October 28, 2008

COLUMBUS, Ohio — Here’s one random sampling from a battleground state, with some margin for error.

“I just want it to end,” my father says. “Make it stop.”

The phone has just rung, and he knows the number. Knows not to answer. “It’s just them,” he mutters.

“Them,” by the way, is a non-partisan designation. When it comes to wanting to be left alone, my father is politically agnostic. It really isn’t his fault. He’s lived here going on 40 years and has watched, helplessly, as his once-sleepy town sprouted up around him, went major-league and now is suffering the consequences of being the most divided large city in one of the most divided states in the union.

Throw in advances in technology and the transformational effect of hundreds of millions in cash, and there is literally nowhere to hide. John McCain, Barack Obama and their surrogates can’t be ducked or dodged. They’re on television, on the phone, pounding on doors, sending mail. When it’s one-and-one, they call that felony stalking. Writ large, it’s the modern political campaign in a make-or-break state.

There’s no relief. Michelle Obama was here Friday. McCain Sunday. It’s like the old joke about the weather here. Don’t like it? Wait.

Early morning. As the sun peeks through the curtains of the hotel, the TV blares: “John McCain. Instead of fixing health care. He wants to tax it.” You were expecting The Wiggles?

You jump in the car, switch on the radio. “There are 100 good reasons for how you vote this year and only one bad reason: prejudice.” This is how to feel bad about yourself before breakfast.

Polls show Ohio to be in a dead heat. But the pressure really is on McCain. He has to win this state, a famous national bellwether, to have any shot at the White House. That’s why he and Sarah Palin have been coming here so often they should have Buckeyes painted on their cheeks like the local sophomores. Central Ohio would like to help McCain. He still leads in this region, narrowly. This has always been a place big on national security, cool on taxes, with a tendency to go with the reliable over the unknown.

But the economy trumps everything. And Columbus, too, has changed. Years ago, the heroes were Ronald Reagan and Jim Rhodes, the tough-talking Republican who served for 16 years and sent the National Guard to the protests at Kent State. Now there’s a Democratic governor, Ted Strickland, and an African-American mayor, Michael Coleman. Meanwhile, during the last eight years, the state has suffered the most job losses since the Great Depression.

Conservative radio talk show hosts, though, have not surrendered. The chatter on a local station one weekend manages to connect Obama to William Ayers, black separatists, socialism, Al Qaeda, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, and ACORN in the space of 10 minutes. His callers sound fearful. One labels Obama a fake Christian. “He believes we are all divine at birth,” the caller says. “But there was only one who was that and his name was Jesus Christ.”

Neither has the local Republican Party given in. It’s been busy trying to get lists of newly registered voters that the Democratic secretary of state, Jennifer Brunner, allegedly failed to match with records in federal databases. If the GOP can get the names, they can attempt to perhaps disqualify some of the voters.

But its lawsuit was halted by the U.S. Supreme Court. Now, Rep. John Boehner (R-Ohio) has asked the White House to send in the Justice Department before Election Day. One resident took matters into his own hands. On Friday, he was arrested for calling Brunner’s office and threatening to kill her.

That same day, the city newspaper, the Dispatch, reported that the state was investigating whether its computer records were illegally searched to gather personal information on “Joe the Plumber”—Samuel Joseph Wurzelbacher, the McCain mascot who lives near Toledo. The next day, Wurzelbacher told Fox News that he was considering running for Congress.

It all cried out for a diversion, which is why my father and 100,000 others were eagerly awaiting Saturday night’s Penn State-Ohio State football game. But as we entered the bowels of the famous horseshoe, we heard a familiar refrain echoing through the cavernous grandstand. And it wasn’t “Hang on Sloopy.”

“I’m John McCain and I approved this message.”

By the way, OSU lost to Penn State—and it was the Nittany Lions’ first win in Columbus in 30 years. Change, it appears, has arrived.

Tribune correspondent James Oliphant, who lived in Columbus for 20 years, was home over the weekend.

joliphant@tribune.com

Copyright © 2008, Chicago Tribune

John Woo, Kevin Smith and Wes Anderson weigh in. Well, not really.

The papers of the late William H. Rehnquist, Chief Justice of the United States from 1986 until his death in 2005, have been donated to the Hoover Institution Archives at Stanford University. Rehnquist, an alumnus of Stanford, received three degrees from the university, including his law degree, and, before ascending to the Supreme Court, was a member of the Hoover Institution Board of Overseers.

John Raisian, the institution’s Tad and Dianne Taube Director, in making the announcement said, “This is a major acquisition for the Hoover Archives; it complements our collections from the judicial, executive, and legislative branches. Chief Justice Rehnquist’s collection will enhance Hoover’s reputation as a major repository for materials on the U.S. government during the latter part of the twentieth century, and we believe researchers will find it to be an important resource for examining judicial decision making covering the Chief Justice’s more than thirty years on the Supreme Court. We are pleased that Chief Justice Rehnquist’s papers are coming full circle back to Stanford, where he began his illustrious legal career.”

The Supreme Court correspondent Tony Mauro was all over this–and wrote earlier Wednesday that the Hoover Institution would be making papers from 1972, when Rehnquist joined the court, until 1975 available. Why just that period? Because no justice from that time of the court remains alive. Justice John Paul Stevens has served since ’75.

Alex Tabarrok, an economist at George Mason University, writes:

Three economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Chari, Christiano and Kehoe, now further support my analysis pointing to Four Myths about the Financial Crisis of 2008. 

The myths

1. Bank lending to nonfinancial corporations and individuals has declined sharply.
2. Interbank lending is essentially nonexistent.
3. Commercial paper issuance by nonfinancial corporations has declined sharply and rates have risen to unprecedented levels.
4. Banks play a large role in channeling funds from savers to borrowers.

Each of these myths is refuted by widely available financial data from the Federal Reserve.  It’s a short paper, read the whole thing.

None of this means that everything is cheery.  Like most people I think that we are in a recession which is likely to get worse but we need to remind ourselves that recessions are normal.  What is not normal is the current level of panic.

The links should take you to the Federal Reserve paper. (Has anyone asked Ben Bernanke about this?)

The Chicago Tribune reports that among recent medical records released by Sen. Joe Biden, the Democratic vice presidential nominee, there are no scans that might indicate the potential for another dehabilitating aneurysm such as the ones he suffered 20 years ago. Biden, 65, had multiple brain surgeries following the attacks.

Here’s the report:

Newly released medical records from vice presidential candidate Joe Biden do not include the results of any recent brain scans, which some experts consider necessary to assess whether the senator is at risk for a repeat of the brain aneurysms that nearly killed him 20 years ago. Biden’s most recent physical exam in July showed him to be in good health, according to a letter from Dr. John Eisold that the campaign released Monday. The letter from Eisold, who is the attending physician for Congress, described Biden’s cardiac capacity as excellent.

But the 49 pages of records the campaign released gave no indication that Biden’s doctors sought follow-up tests after the serious aneurysms he suffered in 1988. Medical experts are divided over the need for such precautionary brain scans, but many feel it is the only way to be sure a patient is out of danger.

“If this was my patient, I would re-image every three to five years to make sure no new aneurysm had cropped up,” said Dr. Mark Alberts, a professor of neurology at Northwestern University’s Feinberg School of Medicine.

The health of the candidates on both sides has become a small but growing issue in the last days of the presidential campaign. A comprehensive look on the subject by the New York Times’ Lawrence K. Altman stated that all four candidates on both tickets could be more forthcoming about their physical condition.

As for McCain:

Last May, his campaign and his doctors released nearly 1,200 pages of medical information, far more than the three other nominees. But the documents were released in a restricted way that leaves questions, even confusion, about his cancer.

A critical question concerns inconsistencies in medical opinions about the severity of his melanoma; if the classification of his melanoma is more severe, it would increase the statistical likelihood of death from a recurrence of the cancer.

Barack Obama has not released detailed medical records, and GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin has released absolutely no information about her physical health, despite, as Altman writes “the much-discussed circumstances” surrounding the birth of her fifth child in April.

As for Biden, Altman writes:

Shortly thereafter, on a trip to Rochester, Mr. Biden was alone in his hotel room when he felt a sharp stab in the back of his neck and a lightning flash in his head. The rip of pain was like none he had ever experienced. Nothing Mr. Biden did, including curling up in the fetal position, relieved the pain. He lay unconscious on the floor for five hours, he wrote in his autobiography, “Promises to Keep” (Random House, 2007).

The next morning, he felt somewhat better and flew home. His wife, Jill, summoned from the school where she taught, immediately took him to a hospital. Doctors determined he had a berry-shaped bulge in an artery that was leaking blood into his brain. Such bulges, or aneurysms, can tear at any time. Ruptured aneurysms are fatal in about 50 percent of cases. Up to 20 percent of survivors remain severely disabled. A Roman Catholic priest gave Mr. Biden last rites.

After a harrowing ambulance trip to Walter Reed Army Medical Center in Washington, a team of neurosurgeons put a clip on the artery to stop the bleeding. While recuperating, he suffered a major complication: a blood clot lodged in his lung.

A few weeks later, surgeons operated on a second aneurysm on the opposite side of his brain. Though it had caused no symptoms, it still could have burst as the first one did.

Mr. Biden returned to the Senate after a seven-month absence.

The Plain Dealer’s Bill Livingston has an insightful column about my favorite dysfunctional football team.

The suspension probably means the beginning of the end for Winslow here. The Browns probably would have only fined him, and not meted out a suspension, had they not played their only good game of the season against the Super Bowl champion New York Giants while Winslow was ill.

It seems, however, to be wishful thinking to believe Braylon Edwards will consistently catch the ball, Derek Anderson will consistently throw it with accuracy, and coach Romeo Crennel will get a consistent connection with reality about Anderson’s ability, not to mention a satisfactory grasp of clock management.

Frankly, Winslow has the heart of a lion, continually answering the bell on Sundays despite his many infirmities. He made the Pro Bowl last year after the most prolific season a Browns’ tight end ever had, and that includes Pro Football Hall of Famer Ozzie Newsome.

That should count for something, although no team can allow the comments he made to go unpunished.

Anyone who endured the Browns’ 14-11 loss to Washington on Sunday knows that right now, the fans are the one being punished.

I have a post up on my other blog, Bad Pacino, about the first season of the Showtime series.

The Republican National Committee has spent more than $150,000 to clothe and accessorize vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin and her family since her surprise pick by John McCain in late August.

According to financial disclosure records, the accessorizing began in early September and included bills from Saks Fifth Avenue in St. Louis and New York for a combined $49,425.74.

The records also document a couple of big-time shopping trips to Neiman Marcus in Minneapolis, including one $75,062.63 spree in early September.

The RNC also spent $4,716.49 on hair and makeup through September after reporting no such costs in August.

The cash expenditures immediately raised questions among campaign finance experts about their legality under the Federal Election Commission’s long-standing advisory opinions on using campaign cash to purchase items for personal use.

McCain camp says that it was always intended the clothes would be donated to charity after the election.

I really have no idea what he is wearing here.

It’s clear that from Paulson’s perspective, the strength of the Chinese economy can serve as a buffer against the chaos in the American and European markets.

“While some see China as a threat that must be countered or contained, I believe that the only path to success with China is through engagement,” Paulson said. “We must recognize that China’s growth is an opportunity for U.S. companies and consumers, for our producers, exporters and investors. A stable, prosperous and peaceful China is in the best interest of the Chinese people, the American people and the rest of the world.”

The full transcript of Paulson’s remarks can be found after the jump.

Here is a transcript of Paulson’s remarks:

The world’s financial markets are undergoing the most serious stresses in recent memory and this financial crisis has begun to negatively impact real economies here and around the world. China is feeling this stress as well, but fortunately its economy is expected to continue to be an important engine for global growth during this period. In the United States, recent collaborative actions by the Federal Reserve, the FDIC and the Treasury clearly demonstrate that our government will do what is necessary to significantly strengthen our banks and financial institutions, enabling them to increase financing for the consumption and business investments that drive U.S. economic growth. Through a multitude of powerful actions we have and will demonstrate our commitment to unlocking our credit markets and minimizing the impact of the current instability on the rest of the U.S. economy.

Addressing the effects of financial market turmoil around the world requires the dramatic steps we are taking here in the United States, and it requires close international corroboration and cooperation. We have been in close contact with Chinese leaders, as well as with leaders of many other nations. And we welcome Premier Wen’s statement that China will play a constructive and cooperative role in global efforts to deal with the current financial market turmoil. Throughout this turbulent time, I have stayed in close touch with Vice Premier Wang Qishan, who has now been appointed to lead China’s newly established international financial crisis committee. Our conversations have been useful and constructive. It is clear that China accepts its responsibility as a major world economy that will work with the United States and other partners to ensure global economic stability.

Governments must continue to take individual and collective actions to provide much-needed liquidity, strengthen financial institutions through the provision of capital and the disposition of troubled assets, prevent markets abuse, and protect the savings of their citizens. We must also take care to ensure that our actions are closely coordinated and communicated so that the action of one country does not come at the expense of others or the stability of the system as a whole.

Ten days ago leaders from the world’s 20 largest economies met in Washington and found ways to further enhance our collective efforts to lessen the effects of global market turmoil. Those meetings brought concrete actions that have supported world markets. I am heartened that the international community is working together for stability and to regain a footing of confidence. As confidence returns to the system, normal financial activities will resume. And we are all grateful for President Bush’s leadership during this time. As the President said on Friday, “The American people…can have confidence that this economy will recover. We’re a country where all people have the freedom to realize their potential and chase their dreams.” As the President knows, Americans are a strong and optimistic people. Although we expect current challenges to continue for a number of months, we will overcome them as we have overcome every challenge our Nation has ever faced.

We will elect a new president two weeks from today, and our new President should start from the perspective that China will continue to play a key role in the world economy. As a matter of fact, today more than ever the world is looking to China to be a big contributor to global economic growth. While some see China as a threat that must be countered or contained, I believe that the only path to success with China is through engagement. We must recognize that China’s growth is an opportunity for U.S. companies and consumers, for our producers, exporters and investors. A stable, prosperous and peaceful China is in the best interest of the Chinese people, the American people and the rest of the world.

U.S.-China relations are more productive today than ever before, largely because we have engaged China as it is, not as we might wish or imagine it to be. We have acted to lessen misperceptions and miscommunication between our countries.

An important part of the engagement has been through the Strategic Economic Dialogue established in 2006 by President Bush and President Hu. We have worked from the understanding that robust and sustained economic growth is a social imperative for China and that Beijing views its international interactions primarily through an economic lens. We have worked with Beijing on economic issues that are of mutual interest, and we have found that we can produce tangible results in both economic and noneconomic areas. Our recent close and frequent communication and cooperation as we address the challenges in the financial markets is a tangible example of the power and utility of a Strategic Economic Dialogue based on mutual trust

Over the past two years we have built a strong foundation for this dialogue by focusing on policy areas in which China’s reform agenda and U.S. interests intersect. The SED has found new and constructive ways to address some of the most important matters in our economic relationship — including growth imbalances, energy security and environmental sustainability, trade and investment issues, product safety, and China’s position in the world economy. Addressing these questions serves China’s interests, and is also vital to the U.S. and global economic future.

One of the SED’s major achievements is the Ten Year Energy and Environment Cooperation Framework. This framework is a bilateral mechanism to create a new energy-efficient model for sustainable economic development and to address the factors that cause climate change. Greater breakthroughs can be expected in the years ahead, and this framework provides the next administration a critically important platform for U.S. economic engagement with China.

Trade and investment, once the glue of U.S. -Chinese relations now also represent a source of increased tension. Any dynamic economy that is constantly creating new, higher-value jobs faces factory closings and job losses that are real and painful. The benefits of free trade are often spread across an entire country, while the lost jobs are more immediately visible. But succumbing to the temptation to make trade and foreign investment a scapegoat only breeds support for isolationist policies that will make us worse off, sacrificing future job opportunities and higher standards of living.

American investors in China, and Chinese investors in America, question whether the other country is truly open to investment and provides adequate legal protections. To answer this question, we sent a powerful and clear signal at the June SED meeting by launching negotiations of a U.S. – China bilateral investment treaty. Through these negotiations, we seek to assure our people and the world that our two nations welcome investment and will treat each other’s investors in a fair and transparent manner. And we will work even harder to resolve a critical issue for American companies working in China — better enforcement of intellectual property laws, to help China on its path to become an innovation society, while accelerating the development and competitiveness of its economy.

In the area of product safety, we have made real progress but need to intensify our work together to enhance China’s regulatory and legal infrastructure, to help them build quality into each stage of the manufacturing and distribution process.

In the financial sector, we have worked steadily to help China develop and open up its institutions. Some in China look at the recent failures in our financial markets and conclude that they should slow down their reforms. But there is a great opportunity for China to learn from our significant mistakes and move forward with reforms that have the potential to produce important gains for China and its people.

For example, a capital markets reform agenda will advance China’s economic goals in four important ways. It will rebalance the sources of China’s growth to ensure that it is more harmonious, more energy and environmentally efficient, and provides greater welfare for Chinese households. It will create effective macroeconomic policy tools to ensure stable, non-inflationary growth. It will support China’s transition to a market-driven and innovation-based economy; and, finally, it will assist China in dealing with its demographic challenges.

The SED has also provided an excellent forum for discussing the value of the RMB; I am pleased that China has appreciated the RMB by over 20 percent since July of 2005.

The SED has shown that active economic engagement between the highest levels of U.S. and Chinese leadership can keep our relationship on an even keel even as we tackle our most challenging issues and manage short-term tensions.

Chinese leaders understand that if the SED is to be sustained, it must be more than talk; it must continue to yield specific, tangible results, what I call signposts along the path toward transformational reform. We look forward to further progress in the on-going discussions with Chinese officials and at our next SED meeting in Beijing in December.

The successes of the SED in the past two years have created a foundation of mutual understanding and trust and a platform for further progress. And perhaps most importantly the SED has established a new model for communication, enabling us to address urgent issues such as turmoil in our financial markets, energy security and climate change. I hope that the next U.S. president will expand on the SED to take U.S.-Chinese relations to the next level. Thank you.