Oct in Beijing, with an official agenda centred on Party self-governance. Maybank Securities sees any policy surprise as a possible upside catalyst for Alibaba and Tencent, expects volatility to stay elevated into the U.S. midterm elections, and notes Standard Chartered reports 3Q results on 28 Oct.

Singapore will take its cue from the Fed, U.S. big-tech earnings and oil prices, with S-REITs sensitive to U.S. yields after the 10-year fell below 5%. The local banks report 3Q results shortly after the week, with UOB listed for 4 Nov, DBS 5 Nov and OCBC 6 Nov by Maybank Securities.

🗓️ Overarching Watchpoint

The biggest binary risk is the collision of the Fed decision and hyperscaler earnings. Reassurance on AI returns could stabilise tech, while another capex-driven credit scare, or a hawkish Fed with oil near its highs, could extend the rotation and keep yields elevated.

Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports.

Unfamiliar with a term? See the Glossary.

AI Unwind: Hot Inflation Fuels Rotation Into Defensives

noreply@blogger.com (Fan Jun) — Sat, 17 Oct 2026 11:42:15 +0000

For the week of Oct 16, global equities were driven by a rotation out of AI-linked technology and into defensive and value sectors as hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation revived rate-hike worries. In the U.S., semiconductor and AI-infrastructure stocks sold off on financing and return concerns while the Dow held up and Treasury yields eased. In China/Hong Kong, mainland markets underperformed as chip and AI shares fell, even as surging exports underscored strong overseas tech demand. In Singapore, the market edged higher as the MAS surprised with a policy hold and local banks steadied.

(Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables below.)

Major Indices — Weekly Performance

Week 42, 17 Oct 2026

Symbol	Index Name	Close (Wk)	Change	Chg %	YTD %
$DJI	Dow Jones	52,002.41	+347.46	+0.67%	+8.20%
$STI	Straits Times	5,415.53	+13.64	+0.25%	+16.56%
$KLCI	KLCI	1,607.76	-0.69	-0.04%	-4.31%
$HSI	Hang Seng	24,186.83	-24.52	-0.10%	-5.63%
$SPX	S&P 500	7,659.44	-152.10	-1.95%	+11.89%
$SSE	Shanghai	3,716.28	-97.51	-2.56%	-6.36%
$RUT	Russell 2000	2,721.37	-85.61	-3.05%	+9.65%
$CSI300	CSI 300	4,170.61	-146.64	-3.40%	-9.92%
$N225	Nikkei 225	65,324.29	-3,706.63	-5.37%	+29.77%
$NDX	Nasdaq 100	29,187.55	-1,695.60	-5.49%	+15.59%

FJ · Market Wrap | sgtraderclub.blogspot.com | Data: S&P Capital IQWeek 42

🇺🇸 United States

Market Overview

U.S. equities posted their worst week since June as an AI-led sell-off hit growth stocks. The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) fell 5.49% and the S&P 500 (SPX) lost 1.95%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose 0.67%. The small-cap Russell 2000 (RUT) declined 3.05%, and the Russell 1000 Value Index beat its growth counterpart by more than 550 basis points as hotter inflation data and the start of third-quarter earnings season reinforced the rotation.

Index Weekly Performance

- Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): +0.67%

- S&P 500 (SPX): -1.95%

- Nasdaq 100 (NDX): -5.49%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ AI Financing Fears Trigger Sell-Off

Semiconductor and memory stocks came under pressure as investors scrutinised financing needs, valuations and returns on AI infrastructure spending. The SOX index fell for eight straight sessions from Oct 7 to Oct 16, and CoreWeave's credit-default swaps hit a record high. Micron and Intel slid further on Friday.

2️⃣ Inflation Surprises to the Upside

September CPI rose 3.7% year over year, above the 3.6% consensus, with core CPI at 2.6% and gasoline prices up 9.1% month over month. Producer prices were hotter still, rising 6.3% year over year versus an expected 5.4%, the largest annual gain since December 2022.

3️⃣ Fed Stays Noncommittal, Yields Retreat

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh offered little clarity on the October meeting, saying the central bank is no longer in the business of prejudging outcomes. CME FedWatch showed roughly a 17% chance of a hike, little changed on the week. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to about 5.09% from 5.24% as tech weakness drew demand for bonds.

4️⃣ Consumer Spending Firm, Labour Steady

September retail sales rose 0.8%, ahead of expectations, though a 6.4% jump in gas station receipts drove much of the gain. Control-group sales rose just 0.1% against an expected 0.3%. Initial jobless claims held at 199,000, the fifth straight reading below 200,000.

5️⃣ Energy and Defensives Take Leadership

Escalating Middle East tensions supported oil prices, giving the energy sector a tailwind. Defensive areas such as consumer staples and health care also gained as investors moved toward quality. Investment-grade bonds advanced, while high yield turned sharply risk-off after Wednesday's CPI report.

6️⃣ Earnings Growth Underpins the Backdrop

Third-quarter S&P 500 earnings growth is expected at about 29%, with 10 of 11 sectors forecast to grow, and the SPX is up 11.89% year to date. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracks 3.6% annualised growth. Most mega-cap tech results fall between Oct 28 and Nov 2, a test of AI spending returns.

S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

Consumer Staples, Energy, Health Care and Materials posted the strongest weekly gains, with Utilities, Financials and Real Estate also finishing higher. Technology was the clear laggard and fell sharply as semiconductor and AI-infrastructure stocks sold off. Industrials, Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services also ended lower. Energy and Technology remain the year-to-date leaders despite the reversal.

(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

S&P 500 Sector ETFs — Weekly Performance
Week 42, 17 Oct 2026
Symbol Sector Close (Wk) Change Chg % YTD %
SPY ★ S&P 500 ETF 763.25 -15.32 -1.97% +11.93%
XLP Consumer Staples 87.62 +4.19 +5.02% +12.80%
XLE Energy 68.24 +3.16 +4.86% +52.63%
XLV Health Care 176.71 +5.90 +3.45% +14.15%
XLB Materials 50.92 +1.49 +3.01% +12.28%
XLU Utilities 42.21 +0.80 +1.93% -1.12%
XLF Financials 55.52 +0.79 +1.44% +1.37%
XLRE Real Estate 42.16 +0.55 +1.32% +4.49%
XLC Comm. Services 110.32 -0.06 -0.05% -6.29%
XLY Consumer Discret. 112.46 -0.39 -0.35% -5.82%
XLI Industrials 167.76 -1.49 -0.88% +8.15%
XLK Technology 183.47 -15.31 -7.70% +27.44%
FJ · Market Wrap | sgtraderclub.blogspot.com | Data: S&P Capital IQWeek 42

Symbol	Sector	Close (Wk)	Change	Chg %	YTD %
SPY ★	S&P 500 ETF	763.25	-15.32	-1.97%	+11.93%
XLP	Consumer Staples	87.62	+4.19	+5.02%	+12.80%
XLE	Energy	68.24	+3.16	+4.86%	+52.63%
XLV	Health Care	176.71	+5.90	+3.45%	+14.15%
XLB	Materials	50.92	+1.49	+3.01%	+12.28%
XLU	Utilities	42.21	+0.80	+1.93%	-1.12%
XLF	Financials	55.52	+0.79	+1.44%	+1.37%
XLRE	Real Estate	42.16	+0.55	+1.32%	+4.49%
XLC	Comm. Services	110.32	-0.06	-0.05%	-6.29%
XLY	Consumer Discret.	112.46	-0.39	-0.35%	-5.82%
XLI	Industrials	167.76	-1.49	-0.88%	+8.15%
XLK	Technology	183.47	-15.31	-7.70%	+27.44%

Technical Snapshot

The SPX closed the week down 1.95% to 7,659.44 , its largest weekly loss since June, while the NDX dropped to 29,187.55, both SPX and NDX fell back into their sideway consolidation weekly range. The DJI index held at 52,002.41, appears on the opposite movement to SPX and NDX, it actually rebounded for 2nd week. With AI-financing worries and the Oct 28 Fed decision ahead, the chart structure remains a sideways consolidation for the SPX, which has traded largely flat since August.

📊 Weekly charts:

- Nasdaq 100 weekly chart

🇨🇳 China / Hong Kong

Market Overview

Chinese equities declined, with mainland markets underperforming Hong Kong as selling in previously strong semiconductor and AI-related shares weighed on benchmarks. The CSI 300 fell 3.40%, the Shanghai Composite (SSE) declined 2.56%, and the Hang Seng Index (HSI) edged down 0.10%. Financials held up better than technology, and mainland shares recovered modestly on Friday on share buybacks, upbeat profit forecasts and gains in property.

(Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables above.)

Index Weekly Performance

- CSI 300: -3.40%

- Shanghai Composite (SSE): -2.56%

- Hang Seng Index (HSI): -0.10%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Chip and AI Shares Drag Markets

Semiconductor and other AI-related shares led the declines on renewed concerns about the scale and returns of AI spending, while stronger U.S. inflation revived interest-rate worries. In Hong Kong, Hua Hong Semiconductor fell 20.73%, Lenovo 14.56% and SMIC 9.11%. Analysts also cited mutual fund redemptions as added pressure.

2️⃣ September Exports Accelerate to Record

Exports rose 36.3% year on year in September, up from 25.0% in August and above forecasts, while imports grew 31.0%. The monthly trade surplus widened to a record USD 133.5 billion. Strong overseas demand for technology-related goods, including semiconductors and data-processing equipment, supported the gain.

3️⃣ Producer Inflation Jumps, Consumer Prices Lag

PPI rose 5.0% year on year in September, the fastest pace since June 2022, as energy and raw material costs climbed. CPI edged up to 0.9% from 0.8%, with core inflation unchanged at 1.0%. The data point to stronger producer-level price pressure without a comparable rise in consumer prices.

4️⃣ Maybank Securities Favours Defensive Resilience

Maybank Securities expects China's growth to stay subdued, with weak consumer demand and limited prospects for broad stimulus. It favours policy beneficiaries Lenovo(992.HK) and Zhongji Innolight (3308.HK), and defensive high-yield names China Mobile(941.HK) and PetroChina(857.HK) . This week, China Mobile and PetroChina gained while Lenovo fell 14.56%.

5️⃣ Healthcare Splits After October Profit-Taking

The Hang Seng Healthcare Index fell 10.6% during 1-15 October, mainly on profit-taking, with Insilico, XtalPi, Akeso and WuXi Biologics the major laggards. This week WuXi Biologics fell 10.49% and WuXi AppTec 5.67%, while BeOne Medicines rose 7.35% and JD Health 6.87%.

Technical Snapshot

The HSI closed at 24,186.83, down 0.10% on the week and 5.63% lower year to date, while the SSE slipped to 3,716.28. Mainland benchmarks underperformed as the CSI 300 lost 3.40%, with semiconductor and AI-linked names leading the weakness and financials holding firmer. With third-quarter GDP and September activity data due on Oct 19, near-term direction will hinge on those figures and on whether AI-related selling eases.

Hang Seng Index Weekly Gainers

48 of 95 Hang Seng Index constituents gained on the week, and two closed unchanged. Consumer and healthcare names led, with Shenzhou International (+7.36%), BeOne Medicines (+7.35%), ANTA Sports (+7.30%), JD Health (+6.87%) and Meituan (+5.87%) topping the list. HSBC added 3.10%, while CCB and ICBC rose 1.34% and 1.20%.

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents' weekly performance table below.)

HSI Constituents — Weekly Gainers
Week 42, 17 Oct 2026
Code Company Close (Wk) Wk % YTD %
HSI ★ HSI ★ 24,186.83 -0.10% -5.63%
2313 Shenzhou Intl 37.34 +7.36% -38.99%
6160 BeOne Medicines 225.00 +7.35% +25.49%
2020 ANTA Sports 77.95 +7.30% -3.23%
6618 JD Health 38.56 +6.87% -30.52%
3690 MeituanHMTD 75.70 +5.87% -26.72%
1099 Sinopharm 15.72 +5.72% -19.14%
9901 New Oriental 48.14 +5.71% +13.97%
241 AliHealth 3.00 +5.07% -40.50%
316 OOIL 160.60 +4.97% +28.07%
27 Galaxy Ent. 33.54 +4.42% -12.47%
2331 Li Ning 13.28 +4.08% -28.87%
1876 Budweiser APAC 6.08 +4.02% -19.89%
291 CR Beer 19.83 +3.66% -24.37%
1519 J&T Global Express 9.30 +3.51% -11.00%
9961 Trip.comHTGD 315.00 +3.48% -43.14%
5 HSBCHSHD 149.70 +3.10% +22.30%
2319 China Mengniu Dairy 18.80 +3.07% +26.09%
1299 AIA Group 73.30 +2.88% -8.26%
1209 CR Mixc 39.68 +2.80% -7.59%
1038 CK Infra 67.95 +2.72% +17.97%
1810 XiaomiHXXD 26.66 +2.70% -32.16%
669 Techtronic 130.80 +2.59% +45.49%
823 Link REIT 38.20 +2.36% +9.96%
9999 NetEase 197.70 +2.17% -7.88%
66 MTR Corp 32.38 +2.08% +8.66%
1109 CR Land 31.06 +2.04% +14.19%
3968 CM Bank 53.25 +2.01% +0.85%
9988 AlibabaHBBD 108.80 +1.68% -23.81%
857 PetroChinaHPCD 9.99 +1.68% +19.27%
2688 ENN Energy 50.15 +1.52% -27.53%
939 CCB 9.87 +1.34% +28.28%
1044 Hengan 19.80 +1.28% -29.03%
267 CITIC 12.87 +1.26% +6.72%
1398 ICBC 7.59 +1.20% +20.67%
3 HK & China Gas 7.21 +1.12% +2.92%
12 Henderson Land 27.20 +1.12% -3.34%
941 China MobileHCMD 80.95 +1.06% -0.92%
2388 BOC Hong Kong 50.15 +0.95% +27.22%
3692 Hansoh 31.74 +0.63% -12.03%
9618 JD.comHJDD 106.10 +0.47% -4.93%
2057 ZTO Express 158.30 +0.44% -2.46%
300 Midea 93.95 +0.32% +10.59%
1928 Sands China 11.49 +0.26% -41.38%
883 CNOOC 23.96 +0.25% +12.49%
6 Power Assets 60.55 +0.25% +9.79%
3988 Bank of ChinaHBND 6.14 +0.24% +37.67%
2015 Li Auto 44.76 +0.22% -30.98%
2 CLP Holdings 77.15 +0.19% +10.85%
1929 Chow Tai Fook 11.18 +0.00% -9.77%
322 Tingyi 12.37 +0.00% +4.92%
FJ · Market Wrap | sgtraderclub.blogspot.com | Data: S&P Capital IQ | Blue code = tradable on SGX as a Singapore Depository ReceiptWeek 42

Code	Company	Close (Wk)	Wk %	YTD %
HSI ★	HSI ★	24,186.83	-0.10%	-5.63%
2313	Shenzhou Intl	37.34	+7.36%	-38.99%
6160	BeOne Medicines	225.00	+7.35%	+25.49%
2020	ANTA Sports	77.95	+7.30%	-3.23%
6618	JD Health	38.56	+6.87%	-30.52%
3690	MeituanHMTD	75.70	+5.87%	-26.72%
1099	Sinopharm	15.72	+5.72%	-19.14%
9901	New Oriental	48.14	+5.71%	+13.97%
241	AliHealth	3.00	+5.07%	-40.50%
316	OOIL	160.60	+4.97%	+28.07%
27	Galaxy Ent.	33.54	+4.42%	-12.47%
2331	Li Ning	13.28	+4.08%	-28.87%
1876	Budweiser APAC	6.08	+4.02%	-19.89%
291	CR Beer	19.83	+3.66%	-24.37%
1519	J&T Global Express	9.30	+3.51%	-11.00%
9961	Trip.comHTGD	315.00	+3.48%	-43.14%
5	HSBCHSHD	149.70	+3.10%	+22.30%
2319	China Mengniu Dairy	18.80	+3.07%	+26.09%
1299	AIA Group	73.30	+2.88%	-8.26%
1209	CR Mixc	39.68	+2.80%	-7.59%
1038	CK Infra	67.95	+2.72%	+17.97%
1810	XiaomiHXXD	26.66	+2.70%	-32.16%
669	Techtronic	130.80	+2.59%	+45.49%
823	Link REIT	38.20	+2.36%	+9.96%
9999	NetEase	197.70	+2.17%	-7.88%
66	MTR Corp	32.38	+2.08%	+8.66%
1109	CR Land	31.06	+2.04%	+14.19%
3968	CM Bank	53.25	+2.01%	+0.85%
9988	AlibabaHBBD	108.80	+1.68%	-23.81%
857	PetroChinaHPCD	9.99	+1.68%	+19.27%
2688	ENN Energy	50.15	+1.52%	-27.53%
939	CCB	9.87	+1.34%	+28.28%
1044	Hengan	19.80	+1.28%	-29.03%
267	CITIC	12.87	+1.26%	+6.72%
1398	ICBC	7.59	+1.20%	+20.67%
3	HK & China Gas	7.21	+1.12%	+2.92%
12	Henderson Land	27.20	+1.12%	-3.34%
941	China MobileHCMD	80.95	+1.06%	-0.92%
2388	BOC Hong Kong	50.15	+0.95%	+27.22%
3692	Hansoh	31.74	+0.63%	-12.03%
9618	JD.comHJDD	106.10	+0.47%	-4.93%
2057	ZTO Express	158.30	+0.44%	-2.46%
300	Midea	93.95	+0.32%	+10.59%
1928	Sands China	11.49	+0.26%	-41.38%
883	CNOOC	23.96	+0.25%	+12.49%
6	Power Assets	60.55	+0.25%	+9.79%
3988	Bank of ChinaHBND	6.14	+0.24%	+37.67%
2015	Li Auto	44.76	+0.22%	-30.98%
2	CLP Holdings	77.15	+0.19%	+10.85%
1929	Chow Tai Fook	11.18	+0.00%	-9.77%
322	Tingyi	12.37	+0.00%	+4.92%

Hang Seng Index Weekly Decliners

45 of 95 constituents declined. Semiconductor and technology hardware names bore the brunt, led by Hua Hong Semiconductor (-20.73%), Lenovo (-14.56%) and SMIC (-9.11%). WuXi Biologics (-10.49%), CATL (-10.30%), China Life (-9.71%) and Weichai Power (-9.15%) also fell sharply, while Tencent lost 1.65%.

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents' weekly performance table below.)

HSI Constituents — Weekly Decliners
Week 42, 17 Oct 2026
Code Company Close (Wk) Wk % YTD %
HSI ★ HSI ★ 24,186.83 -0.10% -5.63%
2618 JD Logistics 10.27 -0.39% -10.07%
836 CR Power 19.83 -0.50% +14.56%
728 China Telecom 4.66 -0.53% -13.54%
868 Xinyi Glass 8.11 -0.67% -1.93%
688 COLI 13.17 -0.75% +7.51%
386 Sinopec 4.50 -0.77% -3.64%
968 Xinyi Solar 1.92 -0.78% -35.35%
175 GeelyHGMD 15.01 -0.79% -16.15%
1997 Wharf REIC 30.46 -0.85% +23.92%
388 HKEX 374.60 -0.85% -8.10%
762 China Unicom 5.62 -0.88% -27.83%
9633 Nongfu Spring 41.20 -1.01% -12.04%
1 CK Hutchison 65.90 -1.13% +24.46%
6690 Haier 20.12 -1.47% -17.13%
1113 CK Asset 44.50 -1.55% +13.17%
16 Sun Hung Kai 107.20 -1.56% +13.20%
700 TencentHTCD 417.80 -1.65% -30.25%
288 WH Group 6.46 -1.97% -25.55%
6862 Haidilao 9.37 -2.14% -34.28%
1093 CSPC Pharma 8.88 -2.26% +5.34%
1211 BYDHYDD 73.75 -2.45% -22.65%
1024 KuaishouHKUD 29.30 -2.66% -54.18%
1177 Sino Biopharm 5.25 -2.96% -15.05%
2899 Zijin Mining 31.96 -2.98% -10.38%
101 Hang Lung Prop. 6.40 -3.25% -25.67%
2318 Ping AnHPAD 50.05 -3.47% -23.18%
1088 China Shenhua 42.54 -3.80% +9.64%
1801 Innovent Bio 89.05 -3.89% +16.79%
9888 BaiduHBUD 79.45 -4.28% -39.58%
2382 Sunny Optical 57.70 -4.63% -11.98%
285 BYD Electronic 22.04 -4.84% -34.48%
3993 CMOC Group 14.61 -5.19% -24.06%
6181 Laopu GoldHLPD 318.60 -5.46% -48.45%
960 Longfor 5.04 -5.61% -41.06%
2359 WuXi AppTec 196.20 -5.67% +98.78%
2600 Aluminum Corp China 7.27 -6.31% -40.26%
9992 Pop MartHPPD 142.20 -6.63% -24.24%
1378 China Hongqiao 19.64 -7.10% -39.79%
981 SMICHSMD 52.40 -9.11% -26.66%
2338 Weichai Power 25.42 -9.15% +34.85%
2628 China Life 23.62 -9.71% -13.73%
3750 CATLHCCD 440.80 -10.30% -12.80%
2269 WuXi Bio 48.20 -10.49% +53.31%
992 Lenovo 28.06 -14.56% +203.02%
1347 Hua Hong Semi 74.95 -20.73% +0.87%
FJ · Market Wrap | sgtraderclub.blogspot.com | Data: S&P Capital IQ | Blue code = tradable on SGX as a Singapore Depository ReceiptWeek 42

Code	Company	Close (Wk)	Wk %	YTD %
HSI ★	HSI ★	24,186.83	-0.10%	-5.63%
2618	JD Logistics	10.27	-0.39%	-10.07%
836	CR Power	19.83	-0.50%	+14.56%
728	China Telecom	4.66	-0.53%	-13.54%
868	Xinyi Glass	8.11	-0.67%	-1.93%
688	COLI	13.17	-0.75%	+7.51%
386	Sinopec	4.50	-0.77%	-3.64%
968	Xinyi Solar	1.92	-0.78%	-35.35%
175	GeelyHGMD	15.01	-0.79%	-16.15%
1997	Wharf REIC	30.46	-0.85%	+23.92%
388	HKEX	374.60	-0.85%	-8.10%
762	China Unicom	5.62	-0.88%	-27.83%
9633	Nongfu Spring	41.20	-1.01%	-12.04%
1	CK Hutchison	65.90	-1.13%	+24.46%
6690	Haier	20.12	-1.47%	-17.13%
1113	CK Asset	44.50	-1.55%	+13.17%
16	Sun Hung Kai	107.20	-1.56%	+13.20%
700	TencentHTCD	417.80	-1.65%	-30.25%
288	WH Group	6.46	-1.97%	-25.55%
6862	Haidilao	9.37	-2.14%	-34.28%
1093	CSPC Pharma	8.88	-2.26%	+5.34%
1211	BYDHYDD	73.75	-2.45%	-22.65%
1024	KuaishouHKUD	29.30	-2.66%	-54.18%
1177	Sino Biopharm	5.25	-2.96%	-15.05%
2899	Zijin Mining	31.96	-2.98%	-10.38%
101	Hang Lung Prop.	6.40	-3.25%	-25.67%
2318	Ping AnHPAD	50.05	-3.47%	-23.18%
1088	China Shenhua	42.54	-3.80%	+9.64%
1801	Innovent Bio	89.05	-3.89%	+16.79%
9888	BaiduHBUD	79.45	-4.28%	-39.58%
2382	Sunny Optical	57.70	-4.63%	-11.98%
285	BYD Electronic	22.04	-4.84%	-34.48%
3993	CMOC Group	14.61	-5.19%	-24.06%
6181	Laopu GoldHLPD	318.60	-5.46%	-48.45%
960	Longfor	5.04	-5.61%	-41.06%
2359	WuXi AppTec	196.20	-5.67%	+98.78%
2600	Aluminum Corp China	7.27	-6.31%	-40.26%
9992	Pop MartHPPD	142.20	-6.63%	-24.24%
1378	China Hongqiao	19.64	-7.10%	-39.79%
981	SMICHSMD	52.40	-9.11%	-26.66%
2338	Weichai Power	25.42	-9.15%	+34.85%
2628	China Life	23.62	-9.71%	-13.73%
3750	CATLHCCD	440.80	-10.30%	-12.80%
2269	WuXi Bio	48.20	-10.49%	+53.31%
992	Lenovo	28.06	-14.56%	+203.02%
1347	Hua Hong Semi	74.95	-20.73%	+0.87%

📊 Weekly charts:

🇸🇬 Singapore

Market Overview

The Straits Times Index (STI) edged up 0.25% as the MAS surprised with a policy hold and bank shares steadied. UOB rose 4.13% and DBS 1.02%, while OCBC was flat. Seatrium, UOL and Keppel led the decliners, and several REITs also weakened.

Index Weekly Performance

- Straits Times Index (STI): +0.25%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ MAS Holds Policy, Raises Growth View

The MAS unexpectedly kept the S$NEER slope at +125 bps per annum despite expectations for slight tightening. Maybank Securities noted that third-quarter GDP grew 5.4%, led by AI-driven manufacturing, trade and construction, and raised its 2026 GDP forecast to 5.6%.

2️⃣ Banks Steady After Recent Weakness

Maybank Securities noted Singapore banks had fallen 5% over six weeks on margin-squeeze and bond mark-to-market fears, but sees the yield impact as manageable and earnings as resilient. It stays positive on the sector, with OCBC the top pick and DBS the top technical pick.

3️⃣ Seatrium, UOL and Keppel Lead Losses

Seatrium fell 7.50%, UOL 4.40% and Keppel 3.99%, while Venture slipped 2.64%. REITs also weakened, including Mapletree PACT (-3.36%) and Keppel DC REIT (-2.82%). Outside the index, one broker attributed CSE Global's sharp drop to contagion from global AI and data-centre demand pessimism rather than company-specific news.

4️⃣ Deluge Debuts as AI-Themed SDRs Launch

Deluge listed on the SGX mainboard after its IPO was 3.86 times subscribed, with the public offer nearly 12 times covered at S$0.60 a share. SGX also launched five AI-themed SDRs on Friday, including TSMC and SK Hynix, tradable in Singapore dollars.

Technical Snapshot

The STI closed at 5,415.53, up 0.25% on the week and 16.56% year to date. Daily closes held in a narrow band between 5,403.50 and 5,430.50, as bank strength offset weakness in several REITs and property names. Immediate technical support around 5362 and resistance at around 5455 for near term, watch STI beyond these levls for clearer direction coming week. Absent a fresh catalyst, the outlook rests on whether the AI-led global sell-off and U.S. yields stabilise, with Singapore's September CPI due on Oct 22.

(Refer to the STI weekly performance table below.)

STI Constituents — Weekly Performance
Week 42, 17 Oct 2026
Code Company Close (Wk) Wk % YTD %
STI ★ STI ★ 5,415.53 +0.25% +16.56%
U11 UOB 41.61 +4.13% +18.68%
D01 DFI Retail USD 3.29 +3.79% -16.71%
BS6 YZJ Ship SGD 5.21 +2.16% +49.71%
H78 HK Land USD 8.25 +1.85% +18.71%
BUOU Frasers L&C Tr 0.89 +1.72% -11.06%
S68 SGX 21.00 +1.30% +23.82%
D05 DBS 74.11 +1.02% +31.49%
U96 Sembcorp Ind 5.92 +0.34% -1.66%
M44U Mapletree Log Tr 1.08 +0.00% -18.18%
O39 OCBC 29.00 +0.00% +46.76%
S63 ST Engineering 10.39 -0.29% +23.40%
C38U CapLand IntCom Tr 2.23 -0.45% -6.69%
J69U Frasers CT 2.06 -0.48% -11.59%
C6L SIA 6.53 -0.61% +2.03%
G13 Genting Sing 0.61 -0.81% -15.86%
C09 CityDev 7.04 -0.85% -12.00%
A17U CapAscendas REIT 2.17 -0.91% -23.32%
Y92 ThaiBev 0.42 -1.16% -7.61%
Z74 Singtel 4.18 -1.42% -8.13%
J36 JMH USD 55.58 -2.03% -18.73%
ME8U Mapletree Ind Tr 1.79 -2.19% -13.94%
9CI CapLand Invest 2.38 -2.46% -12.18%
V03 Venture 15.86 -2.64% +4.76%
AJBU Keppel DC REIT 2.07 -2.82% -8.00%
F34 Wilmar 3.44 -3.10% +11.69%
N2IU Mapletree PACT 1.15 -3.36% -21.77%
BN4 Keppel 10.10 -3.99% -2.42%
S58 SATS 3.58 -4.02% -6.04%
U14 UOL 7.61 -4.40% -12.93%
5E2 Seatrium 1.85 -7.50% -14.35%
FJ · Market Wrap | sgtraderclub.blogspot.com | Data: S&P Capital IQWeek 42

Code	Company	Close (Wk)	Wk %	YTD %
STI ★	STI ★	5,415.53	+0.25%	+16.56%
U11	UOB	41.61	+4.13%	+18.68%
D01	DFI Retail USD	3.29	+3.79%	-16.71%
BS6	YZJ Ship SGD	5.21	+2.16%	+49.71%
H78	HK Land USD	8.25	+1.85%	+18.71%
BUOU	Frasers L&C Tr	0.89	+1.72%	-11.06%
S68	SGX	21.00	+1.30%	+23.82%
D05	DBS	74.11	+1.02%	+31.49%
U96	Sembcorp Ind	5.92	+0.34%	-1.66%
M44U	Mapletree Log Tr	1.08	+0.00%	-18.18%
O39	OCBC	29.00	+0.00%	+46.76%
S63	ST Engineering	10.39	-0.29%	+23.40%
C38U	CapLand IntCom Tr	2.23	-0.45%	-6.69%
J69U	Frasers CT	2.06	-0.48%	-11.59%
C6L	SIA	6.53	-0.61%	+2.03%
G13	Genting Sing	0.61	-0.81%	-15.86%
C09	CityDev	7.04	-0.85%	-12.00%
A17U	CapAscendas REIT	2.17	-0.91%	-23.32%
Y92	ThaiBev	0.42	-1.16%	-7.61%
Z74	Singtel	4.18	-1.42%	-8.13%
J36	JMH USD	55.58	-2.03%	-18.73%
ME8U	Mapletree Ind Tr	1.79	-2.19%	-13.94%
9CI	CapLand Invest	2.38	-2.46%	-12.18%
V03	Venture	15.86	-2.64%	+4.76%
AJBU	Keppel DC REIT	2.07	-2.82%	-8.00%
F34	Wilmar	3.44	-3.10%	+11.69%
N2IU	Mapletree PACT	1.15	-3.36%	-21.77%
BN4	Keppel	10.10	-3.99%	-2.42%
S58	SATS	3.58	-4.02%	-6.04%
U14	UOL	7.61	-4.40%	-12.93%
5E2	Seatrium	1.85	-7.50%	-14.35%

📊 Weekly charts:

📅 Week Ahead (19–23 Oct 2026)

U.S.: Earnings accelerate, with GE Aerospace reporting on Oct 20 before the open, Netflix after the close that day, Meta and Tesla after the close on Oct 21, and Procter & Gamble before the open on Oct 22. September housing starts and permits are due on Oct 20, followed by flash October PMIs and final University of Michigan sentiment on Oct 23. Markets will watch whether tech results ease or deepen AI-financing concerns, and how Treasury yields respond.

China/Hong Kong: China releases third-quarter GDP and September retail sales, industrial production and investment data on Oct 19, with a Reuters poll pointing to growth of about 4.4% year on year. The loan prime rate fixing follows on Oct 20, and the same poll expects rates to be held. Hong Kong traders will watch whether the semiconductor and AI sell-off steadies after the sharp falls in Hua Hong, SMIC and Lenovo.

Singapore/Regional: Singapore releases September CPI on Oct 22, after August headline inflation of 2.3%. UOL and CapitaLand Development preview the 1,268-unit Thomson Reserve from Oct 17, a gauge of new-launch demand after September home sales rose 16% year on year. OCBC reports third-quarter results on Nov 6 and UOB its trading update on Nov 4.

🗓️ Overarching Watchpoint

Whether the AI-led sell-off deepens into Meta and Tesla's results on Oct 21 will set the tone for the Fed's Oct 27-28 meeting, where a rate hike remains possible after hot CPI and PPI prints. A deeper sell-off would extend pressure on Asian semiconductor names, while stabilisation could slow the rotation into defensives.

Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports.

Unfamiliar with a term? See the Glossary.

Yield Shock: Wall Street Climbs, Singapore Banks Slide

noreply@blogger.com (Fan Jun) — Sat, 10 Oct 2026 13:47:24 +0000

For the week of Oct 9, global markets traded on edge as Middle East tensions kept oil prices swinging and bond yields touched multi-decade highs before easing. U.S. stocks finished mixed, with large caps higher and defensive sectors leading, as Fed minutes pointed to further rate hikes and inflation gauges stayed firm. In China, mainland markets reopened from the Golden Week break to a technology selloff, while Hong Kong recovered on a Friday rebound in internet shares. Singapore bore the brunt, with local banks sliding on a downgrade and warnings that higher yields would weigh on third-quarter earnings.

(Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables below.)

Major Indices — Weekly Performance

Week 41, 10 Oct 2026

Symbol	Index Name	Close (Wk)	Change	Chg %	YTD %
$SPX	S&P 500	7,811.54	+88.83	+1.15%	+14.11%
$N225	Nikkei 225	69,030.92	+721.46	+1.06%	+37.13%
$HSI	Hang Seng	24,211.35	+239.06	+1.00%	-5.54%
$DJI	Dow Jones	51,654.95	+477.98	+0.93%	+7.47%
$NDX	Nasdaq 100	30,883.15	+75.22	+0.24%	+22.31%
$SSE	Shanghai	3,813.79	-28.40	-0.74%	-3.91%
$RUT	Russell 2000	2,806.98	-25.91	-0.91%	+13.10%
$CSI300	CSI 300	4,317.25	-40.36	-0.93%	-6.75%
$KLCI	KLCI	1,608.45	-22.42	-1.37%	-4.27%
$STI	Straits Times	5,401.89	-232.93	-4.13%	+16.26%

FJ · Market Wrap | sgtraderclub.blogspot.com | Data: S&P Capital IQWeek 41

🇺🇸 United States

Market Overview

U.S. equities finished the week mixed amid volatility in AI-related stocks, Middle East developments and sharp moves in oil prices and Treasury yields. The S&P 500 (SPX) rose 1.15%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) added 0.93% and the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) gained 0.24%, while the Russell 2000 (RUT) fell 0.91%.

Index Weekly Performance

- Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): +0.93%

- S&P 500 (SPX): +1.15%

- Nasdaq 100 (NDX): +0.24%

Key Highlights and Outlook

🛢️ Hormuz Tensions Whipsaw Oil Prices

Crude fell midweek on news that the International Energy Agency would accelerate a planned reserve release, then rallied Thursday on reports of tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent briefly topped USD 105 per barrel before retreating after President Trump said the U.S. would not attack Iran ahead of November's midterm elections. Fresh attacks reported Friday kept volatility elevated.

🏦 Fed Minutes Point to More Hikes

Minutes from the September meeting, where officials unanimously voted for a 25-basis-point hike, showed most policymakers expected another increase by year-end. Timing remained unclear. Governor Christopher Waller said there is “some flexibility about when those hikes will occur,” while still expecting the Fed to keep raising rates to combat inflation.

📊 Inflation Gauges Stay Hot

The ISM services PMI eased to 54.9 from 55.4, but its prices index rose 1.4 points to 74.0, the highest since July 2022. The New York Fed survey showed year-ahead inflation expectations at 3.9%, the highest since May 2023. Michigan sentiment fell to a five-month low of 46.3, with year-ahead expectations at 4.7%.

💵 Treasury Yields Ease From Multi-Decade Highs

The 10-year and 30-year yields rose to their highest levels since 2002 before retreating on stronger-than-expected auctions, helped by the pledge of no Iran strike before the midterms. Investment-grade corporates outperformed Treasuries for most of the week, with new issues oversubscribed, while high yield was volatile on inflation and oil concerns.

🎂 Bull Market Turns Four, Earnings-Led

The bull market, which began on October 12, 2022, reaches its fourth anniversary with the S&P 500 up 117% (130% including dividends) and 28 record highs this year. About 70% of the gain has come from earnings growth and 30% from valuation expansion. Analysts expect another robust third-quarter earnings season.

⚠️ Mega-Cap Concentration Remains the Key Risk

Roughly 40 cents of every dollar in the S&P 500 sits in its ten largest companies, with about 8 cents in NVIDIA alone. The concentration has been backed by earnings growth, but reliance on a handful of names can amplify volatility if growth expectations disappoint.

S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

Defensives led the S&P 500, with Utilities, Consumer Staples and Energy the strongest sectors. Health Care, Consumer Discretionary and Financials also advanced, while Real Estate and Materials posted smaller gains. Industrials and Technology were the only sectors to decline, and Communication Services was roughly flat. Energy and Technology remain the year's leading sectors.

(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

S&P 500 Sector ETFs — Weekly Performance
Week 41, 10 Oct 2026
Symbol Sector Close (Wk) Change Chg % YTD %
SPY ★ S&P 500 ETF 778.57 +8.93 +1.16% +14.17%
XLU Utilities 41.41 +1.58 +3.97% -3.00%
XLP Consumer Staples 83.43 +2.90 +3.60% +7.40%
XLE Energy 65.08 +2.26 +3.60% +45.56%
XLV Health Care 170.81 +4.63 +2.79% +10.34%
XLY Consumer Discret. 112.85 +2.81 +2.55% -5.49%
XLF Financials 54.73 +1.24 +2.32% -0.07%
XLRE Real Estate 41.61 +0.80 +1.96% +3.12%
XLB Materials 49.43 +0.57 +1.17% +9.00%
XLC Comm. Services 110.38 +0.06 +0.05% -6.24%
XLI Industrials 169.25 -0.70 -0.41% +9.11%
XLK Technology 198.78 -1.03 -0.52% +38.07%
FJ · Market Wrap | sgtraderclub.blogspot.com | Data: S&P Capital IQWeek 41

Symbol	Sector	Close (Wk)	Change	Chg %	YTD %
SPY ★	S&P 500 ETF	778.57	+8.93	+1.16%	+14.17%
XLU	Utilities	41.41	+1.58	+3.97%	-3.00%
XLP	Consumer Staples	83.43	+2.90	+3.60%	+7.40%
XLE	Energy	65.08	+2.26	+3.60%	+45.56%
XLV	Health Care	170.81	+4.63	+2.79%	+10.34%
XLY	Consumer Discret.	112.85	+2.81	+2.55%	-5.49%
XLF	Financials	54.73	+1.24	+2.32%	-0.07%
XLRE	Real Estate	41.61	+0.80	+1.96%	+3.12%
XLB	Materials	49.43	+0.57	+1.17%	+9.00%
XLC	Comm. Services	110.38	+0.06	+0.05%	-6.24%
XLI	Industrials	169.25	-0.70	-0.41%	+9.11%
XLK	Technology	198.78	-1.03	-0.52%	+38.07%

Technical Snapshot

The S&P 500 closed at 7,811.54, a record close, after touching an intraday record of 7,844.52 on October 6, while the Dow ended at 51,654.95. Consumer Discretionary remains negative year to date, one reason some chartists are looking beyond it for leadership as earnings season starts. The weekly chart structure remains an uptrend at record highs, and a renewed climb in Treasury yields is the main risk to that trend.

🇨🇳 China / Hong Kong

Market Overview

Chinese equities diverged in a holiday-shortened week. The CSI 300 (CSI300) fell 0.93% and the Shanghai Composite (SSE) declined 0.74% from their September 30 closes, while the Hang Seng Index (HSI) rose 1.00%. Mainland exchanges reopened Thursday after the National Day Golden Week closure, and Hong Kong recovered on a Friday rebound in internet and technology stocks.

(Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables above.)

Index Weekly Performance

- CSI 300 (CSI300): -0.93%

- Shanghai Composite (SSE): -0.74%

- Hang Seng Index (HSI): +1.00%

Key Highlights and Outlook

📉 Mainland Tech Sells Off After Holiday

On reopening Thursday, the STAR 50 plunged 4.8% as rising global yields and oil prices pressured growth stocks. Semiconductors, AI hardware and optical communications led losses, with renewed worries over possible U.S. restrictions on Chinese optical transceivers adding pressure. Mainland benchmarks rebounded Friday afternoon, led by media and entertainment, on a sharp rise in volumes in broad-market ETFs.

🔄 Hong Kong Recovers on Friday Rebound

Energy shares benefited from higher oil prices early in the week. A sharp Friday rebound in internet and technology stocks, alongside easing oil prices, then lifted the Hang Seng into positive territory for the week.

🧳 Golden Week Travel Up, Spending Cautious

The seven-day holiday saw 826 million domestic trips, up 6.3% year on year, generating RMB 738.4 billion in tourism revenue, up 4.3%, on a comparable daily-average basis. Spending growth lagging visitor numbers, alongside weaker holiday box office receipts, points to uneven household demand rather than a broad-based consumption recovery.

🤖 Favour AI Enablers Over Frontier Models

Moonshot AI's reported USD 50 billion IPO valuation target highlights strong enthusiasm for China AI, but Maybank Securities stays cautious on frontier-model developers given heavy funding needs and dilution risk. It prefers AI infrastructure beneficiaries: ASMPT on advanced packaging demand, NetEase on a potential Ananta launch, and GDS after the planned DayOne IPO.

🛡️ China Life Offers Yield After Correction

Maybank Securities also sees opportunity in China Life Insurance following its recent share-price correction, citing an attractive dividend yield and a likely lift to investment income and sentiment if China's equity market stabilises. The stock fell 4.87% this week.

Technical Snapshot

The HSI closed the week at 24,211.35, up 1.00%, while the SSE ended at 3,813.79 after the tech-led losses on reopening. The HSI reclaimed the 24,000 level, its first weekly gain after a four-week losing streak. The SSE has been consolidating in the 3,750 to 4,000 range.

Hang Seng Index Weekly Gainers

70 of the 95 Hang Seng Index constituents gained on the week. Tingyi (+7.29%), Xiaomi (+7.10%) and OOIL (+6.47%) led the index.

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents' weekly performance table below.)

HSI Constituents — Weekly Gainers
Week 41, 10 Oct 2026
Code Company Close (Wk) Wk % YTD %
HSI ★ HSI ★ 24,211.35 +1.00% -5.54%
322 Tingyi 12.37 +7.29% +4.92%
1810 XiaomiHXXD 25.96 +7.10% -33.94%
316 OOIL 153.00 +6.47% +22.01%
2618 JD Logistics 10.31 +6.45% -9.72%
1519 J&T Global Express 8.98 +6.21% -14.02%
27 Galaxy Ent. 32.12 +6.01% -16.18%
9901 New Oriental 45.54 +5.66% +7.81%
728 China Telecom 4.68 +5.28% -13.08%
9633 Nongfu Spring 41.62 +5.26% -11.14%
2015 Li Auto 44.66 +4.79% -31.13%
762 China Unicom 5.67 +4.42% -27.19%
6618 JD Health 36.08 +4.16% -34.99%
386 Sinopec 4.54 +4.13% -2.89%
6862 Haidilao 9.57 +4.08% -32.84%
9999 NetEase 193.50 +3.92% -9.83%
2899 Zijin Mining 32.94 +3.91% -7.63%
2331 Li Ning 12.76 +3.91% -31.66%
1209 CR Mixc 38.60 +3.82% -10.11%
2319 China Mengniu Dairy 18.24 +3.75% +22.33%
688 COLI 13.27 +3.75% +8.33%
291 CR Beer 19.13 +3.63% -27.04%
12 Henderson Land 26.90 +3.54% -4.41%
1109 CR Land 30.44 +3.47% +11.91%
3988 Bank of ChinaHBND 6.12 +3.46% +37.33%
857 PetroChinaHPCD 9.83 +3.31% +17.30%
3993 CMOC Group 15.41 +3.22% -19.91%
968 Xinyi Solar 1.94 +3.20% -34.85%
3968 CM Bank 52.20 +3.16% -1.14%
2057 ZTO Express 157.60 +3.07% -2.90%
3750 CATL 491.40 +3.06% -2.79%
1876 Budweiser APAC 5.84 +3.00% -22.99%
6181 Laopu Gold 337.00 +3.00% -45.47%
1299 AIA Group 71.25 +2.96% -10.83%
1929 Chow Tai Fook 11.18 +2.95% -9.77%
285 BYD Electronic 23.16 +2.75% -31.15%
300 Midea 93.65 +2.74% +10.24%
16 Sun Hung Kai 108.90 +2.74% +14.99%
175 GeelyHGMD 15.13 +2.65% -15.47%
868 Xinyi Glass 8.16 +2.64% -1.27%
9618 JD.comHJDD 105.60 +2.62% -5.38%
836 CR Power 19.93 +2.52% +15.14%
9988 AlibabaHBBD 107.00 +2.49% -25.07%
1997 Wharf REIC 30.72 +2.47% +24.98%
823 Link REIT 37.32 +2.41% +7.43%
2313 Shenzhou Intl 34.78 +2.35% -43.17%
1211 BYDHYDD 75.60 +2.30% -20.71%
101 Hang Lung Prop. 6.62 +2.16% -23.17%
9992 Pop MartHPPD 152.30 +2.08% -18.86%
1038 CK Infra 66.15 +1.93% +14.84%
1088 China Shenhua 44.22 +1.89% +13.97%
939 CCB 9.73 +1.88% +26.59%
3690 MeituanHMTD 71.50 +1.85% -30.78%
2600 Aluminum Corp China 7.76 +1.84% -36.24%
6 Power Assets 60.40 +1.77% +9.52%
1024 KuaishouHKUD 30.10 +1.76% -52.93%
6690 Haier 20.42 +1.69% -15.90%
2 CLP Holdings 77.00 +1.65% +10.63%
883 CNOOC 23.90 +1.62% +12.21%
2688 ENN Energy 49.40 +1.60% -28.61%
241 AliHealth 2.86 +1.60% -43.37%
941 China MobileHCMD 80.10 +1.59% -1.96%
3 HK & China Gas 7.13 +1.28% +1.78%
1099 Sinopharm 14.87 +0.95% -23.51%
700 TencentHTCD 424.80 +0.85% -29.08%
1928 Sands China 11.46 +0.70% -41.53%
9961 Trip.comHTGD 304.40 +0.66% -45.05%
1398 ICBC 7.50 +0.60% +19.24%
388 HKEX 377.80 +0.53% -7.31%
1044 Hengan 19.55 +0.26% -29.93%
66 MTR Corp 31.72 +0.13% +6.44%
FJ · Market Wrap | sgtraderclub.blogspot.com | Data: S&P Capital IQ | Blue code = tradable on SGX as a Singapore Depository ReceiptWeek 41

Code	Company	Close (Wk)	Wk %	YTD %
HSI ★	HSI ★	24,211.35	+1.00%	-5.54%
322	Tingyi	12.37	+7.29%	+4.92%
1810	XiaomiHXXD	25.96	+7.10%	-33.94%
316	OOIL	153.00	+6.47%	+22.01%
2618	JD Logistics	10.31	+6.45%	-9.72%
1519	J&T Global Express	8.98	+6.21%	-14.02%
27	Galaxy Ent.	32.12	+6.01%	-16.18%
9901	New Oriental	45.54	+5.66%	+7.81%
728	China Telecom	4.68	+5.28%	-13.08%
9633	Nongfu Spring	41.62	+5.26%	-11.14%
2015	Li Auto	44.66	+4.79%	-31.13%
762	China Unicom	5.67	+4.42%	-27.19%
6618	JD Health	36.08	+4.16%	-34.99%
386	Sinopec	4.54	+4.13%	-2.89%
6862	Haidilao	9.57	+4.08%	-32.84%
9999	NetEase	193.50	+3.92%	-9.83%
2899	Zijin Mining	32.94	+3.91%	-7.63%
2331	Li Ning	12.76	+3.91%	-31.66%
1209	CR Mixc	38.60	+3.82%	-10.11%
2319	China Mengniu Dairy	18.24	+3.75%	+22.33%
688	COLI	13.27	+3.75%	+8.33%
291	CR Beer	19.13	+3.63%	-27.04%
12	Henderson Land	26.90	+3.54%	-4.41%
1109	CR Land	30.44	+3.47%	+11.91%
3988	Bank of ChinaHBND	6.12	+3.46%	+37.33%
857	PetroChinaHPCD	9.83	+3.31%	+17.30%
3993	CMOC Group	15.41	+3.22%	-19.91%
968	Xinyi Solar	1.94	+3.20%	-34.85%
3968	CM Bank	52.20	+3.16%	-1.14%
2057	ZTO Express	157.60	+3.07%	-2.90%
3750	CATL	491.40	+3.06%	-2.79%
1876	Budweiser APAC	5.84	+3.00%	-22.99%
6181	Laopu Gold	337.00	+3.00%	-45.47%
1299	AIA Group	71.25	+2.96%	-10.83%
1929	Chow Tai Fook	11.18	+2.95%	-9.77%
285	BYD Electronic	23.16	+2.75%	-31.15%
300	Midea	93.65	+2.74%	+10.24%
16	Sun Hung Kai	108.90	+2.74%	+14.99%
175	GeelyHGMD	15.13	+2.65%	-15.47%
868	Xinyi Glass	8.16	+2.64%	-1.27%
9618	JD.comHJDD	105.60	+2.62%	-5.38%
836	CR Power	19.93	+2.52%	+15.14%
9988	AlibabaHBBD	107.00	+2.49%	-25.07%
1997	Wharf REIC	30.72	+2.47%	+24.98%
823	Link REIT	37.32	+2.41%	+7.43%
2313	Shenzhou Intl	34.78	+2.35%	-43.17%
1211	BYDHYDD	75.60	+2.30%	-20.71%
101	Hang Lung Prop.	6.62	+2.16%	-23.17%
9992	Pop MartHPPD	152.30	+2.08%	-18.86%
1038	CK Infra	66.15	+1.93%	+14.84%
1088	China Shenhua	44.22	+1.89%	+13.97%
939	CCB	9.73	+1.88%	+26.59%
3690	MeituanHMTD	71.50	+1.85%	-30.78%
2600	Aluminum Corp China	7.76	+1.84%	-36.24%
6	Power Assets	60.40	+1.77%	+9.52%
1024	KuaishouHKUD	30.10	+1.76%	-52.93%
6690	Haier	20.42	+1.69%	-15.90%
2	CLP Holdings	77.00	+1.65%	+10.63%
883	CNOOC	23.90	+1.62%	+12.21%
2688	ENN Energy	49.40	+1.60%	-28.61%
241	AliHealth	2.86	+1.60%	-43.37%
941	China MobileHCMD	80.10	+1.59%	-1.96%
3	HK & China Gas	7.13	+1.28%	+1.78%
1099	Sinopharm	14.87	+0.95%	-23.51%
700	TencentHTCD	424.80	+0.85%	-29.08%
1928	Sands China	11.46	+0.70%	-41.53%
9961	Trip.comHTGD	304.40	+0.66%	-45.05%
1398	ICBC	7.50	+0.60%	+19.24%
388	HKEX	377.80	+0.53%	-7.31%
1044	Hengan	19.55	+0.26%	-29.93%
66	MTR Corp	31.72	+0.13%	+6.44%

Hang Seng Index Weekly Decliners

25 of the 95 Hang Seng Index constituents declined on the week. Chip and pharma names weighed on the index. Hua Hong Semiconductor (-10.38%) was the biggest decliner.

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents' weekly performance table below.)

HSI Constituents — Weekly Decliners
Week 41, 10 Oct 2026
Code Company Close (Wk) Wk % YTD %
HSI ★ HSI ★ 24,211.35 +1.00% -5.54%
1378 China Hongqiao 21.14 -0.09% -35.19%
9888 BaiduHBUD 83.00 -0.24% -36.88%
2318 Ping AnHPAD 51.85 -0.29% -20.41%
267 CITIC 12.71 -0.47% +5.39%
288 WH Group 6.58 -0.68% -24.05%
1 CK Hutchison 66.65 -0.89% +25.87%
669 Techtronic 127.50 -0.93% +41.82%
2359 WuXi AppTec 208.00 -0.95% +110.74%
6160 BeOne Medicines 209.60 -1.23% +16.90%
2269 WuXi Bio 53.85 -1.28% +71.28%
1113 CK Asset 45.20 -1.53% +14.95%
2388 BOC Hong Kong 49.68 -2.01% +26.03%
2020 ANTA Sports 72.65 -2.02% -9.81%
960 Longfor 5.34 -2.20% -37.56%
2382 Sunny Optical 60.50 -2.50% -7.70%
5 HSBCHSHD 145.20 -2.88% +18.63%
1177 Sino Biopharm 5.41 -3.05% -12.46%
1801 Innovent Bio 92.65 -3.74% +21.51%
2338 Weichai Power 27.98 -3.91% +48.44%
992 Lenovo 32.84 -4.31% +254.64%
981 SMICHSMD 57.65 -4.32% -19.31%
2628 China Life 26.16 -4.87% -4.46%
3692 Hansoh 31.54 -7.62% -12.58%
1093 CSPC Pharma 9.09 -8.51% +7.77%
1347 Hua Hong Semi 94.55 -10.38% +27.25%
FJ · Market Wrap | sgtraderclub.blogspot.com | Data: S&P Capital IQ | Blue code = tradable on SGX as a Singapore Depository ReceiptWeek 41

Code	Company	Close (Wk)	Wk %	YTD %
HSI ★	HSI ★	24,211.35	+1.00%	-5.54%
1378	China Hongqiao	21.14	-0.09%	-35.19%
9888	BaiduHBUD	83.00	-0.24%	-36.88%
2318	Ping AnHPAD	51.85	-0.29%	-20.41%
267	CITIC	12.71	-0.47%	+5.39%
288	WH Group	6.58	-0.68%	-24.05%
1	CK Hutchison	66.65	-0.89%	+25.87%
669	Techtronic	127.50	-0.93%	+41.82%
2359	WuXi AppTec	208.00	-0.95%	+110.74%
6160	BeOne Medicines	209.60	-1.23%	+16.90%
2269	WuXi Bio	53.85	-1.28%	+71.28%
1113	CK Asset	45.20	-1.53%	+14.95%
2388	BOC Hong Kong	49.68	-2.01%	+26.03%
2020	ANTA Sports	72.65	-2.02%	-9.81%
960	Longfor	5.34	-2.20%	-37.56%
2382	Sunny Optical	60.50	-2.50%	-7.70%
5	HSBCHSHD	145.20	-2.88%	+18.63%
1177	Sino Biopharm	5.41	-3.05%	-12.46%
1801	Innovent Bio	92.65	-3.74%	+21.51%
2338	Weichai Power	27.98	-3.91%	+48.44%
992	Lenovo	32.84	-4.31%	+254.64%
981	SMICHSMD	57.65	-4.32%	-19.31%
2628	China Life	26.16	-4.87%	-4.46%
3692	Hansoh	31.54	-7.62%	-12.58%
1093	CSPC Pharma	9.09	-8.51%	+7.77%
1347	Hua Hong Semi	94.55	-10.38%	+27.25%

🇸🇬 Singapore

Market Overview

The Straits Times Index (STI) fell 4.13% as the three local banks sold off sharply. Analysts warned that surging long bond yields would hurt third-quarter earnings for Southeast Asian lenders, and OCBC was downgraded to sell. The banks were the biggest drags on the index, which was Asia's worst-performing benchmark on Thursday.

Index Weekly Performance

- Straits Times Index (STI): -4.13%

Key Highlights and Outlook

🏦 Banks Slide on Yield and Margin Worries

OCBC fell 8.40%, UOB 7.31% and DBS 4.99%. Warnings that surging long bond yields would hurt third-quarter earnings, and OCBC's downgrade to sell on expected margin compression from higher SGD fixed-deposit rates, drove the sell-off. Views diverged: one house urges trimming OCBC and DBS into results while preferring UOB, while another rates DBS a buy.

🛡️ Only Eight of 30 Constituents Advanced

Fourteen names declined and eight were unchanged, five of them REITs. JMH (+2.47%), Wilmar (+2.31%) and DFI Retail (+2.26%) led the gainers, followed by Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (+1.59%).

⚙️ Industrials Hit; Seatrium Wins FSRU Deal

ST Engineering (-5.01%) and Keppel (-4.71%) were among the sharpest decliners. Seatrium (-1.48%) slipped despite securing a full-scope EPCIC FSRU conversion contract from Excelerate Energy, with an option for a second.

📡 Telco Consolidation and Repricing

StarHub is buying MyRepublic's mobile business, a deal viewed as earnings accretive ahead of further industry consolidation. Bharti Airtel's postpaid price hikes could lift Singtel's FY27 underlying NPAT by about 1.5% on an annualised basis. Singtel slipped 0.24%.

Technical Snapshot

The STI closed at 5,401.89, down 4.13% on the week but still up 16.26% year to date. The MSCI Singapore Index broke below 520 support and tested the 500 psychological level, with technical sell signals flagged on DBS, OCBC and UOB. Immediate support for the STI is at 5,400, with major support around 5,200, the level of its 200-day moving average. Some strategists see the bank-led pullback opening a window for the rally to broaden.

(Refer to the STI weekly performance table below.)

STI Constituents — Weekly Performance
Week 41, 10 Oct 2026
Code Company Close (Wk) Wk % YTD %
STI ★ STI ★ 5,401.89 -4.13% +16.26%
J36 JMH USD 56.73 +2.47% -17.05%
F34 Wilmar 3.55 +2.31% +15.26%
D01 DFI Retail USD 3.17 +2.26% -19.75%
BS6 YZJ Ship SGD 5.10 +1.59% +46.55%
U96 Sembcorp Ind 5.90 +1.03% -1.99%
C09 CityDev 7.10 +0.85% -11.25%
H78 HK Land USD 8.10 +0.62% +16.55%
BUOU Frasers L&C Tr 0.87 +0.58% -12.56%
C38U CapLand IntCom Tr 2.24 +0.00% -6.28%
J69U Frasers CT 2.07 +0.00% -11.16%
G13 Genting Sing 0.61 +0.00% -15.17%
AJBU Keppel DC REIT 2.13 +0.00% -5.33%
ME8U Mapletree Ind Tr 1.83 +0.00% -12.02%
N2IU Mapletree PACT 1.19 +0.00% -19.05%
S58 SATS 3.73 +0.00% -2.10%
Y92 ThaiBev 0.43 +0.00% -6.52%
Z74 Singtel 4.24 -0.24% -6.81%
V03 Venture 16.29 -0.79% +7.60%
U14 UOL 7.96 -0.87% -8.92%
M44U Mapletree Log Tr 1.08 -0.92% -18.18%
9CI CapLand Invest 2.44 -1.21% -9.96%
S68 SGX 20.73 -1.24% +22.23%
C6L SIA 6.57 -1.35% +2.66%
A17U CapAscendas REIT 2.19 -1.35% -22.61%
5E2 Seatrium 2.00 -1.48% -7.41%
BN4 Keppel 10.52 -4.71% +1.64%
D05 DBS 73.36 -4.99% +30.16%
S63 ST Engineering 10.42 -5.01% +23.75%
U11 UOB 39.96 -7.31% +13.98%
O39 OCBC 29.00 -8.40% +46.76%
FJ · Market Wrap | sgtraderclub.blogspot.com | Data: S&P Capital IQWeek 41

Code	Company	Close (Wk)	Wk %	YTD %
STI ★	STI ★	5,401.89	-4.13%	+16.26%
J36	JMH USD	56.73	+2.47%	-17.05%
F34	Wilmar	3.55	+2.31%	+15.26%
D01	DFI Retail USD	3.17	+2.26%	-19.75%
BS6	YZJ Ship SGD	5.10	+1.59%	+46.55%
U96	Sembcorp Ind	5.90	+1.03%	-1.99%
C09	CityDev	7.10	+0.85%	-11.25%
H78	HK Land USD	8.10	+0.62%	+16.55%
BUOU	Frasers L&C Tr	0.87	+0.58%	-12.56%
C38U	CapLand IntCom Tr	2.24	+0.00%	-6.28%
J69U	Frasers CT	2.07	+0.00%	-11.16%
G13	Genting Sing	0.61	+0.00%	-15.17%
AJBU	Keppel DC REIT	2.13	+0.00%	-5.33%
ME8U	Mapletree Ind Tr	1.83	+0.00%	-12.02%
N2IU	Mapletree PACT	1.19	+0.00%	-19.05%
S58	SATS	3.73	+0.00%	-2.10%
Y92	ThaiBev	0.43	+0.00%	-6.52%
Z74	Singtel	4.24	-0.24%	-6.81%
V03	Venture	16.29	-0.79%	+7.60%
U14	UOL	7.96	-0.87%	-8.92%
M44U	Mapletree Log Tr	1.08	-0.92%	-18.18%
9CI	CapLand Invest	2.44	-1.21%	-9.96%
S68	SGX	20.73	-1.24%	+22.23%
C6L	SIA	6.57	-1.35%	+2.66%
A17U	CapAscendas REIT	2.19	-1.35%	-22.61%
5E2	Seatrium	2.00	-1.48%	-7.41%
BN4	Keppel	10.52	-4.71%	+1.64%
D05	DBS	73.36	-4.99%	+30.16%
S63	ST Engineering	10.42	-5.01%	+23.75%
U11	UOB	39.96	-7.31%	+13.98%
O39	OCBC	29.00	-8.40%	+46.76%

📅 Week Ahead (12–16 Oct 2026)

U.S. bond markets are closed Monday for Columbus Day. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Citigroup open third-quarter earnings season on Tuesday, followed by September CPI on Wednesday and PPI and retail sales on Thursday. Watch how Treasury yields react to the inflation data after this week’s retreat from multi-decade highs.

China’s September CPI and PPI are due Wednesday at 9:30 a.m. Beijing time. Further out, third-quarter GDP is scheduled for October 19, followed by the fifth plenum of the 20th Communist Party Central Committee on October 26 to 29.

Singapore releases advance third-quarter GDP estimates and the MAS Monetary Policy Statement on Wednesday at 8:00 a.m. After this week’s rout, investors will look for stabilisation in the banks ahead of third-quarter results from UOB (November 4), DBS (November 5) and OCBC (November 6).

🗓️ Overarching Watchpoint

The biggest binary risk is Wednesday’s U.S. inflation print. A hot September CPI that sends long-dated Treasury yields back toward their 2002-era highs would pressure growth stocks and yield-sensitive regional banks, while a softer reading would extend this week’s retreat in yields.

Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports.

Unfamiliar with a term? See the Glossary.

Yields Surge, Jobs Stumble: Resilience Holds the Line

noreply@blogger.com (Fan Jun) — Sat, 03 Oct 2026 13:39:16 +0000

For the week of Oct 2, global equities were caught between a soft U.S. jobs report and Treasury yields at multi-decade highs. In the U.S., tech-led gains in the Nasdaq offset losses in the large-cap benchmarks as the payrolls miss cooled rate-hike expectations. In China/HK, thin liquidity and an AI-hardware selloff kept investors defensive around the National Day holiday, with Hong Kong absorbing the brunt on its first session back. In Singapore, a heavyweight property reset and weakness in the banks and SGX dragged the STI lower.

(Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables below.)

Major Indices — Weekly Performance

Week 40, 02 Oct 2026

Symbol	Index Name	Close (Wk)	Change	Chg %	YTD %
$COMP	Nasdaq	27,190.86	+122.15	+0.45%	+16.99%
$SPX	S&P 500	7,722.72	-20.70	-0.27%	+12.81%
$SSE	Shanghai	3,842.19	-46.18	-1.19%	-3.19%
$DJI	Dow Jones	51,176.96	-651.66	-1.26%	+6.48%
$STI	Straits Times	5,634.82	-76.29	-1.34%	+21.28%
$HSI	Hang Seng	23,972.29	-537.80	-2.19%	-6.47%
$KLCI	KLCI	1,630.87	-40.75	-2.44%	-2.93%

SgTraderClub.blogspot.com | Data: S&P Capital IQWeek 40

🇺🇸 United States

Market Overview

U.S. equities finished mixed as a weaker-than-expected September jobs report and fading rate-hike expectations competed with elevated Treasury yields, volatile oil, and U.S.-Iran uncertainty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell 1.26% and the S&P 500 (SPX) slipped 0.27%, while the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) gained 0.45%. Long-term Treasury yields touched multi-decade highs before retreating later in the week.

Index Weekly Performance

- Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): -1.26%

- S&P 500 (SPX): -0.27%

- Nasdaq Composite (COMP): +0.45%

Monthly Performance (September 2026)

September was a split month. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) gained 1.86%, while the S&P 500 (SPX) slipped 0.45% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell 4.29%, as the Fed's rate hike and multi-decade-high long-term yields weighed on the broader market and leadership stayed narrow. Year to date, COMP leads at +15.57%, ahead of SPX at +11.77% and DJI at +5.91%.

(Refer to the major indices' monthly performance table below.)

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Payrolls Miss Cools October Hike Bets

The U.S. economy added just 29,000 jobs in September versus consensus near 90,000, and July and August were revised down by a combined 60,000. Unemployment rose to 4.2%. Stock futures rose and yields fell on the release, while CME FedWatch pricing for an October hike dropped.

2️⃣ Yields Spike, Then Retreat

A global bond selloff pushed long-term Treasury yields to multi-decade highs before reversing late in the week, lifting the S&P 500 off a two-week low. History offers some comfort: since 1990, the S&P 500 rose over the following six months in four of five episodes when both 2-year and 10-year yields jumped 50bp or more in a month.

3️⃣ Core PCE Steady, Trend Improving

Core PCE rose 0.2% in August and 3.0% YoY, unchanged from July. The three-month annualized rate slowed to 2.0%, the Fed's target for the first time in over two years. Annual revisions also lowered 2026's average core inflation to 3.0% from 3.3%, though policymakers still view 3.0% as uncomfortably high.

4️⃣ GDP Revision and ISM Underscore Resilience

Q2 GDP growth was revised up to 2.2% annualized from 1.5%, with underlying private demand growing at 4.6%. The ISM Manufacturing PMI held at 54.5, a ninth straight month of expansion, though the prices index jumped 6.8 points to 77.9, its highest since May, keeping input-cost pressure in focus.

5️⃣ Oil and Iran Keep Energy Bid

Oil prices jumped more than $3 on Thursday after China suspended oil product exports, with few signs that diplomacy to end the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran was gaining traction. Energy was among the week's strongest sectors, while elevated fuel costs add to the inflation concerns policymakers are weighing.

6️⃣ AI Spending Anchors Earnings

AI-related investment continued to underpin growth, with S&P 500 earnings expected to rise more than 30% this year. TSMC is weighing a new Texas campus, and Tencent signed its largest overseas lease with Oracle for roughly 100,000 AI chips. Technology led the sector scoreboard.

S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

Technology led the S&P 500 sectors, followed by Energy and Utilities, the only three sectors to finish in positive territory. Technology benefitted from continued AI investment momentum, while Energy tracked firmer oil. Health Care was the weakest sector, followed by Financials and Communication Services, with defensives such as Consumer Staples and Real Estate also lagging.

(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

S&P 500 Sector ETFs — Weekly Performance
Week 40, 02 Oct 2026
Symbol Sector Close (Wk) Change Chg % YTD %
SPY ★ S&P 500 ETF 769.64 -1.71 -0.22% +12.86%
XLK Technology 199.81 +3.54 +1.80% +38.79%
XLE Energy 62.82 +0.78 +1.26% +40.51%
XLU Utilities 39.83 +0.32 +0.81% -6.70%
XLI Industrials 169.95 -0.48 -0.28% +9.56%
XLY Consumer Discret. 110.04 -0.52 -0.47% -7.85%
XLRE Real Estate 40.81 -0.75 -1.80% +1.14%
XLP Consumer Staples 80.53 -1.53 -1.86% +3.67%
XLB Materials 48.86 -0.94 -1.89% +7.74%
XLC Comm. Services 110.32 -2.64 -2.34% -6.29%
XLF Financials 53.49 -1.35 -2.46% -2.34%
XLV Health Care 166.18 -4.52 -2.65% +7.35%
SgTraderClub.blogspot.com | Data: S&P Capital IQWeek 40

Symbol	Sector	Close (Wk)	Change	Chg %	YTD %
SPY ★	S&P 500 ETF	769.64	-1.71	-0.22%	+12.86%
XLK	Technology	199.81	+3.54	+1.80%	+38.79%
XLE	Energy	62.82	+0.78	+1.26%	+40.51%
XLU	Utilities	39.83	+0.32	+0.81%	-6.70%
XLI	Industrials	169.95	-0.48	-0.28%	+9.56%
XLY	Consumer Discret.	110.04	-0.52	-0.47%	-7.85%
XLRE	Real Estate	40.81	-0.75	-1.80%	+1.14%
XLP	Consumer Staples	80.53	-1.53	-1.86%	+3.67%
XLB	Materials	48.86	-0.94	-1.89%	+7.74%
XLC	Comm. Services	110.32	-2.64	-2.34%	-6.29%
XLF	Financials	53.49	-1.35	-2.46%	-2.34%
XLV	Health Care	166.18	-4.52	-2.65%	+7.35%

Technical Snapshot

The S&P 500 (SPX) bounced from a two-week low on Friday and finished near 7,720, while the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) held above 27,000 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) closed above 51,000. Leadership remained narrow, with technology doing the heavy lifting beneath a mixed broader tape. Chart structure remains sideways consolidation across SPX and COMP, while DJI has been in retracement down mode, adging lower for the past five weeks or so, leaving the next directional break dependent on yields and the Fed minutes.

📊 Weekly charts:

🇨🇳 China / Hong Kong

Market Overview

China/HK equities fell as thin holiday liquidity and a tech-led selloff weighed on sentiment. The Shanghai Composite (SSE) lost 1.19% and the Hang Seng Index (HSI) fell 2.19%. Mainland markets closed from 1 October for the National Day holiday, leaving Hong Kong to trade alone on Friday.

(Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables above.)

Index Weekly Performance

- CSI 300: -1.84%

- Shanghai Composite (SSE): -1.19%

- Hang Seng Index (HSI): -2.19%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Holiday Liquidity Keeps Investors Defensive

Trading is likely to stay subdued through the National Day holiday, and Maybank Securities adopts a more defensive stance on China/HK equities. Rising global bond yields reinforce its preference for banks, notably BOC Hong Kong and HSBC, given resilient net interest income and attractive dividend yields.

2️⃣ AI Hardware Selloff Hits A-Shares

The CSI 300 fell 2.2% on Monday to its lowest since August 2025 after U.S. legislation targeting Chinese-made AI data-centre components hit technology shares, while fading Xi-Trump summit optimism added to risk reduction. Optical names such as Eoptolink and Innolight sank, and the Shanghai Composite dropped 1.67%.

3️⃣ PMI Returns to Expansion

September manufacturing PMI returned to expansion at 50.1, in line with consensus but output-led as new orders dipped, while non-manufacturing PMI beat expectations at 50.2 as construction rebounded. Widening price gaps point to ongoing margin pressure, though PBOC targeted easing should support 4Q26 activity.

4️⃣ Property Support Steps Up

The central government's 1ppt-a-year subsidy on new first-home mortgages, its first on commercial mortgages, took effect on 1 October. Maybank Securities expects better sentiment but stays selective, favouring China Resources Land for its stronger balance sheet; the stock rose 2.72% on the week.

5️⃣ Healthcare Leads, Autos and Internet Lag

CSPC Pharma was the top HSI gainer at 6.43%, and the Hang Seng Healthcare Index rose 8.5% over 16-30 September on supportive 15th Five-Year Plan signals for pharma. Autos and internet lagged: Xiaomi, Geely, BYD and Li Auto each fell more than 5%, while Tencent and Alibaba lost over 3%.

Technical Snapshot

The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 23,972.29, down about 2.6% from its last pre-holiday close as trading resumed on Friday. The Shanghai Composite (SSE) held at 3,842.19, unchanged from month-end because mainland markets stayed shut after 30 September. With onshore markets closed until 8 October, the HSI is likely to stay volatile and thinly traded, with attention on the mainland reopening.

Hang Seng Index Weekly Gainers

Healthcare, consumer and property names led the gainers, with CSPC Pharma (+6.43%), ANTA Sports (+4.14%), COLI (+2.98%), Nongfu Spring (+2.97%) and NetEase (+2.93%) topping the list. Telcos such as China Telecom also edged higher.

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents' weekly performance table below.)

HSI Constituents — Weekly Gainers
Week 40, 02 Oct 2026
Code Company Close (Wk) Wk % YTD %
HSI ★ HSI ★ 23,972.29 -2.19% -6.47%
1093 CSPC Pharma 9.93 +6.43% +17.79%
2020 ANTA Sports 74.15 +4.14% -7.95%
688 COLI 12.79 +2.98% +4.41%
9633 Nongfu Spring 39.54 +2.97% -15.58%
9999 NetEase 186.20 +2.93% -13.23%
2269 WuXi Bio 54.55 +2.92% +73.51%
1109 CR Land 29.42 +2.72% +8.16%
960 Longfor 5.46 +2.53% -36.16%
836 CR Power 19.44 +2.37% +12.31%
1378 China Hongqiao 21.16 +2.12% -35.13%
288 WH Group 6.63 +1.92% -23.53%
3692 Hansoh 34.14 +1.85% -5.38%
6690 Haier 20.08 +1.57% -17.30%
322 Tingyi 11.53 +1.41% -2.21%
728 China Telecom 4.45 +1.37% -17.44%
669 Techtronic 128.70 +1.34% +43.16%
6862 Haidilao 9.20 +1.27% -35.47%
857 PetroChinaHPCD 9.52 +1.12% +13.54%
883 CNOOC 23.52 +0.51% +10.42%
941 China MobileHCMD 78.85 +0.51% -3.49%
1209 CR Mixc 37.18 +0.49% -13.41%
6 Power Assets 59.35 +0.34% +7.62%
2331 Li Ning 12.28 +0.33% -34.23%
291 CR Beer 18.46 +0.33% -29.60%
2319 China Mengniu Dairy 17.58 +0.29% +17.91%
939 CCB 9.55 +0.21% +24.25%
3968 CM Bank 50.60 +0.20% -4.17%
2359 WuXi AppTec 210.00 +0.19% +112.77%
1177 Sino Biopharm 5.58 +0.18% -9.71%
SgTraderClub.blogspot.com | Data: S&P Capital IQ | Blue code = tradable on SGX as a Singapore Depository ReceiptWeek 40

Code	Company	Close (Wk)	Wk %	YTD %
HSI ★	HSI ★	23,972.29	-2.19%	-6.47%
1093	CSPC Pharma	9.93	+6.43%	+17.79%
2020	ANTA Sports	74.15	+4.14%	-7.95%
688	COLI	12.79	+2.98%	+4.41%
9633	Nongfu Spring	39.54	+2.97%	-15.58%
9999	NetEase	186.20	+2.93%	-13.23%
2269	WuXi Bio	54.55	+2.92%	+73.51%
1109	CR Land	29.42	+2.72%	+8.16%
960	Longfor	5.46	+2.53%	-36.16%
836	CR Power	19.44	+2.37%	+12.31%
1378	China Hongqiao	21.16	+2.12%	-35.13%
288	WH Group	6.63	+1.92%	-23.53%
3692	Hansoh	34.14	+1.85%	-5.38%
6690	Haier	20.08	+1.57%	-17.30%
322	Tingyi	11.53	+1.41%	-2.21%
728	China Telecom	4.45	+1.37%	-17.44%
669	Techtronic	128.70	+1.34%	+43.16%
6862	Haidilao	9.20	+1.27%	-35.47%
857	PetroChinaHPCD	9.52	+1.12%	+13.54%
883	CNOOC	23.52	+0.51%	+10.42%
941	China MobileHCMD	78.85	+0.51%	-3.49%
1209	CR Mixc	37.18	+0.49%	-13.41%
6	Power Assets	59.35	+0.34%	+7.62%
2331	Li Ning	12.28	+0.33%	-34.23%
291	CR Beer	18.46	+0.33%	-29.60%
2319	China Mengniu Dairy	17.58	+0.29%	+17.91%
939	CCB	9.55	+0.21%	+24.25%
3968	CM Bank	50.60	+0.20%	-4.17%
2359	WuXi AppTec	210.00	+0.19%	+112.77%
1177	Sino Biopharm	5.58	+0.18%	-9.71%

Hang Seng Index Weekly Decliners

Zhongsheng (-10.86%), Lenovo (-7.64%), Xiaomi (-6.41%), AIA (-6.17%) and Budweiser APAC (-5.97%) led the decliners, with autos, insurers and HSBC (-5.14%) under pressure. Internet heavyweights Tencent (-3.53%) and Alibaba (-3.69%) also lost ground.

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents' weekly performance table below.)

HSI Constituents — Weekly Decliners
Week 40, 02 Oct 2026
Code Company Close (Wk) Wk % YTD %
HSI ★ HSI ★ 23,972.29 -2.19% -6.47%
868 Xinyi Glass 7.96 -0.06% -3.81%
101 Hang Lung Prop. 6.47 -0.15% -24.80%
2057 ZTO Express 152.90 -0.20% -5.79%
1113 CK Asset 45.90 -0.22% +16.73%
2688 ENN Energy 48.62 -0.29% -29.74%
2313 Shenzhou Intl 33.98 -0.29% -44.48%
241 AliHealth 2.81 -0.35% -44.26%
3 HK & China Gas 7.04 -0.42% +0.50%
285 BYD Electronic 22.54 -0.53% -33.00%
1038 CK Infra 64.90 -0.61% +12.67%
2 CLP Holdings 75.75 -0.72% +8.84%
9618 JD.comHJDD 102.90 -0.77% -7.80%
1398 ICBC 7.46 -0.80% +18.52%
1088 China Shenhua 43.40 -0.82% +11.86%
2388 BOC Hong Kong 50.70 -0.88% +28.61%
2600 Aluminum Corp China 7.62 -0.91% -37.39%
12 Henderson Land 25.98 -0.92% -7.68%
316 OOIL 143.70 -0.96% +14.59%
1929 Chow Tai Fook 10.86 -1.00% -12.35%
3988 Bank of ChinaHBND 5.92 -1.00% +32.74%
1099 Sinopharm 14.73 -1.01% -24.23%
1044 Hengan 19.50 -1.02% -30.11%
16 Sun Hung Kai 106.00 -1.03% +11.93%
1 CK Hutchison 67.25 -1.03% +27.01%
6618 JD Health 34.64 -1.25% -37.59%
267 CITIC 12.77 -1.31% +5.89%
2318 Ping AnHPAD 52.00 -1.33% -20.18%
1024 KuaishouHKUD 29.58 -1.47% -53.75%
823 Link REIT 36.44 -1.57% +4.89%
386 Sinopec 4.36 -1.58% -6.75%
1997 Wharf REIC 29.98 -1.83% +21.97%
9992 Pop MartHPPD 149.20 -1.91% -20.51%
6160 BeOne Medicines 212.20 -1.94% +18.35%
3690 MeituanHMTD 70.20 -2.02% -32.04%
9961 Trip.comHTGD 302.40 -2.20% -45.42%
968 Xinyi Solar 1.88 -2.34% -36.87%
2899 Zijin Mining 31.70 -2.46% -11.10%
9888 BaiduHBUD 83.20 -2.46% -36.73%
762 China Unicom 5.42 -2.78% -30.27%
66 MTR Corp 31.68 -2.88% +6.31%
1519 J&T Global Express 8.46 -3.04% -19.04%
388 HKEX 375.80 -3.24% -7.80%
1801 Innovent Bio 96.25 -3.46% +26.23%
700 TencentHTCD 421.20 -3.53% -29.68%
2618 JD Logistics 9.69 -3.54% -15.19%
9988 AlibabaHBBD 104.40 -3.69% -26.89%
2628 China Life 27.50 -3.78% +0.44%
9901 New Oriental 43.10 -3.97% +2.04%
2382 Sunny Optical 62.05 -4.39% -5.34%
300 Midea 91.15 -4.40% +7.30%
27 Galaxy Ent. 30.30 -4.42% -20.93%
1928 Sands China 11.38 -4.45% -41.94%
981 SMICHSMD 60.25 -4.89% -15.68%
5 HSBCHSHD 149.50 -5.14% +22.14%
1211 BYDHYDD 73.90 -5.38% -22.50%
175 GeelyHGMD 14.74 -5.51% -17.65%
2015 Li Auto 42.62 -5.79% -34.28%
1876 Budweiser APAC 5.67 -5.97% -25.23%
1299 AIA Group 69.20 -6.17% -13.39%
1810 XiaomiHXXD 24.24 -6.41% -38.32%
992 Lenovo 34.32 -7.64% +270.63%
881 Zhongsheng 2.58 -10.86% -77.75%
SgTraderClub.blogspot.com | Data: S&P Capital IQ | Blue code = tradable on SGX as a Singapore Depository ReceiptWeek 40

Code	Company	Close (Wk)	Wk %	YTD %
HSI ★	HSI ★	23,972.29	-2.19%	-6.47%
868	Xinyi Glass	7.96	-0.06%	-3.81%
101	Hang Lung Prop.	6.47	-0.15%	-24.80%
2057	ZTO Express	152.90	-0.20%	-5.79%
1113	CK Asset	45.90	-0.22%	+16.73%
2688	ENN Energy	48.62	-0.29%	-29.74%
2313	Shenzhou Intl	33.98	-0.29%	-44.48%
241	AliHealth	2.81	-0.35%	-44.26%
3	HK & China Gas	7.04	-0.42%	+0.50%
285	BYD Electronic	22.54	-0.53%	-33.00%
1038	CK Infra	64.90	-0.61%	+12.67%
2	CLP Holdings	75.75	-0.72%	+8.84%
9618	JD.comHJDD	102.90	-0.77%	-7.80%
1398	ICBC	7.46	-0.80%	+18.52%
1088	China Shenhua	43.40	-0.82%	+11.86%
2388	BOC Hong Kong	50.70	-0.88%	+28.61%
2600	Aluminum Corp China	7.62	-0.91%	-37.39%
12	Henderson Land	25.98	-0.92%	-7.68%
316	OOIL	143.70	-0.96%	+14.59%
1929	Chow Tai Fook	10.86	-1.00%	-12.35%
3988	Bank of ChinaHBND	5.92	-1.00%	+32.74%
1099	Sinopharm	14.73	-1.01%	-24.23%
1044	Hengan	19.50	-1.02%	-30.11%
16	Sun Hung Kai	106.00	-1.03%	+11.93%
1	CK Hutchison	67.25	-1.03%	+27.01%
6618	JD Health	34.64	-1.25%	-37.59%
267	CITIC	12.77	-1.31%	+5.89%
2318	Ping AnHPAD	52.00	-1.33%	-20.18%
1024	KuaishouHKUD	29.58	-1.47%	-53.75%
823	Link REIT	36.44	-1.57%	+4.89%
386	Sinopec	4.36	-1.58%	-6.75%
1997	Wharf REIC	29.98	-1.83%	+21.97%
9992	Pop MartHPPD	149.20	-1.91%	-20.51%
6160	BeOne Medicines	212.20	-1.94%	+18.35%
3690	MeituanHMTD	70.20	-2.02%	-32.04%
9961	Trip.comHTGD	302.40	-2.20%	-45.42%
968	Xinyi Solar	1.88	-2.34%	-36.87%
2899	Zijin Mining	31.70	-2.46%	-11.10%
9888	BaiduHBUD	83.20	-2.46%	-36.73%
762	China Unicom	5.42	-2.78%	-30.27%
66	MTR Corp	31.68	-2.88%	+6.31%
1519	J&T Global Express	8.46	-3.04%	-19.04%
388	HKEX	375.80	-3.24%	-7.80%
1801	Innovent Bio	96.25	-3.46%	+26.23%
700	TencentHTCD	421.20	-3.53%	-29.68%
2618	JD Logistics	9.69	-3.54%	-15.19%
9988	AlibabaHBBD	104.40	-3.69%	-26.89%
2628	China Life	27.50	-3.78%	+0.44%
9901	New Oriental	43.10	-3.97%	+2.04%
2382	Sunny Optical	62.05	-4.39%	-5.34%
300	Midea	91.15	-4.40%	+7.30%
27	Galaxy Ent.	30.30	-4.42%	-20.93%
1928	Sands China	11.38	-4.45%	-41.94%
981	SMICHSMD	60.25	-4.89%	-15.68%
5	HSBCHSHD	149.50	-5.14%	+22.14%
1211	BYDHYDD	73.90	-5.38%	-22.50%
175	GeelyHGMD	14.74	-5.51%	-17.65%
2015	Li Auto	42.62	-5.79%	-34.28%
1876	Budweiser APAC	5.67	-5.97%	-25.23%
1299	AIA Group	69.20	-6.17%	-13.39%
1810	XiaomiHXXD	24.24	-6.41%	-38.32%
992	Lenovo	34.32	-7.64%	+270.63%
881	Zhongsheng	2.58	-10.86%	-77.75%

📊 Weekly charts:

🇸🇬 Singapore

Market Overview

Singapore stocks extended their September pullback, with the Straits Times Index (STI) falling 1.34% as property, financials and SGX weighed. Only a handful of constituents advanced, led by UOB, Frasers Centrepoint Trust and ST Engineering.

Index Weekly Performance

- Straits Times Index (STI): -1.34%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ CDL's Reset Rattles Property

City Developments fell 14.77% after unveiling its GET+ strategic review on 28 September, targeting S$6 billion of divestments and S$5 billion of new growth capital by FY2029. Analysts pointed to high priced-in expectations and weak conditions. HK Land, UOL and CapitaLand Investment also lost about 5% to 6%.

2️⃣ DFI Swaps Maxim's Stake for Starbucks

DFI Retail will exchange its 50% Maxim's stake for the Starbucks operations plus US$340 million in cash, becoming a fully operational company. DBS Vickers trimmed FY27/28 earnings forecasts by 13%/7% to reflect the deal. The shares closed the week 6.06% lower.

3️⃣ Banks Split Despite Faster Loan Growth

UOB was the STI's best performer at +1.27%, while DBS (-1.01%) and OCBC (-1.09%) slipped. Singapore loans grew 2.5% month on month in August, with volume increasingly replacing margin as the earnings driver.

4️⃣ SGX Lags Despite Market-Revival Push

SGX fell 6.29% on the week, with analysts having flagged turnover expectations, even as the MAS stepped up efforts to revive the local market. From 5 October, board lot sizes change and minimum commissions on SGX online trades are removed at brokers including OCBC Securities.

Technical Snapshot

The Straits Times Index (STI) closed at 5,634.82, extending its pullback from the 5,700 level and trimming its year-to-date gain to 21.28%. The MSCI Singapore Index(SiMSCI) has corrected since its 8 August peak near 550 with momentum fading, and analysts see 520 as key support, then 510. Near-term bias stays cautious while markets digest rising yields, with the STI likely to range-trade absent a fresh catalyst.

(Refer to the STI weekly performance table below.)

STI Constituents — Weekly Performance
Week 40, 02 Oct 2026
Code Company Close (Wk) Wk % YTD %
STI ★ STI ★ 5,634.82 -1.34% +21.28%
U11 UOB 43.11 +1.27% +22.96%
J69U Frasers CT 2.07 +0.98% -11.16%
S63 ST Engineering 10.97 +0.92% +30.29%
AJBU Keppel DC REIT 2.13 +0.47% -5.33%
C6L SIA 6.66 +0.15% +4.06%
C38U CapLand IntCom Tr 2.24 +0.00% -6.28%
G13 Genting Sing 0.61 +0.00% -15.17%
U96 Sembcorp Ind 5.84 -0.51% -2.99%
BUOU Frasers L&C Tr 0.86 -0.57% -13.07%
Z74 Singtel 4.25 -0.70% -6.59%
J36 JMH USD 55.36 -0.90% -19.05%
M44U Mapletree Log Tr 1.09 -0.91% -17.42%
D05 DBS 77.21 -1.01% +36.99%
O39 OCBC 31.66 -1.09% +60.22%
ME8U Mapletree Ind Tr 1.83 -1.61% -12.02%
V03 Venture 16.42 -1.79% +8.45%
Y92 ThaiBev 0.43 -2.27% -6.52%
BN4 Keppel 11.04 -2.30% +6.67%
N2IU Mapletree PACT 1.19 -2.46% -19.05%
S58 SATS 3.73 -2.61% -2.10%
A17U CapAscendas REIT 2.22 -2.63% -21.55%
BS6 YZJ Ship SGD 5.02 -3.28% +44.25%
5E2 Seatrium 2.03 -3.33% -6.02%
9CI CapLand Invest 2.47 -5.00% -8.86%
U14 UOL 8.03 -5.08% -8.12%
F34 Wilmar 3.47 -5.71% +12.66%
D01 DFI Retail USD 3.10 -6.06% -21.52%
H78 HK Land USD 8.05 -6.07% +15.83%
S68 SGX 20.99 -6.29% +23.76%
C09 CityDev 7.04 -14.77% -12.00%
SgTraderClub.blogspot.com | Data: S&P Capital IQWeek 40

Code	Company	Close (Wk)	Wk %	YTD %
STI ★	STI ★	5,634.82	-1.34%	+21.28%
U11	UOB	43.11	+1.27%	+22.96%
J69U	Frasers CT	2.07	+0.98%	-11.16%
S63	ST Engineering	10.97	+0.92%	+30.29%
AJBU	Keppel DC REIT	2.13	+0.47%	-5.33%
C6L	SIA	6.66	+0.15%	+4.06%
C38U	CapLand IntCom Tr	2.24	+0.00%	-6.28%
G13	Genting Sing	0.61	+0.00%	-15.17%
U96	Sembcorp Ind	5.84	-0.51%	-2.99%
BUOU	Frasers L&C Tr	0.86	-0.57%	-13.07%
Z74	Singtel	4.25	-0.70%	-6.59%
J36	JMH USD	55.36	-0.90%	-19.05%
M44U	Mapletree Log Tr	1.09	-0.91%	-17.42%
D05	DBS	77.21	-1.01%	+36.99%
O39	OCBC	31.66	-1.09%	+60.22%
ME8U	Mapletree Ind Tr	1.83	-1.61%	-12.02%
V03	Venture	16.42	-1.79%	+8.45%
Y92	ThaiBev	0.43	-2.27%	-6.52%
BN4	Keppel	11.04	-2.30%	+6.67%
N2IU	Mapletree PACT	1.19	-2.46%	-19.05%
S58	SATS	3.73	-2.61%	-2.10%
A17U	CapAscendas REIT	2.22	-2.63%	-21.55%
BS6	YZJ Ship SGD	5.02	-3.28%	+44.25%
5E2	Seatrium	2.03	-3.33%	-6.02%
9CI	CapLand Invest	2.47	-5.00%	-8.86%
U14	UOL	8.03	-5.08%	-8.12%
F34	Wilmar	3.47	-5.71%	+12.66%
D01	DFI Retail USD	3.10	-6.06%	-21.52%
H78	HK Land USD	8.05	-6.07%	+15.83%
S68	SGX	20.99	-6.29%	+23.76%
C09	CityDev	7.04	-14.77%	-12.00%

📊 Weekly charts:

📅 Week Ahead (5-9 Oct 2026)

U.S. ISM Services PMI on Monday is the first test of demand and prices paid after a firm manufacturing print, followed by Wednesday's Federal Reserve minutes from the September hike and a $39 billion 10-year Treasury auction. Consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan arrives Friday, with Constellation Brands (Monday), Levi Strauss (Wednesday) and Delta Air Lines later in the week among the earnings.

Mainland markets stay closed through Wednesday 7 October and reopen on Thursday, leaving Hong Kong to trade without onshore flows and setting up potential catch-up volatility on reopening. Macau expects National Day holiday arrivals of about 150,000 a day, and China's September CPI is due Friday.

The SGX board lot and commission changes take effect on Monday, and Malaysia unveils Budget 2027 on Friday, with a possible minimum-wage rise. Regional markets will otherwise take cues from the Fed minutes and oil.

🗓️ Overarching Watchpoint

Wednesday's Fed minutes are the week's binary risk. A hawkish read that keeps an October hike in play despite the payrolls miss could revive the bond selloff that pressured equities, while a patient tone would extend the late-week relief in yields and support risk assets.

Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports.

Unfamiliar with a term? See the Glossary.

Higher Yields, Higher Tech: Markets Diverge This Week

noreply@blogger.com (Fan Jun) — Sat, 26 Sep 2026 14:06:27 +0000

For the week of Sep 25, global equities diverged as a relentless bond sell-off collided with unshaken AI optimism. In the U.S., a stronger-than-expected PMI print and hawkish Fed rhetoric drove Treasury yields to multi-decade highs, yet resilient tech and communication-services names kept the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in positive territory for the week. China and Hong Kong equities slipped as elevated yields, a Mid-Autumn holiday-shortened trading week, and fading hopes for a broader U.S.-China breakthrough weighed on sentiment, even as AI and pharma names bucked the trend. Singapore stocks extended their weekly advance, with the Straits Times Index rising on strength in banks and industrials though remaining below its early-September record close.

(Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables below.)

🇺🇸 United States

Market Overview

U.S. equities notched a second straight weekly gain even as a punishing sell-off in Treasuries pushed borrowing costs to their highest levels in two decades. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose 0.28%, the S&P 500 (SPX) advanced 1.21%, and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) jumped 2.06%, with strength concentrated in technology and communication-services names riding excitement around agentic AI. Weak Treasury auctions and hawkish Fed commentary sent the 30-year yield above 5.5% and the 10-year above 5.2%, widening credit spreads even as resilient jobless-claims data underscored a still-firm labor market.

Index Weekly Performance

- Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): +0.28%

- S&P 500 (SPX): +1.21%

- Nasdaq Composite (COMP): +2.06%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Business Activity Hits 62-Month High

S&P Global's flash September composite PMI jumped to 58.4 from 58.0, the fastest pace in over five years. Services led at 58.7, a 59-month high, while manufacturing PMI climbed to 57.0. S&P Global noted the reading implies economic growth of roughly 4% this quarter.

2️⃣ Bond Sell-Off Sends Yields to Multi-Decade Highs

A five-year Treasury auction priced at 5.033%, the highest since 2006, while seven-year notes cleared 7 basis points above pre-auction levels. The 30-year yield topped 5.5%, its highest since 2004, and the 10-year briefly touched 5.2% as hawkish Fed commentary and tariff-related inflation fears weighed on demand.

3️⃣ AI Optimism Keeps Tech Rally Alive

Strong consumer uptake of Meta's new AI agent fueled excitement over agentic AI and its implications for computing infrastructure demand. Technology and communication-services stocks outperformed, helping the Nasdaq shrug off the broader rate backdrop.

4️⃣ Credit Spreads Widen as Loans Hold Firm

Investment-grade and high-yield credit spreads widened alongside the Treasury rout. The leveraged loan market was a bright spot, however, attracting meaningful inflows as floating-rate assets benefited from rising rate-hike expectations.

5️⃣ Labor Market Stays Resilient

Initial jobless claims came in at 197,000, below the 201,000 consensus, while continuing claims of 1.72 million also undershot expectations of 1.75 million. A still-firm labor market gives the Fed room to stay hawkish on inflation.

6️⃣ Small Caps Lag as Growth Outpaces Value

Growth stocks outperformed value within the large-cap universe, while the small-cap Russell 2000 pulled back as higher rates weighed disproportionately on smaller, more rate-sensitive companies.

S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

Technology led S&P 500 sector performance for a second straight week, powered by continued enthusiasm around agentic AI and strong consumer uptake of Meta's new AI agent. Communication services and health care also posted solid gains, while defensive and rate-sensitive sectors bore the brunt of the bond sell-off. Utilities and energy were the clear laggards, with financials and real estate also under pressure as higher borrowing costs weighed on valuations. (Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

Technical Snapshot

The S&P 500 held its short-term uptrend despite the bond-market volatility, closing near 7,743 after gaining 1.21% on the week. The Nasdaq Composite's AI-driven advance pushed it further up, hit intra-week record at 27,288, while the Dow lagged as rate-sensitive cyclicals underperformed. With yields still climbing, SPX, Nasdaq, and DJI charts continue to show a sideways-to-higher consolidation, with prior swing-low support likely to be tested if the Treasury sell-off extends into next week.

📊 Weekly charts:

- DJI weekly chart

- SPX weekly chart

- Nasdaq weekly chart

🇨🇳 China / Hong Kong

Market Overview

China and Hong Kong equities retreated for the week, with mainland shares closed Friday for the Mid-Autumn Festival and Hong Kong extending losses into the close. The CSI 300 fell 1.51% and the Shanghai Composite (SSE) declined 0.60% through Thursday, while the Hang Seng Index (HSI) slipped 0.97%, with the Hang Seng Tech Index down 1.1% on Friday alone as AI-related, auto, and gaming shares led losses. Early-week strength in health care and property faded as elevated U.S. Treasury yields, firm oil prices, and diminishing hopes for a broader U.S.-China trade breakthrough weighed on sentiment, even as an extension of the trade truce to January offered some support. (Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables above.)

Index Weekly Performance

- CSI 300: -1.51%

- Shanghai Composite (SSE): -0.60%

- Hang Seng Index (HSI): -0.97%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ U.S.-China Trade Truce Extended to January

Washington and Beijing agreed to extend their trade truce by two months to January 10, 2027, preserving the current framework as talks continue. The U.S. continued pressing China over implementation of prior commitments on agricultural purchases and rare-earth flows.

2️⃣ Mid-Autumn Holiday Distorts Trading

Mainland markets were closed Friday for the Mid-Autumn Festival, with the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite reflecting Thursday's close. Early-week gains in health care, property, and select technology names reversed as growth stocks weakened into Thursday's sell-off.

3️⃣ AI and Pharma Names Buck the Trend

Tencent, WuXi Biologics, WuXi AppTec, and CSPC Pharma posted strong weekly gains on AI-monetisation optimism and a growing innovative-drug pipeline, with Innovent Biologics also outperforming even as the broader index fell.

4️⃣ Hong Kong Exports Surge on AI Demand

Hong Kong's August exports jumped 53% year-on-year to HKD667.9 billion, the second-highest monthly value on record, extending a 50.7% surge in July as AI-related electronics demand stayed robust.

5️⃣ Autos and EV Supply Chain Lead Decliners

BYD, BYD Electronic, and battery-materials names such as Zijin Mining and Aluminum Corporation of China led losses, alongside travel and consumer names including Trip.com and Haidilao, as growth-sensitive sectors underperformed.

Technical Snapshot

The Hang Seng Index slipped toward the 24,500 level, its lowest close since mid Jul, as broad-based selling in autos, EVs, and travel names outweighed strength in AI and pharma. The Hang Seng Tech Index underperformed the broader benchmark, falling 1.1% on Friday alone as investors rotated out of growth-sensitive names. With mainland markets closed for the National Day Golden Week from October 1, HSI volumes are likely to stay thin and choppy over the coming week.

HSI Constituents – Weekly Gainers

Pharmaceutical and AI-related names led the HSI's advancers, with WuXi Biologics, WuXi AppTec, and CSPC Pharma among the top gainers as investors rotated into China's innovative-drug and AI-adjacent plays. Tencent added on continued AI-monetisation optimism, while New Oriental and Innovent Biologics also posted solid weekly gains. (Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents' weekly performance table below.)

HSI Constituents — Weekly Gainers

Week 39, 26 Sep 2026

Code	Company	Close (Wk)	Wk %	YTD %
HSI ★	HSI ★	24,510.09	-0.97%	-4.37%
2269	WuXi Bio	53.00	+5.26%	+68.58%
2359	WuXi AppTec	209.60	+4.80%	+112.36%
1093	CSPC Pharma	9.33	+4.48%	+10.68%
700	TencentHTCD	436.60	+4.20%	-27.11%
9901	New Oriental	44.88	+3.79%	+6.25%
1801	Innovent Bio	99.70	+3.21%	+30.75%
1876	Budweiser APAC	6.04	+1.86%	-20.49%
1177	Sino Biopharm	5.57	+1.83%	-9.87%
688	COLI	12.42	+1.80%	+1.39%
6160	BeOne Medicines	216.40	+1.79%	+20.69%
12	Henderson Land	26.22	+1.00%	-6.82%
291	CR Beer	18.40	+0.99%	-29.82%
836	CR Power	18.99	+0.53%	+9.71%
1398	ICBC	7.51	+0.20%	+19.48%
1997	Wharf REIC	30.54	+0.20%	+24.25%
388	HKEX	388.40	+0.10%	-4.71%
1	CK Hutchison	67.95	+0.07%	+28.33%
1109	CR Land	28.64	+0.00%	+5.29%
1044	Hengan	19.70	+0.00%	-29.39%
823	Link REIT	37.02	+0.00%	+6.56%

SgTraderClub.blogspot.com | Data: S&P Capital IQ | Blue code = tradable on SGX as a Singapore Depository ReceiptWeek 39

HSI Constituents – Weekly Decliners

Consumer, auto, and EV supply-chain names dominated the decliners list, with Zhongsheng, AliHealth, China Hongqiao, and Longfor Properties among the weakest performers. BYD, BYD Electronic, and battery-materials plays such as Zijin Mining and Aluminum Corporation of China also came under pressure, alongside travel and leisure names including Trip.com and Haidilao. (Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents' weekly performance table below.)

HSI Constituents — Weekly Decliners

Week 39, 26 Sep 2026

Code	Company	Close (Wk)	Wk %	YTD %
HSI ★	HSI ★	24,510.09	-0.97%	-4.37%
3988	Bank of ChinaHBND	5.98	-0.08%	+34.08%
1038	CK Infra	65.30	-0.15%	+13.37%
3	HK & China Gas	7.08	-0.21%	+0.93%
1113	CK Asset	46.00	-0.39%	+16.99%
9633	Nongfu Spring	38.40	-0.52%	-18.02%
16	Sun Hung Kai	107.10	-0.56%	+13.09%
939	CCB	9.54	-0.57%	+23.99%
2020	ANTA Sports	71.20	-0.70%	-11.61%
1929	Chow Tai Fook	10.97	-0.72%	-11.46%
941	China MobileHCMD	78.45	-0.76%	-3.98%
267	CITIC	12.94	-0.77%	+7.30%
316	OOIL	145.10	-0.82%	+15.71%
9988	AlibabaHBBD	108.40	-0.82%	-24.09%
857	PetroChinaHPCD	9.41	-0.84%	+12.29%
883	CNOOC	23.40	-0.85%	+9.86%
1099	Sinopharm	14.88	-0.93%	-23.46%
2318	Ping AnHPAD	52.70	-0.94%	-19.11%
728	China Telecom	4.39	-1.01%	-18.55%
669	Techtronic	127.00	-1.09%	+41.27%
66	MTR Corp	32.62	-1.09%	+9.46%
992	Lenovo	37.16	-1.12%	+301.30%
6	Power Assets	59.15	-1.17%	+7.25%
9618	JD.comHJDD	103.70	-1.24%	-7.08%
2319	China Mengniu Dairy	17.53	-1.35%	+17.57%
3968	CM Bank	50.50	-1.37%	-4.36%
1209	CR Mixc	37.00	-1.44%	-13.83%
9999	NetEase	180.90	-1.47%	-15.70%
2	CLP Holdings	76.30	-1.48%	+9.63%
288	WH Group	6.50	-1.51%	-24.97%
1088	China Shenhua	43.76	-1.57%	+12.78%
2388	BOC Hong Kong	51.15	-1.73%	+29.76%
101	Hang Lung Prop.	6.49	-1.74%	-24.68%
2688	ENN Energy	48.76	-1.85%	-29.54%
386	Sinopec	4.42	-1.88%	-5.25%
1810	XiaomiHXXD	25.90	-1.89%	-34.10%
9992	Pop MartHPPD	152.10	-1.93%	-18.97%
3690	MeituanHMTD	71.65	-2.12%	-30.64%
175	GeelyHGMD	15.60	-2.13%	-12.85%
9888	BaiduHBUD	85.30	-2.18%	-35.13%
3692	Hansoh	33.52	-2.27%	-7.10%
1024	KuaishouHKUD	30.02	-2.34%	-53.06%
5	HSBCHSHD	157.60	-2.48%	+28.76%
762	China Unicom	5.58	-2.62%	-28.28%
2331	Li Ning	12.24	-2.63%	-34.44%
1928	Sands China	11.91	-2.70%	-39.23%
2628	China Life	28.58	-2.72%	+4.38%
2313	Shenzhou Intl	34.08	-2.74%	-44.31%
981	SMICHSMD	63.35	-2.76%	-11.34%
1519	J&T Global Express	8.72	-2.79%	-16.51%
27	Galaxy Ent.	31.70	-2.82%	-17.28%
322	Tingyi	11.37	-2.99%	-3.56%
9961	Trip.comHTGD	309.20	-3.19%	-44.19%
2382	Sunny Optical	64.90	-3.21%	-0.99%
6618	JD Health	35.08	-3.31%	-36.79%
1299	AIA Group	73.75	-3.91%	-7.70%
6690	Haier	19.77	-3.94%	-18.57%
300	Midea	95.35	-3.98%	+12.24%
2618	JD Logistics	10.04	-4.11%	-12.08%
1211	BYDHYDD	78.10	-4.17%	-18.09%
6862	Haidilao	9.08	-4.47%	-36.28%
868	Xinyi Glass	7.96	-4.61%	-3.75%
285	BYD Electronic	22.66	-4.71%	-32.64%
2899	Zijin Mining	32.50	-4.80%	-8.86%
2015	Li Auto	45.24	-4.88%	-30.24%
2600	Aluminum Corp China	7.69	-5.30%	-36.81%
2057	ZTO Express	153.20	-6.01%	-5.61%
968	Xinyi Solar	1.92	-6.11%	-35.35%
960	Longfor	5.33	-6.16%	-37.73%
1378	China Hongqiao	20.72	-6.33%	-36.48%
241	AliHealth	2.83	-7.83%	-44.06%
881	Zhongsheng	2.90	-8.23%	-75.04%

SgTraderClub.blogspot.com | Data: S&P Capital IQ | Blue code = tradable on SGX as a Singapore Depository ReceiptWeek 39

📊 Weekly charts:

- SSE weekly chart

- HSI weekly chart

🇸🇬 Singapore

Market Overview

Singapore shares extended their weekly advance, with the Straits Times Index (STI) rising 0.97% to close at 5,711.12, up 22.92% year-to-date but still shy of the index's record close of 5,801.96 set on 4 September 2026. Gains were broad-based, led by DFI Retail Group, ST Engineering, and the three local banks, while REITs and rate-sensitive trusts lagged as elevated global bond yields weighed on yield plays.

Index Weekly Performance

- Straits Times Index (STI): +0.97%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ STI Extends Gains, Banks and Industrials Lead

The STI rose 0.97% to 5,711.12, up 22.92% year-to-date though still below its 4 September record close of 5,801.96, led by DFI Retail Group (+5.77%), ST Engineering (+4.22%), and CityDevelopments, with all three local banks also posting solid weekly gains.

2️⃣ CSE Global Lands Fresh U.S. Electrification Orders

CSE Global secured two U.S. electrification order wins worth US$150m spanning LNG and data-centre power infrastructure, deepening its hyperscaler ties. CGS International reiterated its Add rating with an unchanged S$1.95 target price.

3️⃣ Corporate Actions in Focus

Keppel placed its Shanghai unit, Shuju Info Tech, under members' voluntary liquidation, Addvalue Technologies won shareholder approval to spin off and list its space-connectivity business on Nasdaq, and Far East Orchard agreed to acquire a London development site for S$102m.

4️⃣ REITs Underperform on Rate Pressure

Rate-sensitive REITs and trusts, including CapitaLand Ascendas REIT, Frasers Centrepoint Trust, and Mapletree Industrial Trust, led decliners as elevated U.S. Treasury yields continued to weigh on yield plays.

Technical Snapshot

The Straits Times Index closed at 5,711.12, extending its weekly advance while remaining comfortably above its 50-day moving average, though still roughly 1.6% below the record close of 5,801.96 set on 4 September 2026. Breadth was constructive, with roughly half of constituents ending the week higher, led by DFI Retail Group and ST Engineering. (Refer to the STI weekly performance table below.)

STI Constituents — Weekly Performance

Week 39, 26 Sep 2026

Code	Company	Close (Wk)	Wk %	YTD %
STI ★	STI ★	5,711.12	+0.97%	+22.92%
D01	DFI Retail USD	3.30	+5.77%	-16.46%
S63	ST Engineering	10.87	+4.22%	+29.10%
C09	CityDev	8.26	+2.61%	+3.25%
BN4	Keppel	11.30	+2.45%	+9.18%
C6L	SIA	6.65	+2.15%	+3.91%
O39	OCBC	32.01	+2.01%	+61.99%
U11	UOB	42.57	+1.89%	+21.42%
D05	DBS	78.00	+1.48%	+38.40%
V03	Venture	16.72	+1.33%	+10.44%
S68	SGX	22.40	+0.90%	+32.08%
N2IU	Mapletree PACT	1.22	+0.83%	-17.01%
S58	SATS	3.83	+0.52%	+0.52%
BS6	YZJ Ship SGD	5.19	+0.39%	+49.14%
U14	UOL	8.46	+0.12%	-3.20%
9CI	CapLand Invest	2.60	+0.00%	-4.06%
G13	Genting Sing	0.61	+0.00%	-15.17%
M44U	Mapletree Log Tr	1.10	+0.00%	-16.67%
Y92	ThaiBev	0.44	+0.00%	-4.35%
F34	Wilmar	3.68	+0.00%	+19.48%
U96	Sembcorp Ind	5.87	-0.51%	-2.49%
H78	HK Land USD	8.57	-0.81%	+23.31%
5E2	Seatrium	2.10	-0.94%	-2.78%
AJBU	Keppel DC REIT	2.12	-1.40%	-5.78%
Z74	Singtel	4.28	-1.61%	-5.93%
C38U	CapLand IntCom Tr	2.24	-2.18%	-6.28%
J69U	Frasers CT	2.05	-2.38%	-12.02%
A17U	CapAscendas REIT	2.28	-2.56%	-19.43%
ME8U	Mapletree Ind Tr	1.86	-2.62%	-10.58%
BUOU	Frasers L&C Tr	0.87	-2.79%	-12.56%
J36	JMH USD	55.86	-2.92%	-18.32%

SgTraderClub.blogspot.com | Data: S&P Capital IQWeek 39

📊 Weekly charts:

- STI weekly chart

📅 Week Ahead (28 Sep – 2 Oct 2026)

In the U.S., the week is dominated by the September jobs report due Friday, alongside JOLTS job openings on Tuesday, the Fed's preferred PCE inflation gauge and a third estimate of second-quarter GDP on Wednesday, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI on Thursday. With the flash PMI already flagging an economic acceleration, investors will watch whether payrolls and ISM data confirm strength or start to show cracks from the recent spike in borrowing costs.

Mainland Chinese markets shut for the National Day Golden Week from October 1 through October 7, thinning regional liquidity and leaving Hong Kong to trade largely on its own. Investors will track any follow-through from the U.S.-China trade truce extension and further AI-monetisation developments at Tencent, Alibaba, and other index heavyweights.

Singapore's manufacturing PMI for September is due in the first days of October and will be watched for signs of continued expansion. With the STI still trading roughly 1.6% below its 4 September record close, attention turns to corporate newsflow from CSE Global, Keppel, and other index constituents, alongside the region's response to still-elevated U.S. Treasury yields.

🗓️ Overarching Watchpoint

The single biggest swing factor remains the direction of U.S. Treasury yields: with the 10-year above 5.2% and the 30-year above 5.5%, a further leg higher into Friday's payrolls report could tighten financial conditions sharply and threaten the AI-led equity rally, while any stabilisation would likely extend risk appetite across all three markets.

Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports.

Unfamiliar with a term? See the Glossary.

Hawkish Hike: Oil Spikes, AI Steadies Markets

noreply@blogger.com (Fan Jun) — Sat, 19 Sep 2026 14:56:54 +0000

For the week of Sep 18, global equities traded with a cautious, headline-driven tone as the Federal Reserve delivered its first interest-rate increase since 2023 and a Middle East flare-up whipsawed oil prices. In the U.S., a modestly hawkish hike and a late pullback in crude left the major benchmarks mixed, with artificial-intelligence names cushioning the technology complex. In China and Hong Kong, a Friday technology-led rebound rescued mainland shares even as soft domestic demand and credit data kept sentiment fragile. In Singapore, a historic surge in AI-driven non-oil exports underpinned the macro backdrop, though the Straits Times Index slipped as index heavyweights sold off.

(Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables below.)

🇺🇸 United States

Market Overview

The major U.S. indexes finished mixed in a week dominated by the Fed's rate decision and volatile oil prices. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (COMP) outperformed with a +0.72% gain as AI-related shares shrugged off weekend safety warnings, while the S&P 500 (SPX) was essentially flat at -0.08% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lagged, falling -1.69%. Growth outpaced value across the large-cap universe, and small-caps trailed.

Index Weekly Performance

- Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): -1.69%

- S&P 500 (SPX): -0.08%

- Nasdaq Composite (COMP): +0.72%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Fed Delivers First Rate Hike Since 2023

The FOMC raised the federal funds target range by 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00% on Wednesday, a widely expected move that drew no dissents - a surprise, as many observers had looked for one or two doves favouring a hold. The Summary of Economic Projections penciled in one further 25 bps hike by end-2026, signalling a firmly inflation-focused stance.

2️⃣ Treasury Yields Whip Around the Decision

The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.04% earlier in the week, its highest since 2007, before easing to 4.94% on Thursday as investors gained confidence in the Fed's inflation-fighting credibility, then ticking higher again on Friday. Shorter-dated yields, most sensitive to the policy path, firmed as markets read the message as modestly more hawkish than expected.

3️⃣ Oil Spike Fades on Pipeline Reassessment

Crude jumped early in the week after attacks on Saudi pipeline infrastructure, and record U.S. diesel prices stoked inflation fears that the hike only partly assuaged. West Texas Intermediate then fell over 3% on Wednesday - its steepest daily drop in six weeks - after reports suggested the pipeline damage was less severe than first feared.

4️⃣ AI Complex Recovers From Safety Jitters

After Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei urged slower development of frontier models on Sept 12 - a call soon echoed by OpenAI's Sam Altman and xAI's Elon Musk - AI-linked semiconductors, memory and energy names sold off on Monday. Supportive comments from NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang steadied the group on Tuesday, and it regained ground into week's end.

5️⃣ Credit Favours Quality Over High Yield

Investment-grade corporates outperformed Treasuries for most of the week and rallied after the hike, with new issues generally oversubscribed on strong underlying demand. High-yield stayed under pressure as rising Treasury yields, oil-driven inflation concerns and expectations for further tightening heightened stress on lower-quality credit.

6️⃣ Earnings Strength Underpins the Outlook

Beneath the rate noise, the earnings backdrop stayed supportive: S&P 500 and mid-cap profit growth is expected to hold near the 20% range in the quarters ahead, and August retail sales beat despite elevated oil and inflation. Resilient consumption and broadening earnings could make any market advance less reliant on a handful of mega-caps.

S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

Sector performance tilted toward defensives and secular growth over cyclicals. Health Care led the tape and Technology was the only other sector to advance as the AI trade steadied, with semiconductor and precious-metals miners among the strongest sub-groups. At the bottom, Utilities fell hardest on the back-up in yields, followed by Financials - where rate-sensitive banks stabilised only after a sharp mid-week sell-off - and Real Estate. The split underscored a market rewarding defensive and secular-growth earnings while punishing its most rate-exposed corners. (Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

Technical Snapshot

The SPX held its recent range, closing marginally lower but comfortably above near-term support 7600 level as the flat weekly print masked sizeable intraday swings around the Fed. The Nasdaq's relative strength kept it near cycle highs within its 7-week consolidation range, while the DJI's slide left it lagging and testing the lower half of its recent band. On the charts, SPX and Nasdaq remain in sideways-to-higher consolidation with uptrends intact, whereas the DJI is consolidating lower - a divergence worth watching should yields resume their climb.

📊 Weekly charts:

🇨🇳 China / Hong Kong

Market Overview

China equities were mixed as mainland shares outperformed Hong Kong on a technology-led rebound into Friday. The CSI 300 edged down 0.06% and the Hang Seng Index (HSI) slipped 0.22%, while the Shanghai Composite (SSE) rose 0.61% in local-currency terms. Early weakness in AI and other growth names - amid a regional tech sell-off, higher oil and softer domestic data - gave way late in the week as semiconductors rebounded sharply and the renminbi firmed to a multi-year high. (Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables above.)

Index Weekly Performance

- CSI 300: -0.06%

- Shanghai Composite (SSE): +0.61%

- Hang Seng Index (HSI): -0.22%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Friday Tech Rebound Rescues the Week

A sharp Friday recovery in semiconductors and AI-related names broadened across mainland and Hong Kong boards, narrowing losses that had built earlier in the week. The renminbi strengthened to its firmest level in more than four years, a supportive backdrop that helped growth stocks claw back lost ground.

2️⃣ Industrial Output Firm, Demand Still Soft

August data underscored a widening divide: industrial production rose 5.2% year over year, ahead of expectations and up from July's 4.5%, powered by higher-value-added manufacturing. Retail sales, by contrast, grew just 0.4%, slowing from 0.6%, while fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% and property investment dropped 19.9% in the first eight months.

3️⃣ Credit Data Reinforces the Divide

Banks extended only RMB 60 billion of new loans in August, far below the RMB 400 billion consensus, and household borrowing contracted for a sixth straight month. Total social financing growth eased to 7.2% year over year from 7.4%, keeping the contrast between resilient technology manufacturing and weak consumption and property firmly in view.

4️⃣ Hong Kong Five-Year Plan Signals a Pivot

Hong Kong's inaugural 2026-2030 plan points to a policy shift away from property-led growth toward offshore renminbi finance, commodities infrastructure and technology capacity, per Maybank Securities. The read-through favours financial-plumbing and select strategic-infrastructure plays over generic local property exposure.

Technical Snapshot

The HSI closed marginally lower on the week but held above its recent consolidation floor, with Friday's rebound repairing some of the mid-week damage. The index remains range-bound below its year-to-date pivot, and breadth stayed uneven - a heavy tail of energy and consumer decliners offset a firm technology and biotech bid. A decisive move now hinges on whether Friday's tech recovery can extend or fades as oil and demand concerns linger.

HSI Constituents in Focus

Weekly Gainers. Lenovo topped the index with a spectacular +20.06% surge on AI-PC and hardware momentum, while the healthcare and biotech cohort ran hot - WuXi Bio (+7.13%), WuXi AppTec (+5.93%), Hansoh (+4.83%), JD Health (+4.43%) and Sino Biopharm (+4.19%) all rallied. Chip bellwether SMIC (+3.17%) and Trip.com (+4.45%) rounded out a growth-led leaderboard. (Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents' weekly performance table below.)

Weekly Decliners. The losers skewed toward energy and old-economy cyclicals as oil retreated: Sinopec (-5.55%), PetroChina (-4.91%) and China Shenhua (-3.60%) all fell. Macau gaming lagged, with Sands China (-8.38%) the single worst constituent, while consumer names Haidilao (-5.52%) and Chow Tai Fook (-5.31%) echoed the soft domestic-demand signal. (Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents' weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

🇸🇬 Singapore

Market Overview

Singapore's Straits Times Index (STI) eased 0.70% to close the week at 5,656.11, trimming but preserving a strong year-to-date advance of +21.74%. The decline was concentrated in a handful of index heavyweights rather than a broad retreat, as the large bank components finished roughly flat. Underpinning the tape, a record surge in non-oil domestic exports reinforced Singapore's increasingly AI-driven growth story.

Index Weekly Performance

- Straits Times Index (STI): -0.70%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ NODX Posts Fastest Growth Since 1988

Non-oil domestic exports surged 46.2% year over year in August - up sharply from July's 24.1% and the fastest since 1988 - with electronic shipments jumping roughly 132%. Exports to the U.S. (+91.0%) and China (+70.3%) led the gains, pointing to an AI-driven investment cycle rather than a broad-based recovery in consumer demand.

2️⃣ Analysts Lift Export and Rate Forecasts

The blowout print prompted upgrades: Maybank Securities reiterated its +5.2% full-year GDP call and raised its end-2026 3M SORA forecast to 1.6% (from 1.2%), while CGS International lifted its 2026 NODX growth outlook to 25.0% from 16.0%. Firmer local rate expectations dovetailed with the Fed's hawkish turn.

3️⃣ Index Drag From SGX and DFI Retail

The STI's slip owed to sharp falls in a few names: DFI Retail (-10.86%) and the stock exchange SGX (-8.64%) were the biggest drags, with Keppel (-3.50%) and Singtel (-3.33%) also weak. Gains in Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (+3.82%), ST Engineering (+1.86%) and UOB (+1.26%) cushioned the fall.

4️⃣ City Developments Sets Strategic-Review Date

City Developments said it will release the outcome of its strategic review on Sept 28, sending shares up as much as 4.3% intraday. UOB Kay Hian expects the review could include portfolio optimisation and monetisation of low-yielding UK and China assets - a potential near-term catalyst for the property counter.

Technical Snapshot

The STI's 0.70% dip barely dented an uptrend that has delivered a +21.74% year-to-date return, leaving the index consolidating just below its recent highs. Support held as roughly flat bank heavyweights offset the sell-off in DFI Retail and SGX, keeping the broader structure constructive. With the AI-export tailwind intact and local rate expectations firming, the near-term bias stays sideways-to-higher pending fresh catalysts. (Refer to the STI weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

📅 Week Ahead (21-25 Sep 2026)

The U.S. calendar centres on the August PCE report - the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, due late in the week - alongside the final Q2 GDP estimate, durable-goods orders and weekly jobless claims. With no FOMC meeting until Dec 8-9, a heavy slate of Fed speakers will be parsed for how firmly the one-more-hike path is held. Oil and Middle East headlines remain the key swing factor for yields and risk appetite.

China's loan prime rate fixing opens the week, testing whether banks pass on any further easing amid soft credit and property data. Investors will watch whether Friday's technology-led rebound and renminbi strength can extend, and gauge early positioning around Hong Kong's new 2026-2030 Five-Year Plan priorities in offshore RMB finance and technology.

In Singapore, August CPI mid-week and industrial production at week's end will show whether the export boom is broadening beyond electronics. Regionally, ASEAN currencies face mild depreciation pressure after the Fed's hike, and City Developments' strategic-review outcome on Sept 28 looms as a near-term catalyst.

🗓️ Overarching Watchpoint

The single biggest binary risk is oil. Crude's mid-week reversal on softer Saudi pipeline damage did much to calm the inflation scare - but any renewed Middle East escalation that re-spikes prices would revive the very inflation fears the Fed's hike only partly assuaged, pushing Treasury yields back toward 5% and pressuring rate-sensitive equities worldwide.

Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports.

Unfamiliar with a term? See the Glossary.

Oil Spike, Hot CPI: Fed Hike Odds Surge

noreply@blogger.com (Fan Jun) — Sat, 12 Sep 2026 13:37:44 +0000

For the week of Sep 11, global markets sold off as an escalating Middle East conflict pushed oil briefly above $100 a barrel and a hotter-than-expected August core CPI reading lifted the odds of a September Fed rate hike. U.S. equities retreated broadly, led by small- and mid-caps, as rising Treasury yields and fuel costs weighed on sentiment ahead of the Fed's policy decision. China and Hong Kong shares fell in sympathy, with Hong Kong underperforming the mainland as AI-related tech names swung sharply on dilution concerns. Singapore's Straits Times Index also retreated, tracking the regional risk-off tone as banks and property counters led the decline.

(Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables below.)

🇺🇸 United States

Market Overview

U.S. equities finished the holiday-shortened week broadly lower as an escalating Middle East conflict sent oil prices sharply higher and lifted Treasury yields. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell 1.57%, the S&P 500 (SPX) declined 0.80%, and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) held up best with a 0.66% loss, as small- and mid-cap names underperformed the mega-cap-heavy benchmarks. Markets were closed Monday for Labor Day, compressing a week dominated by inflation data and rate-hike repricing.

Index Weekly Performance

- Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): -1.57%

- S&P 500 (SPX): -0.80%

- Nasdaq Composite (COMP): -0.66%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Middle East Conflict Sends Oil Near $110

Attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and continued U.S.-Iran hostilities lifted oil sharply, with WTI briefly topping $100 a barrel and Brent nearing $110 before easing late in the week. The spike revived inflation concerns just as the Fed prepared to weigh its next move, adding a fresh supply-side complication to an already delicate policy backdrop.

2️⃣ Core CPI Reaccelerates, Fed Bets Jump

August core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, the fastest pace since April, while headline inflation held at 3.4% year-over-year. Wireless, airfare and software costs drove the upside surprise. The market-implied probability of a September rate hike climbed to roughly 87-90% by Friday, up sharply from earlier in the week.

3️⃣ Producer Prices Firm Ahead of CPI

Producer prices rose 0.4% in August, accelerating from July's 0.1% gain and up 5.4% year-over-year, with energy costs driving much of the increase. Core PPI rose a softer 0.2% on the month but climbed to 4.6% annually, reinforcing the case that pipeline price pressures were building even before Friday's CPI print.

4️⃣ Treasury Yields Climb on Inflation, Supply

The 10-year Treasury yield rose to roughly 4.97% and the two-year climbed above 4.63% as investors priced in firmer inflation and digested heavy issuance alongside a smaller-than-expected buyback operation. Rising yields added to the week's headwinds for equities, particularly rate-sensitive and higher-multiple sectors.

5️⃣ Consumer Sentiment Falls for Second Month

The University of Michigan's preliminary September sentiment index dropped to 47.8 from 51.7, as resurgent fuel prices and trade tensions weighed on households' outlook. Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 4.6% from 4.0%, the highest reading since June, even as labor market data showed little sign of deterioration.

6️⃣ Earnings Strength Offsets Macro Headwinds

Third-quarter S&P 500 earnings are tracking toward 27% year-over-year growth, extending a string of double-digit gains and helping cushion sentiment against rising yields and oil. Strategists note the Fed's current gap versus market rates looks narrower than in 2022, favouring a pairing of mega-cap tech leadership with select cyclical value exposure.

S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

Energy was the standout performer as the run-up in oil lifted producer names, with Communication Services and Technology also outperforming the broader market. Health Care and Materials lagged badly, while Real Estate, Consumer Staples, Financials, Utilities, Industrials and Consumer Discretionary all finished lower as rising yields pressured rate-sensitive groups. The narrow breadth of gainers against a broad list of decliners underscored how concentrated this week's pockets of strength were.

(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

Technical Snapshot

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite pulled back toward near-term support after several weeks of gains, while the Dow's steeper decline reflected weaker breadth beneath the surface. Rising yields and oil prices added to short-term volatility ahead of the Fed's policy decision. All three benchmarks remain in sideways consolidation just below their recent highs, with a decisive break needed to confirm the next directional move.

📊 Weekly charts:

🇨🇳 China / Hong Kong

Market Overview

China and Hong Kong equities fell for the week, with Hong Kong underperforming the mainland. The CSI 300 declined 0.83%, the Shanghai Composite (SSE) fell 1.07%, and the Hang Seng Index (HSI) dropped 3.30% in local-currency terms, as elevated oil prices and rising U.S. Treasury yields weighed on regional risk appetite. Trading in China's AI-related tech names was especially volatile amid dilution concerns and intensifying price competition. (Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables above.)

Index Weekly Performance

- CSI 300: -0.83%

- Shanghai Composite (SSE): -1.07%

- Hang Seng Index (HSI): -3.30%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Beijing Broadens Bank Recapitalisation

China announced RMB 360 billion (USD 54 billion) in fresh capital for eight state-owned banks, policy institutions and insurers, funded mainly through special Treasury bonds. Agricultural Bank of China and ICBC also announced A-share placements. Several large banks and insurers weakened as markets absorbed the dilution implications, even as the move aims to strengthen core capital buffers.

2️⃣ Exports Stay Resilient, Domestic Demand Uneven

China's exports rose 25.0% year-over-year in August, accelerating from July, supported by strong tech shipments tied to the global AI build-out. Imports grew 28.2%, widening the trade surplus to USD 119.1 billion. Passenger-car retail sales fell 24% year-over-year, however, highlighting a still-uneven domestic recovery.

3️⃣ Inflation Picks Up on Energy, Upstream Costs

Consumer price inflation rose to 0.8% year-over-year from 0.5%, while producer prices increased 3.8%, up from 3.5%, as energy and raw material costs climbed. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, held at a modest 1.0%, suggesting the pickup was driven more by input costs than a broad strengthening in domestic demand.

4️⃣ AI Names Swing on Dilution, Competition

Several Hong Kong-listed AI model developers fell sharply this week on dilution concerns and intensifying price competition following a lower-cost model release from a domestic rival, even as Tencent-backed Enflame Technology surged roughly 179% on its STAR Market debut. The divergence underscored how selective sentiment toward China tech has become.

5️⃣ Maybank Flags Bank and Energy Picks

Maybank favours China Merchants Bank for its strengthening wealth-management franchise and Ping An Insurance for improving business quality, both offering dividend yields of roughly 4-6%. It also likes CICC on robust capital-markets activity and CNOOC for its low-cost production base amid elevated oil prices, while flagging a possible near-term rotation toward dividend payers and defensives.

Technical Snapshot

The Hang Seng Index broke below its recent trading range as the 3.30% weekly decline extended a multi-week pullback from prior highs. Breadth was overwhelmingly negative, with decliners outnumbering gainers by a wide margin across the index. The index remains in a near-term downtrend, with a stabilisation in oil prices and Treasury yields likely needed before sentiment improves.

HSI Constituents — Weekly Gainers

Gains were far more limited and concentrated in utilities and telecoms. China Unicom led advancers, followed by CK Infrastructure, CLP Holdings and Power Assets, as investors rotated into defensive, dividend-paying names.

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents' weekly gainers table below.)

HSI Constituents — Weekly Decliners

Weekly decliners were led by consumer, tech and property counters as risk sentiment soured. Haidilao, WH Group and Zhongsheng each fell more than 10%, while heavyweights Alibaba, Tencent and BYD also declined sharply amid the broader tech-led sell-off.

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents' weekly decliners table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

🇸🇬 Singapore

Market Overview

Singapore's Straits Times Index (STI) fell 1.83% for the week, tracking the broader regional sell-off as global risk appetite soured on rising oil prices and Treasury yields. Banking counters led the decline, with UOB, OCBC and DBS all down more than 1.7%, while property names and industrial REITs also came under pressure. A handful of defensive and shipping-related names bucked the trend.

Index Weekly Performance

- Straits Times Index (STI): -1.83%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Banking Trio Leads Index Lower

Singapore's three local banks were among the week's biggest drags on the STI, with DBS down 2.10%, OCBC off 2.08% and UOB down 1.79%, as rising U.S. Treasury yields and risk-off sentiment weighed on financials broadly. The declines mirrored weakness across regional bank stocks amid the global rate repricing.

2️⃣ Property and REITs Under Pressure

Real estate names were among the week's steepest fallers, with City Developments down 5.12% and UOL Group off 4.00%, while several REITs including Mapletree Logistics Trust and CapitaLand Ascendas REIT also declined. Higher-for-longer rate expectations continued to weigh on the sector's valuations.

3️⃣ SGX, Consumer Names Extend Losses

Singapore Exchange fell 3.95% and DFI Retail Group dropped 3.31%, extending recent weakness as trading-sensitive and consumer-facing counters lagged the broader market. Wilmar International also declined nearly 3% amid soft sentiment across agri-commodity plays.

4️⃣ Shipbuilding, Logistics Names Buck the Trend

A handful of counters bucked the broader sell-off, with Yangzijiang Shipbuilding up 0.81% and SATS gaining 0.77%, supported by resilient order books and travel-related demand. The pocket of strength offered a modest counterweight to an otherwise broadly negative week.

Technical Snapshot

The STI slipped below its recent trading range this week, with the 1.83% decline marking one of its steeper weekly losses of the year. Breadth was firmly negative, with the majority of constituents finishing lower, led by banks and property names. The index remains in a near-term pullback, though its solid year-to-date gain leaves it well above where it started 2026. (Refer to the STI weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

📅 Week Ahead (14–18 Sep 2026)

All eyes turn to the Fed's two-day policy meeting, concluding Wednesday, 16 Sep, with markets pricing a high probability of a rate hike alongside updated economic projections and the dot plot. Retail sales, industrial production and housing data round out a data-heavy week, while any further escalation or de-escalation in Middle East tensions will remain a key swing factor for oil and risk sentiment.

In China and Hong Kong, investors will watch for any follow-through on Beijing's bank recapitalisation programme and further A-share placement details from state lenders. Trading in AI-related tech names is likely to stay volatile as the market digests competitive and dilution pressures, while any fresh property or stimulus measures would be closely scrutinised for signs of durable domestic demand support.

Singapore markets will continue to take cues from the regional rate and oil narrative, with banks and REITs likely to stay sensitive to any shift in Fed expectations. Regional trade and manufacturing data releases are also on watch, alongside continued monitoring of shipping and logistics names for signs of relative resilience.

🗓️ Overarching Watchpoint

The single biggest binary risk of the week is the Fed's rate decision itself: a hike delivered alongside hawkish guidance could extend the recent rise in yields and pressure risk assets further, while any softer tone on the pace of future tightening could offer relief across equities and reverse some of this week's losses.

Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports.

Unfamiliar with a term? See the Glossary.

Jobs Beat, Hike Bets Build: Markets Await the Fed

noreply@blogger.com (Fan Jun) — Sat, 05 Sep 2026 05:54:05 +0000

For the week of Sep 4, global markets traded on two competing forces: a hotter-than-expected U.S. labour market and renewed Middle East supply risk. U.S. indices finished narrowly mixed as a strong August payrolls print lifted expectations for a near-term Fed rate hike, while oil and Treasury yields climbed on U.S.–Iran hostilities. China’s mainland benchmarks slipped as momentum in AI-related shares faded, though Hong Kong reversed course with a sharp Friday rally. Singapore stood apart, with the Straits Times Index outperforming on broad strength in the banks.

(Refer to the major indices’ weekly performance tables below.)

🇺🇸 United States

Market Overview

Major U.S. indices finished the week narrowly mixed. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) added 0.40% and the S&P 500 (SPX) edged up 0.09%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) slipped 0.27%. Growth stocks outperformed value by the widest margin in a month on Russell 1000 measures, with energy the standout sector as oil prices rose on renewed Middle East tensions.

Index Weekly Performance

- Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): -0.27%

- S&P 500 (SPX): +0.09%

- Nasdaq Composite (COMP): +0.40%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ August Payrolls Blow Past Expectations

The Labor Department reported 162,000 jobs added in August, well above estimates near 55,000 and up sharply from July’s upwardly revised 21,000. June and July gains were revised a combined 55,000 higher. The unemployment rate held at 4.1% while the labour force participation rate rose to 61.6% from 61.4%.

2️⃣ Softer Signals Beneath the Headline

Secondary labour data was more mixed. July job openings totalled 7.27 million, up from June’s 7.18 million but short of the 7.35 million consensus, while ADP recorded just 38,000 private jobs added in August — the weakest monthly figure since January. Initial claims for the week ended 29 August were 206,000, little changed.

3️⃣ Wage Growth Cools to a Five-Year Low

Average hourly earnings rose 3.1% year-on-year, below July’s 3.2% and the softest reading since 2021, against a 2026 average near 3.5%. The firm reads this as evidence of solid labour demand without wage-price pressure — an important distinction for a Fed weighing whether to tighten.

4️⃣ Oil and Yields Climb on U.S.–Iran Hostilities

The U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes near the Strait of Hormuz for the first time in several weeks, lifting oil sharply on Monday and Tuesday as supply-disruption concerns resurfaced. The 10-year Treasury yield reached roughly 4.82% intraday on Wednesday before retracing, then resumed climbing after Friday’s jobs report.

5️⃣ ISM Surveys Expand but Prices Stay Sticky

ISM manufacturing eased to 54.6 from 55.6 — an eighth straight month of expansion, but below the 55.4 consensus — while its prices index held at 71.1, a 23rd consecutive month of rising raw materials costs. ISM services rose 1.3 points to 55.4, with prices paid at a four-year high.

6️⃣ A Live FOMC, With Expectations Still Anchored

The 16 September meeting is shaping up as a live one, with CME FedWatch odds near 60% for a hike — which would be the first since July 2023. Governor Waller said he would be inclined to hold if disinflation continues, a week after Chair Warsh warned the Fed may have more work to do. Market-based inflation expectations remain in the low-2% range.

S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

Energy was the strongest S&P 500 sector on the week as crude rallied on Middle East supply risk, and it remains the clear year-to-date leader among the sector ETFs. Technology and utilities also finished higher, while health care edged up and financials were unchanged, leaving the SPY tracker with only a marginal weekly gain. Consumer discretionary was the weakest performer, with materials, real estate and industrials also lower. The pattern — energy and technology up, cyclicals and rate-sensitives down — is consistent with the week’s twin drivers of higher oil and higher yields.

(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

Technical Snapshot

The S&P 500 closed at 7,718.60 and the Nasdaq Composite at 26,506.99, while the Dow ended at 53,414.25 after shedding 145.74 points. Year to date the Nasdaq leads at +14.05%, ahead of the S&P 500 at +12.75% and the Dow at +11.13%. With the S&P 500 moving less than a tenth of a percent and the three benchmarks finishing in opposite directions, the weekly charts for the past 4 weeks continue to show sideways consolidation rather than trend — a range that Friday’s CPI print is the most likely candidate to resolve.

📊 Weekly charts:

- DJI weeklychart

- SPX weeklychart

- Nasdaqweekly chart

🇨🇳 China / Hong Kong

Market Overview

Chinese equities diverged. The CSI 300 fell 1.33% and the Shanghai Composite (SSE) declined 0.56% as momentum in AI-related shares faded, while the Hang Seng Index (HSI) rose 0.26% in local currency terms after a sharp 1.74% rally on Friday. Consumer staples, agriculture and media held up relatively better on the mainland, while Hong Kong’s Friday advance was led by technology, consumer and property names.

(Refer to the major indices’ weekly performance tables above.)

Index Weekly Performance

- CSI 300: -1.33%

- Shanghai Composite (SSE): -0.56%

- Hang Seng Index (HSI): +0.26%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ AI Momentum Fades on the Mainland

A midweek rise in oil prices and global bond yields amplified selling in semiconductors and other AI-related growth shares, dragging the CSI 300 to a 1.33% loss. More traditional areas of the market — consumer staples, agriculture and media — held up relatively better, leaving the broader Shanghai Composite with a narrower decline.

2️⃣ Hong Kong’s Friday Rally Flips the Week

The Hang Seng rallied 1.74% on Friday to finish the week in positive territory, led by technology, consumer and property shares after Waller’s comments eased concerns about a near-term U.S. rate increase. Mainland financials topped the constituent table, with CM Bank, Bank of China and CCB all posting mid-to-high single-digit weekly gains.

3️⃣ Beijing Tightens Property Presale Rules

New rules generally require a residential project’s main structure to be topped out before presales begin, with mortgages on presold homes disbursed only after completion is registered. Accompanying credit measures extend development-loan maturities and raise the maximum personal housing loan term from 30 to 40 years.

4️⃣ Developers Sold Off, Then Partly Recovered

Property shares fell sharply when markets reopened on Monday as investors assessed the implications for developer cash flows, with smaller developers among the weakest performers. The sector recovered later in the week and joined Friday’s rally, though CR Land, Longfor and Henderson Land still finished among the index’s heaviest weekly decliners.

5️⃣ Official and Private PMIs Diverge

Official manufacturing PMI improved to 49.8 from 49.2 but stayed below 50 for a second month, with non-manufacturing at 49.0 — its weakest since December 2022. The private RatingDog surveys were firmer: manufacturing 51.5, services 51.4, composite 52.1. Maybank reads the firmer private data as supporting its preference for overseas expanders such as BYD, and resilient leaders including ICBC and China Construction Bank.

Technical Snapshot

The Hang Seng closed at 25,650.87, up 0.26% on the week but only +0.08% year to date — essentially flat since January. The Shanghai Composite ended at 3,930.12, down 22.06 points on the week and −0.98% year to date. Beneath the HSI’s flat headline, breadth was unusually wide: mainland banks gained 7–9% while Zhongsheng, Chow Tai Fook and Xinyi Solar each fell more than 10%, a dispersion that argues for stock selection over index exposure.

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents’ weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

- SSE weeklychart

- HSI weeklychart

🇸🇬 Singapore

Market Overview

The Straits Times Index (STI) was the strongest of the major indices tracked this week, gaining 1.79%, or 102.02 points, to close at 5,801.96. That extends its year-to-date advance to 24.88%, well ahead of regional peers — Malaysia’s KLCI fell 1.03% over the same period. Gains were concentrated at the top of the constituent table, led by the banks and by property counters.

Index Weekly Performance

- Straits Times Index (STI): +1.79%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Banks Drive the Index Higher

OCBC (O39) rose 3.86%, DBS (D05) 3.28% and UOB (U11) 3.02%, making the three lenders the heaviest contributors to the STI’s weekly gain given their index weights. OCBC extends its year-to-date lead at +63.31%, with DBS at +39.55% and UOB at +19.82%.

2️⃣ Property and Conglomerates Add Support

Hongkong Land (H78) was the week’s best-performing constituent at +4.40%, followed by City Developments (C09) at +3.12%. Sembcorp Industries (U96) gained 1.66%, YZJ Shipbuilding (BS6) 0.82% and Keppel (BN4) 0.70%. Both HK Land and CityDev remain in positive territory year to date.

3️⃣ Consumer, Aviation and Services Lag

SATS (S58) was the weakest constituent at −3.24%, with ThaiBev (Y92) at −3.23%, SIA (C6L) at −1.89% and Genting Singapore (G13) at −1.59%. ST Engineering (S63) fell 1.50% and Venture Corp (V03) 1.47%, though both retain double-digit year-to-date gains.

4️⃣ S-REITs Broadly Weaker

Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust (N2IU) fell 3.15% and CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (A17U) 2.06%, with Frasers L&C (BUOU), CapitaLand Integrated Commercial (C38U), Frasers Centrepoint (J69U), Mapletree Logistics (M44U) and Keppel DC REIT (AJBU) all lower. Mapletree Industrial Trust (ME8U) was the sole S-REIT gainer at +0.52%.

Technical Snapshot

The STI closed at 5,801.96, its 102-point advance the largest in absolute terms among the seven benchmarks tracked this week. At +24.88% year to date it is comfortably the strongest performer in the table. Breadth was narrower than the headline suggests — 11 of 30 constituents advanced against 17 decliners and two unchanged — indicating the move was carried by the index’s heaviest weights rather than by the broad market.

(Refer to the STI weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

- STI weeklychart

📅 Week Ahead (7–11 Sep 2026)

U.S. markets are closed on Monday 7 Sep for Labor Day, which should thin early-week activity. August PPI lands on Thursday 10 Sep, followed by the August CPI report on Friday 11 Sep — the final inflation print before the FOMC decision on Wednesday 16 Sep, with consensus at 3.4% headline and 2.4% core. The University of Michigan preliminary sentiment index also arrives on Friday.

China’s August CPI is due on Wednesday 9 Sep, following July’s +0.5% year-on-year reading. With the official and private PMI surveys pointing in different directions, the print will test whether domestic demand is genuinely firming. August trade and credit aggregates follow later in the month.

Singapore’s domestic docket is light, with August NODX not due until mid-month. Regional direction is therefore likely to be set externally — by China’s CPI midweek and the U.S. inflation print on Friday. The ECB rate decision on Thursday 10 Sep adds a further cross-asset variable.

🗓️ Overarching Watchpoint

Friday’s U.S. August CPI is the single binary risk of the week. With CME FedWatch odds near 60% for a hike on 16 September, an in-line or cooler print would validate Waller’s case for holding and relieve pressure on rate-sensitive equities in the U.S. and Hong Kong alike. A reacceleration would move a first hike since July 2023 close to a done deal — and oil’s renewed Middle East premium makes that outcome more plausible than it looked a month ago.

Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports.

A Clearer Path into Sep: NVIDIA Delivers, Warsh Warns

noreply@blogger.com (Fan Jun) — Sat, 29 Aug 2026 13:51:14 +0000

For the week of Aug 28, two of the year’s most consequential events landed within 48 hours of each other. U.S. equities finished higher across the major benchmarks as NVIDIA’s results reignited the AI trade, even as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh struck a hawkish tone at Jackson Hole that lifted short-dated yields and revived expectations of a rate hike. China and Hong Kong diverged, with mainland semiconductor and AI-hardware names rallying while Hong Kong lagged on a large Alibaba equity placement and broad internet weakness. Singapore eked out a marginal gain, with shipbuilders and telcos offsetting softness in REITs and Hong Kong-linked constituents.

(Refer to the major indices’ weekly performance tables below.)

________________________________________

🇺🇸 United States

Market Overview

U.S. indices closed higher across the majors in a week defined by NVIDIA’s earnings and Warsh’s Jackson Hole debut, though trading volumes were generally light and mid- and smaller-cap benchmarks lost ground. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) led with a gain of 0.85%, followed by the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) at 0.53% and the S&P 500 (SPX) at 0.49%. Declining oil prices and an in-line core PCE reading helped offset a hawkish repricing at the front end of the Treasury curve.

Index Weekly Performance

- Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): +0.53%

- S&P 500 (SPX): +0.49%

- Nasdaq Composite (COMP): +0.85%

August Monthly Performance

August closed with the major U.S. benchmarks still carrying solid year-to-date advances — the Nasdaq Composite up 13.60%, the S&P 500 up 12.65% and the Dow up 11.44% — with the month’s two defining catalysts arriving only in its final week. NVIDIA’s results reaffirmed that AI capital spending continues to accelerate, while Warsh’s Jackson Hole address removed lingering doubt over the Fed’s inflation target and its willingness to act. Investors therefore enter a seasonally weak September with materially more clarity on both the AI growth story and the policy backdrop than they had a month ago.

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Warsh Reaffirms 2% Target, Keeps Hikes Alive

Warsh struck a hawkish tone on Friday, describing the economy as resilient and financial conditions as not restrictive, while underlying inflation has not improved enough to declare victory. He reaffirmed the 2% PCE target as firm and signalled further tightening remains possible. Futures markets lifted implied odds of a September hike to roughly 60%, from about 35% beforehand.

2️⃣ NVIDIA Delivers a Blowout Quarter and Guide

Fiscal second-quarter revenue surged 106% year over year, extending a 15-quarter streak of beats, with third-quarter guidance well ahead of expectations. Management projected revenue growth near 70% next year against consensus around 46%, and was explicit that the outlook is supply-constrained — customer demand implies growth closer to 100%. Shares rose 8.7% on Thursday.

3️⃣ Core PCE In Line, Headline Runs Hotter

The headline PCE price index rose 0.2% in July and 3.7% from a year earlier, both firmer than economists anticipated. Core PCE rose 0.2% monthly and 3.3% annually, matching expectations and limiting the market reaction. Consumer surveys stayed downbeat, with University of Michigan sentiment falling to 51.7 in August from 55.2 in July.

4️⃣ Curve Flattens on Hawkish Repricing

The two-year Treasury yield rose notably after Warsh’s remarks as investors priced a higher probability of a near-term hike, while 10- and 30-year yields moved up only modestly. Edward Jones argues elevated long yields remain a valuation constraint rather than a threat to the economy or corporate earnings, with the 10-year still below nominal GDP growth.

5️⃣ Labour and Goods Data Stay Firm

Durable goods orders rose a stronger-than-expected 1.1% in July, driven largely by transportation equipment. Initial jobless claims unexpectedly declined to 203,000, with the four-week moving average stable, suggesting layoffs remain limited. The combination supports Warsh’s characterisation of an economy resilient enough to absorb a firmer policy stance.

6️⃣ September Seasonality Meets a Constructive Backdrop

September is historically the weakest month for equities, an effect often amplified in midterm election years. Analysts note that past weakness typically arrived when markets were already under pressure — not the case today, with earnings growth fast, credit spreads tight and volatility low. It continues to favour a mix of AI and cyclical exposure.

S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

Sector leadership tracked the week’s two catalysts closely. Communication Services and Technology led the index higher on the back of NVIDIA’s results and a broader recovery in software, while Financials also outperformed as the front end of the curve repriced. The laggards were defensive and rate-sensitive: Health Care fell furthest, with Industrials, Real Estate and Energy also finishing lower, the latter pressured as Brent settled below $90 amid hopes of restored energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Breadth was narrow — only three of the eleven sectors finished the week in positive territory.

(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

Technical Snapshot

The S&P 500 closed at 7,711.76 and the Nasdaq Composite at 26,402.42, both extending modest gains without the decisive breakout that would confirm a fresh leg higher. The Dow ended at 53,559.99, its advance narrower than the headline suggests given weakness across industrial and health care constituents. On the weekly charts, SPX, the Nasdaq and the DJI all remain in sideways consolidation just below their recent highs, though general weekly uptrend well intact for all the three.

📊 Weekly charts:

- DJI weeklychart

- SPX weeklychart

________________________________________

🇨🇳 China / Hong Kong

Market Overview

China equities were mixed, with mainland markets proving more resilient than Hong Kong. The Shanghai Composite (SSE) rose 1.20% as semiconductor and AI-related shares rallied strongly midweek following NVIDIA’s results, while the CSI 300 slipped 0.21% and the Hang Seng Index (HSI) fell 1.63% in local currency terms. Hong Kong lagged as weakness among several large internet and consumer companies earlier in the week outweighed gains in selected technology stocks.

(Refer to the major indices’ weekly performance tables above.)

Index Weekly Performance

- CSI 300: -0.21%

- Shanghai Composite (SSE): +1.20%

- Hang Seng Index (HSI): -1.63%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Alibaba Placement Reopens the AI Returns Debate

Alibaba’s HKD80 billion (USD10.2 billion) equity placement weighed on Hong Kong technology shares early in the week and renewed scrutiny of the capital required to build AI infrastructure. Completed on Wednesday, proceeds will fund computing capacity, hyperscale data centres and cloud upgrades. Alibaba ended the week down 7.40%.

2️⃣ Domestic AI Ecosystem Turns More Competitive

Z.AI unveiled its lower-cost GLM-5.3-Flash model, saying it ran entirely on Chinese AI chips during testing, while MiniMax reported first-half revenue up 283% year over year. Alibaba released Qwen3.8-Flash, claiming improved performance at lower training cost. Investors are differentiating sharply between infrastructure beneficiaries and platforms still proving monetisation.

3️⃣ Industrial Profits Slow for a Third Month

July industrial profit growth eased to 11.2% year over year from 15.1% in June, with the seven-month figure at 17.6% against 18.7% for the first half. Profits in computer, communications and electronic equipment more than doubled year to date, while automobiles and electrical machinery declined — an uneven recovery mirrored in equity leadership.

4️⃣ ChangXin Memory Posts Blowout First Half

ChangXin Memory (688825.SH) reported first-half revenue of RMB150.3 billion, up 873.6%, and attributable profit of RMB77.6 billion against a prior-year loss — well above its IPO prospectus range. Main-business gross margin reached 84.8% as DRAM shortages lifted both prices and volumes. No dividend was proposed.

5️⃣ Second-Quarter Results Favour Tech and Healthcare

Maybank notes more than 60% of MSCI China constituents have reported, with around half beating. Technology and healthcare led growth while consumer staples lagged, underlining still-weak domestic consumption. Large-cap internet results were mixed: cloud, AI and gaming trends held up, but elevated AI capex weighed on free cash flow and near-term earnings expectations.

Technical Snapshot

The Hang Seng closed at 25,584.79, down 1.63% on the week and back into marginally negative territory year to date. Breadth was poor, with losses concentrated in exporters, logistics and consumer names — Shenzhou International, OOIL and Zhongsheng each fell more than 10% — while pharmaceutical and energy names including Hansoh and Sinopec led the gainers. The Shanghai Composite’s close at 3,952.18 leaves the mainland index probing the 4,000 level, and the divergence between the two markets is likely to persist while AI-hardware leadership sits onshore.

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents’ weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

- SSE weeklychart

- HSI weeklychart

________________________________________

🇸🇬 Singapore

Market Overview

The Straits Times Index (STI) closed the week up 0.19% at 5,699.93, a marginal gain that masked a sharp split beneath the surface. Shipbuilders, telcos and the exchange advanced, while REITs and Hong Kong-listed constituents sold off. The index remains the region’s standout performer this year, up 22.68% year to date.

Index Weekly Performance

- Straits Times Index (STI): +0.19%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Narrow Gain Masks a Two-Speed Market

The STI’s 0.19% advance rested on a thin base, with just 11 of its 30 constituents closing higher. Yangzijiang Shipbuilding led at +2.94%, followed by Singtel at +2.73%, Wilmar at +2.70% and SGX at +2.49%. A handful of large-cap gains carried an index whose tail was firmly negative.

2️⃣ Banks Contribute Little in Either Direction

The three local banks barely moved: UOB rose 0.62%, OCBC 0.29% and DBS 0.20%. With no results due, the trio drifted with the global rates backdrop rather than any local catalyst. Year to date the divergence is wide — OCBC is up 57.24%, DBS 35.11% and UOB 16.31%.

3️⃣ REITs Sag as Long Yields Stay Elevated

Rate-sensitive names were among the week’s weakest. Keppel DC REIT fell 2.65%, Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust 1.59%, Frasers Centrepoint Trust 1.37% and CapitaLand Ascendas REIT 1.22%, while Mapletree Industrial Trust was unchanged. Almost every S-REIT in the index remains negative year to date.

4️⃣ Hong Kong-Linked Names Drag the Tail

The steepest declines came from constituents with Hong Kong exposure, tracking the Hang Seng lower: Jardine Matheson fell 4.83%, DFI Retail 3.55% and Hongkong Land 3.19%. UOL dropped 3.87% and Genting Singapore 3.82%, leaving property and gaming among the weakest performers on the week.

(Refer to the STI weekly performance table below.)

Technical Snapshot

The STI’s close at 5,699.93 leaves it sitting right on the 5,700 handle after another week of incremental progress. Momentum has visibly slowed from the pace set earlier in the year, with the index grinding rather than trending. A sustained break above 5,700 would keep the uptrend intact, while failure there points to consolidation into September.

📊 Weekly charts:

- STI weeklychart

________________________________________

📅 Week Ahead (31 Aug – 4 Sep 2026)

The U.S. calendar is dominated by labour data. JOLTS job openings for July land on Tuesday, 1 Sep, ahead of the August employment situation report on Friday, 4 Sep — the first major labour reading since Jackson Hole and a direct input into September rate pricing. ISM’s manufacturing and services surveys also print during the week.

China’s official NBS purchasing managers’ indices for August are due on Monday, 31 Aug, with the Caixin manufacturing gauge following at the start of September. After industrial profit growth slowed for a third consecutive month, the surveys will test whether the gap between AI-linked manufacturing and domestic demand is widening. Hong Kong’s interim results season winds down.

Singapore’s August PMI readings are released early in the week alongside regional manufacturing surveys. With no major local corporate events scheduled, the STI is likely to take its direction from U.S. rate expectations and Hong Kong. Malaysia’s KLCI enters the week on the back foot after slipping 0.61%.

🗓️ Overarching Watchpoint

Friday’s August payrolls report is the week’s single binary risk. Warsh has told markets the Fed still has work to do, and futures now put roughly 60% odds on a September hike; a firm payroll print with a stable unemployment rate would harden that pricing and push front-end yields higher into the 15–16 Sep FOMC. A clear miss would do the opposite. Equity markets, having just repriced higher on NVIDIA’s numbers, are carrying little cushion for a hawkish surprise.

________________________________________

Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports.

Yields Steal the Spotlight: Equities Take a Breather

noreply@blogger.com (Fan Jun) — Sun, 23 Aug 2026 11:51:28 +0000

For the week of Aug 21, global equities lost ground as a sharp climb in long-term U.S. Treasury yields — with the 30-year reaching its highest level since 2007 — soured risk appetite and pressured technology and AI-related shares. In the U.S., the major benchmarks retreated even as August business activity accelerated and corporate earnings stayed resilient. Chinese markets diverged, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng surging on a health-care rally while mainland gauges slipped on a broad July activity slowdown. In Singapore, the Straits Times Index eased as outsized losses in a few heavyweights outweighed gains among property and offshore-marine names.

(Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables below.)

🇺🇸 United States

Market Overview

U.S. equities finished lower across the board as elevated Treasury yields, renewed U.S.–Iran tensions, higher oil prices, and weakness in semiconductor and AI-related shares weighed on sentiment. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) led the retreat, dropping 2.05%, followed by the S&P 500 (SPX) at -1.43%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) held up best, easing 0.85%. Mixed retail earnings reports added to a cautious tone that persisted even as data pointed to accelerating business activity.

Index Weekly Performance

- Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): -0.85%

- S&P 500 (SPX): -1.43%

- Nasdaq Composite (COMP): -2.05%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Treasury Yields Climb to Multi-Year Highs

Long-term Treasury yields rose sharply, with the 30-year yield reaching its highest level since 2007. Concerns over the U.S. fiscal outlook and heavy government and corporate debt issuance — including financing tied to AI capital spending — drove the sell-off, while higher oil prices amid renewed U.S.–Iran tensions added to inflation worries.

2️⃣ Treasury Buyback Offers Only Fleeting Relief

Treasuries briefly rallied after the Treasury Department said it would at least double its planned long-term debt buybacks from September, lifting purchases to at least $4 billion per operation. The 30-year yield posted its largest daily decline in over a year, but much of the move reversed as investors questioned whether the program could offset broader pressures. Edward Jones expects the 10-year yield to trade between 4.5% and 5.0% for the rest of the year.

3️⃣ Fed Minutes Underscore Inflation Uncertainty

Minutes from the Fed's July meeting showed participants generally expected inflation to moderate through year-end, but described their outlooks as "highly uncertain" with risks skewed to the upside. Officials noted that further policy tightening would likely be necessary if inflation failed to decline, reinforcing a cautious tone on the rate path.

4️⃣ Business Activity Accelerates Sharply

The S&P Global Flash Composite PMI jumped to 56.0 in August from 54.5, its highest reading since April 2022, led by strength in services. Employment rose at its fastest pace since January 2025, while the Empire State and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing gauges both beat estimates and hit their highest levels since 2021.

5️⃣ Corporate Earnings Growth Stays Robust

Per Edward Jones, S&P 500 second-quarter earnings are on pace to grow more than 48% year over year, with full-year 2026 earnings tracking a 31% gain. Strength extended beyond mega-cap technology, with small- and mid-cap earnings also expected to rise more than 20%, underpinning a constructive medium-term equity backdrop.

6️⃣ Housing Stays Soft as Rates Bite

Housing data remained weak: pending home sales fell 2.3% in July to their lowest since January, and housing starts dropped more than 12%. The NAHB homebuilder index edged up but stayed subdued, with the average 30-year mortgage rate at 6.65%. Edward Jones continues to favor equities over fixed income, preferring U.S. large- and mid-cap and emerging-market stocks.

S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

Sector performance was sharply divided, reflecting a rotation away from growth. Health Care led decisively, while Energy and Materials also finished higher as oil firmed and value-oriented pockets found support. At the other end, Technology was the weakest sector amid the pullback in semiconductor and AI-related names, with Utilities and Industrials also lagging as higher yields pressured rate-sensitive and capital-intensive groups. The wide dispersion underscored how the surge in long-term yields reshaped leadership beneath the index surface.

(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

Technical Snapshot

The S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq Composite (COMP) pulled back from record territory, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq bearing the brunt of the AI-led selling while the Dow Jones (DJI) proved more resilient given its lighter growth weighting. Momentum cooled after August's run to fresh highs, leaving near-term direction closely tied to the path of Treasury yields. On the charts, the major indices appear to be entering a phase of sideways consolidation just below their recent peaks, digesting the rate-driven pullback rather than signaling a decisive trend reversal. Watch SPX pullback to where it was break-out previously, see wether it can hold at resistance-turn-support 7610-7630 area.

📊 Weekly charts:

🇨🇳 China / Hong Kong

Market Overview

Chinese equities diverged sharply, with Hong Kong sharply outpacing the mainland. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (HSI) jumped 3.55%, powered by a strong rally in health-care and pharmaceutical names, while the Shanghai Composite (SSE) slipped 0.56% and the CSI 300 fell 1.01% as a broad July activity slowdown and a pullback in semiconductor and robotics shares weighed on the mainland. (Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables above.)

Index Weekly Performance

- CSI 300: -1.01%

- Shanghai Composite (SSE): -0.56%

- Hang Seng Index (HSI): +3.55%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Hong Kong Diverges on Health-Care Rally

The Hang Seng Index surged 3.55%, driven by a broad advance in health-care and biotech names including Sino Biopharm, WuXi Bio, Innovent and BeOne Medicines. The rotation into Hong Kong-listed large caps lifted the benchmark even as mainland indices lagged, marking a clear divergence in regional sentiment for the week.

2️⃣ July Activity Data Disappoint Broadly

China's July data softened across the board: industrial output grew 4.5% year over year (down from 5.3%), retail sales rose just 0.6%, and fixed-asset investment contracted 6.7% for the first seven months. Maybank KE likewise flagged the softening momentum, strengthening the case for further fiscal and monetary support.

3️⃣ Property Slump Persists as Policy Support Expands

Real estate investment shrank 19.2% year over year through July, while new home prices dipped 0.1% month on month. Authorities rolled out fresh support: from September 20, residents may withdraw Housing Provident Fund savings for more purposes, and Shanghai further eased down-payment requirements for second-home purchases beyond the outer ring.

4️⃣ Embodied-AI Fervor Grips the IPO Market

Humanoid-robot maker Unitree Robotics closed 460% higher on its Shanghai debut, having earlier spiked over 600%, with the offering more than 8,000 times oversubscribed. The listing — following memory-chipmaker CXMT's blockbuster July IPO — highlighted intense appetite for "embodied AI," even as chip and robotics stocks pulled back globally during the week.

5️⃣ Maybank Favors Structural-Priority Names

Maybank prefers companies aligned with China's structural priorities: Shanghai Biren for domestic AI-computing exposure, Sunny Optical for its "Optics + AI" strategy and smartphone premiumisation, Kuaishou for AI-driven monetisation despite mixed 2Q26 results, and Galaxy Entertainment for a Macau recovery ahead of National Day Golden Week.

Technical Snapshot

The Hang Seng Index (HSI) broke sharply higher, back to its 2-month high, powered by health-care leadership and a rotation into Hong Kong-listed large caps, extending its recovery even as mainland benchmarks stalled. The Shanghai Composite (SSE) and CSI 300 stayed rangebound-to-soft, pressured by weak macro data and profit-taking in chip and robotics names. Near-term, the HSI's momentum looks constructive provided policy support follows through, though mainland gauges may remain capped until activity data stabilise.

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents' weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

🇸🇬 Singapore

Market Overview

Singapore's Straits Times Index (STI) eased 0.95% for the week, pulling back from near record levels. Declines were concentrated in a handful of heavyweights — most notably SATS, alongside the local banks UOB and OCBC and industrial name ST Engineering — while property and offshore-marine counters such as Sembcorp Industries, UOL and Yangzijiang Shipbuilding advanced. The benchmark nonetheless held on to a year-to-date gain of 22.44%. (Refer to the STI weekly performance table below.)

Index Weekly Performance

- Straits Times Index (STI): -0.95%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ STI Eases from Elevated Levels

The Straits Times Index slipped 0.95% over the week, with decliners outnumbering gainers among the index heavyweights. Despite the pullback, the benchmark retained a robust year-to-date gain of 22.44%, keeping it among the region's stronger performers in 2026.

2️⃣ SATS Leads Decliners with a Steep Drop

SATS was by far the week's weakest STI constituent, tumbling 13.22% and dwarfing every other index move. Even after the sharp decline, the ground-handling and in-flight-catering group remained modestly positive year-to-date at +6.82%.

3️⃣ Banks Diverge as UOB and OCBC Retreat

The local lenders traded unevenly: UOB fell 3.04% and OCBC declined 2.55%, while DBS bucked the trend with a 0.62% gain. Year-to-date, the trio stayed firmly higher, led by OCBC at +56.78%, DBS at +34.85% and UOB at +15.60%.

Singapore Spotlight — UltraGreen.ai (ULG)

The week's standout SGX move came from outside the STI. Fluorescence-guided-surgery play UltraGreen.ai (ULG) collapsed roughly 49% after Zydus secured 180-day FDA competitive-generic exclusivity for a generic indocyanine green (ICG) dye on 4 August, with Provepharm's Zyogreen also advancing toward the U.S. market. DBS downgraded the stock to HOLD from BUY and cut its 12-month target to USD0.80 (from USD1.95), noting the shares now discount its "Bear 1" scenario of a 20% ASP decline and 5% volume decline. Not all houses are as cautious — some argue new entrants need years to build supply and hospital/GPO relationships, leaving UltraGreen's long-established regulatory dossier and imaging platform as a durable moat. The split view keeps the stock an overhang until competitor pricing and commercial traction become clearer.

Technical Snapshot

The Straits Times Index (STI) pulled back after trading near multi-year highs, with the retreat driven largely by outsized losses in a few heavyweights rather than broad-based selling. Breadth was mixed, as gains in property and offshore-marine counters offset weakness in the banks and SATS. Near-term, the index's elevated year-to-date position leaves it sensitive to profit-taking, though the broader uptrend remains intact absent a wider risk-off shift.

📊 Weekly charts:

🌐 Beyond Equities — Cross-Asset Watch

The same rates catalyst that pressured equities rippled across other assets this week, with gold the standout beneficiary.

- Gold: Spot hit a three-month high near US$4,540–4,600/oz on Friday, up ~4–5% on the week — a third straight weekly gain.

- WTI Crude: Held above US$85/bbl as renewed U.S.–Iran tensions and Strait of Hormuz risk kept energy prices bid.

- US Dollar: Softened broadly, with the Treasury's buyback-driven liquidity signal weighing on the greenback.

- Treasury Yields: The 30-year spiked to ~5.34%, its highest since 2007, before the buyback expansion pulled the long end back.

Gold in Focus

The rally's fuel has shifted from the earlier Singapore/Hong Kong gold-hub and PBOC-buying narrative to U.S. rates plumbing. The Treasury's move to double long-dated buybacks — with Secretary Bessent signalling further support if needed — pushed yields and the dollar lower and reignited bullion. A softer dollar makes gold cheaper for non-USD buyers, lifting the whole precious-metals complex. Singapore investors can track the move via GLD (SPDR Gold Shares) and its SGX-listed lines O87 (US$) and GSD (S$), or COMEX futures (/GC), with the December contract trading around US$4,620.

📌 Analyst Calls This Week

Notable rating, target-price and house-view changes across the coverage universe:

- DBS — UltraGreen.ai (ULG): Downgrade to HOLD from BUY; 12-month TP cut to USD0.80 from USD1.95 on rising generic-competition risk to ASPs.

- Maybank KE — China structural plays: Reiterates preference for Shanghai Biren, Sunny Optical, Kuaishou and Galaxy Entertainment as beneficiaries of China's policy priorities.

📅 Week Ahead (24–28 Aug 2026)

The U.S. calendar is unusually heavy. Nvidia reports fiscal Q2 results after the close on Aug 26 — a key barometer for the AI complex following the week's semiconductor weakness — alongside the July PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. The Jackson Hole symposium (Aug 27–29) then takes center stage, headlined by Chair Kevin Warsh's first keynote as Fed chief.

In China, markets will look for fresh policy signals after the soft July activity and property data, with industrial-profits figures also due. Sentiment in Hong Kong will hinge on whether the health-care-led rally can broaden, while momentum in "embodied-AI" and technology IPOs remains a focal point.

Locally, investors will monitor Singapore's July inflation and industrial-production prints for a read on the domestic economy. Regional markets will otherwise take their cue from Jackson Hole and the Nvidia print, both of which could set the tone for Asian risk appetite into month-end.

🗓️ Overarching Watchpoint

The single biggest binary risk is Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole debut. With long-term yields at multi-year highs and the July FOMC minutes flagging upside inflation risks, any hawkish or dovish tilt in his address on the rate path could drive an outsized move across equities, rates and currencies heading into September's policy meeting.

Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports.

Cooling Inflation, Patient Fed: Global Markets Diverge

noreply@blogger.com (Fan Jun) — Sat, 15 Aug 2026 13:32:14 +0000

For the week of Aug 14, a lighter data calendar and a fresh batch of cooling inflation prints set a constructive tone for global equities, even as regional performance sharply diverged. In the U.S., softer July CPI and PPI readings eased fears of renewed price pressure and trimmed bets on a September Fed hike, helping the S&P 500 grind to fresh record highs. China and Hong Kong slipped, dragged by internet heavyweights and a tax-driven sell-off in insurers despite pockets of strength in optical and property names. Singapore bucked the regional softness, with the Straits Times Index nudging to a new high on gains in shipbuilders and industrials.

(Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables below.)

🇺🇸 United States

Market Overview

U.S. equities finished mixed as cooling inflation and easing Fed-hike expectations were offset by softer consumer data and rising oil prices. The S&P 500 (SPX) added 0.36% to a fresh record while the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) was little changed at +0.14%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lagged, slipping 0.56%. Small- and mid-caps outperformed, with the Russell 2000 and S&P MidCap 400 each gaining over 1%.

Index Weekly Performance

– Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): -0.56%

– S&P 500 (SPX): +0.36%

– Nasdaq Composite (COMP): +0.14%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ July Inflation Resumes Its Downward Trend

Headline CPI rose 0.1% in July and 3.4% year over year, down from June's 3.5%, while core CPI eased to 2.5% from 2.6% — both in line with estimates. Cooler-than-expected producer prices followed, with headline PPI slowing to 4.7% from 5.5%, reinforcing the disinflation narrative and easing fears that price pressures were broadening.

2️⃣ September Rate-Hike Odds Fade

The softer prints pushed futures-implied odds of a September Fed hike to roughly 32% by Friday, down from about 52% earlier in the week, per CME FedWatch. With the next meeting not until mid-September, patience — favoured by nine of twelve voters in July — looks likely to prevail again.

3️⃣ Consumer Data Disappoints

Retail sales fell 0.6% in July, the sharpest monthly drop since May 2025, while the University of Michigan's preliminary August sentiment reading slid 4.2 points to 51. The soft data tempered risk appetite but also eased near-term pressure on the Fed to tighten.

4️⃣ Treasury Yields Diverge

Shorter-term yields fell as hike bets receded, while long-end yields stayed elevated on heavy supply and fiscal concerns. The 10-year note auction cleared at its highest yield since 2007 and the 30-year at its highest since 2001, underscoring persistent term-premium pressure.

5️⃣ Earnings and Momentum Still Supportive

Edward Jones notes 2026 S&P 500 earnings-growth estimates now exceed 30%, with broad-based upward revisions and every sector expected to post positive growth. Coupled with Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracking Q3 near 4%, the fundamental backdrop remains a source of strength for equities.

6️⃣ Volatility Near 2026 Lows

The CBOE Volatility Index revisited its 2026 lows during the quieter week, reflecting calmer positioning even amid Middle East diplomacy headlines. Edward Jones favours diversification with an opportunistic lean toward equities rather than betting on any single inflation outcome.

S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

Sector breadth was broadly positive, led decisively by Energy as firmer oil prices lifted the group well clear of the pack. Defensive and rate-sensitive corners — Utilities, Communication Services, Consumer Staples and Technology — also advanced, while Financials, Industrials and Real Estate posted modest gains. Materials slipped and Consumer Discretionary was the clear laggard, weighed by the week's softer consumer data.

(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

Technical Snapshot

The SPX printed fresh all-time highs, extending its uptrend as breadth improved into small- and mid-caps. The Nasdaq held near previous record territory but stalled, while the DJI slipped and underperformed the broader tape. All three indexes remain in constructive uptrends near their highs.

📊 Weekly charts:

– DJI weekly chart

– SPX weekly chart

– Nasdaq weekly chart

🇨🇳 China / Hong Kong

Market Overview

China equities were choppy and ended lower, with Hong Kong underperforming. The Shanghai Composite (SSE) edged down 0.33% and the CSI 300 fell 0.61% in local-currency terms, as early strength in consumer and property names faded on losses in precious-metals stocks. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (HSI) dropped 2.15%, weighed by internet heavyweights and mixed corporate earnings.

(Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables above.)

Index Weekly Performance

– CSI 300: -0.61%

– Shanghai Composite (SSE): -0.33%

– Hang Seng Index (HSI): -2.15%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ China Inflation Cools to Multi-Month Lows

CPI rose just 0.5% year over year in July, a six-month low and down from 1% in June, as the oil-price shock from the U.S.–Iran war faded and food prices softened; core CPI eased to 0.9%. PPI growth slowed to 3.5% from 4.1%, its first moderation since producer inflation turned positive earlier this year.

2️⃣ Insurers Sell Off on Offshore Tax Crackdown

Stricter enforcement of taxes on offshore insurance income triggered a sell-off in Hong Kong financials, hitting insurers hardest. Maybank KE calls the reaction overdone, staying positive on AIA — viewed as oversold — and constructive on China Life on prospects for capital rotating back onshore.

3️⃣ Tencent Kicks Off a Mixed Earnings Season

Tencent opened China's reporting season with solid growth across gaming, advertising and cloud, though sentiment was tempered by rising capex. With results now flowing, earnings are likely to set fresh direction; Maybank KE also flags MiniMax as attractive on potential index-inclusion catalysts.

4️⃣ Beijing Eases Homebuying Curbs

Authorities relaxed purchase rules for nonresidents within the Fifth Ring Road, cutting the required contribution period to one year from two and lifting provident-fund loan limits. The measures echo earlier Shanghai easing and lifted property developers, offering modest support to sentiment.

5️⃣ Hang Seng Tech Index Set to Expand

Hang Seng Indexes plans to grow the tech gauge from 30 to 50 constituents, adding AI and robotics names and selecting ten by sales growth rather than market cap. Final revisions are targeted for end-September, with implementation at the December 2026 rebalancing.

Technical Snapshot

The HSI broke lower, sliding 2.15% to close near 25,117 as internet leaders led declines. Momentum has cooled after recent strength, with the index now testing support after failing to hold higher levels. A sustained recovery hinges on stabilisation in tech heavyweights and clearer signals from the earnings season.

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents' weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

– SSE weekly chart

– HSI weekly chart

🇸🇬 Singapore

Market Overview

The Straits Times Index (STI) outperformed the region, rising 0.79% to a fresh high near 5,744 as gains in shipbuilders, industrials and OCBC outweighed weakness in aviation and offshore names. Breadth was mixed, with sharp single-stock moves in both directions across the blue chips.

(Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables above.)

Index Weekly Performance

– Straits Times Index (STI): +0.79%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Shipbuilders and Industrials Lead

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding jumped 10.0% and Hongkong Land added 8.8%, while ST Engineering rose 6.2% and Genting Singapore gained 7.3%. The index's advance was powered by cyclical and industrial names even as several REITs and offshore counters lagged.

2️⃣ OCBC Powers the Banks' Divergence

OCBC surged 4.9% and now leads the local banks at +60.9% year to date, while DBS and UOB slipped 1.1% and 3.5% respectively. The split left the STI's heavyweight banking trio mixed, with OCBC doing the heavy lifting this week.

3️⃣ Aviation and Offshore Under Pressure

Singapore Airlines was the weakest blue chip, falling 7.2%, with UOL down 5.4% and Wilmar off 4.8%. Rising oil prices and profit-taking weighed on transport, property and agri-commodity names after their recent strength.

4️⃣ STI Extends Its Record Run

The 0.79% gain lifted the STI to a new closing high and a 23.6% year-to-date advance, cementing its status as a regional outperformer. Resilient index heavyweights and steady domestic sentiment continue to underpin the benchmark.

Technical Snapshot

The STI pushed to a fresh record near 5,744, extending its multi-month uptrend on broad blue-chip support. Momentum stays constructive despite pockets of single-stock weakness, keeping the trend firmly higher. A close above current levels would reinforce the breakout, with pullbacks likely viewed as buying opportunities.

(Refer to the STI Index constituents' weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

– STI weekly chart

📅 Week Ahead (17–21 August 2026)

In the U.S., attention turns to the minutes of the July FOMC meeting for detail on how divided policymakers were over the inflation outlook, alongside flash S&P Global PMIs and housing data. With the next rate decision set for mid-September, any hawkish nuance could quickly reprice September expectations.

In China and Hong Kong, the earnings season accelerates, with a heavy slate of internet, insurance and property results likely to drive index direction. Loan prime rate fixings and further property-easing signals from major cities also remain in focus after Beijing's latest measures.

In Singapore and the region, the STI's record run faces a test from regional macro data and the tail of local earnings, with trade figures and currency moves in view. Bank-sector momentum after OCBC's outperformance will be watched closely.

🗓️ Overarching Watchpoint — The July FOMC minutes are the week's key binary: confirmation of a patient, data-dependent stance would sustain the disinflation-driven rally, while any hawkish surprise could unwind it — with the Jackson Hole symposium (Aug 27–29) looming as the larger catalyst just beyond.

Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports.

Headwinds Ease: Wall Street Breaks Out to Records

noreply@blogger.com (Fan Jun) — Sun, 09 Aug 2026 12:17:19 +0000

For the week of Aug 07, global equities advanced as easing worries over AI spending, softer oil prices and receding fears of further Fed tightening let fundamentals reassert themselves. In the U.S., major benchmarks broke out of their summer range to fresh record highs, powered by strong big-tech earnings and a softer July jobs report that trimmed rate-hike bets. China's mainland indices advanced on renewed technology and semiconductor strength, while Hong Kong slipped as a new tax on offshore insurance income weighed on financials. Singapore's Straits Times Index edged to new highs, led by industrials and its banks. Singapore market closes on Monday Aug 9 for National Day holiday, wil resume trading on Tuesday.

(Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables below.)

🇺🇸 United States

Market Overview

U.S. equities broke decisively higher, with the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) surging 5.19% for its best week since April, the S&P 500 (SPX) climbing 3.58% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) adding 2.96%. All three closed at or near fresh record highs as favourable corporate earnings, renewed AI enthusiasm and hopes for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz lifted sentiment. Falling oil prices and softer labour data drove Treasury yields lower, reinforcing the risk-on tone.

Index Weekly Performance

- Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): +2.96%

- S&P 500 (SPX): +3.58%

- Nasdaq Composite (COMP): +5.19%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Indices Break Out to Fresh Record Highs

After three months rangebound, U.S. stocks broke to new highs as three headwinds — doubts over AI spending, energy-driven inflation risk and Fed-tightening fears — eased in unison. With those overhangs lifting, earnings and economic fundamentals reasserted themselves as the primary drivers of prices, per Edward Jones.

2️⃣ AI Earnings Renew Confidence in the Cycle

Large technology firms reported accelerating cloud growth, rising AI demand and expanding backlogs. Microsoft added roughly USD 450bn in market value after results — the largest single-day market-cap gain on record — while Meta slipped as investors questioned whether heavy capex would translate into returns. The AI story is maturing, not breaking, Edward Jones noted.

3️⃣ Earnings Strength Broadens Beyond Mega-Cap Tech

With over 85% of the S&P 500 reported, Q2 earnings growth is tracking near 48% — roughly 29% excluding investment-related gains at Alphabet and Amazon. Six of the remaining nine sectors delivered double-digit growth, pointing to a healthier, broader foundation for the advance, according to Edward Jones.

4️⃣ July Jobs Miss Recalibrates Fed Expectations

Employers shed 23,000 jobs in July versus expectations for an 80,000 gain, with prior months revised sharply lower and the unemployment rate easing to 4.1% on lower participation. Stocks rallied on the “bad-news-is-good-news” read: odds of a September rate hike fell to about 42% from roughly 55%.

5️⃣ Manufacturing Accelerates as Oil Retreats

The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.6, its highest since May 2022, as new orders and production strengthened and hiring turned positive. WTI crude retraced much of last month's spike on hopes of Strait of Hormuz de-escalation, easing energy-inflation concerns even as talks remained fluid.

6️⃣ Treasuries Rally, Yields Ease

Softer labour data and lower oil pushed Treasury yields down across maturities, with the 10-year note falling to roughly 4.64% from 4.74% a week earlier. Lower yields provided an additional tailwind for equities, particularly rate-sensitive growth names.

S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

Technology led the tape by a wide margin as the AI-driven rally reasserted itself, with Materials also outperforming on the improving industrial backdrop. Consumer Discretionary, Industrials and Communication Services likewise finished firmly higher. Energy was the clear laggard, dragged by the sharp retreat in oil prices, while Utilities and Real Estate also lagged as the week's risk-on rotation favoured cyclical and growth exposure.

(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

Technical Snapshot

The major indices cleared the upper boundary of their multi-month trading range, with the Nasdaq within arm's reach to its all-time high of 27190 and the SPX and DJI both confirming new-high territory. Breadth improved as leadership rotated back toward growth. On the charts, SPX, the Nasdaq Composite and the DJI have all resolved their prior sideways consolidation to the upside, establishing higher trading bands as price discovery extends into fresh-high territory.

📊 Weekly charts:

DJI weekly chart

SPXweekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

🇨🇳 China / Hong Kong

Market Overview

China's markets diverged sharply. The Shanghai Composite (SSE) rose 2.81% and the CSI 300 gained 2.32% as technology and semiconductor shares rallied, while the Hang Seng Index (HSI) fell 0.84% in local-currency terms, dragged by financials. News that mainland tax authorities would levy taxes on offshore insurance policies weighed on Hong Kong-listed insurers and banks.

(Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables above.)

Index Weekly Performance

- CSI 300: +2.32%

- Shanghai Composite (SSE): +2.81%

- Hang Seng Index (HSI): -0.84%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Mainland–Hong Kong Divergence Widens

Renewed strength in technology and semiconductor names lifted mainland benchmarks to solid weekly gains, even as the Hang Seng slipped. The split reflected diverging drivers: an AI- and tech-led bid onshore versus financials-led weakness in Hong Kong, per T. Rowe Price.

2️⃣ Offshore Insurance Tax Hits HK Financials

Tax authorities in Beijing and Hangzhou began applying a 20% levy on income from mainland residents' overseas insurance policies, including dividend and interest returns. The move — seen as part of tighter scrutiny of cross-border flows — sent Hong Kong-listed insurers and financials sharply lower, with heavyweight AIA among the biggest constituent decliners.

3️⃣ Macro Data Mixed as Trade Frictions Resurface

The RatingDog manufacturing PMI eased to 50.9 and services to 50.4, their softest in months, echoing the official survey's slip into contraction. Yet exports rose 23.9% YoY on resilient AI-electronics demand, even as fresh U.S.–China curbs — new import bans, blacklistings and Beijing's retaliatory controls — clouded the trade outlook.

4️⃣ Policy Support and Southbound Flows

Maybank KE's Dim Sum Weekly flagged the July Politburo's tilt toward targeted support and its “Six Networks” push to strengthen AI, data-centre and digital infrastructure, while Hong Kong signalled an upgrade to its 2026 growth forecast after 1H GDP rose 5.1% YoY. Southbound investors were net buyers of Alibaba, Tencent and Xiaomi, and net sellers of Meituan and China Construction Bank.

5️⃣ Maybank KE House Views

Maybank KE maintains BUY on China Telecom (728 HK, TP HKD 6.00) on next-gen infrastructure and a ~6.4% FY26e yield; Hong Kong Land (HKL SP, TP USD 9.30) on capital recycling and an office-leasing recovery; XPeng (9868 HK, TP HKD 80.00) on overseas expansion and AI optionality; and Yum China (9987 HK, TP HKD 479.00) on store growth and efficiency gains.

Technical Snapshot

The Hang Seng slipped back below recent resistance to around 25,668, underperforming firmer mainland benchmarks as financials led the pullback. Despite the weekly loss, the index held marginally positive year-to-date, keeping its broader base intact. Near-term direction likely hinges on stabilisation in financials and follow-through from the mainland's tech-led bid.

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents' weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

🇸🇬 Singapore

Market Overview

The Straits Times Index (STI) rose 1.24% to 5,698.43, edging to fresh highs and extending a market-leading year-to-date gain of 22.65%. Gains were led by industrials and the local banks, offsetting broad weakness across property trusts and REITs.

Index Weekly Performance

- Straits Times Index (STI): +1.24%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ STI Extends Record-Setting Run

The benchmark notched another fresh high, cementing its standing as one of the region's strongest performers this year. The advance was concentrated at the top of the table even as the tape narrowed lower down, with roughly half the constituents ending the week in the red.

2️⃣ Industrials and Shipyards Lead

Venture Corp topped the index, followed closely by Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, with ST Engineering and SATS also among the leaders. Strength in manufacturing, shipbuilding and defence-linked names underpinned the index's push to new highs.

3️⃣ REITs and Property Trusts Under Pressure

The Mapletree trusts, Frasers vehicles and CapitaLand Ascendas REIT were among the week's heaviest fallers, while Keppel DC REIT and several developers also softened. Rate-sensitive S-REITs lagged the broader tape even as Treasury yields eased late in the week.

4️⃣ Index Heavyweights Mixed

Singtel, the Jardine counters (JMH) and DFI Retail weighed on the index, ranking among the steepest decliners. Their weakness partly offset leadership from the banks and industrials, keeping the STI's weekly advance measured despite the fresh high.

5️⃣ Financials Anchor a Heavy Results Week

Singapore's three lenders reported 2Q/1H FY26 — DBS on 6 Aug, OCBC and UOB on 7 Aug. DBS posted a record quarter (net profit ~S$3.08bn, +9% YoY) on surging wealth fees, prompting Maybank KE to raise its target to S$85.86 (BUY); the stock rose 3.12%. OCBC (+4.02%) beat with profit up 22% YoY, though led by non-interest income, while UOB (-0.23%) lagged on elevated NPAs and a trimmed fee-income outlook. SGX capped the week with strong FY results and higher capital returns (Maybank KE BUY, TP S$28.33).

Technical Snapshot

The STI extended its uptrend to a fresh high at 5,698.43, keeping its year-to-date leadership intact. Momentum stayed constructive at the index level even as breadth thinned, with gains concentrated in banks and industrials against a soft REIT complex. The trend remains higher while the index holds its rising near-term support.

(Refer to the STI constituents' weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

STI weekly chart

📅 Week Ahead (10–14 August 2026)

In the U.S., the July CPI report on Wednesday, 12 Aug is the marquee release, carrying added weight after soft jobs data left markets pricing roughly a 42% chance of a September rate hike. Producer prices and retail sales follow later in the week, alongside the tail end of Q2 earnings season.

In China and Hong Kong, July inflation (CPI and PPI) and new-yuan-loan and aggregate-financing data are due, offering a fresh read on demand after softer PMIs. Investors will also watch for follow-through on U.S.–China trade frictions and continued Hong Kong corporate earnings.

Singapore starts the week shortened by the National Day holiday on Monday, 10 Aug (Japan is also closed on 11 Aug), before results season broadens from the banks to mid-caps and REITs. With the big three lenders now reported, sell-side positioning is split: UOB Kay Hian's Alpha Picks favours staying with the banks, while DBS and Phillip flag a rotation toward laggard tech such as UMS and AEM.

🗓️ Overarching Watchpoint

The single biggest binary risk is Wednesday's U.S. July CPI. A hotter-than-expected print would revive fears of further Fed tightening and could quickly unwind the AI-led breakout, whereas a benign reading would reinforce the “bad-news-is-good-news” dynamic and validate fresh record highs.

Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports.

Fed Stands Pat: Tech Earnings Take the Wheel

noreply@blogger.com (Fan Jun) — Sat, 01 Aug 2026 13:09:35 +0000

For the week of Jul 31, global equities finished mostly higher as the Federal Reserve’s hawkish hold and a heavy slate of mega-cap technology earnings dominated sentiment. In the U.S., major indexes advanced despite three FOMC dissents and a sharp steepening in long-dated Treasury yields, with investors scrutinising whether AI capital spending is converting into durable returns. China diverged as a mainland semiconductor sell-off dragged the CSI 300 lower, while Hong Kong rallied on strength in large internet platforms. Singapore’s Straits Times Index edged higher, extending its year-to-date leadership among the markets tracked.

(Refer to the major indices’ weekly performance tables below.)

🇺🇸 United States

Market Overview

U.S. equities closed the week higher but with sharp intraweek swings tied to the Fed meeting, the ongoing U.S.–Iran conflict, and volatility in AI-related shares. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained 1.04%, the S&P 500 (SPX) rose 1.05%, and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) added 1.59%, with a Thursday rebound in technology stocks helping steady the tape after early-week pressure on AI names.

Index Weekly Performance

– Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): +1.04%

– S&P 500 (SPX): +1.05%

– Nasdaq Composite (COMP): +1.59%

Monthly Performance – July 2026

For the month of July, U.S. large caps were broadly flat while tech-heavy segments lagged. The Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a 0.32% monthly gain and the S&P 500 slipped 0.13%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 3.20% as the AI-spending debate and the Fed’s hawkish shift weighed on higher-multiple growth names.

(Refer to the major indices’ monthly performance table below.)

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Fed Holds Rates, But Three Dissenters Push for a Hike

The FOMC held the funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% for a fifth straight meeting in a 9–3 vote, with three regional presidents favouring a quarter-point hike on concerns about sticky inflation. Chair Warsh reiterated the commitment to price stability but offered limited guidance, leaving the timing of the next move unclear.

2️⃣ Long-End Yields Surge to Post-2007 Highs

Treasury yields rose after the meeting, with the largest moves at the long end steepening the curve. The 30-year yield climbed above 5.2% for the first time since 2007, reaching roughly 5.26% by Friday, as investors reassessed the higher-for-longer path and, in some cases, questioned the Fed’s inflation-fighting resolve.

3️⃣ Mega-Cap Tech Earnings Split the Market

Four of the Magnificent 7 reported. Microsoft and Amazon rallied on stronger cloud growth, while Meta fell on an earnings miss and soft guidance and Apple declined on cost concerns and a cautious outlook. The reaction signalled a shift from rewarding AI spending toward scrutinising the revenue and earnings it generates.

4️⃣ Inflation Cools, But Stays Above Target

Headline PCE eased to 3.7% year over year in June and core PCE edged down to 3.3%, both below expectations but still well above the 2% goal. GDP growth slowed to a 1.5% annualised pace in the second quarter, while consumer confidence dipped to 90.8 as views of current conditions deteriorated.

5️⃣ A Strong, Broad-Based Earnings Season

With over half of the S&P 500 reported, 86% have beaten estimates at an average 31% upside surprise, lifting second-quarter growth forecasts to 37% from 22%. Gains have been broad, with 10 of 11 sectors posting year-over-year increases – breadth that could make the market’s advance more durable.

S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

Consumer discretionary led the S&P 500 sectors, buoyed by a late-week rally in Amazon after its better-than-expected results, with communication services and financials also finishing higher. Defensive and rate-sensitive corners lagged, with utilities the weakest performer and real estate also under pressure as long-end yields climbed. Technology finished modestly lower on the week despite Thursday’s rebound, reflecting the ongoing tug-of-war over AI capital spending.

(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

Technical Snapshot

The SPX and COMP both rebounded after two-week consecutive decline and DJI also recorded 1^st weekly gain after three weeks down. Momentum remains constructive but is increasingly sensitive to rate moves and AI-earnings headlines. Structurally, all three indexes have been in consolidating sideways beneath their recent highs as they digest the mega-cap divergence.

📊 Weekly charts:

– DJI weekly chart

– SPX weekly chart

– Nasdaq weeklychart

🇨🇳 China / Hong Kong

Market Overview

Chinese equities diverged sharply as a global AI-shares sell-off pressured mainland technology and growth stocks while Hong Kong advanced. The CSI 300 Index fell 1.31% and the Shanghai Composite (SSE) edged up 0.47%, while the Hang Seng Index (HSI) surged 3.69% in local-currency terms, powered by large internet platforms including Tencent and Alibaba.

(Refer to the major indices’ weekly performance tables above.)

Index Weekly Performance

– CSI 300: -1.31%

– Shanghai Composite (SSE): +0.47%

– Hang Seng Index (HSI): +3.69%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Hong Kong Outperforms on Internet-Platform Rotation

The Hang Seng surged as investors rotated into large internet names, with Tencent and Alibaba leading. Gains in more defensive areas, including banks and consumer staples, helped offset technology weakness spilling over from the mainland, leaving Hong Kong the standout among the markets tracked this week.

2️⃣ CXMT Debut Euphoria Gives Way to Chip Sell-Off

Memory-chip maker ChangXin Memory Technologies closed roughly 466% above its IPO price on its Monday debut – Asia’s largest listing of 2026 – briefly the most valuable A-share at a market cap near RMB 3.3 trillion. Euphoria faded as selling spread across semiconductor and AI-infrastructure names on valuation concerns, though a Friday rebound trimmed the CSI 300’s weekly loss.

3️⃣ Politburo Signals Targeted, Not Sweeping, Support

The Politburo reaffirmed a proactive fiscal stance and moderately loose monetary policy, pledging stronger countercyclical adjustments, faster fiscal spending, and support for AI and computing infrastructure. Crucially, the readout stopped short of a broad new stimulus program, signalling that policy support will remain targeted and incremental.

4️⃣ Manufacturing Slips Back Into Contraction

The official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 in July from 50.3, its first contraction since February, as production, new orders, and export orders all weakened. The non-manufacturing index dropped to 49.0 – its lowest since December 2022 – underscoring persistent softness in domestic demand, investment, and construction.

5️⃣ Maybank KE: Rotate to Financials, Buy Quality AI on Dips

Maybank KE views this week’s tech volatility and rotation into financials as consistent with its preference for the sector, reading the AI pullback as a healthy correction rather than a fundamental deterioration. It would accumulate quality beneficiaries such as ASMPT and SMIC on weakness – the latter the HSI’s weakest constituent this week – and also flags CATL (power-infrastructure and energy-storage growth) and Trip.com (a lifted antitrust overhang plus resilient travel demand) as constructive ideas.

Technical Snapshot

The Hang Seng broke decisively higher, clearing prior resistance on strong breadth as internet heavyweights led the advance. The mainland CSI 300, by contrast, remains capped by its semiconductor-heavy composition and slipped despite the Friday bounce. Near-term, the HSI’s momentum looks constructive, though follow-through will hinge on the durability of the global AI-earnings recovery and the pace of southbound flows.

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents’ weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

– SSE weekly chart

– HSI weekly chart

🇸🇬 Singapore

Market Overview

The Straits Times Index (STI) rose 0.72% on the week to close at fresh highs, extending its strong year-to-date run and remaining the top performer among the markets tracked. Gains were broad but shallow across constituents, led by consumer and property-linked names, while a small group of industrial and technology-exposed stocks weighed.

(Refer to the major indices’ weekly performance tables above.)

Index Weekly Performance

– Straits Times Index (STI): +0.72%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ STI Extends Year-to-Date Leadership

The STI added 0.72% for the week and now sits up more than 21% year to date, comfortably the strongest performer among the indices tracked. Weekly gains were broad but shallow, with most constituents posting small positive moves rather than a single sector driving the advance.

2️⃣ DFI Retail Leads Constituents Sharply Higher

DFI Retail (D01) was the standout, jumping 15.16% on the week, well ahead of the next-best movers CapitaLand Investment (9CI), up 6.83%, and UOL (U14), up 5.32%. Property-linked and consumer names featured prominently at the top of the weekly leaderboard.

3️⃣ ST Engineering and Yangzijiang Lag

ST Engineering (S63) was the weakest constituent, falling 4.91%, followed by Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (BS6), down 2.00%, and Venture (V03), down 1.30%. The declines were concentrated in a handful of industrial and technology-exposed names against an otherwise firm tape.

4️⃣ Local Banks Little Changed on the Week

The three local banks were near-flat, with UOB (U11) up 0.18%, OCBC (O39) up 0.14%, and DBS (D05) up 0.11%. Despite muted weekly moves, OCBC and DBS continue to lead the trio year to date, up 47.42% and 31.33% respectively.

Technical Snapshot

The STI continued to grind to fresh highs, holding a well-established uptrend with support building on pullbacks. Breadth remains healthy, though the pace of gains has moderated as the index trades at elevated levels. Near-term, the STI’s structure stays constructive, but stretched year-to-date returns leave it more vulnerable to consolidation on any external risk-off shift.

(Refer to the STI weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

– STI weekly chart

📅 Week Ahead (03–07 August 2026)

The U.S. calendar features the July employment report, the marquee release after a hawkish Fed hold, alongside ISM services and further second-quarter earnings. With three FOMC members already dissenting toward a hike, wage and payroll data will shape expectations for a potentially live September meeting. Any upside surprise in inflation-sensitive prints or energy prices could reinforce the higher-for-longer narrative.

In China, markets will digest the weak July PMIs and watch for follow-through on the Politburo’s targeted-support pledges, including the pace of fiscal spending and bond issuance. Caixin private surveys and trade data are due, offering a cross-check on the official activity readings. Sentiment in Hong Kong will remain closely tied to global AI-share direction and southbound flows.

In Singapore, attention turns to the local banks as the second-quarter results season approaches, with DBS, OCBC, and UOB due to report in the coming weeks; NIM trajectory, fee income, and dividend guidance will be in focus. Regional PMIs and the broader ASEAN earnings flow will also guide sentiment.

🗓️ Overarching Watchpoint

The July U.S. jobs report is the week’s key binary risk: a hot print would harden the case for a September rate hike and could extend the long-end yield surge, pressuring rate-sensitive equities globally, while a soft reading would ease tightening fears and support the broad risk rally.

Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports.

AI Doubts and Oil: Wall Street Slips, Asia Climbs

noreply@blogger.com (Fan Jun) — Sat, 25 Jul 2026 13:16:20 +0000

For the week of Jul 24, global markets diverged sharply as renewed scrutiny of AI-related spending and a fresh surge in oil prices drove a risk-off tone across Western equities, even as state-backed buying lifted Chinese shares. In the U.S., disappointing big-tech cash-flow guidance and a jump in Treasury yields sent major indexes lower, led by technology. In China and Hong Kong, coordinated state support and record ETF inflows powered a rebound in semiconductor and technology names despite a Friday pullback. In Singapore, gains in shipbuilders and firm bank shares carried the Straits Times Index higher even as REITs and property counters lagged.

(Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables below.)

🇺🇸 United States

Most major U.S. indexes finished lower as concerns over the returns on heavy AI investment and a sharp rise in oil prices weighed on sentiment. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (COMP) fell 2.13% to lead declines, while the S&P 500 (SPX) eased 0.61% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) slipped 0.38%. Declines in Alphabet and Tesla after their results amplified broader worries over big tech's elevated capital spending and weaker cash flow.

Major Indices – Weekly Performance

- Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): -0.38%

- S&P 500 (SPX): -0.61%

- Nasdaq Composite (COMP): -2.13%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ AI Spending Scrutiny Rattles Big Tech

Investor focus shifted from AI capital expenditure toward monetization and returns. Alphabet beat expectations with cloud revenue up 82% year over year, but its raised 2026 capex guidance of USD 195–205 billion overshadowed the print. Weak cash flow at Alphabet and Tesla fuelled broader concern over whether heavy AI investment will translate into profits.

2️⃣ Oil Surge Reignites Inflation Fears

A re-escalation in the U.S.–Iran conflict pushed crude back toward USD 100, reversing much of the post-ceasefire relief. Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping threatened a key alternative to the Strait of Hormuz. The move lifted energy shares but pressured travel- and consumer-related industries and renewed inflation concerns.

3️⃣ Treasury Yields Break Higher

The 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 4.70% for the first time since January 2025 before dipping to about 4.68% on Friday. Rising oil and sticky inflation stoked expectations that the Fed could raise rates in the near term. Higher yields pressured bond prices and weighed on richly valued equities.

4️⃣ Jobless Claims Hit 1969 Low

Initial jobless claims fell to 187,000 for the week ended July 18, the lowest since 1969 and well below the roughly 215,000 consensus. Continuing claims edged down to 1.796 million. The stable labour market gives hawkish Fed members more room to prioritise the inflation mandate ahead of Wednesday's decision.

5️⃣ Services Lead PMI to Eight-Month High

The S&P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI rose to 53.6 in July from 51.9, an eight-month high, as services activity accelerated to 53.6 and offset softer manufacturing at 53.8. The report flagged intensifying pressures, with input-cost inflation at a 14-month high and the most severe supplier delays in nearly four years.

6️⃣ Fed Seen on Hold, September Live

Edward Jones expects the Fed to hold at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday, though a dissent is possible. September looks like a live meeting, with markets fully pricing one quarter-point hike by then should oil pressures persist. The firm raised its 10-year yield range to 4.5%–5.0%, citing a higher-for-longer backdrop.

S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

Energy was the standout sector, buoyed by the sharp rise in oil prices amid Middle East tensions, with defensive and cyclical corners such as Utilities, Industrials and Materials also advancing. In contrast, Consumer Discretionary was the weakest sector, followed by Communication Services, as AI-spending concerns and weakness in growth-oriented, technology-adjacent names dragged those areas lower. Technology and Financials finished only marginally higher, underscoring the rotation away from crowded growth trades.

(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

Technical Snapshot

The SPX and COMP both closed the week lower, pressured by heavy selling in mega-cap technology, while the DJI proved more resilient on strength in energy and defensives. Rising yields and oil remain the key overhangs as the market awaits Wednesday's Fed decision. On the charts, SPX, Nasdaq and DJI are drifting into a sideways consolidation after recent highs, with momentum cooling as breadth narrows.

📊 Weekly charts:

- DJI weeklychart

- SPX weeklychart

🇨🇳 China / Hong Kong

China equities advanced despite a broad regional sell-off on Friday, when renewed AI-valuation concerns and higher oil prices weighed on sentiment. The CSI 300 rose 2.65%, the Shanghai Composite (SSE) gained 1.33% and the Hang Seng Index (HSI) added 1.63% in local-currency terms, with state-backed purchases driving a sharp early-week rebound in semiconductor and technology shares. Some gains were pared as valuation concerns resurfaced and crude traded around USD 100. (Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables above.)

Major Indices – Weekly Performance

- CSI 300: +2.65%

- Shanghai Composite (SSE): +1.33%

- Hang Seng Index (HSI): +1.63%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ State Support Extends to Tech Shares

State-owned platforms China Reform Holdings and China Chengtong Holdings disclosed combined equity purchases of nearly RMB 60 billion. The ChinaAMC STAR 50 ETF drew a record RMB 13.8 billion of inflows, and major insurers pledged more long-term equity investment. The STAR 50 Index surged 10.7% on Tuesday before paring gains, underscoring continued volatility in AI-related shares.

2️⃣ State Council Urges Faster Fiscal Execution

Beijing called for stronger budget management and more effective fiscal spending to meet annual growth targets. First-half general public budget expenditure rose just 1.5% year over year, while government-fund spending fell 16.4%. The PBOC made a net RMB 100 billion MLF injection, its largest in five months, ahead of the Politburo meeting — signalling targeted support rather than sweeping stimulus.

3️⃣ LPR Held for 14th Straight Month

The PBOC left its one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates unchanged, the 14th consecutive month on hold. Maybank KE notes the steady stance supports stabilising net interest margins, a positive backdrop for China Construction Bank. The measured tone reinforces expectations of targeted easing over broad rate cuts.

4️⃣ Copper Strength and Consumer Rotation

Maybank KE highlights that China's copper prices hit a more-than-one-year high after tax reforms tightened scrap supply, benefiting Jiangxi Copper. On the growth side, Xiaomi raised its full-year smartphone shipment target on easing memory-chip costs, while Anta Sports stands to gain share after Nike ended its Topsports partnership.

5️⃣ July Rotation Into Internet Names

Maybank KE observes that China equities rallied in July as investors rotated from crowded AI-hardware plays into China internet stocks. The move may extend, though volatility could stay elevated amid an uncertain macro backdrop. The house favours a barbell of high-yield defensives and selective growth opportunities.

Technical Snapshot

The HSI extended its recovery on state buying and strength in financials and select cyclicals, though breadth was uneven as large internet platforms lagged — NetEase and Tencent were the heaviest constituent decliners. Onshore benchmarks outperformed, led by the CSI 300 as semiconductor and technology names rebounded. Near term, the index looks to consolidate recent gains, with oil prices and AI-valuation swings the key factors.

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents' weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

- HSI weeklychart

🇸🇬 Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI) rose 1.43% over the week to 5,588.34, extending its year-to-date advance to above 20% — among the strongest in the region. Gains were led by shipbuilders, with YZJ Shipbuilding and Seatrium the top performers, while the local banks firmed. Property counters and several S-REITs lagged, capping the index's advance.

Major Indices – Weekly Performance

- Straits Times Index (STI): +1.43%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Shipbuilders Lead the Index Higher

YZJ Shipbuilding (BS6) rose 10.19% and Seatrium (5E2) gained 7.04% to top the STI this week, extending a strong run for the marine and offshore names. The two shipbuilders were the standout performers and helped offset weakness among property and REIT counters.

2️⃣ Banks Firm Ahead of Results Season

The three local lenders advanced, with DBS (D05) up 2.75%, UOB (U11) up 2.00% and OCBC (O39) up 1.86%. The gains came ahead of the second-quarter earnings season, with all three banks due to report over the coming weeks.

3️⃣ REITs and Property Counters Lag

S-REITs were mixed to weaker, with Keppel DC REIT (AJBU) down 3.02% and CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (A17U) and the Mapletree trusts also lower — a soft patch consistent with the week's rise in global bond yields. Among developers, City Developments (C09) fell 2.86% and UOL (U14) slipped 2.08%.

4️⃣ Breadth Mixed as Index Grinds Higher

Advancers and decliners were fairly balanced across the STI, with strength in shipbuilders, banks and ST Engineering (S63, +1.63%) offset by weakness in REITs, developers and DFI Retail (D01), the worst performer at −4.72%. The index's steady climb left its year-to-date gain well ahead of regional peers.

Technical Snapshot

The STI closed the week near 5,590, sustaining its uptrend and a year-to-date gain above 20%. Momentum remains constructive, led by banks and shipbuilders, though a heavy REIT and property complex could cap further upside if yields stay elevated. The index looks to consolidate its gains, with global risk sentiment and the Fed decision the near-term guides.

(Refer to the STI weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

📅 Week Ahead (27–31 Jul 2026)

In the U.S., the Federal Reserve's policy decision on Wednesday headlines the week; Edward Jones expects a hold at 3.50%–3.75%, though the statement and any dissents will be scrutinised for a September tilt. A heavy slate of mega-cap technology earnings follows Alphabet, with Amazon, Meta and Microsoft due to report, keeping the AI-monetization debate in focus. June PCE inflation and the first read on second-quarter GDP round out a data-rich week.

In China and Hong Kong, the late-July Politburo meeting takes centre stage as investors look for the economic-policy tone for the second half. Official July PMIs are due at month-end and will test the durability of recent momentum. Continued state-support signals and any follow-through in AI and semiconductor names will guide sentiment.

In Singapore, attention turns to the approaching second-quarter results season, with the three local banks set to report over the following weeks and REITs likely to stay sensitive to the yield backdrop. Regionally, the path of oil prices and Middle East headlines will remain a key swing factor for energy-importing markets.

🗓️ Overarching Watchpoint

The Fed's Wednesday decision is the week's biggest binary risk: a straightforward hold would likely steady sentiment, but any hawkish signal that validates September rate-hike bets — especially if oil holds near USD 100 — could pressure richly valued equities and push yields higher still.

Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports.

Inflation Cools, Tech Cracks: Rotation Sweeps Global Markets

noreply@blogger.com (Fan Jun) — Sat, 18 Jul 2026 05:40:59 +0000

For the week ended Jul 17, global equities delivered a week of sharp contrasts as a broad rotation out of AI and semiconductor names collided with the most encouraging U.S. inflation data in over six years. U.S. stocks retreated as heavy selling in large-cap technology overshadowed cooler-than-expected inflation and strong bank earnings. Mainland Chinese markets fell steeply on AI valuation concerns and a second-quarter GDP miss, even as Hong Kong outperformed on resilient Southbound buying. Singapore quietly extended its year-to-date leadership, with the Straits Times Index grinding higher despite the global tech turbulence.

(Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables below.)

🇺🇸 United States

Market Overview

Major U.S. indexes closed lower in a reversal of the prior week's large-cap tech outperformance, with the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) sliding -2.90% and the S&P 500 (SPX) losing -1.55%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) fell a more modest -0.93%. Information technology and communication services posted the steepest losses on selling in semiconductor, memory and AI infrastructure shares, while energy advanced alongside oil prices amid escalating U.S.–Iran tensions.

Index Weekly Performance

- Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): -0.93%

- S&P 500 (SPX): -1.55%

- Nasdaq Composite (COMP): -2.90%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ CPI Posts Largest Monthly Decline Since April 2020

Headline CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month in June, well below the 0.1% decline expected, driven by a 5.7% drop in energy prices. Year-over-year inflation slowed to 3.5% from 4.2%, with core easing to 2.6%. PPI also surprised lower, falling 0.3% for the month.

2️⃣ Rate-Hike Odds Collapse; Fed Seen on Hold

The market-implied probability of a July rate hike dropped from roughly 40% to about 14% after the inflation reports. The Fed held rates at 3.5%–3.75% in June with a divided FOMC; rate cuts look off the table this year, but the bar for hikes remains high heading into the July 29 meeting.

3️⃣ Banks Kick Off Q2 Earnings With Broad Beats

JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Citi topped consensus estimates, pointing to resilient loan growth, credit quality and consumer spending. Expectations for the season are lofty: S&P 500 Q2 earnings growth forecasts have been revised up from about 14% to around 25%, led by energy and technology.

4️⃣ Semiconductor and AI Infrastructure Selloff Deepens

Chip, memory and AI infrastructure shares sold off despite encouraging results from Taiwan Semiconductor and ASML. The SOX Semiconductor index is now down about 20% from its June highs but still up roughly 64% year-to-date, while software and cloud names like Microsoft and Salesforce showed signs of recovery.

5️⃣ AI Capex Guidance Is the Key Earnings Test

AI capex is expected to grow about 75% this year to USD 700–800 billion, before slowing to 25% in 2027 and 6% in 2028. Investors will watch whether hyperscalers reaffirm or exceed this guidance, and whether the spending is translating into revenue returns.

6️⃣ Consumer Resilient, Housing Still Soft

Retail sales rose 0.2% in June (+0.7% ex-gas stations) and initial jobless claims fell to 208,000, the lowest since early May. Housing lagged: pending home sales dropped 5.4%, homebuilder confidence declined, and the 30-year mortgage rate climbed to 6.55%, the highest since August 2025.

S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

Sector performance split cleanly along the rotation. Energy was the week's clear leader, advancing alongside oil prices amid U.S.–Iran tensions, with real estate and consumer staples also firmly higher as defensives held up. Technology was by far the weakest sector, dragged down by the semiconductor and AI infrastructure selloff, with communication services, consumer discretionary and industrials also in the red.

(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

Technical Snapshot

The SPX pulled back -1.55% to 7,457, while the Nasdaq's -2.90% decline confirmed that leadership has rotated away from the AI complex for now. The DJI held up best, and all three benchmarks remain up 8.5%–9.8% year-to-date, keeping the broader uptrend intact. Near-term direction hinges on whether Q2 tech earnings and AI capex guidance can arrest the semiconductor slide. Technically, both SPX and Nasdaq have been in sideway consolidation over the past two months, while DJI has been in sideway consolidation over the past three weeks.

📊 Weekly charts:

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

🇨🇳 China / Hong Kong

Market Overview

China equities diverged sharply in a volatile week. A renewed sell-off in AI, memory-chip and semiconductor shares drove steep mainland losses, with the CSI 300 falling -5.26% and the Shanghai Composite (SSE) sliding -5.81%, while the Hang Seng Index (HSI) gained +1.60% on mainland buying through Stock Connect. A strong Tuesday rebound on better-than-expected trade data was more than reversed by Friday's rout on AI valuation concerns.

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents' weekly performance table below.)

Index Weekly Performance

- CSI 300: -5.26%

- Shanghai Composite (SSE): -5.81%

- Hang Seng Index (HSI): +1.60%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Q2 GDP Misses at 4.3%, Underscoring Uneven Growth

GDP grew 4.3% year-over-year, below the 4.5% consensus and down from 5.0% in Q1, though first-half growth of 4.7% stayed within the 4.5%–5.0% target range. Industrial production rose a firm 5.3%, but fixed asset investment fell 5.7% in the first half, including an 18% slump in property.

2️⃣ Exports Surge 27% as External Demand Carries the Economy

June exports jumped 27.0% year-over-year, well above expectations, with imports up 36.0% and the trade surplus widening to USD 125.6 billion. Higher semiconductor prices and strong overseas demand for data-processing equipment and automobiles drove the gains, contrasting sharply with weak household consumption and property activity.

3️⃣ AI Valuation Concerns Trigger Friday Rout on the Mainland

Friday's sell-off was fuelled by concerns over elevated AI valuations and intensifying competition among Chinese large language model developers. Mainland losses narrowed late in the session as trading picked up in large index ETFs often favoured by state-backed investors, hinting at official support.

4️⃣ Hong Kong Outperforms on Southbound Flows

The HSI's +1.60% gain was supported by Stock Connect buying and strength in large internet platforms, automakers, healthcare and selected property names. OOIL (+12.58%), BYD Electronic (+10.20%) and Longfor (+9.34%) led constituents, while SMIC (-15.00%) and Lenovo (-12.50%) bore the brunt of the chip selloff.

5️⃣ Targeted Policy Over Broad Stimulus (Maybank KE)

Maybank KE expects Beijing to maintain a targeted policy stance prioritising AI, energy infrastructure and strategic industries rather than broad-based stimulus, favouring beneficiaries of industrial upgrading such as CATL, Lenovo, CITIC Securities and Henderson Land. June credit data stayed subdued, with new yuan loans of CNY 1.61 trillion missing the CNY 2.0 trillion consensus.

Technical Snapshot

The HSI added +1.60% to close at 24,562, extending its divergence from the mainland even as its year-to-date return remains modestly negative at -4.17%. The SSE's -5.81% weekly plunge to 3,764 marked a decisive break lower, dragging the index into negative territory for the year. Whether state-linked ETF buying and Southbound flows can stabilise mainland sentiment is the key near-term question.

📊 Weekly charts:

🇸🇬 Singapore

Market Overview

The Straits Times Index (STI) rose +0.73% to close at 5,509.43, quietly outperforming both Wall Street and mainland China for the week and extending its year-to-date gain to +18.58%. Breadth was mixed beneath the surface, with property, defensive and REIT names leading while industrials and tech-linked counters lagged.

(Refer to the STI weekly performance table below.)

Index Weekly Performance

- Straits Times Index (STI): +0.73%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ STI Extends Year-to-Date Leadership

The STI's +0.73% advance to 5,509.43 came despite the global tech shakeout, underlining Singapore's relative-safety appeal. At +18.58% year-to-date, the index continues to outpace the S&P 500 (+8.94%) and the Hang Seng (-4.17%) by a wide margin.

2️⃣ Property and Defensive Names Lead the Advance

HK Land (+4.51%) topped the constituent table, followed by Keppel DC REIT (+3.57%), SATS (+3.12%) and Mapletree PACT (+2.29%). ThaiBev (+2.25%) and JMH (+1.98%) added to the defensive tilt as investors rotated away from cyclical and tech-exposed counters.

3️⃣ Banks Diverge Sharply

OCBC surged +4.12%, extending its standout +44.53% year-to-date run, and DBS added +2.14%. UOB was the outlier, sliding -4.30% for the week, though it remains up +21.14% for the year. The three banks' dispersion was the widest among the index heavyweights.

4️⃣ Industrials and Tech-Linked Counters Lag

Sembcorp Industries (-5.63%), Venture (-5.19%) and ST Engineering (-4.84%) were the week's biggest decliners, echoing the global rotation out of industrial and tech-adjacent names. SGX eased -1.49% but retains a strong +40.80% year-to-date gain.

Technical Snapshot

The STI closed at 5,509, holding comfortably above the 5,500 mark after a steady +0.73% weekly gain. The index's resilience amid heavy global tech selling reinforces the strength of its 2026 uptrend, now +18.58% year-to-date. A sustained hold above 5,500 would keep the path of least resistance pointing higher.

📊 Weekly charts:

STI weekly chart

📅 Week Ahead (20–24 Jul 2026)

In the U.S., Q2 earnings season broadens out beyond the banks, with investors focused on whether technology companies reaffirm lofty AI capex guidance and demonstrate revenue returns on that spending. With Q2 S&P 500 earnings growth forecasts revised up to around 25%, the bar for delivery is high. The July 29 FOMC meeting looms the following week, with hike odds sharply reduced after the soft CPI print.

In China and Hong Kong, markets will watch for policy signals following the Q2 GDP miss, with Beijing expected to lean on targeted support for AI, energy infrastructure and strategic industries rather than broad stimulus. Whether state-linked ETF buying and Southbound flows can steady mainland sentiment after Friday's AI-driven rout will set the near-term tone.

In Singapore, the STI's ability to hold above 5,500 amid global tech volatility will be in focus, alongside continued rotation into defensive, property and REIT names. Dispersion among the three banks bears watching after a week of unusually wide divergence.

🗓️ Overarching Watchpoint

The single biggest binary risk of the week is whether technology earnings — and AI capex guidance in particular — can arrest the global semiconductor selloff. Delivery on lofty forecasts could see tech resume leadership; a disappointment risks extending the rotation and deepening the drawdown across U.S. and mainland Chinese markets.

Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports.

AI Sets the Direction: Hong Kong and Singapore Surge

noreply@blogger.com (Fan Jun) — Sun, 12 Jul 2026 12:58:17 +0000

For the week of Jul 10, markets navigated a week in which renewed U.S.–Iran tensions lifted oil prices, but equities largely looked through the geopolitical noise and stayed focused on AI momentum ahead of the second-quarter earnings season. U.S. indices closed mixed, as a late-week rebound in semiconductor and AI-related shares lifted the Nasdaq and S&P 500 while the Dow lagged. Greater China diverged sharply, with Hong Kong outperforming on strength in internet heavyweights even as mainland benchmarks slipped on late-week profit-taking in semiconductors. Singapore stole the regional spotlight, as record-setting bank stocks powered the Straits Times Index to fresh all-time highs.

(Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables below.)

🇺🇸 United States

Market Overview

Major U.S. indices closed the week mixed. A late-week rebound in semiconductor and AI-related shares helped the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) gain 1.74% and the S&P 500 (SPX) advance 1.23%, overcoming earlier volatility driven in part by higher oil prices and renewed U.S.–Iran hostilities, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined 0.50%. Growth stocks solidly outpaced value, and trading volumes stayed light ahead of a busy week of earnings, inflation data and retail sales.

Index Weekly Performance

- Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): -0.50%

- S&P 500 (SPX): +1.23%

- Nasdaq Composite (COMP): +1.74%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Fed Minutes Reveal Divergence Over Policy Path

Minutes from the Federal Reserve's June meeting showed a few policymakers saw a case for raising rates, though all ultimately backed leaving borrowing costs unchanged. Officials were divided over the path for the rest of the year amid elevated uncertainty, and most supported removing language implying an easing bias — a somewhat hawkish signal.

2️⃣ Geopolitics a Wildcard, Not a Game Changer

Iran resumed attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. launched fresh strikes and revoked Iranian oil waivers, and Iran hit bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. Oil briefly rose 5% to about USD 72 per barrel — well below March's USD 120 peak — and equities proved far less sensitive to oil spikes than earlier this year.

3️⃣ Economic Data Steady in a Light Week

The ISM services PMI eased to 54.0 in June, a 24th straight month in expansion, with the employment component returning to growth. Initial jobless claims dipped to 215,000, while existing home sales fell 2.4% to a 4.09 million annual rate as elevated prices and borrowing costs continued to squeeze affordability.

4️⃣ Treasury Yields Climb on Oil and Hawkish Minutes

U.S. Treasuries generated negative returns as rising oil prices and the Fed minutes pushed yields higher across most maturities, with the 10-year yield up to about 4.56% from 4.49%. Investment-grade corporates underperformed, and high yield sentiment weakened midweek on revived inflation concerns before stabilising into the close.

5️⃣ A High Bar Into Q2 Earnings Season

S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow 23% year over year — a second straight quarter above 20% — on 12% revenue growth, with estimates unusually revised higher into the season. Technology and energy are set to drive roughly 80% of total earnings growth, so the focus shifts to whether the pace of improvement is still accelerating.

6️⃣ Second-Half Leadership Set to Broaden

Strategists expect rotations within and beyond technology to define the second half: stay exposed to AI but complement it with mid-caps, industrials and communication services, where valuations are less stretched. Returns are likely to become less momentum-driven and more dependent on earnings delivery, valuation discipline and sector rotation.

S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

Information technology led sector performance for the week, with energy and communication services also posting strong gains as AI leadership reasserted itself and higher crude prices supported energy names. Materials and health care were the weakest performers, alongside softness in defensives such as consumer staples and utilities. The pattern mirrored the earnings picture, where technology and energy have driven the bulk of upward estimate revisions heading into reporting season.

(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

Technical Snapshot

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 closed the week near record territory after Friday's rebound in semiconductors restored the prevailing uptrend. The Dow lagged, slipping 0.50% as the rise in the 10-year Treasury yield toward 4.56% weighed on rate-sensitive and value pockets. With earnings season starting, the near-term bias stays constructive provided the benchmarks hold their recent breakout zones and yields remain contained.

📊 Weekly charts:

🇨🇳 China / Hong Kong

Market Overview

China equities diverged during the week. Mainland benchmarks declined despite a sharp but narrow rally in AI, semiconductor and technology self-sufficiency plays, with the CSI 300 falling 1.27% and the Shanghai Composite (SSE) down 1.17%, while the Hang Seng Index (HSI) surged 3.53% on strength in large internet stocks. Divergence within the technology complex widened, as discounted capital raisings and volatility among pure-play AI developers offset the sector's earlier gains. (Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables above.)

Index Weekly Performance

- CSI 300: -1.27%

- Shanghai Composite (SSE): -1.17%

- Hang Seng Index (HSI): +3.53%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Hong Kong Outperforms on Internet Heavyweights

The HSI's advance was powered by the internet complex, with Alibaba jumping 17.11%, Lenovo up 14.93%, Xiaomi gaining 12.54% and Meituan adding 9.92%, while health care and materials shares lent support on Friday. Laggards were concentrated in consumer names, with WH Group down 9.98% and Sunny Optical off 6.91%.

2️⃣ Mainland AI Rally Reverses on Profit-Taking

China-specific AI catalysts — ChangXin Memory Technologies' upcoming IPO and reports of proprietary domestic AI chips — lifted technology sentiment early in the week, but mainland semiconductor stocks reversed sharply on Friday amid reported profit-taking. The pullback dragged the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite into weekly losses despite the narrow tech rally.

3️⃣ Inflation Split: Firm Upstream, Soft Consumer

June CPI rose 1.0% year over year, slightly below consensus and slowing from May's 1.2%, with core inflation edging down to 1.0% on soft food and travel-related prices. Producer prices jumped 4.1% — the fastest pace since July 2022 — on stronger nonferrous metals, petroleum and coal, underscoring the upstream-versus-consumer divide.

4️⃣ PBOC Stays Supportive but Targeted

The PBOC's second-quarter Monetary Policy Committee pledged an appropriately accommodative stance, reasonably ample liquidity and stronger support for domestic demand, technology innovation and SMEs, alongside lower overall financing costs. It acknowledged insufficient domestic demand and structural imbalances, but stopped short of signalling any broad-based stimulus programme.

5️⃣ Rotation Into Value: Healthcare, Property and Energy

Maybank KE flags fund rotation out of crowded technology into value segments: within healthcare, Jiangsu Hengrui is favoured on China's preliminary NRDL boosting reimbursement coverage; Link REIT is the preferred Hong Kong property name on stabilising rental reversions; and CNOOC screens as a compelling value play on higher crude, low costs and attractive shareholder returns.

Technical Snapshot

The HSI's 3.53% surge carried it back above the 24,000 mark to close at 24,175, though the index remains down 5.68% year to date. The Shanghai Composite slipped back below the 4,000 level after Friday's semiconductor sell-off, ending at 3,996. Near-term direction hinges on the upcoming Q2 GDP release, with 24,000 now the first support for the HSI and 4,000 the pivot for the SSE.

📊 Weekly charts:

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents' weekly performance table below.)

🇸🇬 Singapore

Market Overview

The Straits Times Index (STI) surged 4.29% to close at a record 5,469.29, its strongest week of the year, extending year-to-date gains to 17.72%. The rally was overwhelmingly bank-led, with strong institutional inflows pushing all three local lenders to fresh peaks — DBS crossed the S$70 mark for the first time — as investors positioned ahead of the second-quarter results season and first-half dividend payouts. (Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables above.)

Index Weekly Performance

- Straits Times Index (STI): +4.29%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Banks Power the STI to Fresh Records

UOB soared 10.29%, OCBC gained 8.38% and DBS added 5.53%, together doing the heavy lifting in the index's 225-point weekly advance. DBS topped S$70 for the first time while OCBC and UOB also hit new highs, driven by institutional inflows ahead of the banks' Q2 reporting season in early August.

2️⃣ Broad Blue-Chip Participation Beyond the Banks

Gains extended well beyond financials: Keppel rose 5.71%, Wilmar advanced 3.49%, CapitaLand Investment added 2.01% and SIA gained 1.18%. Most REITs eked out modest gains, keeping breadth respectable even as the banks dominated headline performance.

3️⃣ Sembcorp and Singtel Lag the Rally

Sembcorp Industries fell 5.02%, the index's worst performer, while Singtel slipped 1.57% and Venture eased 0.70%. JMH declined 1.13%, leaving the losers' column short and concentrated — a sign of how one-sided the week's flows into the financial heavyweights were.

4️⃣ Q2 GDP Advance Estimate Due 14 July

MTI releases advance second-quarter GDP estimates on Tuesday, 14 July, the next key checkpoint for the market after Q1's 6.0% year-on-year expansion. The official 2026 growth forecast stands at 2.0–4.0%, though authorities have flagged significantly elevated downside risks from the external environment.

Technical Snapshot

The STI's 4.29% surge to 5,469.29 marks a decisive breakout above its early-July record highs, with the 5,400 level now turning into first support. Momentum is strong but stretched after a 225-point weekly gain, leaving room for consolidation. The path of least resistance stays higher into the GDP release, provided the banks hold their newly established highs.

📊 Weekly charts:

(Refer to the STI weekly performance table below.)

📅 Week Ahead (13–17 July 2026)

In the U.S., second-quarter earnings season unofficially kicks off with the banks on 14 July, followed by industrials and mega-cap technology later in the month. Inflation data and the June retail sales report are also due, making it the most consequential macro week of the month. With estimates already revised higher, results that merely meet expectations may not be enough to extend the rally.

In China, attention turns to second-quarter GDP and June activity data for a broader assessment of growth momentum after the mixed inflation readings. Investors will also watch whether Friday's sharp reversal in mainland semiconductor stocks extends, given the increasingly divergent performance within the technology sector.

In Singapore, MTI releases advance Q2 GDP estimates on Tuesday morning, with the MAS July policy review also in focus — economists broadly expect monetary policy to be left unchanged. Bank-share momentum will be the key market barometer following the record-setting week.

🗓️ Overarching Watchpoint

The collision of U.S. earnings season kickoff with inflation data is the week's biggest binary risk. With S&P 500 earnings expected to grow 23% and yields already rising on higher oil, a hot inflation print or bank results that merely meet elevated expectations could unwind the market's AI-driven momentum — while upside surprises would validate the second-half broadening thesis.

Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports.

Soft Jobs, Firm Markets: Hong Kong Leads Global Rebound

noreply@blogger.com (Fan Jun) — Sat, 04 Jul 2026 14:07:26 +0000

Global equities pushed higher in a holiday-shortened week as cooling U.S. labor data tempered rate-hike fears and risk appetite returned across Asia. In the U.S., the major indices advanced after June payrolls missed expectations, dragging the odds of a July Fed hike sharply lower. Hong Kong staged a powerful rebound from June's slump, led by healthcare, biotech and platform names, while mainland benchmarks were mixed as a global technology-led sell-off hit semiconductor and AI shares. In Singapore, the STI extended its record run, supported by ST Engineering and the banks ahead of early-August results.

🇺🇸 United States

Market Overview

U.S. equities finished the holiday-shortened week higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gaining +1.97% to 52,900.07, the S&P 500 (SPX) adding +1.76% to 7,483.24, and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) rising +2.12% to 25,832.67. Small- and mid-cap benchmarks lagged and finished lower, and markets were closed on Friday in observance of Independence Day.

(Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables below.)

Index Weekly Performance

- Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): +1.97%
- S&P 500 (SPX): +1.76%
- Nasdaq Composite (COMP): +2.12%

Monthly Performance — June 2026

June closed on a mixed note for U.S. equities. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose +2.52% for the month, while the S&P 500 slipped -1.06% and the Nasdaq Composite fell -2.81%, reflecting the defensive rotation out of technology that dominated the back half of the month. Year-to-date, all three benchmarks remain firmly in positive territory.

(Refer to the major indices' monthly performance table below.)

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ June Payrolls Miss Marks Softest Print Since February

Nonfarm payrolls rose just 57,000 in June against expectations of around 110,000, with April and May both revised lower. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2% and wage growth held at 3.5% YoY — a cooling but not cracking labor market that keeps the Goldilocks narrative intact.

2️⃣ July Rate-Hike Odds Slide as Fed Stays Split

The probability of a July hike fell from roughly 29% to 18% after the payrolls miss, per CME FedWatch. The June FOMC held rates unanimously, but the committee remains evenly split between one to two hikes and steady-to-lower rates for 2026, with Chair Kevin Warsh prioritising inflation.

3️⃣ Private Hiring and Job Openings Send Mixed Signals

ADP reported a weaker-than-expected 98,000 private payroll gain in June, concentrated in services and small firms. JOLTS openings, however, rose to 7.594 million in May — the highest since May 2024 — with hiring and quits rates steady, pointing to gradual cooling rather than deterioration.

4️⃣ Manufacturing Expands a Sixth Month; Confidence Subdued

ISM manufacturing PMI eased to 53.3 in June, missing estimates but marking a sixth straight month of expansion, with prices paid falling sharply to 73.0. Consumer confidence printed 91.2, improving slightly, though respondents' assessment of job availability hit its weakest level in over five years.

5️⃣ Treasury Yields Back Up Despite Soft Jobs

The 10-year Treasury yield rose from 4.37% to about 4.49% by Thursday, pressuring bonds and rate-sensitive equities. Investment-grade credit modestly outperformed Treasuries with oversubscribed new issues, while high yield sentiment was mixed — cautious secondary tone offset by resilient primary issuance.

6️⃣ WTI Slips Below $70 as Hormuz Traffic Recovers

Crude retreated to pre-conflict levels as U.S.–Iran negotiations progressed and Strait of Hormuz traffic picked up. Pump prices typically lag crude by four to eight weeks, so easing gasoline costs into autumn would offer consumers — and the Fed — welcome relief on headline inflation.

S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

Rotation into cyclicals and rate-relief plays defined the week. Financials led the S&P 500 sector table, followed by communication services and consumer discretionary, with health care not far behind. On the losing side, real estate, energy and utilities finished lower, while technology slipped modestly as investors trimmed the year's biggest winners.

(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

Technical Snapshot

The DJI printed fresh record highs above 52,900, confirming the leadership rotation toward value and cyclicals. The SPX is consolidating just below its late-June peak near 7,500, while the Nasdaq is rebuilding after June's pullback and holding above 25,500. The path of least resistance remains higher while payroll-driven rate relief holds, though rising long-end yields are the key technical headwind.

📊 Weekly charts:

DJI weeklychart

SPX weeklychart

Nasdaqweekly chart

🇨🇳 China / Hong Kong

Market Overview

Chinese equities were mixed as a sharp global technology-led sell-off weighed on mainland semiconductor and AI-related shares, offsetting support from better-than-expected manufacturing data and improved short-term liquidity. The CSI 300 fell -0.54%, while the Shanghai Composite (SSE) edged up +0.41% to 4,043.64. Hong Kong outperformed on rotation into non-tech areas, with the Hang Seng Index (HSI) surging +2.99% to 23,350.03.

Index Weekly Performance

- CSI 300: -0.54%
- Shanghai Composite (SSE): +0.41%
- Hang Seng Index (HSI): +2.99%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ June PMIs Point to Resilient Manufacturing Activity

The official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 from 50.0, back in expansion on stronger production, new orders and continued high-tech strength, while the non-manufacturing gauge edged up to 50.2. The private RatingDog manufacturing PMI eased slightly to 51.7, underscoring an uneven recovery skewed toward high-tech and downstream segments.

2️⃣ PBOC Debuts Overnight Reverse Repos to Smooth Liquidity

The PBOC launched a new overnight reverse repo tool, injecting CNY 300 billion on Monday and CNY 600 billion on Tuesday at 1.25%, while the seven-day rate held at 1.4%. The move supports liquidity-sensitive sentiment but reads as a monetary framework refinement rather than the start of broad easing.

3️⃣ Healthcare, Biotech and Platforms Power the HSI Rebound

CSPC Pharma (+19.58%), Hansoh (+17.59%), Innovent Bio (+16.83%) and WuXi Bio (+13.68%) topped the constituent table, while BYD (+15.76%), Baidu (+12.30%) and Meituan (+11.44%) led a broad bounce in beaten-down platforms. Heavyweights Alibaba (+5.14%) and Tencent (+4.71%) posted more measured gains.

4️⃣ Tech Hardware Sell-Off Hits Mainland; Banks Lag in HK

The global technology-led sell-off dragged mainland semiconductor and AI names lower, pulling the CSI 300 down even as the broader tape rotated into non-tech areas. In Hong Kong, SMIC (-3.00%), Lenovo (-9.13%) and CITIC (-8.57%) fell, alongside mainland banks CCB (-5.81%), Bank of China (-4.94%) and ICBC (-2.87%).

5️⃣ Sell-Side Turns Constructive on Internet Names

Maybank's Dim Sum Weekly flags improving risk-reward in internet names on light positioning and a better earnings outlook after a weak 1H26, preferring NetEase (+9.55%) and Trip.com (+6.23%), and stays constructive on HKEX as a capital-connect beneficiary. It views the HK IPO lock-up overhang as manageable (~2% of annual turnover) but recommends profit-taking in Knowledge Atlas ahead of its lock-up expiry.

Technical Snapshot

The HSI reclaimed the 23,000 handle with a strong weekly candle after June's -9.14% slump, though it remains down -8.90% year-to-date; near-term resistance sits toward 23,800–24,000, with 23,000 now initial support. Mainland action is diverging, with the SSE holding above 4,000 while the CSI 300 slipped on the tech unwind. A decisive mainland break higher is needed to confirm the Hong Kong recovery has legs.

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents’ weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

🇸🇬 Singapore

Market Overview

The Straits Times Index (STI) rose +1.01% to close at 5,244.29, extending its record-setting run and lifting year-to-date gains to +12.87%. Advances were led by ST Engineering and the three banks, offsetting weakness in Sembcorp Industries and the REITs. (Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables below.)

Index Weekly Performance

- Straits Times Index (STI): +1.01%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ ST Engineering Extends Its Defence-Led Advance

ST Engineering (S63) gained +4.23% to $10.85, taking year-to-date gains to +28.86% and cementing its place among the STI's top performers of 2026. Elevated global defence spending and a robust order book continue to underpin the re-rating.

2️⃣ Banks Firm Ahead of Early-August H1 Results

DBS (D05) rose +2.03%, OCBC (O39) +1.81% and UOB (U11) +1.11% as the trio drifted higher ahead of H1 results — DBS on 6 Aug and OCBC on 7 Aug, with UOB in the same window. Focus will turn to NIM resilience, fee momentum and dividend guidance.

3️⃣ Sembcorp Slumps to the Bottom of the Table

Sembcorp Industries (U96) tumbled -7.43%, by far the STI's worst performer, dragging its year-to-date return into negative territory. Keppel (BN4, -1.81%) also weakened, leaving the industrials-utilities pair as the week's clear laggards.

4️⃣ REITs Soften as U.S. Yields Back Up

CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (A17U) fell -1.97% and Frasers Centrepoint Trust (J69U) -1.75%, with most Mapletree vehicles flat to lower. The backup in the 10-year Treasury yield weighed on the rate-sensitive S-REIT complex, capping the STI's overall advance.

(Refer to the STI weekly performance table below.)

Technical Snapshot

The STI closed at a fresh record 5,244, holding comfortably above the 5,200 breakout level. Initial support sits at 5,150, then the 5,000 psychological zone, with momentum elevated but not yet at extremes. The uptrend remains intact while the index holds above 5,150.

📊 Weekly charts:

STI weeklychart

📅 Week Ahead (6–10 Jul 2026)

In the U.S., minutes of the June FOMC meeting headline the calendar, with markets parsing the committee's even split for the balance of hike risk into the July decision. Jobless claims and Fed speakers will refine the post-payrolls rate path, while positioning builds ahead of the Q2 earnings season that kicks off with the big banks the following week.

In China and Hong Kong, June CPI and PPI plus the Caixin services PMI will test whether the mainland economy is stabilising. Follow-through in the healthcare and platform rally, alongside southbound flows via Stock Connect, will indicate whether the HSI rebound has legs.

In Singapore, attention turns to the advance Q2 GDP estimate due mid-month and regional trade data. With the STI at records and bank results approaching, watch whether S-REIT weakness deepens if U.S. yields continue to climb.

🗓️ Overarching Watchpoint

The June FOMC minutes are the week's key binary risk. A hawkish read on the committee's even split could reprice July hike odds sharply higher, lifting yields and pressuring the rate-relief rally — particularly rate-sensitive S-REITs and the fragile Hong Kong rebound.

Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports.

Tech Cracks Under Pressure: Defensives and the Dow Hold the Line

noreply@blogger.com (Fan Jun) — Sat, 27 Jun 2026 07:23:59 +0000

For the week of Jun 26, Global equity markets retreated into a risk-off posture for the week ending 27 June, as a sharp sell-off in technology shares reverberated across U.S. and Asian markets against a backdrop of elevated inflation, hawkish Fed signals, and mounting concern over stretched AI valuations. In the United States, the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 fell meaningfully as large-cap technology stocks led the decline, while the Dow Jones held up in positive territory on defensive rotation into health care, utilities, and real estate. Chinese and Hong Kong markets suffered their worst weekly performance in recent months, with the Hang Seng Index plunging on broad-based selling that was most severe in internet platforms, consumer names, and solar stocks. Singapore's Straits Times Index was effectively flat for the week, as gains in aviation, transport, and S-REIT names were offset by weakness in offshore marine, property developers, and industrials.

🇺🇸 United States

Market Overview

U.S. equities posted a divergent week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) eking out a gain of +0.60% even as the S&P 500 (SPX) fell -1.95% and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) dropped -4.60%, marking one of the tech-heavy index's sharpest weekly declines of the year. The selldown in large-cap technology and AI-related names drove the underperformance, with sector ETF data pointing to Technology (XLK) as the week's worst performer, while defensives including Health Care (XLV) and Utilities (XLU) led the way higher — a clear rotation into safety amid rising rate and valuation concerns. PCE inflation data for May, released during the week, confirmed headline inflation at 4.1% year-over-year — the highest since April 2023 — keeping the Fed's hawkish posture intact and reinforcing the pressure on growth-oriented equity valuations.

(Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables below.)

Major Indices – Weekly Performance

· Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): +0.6%

· S&P 500 (SPX): -1.95%

· Nasdaq Composite (COMP): -4.6%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Technology Leads Market Lower; AI Valuations Under Scrutiny

Technology (XLK) fell -5.40% for the week, the worst-performing S&P 500 sector by a significant margin, as concerns over stretched AI valuations and slowing growth in mega-cap names triggered broad selling. Magnificent 7 constituents bore the brunt of the decline, and SpaceX shares are now down approximately 25% from their post-IPO peak. The move reflects a growing market consensus that the AI-driven rally from March to May has reached a point of valuation exhaustion.

2️⃣ Defensive Rotation Accelerates into Health Care and Utilities

Health Care (XLV) surged +7.32%, the week's clear sector leader, as investors rotated aggressively into defensives amid the tech selloff and inflation uncertainty. Utilities (XLU) +3.22% and Real Estate (XLRE) +3.15% also posted solid gains, a notable reversal from recent weeks when rate sensitivity had weighed on these sectors. Consumer Staples (XLP) +1.69% rounded out the defensive outperformers, confirming the defensive character of the week's market movement.

3️⃣ PCE Inflation at Multi-Year High; Fed Stays Hawkish

The Bureau of Economic Analysis confirmed May PCE inflation at 4.1% year-over-year — the highest reading since April 2023 — while core PCE held at 3.4%, also a multi-year high. Personal income and consumer spending both rose 0.7% in May, ahead of estimates, signalling continued household resilience. The data kept the Fed's hawkish posture firmly intact, with half the FOMC having pencilled in further rate hikes at their June meeting; falling oil prices provide some offset but are unlikely to shift the committee's near-term stance.

4️⃣ GDP Revised Up; Business Activity Improves

First-quarter real GDP growth was revised up to 2.1% annualised from 1.6%, driven by a downward revision to imports. The S&P Global Flash Composite PMI rose to 52.2 in June — a five-month high — with manufacturing PMI reaching 55.7, its strongest since May 2022. Q2 GDP is tracking at approximately 2.5%, underpinned by robust household and business spending, though employment softened for the second consecutive month as firms focused on cost control amid elevated input prices.

5️⃣ Treasury Yields Slip as Oil Falls; Dollar Hits 2026 High

U.S. Treasuries rallied as the 10-year yield dipped below 4.40% for the first time in over a month, aided by falling oil prices and roughly in-line PCE data. Investment-grade corporate bonds gained alongside Treasuries, though high yield faced pressure from monetary policy uncertainty, heavy new issuance, and risk-off positioning. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar hit a new 2026 high on the back of the Fed's hawkish June pivot, weighing on commodity prices and international equity returns for U.S.-dollar investors.

6️⃣ Oil Collapse Adds Disinflation Tailwind Heading Into H2

WTI crude fell below $70 per barrel — down nearly $25 from a month ago and over $40 from its 2026 peak — as the U.S.–Iran interim peace agreement held and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continued to recover. Energy prices, which added 1.5 percentage points to May headline CPI, are expected to contribute materially less through the summer months. Lower energy costs should support household real incomes and consumer spending, providing an economic tailwind even as the Fed remains cautious on the rate path.

S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

Health Care (XLV) was the week's standout sector, rising +7.32% in a broad rotation into defensives as technology valuations faced scrutiny, while Utilities (XLU) +3.22% and Real Estate (XLRE) +3.15% also outperformed meaningfully. At the other end of the spectrum, Technology (XLK) fell -5.40% as AI and mega-cap growth names came under heavy selling pressure, with Communication Services (XLC) -2.99% also declining on weakness in internet-related names.

Technical Snapshot

The S&P 500 (SPX) closed at 7,354.02, down -1.95% for the week and now at +7.43% year-to-date, with the index pulling back from recent highs as technology sector weakness eroded the broader market's gains.

📊 Weekly charts:

DJI weekly chart
SPX weekly chart
Nasdaq weekly chart

🇨🇳 China / Hong Kong

Market Overview

Chinese and Hong Kong equities suffered a sharply negative week, as the global technology sell-off combined with domestic demand concerns and sector-specific pressures drove broad-based declines. The Shanghai Composite (SSE) declined -1.55% to close at 4,027.26, while the Hang Seng Index (HSI) fell -5.24% to 22,671.86 — one of its worst weekly performances in recent months — with the index now down -11.54% year-to-date. Internet platforms, solar names, and consumer discretionary stocks led the HSI lower, with the index's heavy weighting in these sectors amplifying the global technology risk-off move; the divergence from mainland benchmarks continued to reflect the HSI's concentrated exposure to names facing both domestic demand headwinds and global growth repricing.

Index Weekly Performance

· CSI 300: -1.48%

· Shanghai Composite Index (SSE): -1.55%

· Hang Seng Index(HSI): -5.24%

Key Highlights and outlook

1️⃣ Hang Seng Plunges; Internet and Solar Names Hardest Hit

The HSI's -5.24% decline was driven by broad-based selling across its largest constituents, with internet platforms suffering particularly severe losses: Alibaba fell -14.68%, Sunny Optical plunged -24.02%, Tencent declined -6.45%, and JD.com dropped -11.85%. Solar names were also deeply negative, with Xinyi Solar -14.89% and Zijin Mining -14.40%. The scale of declines across the index reflects a confluence of global risk-off sentiment, domestic demand disappointment, and sector-specific valuation resets.

2️⃣ PBOC Holds LPRs; New Liquidity Framework Under Watch

The People's Bank of China left the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged at 3.00% and 3.50% respectively — steady for 13 consecutive months — reinforcing its deliberate, targeted approach to easing. Separately, the PBOC announced plans to launch overnight reverse repo operations under a new liquidity management framework, following Governor Pan Gongsheng's Lujiazui Forum remarks. Market participants will closely watch the inaugural operation's rate and take-up for signals on the evolution of monetary policy transmission.

3️⃣ Exports Strong but Domestic Demand Remains the Weak Link

May exports rose 19.4% year-on-year — well ahead of expectations — providing a key cushion to growth, but the domestic demand picture remains challenging. Retail sales fell 0.6% YoY in May after barely positive readings in prior months, while property investment declined 16.2% YoY. Combined with fiscal underspending and sluggish fixed-asset investment momentum, the data reinforces the case for more targeted policy support in the second half of 2026, with the July Politburo meeting a key catalyst to watch.

4️⃣ Politburo Meeting in Focus; Policy Pivot Seen as Incremental

The upcoming July Politburo meeting remains the key near-term catalyst, with the market watching for more supportive rhetoric on consumption, project acceleration, and property stabilisation. Sell-side conviction names — AIA, Alibaba, COLI, and Tencent — retain their positioning as key beneficiaries of any such policy shift, given their leverage to household confidence recovery and broader risk sentiment. However, consensus expectation is for measures to remain targeted and incremental, as resilient export performance reduces urgency for a broad-based stimulus pivot.

Technical Snapshot

The Hang Seng Index closed at 22,671.86, down -5.24% for the week and now -11.54% year-to-date, breaking below recent support levels in a move accompanied by broad constituent selling that left few defensive havens within the index.

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents’ weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

SSE weekly chart
HSI weekly chart

🇸🇬 Singapore

Market Overview

The Straits Times Index (STI) closed the week essentially unchanged at 5,191.73, down just -0.02%, preserving the bulk of the prior week's strong +3.32% advance and holding its year-to-date gain at +11.74%. The near-flat close masked significant dispersion beneath the surface, with aviation names — led by SIA (C6L) +5.08% — and defensive S-REIT and staple names posting solid gains, while offshore marine names, property developers, and select industrials gave back ground. Singapore's relative resilience against sharply negative regional peers underscored the market's defensive characteristics and its reduced direct exposure to the technology and internet sectors that drove losses in the U.S. and Hong Kong.

Index Weekly Performance

· Straits Times Index (STI): -0.02%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ SIA Leads Gains as Aviation Demand Outlook Holds

Singapore Airlines (C6L) rose +5.08% to close at 7.65, now up +19.53% year-to-date, as continued recovery in air travel demand and the positive margin impact of lower jet fuel costs from falling oil prices drove renewed buying interest. SATS (S58) added +2.75%, extending its run to +17.85% year-to-date, as improving passenger volumes supported the ground handler's recovery trajectory. Aviation-related names provided the week's clearest positive contribution to the STI.

2️⃣ S-REITs Recover as Rate Outlook Stabilises

Several S-REIT names posted positive returns for the week, with Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust (N2IU) +2.36%, Frasers Centrepoint Trust (J69U) +2.23%, and CapLand IntCom Trust (C38U) +2.13% all advancing, while CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (A17U) gained +1.20%. The recovery in rate-sensitive names reflects the modest easing in U.S. Treasury yields during the week, with investors reassessing distribution growth prospects as the inflation and rate outlook stabilised marginally.

3️⃣ Banks Modestly Mixed; DBS Slips on Profit-Taking

Singapore's three banks posted a mixed week, with UOB (U11) gaining +1.40% and OCBC (O39) edging up +0.93%, while DBS (D05) dipped -0.80% — likely reflecting some profit-taking after the prior week's strong advance. All three banks remain comfortably positive on a year-to-date basis, with DBS +16.09% and OCBC +25.81%, supported by healthy NIM levels, robust dividend yields, and solid NPL management. NIM trajectory into year-end remains the key watch variable for the sector.

(Refer to the STI weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly chart:

STI weekly chart

Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports.

Hawkish Pause: Fed Signals Hikes as Markets Diverge

noreply@blogger.com (Fan Jun) — Sat, 20 Jun 2026 12:26:58 +0000

For the week of Jun 20, Global markets navigated a hawkish pivot from the Federal Reserve this week, with Chair Kevin Warsh's debut press conference flagging potential rate hikes and lifting short-term Treasury yields. U.S. equities managed modest gains as resilient retail sales and easing oil prices — aided by a U.S.-Iran MOU on the Strait of Hormuz — offset the hawkish policy shock. China's onshore markets advanced on solid industrial data, though the Hang Seng Index fell sharply as offshore sentiment soured, compounded by a holiday-shortened week and persistent weakness in domestic consumption. Singapore's Straits Times Index outperformed the region, surging to a fresh high led by broad-based gains in banks, industrials, and transport names.

🇺🇸 United States

Market Overview

U.S. equities posted a modest but broad-based advance in a holiday-shortened week — markets were closed Friday for Juneteenth — with sentiment buoyed by softer oil prices following reports of a U.S.-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) led the major indices with a gain of +2.43%, while the S&P 500 (SPX) added +0.93% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose +0.71%; however, intraday volatility spiked on Wednesday when the Federal Reserve's updated projections and Chair Warsh's hawkish tone triggered a sharp sell-off in bonds and a temporary retreat in equities.

(Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables below.)

Major Indices – Weekly Performance

·       Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): +0.71%
·       S&P 500 (SPX): +0.93%
·       Nasdaq Composite (COMP): +2.43%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Fed Delivers Hawkish Pause in Warsh's First Meeting

The FOMC held the fed funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% for a fourth consecutive meeting, but the tone turned decisively more hawkish. Updated projections removed the previously expected 2026 rate cut, and roughly half of policymakers now pencil in at least one rate hike this year. Chair Warsh — who did not submit his own projections — reinforced the Fed's price-stability mandate and announced a broad operational review of the central bank's communications and frameworks.

2️⃣ Inflation Forecasts Revised Higher; Rate Cut Base Case Abandoned
The Fed raised its 2026 headline PCE inflation forecast to 3.6% and core PCE to 3.3%, levels well above the 2% target. With services inflation yet to re-accelerate and the unemployment rate anchored near 4.3%, the Fed appears content to hold — but the policy debate has shifted from "when to cut" to "how long to hold, or whether to hike." Markets responded by pricing a higher fed funds path than the Fed's own projections imply.

3️⃣ Retail Sales Beat; Housing Data Remain Challenged

May retail sales rose 0.9% month over month, beating the 0.6% consensus and reflecting resilient household consumption. Control group sales, which feed into GDP calculations, advanced 0.7%. Housing data were more mixed: housing starts fell sharply to an annualised 1.177 million in May versus expectations near 1.445 million, while the NAHB housing market index dipped to 35 amid elevated mortgage rates and rising material costs. Pending home sales offered a partial offset, rising 4.8% year over year.

4️⃣ Treasury Yields Rise Sharply at the Front End

The hawkish Fed read-through pushed short-term Treasury yields notably higher, with the two-year note hitting its highest level in over a year. Investment-grade corporate bonds underperformed Treasuries modestly, while high-yield bonds outperformed on risk-on sentiment and the week's oil-price tailwind. The widening yield advantage of short-term bonds over cash has reinforced arguments for extending duration slightly out of pure cash holdings.

5️⃣ Oil Prices Ease on U.S.-Iran MOU; Energy Sector Lags

Reports that the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding clearing the path to reopen the Strait of Hormuz dragged oil prices lower, providing a macro tailwind for inflation sentiment but weighing heavily on energy stocks. The Energy sector (XLE) was the week's worst performer, falling more than 6%, while the Technology sector benefited from the broader risk-on rebound and led all S&P 500 sectors to the upside.

6️⃣ Earnings Resilience Seen as Key Offset to Higher-for-Longer Rates

With monetary policy uncertainty likely to persist into the second half of 2026, the market's ability to sustain recent gains will hinge on continued earnings strength. Analysts see double-digit earnings growth as a viable offset to elevated discount rates, particularly if energy-driven inflation proves transitory. Sector rotation toward cyclicals and broader market participation beyond mega-cap technology remain constructive near-term signals.

S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

Technology was the clear outperformer of the week, rebounding strongly as risk appetite recovered and investors rotated back into growth-oriented names following the oil-price relief. Industrials also performed well, supported by the favourable macro backdrop from easing energy costs. On the downside, Energy was the week's laggard by a wide margin, dragged lower by the sharp fall in crude prices after the U.S.-Iran agreement.

(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

Technical Snapshot

The S&P 500 (SPX) reclaimed above the 7,500 level after previous week’s retracement, and reclaiming its 20-week moving average with improving breadth. The index has been consolidating within its three-week price range bound. Weekly uptrend still holding well.

📊 Weekly charts:

🇨🇳 China / Hong Kong

Market Overview

Chinese equity markets were mixed in a holiday-shortened week, with mainland China and Hong Kong closed Friday for the Dragon Boat Festival. Onshore markets drew support from better-than-expected industrial production data and easing oil prices, with the CSI 300 Index rising +3.44% and the Shanghai Composite (SSE) gaining +1.46%. By contrast, the Hang Seng Index (HSI) fell -3.21%, reflecting weaker offshore sentiment, persistent concern over domestic consumption, and continued pressure from the property sector.

Index Weekly Performance

·       CSI 300: +3.44%
·       Shanghai Composite Index (SSE): +1.46%
·       Hang Seng Index(HSI): -3.21%

Key Highlights and outlook

1️⃣ May Activity Data: Export Strength, Domestic Drag

China's May activity data underscored a widening split between export-facing and domestic sectors. Industrial production rose 4.5% year over year — up from 4.1% in April — supported by AI-driven manufacturing demand and robust external orders. In contrast, retail sales fell 0.6% year over year, the first annual decline since late 2022, while fixed asset investment contracted 4.1% in the first five months of the year. The surveyed urban unemployment rate eased slightly to 5.1%.

2️⃣ Property Sector Weighs Despite First-Tier City Green Shoots

Property investment fell 16.2% year over year in the first five months of 2026, and national home prices remained under pressure in May. However, new-home prices in first-tier cities rose for a third consecutive month, suggesting policy support measures are gaining traction in the largest markets. The recovery nonetheless remains geographically narrow and has yet to translate into broader private sector investment or consumer confidence.

3️⃣ PBOC Unveils Financial Market Initiatives; Short on Stimulus

PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng announced measures to expand overnight reverse repo operations, narrow the short-term interest rate corridor, and promote offshore renminbi usage, alongside initiatives to position Shanghai as a yuan-denominated asset hub. While the announcements signal continued commitment to financial market infrastructure development, they did not constitute broad-based monetary stimulus, and markets appeared to interpret them as incrementally supportive rather than a major policy shift.

4️⃣ Maybank Favours Capex and Export-Linked Names; Top Picks Highlighted

Maybank Kim Eng's Dim Sum Weekly maintained a preference for capex-leveraged and export-oriented names over domestic consumption plays, citing the AI infrastructure and industrial upgrading tailwinds. CATL and SMIC were highlighted as well-positioned semiconductor and advanced manufacturing beneficiaries. MiniMax was flagged as a tactical catch-up opportunity versus Knowledge Atlas ahead of an upcoming model update, while CK Hutchison was cited for its asset monetisation story and defensive cash flow from its global infrastructure, ports, and telecom portfolio. (MSSG Research)

Technical Snapshot

The HSI's -3.21% decline this week pushed the index back below the 24,000 level, with the weekly candle printing a notable bearish reversal after the prior week's recovery attempt. The SSE Composite held above 4,050 support and remains in a gradual uptrend despite the modest weekly gain, suggesting mainland sentiment is more resilient than offshore flows imply. Near-term direction for the HSI will likely hinge on whether domestic data prints — particularly retail and property — begin to stabilise in June.

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents’ weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

🇸🇬 Singapore

Market Overview

Singapore equities were the standout regional performer this week, with the Straits Times Index (STI) surging +3.32% to close at 5,192.70 — a fresh multi-year high and one of the index's strongest weekly performances year to date. The advance was broad-based, with SATS topping the constituent table at +10.91% and YZJ Shipbuilding, SGX, Keppel, and the three local banks all posting meaningful gains. The STI's year-to-date return now stands at +11.76%, underpinned by consistent inflows into financials and selected industrials.

Index Weekly Performance

· Straits Times Index (STI): +3.32%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ STI Surges to Fresh Multi-Year High on Broad Participation

The STI's +3.32% weekly gain was supported by broad constituent participation, with 22 of 30 index members closing in positive territory. The move confirmed a breakout above the prior resistance zone near 5,050. Sustained buying in defensively positioned banks and high-quality industrials suggests institutional accumulation rather than short-covering, a constructive structural signal.

2️⃣ Banks Lead Gains; OCBC and DBS Among Top Contributors

All three local banks posted solid weekly gains, with OCBC (O39) advancing +4.81%, DBS (D05) rising +4.30%, and UOB (U11) adding +2.86%. The banking sector continues to benefit from a higher-for-longer global rate backdrop that underpins net interest margins, alongside resilient loan demand and improving fee income. With the Fed explicitly ruling out near-term cuts, the favourable rate environment for Singapore banks remains intact into the second half of 2026.

3️⃣ S-REITs and Property Stocks Lag as Rate Sensitivity Weighs

Against the week's broadly positive backdrop, S-REITs and property-linked names underperformed. HK Land (H78) was the weakest STI constituent at -3.68%. The hawkish Fed read-through reinforced concerns that rate relief for yield-sensitive sectors remains distant, keeping cap rate pressure elevated and limiting near-term re-rating potential for the S-REIT sub-segment.

(Refer to the STI weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly chart:

STI weekly chart

📅 Week Ahead (22-26 June 2026)

U.S.

- Fed operational review announcements

- May PCE price index

🗓️ Overarching Watchpoint

The May U.S. PCE print is the week's binary risk event. A reading above the Fed's revised 3.6% forecast would materially increase the probability of a 2026 rate hike and could trigger a broader risk-off move across equities and credit; a print in line or below would ease the hawkish pressure and support the case for a prolonged but stable hold, keeping equity markets on firmer footing heading into mid-year.

Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports.

Breadth Builds: Tech Wobbles as Markets Rotate and SpaceX Debuts

noreply@blogger.com (Fan Jun) — Sun, 14 Jun 2026 11:18:26 +0000

For the week of Jun 13, global equity markets navigated a volatile but ultimately constructive week, as easing Middle East tensions and broadening market leadership offset mixed inflation data and turbulence in large-cap technology names. In the United States, all three major indices edged higher as the historic SpaceX IPO captured investor attention and rotation into cyclicals, financials, and small-caps gathered momentum even as semiconductor stocks pulled back sharply. Chinese equities delivered a split verdict — strong export data and resilient PPI growth underpinned the Shanghai Composite, while the Hang Seng slipped as weaker offshore sentiment and Pentagon scrutiny of Chinese technology firms weighed on Hong Kong-listed names. Singapore's Straits Times Index dipped modestly, dragged by profit-taking in the local banks and select industrials, even as S-REITs and logistics trusts provided partial support.

🇺🇸 United States

Market Overview

U.S. equities extended their recovery for a second consecutive week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gaining +0.66%, the S&P 500 (SPX) adding +0.65%, and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) advancing +0.70%, as improving geopolitical sentiment around a possible U.S.–Iran agreement offset a sharp mid-week selloff in semiconductor stocks. Beneath the surface, the week was defined by rotation rather than breadth, with small-caps, financials, and defensives outperforming while the concentrated AI trade took a breather. The Russell 1000 Value Index outpaced its growth counterpart for the second consecutive week, reinforcing the broadening theme.

(Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables below.)

Major Indices – Weekly Performance

·       Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI):: +0.66%
·       S&P 500 (SPX):: +0.65%
·       Nasdaq Composite (COMP): +0.70%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Semiconductor Pullback Interrupts AI Rally

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which had nearly doubled year-to-date, fell approximately 12% before partially recovering, as profit-taking after a parabolic rally — rather than any fundamental deterioration — drove the move. Large cloud providers continue to ramp AI infrastructure spending, reinforcing the longer-term structural demand thesis even as near-term positioning resets.

2️⃣ SpaceX Completes Record-Breaking IPO
SpaceX raised approximately USD 75 billion in the largest public offering in history, priced at USD 135 per share and implying a valuation near USD 1.8 trillion. With a free float of under 5%, index inclusion will be gradual — the S&P 500 has declined to fast-track eligibility, requiring a standard 12-month seasoning period — limiting near-term passive demand but preserving scarcity premium.

3️⃣ CPI Rises to 4.2% YoY as Energy Drives Headline Inflation

May CPI rose 4.2% year over year, the highest reading since April 2023, driven by a 10.7% month-over-month surge in energy prices within the PPI. Core CPI, however, moderated to +0.2% month on month (from +0.4% in April), with goods deflation reappearing for the first time in a year, providing the Fed with room to remain patient rather than pivot to tightening.

4️⃣ Fed Holds, Likely to Remove Easing Bias at June Meeting

With headline inflation energy-driven and core pressures contained, the Fed is expected to keep rates on hold while removing its explicit easing bias at the upcoming meeting. A prolonged pause — rather than a renewed tightening cycle — remains the base case, a backdrop that continues to support equity valuations as long as economic growth stays resilient and earnings momentum persists.

5️⃣ Market Breadth Improves; Equal-Weight SPX Outperforms

The equal-weight S&P 500 is now outperforming its cap-weighted counterpart by approximately 2 percentage points year-to-date (11% vs. 9%), with financials, healthcare, consumer staples, and small-caps gaining relative traction. This shift away from narrow mega-cap leadership toward broader participation is viewed as a constructive development for the sustainability of the bull market cycle.

6️⃣ Geopolitics: U.S.–Iran De-escalation Supports Risk Sentiment

President Trump's cancellation of planned U.S. strikes on Iran and reports of progress toward a bilateral agreement helped compress oil prices and Treasury yields through the latter part of the week. A sustained reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would provide meaningful relief to both energy prices and headline inflation — representing the key upside catalyst for a further broadening of equity market leadership.

S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

Sector performance diverged sharply in Week 24, with defensive and cyclical names leading while energy and communications services lagged.

(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

Technical Snapshot

The S&P 500 (SPX) at 7,431.46, posting a modest weekly gain that kept the index in a narrow consolidation range. The Index had fantastic nine-week up streak before 2.6% down by profit-taking and stabilising this week. Weekly uptrend still holding well.

📊 Weekly charts:

🇨🇳 China / Hong Kong

Market Overview

Chinese equity markets delivered a split result in Week 24, with divergent performance between onshore and offshore markets reflecting differing risk appetites and thematic drivers. The CSI 300 fell -0.82% while the Shanghai Composite (SSE) eked out a marginal +0.09% gain, as strong trade data and accelerating PPI provided some support to onshore sentiment. The Hang Seng Index (HSI) underperformed with a -0.98% decline, weighed by weaker offshore risk appetite, the Pentagon's expanded military-entity list targeting several blue-chip Chinese technology names, and renewed regulatory action in the e-commerce sector.

Index Weekly Performance

·       CSI 300: -0.82%
·       Shanghai Composite Index (SSE): +0.09%
·       Hang Seng Index(HSI): -0.98%

Key Highlights and outlook

1️⃣ Exports Surge 19.4% YoY, AI Hardware Drives Outperformance

China's May exports rose 19.4% year over year, accelerating from 14.1% in April and materially exceeding market expectations. Semiconductor exports more than doubled from a year earlier, with AI-related goods — electric vehicles, computing equipment, and advanced manufacturing — remaining the key engine of external demand. The trade surplus widened to USD 105.4 billion, reinforcing the structural role of exports as a buffer for the still-fragile domestic recovery.

2️⃣ CPI-PPI Divergence Widens; Margin Pressure Builds

China's PPI rose 3.9% year over year in May, accelerating for a third consecutive month and reaching its highest level since July 2022, driven by rising commodity and energy costs. CPI remained anchored at 1.2%, unchanged from April, highlighting the absence of meaningful cost pass-through to consumers. The widening CPI-PPI gap points to mounting pressure on corporate profit margins, particularly for domestic-facing industries with limited pricing power.

3️⃣ Pentagon Blacklist Expands to Alibaba, Baidu, BYD, WuXi AppTec

The U.S. Department of Defense expanded its list of alleged Chinese military-linked companies to include Alibaba, Baidu, BYD, WuXi AppTec, Yangtze Memory Technologies, and Unitree Robotics. The designation stops short of broad sanctions but restricts U.S. defence procurement and heightens regulatory and reputational risk. Several named companies have disputed the designation; investors should monitor for secondary effects on institutional ownership and index eligibility reviews.

4️⃣ 618 Festival Regulatory Action Creates Tactical Entry Opportunity

Regulatory action against e-commerce platforms over misleading advertising practices during the mid-year 618 shopping festival triggered a late-week pullback in the sector. While the immediate impact is sentiment-driven rather than structural, the dip presents a tactical entry for investors with medium-term conviction, particularly in names with diversified revenue streams and export-market exposure. Midea (00300.HK) and JD.com (09618.HK) are highlighted as well-positioned beneficiaries given their capacity to capture incremental AI-linked and cross-border demand. (MSSG Research)

Technical Snapshot

The Hang Seng Index closed at 24,718, extending its negative year-to-date trend (-3.56%) with a weekly loss of -0.98%, as the index struggled to sustain a recovery above the psychologically important 25,000 level. Near-term support is seen around 24,400–24,500, with a break below risking a retest of the April lows. The HSI's underperformance relative to the onshore CSI 300 reflects lingering offshore risk aversion tied to geopolitical developments and tech-sector regulatory noise; a resolution of U.S.–China technology tensions or a sustained rally in AI-linked names could be the catalyst needed to close the gap.

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents’ weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

🇸🇬 Singapore

Market Overview

The Straits Times Index (STI) slipped -0.48% to close at 5,025.80 in Week 24, paring back some of its year-to-date outperformance (+8.17%) as the local banking trio came under selling pressure and selected industrial names corrected. The retreat was orderly rather than alarming, with S-REITs and logistics trusts providing a partial cushion.

Index Weekly Performance

· Straits Times Index (STI): -0.48%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Banks Retreat on Profit-Taking; Sector Remains Well-Supported

DBS (D05) fell -0.85%, UOB (U11) -1.01%, and OCBC (O39) -1.84% on the week, as investors took profits in the sector's strongest year-to-date performers after a sustained run. The pullback is likely technical in nature rather than fundamentals-driven — Singapore bank NIMs remain resilient in a high-for-longer interest rate environment, and capital return visibility is strong.

2️⃣ S-REITs Stage Selective Recovery; Rate Sensitivity in Focus

S-REIT performance diverged along quality and sub-sector lines, with logistics and industrial names outperforming while retail and commercial trusts lagged. Mapletree Logistics Trust (M44U, +3.39%), CapLand IntCom Trust (C38U, +3.08%), and CapLand Ascendas REIT (A17U, +2.43%) led the advance as market participants positioned for a potential moderation in U.S. Treasury yields following signs of cooling core inflation. A sustained decline in the 10-year UST yield toward 4.30–4.40% would be a meaningful tailwind for S-REIT valuations.

3️⃣ STI Consolidates Near 5,000; Support Holds Amid Global Choppiness

The STI's ability to hold above the 5,000 psychological support level in the face of global volatility and domestic bank profit-taking underscores the resilience of the local market's earnings foundation.

(Refer to the STI weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly chart:

STI weekly chart

📅 Week Ahead (15-19 June 2026)

In the United States, markets will focus on the Federal Reserve's June FOMC meeting and accompanying press conference on Jun 16-17( US EST)

🗓️ Overarching Watchpoint

The single biggest binary risk for the week is the Federal Reserve's June policy statement and Powell's press conference. While no rate change is expected, the tone around the removal of the easing bias — and whether policymakers signal any concern about energy-driven headline inflation becoming entrenched — could move both Treasury yields and risk assets meaningfully in either direction, setting the trajectory for equity and credit markets into the second half of 2026.

Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports.

Holiday Data-Focused Lite Mode

noreply@blogger.com (Fan Jun) — Fri, 05 Jun 2026 13:04:35 +0000

U.S.-Iran Optimism Lifts Equities as Inflation Stays Hot

noreply@blogger.com (Fan Jun) — Sun, 31 May 2026 13:28:53 +0000

Global equities climbed in final week of May 2026, with sentiment anchored by rising hopes for a U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which pushed oil prices lower and lifted risk appetite. U.S. benchmarks closed at fresh record highs, with the Nasdaq leading the charge as AI-linked momentum held firm, even as April PCE inflation data printed hotter than expected and reinforced a hawkish Federal Reserve posture. China and Hong Kong markets were mixed — industrial profit growth accelerated sharply but fresh regulatory action against offshore brokerages weighed on Hong Kong sentiment and sent the Hang Seng lower. Singapore bucked the regional trend modestly, with the Straits Times Index slipping on profit-taking in financials and telecoms despite strength in select industrial and property names.

🇺🇸 United States

Market Overview

U.S. equity markets advanced in a holiday-shortened week, with several major benchmarks closing at all-time highs as falling oil prices and reported progress on a U.S.-Iran peace deal bolstered investor sentiment. The SPX closed at an all-time record high of 7,581.65 on Friday, May 29, 2026, officially clinching its ninth consecutive weekly gain. Markets were closed Monday in observance of Memorial Day, but the remaining four sessions were enough to push risk assets higher.

(Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables below.)

Major Indices – Weekly Performance

·       Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI):: +0.90%
·       S&P 500 (SPX):: +1.43%
·       Nasdaq Composite (COMP): +2.39%

Monthly Performance — May 2026

May 2026 delivered a strong month for U.S. equities, with technology-led momentum driving the Nasdaq Composite to a +8.36% monthly gain, its best monthly performance year-to-date. The combination of easing geopolitical risk, resilient corporate earnings, and AI investment enthusiasm underpinned the broad monthly advance, even as elevated inflation kept rate-cut expectations firmly off the table.

(Refer to the major indices' monthly performance table below.)

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Hopes Drive Risk Rally

Reports of a 60-day ceasefire extension and a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz dominated the week's narrative. Oil prices fell sharply, boosting equities and supporting a ninth consecutive weekly gain in the S&P 500. While investor enthusiasm was tempered by news of fresh U.S. strikes on Iranian targets, risk appetite held firm through Friday on reports that a final deal was imminent.

2️⃣ April PCE Inflation Rises; Fed Stays Hawkish
The BEA's April PCE price index rose 3.8% year-on-year — the hottest reading since May 2023 — and core PCE accelerated to 3.3% annually. Fed Governor Cook and Vice Chair Jefferson both flagged upside inflation risks and reinforced the case for a prolonged hold. Markets continue to price a potential hike over the next twelve months, limiting the scope for meaningful Treasury yield compression.

3️⃣ GDP Revised Down, but Underlying Demand Holds

Q1 2026 GDP was revised lower to a 1.6% annualised pace, down from an initial 2.0% estimate, with the revision driven by weaker investment and consumer spending. However, the business investment and household spending proxy — a cleaner read on underlying activity — averaged a healthier 2.2% over the past six months, pointing to resilience beneath the volatile headline figure.

4️⃣ Durable Goods Orders Surge on Transport Equipment

April durable goods orders jumped 7.9%, driven by a 21.5% surge in transportation equipment orders. Core capital goods orders — a proxy for business investment — fell 1.1% after a strong March, moderating near-term capex expectations. The data reinforced a mixed but broadly solid investment backdrop, with AI-related infrastructure spending continuing to contribute meaningfully to aggregate growth.

5️⃣ AI Investment Cycle Continues to Underpin Tech

Anthropic's valuation approached $1 trillion in a pre-IPO round, underscoring sustained investor confidence in AI infrastructure. Business investment in informational processing equipment, software, and R&D surged 6.4% annualised in Q1, contributing a full percentage point to headline GDP. The scale of this AI investment cycle is now being compared to the IT boom of the 1990s, with corporate commentary indicating further spending commitments ahead.

6️⃣ Corporate Profits Remain Strong Heading into Summer

GDP-derived corporate profits rose 12% year-on-year in Q1 2026, the strongest reading since the post-pandemic rebound in 2021. Domestic non-financial corporate margins stood at approximately 18%, near post-Covid highs. The breadth and durability of profit growth supports an overweight view on large- and mid-cap U.S. equities as market leadership continues to broaden.

S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

Technology was the week's standout performer, extending its year-to-date lead as AI enthusiasm and a more favourable rate backdrop lifted large-cap names. Materials and Consumer Discretionary also posted gains, benefitting from improved risk sentiment and lower energy input costs. On the lagging side, Energy was the weakest sector by a wide margin as falling oil prices eroded the sector's earnings outlook, while Consumer Staples and Utilities retreated as defensive positioning unwound alongside the broader risk-on tone.

(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

Technical Snapshot

The S&P 500 (SPX) closed at fresh record highs, with price action holding comfortably above its 20-week and 50-week moving averages on continued volume. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) confirmed technical breakout momentum, with the AI-driven mega-cap complex providing consistent breadth leadership through the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lagged relatively but remained in a constructive trend; the near-term risk is a pullback should the Iran deal unravel or PCE data continue to surprise to the upside.

📊 Weekly charts:

🇨🇳 China / Hong Kong

Market Overview

China and Hong Kong markets were mixed during a shortened trading week, with Hong Kong closed on 25 May for Buddha's Birthday. The blue chip benchmark CSI 300 Index edged up 0.97%, the Shanghai Composite Index(SSE) fell 1.08%, reversing the prior week's modest gains as regulatory news flow weighed on sentiment. The Hang Seng Index (HSI) declined -1.65%, dragged by brokerage sector sell-offs following the CSRC crackdown on offshore online trading platforms. Southbound flows remained broadly negative on net, with Alibaba and Tencent among the top net sells for the week.

Index Weekly Performance

·       CSI 300: +0.97%
·       Shanghai Composite Index (SSE): -1.08%
·       Hang Seng Index(HSI): -1.65%

Key Highlights and outlook

1️⃣ CSRC Crackdown on Offshore Brokerages Rattles HK

China's securities regulator imposed fines and rectification measures on Tiger Brokers, Futu Holdings, and Longbridge Securities for operating without the required mainland licences. The action triggered sharp declines in offshore-listed brokerage shares and contributed materially to Hong Kong's weekly decline. Regulators appear focused on channelling retail flows through formal, regulated platforms such as Stock Connect.

2️⃣ Industrial Profits Surge but Recovery Remains Patchy

April industrial profits jumped 24.7% year-on-year, accelerating from 15.8% in March, supported by stronger earnings in energy, raw materials, and technology-related exports. However, consumer-facing industries including furniture and autos reported weaker profitability, highlighting the uneven nature of China's recovery. Policy support and external demand remain the key props for industrial earnings momentum.

3️⃣ AI Infrastructure Stocks Attract Southbound Interest

SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor led southbound net buys for the week, reflecting continued investor appetite for domestic AI infrastructure and semiconductor names. Baidu's AI cloud revenue surged 79% year-on-year in Q1 2026, with AI-powered services now accounting for more than half of group revenue for the first time. GDS Holdings also reported strong Q1 results, with adjusted EBITDA rising 47.2% year-on-year on hyperscale data centre demand.

4️⃣ Hong Kong Positions as Global Wealth Hub Rival

Hong Kong overtook Switzerland as the world's largest cross-border offshore wealth centre, with assets under management reaching USD 2.95 trillion according to BCG data. HKEX CEO Bonnie Chan separately pitched the city to Central Asian sovereign issuers as a secondary listing venue, citing average daily turnover of HKD 270 billion. The dual messaging underscores Hong Kong's ongoing effort to broaden its capital markets positioning despite lingering geopolitical sensitivities.

5️⃣ Consumer Platform Stocks Offer Selective Opportunities

NetEase (9999.HK) continued to demonstrate resilient earnings momentum with Q1 2026 revenue up 6.1% year-on-year and gross profit rising 14.8%, driven by strong gaming titles and expanding overseas operations. Tongcheng Travel (780.HK) posted 14.4% revenue growth and 19.4% adjusted profit growth in Q1, underpinned by resilient domestic travel demand and deepening penetration into lower-tier cities. Both names trade at undemanding valuations relative to peers. (MSSG Reports)

Technical Snapshot

The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 25,182, retreating below near-term support amid brokerage sector headwinds and net southbound outflows. The SSE Composite remains in a corrective phase near the 4,050–4,150 range following the prior month's sharp advance, with the index down -1.08% for the week but still holding a modest year-to-date gain. Sentiment stabilisation will likely require a combination of cleaner regulatory news flow and confirmation that AI infrastructure demand is translating into broader earnings upgrades across the tech complex.

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents’ weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts:

🇸🇬 Singapore

Market Overview

The Straits Times Index (STI) dipped -0.60% for the final week of May. Despite the modest weekly pullback, the STI held a solid year-to-date advance of +8.43%, supported by a strong performance in May. SATS led all STI constituents with a gain of +17.38%, while City Development and Sembcorp Industries also posted meaningful weekly gains. At the other end, Jardine Matheson, Singtel, and Seatrium were the week's laggards.

Index Weekly Performance

· Straits Times Index (STI): +0.19%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ SATS Surges on Aviation Demand Recovery

SATS (S58) shot up +17.38% for the week, easily the best performer among STI constituents. The move likely reflects a combination of recovering air travel volumes, supported by FY26 revenue growth to a record S$6.35bn and higher cargo and flight volumes. The stock's year-to-date gain remains modest at +1.05%, suggesting the week's move may reflect catch-up with the broader recovery theme.

2️⃣ REITs Under Pressure from Rate and Macro Headwinds

Singapore's REIT sub-sector remained under pressure, with CapAscendas REIT (-0.79%), CapLand IntCom Trust (-0.87%), and Mapletree Industrial Trust (-0.51%) all in the red for the week. The persistently elevated rate environment continues to weigh on distribution yields relative to risk-free alternatives, keeping sentiment cautious. Keppel DC REIT bucked the trend with a +0.87% gain, supported by data centre demand tailwinds.

Technical Snapshot

The STI closed at 5,037.86, consolidating near the 5,000–5,100 support zone after last week's modest pullback. The index remains above its 20-week moving average, preserving the medium-term uptrend that has been in place since early 2026. A sustained hold above 5,000 would be required to maintain the constructive technical setup; a break below that level could signal a deeper retracement toward the 4,900 area.

(Refer to the STI stocks weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly chart:

STI weekly chart

📅 Week Ahead (1-5 June 2026)

U.S. May nonfarm payrolls report (Friday) as the key data event, with consensus expecting a moderation in job gains following April's stronger-than-expected print. ISM manufacturing PMI is due on Monday, with services PMI following mid-week.

🗓️ Overarching Watchpoint

The durability of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire narrative is the single biggest binary risk for the week ahead. A confirmed, durable deal with Strait of Hormuz reopening would further compress oil prices, ease inflation expectations, and extend the equity rally; a breakdown or fresh military escalation would quickly reverse the week's risk-on gains and reprice rate expectations higher.

Source: Some content and data are excerpted from publicly available market reports.

Eight Weeks and Counting: Yields Rise as Equities Hold Firm

noreply@blogger.com (Fan Jun) — Sat, 23 May 2026 16:15:30 +0000

Global equities navigated a week of diverging signals, as rising Treasury yields and sticky inflation pressures tested market resilience across asset classes. U.S. stocks extended their winning streak to eight consecutive weeks — the longest run since 2023 — powered by AI optimism from NVIDIA's strong earnings and cautious optimism around U.S.-Iran negotiations, even as record-low consumer sentiment and surging input costs kept the mood measured. Chinese mainland markets edged lower on disappointing April activity data that missed expectations on industrial output and retail sales, while Hong Kong bore sharper declines as technology and export-sensitive sectors faced headwinds from higher global yields and softening foreign risk appetite. Singapore bucked the regional softness, with the Straits Times Index advancing on broad-based constituent gains led by industrials, financials, and select mid-cap names.

🇺🇸 United States

Market Overview

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) surged to a fresh all-time high, gaining +2.13% and marking the standout move of the week among major U.S. benchmarks, while the S&P 500 (SPX) added +0.88% for its eighth straight weekly advance — the longest winning streak since 2023. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) rose a more modest +0.45%, with gains underpinned by NVIDIA's stronger-than-expected earnings and sustained AI sector momentum, even as the 10-year Treasury yield climbed toward 4.69% mid-week before partially retreating on U.S.-Iran negotiation optimism. Small-cap and value stocks outperformed large-cap and growth shares, and the equal-weighted S&P 500 outpaced its market cap-weighted counterpart, pointing to broadening participation beneath the headline numbers.

(Refer to the major indices' weekly performance tables below.)

Index Weekly Performance

- Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): +2.13%

- S&P 500 (SPX): +0.88%

- Nasdaq Composite (COMP): +0.45%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ Eight-Week Winning Streak, Broadening Participation

The S&P 500 closed higher for the eighth consecutive week — its longest unbroken advance since 2023 — with the Dow reaching a fresh all-time high. Notably, small-cap and value stocks outperformed, and the equal-weighted index outpaced its market-cap-weighted counterpart, suggesting the rally is becoming less concentrated and more durable across sectors and market segments.

2️⃣ NVIDIA Earnings Reinforce AI Investment Thesis

NVIDIA's stronger-than-expected quarterly results provided the key mid-week catalyst, reinforcing the AI-driven earnings narrative that has underpinned much of the market's recovery since April. The results helped offset geopolitical uncertainty stemming from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and kept technology-adjacent names well supported despite the backdrop of rising rates.

3️⃣ Treasury Yields Test Equities; Fed Signals Hawkish Patience

The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to a midweek peak of 4.69% — near the top of its three-year range — before retreating to around 4.56% as diplomacy headlines provided relief. Fed minutes from the April meeting showed a majority of policymakers open to further tightening if inflation remains persistently above the 2% target, reinforcing a higher-for-longer rate narrative that could test valuations if yields resume their ascent.

4️⃣ Inflation Metrics Remain Concerning

May flash PMI data showed input costs rising at the fastest pace since late 2022, with selling price inflation also accelerating sharply. Headline CPI reached 3.8% in April while producer prices climbed 6%, raising the question of whether inflation pressures extend beyond energy alone. The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a record low of 44.8, with one-year inflation expectations rising to 4.8% — the highest since the Middle East conflict began.

5️⃣ Housing Market Remains Depressed

The NAHB Housing Market Index edged up to 37 but stayed below the neutral threshold of 50 for the 25th consecutive month, as 30-year mortgage rates climbed to 6.51% — the highest since August. Housing starts declined and pending home sales growth decelerated, underscoring the drag that elevated borrowing costs continue to exert on the interest-rate-sensitive housing sector.

6️⃣ U.S.-Iran Diplomacy Provides Partial Market Relief

President Trump's comment that U.S.-Iran talks were in their "final stages" provided a mid-week sentiment boost, helping Treasuries recover and moderating equity volatility. No deal was finalised, and the situation remained fluid, but investors increasingly priced a diplomatic resolution as the more probable scenario, with oil prices easing slightly — a development that could offer meaningful relief to headline inflation if a deal materialises.

S&P 500 Sectors in Focus

Defensive and rate-sensitive sectors led the week's advance, with Utilities and Health Care posting the strongest gains, followed closely by Real Estate — the latter likely reflecting positioning around expectations that any Middle East de-escalation could ease inflationary pressures and eventually bring rates lower. Technology continued to outperform on an absolute basis, supported by NVIDIA's earnings beat and the broader AI capex cycle narrative, while Consumer Discretionary also advanced solidly. At the other end of the table, Communication Services was the sole sector to close in negative territory, while Materials ended essentially flat, weighed by uncertainty over the global demand outlook.

(Refer to the SPX sector ETF weekly performance table below.)

Technical Snapshot

The S&P 500 (SPX) extended its eight-week winning streak, consolidating near recent highs with momentum indicators remaining constructive, though mildly overbought conditions warrant attention should Treasury yields resume their advance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) confirmed its breakout to a fresh all-time high, a technically significant development that reinforces the underlying strength in blue-chip equities. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) lagged on a relative basis but remains well above its key moving averages; a shallow pullback toward recent breakout levels would likely represent a constructive entry opportunity rather than a trend reversal.

📊 Weekly charts:

DJI weekly chart

SPX weekly chart

Nasdaq weekly chart

🇨🇳 China / Hong Kong

Market Overview

Chinese equities retreated over the week as disappointing April activity data renewed concerns about the durability of the domestic recovery. The CSI 300 Index declined -0.30% and the Shanghai Composite (SSE) fell -0.54%, with mainland markets proving relatively resilient compared to Hong Kong, where the Hang Seng Index (HSI) dropped -1.37% as technology and export-sensitive sectors faced compounded pressure from higher global yields and softer foreign risk appetite. Bright spots were limited — notable weekly gainers within the HSI included Lenovo and Sunny Optical, while the bulk of the index gave ground.

Index Weekly Performance

- CSI 300 (CSI 300): -0.30%

- Shanghai Composite (SSE): -0.54%

- Hang Seng Index (HSI): -1.37%

Key Highlights and Outlook

1️⃣ April Activity Data Miss Revives Stimulus Expectations

China's April activity data missed consensus on all key metrics: industrial output grew 4.1% year over year versus 5.7% in March, while retail sales expanded just 0.2% YoY — the weakest reading since late 2022. Fixed asset investment contracted in the January-to-April period. The persistent weakness in property-related activity and soft consumption data raised market expectations for additional targeted fiscal or sector-specific support measures heading into the second quarter.

2️⃣ PBOC Holds Rates; Targeted Stimulus Seen as Preferred Tool

The People's Bank of China left the one-year Loan Prime Rate at 3.00% and the five-year LPR at 3.50% for the 12th consecutive month, matching market expectations but reinforcing a posture of deliberate restraint. The steady-rate decision suggested Beijing's near-term preference for targeted fiscal measures and accelerated infrastructure project rollouts — some approved in 1Q26 — over broad-based monetary easing, with selective support for priority sectors the more likely lever to prop up domestic demand.

3️⃣ Putin-Xi Summit Reinforces Sino-Russian Ties Amid Washington Pivot

Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Beijing on May 19–20, with China and Russia signing over 40 bilateral agreements spanning trade, energy, technology, and media cooperation. Discussions around the proposed Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline attracted attention, though no final agreement was announced. The summit underscored Beijing's dual-track foreign policy — maintaining deep strategic alignment with Moscow while simultaneously stabilising the relationship with Washington following the Xi-Trump bilateral meeting earlier in May.

4️⃣ Copper and Semiconductors Emerge as Structural Plays

Elevated global oil prices and the ongoing U.S.-Iran stalemate continued to support the case for inflation hedges. Copper producers — including Jiangxi Copper (358 HK), rated BUY with a 12M target price of HKD 46.63 — attracted interest as structural demand drivers from AI data centres, renewable energy infrastructure, and grid upgrades converge with a tightening global supply picture. Meanwhile, SMIC (981 HK), rated BUY with a 12M target price of HKD 88.00, reported 1Q26 revenue up 11.5% YoY with gross margin ahead of expectations at 20%, and guided for revenue growth of 14–16% QoQ in 2Q26 — reinforcing its position as a key beneficiary of China's semiconductor localisation drive.

5️⃣ World Cup Catalyst Approaching for Consumer and Streaming Names

With the 2026 FIFA World Cup kicking off on 11 June, event-driven positioning began building around streaming and consumer-facing equities. China Mobile (941 HK), rated BUY with a 12M target of HKD 95.00, could benefit via its Migu streaming platform, while Budweiser APAC (1876 HK), rated BUY with a 12M target of HKD 9.16 and a forward dividend yield of 6.2%, returned to volume growth in China in 1Q26 and is positioned to capture peak summer season and World Cup consumption momentum across key Asian markets.

Technical Snapshot

The Hang Seng Index (HSI) extended its pullback from April highs, closing the week lower and testing near-term support around the 25,600 level with momentum indicators turning neutral-to-negative. The Shanghai Composite (SSE) displayed relative resilience, declining modestly and stuck between its 20-50 day moving average, reflecting the market's awareness of potential policy support as a floor. A sustained hold of the HSI above the 25,000–25,200 support band is essential to preserve the broader uptrend; failure to do so would likely invite further selling and shift the technical picture to cautious.

(Refer to the Hang Seng Index constituents’ weekly performance table below.)

📊 Weekly charts: