The weather pattern responsible for bringing frigid air to Europe, like this heavy snow fall on the Colosseum in Rome, is driven in part by a naturally-occurring pattern known as the Arctic Oscillation.

While the U.S. cruises through winter with a snow drought and above-average temperatures, much of Europe and Eurasia are locked in the grips of a deadly cold air outbreak, with more than 300 people reported dead so far. According to news reports, entire communities in Italy, Bosnia, and Romania have become inaccessible due to heavy snowfall and power outages. According to Sky News, a dam in Bulgaria burst due to the combination of snowmelt and heavy rains, killing four people in a village downstream, and other dams in Southeastern Europe are also being threatened. Bosnia, Serbia, Macedonia and Turkey are at risk for heavy snows during the next few days. 

According to U.S. News and World Report, the wintry blitz presents a poorly-timed challenge to European economies, which already are struggling to contain a debt crisis: 

“In more robust economic times, the economic effects of bad weather might be nothing more than bump in the road, but in a place already teetering on the brink of recession, the stakes are higher.”

“[E]ven relatively limited disruption from snow and freezing conditions could very well be enough to tip the balance towards the economy suffering further contraction in the first quarter of this year, which would put it officially back into recession,” writes Howard Archer, chief European and UK economist of IHS Global Insight, in a commentary on the cold snap.

According to Bloomberg News, 93 stations from the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute reported the lowest-ever temperatures for February 5, with one station bottoming out near -38°F. In Ukraine, the cold has killed at least 131 people, and nearly 2,000 were hospitalized due to hypothermia

Ice has forced Austria to close the Danube river to navigation, shutting down access to part of the second-longest river in Europe. In addition, the iconic canals of Venice were reported to be frozen as well.

What’s Going On?

The departures from average of the height of the 500 mb pressure surface from Jan. 28 to Feb. 3, 2012. The red colors near Norway indicate unusually warm air at the mid-levels of the atmosphere (high heights). Dark blue shading across Europe and Eurasia shows telltale signs of colder than average conditions (low heights). Credit: NOAA/ESRL.

The weather pattern responsible for bringing the frigid air to Europe and Eurasia, and locking it in place, is being driven in part by a naturally-occurring pattern of climate variability known as the Arctic Oscillation. Depending on whether it’s in a “positive” or “negative” phase, the Arctic Oscillation can bring warmer or cooler than average wintertime conditions to the U.S. and Europe.

Right now the Arctic Oscillation is in a negative phase, which tends to favor colder than average weather in Europe and the U.S. Scientists don’t fully understand what causes the Arctic Oscillation to switch from one phase to the other, which limits their ability to forecast these changes ahead of time beyond a week in advance.

Stu Ostro, a senior meteorologist at The Weather Channel who has been keeping close tabs on trends in weather and climate extremes in recent years, said the frigid weather in Europe is another in a series of weird winters that have been related to the Arctic Oscillation.

“It’s interesting that the winter started out the opposite of the previous two, with an exceptionally positive Arctic Oscillation and non-blocking pattern, and then it flipped,” he said via email.

Map showing sea level pressure departures from average during the last week in January through early February. The bright red area over Russia and parts of Europe indicate the presence of an unusually strong high pressure area. Credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Map showing surface wind departures from average during the same period. The circle and arrows show how the frigid air from Russia has flowed westward, into much of Europe. Credit: NOAA/ESRL.

“There has been extreme variability of the Arctic Oscillation in recent years, including a record negative monthly value for December in 2009 (the month of the so-called “Snowpocalypse” in the northeast U.S.), a record negative for any month in February 2010 (“Snowmageddon”), and a record positive one for April in 2011 (coinciding with the extraordinary number of tornadoes in the U.S. that month),” Ostro said. “And this has been occurring in the context of the precipitous decline of Arctic sea ice volume.”

Also noteworthy is a very strong and persistent high pressure area that has been sprawled across Russia. The airflow around this stubborn high has been transporting Siberian air into Western Europe, as the maps below show.

As Ostro alluded to, in recent years there have been studies examining how the global warming-related loss of Arctic sea ice might affect winter weather patterns in the northern hemisphere. Some of this research shows that sea ice loss may favor winters with predominately negative phases of the Arctic Oscillation. One potential result of global warming, referred to as the “Arctic Paradox,” is that sea ice loss can help warm the Arctic during the winter, while setting in motion a chain reaction of events that make winters colder than they otherwise would be in Europe and the U.S.. 

The weather pattern during the past two weeks bears some similarities to conditions last December, when the Arctic Oscillation was in an extremely negative phase, and the jet stream helped drive frigid air and winter storms into both Europe and the U.S. This year, though, only Europe and Eurasia have been unusually cold, as other factors have conspired to protect the Lower 48 from Old Man Winter’s wrath. At least for now, anyway, as there are signs this may change during the next few weeks.

Figure 1. The scene in Tripoli, Libya, on February 6, 2012, after a rare snowstorm. Image credit: libyall.com.

Unusual jet stream kink causing Europe’s harsh winter weather
The reason for the exceptionally cold and snowy winter weather in Europe lies in the behavior of the jet stream. The jet stream–the band of strong west-to-east blowing upper-level winds that circles the globe at mid-latitudes–acts as the dividing line between cold, polar air to the north, and warmer subtropical air to the south. On average, the jet blows straight west to east. But this winter, the jet has had a highly convoluted shape, with unusually large excursions to the north and south. When the jet bulges southwards, it allows cold air to spill in behind it, and that is what has happened to Europe over the past two weeks. The jet often gets “stuck” in one of these highly convoluted shapes, allowing a persistent period of extreme weather to occur. The latest predictions from the GFS and ECMWF models show the unusual jet stream pattern over Europe persisting for at least another week.

Figure 2. The jet stream pattern over Europe shows that the jet is taking a major dive southwards across France and into North Africa, keeping almost all of Europe on the cold (north) side of the jet.

The AO and NAO
A good measure of the tendency of the jet to form major bulges in winter is the Arctic Oscillation (AO) Index, which has ranged between -1 and -3 over the past two weeks. A strongly negative AO Index like this means the winds of the jet are relatively weak, allowing it to sag southwards over Europe and allow cold air to plunge southwards behind it. Usually, a negative AO also means cold winter weather over North America, but not this winter. In North America, we’re better off paying attention to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index, which we can think of as the Northern Atlantic portion of the AO. Ordinarily, the AO and NAO are in phase during winter (about 80 – 90% of the time), meaning that Europe and North America experience similar winter weather. However, over the past two weeks, the NAO has been positive while the AO has been negative. The positive NAO means that jet stream winds have been strong over North America and the North Atlantic, keeping cold air bottled up to the north over Canada and the Arctic. This pattern is predicted to persist for at least another week.

Jeff Masters

Thessaloniki, Greece – A swollen river in Greece bursts its banks, flooding homes and forcing authorities to declare a state of emergency on Tuesday, officials said.

In Poland, meanwhile, the big freeze that is holding the rest of Europe in its icy grip killed another six people in the last 24 hours, the Interior Ministry said in a statement.

Ministry spokeswoman Malgorzata Wozniak said …

While much of the U.S. has had a mild winter this year, record cold and snow are being blamed for more than a hundred deaths in Europe. According to the Associated Press, snow has fallen as far south as the Adriatic Sea, and the Black Sea has frozen along the Romanian coast. In Ukraine, temperatures dipped to the -20s°F, killing more than 40 people, many of them homeless, and hospitalizing hundreds more with hypothermia. Here, a woman braves a blizzard in Skopje, the capital of Macedonia.

Credit: EPA

Snow over Algeria in 2005. Winter weather descended on Northern Africa on January 26 and 27, 2005, leaving parts of Algeria and Morroco white with snow. Courtesy: NASA.

Date / time: 07/02/2012 13:24:24 [UTC]
Event: Snow Storm
Area: Africa
Country: Algeria
State/County: Statewide
Location: [48 departments]
Number of Dead: 25 person(s)

Description:

A cold snap sweeping large parts of Europe has also exacted a heavy toll in Algeria, where 25 people have died in accidents linked to heavy snowstorms, the fire and rescue services announced Tuesday. Twenty-eight of Algeria's 48 departments have had snow over the past week, including the capital Algiers. The snow has cut off access to many parts of the mountainous Kabylie region in the north, where a number of villages have been without power and water since the weekend. The rescue service said 10 people had died in traffic accidents linked to the bad weather and 15 had died of carbon monoxide poisoning caused by faulty gas heaters. Unused to snow, the authorities have struggled to cope. Colonel Mohamed Khelaf, director of the rescue effort, told Chaine III national radio that 40,000 troops had been deployed to clear roads, help the sick and bring supplies, including gas bottles, to remote areas. Further heavy snowfall was expected in the east and the centre of the country Tuesday and Wednesday.

Event updates:
Situation Update No. 1 on 07.02.2012 at 13:26:09.

By Amantha Perera

KAPARATOTTA, Sri Lanka (AlertNet) – When they headed out into shallow waters that evening, the fishermen of the small village of Kaparatotta didn’t notice anything to cause alarm. The sky was a little cloudy, and the sea its usual boisterous self – not safe for a swim, yet nothing seasoned fishermen couldn’t handle.

But around 9 pm on Nov. 25, 2011, the ocean suddenly turned vicious. Within a few minutes, the small wooden boats with outboard engines, trolling just 1 to2 kilometers from shore, were being battered by waves as high as 25 feet.

Despite years having passed since the 2004 Asian tsunami that wracked Sri Lanka’s coast, and a government mandate to improve early warning systems in the country, the fishermen had no warning of the approaching storm.

“I have never seen anything like that, ever in my life,” said fisherman Thushara Jayaweera. “Those kind of waves don’t break mid-sea usually, but we were being tossed up like rag dolls.”

The several crew members on his boat tried to sail towards the shore, but the waves were too high and rough for them to make progress. Thinking they had met their fate, they turned back towards deeper waters – a decision that saved their lives.

Closer to the shore, Lamahevage Chandana tried to manoeuvre his small vessel through a huge wave.

“The moment we got over (it), the boat was flipped up and dropped down. It split in two like a matchstick,” he recalled.

He grabbed hold of an old buoy tied to one of the masts. He and his father-in-law survived in the swelling sea for over seven hours by hanging on to the buoy.

“We could see the shore all the time, but the sea was so rough no one could get to us. We prayed and waited,” he said.

Those on shore watched helplessly as their relatives and friends were thrown around at the mercy of the rough ocean. Sometimes when the wind died down, they could hear faint cries for help.

“You can’t describe it in words – it was a tragedy. Families were standing where we are today and watching their loved ones struggle,” said Thakshila Damayanthi, a young woman who is also an elected member of the local urban council.

By the next day, 14 fishermen were dead; 11 of their bodies were never recovered. Along Sri Lanka’s southern coast, a total of 29 people died and over 10,000 buildings were damaged by the winds, which weather specialists attributed to a sudden temperature rise.

Experts say a mass of hot air rose quickly north of Kaparatotta, causing cold air from the south to gust northwest – a weather phenomena that seems to have become more common in recent years.

WAKE-UP CALL

Fishing communities are increasingly convinced that disasters like this could be prevented with simple warning techniques, such as text message alerts.

“There has been so much talk about early warning since the tsunami, but when it is really needed, we get nothing,” Damayanthi said.

The tsunami was a wakeup call on the need for the introduction of early warning mechanisms in Sri Lanka, according to Mudalihamige Rathnayake, head of the geography department at Ruhunu University, close to Kaparatotta.

“Before that, there was no concept of early warning or disaster mitigation,” he said.

Several months after the tsunami, in May 2005, Sri Lanka passed the Disaster Management Act, which established the Disaster Management Centre (DMC), the first national body set up to oversee disaster mitigation and relief efforts. One of the center’s mandates was to monitor and issue early warnings.

Rathnayake told AlertNet that, in the past few years, Sri Lanka has experienced increasingly extreme weather, which appear to be linked with climate change and which is making early warning much more important.

“We have seen the trend of an increase in disastrous weather events,” he said.

Since June 2009, the South Asian island nation has dealt with four large floods, affecting over 2 million people. Early last year, eastern regions received a year’s worth of rain in just one month, heavily damaging the vital rice crop.

Instances of very strong winds have also increased due to sharp temperature increases, which cause hot air to rise, pulling in colder air that brings gusts over a concentrated area, according to Rathnayake.

UN HIGHLIGHTS WEAKNESSES

Yet, despite the growing need to be prepared for disasters, a U.N. assessment – ironically released the same week as the Kaparatotta disaster – found that Sri Lanka’s warning systems still need much improvement.

The report highlighted a lack of coordination between the various government organisations tasked with monitoring and providing information to the country’s Disaster Management Centre.

“It is critical to the efficiency of the process that scenario development, early warning and related actions should not be considered in isolation but as an integrated process,” it said.

At least one government body – the National Aquatic Research and Resource Development Agency (NARA), which operates under the fisheries ministry – had knowledge of the sudden build-up of winds last November. Fisheries and Aquatic Resources Minister Rajitha Senaratne told parliament in the weeks after the storm that NARA had sent a warning to both the DMC and the meteorological department.

But DMC spokesperson Pradeep Kodipplili told AlertNet the centre “never got any official warning of any sort”.

NO BACK-UP BATTERY

Lack of preparedness was also evident on the ground. Damayanthi found that the local radio transmission station did not have a working back-up battery for its communications equipment when the power supply was disrupted by the high winds in Kaparatotta.

“You and I talk of early warning, but these guys had forgotten to charge the battery – that was what we were faced with that day,” she said.

The blame for not alerting the DMC has largely fallen on the meteorological department. But the U.N. assessment revealed the meteorological department also lacks the tools to accurately track developing weather patterns like the November storm.

“The Department of Meteorology of Sri Lanka does not have the capacity required to provide quantitative rain forecasts. Models currently used are assessed by the department as not fully reliable, and the information issued by the department is not detailed,” said the report. The department’s radar equipment is now being upgraded.

Ruhunu University’s Rathnayake also noted that the general public has not been educated about how to respond to warnings.

“We need to build awareness on how to react to cyclones, floods or even droughts. Different disasters require different approaches,” he said.

Rathnayake’s research in the south has found that the tsunami’s vast devastation has created a basic level of home-grown savvy.

“People know that if a tsunami is coming you need to run away from the shore. But beyond that they know very little,” he said.

At least some of the damage caused by floods in recent years could have been avoided if proper warnings had been issued, he added.

On the shores of Kaparatotta, there is little optimism this will start happening any time soon.

“The tsunami was the signal for us to take natural disasters seriously, but we haven’t,” said council member Damayanthi. “I don’t think a small tragedy like (ours) will change anything.”

To see a video version of this story, please click here.

Amantha Perera is a freelance writer based in Sri Lanka. This story is part of a series supported by the Climate and Development Knowledge Network.

Read more: Co2, Co2 Emissions, Reduce Carbon Footprint, Carbon Emissions, Climate Change, Carbon Bubble, Carbon Footprint, Climate Change Deniers, Climate Change Denial, Extreme Weather, Green News

This morning many of us woke to find the same weather pattern of the past few days: high pressure inland, low pressure offshore, a strong pressure gradient over the region (particularly near the Cascade crest), and general easterlies over the region (see graphic)

The profiler at Seattle showed the easterly flow quite clearly over the day:

Light winds near the surface, but screaming easterlies of 20-30 knots a thousand feet above the surface (height is y axis, x axis is time increasing to the left, time in GMT).  Temperature is also shown on these figures.  You see the large change of temperatures with height early in the period?…that is the inversion!  I made a plot the same temperature data with height :

Plotted are the seven vertical soundings beginning 4 AM (12 GMT) and ending 10 AM this morning (18 GMT-black color).   Big inversion in the early AM (temps warm by roughly 6 C in the bottom 200 meters).  The inversion weakens as the ground warms.

Inversions develop overnight as the ground emits infrared radiation to space…cooling the ground more than the air above.  Inversions are very stable—meaning they work against vertical mixing.  So we have a battle going on–easterlies moving down the mountains, trying to scour out the cool air versus stable air not wanting to be moved out of the way.  Sort of like an easterly Godzilla versus Inversion King Kong.

Easterly Godzilla versus Inversion King Kong

During the day, where there are no clouds or fog, solar radiation heats the surface and weakens or destroys the inversion.  Surface heating can promote convective mixing that helps bring down the easterlies and warm air above:  Godzilla wins.

This morning at 6 AM, before the sun rose, here were the weather conditions at the surface:

Huge differences in temperature and winds.  At locations over the western foothills, where the easterlies reached the surface, even at night–temperatures were in the mid to upper 40s.  In locations sheltered from the wind, there were calm conditions and temps were in the low to mid 20s, with frost and freezing fog.  Yes, 20-30F differences in temps at 6 AM, with some stations within a few miles of each other experiencing radically different weather.  You gotta love living here.

During the day, with solar heating destroying the inversion, conditions were more uniform.  Here are the conditions at 2 PM:  temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to LOWER 60s.  Yes, these temperatures are more typical of April than February.  You notice a lot more easterlies on this map?…that is because they were able to mix down to surface with the solar heating during the day.

During the summer, the sun is strong enough to destroy any inversions quickly.  Midwinter, particularly December and early January, the inversions often win.  Tuesday will be another fine day.  But Wednesday will see some degradation–chance of light showers and cooler temps.

Despite a severe thunderstorm warning today covering parts of inland Queensland and northern inland of New South Wales, heavy rainfall should be isolated and fall further east of the main affected areas. In Qld the areas south of Rockhampton to Goondiwindi through to the eastern parts of the ranges can expect further showers and storms tomorrow but falls after that will become mostly light. Accumulated falls are expected to approach 40 to 50mm with isolated heavier falls.

The same trough triggering the thunderstorms and showers in Qld will trigger similar activity …

Some rain is gracing the Golden State today, which is experiencing abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions.

With storms a rarity this winter, a system paralleling the coast is bringing a rainy day to coastal and some inland areas of California.

A few tenths of an inch of rain are in store for most of northern and central California with amounts dwindling farther south. However, a soaking will reach as far south as San Diego and into Baja California, Mexico, as the day progresses.

A bit of rain will fall over the San Joaquin Valley into the evening.

Most desert areas will barely have enough to dampen the ground, but there can be a few exceptions.

As with most rain in California, and especially since it is so infrequent this year, motorists should allow extra stopping distance and use caution when cornering at intersections. Enough rain will fall to cause isolated incidents of urban flooding.

Since the storm is moving southeastward, rather than pushing substantially inland, the Sierra Nevada will more or less constitute the eastward extent of the precipitation with up to a few inches of snow over some of the southwest facing ridges. There may be enough snow to make for slushy spots over Donner Pass.

The rain will end from northwest to southeast across California during the afternoon and evening hours. The rain should taper to spotty showers during the evening rush around San Francisco and Sacramento but will continue through the evening rush in Los Angeles and San Diego.

The storm will grow stronger and will unload more substantial rain and mountain snow over central Mexico during the end of the week.

Men shoveling snow from a street in Sarajevo. Record snowfall has paralyzed transportation in the Bosnian capital, where a state of emergency has now been declared. Photo by Sulejman Omerbasic, copyright © Demotix (5/02/12).

Serbia’s national television network, RTS, and other media reported on Friday that a state of emergency has been declared by the government, while citizens have been reporting critical situations throughout the country and that municipal services have been doing a poor job of tackling the snowfall in many urban areas.

In an article titled “Serbia Blocked by Snow, State of Emergency in 27 Municipalities, Recommendation to Call Off School Attendance” [sr], the Head of the State of Emergency Sector of the Serbian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Predrag Maric, is reported to have stated on Friday:

27 municipalities in Serbia have declared a state of emergency due to heavy snowfall. Maric has told Beta news agency that the most difficult situations are in Sjenica, Ivanjica, Prijepolje, Crna Trava and Surdulica, where the height of snow has reached approximately 2 meters. According to him, power supply is “relatively good,” outages are being fixed quickly and there have been no long power outages.

Maric also announced the possibility of declaring a full state of emergency nationwide, which the Government did on Sunday evening, cancelling school throughout Serbia at least until Friday, February 10, among other things.

Several actions have been organized by the online community in Serbia and the region to fend off the snow and to attempt to regain a functional state in urban areas at least, such as a #lopataup (”#shovelup”), organized by one online community leader, Zoran Torbica, and other local Twitter users.

In the meantime, Al Jazeera Balkans, the recently established regional office of Al Jazeera news network in the region, has joined forces with the team from Ushahidi to set up a platform for tracking verified information on everything from road blocks, power outages to other critical points and information in the entire region. Ushahidi is an open-source platform for information collection, visualization and interactive mapping, which was also used in Serbia just after the earthquake in Kraljevo in November 2010 to map and track damage in the area.

Haris Alisic, who heads the New Media team for Al Jazeera Balkans, launched the platform on Sunday evening, and many members of the online community, including some of the region’s GV authors, have joined the Al Jazeera-Ushahidi team in curating, tracking and verifying reports from the region.

The adapted Ushahidi platform can be located on Al Jazeera’s official site, while reports can be sent in by anyone using the following channels:

- via SMS to +387644218661
- via Twitter by using the hashtags #kolaps #sneg #snijeg #lopataup #iskljucenje
- via email to oluja2012@aljazeera.net
- or by entering information directly into the form on the”pošaljite izvještaj” tab on the Al Jazeera page

If you would like to volunteer your time to help map critical areas and are familiar with using online tools, please contact the author of this article, or Haris Alisic via Twitter, or leave a comment here on Global Voices, and we will contact you for more information on what you can do to help. We also ask that you all begin reporting from your area on Twitter and using the above-mentioned hashtags on Twitter, which are automatically collected by the platform and then reviewed and verified by Al Jazeera and volunteers.

Bosnian men are trying to push a car away from the deep snow. Photo by Sulejman Omerbasic, copyright © Demotix (5/02/12).

Written by Danica Radisic

A hydraulic fracturing operation under way in western Pennsylvania.

In his State of the Union address, President Barack Obama praised the potential of the country’s tremendous supply of natural gas buried in shale. He echoed the recommendations for safe extraction made by an advisory panel that included Stanford geophysicist Mark Zoback. The panel made 20 recommendations for regulatory reform, some of which go well beyond what the president mentioned in his address. The topic is controversial. Breaking up rock layers thousands of feet underground with hydraulic fracturing has unleashed so many minuscule bubbles of methane that shale gas now accounts for 30 percent of U.S. gas production, an increase in supply that has pummeled the commodity’s price. The gas industry will support more than 600,000 jobs by the end of the decade, Obama said.

But environmental concerns about the technology behind the boom — specifically hydraulic fracturing — receive near daily news coverage, with opponents saying that toxic additives in the water used for the fracturing have found their way into household tap water, among other concerns.

Obama said natural gas producers will have to disclose the chemicals they add to the fracturing slurry of water and sand when they are working on federal lands. The Secretary of Energy’s seven-person advisory group on shale gas, of which Zoback was a member, called for such disclosure by shale gas operators on all lands. The advisory group further recommended that data on a well-by-well basis be posted on publicly available, searchable websites.

“The problem is that the president only has jurisdiction over federal lands, while states regulate development on private land, where most of the shale formations are found,” Zoback said. “The so-called ‘Halliburton exclusion’ passed by Congress says gas companies don’t have to disclose the chemicals in fracturing fluids. That was a real mistake because it makes the public needlessly paranoid.”

The chemical additives used during hydraulic fracturing are really not a serious issue, Zoback said at the Precourt Institute for Energy’s weekly Energy Seminar. The problem lies elsewhere: Once water is injected into the shale, it can pick up naturally occurring selenium, arsenic and iron, a lot of salt and even radioactive particles. Thus, when this water flows back up the well, it has to be disposed of properly. What gas companies do with that water is a serious regulatory problem. Typically, they either reuse it or inject it into deep saline aquifers, Zoback said, and regulators must monitor the safe disposal of the water.

“In western Pennsylvania, the gas companies initially said that recycling water used for hydraulic fracturing couldn’t be done economically,” Zoback said. “But because there were really no good options for safe disposal, they now recycle 95 percent of the water used, and it’s not a big deal.” Much is still to be discovered about the rapidly expanding technology, Zoback said.

“I think it is fair to say that the bigger producers have no problem with our 20 recommendations. The question is whether state regulators will implement them and small companies will be forced to follow them as well as large ones,” Zoback said. “That’s of great concern to us.”

Obama cited shale gas development as justification for federal investments in clean energy technology, which have been under attack since the bankruptcy of solar panel manufacturer Solyndra, which received federal loan guarantees on about $500 million it borrowed.

“Public research dollars, over the course of 30 years, helped develop the technologies to extract all this natural gas out of shale rock — reminding us that government support is critical in helping businesses get new energy ideas off the ground,” the president said. “Payoffs on these public investments don’t always come right away. Some technologies don’t pan out; some companies fail. But I will not walk away from the promise of clean energy.”

If well regulated, the enhanced gas supplies could cheaply supplant coal as the main source for electricity generated by burning fossil fuel, which would go far in reducing the threat of climate change, Zoback said. Gas produces half the carbon dioxide of coal per kilowatt-hour of electricity produced. And major oil companies are investing heavily to develop natural gas liquids to displace gasoline and diesel fuel in transportation, which could improve economic and national security.

“Gas is the bridge fuel to a decarbonized future, not a way of sustaining business as usual,” Zoback said.

On January 23, Bloomberg News reported Warren Buffett’s Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railway (BNSF), owned by his lucrative holding company Berkshire Hathaway, stands to benefit greatly from President Barack Obama’s recent cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline.

If built, TransCanada’s Keystone XL (KXL) pipeline would carry tar sands crude, or bitumen (“dilbit”) from Alberta, B.C. down to Port Arthur, Texas, where it would be sold on the global export market.

If not built, as revealed recently by DeSmogBlog, the grass is not necessarily greener on the other side, and could include increased levels of ecologically hazardous gas flaring in the Bakken Shale, or else many other pipeline routes moving the prized dilbit to crucial global markets.

Rail is among the most important infrastructure options for ensuring tar sands crude still moves to key global markets, and the industry is pursuing rail actively. But transporting tar sands crude via rail is in many ways a dirtier alternative to the KXL pipeline. “Railroads too present environmental issues. Moving crude on trains produces more global warming gases than a pipeline,” explained Bloomberg.

A key mover and shaker behind the push for more rail shipments is Warren Buffett, known by some as the “Oracle of Omaha” — of “Buffett Tax” fame — and the third richest man in the world, with a net worth of $39 billion. With or without Keystone XL, Warren Buffett stands to profit enormously from multiple aspects of the Alberta Tar Sands project. He also, importantly, maintains close ties with President Barack Obama.

Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, BNSF and the Tar Sands

Many eyebrows were raised in August 2008, when two of the richest men on the planet, Warren Buffett and Bill Gates, sojourned to Alberta’s tar sands patch. The Calgary Herald wrote “they took in the oilsands, apparently with awe.” According to a reliable but confidential source quoted in the story, the two men “visited the booming hub to satisfy ‘their own curiosity’ but also ‘with investment in mind.’”

And while he told the media he wasn’t interested in doing so at the time of the trip, Buffett soon became a major investor in tar sands related assets. A year after his visit to the oil sands, in November 2009, Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway purchased BNSF Railway as a wholly owned subsidiary.

BNSF Railway is the second largest freight railroad network in North America. BNSF “plans $3.9 billion in capital spending this year, an increase of 11 percent from 2011,” according to a recent article by Bloomberg.

BNSF serves as a vital cog in the oil sands procurement process. In the November/December 2008 edition of BNSF’s employee magazine, “Railway,” BNSF produced a piece titled, “Alberta oil Sands: No sour deal.”

The article reveals the exact role BNSF plays in the oil sands procurement process:

Before bitumen can move through a pipeline to its destination, it must be blended with diluents (diluting agents) such as natural gasoline (not natural gas, which is a gaseous fuel) or butane, which are composed of lighter weight hydrocarbons.

For the last two years, BNSF has been moving single carloads of diluents from U.S.refineries to the Canadian border (at Superior,Wis., Noyes, N.D., Sweetgrass, Mont., and New West minster, B.C.). The inbounds are then interchanged with Canadian railroads, then moved to Edmonton, with the final move to the oil sands’ processing center via pipeline.

Last year, BNSF moved about 9,000 carloads of diluents for the project, with the majority of loads originating from the Gulf Coast,California and Kansas. This year, about 12,000 carloads are anticipated to move.

(Snip)

In addition to moving the diluents, BNSF has also transported turbines, other large machinery and pipes for use at the drilling sites.

Not only does BNSF haul diluent materials in its freight trains bound for Alberta for tar sands oil procurement, but it also hauls pipes and pipeline materials.

Does this include materials for the KXL Pipeline? As the prospective pipeline is not yet officially dead, this is a key question to ask.

Look no further than to BNSF’s involvement in hauling the pipeline materials for the original TransCanada Keystone pipeline for crucial evidence.

BNSF Railway and the Original Keystone Pipeline

A South Dakota state government document shows that BNSF and TransCanada Keystone Pipeline, LP entered into a Pipeline License Agreement on August 1, 2008. The Agreement called for BNSF to carry pipeline materials from South Dakota up to the Alberta tar sands.

The Keystone Pipeline was the first TransCanada pipeline carrying tar sands crude down from Alberta to Cushing, Oklahoma.

BNSF Railway, the KXL Pipeline, and Railway Alternative

BNSF’s ties to TransCanada are not limited to the Keystone Pipeline — they are also on the State Department’s “Distribution List” section of the Environmental Impact Statement report released in August 2011 on TransCanada’s KXL pipeline proposal.

In its final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS), the State Department acknowledged that railway is both a key alternative to the Keystone XL and capable of hauling dilbit around North America to vital markets through 2030, stating,

Even in a situation where there was a total freeze in pipeline capacity for 20 years, it appears that there is sufficient capacity on existing rail tracks to accommodate shipping…through at least 2030…[S]tatistics from the Department of Transportation,…conservatively estimated that the existing cross-border rail lines from Canada to the U.S. could accommodate crude oil train shipments of over 1,000,000 bpd (barrels per day).

Keystone XL, if built, is expected to ship 700,000 bpd of tar sands crude to Port Arthur, Texas, according to Bloomberg. Furthermore, the State Department notes that rail transport is also a dirtier alternative than a pipeline, due to the diesel cumbustion inherent in such a scheme.

In addition, there would be an increase in the emission of combustion products due to the use of diesel engines which could have an adverse impact on air quality along the route selected.  As compared to the proposed Project (Keystone XL), this alternative would have substantially greater GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions during operation due to the combustion of diesel fuel.

BNSF is eager to haul anything and everything it can. “Whatever people bring to us, we’re ready to haul [and if KXL] doesn’t happen, we’re here to haul.” Krista York-Wooley, a spokeswoman for BNSF said in an interview with Bloomberg.

Buffett’s financial interests in the tar sands, though, go far beyond the Keystone XL saga, and into the development of the tar sands more generally, through Berkshire Hathaway’s extensive stock holdings in ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil, and General Electric. All three corporations are big league financial players in this game.

Berkshire Hathaway, ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil and General Electric

An August 2011 Fox Business story revealed Buffett owns 29.1 million shares of stock in ConocoPhillips, 421,800 shares of stock in ExxonMobil, and 7.777 million shares of stock in General Electric. All three of these corporations are deeply tied to the Alberta tar sands.

As of the Jan. 24 closing stock prices for the three corporations, this amounts to $1.73 billion worth of stock owned by Berkshire in these three Alberta oil sands profiteers.

ConocoPhillips’ website notes that it runs the Surmont oil sands project in Alberta. That project produces some 110,000 barrels of tar sands crude per day and is expected to run through 2015, according to Reuters.

ExxonMobil also has a massive stake in the Alberta Tar Sands through its Canadian subsidiary, Imperial Oil. As reported by Agence France-Presse in May 2009, ExxonMobil has plans, through its Kearl oil sands project, to begin producing 110,000 barrels of tar sands crude per day in 2012. ExxonMobil has future plans to produce over 300,000 barrels per day of dirty tar sands crude via the Kearl oil sands.

ExxonMobil is also deeply invested in oil sands pipelines, exposed in July 2011 for carrying oil sands crude down from Alberta through Montana in one of its pipelines. The pipeline ruptured, spilling 1,000 barrels of oil into the Yellowstone River.

Lastly, General Electric (GE), via its GE Water & Process Technologies and GE Canada subsidiaries, also has much to gain from tar sands oil development, particularly in the area of water holding and usage, once water has been contaminated during the procurement process.

A September 2010 press release reads,

“In 2007, GE entered into a $15-million technology development program with the Alberta Water Research Institute and its research funding partners. The program aims to develop technology to improve water reuse and management in in-situ oil sands operations. GE is also actively involved in developing and proving effective technologies for treating tailings water for industrial reuse, in order to help operators improve the efficiency of their operations.”

In addition to its tight-knit financial and research relationship with the Alberta Water Research Institute, GE also owns a water treatment facility in the tar sands patch through its wholly owned subsidiary, Zenon Environmental Inc., which it purchased for $760 million in 2006. Furthermore, in September 2011, Grizzly Oil Sands ULC announced that it had chosen GE’s water technology for its Algar Lake oil sands project in Alberta.

Buffett Raises Big Bucks for Barack

Buffett hosted an Obama fundraiser in August 2007, well before the 2008 Democratic Party presidential primaries. The minimum donation was $500 to attend and many gave up to $2,300.

“About 35 people who gave the higher amount or helped raise money from others met first with Buffett and Obama in a smaller room,” wrote the Los Angeles Times.

Buffett did not limit his fundraising help in the Democratic primary process to Obama exclusively. He also hosted two multi-million dollar fundraising events for Hillary Clinton’s presidential bid in 2007, one in June in New York City and another in December in San Francisco.

“Guests at a high-dollar fundraiser for Hillary Rodham Clinton on Tuesday were treated to cocktails, dinner and an hour-long business tutorial from billionaire Warren Buffett……[T]he fundraiser…brought in at least $1 million for Clinton…,” wrote the Associated Press of the June New York City fundraiser.

The San Francisco event, on the other hand, drew “about 1,200 people,” with tickets costing “between $100 and $2,300.” The event raised over $1 million for the Clinton for President campaign.

Once Obama won the Democratic Party nomination in May 2008, not long thereafter, Buffett endorsed Obama for President. A couple months later, in July, Buffett hosted a fundraiser for Obama with a required commitment of the individual maximum $28,500 per attendee, according to the New York Times.

Buffett has maintained tight ties with President Obama since his November 2008 victory, and has met with Obama to discuss economic issues on multiple occasions. Additionally, in February 2011, Obama honored Buffett with a Presidential Medal of Freedom.

At the awards ceremony Obama ironically scoffed, “Buffett doesn’t wear ‘fancy ties’ or drive ‘fancy cars.’ Instead, ‘you see him devoting the vast majority of his wealth to those around the world who are suffering, or sick, or in need of help,’” wrote Bloomberg on the scene of the the medal ceremony.

Most recently, Buffett has hosted Obama campaign fundraisers on September 30 in New York and October 27 in Chicago. Of the New York City Buffett fundraiser, CNN Money wrote, “The event will bring in a pretty penny for the campaign. The base price is $10,000, while a $35,800 donation will buy a VIP reception with Buffett, according to the schedule.”

The Chicago Buffett fundraiser was similar in its extravagance, “with a ticket price of $35,800 per person,” according to Bloomberg, or nearly $10,000 more than the 2010 median American income of $26,364.

Buffett also gave a $30,800 donation to the Democratic National Committee in October 2011, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.

From TransCanada Corruption to BNSF Corruption

While DeSmogBlog and many others thoroughly uncovered the corrupt ties between the Obama White House and State Department and the tar sands lobby, the additional Obama-Buffett-industry ties have gotten little play in the media until now.

Next week, we’ll reveal the findings of DeSmogBlog’s investigation into the Union Pacific/U.S. Chamber of Commerce ties to tar sands transport. Lo and behold, industry corruption is prolific on both sides of the political aisle.

Image credit: Pete Souza, Executive Office of the President

With the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) set to finally enact stricter air pollution standards in accordance with the Clean Air Act and two subsequent U.S. Supreme Court decisions requiring them to do so, powerful Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives are working to make sure that the new standards never see the light of day. The specific measures being targeted are the EPA’s new standards for carbon emissions from power plant smoke stacks.

Fred Upton (R-MI), chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, along with Republicans Joe Barton (TX) and Ed Whitfield (KY) sent a letter last week to the White House, demanding that the Obama administration take action to stop the EPA from regulating carbon emissions from power plants.

From their letter:

We are concerned about the regulation’s impact on jobs and the economy, and that it will not comply with all applicable Executive Orders…

In this rulemaking, EPA may be seeking to do precisely what Congress and the American public rejected in the last Congress. The Waxman-Markey cap-and-trade legislation from the 111^th Congress would have significantly raised the cost of energy and driven US jobs overseas.

We ask for your help in supporting policies that will encourage economic growth and job creation rather than additional costly regulations that will raise new barriers to job creation and burden struggling businesses and families.

The three men certainly know how to include the buzzwords that appeal to American citizens – jobs, economy, raising energy prices – but when put through the truth test, their claims simply don’t hold up. For example, enacting the new standards has the opposite effect on the job market – it would create tens of thousands additional jobs for American workers, not destroy them. The conservative Heritage Foundation has also been beating the drum about regulations raising energy costs, which could actually happen. However, any rate increases would be a corporate decision, not a government decision. The electric energy industry in America currently generates $370.5 billion a year in revenue, with an average revenue of $9.88 per KwH sold. With the national average to produce a kilowatt hour of electricity being around 10 cents, that leaves the company a profit of more than $9 per Kwh of electricity sold, meaning that any rate increases are the result of protecting profits, not because they can’t afford the increase.

So why are these Republicans trying to dismantle the work of the EPA? Simple – they are in the pockets of the dirty energy industry. Fred Upton has received more than $640,000 from electric utilities over his career, and an additional $308,000 from oil and gas. Joe Barton has a combined total of more than $3 million from electric utilities and oil and gas over the course of his career. And Ed Whitfield has gotten more than $600,000 from the two sectors during his tenure in Washington. All of these men have a direct financial stake in the profitability of the dirty energy industry. After all, the more money these companies spend on complying with new standards, the less they have to purchase politicians in Washington.

These latest attacks on the EPA and the environment are not a surprise. In fact, the anti-environmental record of the US Congress over the last year was so awful that Democratic Congressmen Henry Waxman, Edward Markey, and Howard Berman prepared a report last December detailing the numerous ways in which the 112^th Congress earned the reputation as the most anti-environmental Congress in history:

House Republicans have repeatedly voted to undermine basic environmental protections that have existed for decades. They have voted to block actions to prevent air pollution; to strip the Environmental Protection Agency of authority to enforce water pollution standards; to halt efforts to address climate change; to stop the Department of the Interior from identifying lands suitable for wilderness designations; to allow oil and gas development off the coasts of Florida, California, and other states opposed to offshore drilling; and to slash funding for the Department of Energy, including funding to support renewable energy and energy efficiency, by more than 80%.

The House of Representatives averaged more than one anti-environmental vote for every day the House was in session in 2011. Of the 770 legislative roll call votes taken in the House this year, 22% – more than one out of every five – were votes to undermine environmental protection. During these roll calls, 94% of Republican members voted for the anti-environment position, while 86% of Democratic members voted for the pro-environment position.

The Environmental Protection Agency was the most popular target of House Republicans. Of the 191 anti-environment votes, 114 targeted EPA; 35 targeted the Department of the Interior; and 31 targeted the Department of Energy.

And that was just in their first year. Imagine what they can accomplish the next round of elections this coming November.

Image credit – MZ ChelleyCredible Blog

The maps don’t mean changes or development can’t take place in Scotland’s wild areas, but they do give local authorities more and better information to base planning decisions on, says Simon Brooks, policy and advice manager for Scottish Natural Heritage. (Credit: U. Leeds)

U. LEEDS (UK) — A new map detailing Scotland’s wild areas is expected to help local authorities make decisions about development and land use.

Wait, you thought we were going to talk about Sunday night’s football game? That small clash between the New York Giants and the New England Patriots in Super Bowl 46, watched by more than 100 million fans in the U.S.?

Well, we are. Sort of. Because Sunday’s Super Bowl in Indianapolis capped this snowless winter’s coming-out party. Thanks to the winter that wasn’t, Indy was a big hit. Temperatures in the city averaged approximately 25 degrees higher than normal this week. Mild, snowless winters like this one may be more common as the world continues to warm, as will extreme variations in weather patterns. Much of Europe has been enduring that kind of variation as severe cold and snow has killed hundreds across the continent the past few days.

When Indianapolis was awarded the Super Bowl several years ago, the groans from the football congnoscenti were audible. Indianapolis? A hick town in the Midwest? Do they have any other restaurants other than St. Elmo’s? And did anyone tell them the Super Bowl is in February?! The logo should have been a set of snowblowers.

Some of the whining came from the party crowd that would rather have every Super Bowl in Miami or New Orleans, but almost everyone prefers sunshine and beaches to ice scrapers and rock salt. The game wouldn’t be affected because the Colts had the good sense to build a dome over Lucas Oil Stadium, but the city’s week-long party leading up to it is always colored by the weather.

But once the moaning stopped and people arrived in Indy this past week, they were treated to mild temperatures that were pushing 60 degrees. All the gloom and doom about ice and snow, about how it would snarl traffic and keep people from flocking downtown to celebrate the event? That happened last year, when the Super Bowl was in Dallas.

So the locals in Indy celebrated the unseasonably balmy weather by throwing a great party, with hundreds of thousands flocking downtown to see a city transformed by the NFL’s big show. There was even a temporary zip line over downtown that people slid down without gathering icicles. The national media gushed over the atmosphere.

Locals in Indy celebrated the unseasonably balmy weather by throwing a great party, with hundreds of thousands flocking downtown to see a city transformed by the NFL’s big show. Credit: Carl Van Rooy/flickr.

“It’s at the top of the list. It’s one of the best Super Bowls I have ever covered,” said Rick Gosselin, a columnist for the Dallas Morning News. “Indianapolis got a break because of the weather. This has not been a cold winter. I have always thought this is a great big event town.”

This year, the first dip in the weather came the day before the big game, when it rained.

Colts owner Jim Irsay joked that it was all part of the plan. “I know the way we’re preparing and the way we’ve controlled the weather, which is hard to do. But we’ve had certain techniques that we’re going to keep hidden,” he said.

And what’s the next cold-weather, turned warm-weather venue seeking Super Bowl stardom? Two years from now when it comes to the greater New York area. It gets a big opportunity to show off then because not only is some of the fun outdoors, but so is the game.

Oh yeah. One more thing. The final score was New York 21, New England 17.

Additional Online Resources:

Super Bowl Revelers Flock Downtown — The Indy Channel

Reaction: What Super Bowl 2012 journalists are saying about Indy — IndyStar.com

Super Bowl week begins in Indianapolis; ice and snow no-shows — Pittsburgh Tribune-Review

Read more: Jane Sheahan Australia, New South Wales Flood, Jane Sheahan Roma, Video, Moree Australia, Australia, Australia Flooding, Jane Sheahan, Queensland Australia Flooding, Moree Australia Flood, Moree New South Wales, Extreme Weather, Queensland, Australia Weather, World News

So far, it hasn’t been a great winter for skiers, snowboarders, snowmobilers and folks who depend on a lot of snow for their recreation and livelihood. Some states—Washington and Alaska—and some ski areas like Taos in New Mexico, and Telluride in southern Colorado, have gotten dumped on. But most resorts across the country are hurting for snow and hurting for dollars as a result. (See my colleague Kelly Henderson’s recent blog post on this topic).

Some people have been arguing that this is just a normal fluctuation that comes with El Nino and La Nina weather patterns as well as the position of the jet stream, and that a warming climate has nothing to do with it. You can see evidence of this in the comments in response to Kelly’s blog.

Those weather patterns certainly do effect seasonal precipitation. But what we’re seeing this winter is part of a trend which is the result of more than just the current La Nina weather pattern. It is also the result of a buildup of heat-trapping carbon pollution in the atmosphere. As the US Global Climate Change Research Program states, “Snowpack has reduced over the last 50 years, due to temperature.” See their very helpful map of the trend in decreasing snowfall near bottom of page 42. [wwp- reproduced here:]

NASA scientist James Hansen shows in a recent paper that heat-trapping pollution has loaded the climate dice. Not only are severe heat waves becoming much more likely, but the warmer atmosphere holds more water. In the summer that means heavier down pours when it rains and more extreme droughts when it doesn’t. In winter it means that a larger share of precipitation comes as rain rather than snow, but when it does snow we can expect bigger blizzards. California skiers know how frustrating this can be. Last year big blizzards often made it impossible to get to the slopes, and this year has been patchy at best.

Negative human impact on the climate and winter recreation hasn’t been lost on people like professional snowboarders and skiers. Protect our Winters (POW) was founded by one of the pioneering and most celebrated boarders, Jeremy Jones, after Jones noticed that so many of the places he was riding all over the world had less and less snow as the years have gone by. Jones and fellow advocates Grethen Bleiler (an Olympic silver medalist), and extreme skiing champion Chris Davenport, have taken their argument to Washington, lobbying members of Congress to pass legislation to cut carbon pollution. Big retailers like The North Face, Patagonia, Vans and O’Neill are behind POW–these companies make a lot of money selling winter gear. Less snow and shorter winters mean lower sales.

Other internationally known winter sports athletes, including two time Olympic gold medalist Seth Wescott, are also getting involved in helping boost support for cutting heat-trapping pollution

In a related development, as the Washington Post reported recently, the Department of Agriculture released a new plant hardiness zone map that shows generally warmer low temperatures for winter than the department’s previous map from 1990. The zones cover all 50 states and Puerto Rico and were drawn from the average winter low temperatures between 1976 and 2005 at 8,000 weather stations. The Agriculture Department did say, though, that the new map is not specifically a tool to measure climate change and that many of the boundary shifts are the product of better and more complete data and sophisticated computer algorithms.

As to the trend of overall human-induced warming temperatures, check out the recent New York Times article reporting on a new striking video NASA produced showing how temperatures around the globe have risen since 1880.

While weather does fluctuate year by year, and El Nino/La Nina do have an impact, the long-term trend is less snow and earlier snowmelt. This means more frustration for snow sport enthusiasts and a negative impact on the snow sports industry just as we are seeing in so many parts of the country this winter.

Storm Chaser Andy Gabrielson Killed in Accident

Feb 6, 2012; 9:27 AM ET

Storm Chaser Andy Gabrielson, who had an uncanny ability to film dozens of tornadoes up close, perished Saturday evening in a tragic traffic accident in Oklahoma. He, and another driver, were the victims of a drunk driver going the wrong way on the Interstate. This is the second storm chaser death this decade, but it’s notable that neither died while chasing.

Andy was a well respected chaser who had traveled over 180,000 miles in 24 states to intercept over 150 tornadoes — arguably the most successful, even more so than well-known chaser celebrities. Yet he shied away from the limelight, doing what he did to document for science and save lives through spotter reporting. An incredible thing happened upon the news of his death — dozens of chasers and spotters in Kansas formed the initials “A.G.” by faking their GPS positions on the SpotterNetwork.Org‘s map, while those who couldn’t lit up the rest of the Midwest like a Christmas tree. It was a fitting tribute to a great man. Here’s a timelapse of the GPS positions:

A memorial fund has also been setup by his chasing group, SevereStudios.com. They say: “100% of donations will be given to the Gabrielson family to help his young daughter. Andy’s parents are also researching a scholarship in Andy’s name to help students interested in weather. In addition to the Memorial Fund, you may still purchase Andy’s DVD’s at the SevereStore with all proceeds after shipping going to the Gabrielson family.” If you want to see what the legend was like (and help his family), buy those two DVDs today.

He was chasing in Texas as recently as Friday, when WFAA interviewed him during a ridealong (video above). You can also leave comments on SevereStudio’s page; a couple are reprinted below:

“Andy was one of the first chasers I started watching, and I remember watching every time I could, I met him a few times and was astounded by how polite he was.”

“I always admired the work that Andy did, he put his heart and soul into chasing and documenting severe weather. Simply one of the best of the best. Wishing I had a chance to shake his hand. He will be watching over us now. Andy, steer those tornadoes to open fields and live streams. Rest in peace, dear Sir.”

Another nice way that we can remember his work is to nominate him for a ShortyAward in #weather. This was his last video uploaded to YouTube, less than a month ago (although he was streaming live video while chasing in Oklahoma as recently as last Friday):