Wisconsin Sports Fanatic

Packer Draft 2010 - Senior Bowl Thoughts

2010-01-27T12:58:00.004-06:00

This blog will be heavily dedicated to NFL draft talk until the April event. The NFL draft has created a NFL hot stove because one draft can completely change the makeup of a team. Some people have been critical of Thompson, in fact, midway through the 2008 6-10 season it could have been argued that only Greg Jennings was an above average draft pick by Thompson at that point. Now, the list of picks looks something like this:

Stars
Greg Jennings - Should/could be a perennial pro bowler.
Jeremicheal Finley - Star in the making, redzone nightmare.
Nick Collins - Best safety in the division by a longshot, among the best in the NFC.
Aaron Rodgers - Name an under 30 QB you would rather have. Other that Big Ben, nobody even gets on the argument list for me.
Clay Mathews - His rookie year production and family genes almost guarantee an amazing career.

Starters
BJ Raji, James Jones, Jordy Nelson, Brad Jones, AJ Hawk, Sitton, Spitz, Lang.

Just a quick run through of the list above shows Thompson has nailed on several starters and some stars. He needs to because he completely ignores free agency, but the Packers have hit on some stars in past drafts.

Senior Bowl
The Packers blog at JSOnline is having daily updates from the Senior Bowl. Here are some snippets and my thoughts.

The Packers are keeping a close eye on running backs and linebackers, among other positions, here in Mobile.

Not shocked by this. The Packers really need a complement to Grant. Brandon Jackson is a great blocker in pass protection but you could plug in Havner to give you that. The Packers need a mix up at RB, especially some speed/hands.
I really feel you will see at least one, maybe two picks dedicated to the LB position. I would be willing to guarantee the Packers will bring in someone to compete for the OLB opposite Mathews. I also feel strongly that the Packers will look for a ILB that better fits the 3-4 in the later rounds.

They were very, very high on Idaho G Mike Iupati (6-5, 325), maybe even a good possibility when they pick at No. 23. But he won't.

I hope he flies past us. I heard a lot of great things about him on the NFL Network Senior Bowl daily wrapup but he goes against one of my strongest feelings. I want my big guys from big schools who are used to playing against other big guys. Sorry, I want my Oline and Dline to come from the SEC, Big10, ACC, USC or Boston College. If you are not from one of those schools, good luck to you, but I pass.

USC S Taylor Mays (6-3, 231) looks the part (physical specimen) and hits a ton, but there are questions about whether or not he's just a one-trick pony ala Roy Williams.

I would run away from Mays. I agree completely with the Roy Williams comparison. I thought Williams was going to be great, due to all the big time plays he made for Oklahoma, but big hitting safeties need to be able to cover. Roy could not, can Taylor? One thing working for Mays is the fact he was surrounded by so much youth at USC, maybe he was trying to do too much and that caused him to be out of position.

Clemson WR Jacoby Ford could bear watching as a later round pick. He's only 5-8, 181 but he's shown good hands and can return kicks. He's a former track star that can burn. Has the kind of speed the Packers don't have much of on offense.

I would love this. I know, I know, another receiver. But the Packers need a playmaker on offense and special teams. If they can get one later on that would be great. Adding another WR would not be the worst thing. You have to figure Driver's years are limited and you would expect Nelson to step into that role. That leaves Jones and possibly a rookie for the other slot WR in the future. Although the Packers have a very good WR core, they do lack top end speed, I do not recommend them using the Raiders philosophy of drafting speed over everything else, but some added speed could make them even more dangerous.

One of the top performers so far as been Ole Miss RB/WR Dexter McCluster. He's just 5-foot-8 and 165 pounds, but he's gaining buzz as this year's version of DeSean Jackson, the multi-talented weapon for the Philadelphia Eagles. McCluster has moves to burn, and he told me he expects to run around 4.3 in the 40-yard dash at the combine. He joins Clemson's Jacoby Ford (5-8, 181) and Cincinnati's Mardy Gilyard (5-11, 179) as part of the new crop of undersized playmakers that seems to be on the rise in the NFL.
Hard to tell if the Packers have started to turn their thinking on those types of players. They've preferred to go with more durable players, but perhaps the success of Jackson with former Packers assistant Andy Reid with the Eagles has opened the Packers' eyes a little bit more. Sure seems like they could use that type of explosion in their offense.

I already voiced my opinion on getting a playmaker but I will reiterate that we really need one of these types of guys. They are man coverage busters.

Michigan LB Brandon Graham just keeps proving himself each day.

This guy could be the 2nd round pick for GB. His production is better than his measurables.

A lot of people, including the Packers, were eager to see how Massachusetts OL Vladimir Ducasse would fair against better competition. He's done OK but he's really raw and will be a bit of a project.

Ugh, they just keep falling in love with small school big guys.

Packers fans should keep an eye on West Virginia offensive tackle Selvish Capers (6-4, 304). He's shown the ability to play on the left side here in Mobile and the Packers are watching him. He's got the kind of versatility they love. He's got really good feet.

Not totally sure how I feel about this. The Big East is below the SEC, Big 10, Big 12, ACC, Pac 10, and Mountain West when it comes to level of play. If it is in the 2nd round than maybe, but I do not want to see a reach in the first round for a LT that has likely never pass blocked due to West Virginia's spread running attack.

A polling of about five NFL scouts revealed that none of them think that Oklahoma's Trent Williams (who isn't here) can play left tackle in the pros.

Which means he will be drafted too early by the Lions or some other bad team. Ouch, that was not nice. RTs should NEVER be drafted in the first round. I rank great guards and centers ahead of RT. You can always move a projected LT over to RT, but if you know from the beginning that a guy will only be a RT, pass.

Another prospect for Packers fans to watch is Penn State DL Jared Odrick (6-5, 301). He really flashed on Tuesday and needs to become more consistent, but he's a perfect fit as a 3-4 DE.

This guy also got some mention on the NFL Network recap. Not sure how I feel about it. If they think he can give a little more push in the pass rush from the inside than I am for it, but I think there are other areas of need.

Notes from ESPN:

Ole Miss RB/WR Dexter McCluster -- When you are 5-foot-8 and 165 pounds, you better be explosive, and McCluster is surely that. He is never going to be a powerful short-yardage back, but he ran downhill and was fearless between the tackles. McCluster is at his best, though, attacking the perimeter and making plays in space. He showed the quickness to separate from anyone underneath and ran by Alabama CB Javier Arenas at one point today. McCluster also caught the ball well and fielded punts cleanly, which is important because he needs to show scouts even more versatility than we've seen already.

I am falling in love with this guy. If he is available in the 3rd, great, but I do not think he will be.

Idaho OL Mike Iupati -- There is not a weakness in Iupati's game when he's lined up at guard. His quick first step, lateral quickness, and long arms make him a dominant force inside, and he is a nasty finisher who is not satisfied until defenders are on their backs. And while he struggled a bit when moved to left tackle during practice, Iupati is stepping up against the higher level of competition and based on what we've seen we have no problem giving him a late-first-round grade as a guard. In fact, he's the best guard prospect we've seen in the last two drafts.

West Virginia OL Selvish Capers -- Capers was the best offensive lineman on the South team on Day 2, showing good mobility when getting to the second linebacker as a run blocker. He also played with balance and showed good lateral mobility with his feet. During 1-on-1 drills, Capers anchored well and held his ground, at one point just erasing East Carolina DE C.J. Wilson on consecutive plays. He is not overly explosive and will have trouble at times with bigger bull rushers, and Capers needs to get stronger in the lower body, but he will be a good fit for a zone blocking scheme in which the emphasis is on getting into space and taking sound angles to defenders because he plays under control and has good feet.

I hate it when they say that a player would be great in the zone system AND say that they lack strength. WHY ARE WE USING A BLOCKING SYSTEM THAT IGNORES STRENGTH. Did the Packers not learn their lesson with Colledge?

Cincinnati WR Mardy Gilyard got off the line better than any other wideout duing 1-on-1 drills against press coverage. He beat both Ohio State S Kurt Coleman and Virginia CB Chris Cook cleanly.

I didn't see much else written about Gilyard so I will post this comment. It is huge to be able to get off the LOS, an extremely underrated element during the draft process. I do not care what your 40 time is if you can not get off the line.

AFC and NFC Championship Games

2010-01-22T10:31:00.003-06:00

I cannot believe we are already here at championship weekend. This season has flew by faster than any season for me. After these two games comes a dead week, then a week with too much coverage. It is depressing that we only have three football games left in the year.

My playoff picks have sucked. I have underestimated the Jets defense, I still cannot believe an offense that scared of its quarterback can win in today's NFL, but Revis could just be that good. I overrated Philip Rivers. I underrated the level to which the Vikings can play at home.

One quick Packer note, and a reason why I think the future is so bright for Green Bay. As a Packer fan, you have to love the character and fight the Packers showed in the Arizona game. So many of these playoff games have been blowouts when the home team has gotten out to a quick lead, the Packers were the only team to put up a fight. That showed me that the Packers have the mental toughness and talent to do special things in this league.

AFC Championship

Jets
Colts -8

At this point what the Jets have been able to do cannot be ignored, finding a way to get a win at the Chargers when I thought they were the best team was impressive. The Jets will run the ball until they absolutely cannot anymore. Meaning, they will run until they get down by two scores, which they have not. How can a team this offensively challenged not get at least one bad break against it to get down by ten? All it takes is a fumble, a special teams breakdown, something and you can be down 10 points. The same could have been said about the Pats back in 2001.

One of the biggest problems I see for the Jets in this game is Rex Ryan versus Peyton Manning. You could argue that the best defensive mind in football belongs to Ryan, whose exotic blitzes and schemes create headaches for opposing QBs and offenses. You could also argue that Peyton Manning is the greatest offensive mind in football, nothing fools him, he always can find a tell. This matchup is the game in my mind.

The Jets will try to run at Freeney and Mathis, every team has. The Jets will be able to get some first downs but have to settle for FGs in the red zone because they will be afraid to pass and the zones will shrink in the red zone. On defense the Colts wait for teams to screw up, and so many teams do screw up on 10 play drives. On Offense Peyton will identify the blitzes, get into a better protection, and hit his hot read.

The game will come down to the Colts getting touchdowns while the Jets get field goals. Ryan will get to Manning more than any other team has this season. But when you have a great defensive mind going against a great offensive mind, I will go with the guy that can actually make plays due to being in the game and that is Manning. Since Manning will have the ball in his hand he will always be able to make the last adjustment.

Colts win, Jets cover. 21-16.

NFC Championship

Viking
New Orleans -3.5

I hate to be too simple with my pick, but whoever was home in this game will win. These two teams are so much different at home. The pass rush for the Vikings is insane at the Metrodome when the offense has to go to a silent count. I am not sure any team in the last 10 years could beat this Minnesota team at home, maybe the Pats from a couple years ago. The Vikings engulfed Dallas, and they did it with mostly a four man rush. The Viking secondary is weak, but when you can drop seven and still get to the passer that really helps. One underrated item with Minnesota is the ability of Leber and Greenway to cover as LBs. These are two of the better cover LBs in football.

Problem is, this game is in New Orleans. Minnesota will lose that big edge it gets from being at home. They will not be able to get to Brees quickly with 4 rushers, meaning either they will start blitzing or Brees will have time. Both scenarios are bad for Minnesota as the matchup of the Saints WRs and Viking's DBs is a bad one. It may be the biggest matchup problem in the entire game for either side.

Favre will make some plays, but I see some struggles with the Vikings OLine in the Super Dome. If this game was played at Minnesota or on a neutral field I would go with the Vikings.

Saints 28-24

NFL Divisional Playoff Predictions

2010-01-15T09:20:00.004-06:00

I had a horrible week in the wild card round going 0-4, after having a successful regular season at hitting over 55% of the games picking ATS I laid a stinker. I did go 3-1 in over/unders, but I always feel winning over/unders just comes down to luck.

Cards
Saints -7

Home field will be factor here. The old domes get so much louder than anywhere else. I also do not like the fact that Arizona has to play the early Saturday game, it makes no sense. The Packers and Cardinals play in a great, great playoff game, the last game of wildcard weekend, then the winner has to play the early game on Saturday? Why isn't the Cowboy-Viking game here? Lets put it this way, the Cardinals-Packers game saved a pitiful bunch of wildcard games for the NFL, so the NFL rewards the winner with a shorter week than any other team, for the only team that played a four quarter game. The NFL is great, but really makes some odd decisions.

I think the crowd, and the tired Cardinals are too much to overcome here. The Saints didn't take the foot off the gas during their end of season slump, they just ran out of gas. I think the Saints come out on fire, can the Cardinals match?

If I had one negative to point out about Warner it is this. He is a front-runner. When he is hot and his team jumps out quickly, he is great. During last season's run they were in the lead the entire playoffs, it was only in the super bowl where the team ever really trailed. If roles were reversed last weekend and it was Green Bay who got out to the early lead, I do not think Warner would have brought them back. He takes too many chances.

Saints jump out quickly and look much better than they are. Similar to the illusion they showed us for the first 13 weeks. 34-14

Baltimore
Indy -6.5

I would love to go with Baltimore here. I hate how Indy rested at the end of the year. But Indy is sick of hearing that. In past years where Indy rested, they heard how great they were for several weeks, not this year. Everybody is talking about how Indy will struggle here and they will be rusty. It will not matter.

Freeney and Mathis will create havoc if Baltimore is ever forced to throw. Another truth is that Baltimore and New York probably beat the two weakest playoff teams in New England and Cincinnati, Indy is a different animal.

But, the Saturday night game is always wild. I think the Colts will start slowly, you cannot take a month off and still keep things rolling. The Ravens will be able to keep this game ugly, saving Flacco from having to throw. Eventually in the second half Indy will grab a lead or get the game close with must throw situation, and they will get to Flacco. Indy 17-13.

Dallas
Minnesota -2.5

I flat out think Minnesota is in a lot of trouble due to matchups in this game. The pass rushing of Ware and Spencer could embarass McKinney and Loadholt. I am not too confident in the complexity of Childress's passing protections to adequetely adjust to these two players. Favre has kept himself clean all year so I do not think the Vikings are ready for this pass rush.

On the other side of the ball, Minnesota will sorely miss EJ Henderson in this game. Dallas will run, run, run and without the thumper in the middle, Dallas should have success. I also am not sure who will matchup with Witten.

Minnesota is at home, a place they play at a completely different level. But Dallas just played at New Orleans when New Orleans was thought to be the best in the league. The Cowboys took that crowd out of the game, they can do it again.

If Minnesota does win here, they will win the Super Bowl. Dallas wins 23-20.

Jets
Chargers -7

This is a tougher pick than I thought. I think the Jets backed in, then got to play the worst playoff team in round one. But they matchup very well with what the Chargers like to do. San Diego is a deep passing team, they take deep drops and fire the ball downfield more than any other team in the league. Problem is, the Jets will not allow that. The Jets will bring pressure, press the receivers and force Rivers to get rid of the ball sooner than he wants. To score the Chargers will have to drive the ball down field one first down at a time not in forty yard chunks.

On the other side of the ball, the Jets have been scoring with broken plays, wildcat gimics, rollouts and other oddities in the last couple of weeks. I just think it will take some convetional scoring to get a road win here. Can Sanchez stay in the pocket to hit a big play? Can the Jets run successfully in this game?

I think the Jets could run well against the Chargers. I also think the Jets could contain the Chargers downfield. But they won't. The Chargers will jump out quickly, taking the Jets out of their running game, and making the blitzes more predictable. The problem with schemes like Rex Ryans are if the defense gets behind, the blitzes become more predictable and the more the offense has the ball the more comfortable they get with the aggressive style. Carson Palmer had guys open all over the field last week but kept on missing high. Rivers would have to throw the ball out of the stadium to miss all of his 6'5" WRs. This game could get ugly.
Chargers 24-13

Painful End to Packers Season

2010-01-11T10:47:00.003-06:00

First, I have to apoligize for the pathetic showing of my playoff picks, I went 0-4. In the regular season my picks against the spread were a very respectable
132-105, slightly over 55%. That is good enough to win you money. What Happened? How did I miss all four?

NYJ-Cin
I gave a substantial advantage to Cincy here due to Carson Palmer. At one point it became obvious that Carson Palmer was really hurt or just sucks. I hope for him that he has an injury. I thought the Bengals would force Sanchez to beat them from the pocket and they did not. The big plays the Jets made came on play action roll outs. Good for them, but I think they have a false confidence right now and I will continue to predict a loss for them. There are much better QBs ahead and I cannot imagine the Jets continueing to advance without having to throw.

Revis was really good. He defended the back shoulder fade better than anyone I have ever seen, he even intercepted it. Incredible.

Cowboys-Eagles
Extremely disappointing game. It felt like the Eagles laid down again. I was very unimpressed with their offensive gameplan. I would have gotten McNabb on the move early to get him some rollout completions. Nope. He bounced his first pass 5 yards short throwing from the pocket, then a weak run, then another incompletion, punt. The Eagles just couldn't get anything going and they only got the one big play when it mattered. The game was already going poorly for them but the Vick fumble killed them.

Ravans-Pats
This was over early as well. The Pats are too predictable on offense and looked very uninspired on defense. Horrible game to watch.

Packers
This has to rank right up there with the 2008 NFC Championship game and the 4th and 26 game against the Eagles several years ago as the most painful Packer playoff losses. This was a shot right to the gut. I think everybody would have been fine, disappointed, but fine with the loss on the field goal. We could see that ending coming. But when Arizona missed the kick, then Green Bay won the overtime toss, all Packer fans felt like we were going to win. Then when we saw the first play develop as a deep drop play action, we all knew a deep pass was coming, then the shot of Jennings breaking free only to see the ball sail over his head. We had it right there.

Two plays later our season was over. No flags, nothing to review. Play over, game over, season over. This is what can be really tough about sports, especially as a fan. Sure it is tough for players, but they can get back to work and start preparing for next season fairly soon. We have to sit and wait until preseason to see anything again for our team. That is why these losses are so much tougher on the fans, we cannot do anything about it to get the taste out of our mouth. Players can get back to work, allowing themselves to put painful moments in the past much quicker.

Why We Lost

The pass coverage was horrendous several times this year and it showed up again. This turned out to be a fatal flaw. When Harris and Blackmon went down earlier this season the Packers were forced to put too many weak DBs into the game.

Another element of the weak coverage is something that was discussed regarding how the ILBs on the roster do not fit the 3-4. More time was spent on how Barnett and Hawk will be a liability in the run game, but they were a problem all year in the passing game more than anything. This is not their fault. For a successful 3-4 pass defense you have to have taller LBs. It creates an illusion that the middle is covered, without that, the middle can look wide open, and it was yesterday.

The middle of the field is open against all 3-4 teams, the teams that are better at defending it, Dallas, have taller LBs to help make this area look covered. Against these teams there is much less room to fit it in.

Another issue that is Green Bay specific is how they treat bunched formations and certian motion. Since the Bob Sander days the secondary backs off when a team goes into a bunch formation or when an outside WR motions inside. This looks like it is a automatic adjustment that the secondary is coached to do. It must be changed. The Packers have to start mixing up how they adjust to these kind of formations.

Combine this natural opening with hot QB and a gameplan that took Green Bay out of any press coverage and you get what we saw yesterday.

Positives
Rodgers, Finley, and Jennings could become the best offensive trio in the game. Seriously.

Finley: Nobody could guard Finley, not corners, LBs, Safeties, nobody. We saw this in preseason and it showed up huge in this game. He will become a focal point for opposing defenses next season. Watch for the Packers to split him out a lot next year while having a bunch of WRs on the other side. The Finley side will require a DB and Safety leaving too few defenders to cover the bunch. I really do not know how you can defend that.

Jennings: He had a tough start to the year, but really showed up in this game. I look for him to come out better next year and really put up some great numbers.

Rodgers: The first pick was a bad decision. He has to get rid of the ball at the end on the fumble, it was a three step drop. 1, 2, 3, plant, throw. It has to happen that way, the pass protection does not setup a pocket so you cannot sit in there. Throw the ball or take off up the middle on a scramble. There can be nothing in between. Other than those two mistakes, he played great. Everything was going wrong, but he kept plugging away. If there were playing any other QB on Sunday they would have been able to overcome the horrible start and get a comfortable win.
It is also very important, even in a loss, for Rodgers and the entire team to get playoff experience. Even more importantly, I think it is important to suffer a tough playoff loss. I have always liked the NFL better when teams had to work their way up, I never have been a fan of the teams coming out of nowhere to get a Super Bowl win. I feel you should have to have some disappointment before getting the ultimate reward. That is what is weird about the Pats, they had all of their success before any disappointment.

How will Green Bay Improve?
It doesn't take a NFL expert to identify areas that need to be improved. OLine and Pass Coverage are at the top of the list. But how? I really think the Packers have to bring in a couple of free agents. They need to plug in veteran free agents into some of these competition postions instead of undrafted free agents.

Pass Coverage: Bush, Bell, and Bigby should not be out there at the worst, should be given heavy competition at best. The Pacckers will get Blackmon and Harris back, but along with that they need to bring in serious contenders for starting/backup Nickel and Dime roles. The secondary depth has to be improved.

LineBacker: Improving pass coverage also includes an upgrade at LB. I am not sure the best way to go about this, but I do not think Barnett, Hawk, Jones and Chillar are the answer for three of the LB spots. Only Mathews position should be locked in, I think at least one free agent or draft pick needs to be brought in for competion at LB, maybe one of each. Jones worked out OK as a 7th rounder, but he is still a 7th rounder for a reason. The Cowboys defense has taken off because Spencer has become a bookend to Ware. Spencer is a first rounder, Ware is a high first rounder. The Packers need to get another good athlete with better measurables into the mix.

OLine: Tauscher and Clifton need to be brought back. I do not care what the cost is. Bring these two back as a fallback plan at the worst. I would also like to see another FA brought in but I am not very optimistic. Add a prospect with the first or second pick would be the best option.

Now, how can you fix all of this in one season? You cannot. If the Packers bring back Clifton and Tauscher their OLine will be good enough to win with them and Lang. Then, they could add a 3rd rounder or better to the mix. The secondary will also have to be boosted through the draft. I do think a better fit at ILB can be found through Free Agency but I am unsure they will. Another pass rusher opposite Mathews will have to be drafted.

My guess is the Packers grab a secondary player, OT, and pass rusher in the first four rounds and hopefully bring in additional competition in the secondary and at ILB. I would actually put another Pass Rusher at the top of the list. Great Pass rushers are not easily found late in the draft, there can be misses early, but I would like a 1st rounder spent on another pass rusher. With the Packers offense, getting to the QB should be prioritized before anything outside of protecting Rodgers. The NFL game will continue to just be a bunch of shootouts. The rules and quality of QBs dictate that. There really will be no stopping of offenses, but a couple of big plays on the QB will be the only real defense possible.

If Buluga from Iowa is still there at OT in the first, by all means take him. If there is the huge dropoff that I expect after the run of OTs get drafted the Packers have to get a Pass Rusher, Coverage player whether it is a Safety or CB, if neither of those are available I would go after the best playmaker available especially if it is a RB/Kick Returner.

I have backed off on my desire for a RB. I still think they could use more speed at the position and if CJ SPiller was available when the Packers pick in the first round it would be worth the pick. Spiller could instantly help the kick return game and could add a deadly big strike running option out of the spread formations. Going back to my setup from before. You have Finley split out on one side, three WRs bunched on the other side and Spiller in the backfield with Rodgers. Now, defenses ignore the running option out of this because Grant is not a big play guy. This may be why you see the Packers motion him out so often leaving the backfield empty, they want to throw but the defense is not accounting for Grant until he is motioned out. When he has broke off plays it has always been due to a team being caught in a bad blitz or a horrible angle by the DB, not because the defense was expecting pass. Teams can ignore the Packer run from spread formations because they can still limit Grant to a 4-5 yard gain. A guy like Spiller could change that.

In all, this experience will be great for the team. With QBs like Brees, Favre, Romo, Manning, and Rivers on the horizon this defense could not hold up in coverage. A loss was imminent. If you are going to lose a playoff game in devastating fashion it may as well be here at Arizona. Next year the focus has to be to start fast, in the season and in all games. With the Packers explosive offense they could put a lot of games away by halftime. McCarthy has to identify what is causing the slow starts and change that. Get the division, and strive for home field advantage. Even though this offense would prefer dome or warm weather conditions, this defense needs the home crowd. Since the majority of fixes to this defense will likely come through the draft, the Packers have to get them at home for any hope that they will be able stop the elite QBs.

Packers-Cardinals Prediction

2010-01-08T08:47:00.002-06:00

Now to the game we care the most about. There is a lot going on back and forth regarding the 33-7 win for the Packers last week. Is Whisenhunt angry with McCarthy or his own players? I don't know, and frankly I do not give a shit. If Whisenhunt is angry with McCarthy for running a NFL offense, quit bitching. It isn't like the Packers put up 50 points. Rodgers was out of the game with plenty of time left in the third quarter, I see no problem with the way McCarthy played it. In fact, I loved the way McCarthy played it, I think he showed that if the Packers are ever in the position the Colts were, undefeated and everything clinched, that the Packers would play to win. Isn't that why we play sports, to win? I hate what the Colts did.

The Cardinals have made a lot of excuses regarding their performance last week. I am sick of that too. If they know they were not playing to win, why say so in the media, just show up on Sunday and kick the Packers ass. I get the feeling there is a lot of excuse-making in Arizona.

When looking at team stats a lot of numbers can be misleading so there are really only a few stats I pay close attention to, Offense YPG, Defense YPG, Points scored per game, Points allowed per game, 3rd down % offense, 3rd down % defense and turnover margin.

3rd Down %
GB 47
Ari 36

3rd Down % Defense
GB 36
Ari 35

Green Bay has a huge advantage here. Both defenses hold the other team about the same, but the conversion rate for the Packers is incredible. More on this stat later.

Ave Yards per Game Offense
GB 379
Ari 344

Ave Points Scored
GB 29
Ari 23

The offensive edge goes to Green Bay, it is not very close. Green Bay can move the sticks as proven by the 3rd down conversion rate, and they can score quickly as they average 13 yards per points, only New Orleans and San Diego have a better 12 yards per point. Philly has a similar yards per point to Green Bay, but Philly does not move the sticks with a poor conversion rate.

The point is this, the Packers can move the sticks or get into a quick strike shoot-out. Offensive flexibility is crucial in the playoffs.

Ave Yards Defense
GB 284
Ari 346

Ave Points Allowed
GB 18
Ari 20

Green Bay gets the edge here but be wary of the Arizona pass rush. When the Cardinals turn it on they can really create problems.

Tunrover Margin
GB 22
Ari -5

The negative turnover margin number can usually be a fatal flaw for the playoffs. The fact is this, the Packers do not turn the ball over, the Cardinals are very susceptable to turnovers.

Looking at the stats, this game is very one-sided for Green Bay, they have the advantage in almost every area.

Quarterback
Push. I am not giving Warner the nod. He is almost 40, Rodgers is in his early prime. This is Rodgers first playoff game, and it is on the road, but Rodgers does not turn it over. Unless Rodgers plays a completely uncharacteric game, these two should even each other out. Rodgers gets an advantage due to his mobility which could make up for his inexperience.

Coach
Push. Whisenhunt has been to a Super Bowl as a Head Coach, and won as an assistant. But Dom Caper has to figure into this equation and I feel his experience evens this out. If a gun was put to my head than I will go with Whisenhunt, but by a small margin. McCarthy can make a name for himself this season by making a run without Favre as his QB.

Defense
Packers. All stats point to Green Bay and I do not feel the stats lie. The Cardinals have played a couple of great games on defense but I think the Packers diversity could scare the Cardinals out of some of their blitzes. The Cardinals are at their best with very complex pressure schemes, the problem with that style is the propensity to giving up a big play and the Packers have several guys that can break off a big play, Grant, Driver, Jennings, Finley, Nelson, Jones. The Packers have 6 legit weapons that can break off a 60 yarder. Teams like the Giants and even the Vikings do not have that many legit weapons. The Gianst really only had Bradshaw and maybe Nicks. The Vikings have Peterson, Harvin, and Rice, those are three big weapons but you can account for three guys while it is very difficult to account for 5 guys on a particular play. The Cardinals need to get lucky with defensive calls to prevent big plays, if their coordinator guesses right, they look great, if not, the Packers will have big plays.

X Factor(s)
Kurt Warner. Larry Fitzgerald. Young team on Road.
All of those factor in. I did not give Warner the QB advantage, but he can be an XFactor that gets hot. Warner takes a lot of chances, if he is on fire I liken it to a hot 3point shooting team in March Madness. When Davidson got hot from three, the Badgers had no shot and Kansas(who won it all) also almost got knocked out. Warner along with Larry can make enough plays to knock out the Packers. If they get a couple big plays early the Packers may panic since they are a very young team.

I have to be honest, the Packers are just better. They are more physical, more consistant, and just plain better. Unless Warner and Larry get hot early and often I see no way the Cardinals can win. I do not care if they are mad or not, the Packers have come to play for 8 straight weeks, I see no reason why they would not come to play here.

I will say this, if it looks like the Cardinals are in a rhythm early McCarthy needs to go to a ball control offense. He cannot get into a shootout like they did with Pittsburgh. The Packers have the ability to win a shoot-out or ball control game as evidenced by their great 3rd down conversion rate and quick strike ability. They need to use that to their advantage in this game. Get the Cardinals off rhythm by playing keep away.

The Cardinals have no answer for Mathews so they will overcompensate for him allowing Jones or Barnett to hit Warner right in the face. Do not be surprised if Warner fumbles or even gets knocked out of the game. They really struggled with Mathews so you have to expect adjustments and if a blitzer comes free right in Warners face, watch out.

Packers 31-21

IF THE PACKERS WIN
Watch Out. I am nervous about this game simply because of the inexperience of the team and the ability of Warner to turn it on. But if Green Bay gets settled in and just plays their game, they will win. Then everybody else in the NFC better be worried.

The Packers and Vikings are really the only legit contenders at this point in the NFC. All of the other teams have bigger flaws. The Packers and Vikings are great against the run, both get to the passer, and both convert 3rd downs. The Saints are just bad on defense at this point and the Cowboys have trouble scoring, bad converting 3rd downs and have Wade Phillips.

The Packer and Vikings can play any style you want. They can churn the sticks or hit you quickly. The problem with the Vikings is Childress holds them back. McCarthy does not hold the Packers back, in fact his weakness in the regular season(not running early) can be a strength in the playoffs.

In the playoffs you want to start guns ablazing. Get up quickly, pass to grab the lead, run to control the game after that. Teams panic in the playoffs, especially favorites. Hit the defense with quick passing before they know what hits them. Defenses need to settle into a game and quick effective passing gets them off-balance from the start. Childress always does this wrong, he will force the run until they get behind. If the Vikings came out firing early they could grab a lead than ice it with Peterson. The problem there, however, is the Peterson fumbles. There is no secret at this point that Peterson fumbles, even worse, because of his fumbling reputation more guys are going after the ball. Usually in the playoffs if there is something that really scares you about your own team it will be that exact problem that ends your season. With the Vikings that worry has to be Peterson's fumbling. For the Packers, it is Jarret Bush. I do not know about other Packer fans, but I am very comfortable with the idea that our biggest worry is our Nickel CB/Special Teams player opposed to the Vikings biggest concern being their best player.

If the Packers get through the Arizona game I guarantee it will be Minnesota or Green Bay in the Super Bowl. Both teams can really play all offensive styles and that is vital. If either team gets down multiple scores, no problem, they can come back quickly with big plays. If either gets the lead, they can grind you out of the game by churning first down after first down.

Ravens-Patriots Prediction

2010-01-08T08:21:00.005-06:00

This game has the least buzz of the playoff games for me, maybe it is due to people writing off the Pats now that Welker is out, but something seems stale with this game. This game seems stale but the game itself will not, I foresee a very competitive game.

When looking at team stats a lot of numbers can be misleading so there are really only a few stats I pay close attention to, Offense YPG, Defense YPG, Points scored per game, Points allowed per game, 3rd down % offense, 3rd down % defense and turnover margin.

3rd Down %
Bal 41
NE 43

3rd Down % Defense
Bal 36
NE 37

The Downs stats virtually offset each other. Both teams convert and hold teams about the same.

Ave Yards per Game Offense
Bal 351
NE 397

Ave Points Scored
Bal 24
NE 26

Slight edge would go to New England for total offense, but with Welker out I think that slight advantage is negated.

Ave Yards Defense
Bal 300
NE 320

Ave Points Allowed
Bal 16
NE 17

Baltimore gets an edge here, but not by as much as you would think.

Tunrover Margin
Bal 8
NE 7

The stats above tell us nothing. There is one stat that I usually ignore that could become an issue and that is penalties, Baltimore commits a ton, New England commits none. Penalties could actually play a factor in a tight game.

Quarterback
This advantage goes to Brady, but it is not the landslide people might think. Flacco has really improved as Baltimore has put a lot of the offense on his shoulders. Last year if Baltimore got down multiple scores they were in big trouble, this year I have confidence Flacco can bring them back.

Coach
New England gets an edge, but again not by a ton. Harbough is a good coach, his teams are well-prepared and always show up to give a fight. The two negatives for the Baltimore staff are the number of penalties and the defensive scheme is not as effective as under Rex Ryan, which is not crime since Ryan has one of the best schemes in the league.

Defense
Baltimore gets the nod here. Suggs and Reed will both be back and they make a huge difference. The Pats defense has improved since the poor Saints showing but still do not possess the ability to get to the QB while defending the run and pass as well as Baltimore. With Welker out, Baltimore still possesses a good enough defense to control the game.

X Factor(s)
Home Field. The Pats are very tough at home, 8-0 this year. I think the Pat fans got a little spoiled with the undefeated season and whatnot, then Brady got knocked out last year so it has been two years since they have hosted a playoff game.
Ray Rice. Rice has the ability to take over a game. He did it this year in the second half against Minnesota and must be contained.

The line is New England -3, over/under 43. I am going with New England in a tight game 24-20. I think Vegas put this over/under right on the money. Both teams will be able to move the ball, but it will be the Pats that find a way to get one touchdown instead of a fg to get the win.

Eagles-Cowboys Prediction

2010-01-07T10:43:00.003-06:00

The Eagles-Cowboys game is the night game on Saturday. Over the years crazy things have happened on the Saturday night playoff game in the wild card round, divisional round, or both. I expect a highly entertaining game.

When looking at team stats a lot of numbers can be misleading so there are really only a few stats I pay close attention to, Offense YPG, Defense YPG, Points scored per game, Points allowed per game, 3rd down % offense, 3rd down % defense and turnover margin

3rd Down %
Phi 36
Dal 40

3rd Down % Defense
Phi 33
Dal 35

The Downs stats virtually offset each other. Dallas is slightly better at converting, Philly is slightly better at defending 3rd down. Here is one note, this stat is a big reason I see Dallas having no chance at the Super Bowl. You need to be better than 40% at converting third downs. Big plays are usually limited in the playoffs meaning you need to move the sticks.

Ave Yards per Game Offense
Phi 358
Dal 399

Ave Points Scored
Phi 27
Dal 22

It is alarming that Dallas moves the ball as well as they do yet have as low of a scoring average as they do. Philly is a big play offense which is evident in their lower yardage totals but higher scoring.

Ave Yards Defense
Phi 321
Dal 316

Ave Points Allowed
Phi 21
Dal 15

The scoring stat is a big advantage for Dallas. The yards are almost identical for these teams but there is almost a touchdown difference in scoring.

Tunrover Margin
Phi 15
Dal 1

The stats comparison for this game are tough. Philly is a big play team, on offense and defense, that is always tough to gauge. Philly needs a big play to get things going, it only takes one for them to start rolling. Last week McNabb had Jackson a couple of times deep and badly missed on the throws.

The stats slightly lean towards the Cowboys. They convert 3rd downs slightly better, they move the ball better but do not score as much, their defense is better, but the Eagles win the turnover battle. I would not base my pick on stats for this game.

Quarterback
I am giving a slight nod to McNabb simply because he has actually won a playoff game. Until Romo gets a win, the pressure will be there. McNabb also had a bad game last weekend, he will have a better game this week. McNabb is one of the biggest reasons the Eagles have had consistent success but only one Super Bowl appearance. McNabb cannot go three games in a row without playing a bit of a stinker, he played a stinker in Arizona last year and that is why the Eagles lost.

Coach
This goes to Andy Reid by a landslide. He has never lost a first round playoff game, that is all about great coaching. He will have a great game plan this week, one predicated on getting first downs and not quite so much on the big play. Expect Rb screens, bubble screens, quick crossing routes, zone flooding. Reid will call quick read passes to slow down the Dallas rush. If things go as planned, in the second half when the Dallas pass rushers are tired, Reid will look to call some deeper drops for a possible big play. The pass rushers will be tired, miss the sack on McNabb, and get beat deep.

The difference in offensive complexity in this game will be staggering.

Defense
Dallas wins this category. But that advantage can be limited if McNabb can break just a couple of sacks and hits Jackson deep. McNabb can just drive you crazy, he can play a crappy game for 2.5 quarters then break a tackle and hit you with a 70 yard touchdown.

Dallas is getting a lot of love and it is deserved. They have one of the best pass rushes in the league with Ware and Spencer coming from the outside and Ratliff collapsing the middle.
Here are some issues I have:
1. Whenever everybody loves Dallas, they disappoint.
2. The Eagles throw out random stinker games every now and then, and it rarely foreshadows a trend.
3. The coaching advantage is very large.
4. Philly will find a way to make Dallas feel the pressure of the moment, I am not sure how Dallas will react.
5. Whenever everybody is down on Philly, they smack the shit out of you.

The line on this game is Dallas-4, over/under is 45. I think the Eagles will get this game into a fast pace. The Eagles will find a way to make a couple of big plays and I think Reid gets back to some west coast passing principles to move the sticks, Screens, Route Combos, etc. Reid will find a way to get McNabb into a rhythm with short passes. Then, at some point Jackson will break off a big play, whether it is a punt return or a broken play through the air. I think Dallas will move the ball but settle for too many field goals, while Philly will get a couple big play touchdowns to make the difference. This game will feel like Dallas should be winning but trading 3s for 7s will kill them in the end.

Eagles 27
Cowboys 26

Jets-Bengals Prediction

2010-01-07T07:13:00.005-06:00

The Jets and Bengals square off in the first playoff game Saturday afternoon. In my mind this is the rematch where the previous game was absolutely meaningless, the Jets were desperate, the Bengals did not want to be there.

When looking at team stats a lot of numbers can be misleading so there are really three stats I pay close attention to, Offense YPG, Defense YPG, Points scored per game, Points allowed per game, 3rd down % offense, 3rd down % defense and turnover margin

3rd Down %
NYJ 37
Cin 40

3rd Down % Defense
NYJ 31
Cin 38

Ave Yards per Game Offense
NYJ 321
Cin 309

Ave Points Scored
NYJ 22
Cin 19

Ave Yards Defense
NYJ 252
Cin 301

Ave Points Allowed
NYJ 15
Cin 18

Tunrover Margin
NYJ -2
Cin 3

Looking at just the stats, the Jets score more, give up less, move the ball slightly better, and give up much less yardage. In fact, the only two advantages that Cincinnati has are 3rd down conversion rate and the Turnover margin. The problem is that these two stats can be killers. If you cannot convert third downs you are punting which is like a turnover if done too often. The turnover margin is really the big problem, only the Raiders had more turnovers than the Jets in the AFC.

The Stats give the edge to the Jets and that is probably why Cincinnati is favored by less than a field goal.

Here are some other items that I think about but cannot really quantify, this is more based on my opinion through games I have seen through the years.

Quarterback
This is the biggie in this game. Carson is not near the elite level everybody thought he would be at. His injury has derailed him, and there is a lack of weapons currently on that offense. But the Jets are scared of Sanchez and should be. If the Bengals can get a 10 point lead this game will be over.

Coach
I give this category a push. I not only look at the head coach, but the entire staff. The Jets have a first year head coach, but he has been involved in playoff games. This is Marvin Lewis's second trip to the playoffs as a head coach. Both of these guys made their hay by being Ravens defensive coordinators. I like the Bengals D coordinator, but I think that is offset by the Jets Special Teams coach and offensive coordinator. I do not think either team will get a significant schematic advantage.

Defense
The Jets have a better defense on paper by looking at the yards and points allowed stats. But, due to the qb discrepency in this game this is really a push for me. The Bengals are a very tough defense with two shutdown corners that allow Mike Zimmer to call a lot of blitzes. Also, with David Harris possibly missing this game, I see a push here as well.

X Factor
This category is usually based on a gut feeling I have or any weird item I think will play into the outcome. This game has a couple. Rookie QB on the road in playoffs. Cincy playing for Zimmer's wife and Chris Henry.
The Rookie QB thing is a biggie, but do not underestimate teams with any emotional motivation and the Bengals have received two this year with the death of Chris Henry and defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer's wife, who apparently the players loved.

Stats: Jets
QB: Bengals
Defense: Push
XFactor: Bengals

From my very scientific chart above I must pick the Bengals and I am. I think this game is very low scoring, both teams will run, run, run. There will be a lot of punts. The Bengals are not scared of their QB and they will get a tight win here.

Bengals 13-10.

NFL Picks Week 16

2009-12-23T11:58:00.002-06:00

Last week was the first real stinker of the year for me, I went 4-12. I am now 121-100 on the season. There are so many crappy teams right now in the NFL that you don't know which ones are even trying at this point. Oakland will probably have more quality wins than most teams that make the playoffs. They have beaten Cincy, Philly, Pittsburgh, and Denver, I cannot figure them out.

SD
Ten -4.5

I really like SD in the playoffs. I have said it before and I will say it again, they are a matchup nightmare. Floyd, Jackson and Gates give Rivers three guys he can throw it up to. This is the only team in the league that will throw a lot of deep balls NOT looking to just draw flags. Tennessee is desperate in this one, but SD gets on the national stage so infrequently that I think they will be up for this game.

Sea
GB -13

Seattle is so bad, I cannot take them on the road. GB needs this game. At the time of this game, the playoff picture will still be very blurry, by the end of the day the picture should be much clearer. GB controls its own destiny by winning out, they really need to just focus on winning this game.

Oak
Cle -3.5

I have no feel for Oakland. Maybe at this point I will just alternate going with or against Oakland each week. They surprised last week so I think they will disappoint this week.

KC
Cin -12

I am not sure how I feel about Cincy doing in a game they actually need to win. There is still some emotianal hangover from the Henry death and Charles give KC a little spark.

Buf
Atl -8

The Packers bust Brian Brohm gets the start here. Unless somebody is impersonating Brohm in this game, I give the Bills no shot. Brohm was absolutely unbearably horrible for the Packers. He was so bad that even Ted Thompson gave up on him midway through his second season, something Thompson never does with guys he drafts.

Hou
Mia -3

I do not trust Houston.

Car
NYG -7

Carolina is better with Moore at QB. If I were a Panther fan I would be wondering why he hadn't been starting earlier.

TB
NO -14

New Orleans still needs to clinch home field. They have to be upset with the way they played last week.

Jax
NE -7.5

I do not trust NE.

Bal
Pit -2

This should be a great game.

Stl
Ari -14

This should not.

Det
SF -10

Neither should this.

Den
Phi -6.5

This game is a tough one to predict. I could see a lot of possibilities. Denver has to be desperate at this point. Philly still has a shot at the two seed. In the end I will take the team that is familiar with playoff football.

NYJ
Ind -7

At some point Indy will start resting guys.

Dal -7
Was

Doesn't Washington have to be embarassed after last week? If they have any pride they will come to play this week.

Min -7
Chi

I do not know why I think this, but at some point Chicago has to play decent. If they play badly this will be an ugly scene on national tv. A blowout loss here and Lovie Smith will get fired.

What can Packers do with Mason Crosby?

2009-12-21T11:30:00.003-06:00

The Packers are screwed with their kicking game. There is no way Crosby can be an effective kicker the rest of this year. There is not one person watching the game or on the Packers that is watching Crosby attempt a kick with an positive thoughts. All of that negativity just keeps pushing these kicks right. I believe bad thoughts by a large enough group of people really can effect things like this. I have to think that, I am a fan. I sit in certain chairs, with certain shirts or hats with specific cups of coffee while I am watching the Packers because I believe all of those things can help make a difference. I truly believe our lack of confidence in Crosby can be felt by Crosby and is helping his struggles. While saying all of that, who could blame us, Crosby has sucked all year. For a kicker 80% is considered pedestrian, Crosby is hitting 72%, pathetic.

This will not improve this season. Crosby needs the offseason to come quickly to fix any mechanics issue there may be or just to clear his head. He is in a slump and that will not end this season. When everyone watching is expecting a miss, it usually misses.

Put it this way, when Crosby lines up for any kick do you have more confidence in him missing it than making it? I do, and I am sure many fans and players feel the same way. What can they do at this point? This is a the problem I have with not bringing in competition a couple of weeks ago when we could all see the problem. It is too late in my mind. Two regular season games, then the playoffs, and one of those playoff games could be a glorified scrimmage. That is not enough pressure situations to realistically work in a new kicker. This move should have been made after misses against Baltimore. Or, at least bring in some competition and give Crosby a push. Instead, the Packers just left the kicking job to Crosby and now I think that strategy has actually forced Crosby to lose more confidence. If he at least had to fight for his job a couple of weeks ago he could have gained confidence by winning the competition.

Now, we are screwed with a broken kicking game and this team cannot win three road playoff games with that problem. The good new is that the teams that are in the NFC playoffs are all explosive offenses so even making fgs may get you eliminated as you need TDs. But you would have to think if the Packers were to get to a Super Bowl that one of the four games would be a tight game and somewhat low-scoring. In that scenario, could anyone trust a Crosby kick attempt?

NFL Picks Week 15

2009-12-18T11:30:00.003-06:00

For the year my ATS picks are now at 117-88. One of the crappy teams in the league, Cleveland, was able to pull off a surprise last week in a win over Pittsburgh. Outside of Oakland, the really bad teams have done very little against any team average or better.

Dal
NO -7

I switched my pick 20 minutes after initially picking Dallas. The Saints will put on a show.

Mia
Ten Pk

There is no line on this game yet. I will take the Titans to win.

NE -7
Buf

The Pats do not look right to me and Buffalo has been playing relatively well since Jauron was fired.

Ari -12
Det

I do not trust the Cardinals but I cannot take Detroit.

SF
Phi -8.5

The 49ers are frisky. I think this will be a really good game.

Atl
NYJ -4

I cannot get a real feel for either of these teams.

Chi
Bal -11

I am not sure how much effort Chicago will give here, but I do not trust a double digit point spread with Baltimore.

Cle
KC -2

Who cares.

Hou -12
Stl

Who cares.

Cin
SD -6.5

I have no idea how Cincy will respond to the Chris Henry death. Neither do they, neither does SD. This could go any direction from SD blowout, to great game, to Cincy blowout. I think the SD blowout is the most likely. This death was too sudden, too recent, and too unpredictable for Cincy to rebound in time for this game.

Oak
Den -14

I am not a fan of QBs like Kyle Orton getting 14. Oakland has pulled some odd upsets so what the hell, I'll take a shot with the Raiders. Nope, I am switching back, there is nothing worse than coming into Sunday and realizing I am taking Russel on the road.

GB
Pit -2

I do not feel great about this one for GB. But, I am sick of hearing how angry Pittsburgh is and how they will be ready to play. Blah, Blah, Blah. They lost to KC, Oakland, and Cleveland in this losing streak. Their anger should have come out before this game. I just think that Pittsburgh is not that good w/o Troy. If NFL MVP awards could be retroactive, Troy would get last years award after we have had a chance to see how bad this team is w/o him.

TB
Sea -6.5

Tampa sucks, Seattle is boring. Who will watch this crapfest? I cannot imagine many people have any fantasy players from this game. Oh wait, I just picked up Seattle for this game. Crossing fingers I get a shutout and several sacks/turnovers.

Min -6.5
Car

I have no idea. The Vikings have pretty much tied up the two seed and Harvin is out. The difference between being an elite team and an above average team are playmakers and the Vikings have lost their biggest playmaker. Sorry AP, I have been very unimpressed with your season. Another note on this game, teams usually play much better at home in these primetime games, I am banking on that with this pick.

NYG -3
Was

I do not think the Giants are that good. In fact, I think Washington could be the better team between these two at this point.

Thursday Night Pick

2009-12-17T17:18:00.003-06:00

I will give my Thursday night pick:

Indy -3
Jax

I like the Jags to at least cover, but I think they will win outright. Indy is looking for an excuse to sit guys and a loss would give them that excuse. I do not trust Indy when they have nothing to play for, I could see a lot of important players sitting, or at least playing much less. Jax is desperate, Indy barely cares.

NFL Picks Week 14

2009-12-10T10:20:00.004-06:00

These Thursday night games make the turnaround so quick. It is great that we only have to wait two days to get the next week started, but now that college football is done I would prefer a Saturday night game this week instead of Thursday. Last week I went 10-6, running my season ATS record to 108-82.

Pit -10
Cle

I am not sure how much Pitt has left in the tank. They should get a win here but this team looks worn out. I think Tomlin is a very good coach, but there is only so many speeches and ultimatums you can give your team. Their secondary is bad and the team is hurt. The team has been without Aaron Smith and Troy Palumula for the majority of the season, even Pittsburgh cannot lose great players and make the playoffs.

NO -10
ATL

At some point the Saints will lose. If the Falcons have Matt Ryan back they should be able to make this a game.

Det
Bal -13.5

This is a lot of points but this is a playoff game for Baltimore. I love it when announcers say a game is a must win, okay, what happens now that Baltimore lost their must-win game against Green Bay. Do they quit? Announcers should not be allowed to say "Must Win" unless a team is actually eliminated from a playoff race or a playoff series. This should be an official rule.

GB -3
Chi

Every time I start to trust Green Bay they disappoint me. I have just now gotten over that second Minnesota loss. I really thought Green Bay would win that game. Among my reasons was the fact that Minnesota was coming off Baltimore/Pittsburgh back-to-back, that usually spells loss. Another big reason was that I thought the sports gods would intervene and lessen some of the Packer fan pain. You can feel any way you want about how the Packers management has handled the entire Favre saga, either way the fans have been through hell. To see Favre lighting it up and being the best teammate he has been in over a decade has been downright sickening. Favre his getting his glory, all I ask is that us Packer fans get some also. If Green Bay can get another shot at Minnesota, the football gods will hopefully be much nicer. If the Packers realize they need to continue to grind out games, this should be an easy win. If the first offensive possession is penalty-filled and/or the defense/special teams give up a big play, the Packers will be in trouble. They need to go in and step on the Bears throat.

Sea
Hou -5

Who cares? Seattle and Houston are so dis-interesting. And that is saying something considering Houston has two legitimate superstars in Mario Williams and Andre Johnson. After the way they choked away the Indy game I am giving up on this team until they actually make the playoffs some year. I promise I will never go anywhere near this bandwagon until they not only win one big game, but enough of them to actually qualify for the playoffs.

Den
Ind -7

I have no idea here, seven points sounds like too many but then you are taking Kyle Orton over Peyton Manning and that seems downright silly. Also, Denver is always one play away from having Chris Simms in at QB. I'll take the Colts.

Mia
Jax -2.5

Jacksonville has an interesting team, I think the league needs to get them to LA as soon as possible while they still have Jones-Drew in his prime. I am really serious with that, if the Jags are still in Jax next year watch for them to actually take Tebow early. That is a big, big, big mistake. There is no way Tebow can be a NFL QB, none, none, none. He can come in and be a Shotgun goal-line situation QB, that is it. He has horrible accuracy and touch, he is not a NFL QB. Get the Jags out of Jax so they can draft a player that makes sense.

Buf
KC
Good god who cares.

Cin
Min -7

I think the Vikings will bounce back here. I still think the Vikes have a lot of issues for a big-time contender, among them:
1. If you slow down the Allen pass-rush, the Viking pass defense is poor.
2. EJ Henderson is a big part of that great run defense. He will be missed.
3. All of a sudden the Vikings are a passing team.
4. I heard that McKinnie is tipping off runs/passes with his stance. If that is true it will continue to be a problem. McKinnie is not known for his smarts so even if this is coached out of him it could re-appear at an inopportune time.
With all that being said I think the Bengals will really struggle to come back if the Vikings get a couple big plays, and the Vikings will get a couple of big plays.

Car
NE -10

I do not trust New England, but their biggest weakness is pass defense and the opponent is Carolina.

NYJ -3
TB

I am shocked this is only 3 points.

STL
Ten -13

Not much to say other than STL hasn't quit.

Was -1
Oak

Oakland is a goofily built football team that can be a pain because they can do one thing great, cover WRs. They have more speed in their secondary than most divisions and this allows them to shadow WRs all over the field.

SD
Dal -3

San Diego is a tough matchup for people, especially Indy. Dallas matches up much better than most due to the size of some of their defensive players. Dallas needs this game and I think they get it.

Phi
NYG -1

Philly owns the Giants when they do not have Plax. I think they get after Eli in this one.

Ari -3
SF

Arizona is feeling really good about themselves after last week. SF gets the win.

NFL Picks Week 13

2009-12-03T14:13:00.003-06:00

I cannot believe it is already week 13. Wow it went fast.

College Picks
Oregon State +9.5, Alabama +6, Cincy -2, Georgia Tech -1, Nebraska +14

Alabama/Florida should be a great game. Alabama is built to stop Florida's spread. This game will come down to a special teams play or defensive score.

NFL
Last week I went 11-5 by utilizing a tactic I first used when betting several years ago. I would guess a line, and any line that was off from mine, I bet against. This strategy was very successful for years, then the bad year of 2005 came and a few teams covered no matter what. No matter what was thrown at them, Indy, NE, Pitt, and a couple others kept covering. It was one of the only years favorites won more ATS then dogs. I am going to bring that tactic back, I will post what I thought the line was going to be, then post the actual line next to the team. My overall record is 98-76.

New York Jets -3
Buffalo Bills
My Line: Jets -4
I missed this line by a point. The Jets are better, I will take them.

Philadelphia Eagles -6
Atlanta Falcons
My Line: Eagles -5
This line started at 4.5 and moved to 6, so I will take that as a win since 5 is right in there. I do not trust Philly even if Matt Ryan is missing.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Carolina Panthers -7
My Line: Panthers -7
Nailed this line.

St. Louis Rams
Chicago Bears -9
My Line: Bears -5
This is the first line I really missed. I am sorry, I think the Rams are showing more fight than Chicago right now.

Detroit Lions
Cincinnati Bengals -13
My Line: Bengals -15
I thought this line would be on one side or the other of 14 and it was. At 15 I would have had a very tough choice, this is a no-brainer at 13.

Tennessee Titans
Indianapolis Colts -7
My Line: Colts -6
I was really curious on this one. I think the 7 speaks to how Vegas can only go so low with Manning at home. I said a little while back that the Titans were a team to watch out for. Now, I think it can be argued that they are the 4th best team in the AFC. BTW, Chris Johnson is the best RB in the NFL, and no Adrian Peterson, it is not even close.

Houston Texans
Jacksonville Jaguars -1
My Line: Jags -2
I think last weeks loss against the Colts could break the Texans back.

Denver Broncos -5
Kansas City Chiefs
My Line: Den -7
This line feels too low. I guessed 7 because that is the number where I would have even considered betting KC. If this number had been 8, this would have been a tough choice. At 5, are you kidding?

New England Patriots -3
Miami Dolphins
My Line: NE -10
Did someone get hurt that I am unaware of? This started at 6.5 and moved down to 3. Really? Does Vegas realize that what happened to NE on Monday was due to Drew Brees. SPOILER ALERT: Chad Henne is NOT Drew Brees.

Oakland Raiders
Pittsburgh Steelers -15
My Line: Pitt -10
Is Big Ben officially back? I could see Pitt getting up two scores an taking him out. I do not trust teams that are not running full throttle with 15 points, even against the Raiders.

New Orleans Saints -10
Washington Redskins
My Line: NO -9
After the NE game there has to be a letdown. If I have learned anything in watching the NFL over the last few years it is this "Teams are rarely as good or bad as we think they are" After the performance against NE we think NO is really great.

San Diego Chargers -13
Cleveland Browns
My Line: SD -13
Nailed it.

Dallas Cowboys -2.5
New York Giants
My Line: NY -3
I think the Giants will save their season, for one week.

San Francisco 49ers
Seattle Seahawks -1
My Line: Sea -3
Seattle is so tough at home. I think that their home field advantage creates the biggest difference for any team in the league. It is worth much more than the standard 3, and likewise I think it creates just as big of a disadvantage for Seattle when they travel. Doesn't Seattle always feel like the most uneven team? You never know what you are going to get.

Minnesota Vikings -4
Arizona Cardinals
My Line: Min -3
Started at 3, moved up to 4. This is the best offense Minnesota has played. Arizona will be the first team to game plan against Favre first. They will matchup Adrian Wilson to shadow AP, allowing more guys in coverage. Brett will have his first, UGH, game of the season and it will come in the first game he was game planned against. Shocker.

Baltimore Ravens
Green Bay Packers -3
My Line: GB -3
Can I win double if I bet a push? I think this line is perfect, and I think it hits right on the number.

Thanksgiving Football, NFL Picks

2009-11-25T11:08:00.002-06:00

Quick little rant on Thanksgiving football. Anybody who hosts Thanksgiving and does not allow the tv to be on should never be allowed to host Thanksgiving. Football is as synonymous with Thanksgiving as turkey, mashed potatoes, and pumpkin pie. I can put up with having the tv muted during actual mealtime, but that is it. I constantly hear of guys who will not be able to watch games on Thanksgiving because it is not allowed. WHY!!! The more time family members are forced to talk with each other w/o the distraction of a tv can only lead to problems.

Put the games on, it will allow everyone to get along better. Embrace it, do not fight it.

NFL Picks
The picks are holding steady if not spectacular. I am now 87-71 for the season. I have to be honest due this early week I have not even seen the lines yet, in fact I will first predict what I think the line should be, then post my pick with the actual line

Green Bay
Detroit

My guess GB-10. Actual Line GB-11.

Oakland
Dallas

My guess Dallas -14. Actual Line -14.

Giants
Denver

My guess Giants-2. Actual Line NY-7.

Tb
Atlanta

My guess Atlanta -10. Actual Line -12

Miami
Buffalo

My guess Miami -5. Actual Line -3.

Cle
Cin

My guess Cin -9. Actual Line -14

Sea
Stl

My guess Sea -6. Actual Line -3.

Car
NYJ

My guess NYJ-4. Actual Line -3

Was
Phi

My guess Phi -9. Actual Line -9.

Ind
Hou

My guess Ind -8. Actual Line Ind-3.5

KC
SD

My guess SD -14. Actual Line -14.

Jax
SF

My guess SF -3. Actual Line -3.

Chi
Min

My guess Min -9. Actual Line -11.

Ari
Ten

My guess Ari -1. Actual Line -1.

Pit
Bal

My guess Bal -1. Actual Line NoLin.

NE
NO

My guess NO -3. Actual Line -3.

Packers' Season Depends on Lessons Learned

2009-11-19T09:58:00.002-06:00

The Packers won a big game versus Dallas. Another loss at home would have put the Packers in a very tough spot to have any shot at the playoffs. With that win they remain on pace for a wild card spot, got a win against a legit team, and possibly found their identity.

That last part could be the key to the season. The Packers need to manufacture wins. They absolutely have to win with an aggressive defense, smart offense, and field position. This may not be exciting, but with the play of the offensive line the team needs to completely forget about the big passing play down field. This line cannot hold up for long enough to get a pass 30 yards down field. Combine that with the fact I do not think this line can hold up for an entire 10 play drive on a consistent basis and this team needs to know who they are.

They can get into ideal field position and scoring opportunities with their defense. The blitzing style needs to be the staple of the defense on any passing situation. If they can continue to stifle the run, they should be able to blitz when necessary.

The offense needs to come to the realization that they are not the show. They thought they would be, but with that line, they cannot be a consistent high scoring offense. Their goals need to change. Each possession's goal at this point should be to get at least two first downs to always change field position. Once they get to that point, then the big play may be there, but still look to just move the sticks.

The game against SF will show us if the Packers have learned who they are or not. SF has a poorly rated pass defense. So what. The Packers need to focus on the running game and short passing to move the sticks. If they revert back to thinking they are the Air Coryell Chargers of the 70s/80s, then we will know they have learned nothing.

Above all things, the Packers need to learn that winning ugly is still a win. Rodgers is a talented QB, but he needs to use that talent to just move the sticks and not always be looking for a big strike. He did that against Dallas, and if he and the rest of the offense learned anything, the rest of the season could get very interesting. If the team comes out looking deep every play to start the SF game they obviously learned nothing and will be lucky to get to 8 wins.

NFL Picks
The picks are holding steady if not spectacular. I am now 79-63 for the season. That is a little over 55% which is not bad in today's NFL.

Mia
Car -3

Brown being out for the year will hurt Miami and I think Carolina is a team to watch in a wide open NFC. At this point in the NFC, all you need is an identity and that can carry you. The Panthers run the ball, and run it well. Losing Jordan Gross at LT could be their undoing though.

Cle
Det -4

I read that they only expect around 40,000 for this game.

Buf
Jax -9

Jauron was a player's coach so I do not see the team responding well to losing him. Jax can be a sleeper in the second half.

Pit -10
KC

I cannot take KC against Pittsburgh.

Ind -1
Bal

Baltimore needs to get back to being a physical running team. Why in the hell are they passing it so much? Indy gets their first loss here.

Atl
NYG -7

Atlanta is not a huge team and this will be a tough spot against a big, physical, angry Giants team.

SF
GB -7

Green Bay should win, but if they follow the plan I laid out earlier, they will win an ugly game.

Sea
Min -11

Minnesota is better, but I am not sure they will come out ready to play. Last week it was Detroit, this week Seattle. I foresee another flat performance.

Was
Dal -11

I think Washington can make this close.

NO -11
TB

New Orleans is not playing fast break football like they did earlier in the season. They look like a team that could use a loss to release some of the pressure of being undefeated.

Ari -9
Stl

The Rams are still playing hard, but I don't think it will matter.

NYJ
NE -11

I think the Jets are on the verge of sinking the ship, they are taking on a lot of water at this point.

Cin -10
Oak

Since the Raiders are benching Jamarcus the Horrible, I think they can get a cover this week.

SD
Den

This line has not been released yet but either way I am taking the Chargers. Philip Rivers is really in a groove.

Phi -3
Chi

This is a tough game to pick. I am going with Philly for this reason, I think the fans of Chicago so badly want a change in management and coaching that they will be looking for anything to boo at. I do not think the team will respond well to that.

Ten
Hou -4.5

This will be an entertaining game. Chris Johnson is so ridiculously fast and fun to watch. Now that defenses have to respect Vince Youngs scrambling it puts them in poor position to defend Johnson. The Titans will be a tough out for the rest of the year since they are gaining confidence.

Bringing Back the Power Ratings
Favorites: Indy, New England, New Orleans, Minnesota. I don't care about records or whatnot, these are the four favorites at this point.

Contenders: Arizona, Dallas, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, San Diego. These four teams are the next tier, all have the ability to get to the super bowl.

Wild Card Good: Giants, Eagles, Packers, Falcons, Panthers, Dolphins, Ravens, Texans, Denver, Titans. The Titans may have played themselves out of the playoffs with their bad start, but I think they can be a really tough team to play down the stretch.

Not Crappy, Not Good: Jags, 49ers, Jets, Seattle, Chicago, Washington. The Jags, 49ers, and Jets can still make some noise. I think Seattle, Chicago and Washington may be done.

Crap: Cleveland, St Louis, Detroit, Buffalo, Oakland, Kansas City, Tampa Bay. These are all bad teams, worse yet, I am not sure what you can pinpoint to fix these teams. Cleveland has no hope for at least a couple of drafts/off seasons. St Louis needs a lot, a QB, OLine, depth. Buffalo needs a QB and a Line. Oakland needs a QB and most importantly new management, they actually have enough talent on defense to win. KC needs everything, I think Cassel will be a bust, the OLine is bad, the defensive personnel fits very bad into the 3-4. TB may have the QB and a decent OLine so they could make a quick turnaround if they can fill in some pieces on defense. I have no clue on Detroit, I think Stafford can be good but they need a lot.

Packers Last Stand and NFL Picks

2009-11-13T10:14:00.003-06:00

The Packers have exhausted me as a fan. The Favre drama has been a huge cloud all season, but the crappy OLine, sacks, play calling, penalties and special teams have all been much a bigger problem. The Tampa loss was inexcusable. If there was a blueprint in how to lose a game to an outmatched team, the Packers followed it to perfection.

Give up a blocked kick for a TD - Check
Continue to pass, even when running 5 yards/carry and a strong wind - Check
Failing to protect the QB in the second half - Check
Giving back momentum on kick returns - Check
Turnovers - Check

It was horrible. If the Packers would have ran the ball every single play in the game I actually think they could have won. The turnovers and sacks gave the Bucs life.

Anybody who has been TT detractor can get no arguments at this point. His draft picks are 50/50 hit or miss, which is fine if you look for trades or free agency. The fact that he only uses the draft magnifies the misses like Harrel, Brohm, Murphy, Colledge, Hawk, Jackson and Lee. All 1st and 2nd round picks that have failed or been a disappointment.

Here is my quick-fix armchair GM Plan:
1. The Packers should seriously look at bringing in the best interior offensive lineman available in FA, forget tackles in FA since they are overpriced.
2. Play Lang at LT the rest of the season to see if he can do it.
3. Trade a 2nd rounder for a RT. The Eagles got a stud LT in Peters for a 2nd rounder, it can be done.
4. Franchise Kampman, then trade him for a pick or more veteran help or both.
5. Use our 1st round pick on the best available player that fits the 3-4. Whether it is another DLineman or the LB McClain from Alabama. Get another great fit like Mathews.
6. Use the pick we get for Kampman on a play maker. Ideally CJ Spiller from Clemson, but any game breaker with speed. The Packers need a player like Harvin or Desean Jackson. There are a lot of them, Pittsburgh was able to draft Wallace in the 3rd round last year. The Packers need a returner and offensive player that is a threat to go 80 yards, preferably a RB and that is why I mention Spiller.

This game against the Cowboys should indicate how the rest of the season will go. If the Packers get blown out the team has quit on this staff, and the team will win 6 games or less. If the Packers win then they could possibly get to 9 wins, more likely 8. If they lose a close game the rest of the season could go in any direction. The Packers are overrated by themselves and media and fans. The preseason provided a false hope. This team is rebuilding with a couple of veterans sprinkled in to make things look good.

Picks
The week got off to a rough start with the loss last night due to 5 Cutler picks. Three were not his fault as a WR fell, ref got in the way, and a safety badly interfered. The two redzone picks were his fault and inexcusable. My record is 71-57.

Jax
Jets -7

Den -3.5
Was

Cin
Pit -7

Buf
Ten -7

Det
Min -16.5

New Orleans -13.5
Stl

Atl -1.5
Car

TB
Mia -10

KC
Oak -2

Sea
Ari -9

Phi
SD -1.5

Dal -3
GB

NE
Ind -3

Bal -10.5
Cle

Bears-49ers Pick

2009-11-12T12:02:00.002-06:00

Tonight is the start of Thursday night football. I love the NFL, but I actually do not think we need an NFL game on Thursday. Thursday is the one night with great tv shows. "The Office", "It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia", "The League", "30 Rock" and even "Parks and Recreation" all cue up on my DVR. There is plenty to watch on Thursday nights. Here is an idea, move the game to Friday night, and when college football wraps up in early December have a Friday and Saturday night game each week. Just a thought.

Bears
49ers -3.5

For the Bears-49ers the line is moving up to 3.5. The Bears have been blown out twice recently by the Cardinals and Bengals. The blowouts are alarming and it is obvious that bettors are jumping on that. As Lee Corso would say, Not So Fast My Friend. Yes the Bears, like the Packers, are very flawed, but those blowouts were to one sure-fire Hall of Famer in Kurt Warner, and if Carson Palmer can stay healthy for the rest of his career, he will have an argument. I do not want to be captain obvious here, but the 49ers do not have a potential Pro Bowler at QB let alone Hall of Famer. Teams that are that outmatched at QB should not get more than 3 points.

Do the Packers have any Shot at Cowher?

2009-11-09T07:24:00.002-06:00

As you can tell by the title, I have already assumed the coaching staff will be axed. In reality, we are probably stuck with this head coach for at least one full year, likely two before the Packers actually do something about it.

I have been complaining about the coaching since the Cincinnati game and the same problems keep coming up, bad special teams, penalties, sacks, ugh. If those problems are not enough to get a coach fired, then the fact it looks like the players have given up on him should factor in. On the early touchdown to Jones it looked like McCarthy was getting on the WRs for the excessive celebration penalty(which was later picked up) it looked like the receivers were completely ignoring him. The special teams problems are so widespread it is shocking.
They give up big kick returns.
They give up a blocked punt for a TD.
To start the second half, the special teams is the reason the Packers start inside the 10.

That second half kickoff play signifies my issue with what is going on. How can a team come out to start the second half and look so uninterested? This team thinks they are much better than they are and has lost the ability to grind out wins.

I do not think there is a very great chance of the Packers getting Bill Cowher, but at this point that is what they need. Us Packer fans have had enough of the West Coast style in Green Bay. We need a physical style, a coach committed to setting the tone with a physical running game. That running game was the one thing Sherman did have, if he never would have been given the GM title, who knows, but the Packers were a physical running team.

Rumors get started out of thin air, then build momentum, and all of a sudden it is reported on ESPN "Packers looking at Cowher". Like I said, I have little confidence that the Packers will get Cowher, but something needs to happen. And if Cowher were brought in, Capers could be retained as DC since they worked together in Pittsburgh. The fact that the DC would not also have to be bought out could lighten the overall amount of money needed to clean house. McCarthy is so lost at this point that I do not think it is salvageable. Can the Packers get to 7 wins?

Thompson Too
To go along with McCarthy, I think it is best for the Packers to completely clean house. To just get rid of anything associated with the Brett Favre breakup. I don't even care who is right or wrong at this point, this has split a fan base that continues to bitch back and forth. We need an exorcism of the entire mess that happened with Favre.
Target a coach, whether it is Cowher, Shanahan, or even Fischer if he becomes available. Work with them to also get a GM in place. Do not just go get a GM and hope he can get a coach. The Packers need an established coach and at this point to get one that coach will want some say as to who he will be working with. I am OK with that as long as it is that GM in charge of personnel, while Cowher coaches. Cowher got to a super bowl with Neil Odonnel and to AFC Championships with Kordell Stewart. He is my dream choice.

Packer Best Case Scenario for Rest of Season
Here is my best case scenario for the rest of the season. Packers beat the Cowboys, but Rodgers suffers a non serious season ending injury. Something like a bad, high ankle sprain. To go ever further, have Rodgers injury occur on a game winning TD pass. Then he gets shelved for the year because if Rodger actually endures the 70 sacks he is on pace for, he will be shell-shocked and virtually done as an effective QB.
This way, Rodgers could go out on a high note with confidence restored. The team would also display how poor they were setup at the OLine and backup QB spots. That is bad GMing, and if Rodgers did get hurt I think the rumblings would get loud enough from a national perspective that the Packers would have to do something.

Look, I hate this. It was just a couple of years ago that we had to go through this with Sherman. Once Sherman became GM and Head Coach, it signified his end was not too far off. It is too hard to do both and once Thompson was hired as GM, there was no way Sherman was setup to continue success as a head coach. I really think it is best to clean house, put the Favre mess behind our entire fan base, and find a coach that will instill a physical identity.

NFL Picks Week 9

2009-11-06T12:29:00.002-06:00

I am so glad the Favre drama is over for the year. The Vikings are a better team than the Packers, and with Favre they are much better. Both games were blowouts before the Packers could do anything on offense. After the first game I was willing to say it was a bad bounce here, bad call there that put the Packers behind. After the second game it is just obvious that the Vikings are better than the Packers in every aspect of football. If it wasn't for that fluky squib kick, the game would have stayed a blowout. We will see if Favre can hold up down the stretch, but it will not matter if these teams meet again or not. The Packers do not even try to run the ball, they have a flawed pass protection scheme, and a qb that plays his best when the team is down multiple scores. I still do not blame many of the sacks on Rodgers. A couple were on him on Sunday, but what about all the sacks he avoids because of a broken tackle, or being elusive. The fact that he was the leading rusher, by far, on Sunday speaks to the major issue.

Onto the Picks
My college picks are 26-23 for the year, NFL picks are 62-52, 13-7 on my fav picks.

I like no college games. This is what this shitty system gives us. If all of these teams with one or two losses were still fighting for an 8 or 16 team playoff spot, this weekend could still be great. It would add great importance to the Penn State-Ohio State game, and so many other teams would still have something to shoot for. I think Alabama will win against LSU but I do not like the line at 7.5 either way. Oregon could be in trouble against Stanford, but I think they will hold on.

KC
Jax -6.5

Bal -3
Cin

Hou
Ind -9

Was
Atl -10

GB -10
TB

Ari
Chi -3

Mia
NE -10.5

Car
NO -13

Det
Sea -10

Ten
SF -4

SD
NYG -5

Dal
Phi -3

Pit -3
Den

NFL Picks Week 8

2009-10-30T10:05:00.002-05:00

Last week I scraped by on a 7-5 record and 2-2 on Fav Five picks, running my yearly ATS record to 55-46, 13-7.

The college picks are now at 24-23 after a horrible 1-6 week. This is the real tough part of the season for college betting as we do not know how certain teams react when they fall completely out of national title and conference races.

College Picks

Texas -9.5
Oklahoma State

Texas. Oklahoma State will miss Dez Bryant too much. Programs like USC, Texas and Florida can lose a star player and still be great. Programs on the next tier like Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Penn State and Oregon cannot lose a standout like Bryant.

USC -3
Oregon

Oregon. Oregon is playing as well as anyone in the country now. They should be favored in this game.

NFL Picks

Denver
Balt -3.5

Baltimore. Denver is a good story, but Baltimore is much more physical than San Diego, New England and Dallas.

Cleveland
Chi -13

Chicago. I cannot take Cleveland.

Houston -3
Buffalo

Buffalo. I want to like Houston, but right when I start to trust them again, they lay a stinker. Here is another stinker.

SF
Indy -12.5

SF. This line seems a little high and I hate betting against Peyton. At some point these favorites have to lose against some of these lines.

Miami
NYJ -3

Miami. How is NY going to stop the Miami running game w/o Kris Jenkins in the middele?

Stl
Detroit -4.5

Detroit. How much would you have to be paid to watch this game and this game only. 3 straight hours, no channel flipping. I would not even start listening until the bid got up to $250. I value my weekends too much to watch this crapfest.

Seattle
Dallas -9.5

Seattle. There are several things that scare me about this game for Dallas.
1. Everybody thinks Dallas is great again after the Atlanta win.
2. The line opened at 9.5, almost all money is on Dallas, and Vegas is not moving it. They are daring people to take Dallas.

NYG
Philly

Giants. I was thinking Philly, but this is another game that has had all the money on one team, the Giants, yet vegas has moved this line a couple of points. I do not trust Philly, take out the big plays by Jackson last week and Washington was better. I know you cannot take away plays, but I do not trust a team where in a two week stretch they were outplayed by two of the worst teams in the league, Washington and Oakland, all but two plays.

Oak
SD -16.5

Oak. I have no idea. 16.5 seems like a lot of point.

Jax
Ten -3

Titans. They are due, at least that is what I have been telling myself all year.

Min
GB -3

Green Bay. The Packers will roll, this game could get ugly as there are a lot of things that line up well for the Pack.
1. Revenge from the first game.
2. The Packers are rested after a bye and then games against the Browns and Lions.
3. The Vikings are beat up, Packers, Ravens, then Steelers.
4. The Packers will not call off the dogs if they do get a lead.

Car
Ari -10

Arizona. I do not trust the Cardinals but at the same time there seems like a lot wrong with the Panthers right now.

Atl
NO -10

Falcons. Atlanta will find a way to stay close in a divisional game and the Saints will get a lot of closer games until they finally lose.

NFL Picks Week 7

2009-10-23T11:16:00.003-05:00

I didn't love the slate last week and it showed in my picks, 6-8. I only picked 1 for my fav five due to how little faith I had in the games. Season record, 48-41, Fav Fiv 11-5.

My very Official Ratings Groupings:

Favorites
Giants, Saints, Colts, Patriots

Contenders
Ravens, Steelers, Eagles, Falcons, Vikings

Good, but How Good?
Jets, Packers, Chargers, Cowboys, 49ers, Bengals, Broncos, Miami, Bears

Crap
Washington, Carolina, Arizona, Seattle, Lions, Buffalo, Houston, Jax, Tennessee

God Awful
Rams, Chiefs, Raiders, Tampa Bay, Cleveland

We are getting close to the point where I may need to break apart the Good, but How Good group into Good and Good But not that Good. I think the 49ers, Chargers, and Cowboys will fit into the Good But not that Good category. I'll wait a week.

It also might not be too far off before I need to put Washington into God Awful, and after losing 59-0, Tennessee wants in that group as well.

The Chiefs have a chance to raise into crap. Makes that Charger game much more watchable this weekend, doesn't it.

Random Team Thoughts

1. If the Cowboys lose to Atlanta at home, after a bye, they are done.
2. If the Chargers lose at KC, they are done.
3. I have no idea how the Giant-Cardinals game will play out, if Arizona wins, both teams will be on the move in the groupings.
4. I don't know if the Eagles laid an egg or are not that good. They seem to have a stinker every year so we'll wait a week.
5. The winner of the Viking-Steeler game will move into contender status. Very exciting for both.

The Picks

San Diego -5
Kansas City

Chargers. Weird line, not sure if it should be more or less. Since I do not think KC will win, I will go with Rivers and the hope he has a big game.

Indianapolis -13
St Louis

Colts. This is coming off a bye, Manning is too good to allow this team to be flat on offense.

Green Bay -9
Cleveland

Cleveland. I have so little faith in the GB coaching that I could easily see a letdown here. If they are as badly coached as I think they are, then a letdown is really possible. A couple things do work against the letdown: Half of the Browns roster has Swine Flu, Derek Anderson is QB. I think it is the Packers destiny to beat on the bad teams and disappoint against contenders. If the Browns can hang within 13 of Pittsburgh, they can hang within nine with the Packers.

Minnesota
Pittsburgh -4

Pittsburgh. First road game where Minnesota will have to play a legit team. They were @Detroit, @Cleveland, @St Louis, we will see how they handle a good team on the road.

New England -14.5
Tampa Bay

New England. The Pats are not shy towards blowouts, they get one here.

San Francisco
Houston -3

Houston. Both of these teams are tough to gauge, I'll give the home team three. I expect this number to hit right on the three for the push. One reason I am going with Houston is this, I think Houston could blow out SF, I do not think SF can blow out Houston. SF does not have enough offense to blow good teams out.

NY Jets -6
Oakland

Oakland. Oakland is actually not a good team to face with if your qb has lost some confidence. Oakland plays so much man coverage that if you are not on time with the throw, their fast corners will cut it off and get the pick.

Buffalo
Carolina -7

Buffalo. Neither of these teams deserves a touchdown.

Chicago
Cincinnati -1.5

Bengals. Cedric Benson gets some revenge.

New Orleans -6
Miami

Dolphins. I like the Dolphins with Henne. Very physical team and now have the ability to stretch the field. I like coaching staffs that will do whatever they can to squeeze out a win, and the Dolphins do that. Teams like this struggle in the playoffs, but are very solid in the regular season.

Atlanta
Dallas -4

Falcons. How can Dallas be getting four points here? Atlanta is better!

Arizona
NY Giants -7

Giants. This will be a game that makes us wonder how Arizona made the super bowl last year. This will be ugly.

Philadelphia -7
Washington

Eagles. No way I would bet on the Redskins.

Fav Five, well I like four, we need the byes to end.
1. Indy
2. Atlanta
3. Giants
4. Eagles

College Football Picks Week 8

2009-10-23T09:45:00.003-05:00

Another winning week ATS last week, 4-1. I have scraped to 23-17 on the year after a very poor start.

It seems quite clear that the best teams are Florida, Alabama, USC and Texas. I do not think there is any team outside of Oklahoma that is very close to those four teams and Oklahoma is now out of it. It is hard for me to not think that Oklahoma is getting the same treatment from the football gods that New England got last year with the Brady injury. If you EXCESSIVELY blow teams out, you will eventually pay. Oklahoma has lost three games that Bradford either didn't play, or didn't play in the second half. You can blow teams out, but there comes a point where you have to call off the dogs. During New England's undefeated REGULAR season, they continually ran up the score well into the 4th quarter with leads over four scores. Oklahoma has been running the scores up beyond 50 point wins for several years. The football gods noticed.

I am not in love with the college slate this week. We could end up with some very compelling games, but we need some dogs to play up to their competition. One thing in our favor, every contender must have some close calls against teams they are better than. Florida had theirs against Arkansas. Alabama and Texas will get theirs, maybe this week.

Oregon -10
Washington

Washington. This will be a tough game, if Oregon is not ready, they will lose.

Iowa
Mich St

Mich St. I might pick against Iowa the rest of the year until they lose. The last time a BAD team made the national title game was in 2001 when Miami destroyed an overmatched Nebraska team that had no business in the title game. Iowa will find a way to lose at least one.

Side note: It does Iowa or any of these lesser teams no good to get to a title game or upper-tier bowl game only to get crushed. Ohio State was an underdog one year to Miami, but that Buckeye team had NFL talent at every level/position of the team, their style just made them seem worse than they were. Nebraska did not belong in the game versus Miami, and their program has not rebounded. Illinois has not rebounded from that loss to USC in the Rose Bowl. It is great for teams to get into high-profile games, IF YOU BELONG.

Auburn
LSU -7.5

Auburn. This is a fierce rivalry and Auburn has a better offense.

Texas -13
Missouri

Missouri. I just do not trust the Texas offense.

Tennessee
Alabama -15

Alabama. Bama HATES Tennessee. This has always been a fierce rivalry, but a few years ago when Tennessee blew the whistle on Bama recruiting violations, that spilled blood. Hell, people in Bama are STILL not over the Cival War, do you think they have recovered from something that happened only a few years ago?

Clemson
Miami -4.5

Miami. The ACC really needs Miami to become a dominate team.

Oregon State
USC -21

Oregon State. USC is so bad at these games coming off a big win, hopefully they can prevent an upset.

Good Coaching -75
Bret Bielema

Good Coaching. Bielema will find a way to give into good coaching even during the bye week. He is in so far over his head it is a shame so few of the Madison Liberal Blind Supportors cannot see it. Everyone that lives outside of Madison can see he is not the answer. Everything I read from Madison will support him to the death. Good grief, do not take it personal, HE SUCKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Why is 2010 a Deep NFL Draft?

2009-10-22T10:52:00.003-05:00

I keep hearing how the 2010 draft will be a deep draft, how do we know? The experts usually say it takes three years to determine how good a draft was so how in the hell can that be determined six months BEFORE the draft.

I looked back and I would bet that it was thought that the 2006 draft was a loaded draft. I wonder if it just comes down to a lot of name players coming out? I am wary of hearing "This is a loaded draft", according to what?

Here are some guys from that 2006 draft that have been a bust: Bush, Young, Hawk, Davis, Huff, Sims, Leinhart, Wimbley, Bunkley, Hill, Carpenter, Maroney, Lawson, McCargo and Lewis. Half of the first round was a complete bust, yet many of those players were known all year and were considered locks to be future starters/pro bowlers and beyond.

I just worry that this is another NAME draft, and that is why certain reporters label it as a good draft.

Look at some of these names:
QB: Bradford, McCoy, Tebow, Locker, Clausen
WR: Bryant, Benn
RB: Best, Spiller, McKnight

That is just some skill positional guys. Another thing I see, is it looks like a lot of the guys that were suppose to be really good coming out of high school have held form and could be coming out. Eric Berry, Taylor Mays and others.

I am not saying this isn't a great draft, I just wonder how non-NFL personnel people determine that. A deep draft to me is having enough guys with 2nd and 3rd round guys lasting deep into the 4th and 5th round. If you have 90-100 guys with a 2nd round or better grade, and/or 150 guys with a 3rd round or better grade, that is a deep draft. I wish they would explain why they think it is a deep draft.

DT looks really deep. The Packers should look at getting one in the first two rounds to add quality depth to the DE or NT position. 6 with a 1st round grade.

OT looks ok, but I am unsure. A couple of the top OTs are hurt this year and those are the only two with a 1st round grade. That position will get over-drafted this year. If the Packers are to improve they will be better off with a FA.

C/G looks bad. There is a couple guards with mid 2nd, but that is it. The rest in low 3rd and below.

QB has really high scores, 4 1st round scores. I disagree completely with that as I do not like McCoy or Bradford in the pros. It also gives Tebow a 2nd round score and he has NO CHANCE IN HELL OF BEING A PRO QB.

Quick Sidenote:

Trent Dilfer gave a great explanation on why these Spread qbs are so risky, they only play in shotgun. He explained how they are coached, "Pick and Stick" is how is described it. He hates the fact they never go under center and go through a progression read, which you need to do in the NFL. They get the ball in Shotgun, drop back to 10 yards, and Pick n Stick based on a pre-snap direction from the coaches.

Whereas he think Clausen has a very good chance at success in the NFL because he is accustomed to being undercenter and therefore going through a progression read.

I think Rodgers was a mix of both, he did some undercenter but I do not think Tedford has a lot of progressional reads. There may be some, but not a lot. But, I may be wrong.

Here is my really quick analysis of the draft by position:

Offensive Line: This is not a good year to fix your line through the draft. At least at this point.

QB: Actually a quality year, but the top guys are overrated. If I could, I would use a pick in advance on Matt Barkeley for USC. He will start 3 years when he is already a Junior and will have spent those three years in a pro-style offense.

RB: Not sure if there are great all-around backs emerging yet. It seems there are either scatbacks: Best, Spiller, McKnight. Or power backs: Dwyer, Scott.

WR: There is a lot of size, but I have reservations regarding the taller guys going too early. Maybe this is due to the Lions or whatever, but these WRs over 6'2" that get drafted early seem to pan out much less than the really fast guys. I would take Harvin, Jackson and Macklin over some of the taller WRs that have come out.
I think the issue is the CBs have gotten just a smidge taller; most starting corners are over 5'10", and this allows the corners to have a fighting chance at the jump balls. This allows the CBs to jam the WR at the LOS and the taller guys are having trouble getting off the LOS. Calvin Johnson is the exception, but he is one of the fastest WRs to come out to go along with that height.

DLine: Defensive Tackle looks loaded. There also seems to be more of the prototypical 4-3 defensive end. The last few years there have been so many tweeners, I think there are more guys that can play both the run and pass, Dunlop and Griffith are two that come to mind.

LB: There are a lot of OLB with high grades, but without height. The 3-4 wants guys 6'2" and above for the OLB, only two of the top 10 fit that. MLB looks very good this year at the top with two first rounders, McClain and Spikes. McClain is an interesting prospect since he is running Saban's complex defense at Alabama, that will raise his value with 3-4 teams.

CB: Back to what I said earlier regarding the height of these CBs, of the 11 graded CBs, 8 are over 5'10", and two of the CBs that are not are returners as well as corners.

Safety: Eric Berry is great, and should be drafted in the top 10. Taylor Mays is too big, stiff, and looks slow. From what I have seen this year he is very over-rated.

It looks like a good year to bolster the Dline, LB and CB positions on defense, but on offense it looks like it could be risky reaching for OTs. There are quality OTs according to the grades, but they really should be taken in the 2nd which I doubt they last until. The interior OLineman prospects do not look great, the RBs look one-dimensional, and I have my doubts regarding the WRs.

Packers - Worst Coached Team in NFL

2009-10-19T12:14:00.002-05:00

I am fed up. I was at the Detroit game yesterday, the most boring game I have ever seen. I am done with this offensive coaching staff. Fire them all, bring in a new head coach. Same problems, over and over, that never get fixed. I just hope a new staff could retain the D staff, but that is very unlikely. Bring in Jeff Fischer. Give that quality of coach an actual QB, and go from there.

5 sacks

13 penalties for 130 yards.

No running game

I am done with McCarthy. The penalties and pass protection are horrendous. It is on him. There is still no running game whatsoever. And that is McCarthy's fault. CALL A FUCKING RUN, FIRST AND GOAL AT THE 2, PASS, PASS, UGH. He has no committment to the run, and never will.

The fact that the Packers could dominate an NFL team, yet look that bad, proves there is legit talent on this team. Therefore, I do not feel Thompson should be on the chopping block, yet. Give him one more coach. A coach that will develop a running game, and let them two work together to build a line.

You do not need a Quarterback coach as your head coach. Hire a QB coach!

I am absolutely shocked the sacks and penalties were that prevelant against as inferior opponent, AFTER A BYE! If those problems are not fixed in that game, then when?

The Packers will win enough games to keep this staff around, and that is unfortunate. The Packers cannot win in the NFC North, in the Wisconsin weather, with Mike McCarthy as head coach. He CANNOT even get close to a 50/50 run/pass split which you need in this division.

He CANNOT!
He WILL NOT!

And the Packers WILL NOT reach their full potential with this current staff. Way to sloppy and no accountability.