Xaivier Blog: Stock Market Investment and Sharing

Pros and Cons of Delaying Instant Gratification in Value Investing

noreply@blogger.com (Xaivier Chia) — Thu, 18 Jul 2024 18:36:00 -0700

Delaying instant gratification in value investing aligns with the principles of buying undervalued assets and waiting for the market to recognize their true value, potentially leading to higher returns and reduced risk. However, it also comes with challenges such as opportunity costs, market risks, psychological stress, and liquidity issues. Successful value investors must balance these pros and cons, maintain patience, and stay disciplined to achieve their long-term investment goals.

Pros:

1. Higher Potential Returns:

- Compounding:

Delayed gratification allows investments to benefit from compounding, potentially leading to higher returns over time.

- Market Corrections:

Value investing often involves buying undervalued stocks and waiting for the market to recognize their true value, which can result in significant capital appreciation.

2. Reduced Risk:

- Market Volatility:

Long-term investing helps smooth out short-term market volatility, reducing the impact of market fluctuations on the portfolio.

- Informed Decisions:

Taking time to thoroughly research and understand investments leads to more informed and potentially less risky decisions.

3. Cost Efficiency: - Lower cost:

Long-term investments often benefit from fewer transactions compared to short-term trading, enhancing net returns.

4. Behavioral Benefits

- Reduced Emotional Trading:

Delaying gratification reduces the temptation to make impulsive trading decisions based on short-term market movements.

- Focus on Fundamentals:

Encourages investors to focus on the underlying fundamentals of their investments rather than short-term price movements.

5. Consistency with Investment Philosophy: - Value Principles:

Delayed gratification aligns with the principles of value investing, where the goal is to buy undervalued assets and wait for the market to recognize their true worth.

Cons:

1. Opportunity Cost:

- Missed Opportunities:

Waiting for long-term gains might result in missing out on short-term profitable opportunities in other investments or markets.

- Capital Tied Up:

Funds invested in long-term positions are not available for other potentially lucrative investments.

2. Market Risk:

- Economic Cycles:

Long-term investments are exposed to economic cycles and market downturns, which can adversely affect returns.

- Company-Specific Risks:

Prolonged holding periods expose investments to company-specific risks such as management changes, regulatory impacts, and industry disruptions.

3. Psychological Challenges:

- Patience Required:

Delaying gratification requires significant patience and discipline, which can be challenging for many investors.

- Emotional Stress:

Watching investments fluctuate without taking action can be stressful and emotionally taxing.

4. Liquidity Issues: - Illiquidity:

Long-term investments may be less liquid, making it harder to access funds quickly in case of emergencies or unforeseen expenses.

5. Performance Uncertainty: - No Guarantees:

Despite thorough research, there are no guarantees that an undervalued stock will appreciate as expected. The market may remain irrational longer than an investor can stay patient.

That's all for today. More fascinating articles and sharing will be updated weekly in Xaivier Blog. So, you are welcome to subscribe our feed to receive our weekly updates

P/S: The above sharing is solely based on personal insight and information that believed to be reliable. Your valuable feedback are very welcome.

Value Investing: Navigating the Market with Wisdom

noreply@blogger.com (Xaivier Chia) — Sat, 6 Jul 2024 02:40:00 -0700

In the realm of value investing, patience and prudence are paramount. One of the core principles I adhere to is the balance between opportunity and risk. Understanding this balance is crucial in making informed investment decisions. Here’s a deeper dive into how I approach the market with this principle in mind.

Observing the Market

When opportunity and risk are equal, it signals a time for caution rather than action. During these periods, I focus on observing the market rather than making impulsive moves. This involves:

Monitoring Trends: Keeping an eye on broader market trends, sector performance, and individual stock movements.
Evaluating Fundamentals: Continuously assessing the fundamental health of companies on my watchlist. This includes analyzing financial statements, understanding business models, and staying updated on industry news.
Understanding Sentiment: Gauging market sentiment through various indicators and news sources to understand the prevailing mood among investors.

By maintaining a vigilant yet patient stance, I ensure that I am well-prepared to act when the time is right.

Buying When Risk is Overrated

In value investing, one of the most lucrative opportunities arises when Mr. Market overrates risk. This occurs when fear and uncertainty drive stock prices below their intrinsic value, creating a buying opportunity. Here’s how I capitalize on these moments:

Fear-Based Discounts: When a stock is undervalued due to temporary issues or market overreactions, I assess whether the underlying business remains strong. If the core fundamentals are intact, I consider this an opportunity to buy at a discount.
Margin of Safety: I always ensure there is a significant margin of safety in my purchases. This means buying stocks at prices well below their calculated intrinsic value, providing a cushion against potential losses.
Long-Term Perspective: Recognizing that the market’s short-term fluctuations do not necessarily reflect a company’s long-term prospects. This long-term view allows me to hold through volatility, confident in the eventual realization of value.

An example of this is during market downturns or specific company setbacks that are temporary in nature. These periods often provide excellent entry points for value investors.

Selling When Opportunity is Overrated

Conversely, when Mr. Market overrates opportunity, it’s time to consider selling. This happens when exuberance drives stock prices above their intrinsic value, often due to hype or unrealistic growth expectations. My approach to selling includes:

Recognizing Overvaluation: Identifying when a stock’s price significantly exceeds its intrinsic value. This can be detected through high price-to-earnings ratios, overly optimistic growth projections, and unsustainable market conditions.
Locking in Gains: When a stock I hold reaches a level where its price is no longer justified by its fundamentals, I evaluate the potential for future growth against the risk of a price correction. If the downside risk outweighs the potential upside, I opt to lock in gains by selling.
Reallocating Capital: Selling overvalued stocks frees up capital that can be reinvested in undervalued opportunities, thereby continuously optimizing my portfolio for maximum returns.

An instance of this would be during market bubbles or when a company’s stock price surges due to speculative buying rather than substantive improvements in its business.

Conclusion

The essence of value investing lies in the disciplined evaluation of opportunity and risk. By observing the market when these forces are balanced, buying when risk is overrated, and selling when opportunity is overrated, I navigate the complexities of the market with a steady hand. This approach not only helps in mitigating losses but also in maximizing gains over the long term. Remember, in value investing, patience and prudence are as valuable as the investments themselves.

That's all for today. More fascinating articles and sharing will be updated weekly in Xaivier Blog. So, you are welcome to subscribe our feed to receive our weekly updates

P/S: The above sharing is solely based on personal insight and information that believed to be reliable. Your valuable feedback are very welcome.

Stock Market 2021 End Year Review: Top loser: Glove; Top Winner: Defensive; Potential: Steel counters;

noreply@blogger.com (Xaivier Chia) — Fri, 31 Dec 2021 00:59:00 -0800

Year 2021 was another exciting year for me in stock market investment. Many lessons and experiences are worthy to be recorded. Let's start from lessons with negative return to positive.

1. Top loser: Glove counters
Without be specific, for those who held glove counters at the beginning of year 2021 until the end of the year, the experience is very hard and valuable. From the mixed of opinions about Glove industries until the recent EPS that clearly shows how quickly supply-and-demand can be balanced in a short period of time in this world. As there is a possibility that the supply will more than the demand, the PEs of glove counters are in historical low level. This shows that Mr Market is pessimistic about the near future performance of glove counters as many new players have joined the parties recently. However, if the price (or valuation) is cheap enough while the products are demanded in the future, this may be a better option to buy related shares instead of kick-start own glove business for those who want to kick-start a glove business now. (p/s: as my quota for glove counters is full, I have no plan to in more in current situation/valuation).

As an individual who needs to wear mask, we experienced the price of mask from RM80++ per a box until RM12+- in few months. This is the benefit of economic scale for consumers!! Hopefully with economic scale, glove industries players can continue to produce affordable gloves with good net profits for their contribution to this world.

2. Potential: Steel counters
Recently, the increase of steel price caused related players who are well positioned have reported attractive profits. Nevertheless, with relatively low PEs in Steel counters, Mr Market may still believe that the increase of steel price are temporary. Due to relatively low PEs and well balance sheet, I still hold my steel counters even though they are around 25% discount from their recent peak prices. Nevertheless, I will keep find sufficient convincing reasons to divest this investment from time to time.
(p/s: similar investment situation happens to plantation counters)

3. Top Winner: Defensive
Consumer counters were the top winners in my portfolio 2021. They were not only providing steady dividend incomes during this uncertainty period; but also achieved attractive capital gains. As the interest rate is still low now, I still have no plan to realize these unrealized gain from my portfolio as the dividend yield is still much much higher than interest rate now.

4. Overall of my portfolio
Even though the net unrealized return from my portfolio 2021 was in net -2.34% loses on 31/12/2021, overall it should be positive after including dividend incomes and other realized profits. Hopefully next year my investment performance will be sustained as what I did in last decade.

Everything is uncertain in this dynamic world. Thus, portfolio investment is suitable for me who aims to have a good sleep while protecting the purchasing power of my hard earned money. All the best to my reader too.

That's all for today. More fascinating articles and sharing will be updated weekly in Xaivier Blog. So, you are welcome to subscribe our feed to receive our weekly updates

Written by: Xaivier Chia

P/S: The above sharing is solely based on personal insight and information that believed to be reliable. Your valuable feedback are very welcome.

A Review of Zebra AI Class - Value of Money, Learning method

noreply@blogger.com (Xaivier Chia) — Fri, 17 Dec 2021 20:54:00 -0800

This review of Zebra AI Class is based on my observation on my kid (5 years old++), who has joined Zebra AI class for almost 2 months. We have subscribed to three subjects, which are Thinking (or Mathematics), English and (Chinese) Reading.

1. Costing / Fee

First, cost is everything - one course was 3000RMB (before special discounts) for 240 lessons (to be completed in 48 weeks), which is equivalent to only 12.50RMB per lesson. This is relatively cheap for a good quality lesson or tuition. Even though we need to use our space, electricity, and internet, I still consider this online course value worthy for my family as I can avoid unnecessary traffic jam to send my kid to physical learning places, and most importantly, my kid enjoys this remote learning method, which can be done anytime and anywhere.

2. Value of Money

As an international subscriber in Malaysia, if I chose the electronic version, then I would missed many good deals (i.e. hardcopy learning materials and gifts). As shipment service from China to Malaysia is available with affordable fees, hardcopy version is chosen. I am very satisfied with the quality and the content of the learning materials. Particularly, this saves my time from searching learning materials for my kid as a structured learning program is provided by Zebra AI class.

3. Nurture learning habit - Feasible learning time

Before that, I was considering the value of sending my kid to tuition class as there are many hidden costs, e.g. travel cost to fetch my kids, and the time required for my kid to integrate into the learning environment. The cost mentioned here also includes time. My aim is to nurture pro-active learning habit of my kid. Zebra AI class suits my aim as my kid can explore different learning time until my kid finds the most suitable learning time for herself. Besides, while trying different schedules, this gives my kid a chance to manage her time daily. This is a very important lesson for kid, in my perspective.

3. Remote learning - Benefits

By avoiding unnecessary travel time, my kid has more time to explore other activities at home. One thing that makes me happy everyday is to observe my kid who can independently learn, draw, and do art works (as follows). Another entertainment for me is to listen to her exciting sharing about what she learnt.

Art work by YJ 2021

4. AI class - Benefits - learning performance

All learning performance appears to be analyzed by AI in Zebra AI class so her designated teachers can quickly figure out the areas to be strengthen. Feedback from her teachers is timely as the feedback is received on the same day. As the feedback is recorded and can be repeated, I can achieve a very good understanding about the learning performance of my kid.

Since we are very satisfied with Zebra AI class, my wife has decided to join their program to promote this class. You can now get a free trial Zebra AI class (including 3 subjects, 15 lessons (5 lessons for each subject) to be completed in 5 days and many other free resources) through her referral link, https://yfdurl.com/opGsY1 as long as the promotion is still valid. No hidden cost. The class will automatically stop renew after the free trial class if you do not subscribe to the full course or other trial courses. There is no need to unsubscribe from the class. There will be no charges to you in whatsoever method. If you feel Zebra AI class does not suit your kid but receive follow-up messages or calls from the teacher, you can choose to ignore or tell the teacher frankly. It's free and easy to try this new remote learning method.

Thanks to my neighbor who introduced Zebra AI class to my family.

Any question about this free trial class can be emailed to xaivialim@gmail.com.

That's all for today. More fascinating articles and sharing will be updated weekly in Xaivier Blog. So, you are welcome to subscribe our feed to receive our weekly updates

Written by: Xaivier Chia

P/S: The above sharing is solely based on personal insight and information that believed to be reliable. Your valuable feedback are very welcome.

//===========================================//

In Chinese - Other referral links:
Any question about this free trial class can be emailed to xaivialim@gmail.com.

//===========================================//

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Limited Resources are Worthy for Investment and have Good Return?

noreply@blogger.com (Xaivier Chia) — Fri, 17 Dec 2021 19:43:00 -0800

Q: Limited Resources are Worthy for Investment and have Good Return?
A: Of course, NO.

1. Supply and Demand.

This is about the relationship of Supply and Demand. This is because people are only willing to "pay money" or "exchange values" for something that they need (i.e. essential goods and services) or want (i.e. unessential goods and services e.g. luxury brand, unproductive items.)

Thus, one way to increase the price of an item (goods or services) is make it appears to have high demand, but low supply. I use "appear" to show the trick that is commonly used in the present market. You shall easily figure few examples around you.

2. Intrinsic value and value investment

In stock market investment, the share (in percentage) is a limited resource. This is because the maximum amount of the shares of a business is 100%. This is impossible to make it more or less - even the number of shares is increased or reduced using various financial tools e.g. share buyback and bonus issue. If you hold 10% of the business, by participating all kinds of financial activities e.g. right issues, bonus issues, you will still hold 10% of the business.

Once you understand that the supply of the shares of a business is limited, then you will understand why the major shareholders of a good business are unlikely to exchange their shares for money. This is because the shares are limited while money is unlimited. This is the main reason why our money are relatively less valuable compared to the shares of a good business. For a bad business, the story will be opposite - of course.

3. Trick is here - the values of all assets are dynamic - including business.

If you now suddenly have a strong determination to ALL-IN your money to a certain asset, then most likely you are gambling!!. Everything is dynamic (keep changing), especially in business. If you are lucky to buy a business in low price, then the probability for you to earn money is high as the market price is lower than its intrinsic values. This is the idea of value investment. We aim to increase the probability instead of to get a chance that has 100% profit. The latter must be a SCAM if someone is trying to share an "opportunity" that will guarantee an attractive profit. Come on - if got such "opportunity", where are those bankers, private investors, hedge fund managers, etc. The 100% is about their commission or service fee by introducing this "opportunity" to you!!. Be aware!!!.

That's all for today. More fascinating articles and sharing will be updated weekly in Xaivier Blog. So, you are welcome to subscribe our feed to receive our updates

Written by: Xaivier Chia

P/S: The above sharing is solely based on personal insight and information that believed to be reliable. Your valuable feedback are very welcome.

Stock Investment: Focus on the Journey instead of Achievement - The Benefits of Self Investment

noreply@blogger.com (Xaivier Chia) — Fri, 2 Apr 2021 03:27:00 -0700

For stock market investment, the journey shall be what you experience from the beginning to the end of your investment. I have invested in stock market for more than 10 years, meaning that my journey has more than 10 years. When is the end of my investment journey, I believe it should be when I was unable to invest by myself.

There are many benefits that I get throughout the journey of investment:

(a) To gain the knowledge about how interested companies manage their business.

This is very difficult to earn *big* money. Due to competition, most of companies can only maintain a 5-15 net profit margin. Thus, any "special" investment due to your "special luck" is probably a scam.

(b) To know about what are the consequences to the business when an event happens e.g. Covid-19.

This is very important for me to improve my common senses and understanding about this world e.g. the effects of currency, interest rate, commonity, government policy etc.

(c) To digest the information that published directly from listed companies without polished by third parties.

No specific comment that I would like to share as it is my personal preference to figure out the fact by myself. Of course, I do read those third parties' published works as the content is much interesting.

In short, the journey of investment improves my confidence in making a decision. Even a decision is incorrect, I do learn something from the decision.

That's all for today. More fascinating articles and sharing will be updated weekly in Xaivier Blog. So, you are welcome to subscribe our feed to receive our weekly updates

Written by: Xaivier Chia

P/S: The above sharing is solely based on personal insight and information that believed to be reliable. Your valuable feedback are very welcome.

My Rabbits - Rest in Peace

noreply@blogger.com (Xaivier Chia) — Sat, 20 Mar 2021 16:58:00 -0700

My Rabbits - Rest in Peace

This morning, 2021 March 21, 6.30am, as usual, I opened the curtain but I found that there were 4-5 dogs were in my car porch while the main gate was opened. Immediately, I searched for my rabbits while opening the door and made noises to repel those uninvited "guests". When I came out from the house, in the car porch, no more those "strangers" but two my bunnies were just laying on the floor. I called their names - Ah Black, Ah Black... She had no response. Ah Bai, Ah Bai... He also had no response. No any heartbeat signals from their body. Their cage appeared to be opened rudely by those unwelcome "strangers". Maybe those strangers were just trying to play with them, maybe. Everywhere was messy. After few minutes observation on the scene, they were still no response. I decided to have their last sleeping place in their favorite garden with their favorite vegetables and playground. Positioning their favorite loving position in the place...

Now, I decide no more earphone during my rest time. In the night, I appeared to have hear some noises. Since there are plenty of this kind of noises around the living places, and I was quite tired and had no mood to ignite my curiosity... No turning back when time was passed. Just like lots of things that we can avoid by giving them few seconds e.g. ensuring their living place was safe as usual. What I can do is to ensure such controllable things will be prevented as many as I can.

Ah Bai, Ah Black - Rest in Peace.

Your careless Daddy to continue his life with passion as what you hope so.

Written by: Xaivier Chia

My Stock Market Investment Checklist 2021: Three Aspects to be Analyzed. Risk, Prospect, and Price.

noreply@blogger.com (Xaivier Chia) — Thu, 4 Mar 2021 08:00:00 -0800

1. Risk of bankruptcy Assessment.

Basically I will ignore those companies that have very unhealthy and unsustainable financial statement -

(a) Balance sheet - If the receivable amount is as high as the borrowing amount, and

(b) the receivable amount is more than 1.5 quarter revenue, and

then the risk of bankruptcy is very high.

2. Future prospect: Hopeful and hopeless business.

Hopeless business are those revenue is declined due to the reduction of the demands due to:

(a) New products that is going to replace it (e.g. pendrive / harddisk vs CD/DVD; lighten vs match),

(b) The change of habits/requirements to fulfill the needs (i.e. online shopping vs offline shopping)

Hopeful business are those products are demanded due to the change of habits/demands.

(a) Hygiene awareness causes more demands on hygiene related products e.g. gloves, masks, PPE.

(b) Work from Home - new demands on home-based working related furniture.

3. Pricing: Over-valued or Under-valued.

Normally it depends on your desired ROI (return of investment), and whether you can grab the opportunity when Mr Market over-reacts with the so-called "news".

For me, as long as

(a) dividend return is predictable and more than fixed deposit, or

(b) the potential capital gain is more than 20-50% (e.g. PE is only 5).

Anyway, investment depends on intuitive and previous experiences as well. Thus, these checklist or guidance is a just tool for me to make a more consistent and holistic decision to increase the rate of success.

That's all for today. More fascinating articles and sharing will be updated in Xaivier Blog. So, you are welcome to subscribe our feed to receive our weekly updates

Written by: Xaivier Chia

P/S: The above sharing is solely based on personal insight and information that believed to be reliable. Your valuable feedback are very welcome.

Good Stock Market strategies for Retail Investors: Long Term investment and Portfolio Investment.

noreply@blogger.com (Xaivier Chia) — Wed, 16 Dec 2020 19:24:00 -0800

As retail investors, we have two main advantages to implement two sustainable strategies i.e. long term investment and portfolio investment.

Long term investment
- Zero maintenance. You don't need to pay any fee for holding shares in long run. If you are having other investment e.g. properties, and investment fund.
- Free reading materials - Each listed companies need to make announcement in terms of quarter report, annual report, etc. This materials help us to have a better understand about the current business conditions.

- Improve our Financial Intelligence - If a good business that is managed by a well trained experienced team is only able to achieve 10% return annually, then we can easily spot the trick or scam when a person claimed that he/she can get 25% monthly.

Portfolio investment
- Diversify our wealth in different sectors. e.g. banking, entertainment, manufacturing, plantation, utilities in the same time. Unlike other commitment e.g. career and business - we need to be very focus so that we can excel in the fields. For investment, especially retail investors, we can make better decision if we understand different types of business from investors' perspectives.

p/s: When I was asked about whether I still invest in stock market, my answer is always the same - stock market is just a place that has plenty of opportunities and traps for me to train myself about how is life, and to understand how crazy people are in pursuing unlimited money with their limited life.

That's all for today. More fascinating articles and sharing will be updated weekly in Xaivier Blog. So, you are welcome to subscribe our feed to receive our weekly updates

Written by: Xaivier Chia

P/S: The above sharing is solely based on personal insight and information that believed to be reliable. Your valuable feedback are very welcome.

Stock Market performance: 9 months after Covid-19

noreply@blogger.com (Xaivier Chia) — Wed, 2 Dec 2020 19:23:00 -0800

Stock Market is returned back to pre-Covid-19 after around one year of Covid-19. For those who insisted to having company shares via stock market during the beginning of this challenging period is definitely enjoying the fruits now.

The price of many stocks are raising toward the pre-Covid-19 level - due to the news of vaccine development despite the condition of Covid-19 appears uncontrollable. Thus, to survive in stock market, we must always prepare for the worst case when people are too optimistic.

If you get a recipe to identify a stock with 99% success rate in earning money, you should not put all money in based on that recipe too. This is because even you earn money for N times, the profits will be destroyed in seconds if you just lost the profit in the N+1 times.

That's why there are always lots of new "Stock God" come out and disappear in stock market.

Thus, aiming for steady return is wiser and healthier in the long run, mentally and physically.

As retail investors, we have two main advantages to implement two sustainable strategies i.e. long term investment and portfolio investment. I will share about these in the coming posts.

That's all for today. More fascinating articles and sharing will be updated weekly* in Xaivier Blog. So, you are welcome to subscribe our feed to receive our weekly updates

Written by: Xaivier Chia

P/S: The above sharing is solely based on personal insight and information that believed to be reliable. Your valuable feedback are very welcome.

Covid-19, Lockdown, its Challenges and Opportunities, List of completed tasks

noreply@blogger.com (Xaivier Chia) — Fri, 7 Aug 2020 05:41:00 -0700

Covid-19 froze our daily routine (a.k.a. lockdown). Suddenly, I had more time with my family than last few years in one roof.

Challenge 1 - No excuse but just take care the children.

Opportunity 1 - Having strong relationship with them and healthier (lost weight 4kg).

Challenge 2 - No more face-to-face interaction with co-workers.

Opportunity 2 - More time to focus on individual tasks; Online meeting to save time; Everything goes online with no excuse for everyone.

Challenge 3 - Stock market crashed, significant paper lost.
Opportunity 3 - More undervalued companies were available for long term investment to provide attractive cash flow in the future.

Challenge 4 - Less opportunities to interact with other.

Opportunity 4 - More time to really understand what are the important things that I really want.

I am lucky. I can complete many tasks online without physically interact with other (e.g. writing this blog). With the readiness of basic facilities e.g. internet, laptop, and smartphone, and a positive mindset, I am going to complete more tasks that have been pending in last few years.

List of things that I have deeper understanding -

"Don't trade our limited life to unlimited money"

"Health and safety first"

"Everything is about Sustainability. If something appears to be unsustainable, it is better to give-up it now"

That's all for today. More fascinating articles and sharing will be updated weekly in Xaivier Blog. So, you are welcome to subscribe our feed to receive our weekly updates

Written by: Xaivier Chia

P/S: The above sharing is solely based on personal insight and information that believed to be reliable. Your valuable feedback are very welcome.

Re-starting by the Journey of Writing - Motivation and Planning

noreply@blogger.com (Xaivier Chia) — Thu, 30 Jul 2020 20:57:00 -0700

This blog has been stopped since 2015 due to personal commitment in my professional development and family. Lots of changes during the last 5 years, from single to a small family, from an active member to an observer, from zero liability to many liability, etc. Luckily, everything is toward a positive and desired direction.

Motivation -
1. Life is always full of challenging and excitement. However, writing always helps me to structure my thought and to deeper understand myself through this kind of self-reflection.
2. I learn lots from other writers' sharing. Perhaps, it is time for me to continue to write down my experiences and thought that maybe helpful to someone somewhere in this earth.

Planning -
1. I aim to continue to record my thought development in Investment and Life - particularly from philosophy perspectives.
2. I will limit each post in 1-3 paragraphs so it's easier to be digested instantly.
3. Weekly update to summarize what was happened in the week.

p/s: While writing this post, Covid-19 is getting stable in my country. Everyone is regularly used to the "new norm". Stay safe and healthy.

That's all for today. More fascinating articles and sharing will be updated weekly in Xaivier Blog. So, you are welcome to subscribe our feed to receive our weekly updates

Written by: Xaivier Chia

P/S: The above sharing is solely based on personal insight and information that believed to be reliable. Your valuable feedback are very welcome.

The Ability to Predict the Future Trend of Stock Market

noreply@blogger.com (Xaivier Chia) — Fri, 11 Dec 2015 05:31:00 -0800

The future trend of stock market is almost unpredictable. Even there is a potential to predict the future trend of stock market, the prediction is only valid for a very short period of time.

It is because in order to predict the future, we need to gather all related information in a very short period of time, and then we need to analyse these substantial information correctly within a very short period of time.

Even you can complete this impossible mission using advanced technology or supernatural power, the prediction result will be expired in a second or milliseconds. This is simply because there are abundant of information will appear in a second. Consequently, some of the information that you have used for the prediction is no longer valid.

In short, it is worthless for us to spend abundant of our previous time (and even money) to learn and to practise this kind of ability - to predict the future. Besides, without this kind of predictive ability, we still can obtain attractive return from stock market by buying a good business with discounted price and then owning the good business in a long run.

That's all for today from Xaivier Blog.

Written by: Xaivier Chia

P/S: The above sharing is solely based on personal insight and information that believed to be reliable. Your valuable feedback are very welcome.

Seed to Plant - Controllable Versus Uncontrollable Factors

noreply@blogger.com (Xaivier Chia) — Fri, 24 Jul 2015 01:48:00 -0700

When we plant a seed into soil. There are three possible outcomes - Nothing will come out; Expected plant is grown; and unexpected plant is grown. The reasons behind could be mainly due to two factors: our personal technical mistakes (e.g. our ignorance or careless); and environmental issues (e.g. weather). The former can be classified as controllable; while the latter can be categorized as uncontrollable. In this post, we are going to discuss a way to achieve what we want via differentiating these Controllable and Uncontrollable Factors.

Free Presentation Tools via Your Smartphone - Wireless Microphone and powerpoint controller - offline

noreply@blogger.com (Xaivier Chia) — Fri, 17 Jul 2015 21:56:00 -0700

Due to the intensive development of smartphone applications, we can use our smartphone as a multipurpose device. Its application can be from as simple as a torch or a calculator, to a medical diagnosis device. In this post, I am going to share with you a way to use your smartphone as an effective presentation tool, i.e. a wireless microphone and controller, for your business or presentation. These tools do not require an internet connect, but you need to use your laptop as a hotspot for your smartphone.

MALAYSIA STEEL WORKS (KL) BHD [S] (Masteel, 5098) – Delay Audited Financial Statement (AFS) - Case Study

noreply@blogger.com (Xaivier Chia) — Thu, 7 May 2015 20:47:00 -0700

Latest Quarterly Summary: Future is going to be better.

From its latest quarterly report (2014 Q4), MALAYSIA STEEL WORKS (KL) BHD [S] (Masteel, 5098)appears to be very optimistic about the future as follows:

Prospects

The Company is expected to increase its bar sales volume by 10% for the first half of the year and upon the commissioning of its new rolling mill during the second quarter, for the second half the year, it is anticipated to sell an additional 100,000 mt of high tensile steel bars.

The margin is expected to improve due to the following factors:

1) the continued decline in scrap prices.

2) the reduction in electricity tariff of 5.8% from March till June 2015.

3) higher levels of economies of scale due to higher volume of production .

4) the suspension of natural gas price revision by the Government.

5) due to the stabilizing international iron ore prices, the prices of Chinese steel imports are expected to bottom out.

The Company is expected to perform well in the following quarters based on prevailing business conditions.

The impending impositions of goods services tax (GST) on the Company’s products are not expected to have any material impact on the sales volume of the Company.

Shareholding Analysis: Something opposite

According to 2013 Annual Report, Dato’ Sri Tai Hean Leng, Managing Director and CEO of Malaysia Steel Works (KL) Bhd had around 4million Masteel shares.

However, the Managing Director disposed 4.1 Million shares on 30 Dec 2014 as that stated in Bursa Malaysia at a price of RM0.80 only. In other words, the Managing Director already disposed all the shares that directly held by him and obtained around RM3.28million cash.

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/3491377

Question: Why the Managing Director who was so confident with Masteel’s future sold 4million shares?

Investment Lesson from Misjudgment on Market Trend in 2014~2015: Review – MALAYSIAN BULK CARRIERS BERHAD (5077)

noreply@blogger.com (Xaivier Chia) — Mon, 4 May 2015 03:22:00 -0700

By forecasting Market Trend, investors can position their portfolio accordingly to embrace the coming profits from the coming Market Trend. Again, everything is always easier said than done. After the sharing of Investment Lessons from Unpredictable Events in 2014~2015: PJ DEVELOPMENT HOLDINGS BERHAD(1945), in this post, I am going to share with you about my misjudgment on Market Trend in 2014~2015 - MALAYSIAN BULK CARRIERS BERHAD (5077).

Summary: MALAYSIAN BULK CARRIERS BERHAD (5077) – Bought Average RM1.55, SOLD Average RM1.38, Average Loss ~12%

Investment Lessons from Unpredictable Events in 2014~2015: PJ DEVELOPMENT HOLDINGS BERHAD (1945)

noreply@blogger.com (Xaivier Chia) — Sun, 3 May 2015 01:19:00 -0700

As an investor, even though my portfolio of around 15 companies has achieved a positive double digit return in the last five years, I must admit that few of the 15 companies did bring some losses. Since one of ways to enhance our investment skills and knowledge is through revision, I am going to share my experiences from these losses in my portfolio in last 12 months - MALAYSIAN BULK CARRIERS BERHAD (5077) and PJ DEVELOPMENT HOLDINGS BERHAD (1945). Hopefully, this record can remind me those mistakes from time to time.

Summary: PJ DEVELOPMENT HOLDINGS BERHAD (1945) – Warrant Bought RM0.98, SOLD RM0.77, Loss ~23%

Revision: Investment Strategy - GST, Ringgit Depreciation, & Oil Price Drop

noreply@blogger.com (Xaivier Chia) — Sun, 22 Mar 2015 20:05:00 -0700

As an investor in Malaysia, the recent three factors that may affect my investment decision are - GST implementation, Ringgit depreciation, and oil price drop. In this post, I am going to summarize my opinion, particularly, trying to figure out potential opportunity that may once again maintain or even improve my investment return in the next 1~3 years.

Before that, I would like to re-highlight that every decision or view that stated here is based on present available data and information. If an unforeseen circumstance or event happens, all the strategies and decision (especially for those mid- or long- term plan) must be revised timely to reduce (or hopefully avoid) losses.

3 Methods to Evaluate Market Price of Goods and Services

noreply@blogger.com (Xaivier Chia) — Fri, 13 Jun 2014 03:04:00 -0700

The determination of the competitive market price of Goods and Services is vital for us to optimize our hard earned money. In this post, I summary three different methods that we can use to evaluate market prices of Goods and Services.

1. Survey

Survey may be the most common method we use to evaluate the price of goods and services.

To implement survey properly, we need to gather sufficient information that come from different independent reliable resources. Otherwise, we may be misled by the bias information that we have eventually.

Claim Application for Car Accidant: Etiqa Insurance Review

noreply@blogger.com (Xaivier Chia) — Fri, 25 Apr 2014 19:30:00 -0700

Having a car or vehicle insurance is compulsory for us to renew road tax annually and bring our vehicle on road. This requirement is essential to provide certain "protection" for all road users.

Recently, an unfortunate event occurred in my life - my car "accidentally kissed" other car. In this post, I am going to summarize my experience of making a claim from my insurer (i.e. Etiqa).

1. Calm down

When unfortunate event has happened, the first step is to be calm down, and do not try to blame other. Then, please check whether anyone has been injured. If it is serious, then call for medicate assistance from nearest hospital.

Share Buy-Back Authority: A Review

noreply@blogger.com (Xaivier Chia) — Fri, 18 Apr 2014 08:03:00 -0700

Annually, listed companies need to seek their shareholders' agreement to renew their authority to buy-back their shares from the market. This authority can be considered as an additional option for the company to use its surplus financial resources.

All things contain both positive and negative effects. Thus, in this post, I am going to summarise the advantages and disadvantages of this financial tool in the following aspects.

Trump - Think like a billionaire: A Summary & Insight

noreply@blogger.com (Xaivier Chia) — Fri, 11 Apr 2014 23:55:00 -0700

Donald John Trump, Sr. (born June 14, 1946) is an American business magnate, investor, television personality and author. He is the chairman and president of The Trump Organization and the founder of Trump Entertainment Resorts. (source: wiki)

After taking a couple of hours enjoying this great sharing written by Donald John Trump, I do find lots of interesting insights shared by the Author. In this post, I summary few of them as a record for me to refresh my memory about the sharing.

The Lessons I have Learnt from Stock Market Investment: Review, Revise, Forward Looking

noreply@blogger.com (Xaivier Chia) — Fri, 4 Apr 2014 19:42:00 -0700

Any new counter or short-listed or good company for investment? This is probably the most annoying question I have been asked frequently. This is because I do have more than 20 short-listed companies in my watch list. Quite often, when I have shared my positive opinion about few of them with my friends, immediately, they are going to put lots of their capital on one or two of the mentioned. Luckily, so far, they did earn quite lots of money from the 'tips'. However, during this bull market, I really do not dare to share my points of view with them anymore for three reasons.

Four Basic Ways to Earn Money

noreply@blogger.com (Xaivier Chia) — Fri, 28 Mar 2014 19:20:00 -0700

In order to survive in this world, we need to earn sufficient money that can support our daily basis. Money or cash or asset is a tool that stores or accumulates the value that we have created to other. In other words, the more value we have created, the more money we will earn. In this post, I would like to present four basic ways to create money (value).

1. Use the basic function of our body

-We can use our body energy to help other to move things from one place to another.
-We can use our eyes to help other to take care their goods or assets.
-We can use our appearance to help other to promote their goods or services.

This kind of way to earn money is mainly using our body function.