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		<title>Daily forex forecast 30/6/2010</title>
		<link>http://www.xen-forex.com/blog/2010/06/daily-forex-forecast-3062010/</link>
		<comments>http://www.xen-forex.com/blog/2010/06/daily-forex-forecast-3062010/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 29 Jun 2010 22:50:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Currency trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Exchange rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forex]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.xen-forex.com/blog/?p=92</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[From IBTimesFX:
:: Australian  Dollar: The Aussie sold off in Asia yesterday following some  weaker than expected Japanese data and general risk aversion. After  opening the session above the 87 cent handle support gave way in  afternoon exchange with the AUD/USD entering offshore on its lows at  0.8625. Fear that some [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>From <a href="http://uk.ibtimes.com/articles/20100629/daily-forex-forecast-302010.htm">IBTimesFX</a>:</p>
<p>:: <strong>Australian  Dollar:</strong> The Aussie sold off in Asia yesterday following some  weaker than expected Japanese data and general risk aversion. After  opening the session above the 87 cent handle support gave way in  afternoon exchange with the AUD/USD entering offshore on its lows at  0.8625. Fear that some European banks may have to roll over debt  obligations with the ECB increased perceived risk on equities,  commodities and the AUD with the local currency collapsing quickly to  exchange below 85 cents to open this morning at 0.8480. The AUD/USD is  likely to be sensitive to any negative news with today’s HIA New Home  Sales data to come under the microscope more than what it would normally  in light of current market conditions.</p>
<div id="bodytext2">
<p>- We expect a  range today in the AUD/USD rate of	0.8420	to	0.8520</p>
<p>:: <strong>Great Britain Pound:</strong> In what can be  considered a strong performance overnight the Cable held relatively firm  to open this morning relatively unchanged from yesterday’s Asian close  at 1.5060. Despite a massive move into the Greenback against most majors  Pound Sterling stuck solid with some support coming from stronger than  expected lending and credit data released overnight. It will be  interesting to see if it can remain supported over the next 24 hours  with several key U.K and European releases expected to have the  important 1.5 level tested at some point. A massive drop in the  Australian dollar overnight sees the GBP/AUD cross rate open  substantially higher at 1.775 this morning, 2.5% higher than the same  time yesterday.</p>
<p>- We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of	1.7625	to	 1.7800</p>
<p>:: <strong>New Zealand Dollar: </strong>A large 9.6% drop in  N.Z Building permits during the month of May instigated some early  morning selling in the Kiwi dollar yesterday, a move that was  exacerbated by negative sentiment in Japan, Europe and the U.S. After  exchanging around 0.7080 prior to the announcement the NZD/USD opens  this morning at 0.6920 with concerns about European debt and U.S  Consumer Confidence triggering some large selling. Despite the move  lower on NZD/USD the Kiwi dollar strengthened against the Aussie dollar  putting the AUD/NZD cross rate lower this morning at 1.2250.</p>
<p>- We expect a range today in the NZD/USD rate of	0.6885	to	 0.6985</p>
<p>::<strong> Majors:</strong> Japanese economic data released  yesterday disappointed the market with the unemployment rate increasing  to 5.2% and Industrial Production falling 0.1% compared to the previous  months 1.3% rise. On a positive note however the job to applicant ratio  increased indicating there was an increase in positions available hence  strengthening the JPY against the USD in local trade to finish in Asia  at 88.80. EUR/USD was sold off during European trade as the July 1  deadline for bank loan repayments to the ECB, a total of 442 billion  EUR, looms near. With the market nervous that some banks may not be in a  position to repay and will ask for loans to be rolled over risk  aversion drove the Euro and “riskier assets” lower. The flight to safety  saw EUR/USD hit a low of 1.2150 and USD/JPY 88.25 before both bounced  back slightly during the North American afternoon to open this morning  in Asia at 1.2180 and 88.55 respectively. Adding to the fears was a much  lower than forecast U.S consumer confidence reading with the sentiment  survey dropping from 62.7 to 52.9 in June, well below economist  forecasts for only a moderate adjustment to 62.5. With U.S consumers  less confident about the outlook for employment and wages the Dow Jones  Industrial Average closed down 2.65% after having at one stage being  3.3% in the red. Heading into this evenings ECB announcement currency  markets will remain volatile with 1.2150 support on EUR/USD likely to be  tested once again.</p>
<p>:: Data Releases:</p>
<p>AUD: May HIA New Home Sales, Jun DEWR  Skilled Vacancies &amp; May Private Sector Credit</p>
<p>NZD: No Data  Expected Today</p>
<p>USD: Jun ADP Employment Change, Jun Chicago PMI  &amp; Fedspeak</p>
<p>GBP: Jun GfK Consumer Confidence, Jun Nationwide  House Prices, &amp; Q1 GDP</p>
<p>EUR: Jun German Unemployment Change,  Jun Eurozone CPI Estimate &amp; Trichet Speach</p>
<p>JPY: May Housing  Starts &amp; May Construction Orders</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://uk.ibtimes.com/articles/20100629/daily-forex-forecast-302010.htm">Link</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
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		<title>WORLD FOREX: Dollar, Yen Gain As Investors Worry Growth Is Slipping</title>
		<link>http://www.xen-forex.com/blog/2010/06/world-forex-dollar-yen-gain-as-investors-worry-growth-is-slipping/</link>
		<comments>http://www.xen-forex.com/blog/2010/06/world-forex-dollar-yen-gain-as-investors-worry-growth-is-slipping/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 29 Jun 2010 22:48:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Currency trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Exchange rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forex]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.xen-forex.com/blog/?p=90</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[By Bradley Davis    Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)&#8211;The dollar and yen posted broad gains Tuesday as investors shunned assets closely tied to growth after disappointing economic data led to concern the global recovery could be losing steam.
The safe-haven yen benefited most from investors unwinding bets on higher-yielding assets, with the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>By Bradley Davis    Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES</p>
<p>NEW YORK (Dow Jones)&#8211;The dollar and yen posted broad gains Tuesday as investors shunned assets closely tied to growth after disappointing economic data led to concern the global recovery could be losing steam.</p>
<p>The safe-haven yen benefited most from investors unwinding bets on higher-yielding assets, with the euro plummeting to its lowest level against the Japanese currency since November 2001. Investors also ditched the Australian and New Zealand dollars, whose commodity-backed economies are closely tied to global growth. Both dropped more than 2% against the greenback.</p>
<p>&#8220;Fear, fear and more fear has driven&#8221; investors out of riskier assets, said Dan Cook, senior market analyst at IG Markets in Chicago.</p>
<p>News that an indicator of Chinese growth was not as strong as originally reported sparked initial worry over global growth prospects after a private group issued a correction to its data. A steep decline in U.S. consumer confidence kept investor sentiment poor.</p>
<p>&#8220;The latest string of data that we&#8217;ve seen out of most major economies, particularly in the U.S., has pointed to a notable loss of momentum in the recovery,&#8221; said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange in Washington. That has benefited the dollar, yen and Swiss franc, which soared Tuesday to a record high against the euro.</p>
<p>Late Tuesday, the euro was at $1.2196 from $1.2276 late Monday, according to EBS via CQG. The dollar was at Y88.54 from Y89.41, while the euro was at Y107.97 from Y109.78. The U.K. pound was at $1.5074 from $1.5105. The dollar was at CHF1.0808 from CHF1.0872.</p>
<p>The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, was at 86.105 from 85.701.</p>
<p>To see the euro&#8217;s performance against the yen, please see:</p>
<p>http://dowjoneswebservices.com/chart/view/4197</p>
<p>The flight to safety was reflected across markets, with 10-year U.S. Treasury yields dropping below 3% to the lowest level since April 2009 and stocks slumping. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down more than 2.5% by late afternoon.</p>
<p>The global flight to safety began with a correction to the Conference Board&#8217;s leading economic indicator for China. The private research group said Chinese leading indicator rose only 0.3% in April, correcting a previous reading of a 1.7% increase, and a sharp slowdown from March&#8217;s 1.2% rise.</p>
<p>A sharp drop in U.S. consumer confidence in June exacerbated the shift into safe assets. Consumer concerns over the sustainability of economic recovery and the outlook for jobs brought the closely watched indicator&#8217;s three-month streak of consecutive gains to an end.</p>
<p>Investors also worried that the euro-zone sovereign debt crisis could spill into the region&#8217;s financial sector as the Thursday deadline approached for banks to repay EUR442 billion in 12-month funding. Analysts expect most of the money to be borrowed again through the ECB&#8217;s one-week and three-month windows.</p>
<p>As the banks roll over the financing from a one-year term to shorter terms, &#8220;the cost these banks pay may add additional stress to the system, and this has investors very nervous,&#8221; Cook said.</p>
<p>Souring investor sentiment extended the Swiss franc&#8217;s record-breaking rally Tuesday, with the euro sinking below CHF1.32, its lowest level in history.</p>
<p>The euro fell to a low of CHF1.3171, according to EBS via CQG, in a continuation of a recent trend that has brought record lows on an almost daily basis. The Swiss currency has benefited for months from a pickup in growth in Switzerland and the country&#8217;s healthy fiscal position, but the move has accelerated since the Swiss National Bank stopped intervening to halt the franc&#8217;s rise. The euro has declined by around 10% against the franc since the start of this year.</p>
<p>With the ICE Dollar Index strengthening, Deutsche Bank&#8217;s PowerShares U.S. Dollar Index Bearish exchange-traded fund was down 0.44% from late Monday, while its PowerShares U.S. Dollar Index Bullish was up 0.48%. The two exchange-traded funds are based on Deutsche Bank currency futures indexes, whose composition mirrors that of the ICE&#8217;s Dollar Index.</p>
<p>-By Bradley Davis, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2654; bradley.davis@dowjones.com</p>
<p>(Katie Martin, Don Curren and Geoffrey T. Smith contributed to this article.)</p>
<ul>
<li> <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100629-711775.html">Link</a></li>
</ul>
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		<title>Germany and France examine ‘two-tier’ euro</title>
		<link>http://www.xen-forex.com/blog/2010/06/germany-and-france-examine-two-tier-euro/</link>
		<comments>http://www.xen-forex.com/blog/2010/06/germany-and-france-examine-two-tier-euro/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 23 Jun 2010 08:12:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[euro]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.xen-forex.com/blog/?p=87</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Germany and France are examining ways of  creating a &#8220;two-tier&#8221; euro system to separate stronger northern European  countries from weaker southern states.

By Alex Spillius in Washington and Bruno Waterfield in Brussels
Published: 7:00AM BST 19 Jun 2010





The creation of a &#8220;super-euro&#8221; zone would  initially include France, Germany, Holland, Austria, Denmark and Finland



A European [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2>Germany and France are examining ways of  creating a &#8220;two-tier&#8221; euro system to separate stronger northern European  countries from weaker southern states.</h2>
<div>
<p>By Alex Spillius in Washington and Bruno Waterfield in Brussels<br />
Published: 7:00AM BST 19 Jun 2010</p>
<p><!-- COMMENTS DISABLED IN SECTION PROPERTIES --></p>
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<div>
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<p><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/telegraph/multimedia/archive/01644/euros_1644157c.jpg" alt="Germany and France examine 'two-tier' euro" /></p>
<div>The creation of a &#8220;super-euro&#8221; zone would  initially include France, Germany, Holland, Austria, Denmark and Finland</div>
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</div>
<div>
<p>A European official has told <em>The Daily  Telegraph </em>the dramatic option was being examined at cabinet level.</p>
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<div>
<p>Senior politicians believe their economies  need to be better protected as they could not cope with another crisis  on a par the one in Greece.</p>
</div>
<p><!-- BEFORE ACI --></p>
<div>
<p>The creation of a &#8220;super-euro&#8221; zone would  initially include France, Germany, Holland, Austria, Denmark and  Finland.</p>
<p>The likes of Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal and even  Ireland would be left in a larger rump mostly Mediterranean grouping.</p>
<p>The  official said French and German officials had first spent months  examining how to exclude poor-performing states from the euro but  decided it was not feasible.</p>
<p>A two-tier monetary system in the  16-member euro zone is being examined as a &#8220;plan B&#8221;.</p>
<p>&#8220;The  philosophy is the stronger countries might need to move away from  countries they can&#8217;t afford to bail-out,&#8221; said the official. &#8220;As a way  of containing the damage, they may have to do something dramatic, though  obviously in the short term implementation is difficult.</p>
<p>&#8220;It&#8217;s an  act of desperation. They are not talking about ideal solutions but the  lesser of evils. Helping Greece could be done relatively cheaply but  Spain they can&#8217;t afford to let fail or bail-out.</p>
<p>&#8220;And putting more  pressure on the people of France and Germany to save other countries is  politically unfeasible.&#8221;</p>
<p>One option, to protect the wealthier  northern European countries and to help indebted southern Europeans,  would be for Germany to lead a group of countries out of the existing  euro into a new single currency alongside the old.</p>
<p>The old euro  would decline sharply against the new German and French dominated  currency but both north and southern Europeans would be protected.</p>
<p>Northern  economies would be protected from debt contagion and southern countries  would be spared the horrors of being thrown out and forced to go it  alone.</p>
<p>Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, has already paid a  political price for forcing the rescue plan on a reluctant public,  losing her majority in the upper house of parliament in a recent  election.</p>
<p>The official pointed out that France held lent £500  billion to Spain and the Germans had lent £335 billion.</p>
<p>Nicolas  Sarkozy, the French president, is understood to have been initially cool  on the idea but has grown so frustrated with Greece and now Spain that  he has allowed officials to explore proposals.</p>
<p>&#8220;He would prefer to  keep the euro in place but if Spain, Italy and Greece are dragging him  down he accepts he may have to cut them loose,&#8221; said the official. &#8220;They  are trying to contain the contagious effect but they don&#8217;t have a  solution yet.&#8221;</p>
<p>The crunch time will come in September, when Spain  has to refinance £67 billion of its foreign debt.</p>
<p>&#8220;If the markets  don&#8217;t buy that will trigger a response by Germany and France,&#8221; said the  official.</p>
<p>Expelling a country from the euro could push the whole  region into a slump because European banks are so exposed to debt in  southern Europe. The consequences for the exiting country would be even  more catastrophic.</p>
<p>&#8220;The euro zone debt crisis has a long way to  run,&#8221; said one senior EU negotiator. &#8220;No one knows where it is going to  end up. Only one thing is sure, the euro zone will change.&#8221;</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/7837874/Germany-and-France-examine-two-tier-euro.html">Link</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
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		<title>WORLD FOREX: Dollar Gains On Euro; Caution Ahead Of FOMC</title>
		<link>http://www.xen-forex.com/blog/2010/06/world-forex-dollar-gains-on-euro-caution-ahead-of-fomc/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 22 Jun 2010 21:09:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Currency trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Exchange rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forex]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[euro]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.xen-forex.com/blog/?p=85</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[By Frances McInnis    Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW  YORK (Dow Jones)&#8211;The dollar rose against the euro Tuesday as optimism  over possible appreciation of the Chinese yuan faded and worries over  the health of Europe&#8217;s financial sector kept market sentiment muted.
The pound rallied against the dollar after Fitch Ratings weighed in [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<pre>By Frances McInnis    Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES</pre>
<p>NEW  YORK (Dow Jones)&#8211;The dollar rose against the euro Tuesday as optimism  over possible appreciation of the Chinese yuan faded and worries over  the health of Europe&#8217;s financial sector kept market sentiment muted.</p>
<p>The pound rallied against the dollar after Fitch Ratings weighed in  favorably on the U.K. government&#8217;s austerity budget, released earlier  Tuesday.</p>
<p>Investors are cautious ahead of Wednesday&#8217;s Federal  Open Market Committee rate announcement, analysts said. Even though  ultra-low rates aren&#8217;t expected to change, the Fed&#8217;s statement will be  scrutinized for any clues as to when monetary policy might tighten.</p>
<p>&#8220;The markets are just waiting and biding their time,&#8221; said Nick  Bennenbroek, head of currency strategy at Wells Fargo in New York.  &#8220;Investors are waiting to see what is said, then they&#8217;ll react,&#8221; keeping  most currencies in a tight range, he added.</p>
<p>Early Tuesday  afternoon, the euro was at $1.2304 from $1.2320 late Monday, according  to EBS via CQG. The dollar was at Y90.58 from Y91.04, while the euro was  at Y111.46 from Y112.15. The U.K. pound was at $1.4848 from 1.4754. The  dollar was at CHF1.1071 from CHF1.1050.</p>
<p>The ICE Dollar Index,  which tracks the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of  currencies, was at 85.887 from 85.953.</p>
<p>Fitch called the U.K.  budget a &#8220;strong statement of intent.&#8221; The U.K. pound gained to its  strongest level of the day against the dollar after Fitch delivered its  statement, which said the budget could strengthen confidence in the  country&#8217;s AAA status.</p>
<p>However, uncertainty about the direction  of the yuan kept the overriding tone cautious. The People&#8217;s Bank of  China set the dollar-yuan central parity rate at 6.7980 earlier Tuesday,  down from 6.8275 Monday, marking the largest single-day change in  recent history. The yuan, however, actually weakened in subsequent  trading, damping some market expectations for a steady march higher for  the yuan.</p>
<p>&#8220;The revaluation of the Chinese yuan appears to have  come in with a bang and certainly its impact is limping out with a  whimper,&#8221; said Andrew Wilkinson, senior market analyst at Interactive  Brokers in Greenwich, Conn.</p>
<p>By allowing the yuan to fall on  Tuesday unexpectedly against the dollar, China&#8217;s central bank appeared  to be trying to temper expectations that the Chinese currency is bound  to rise, conveying the message that currency-policy reform doesn&#8217;t mean  one-way bets are a sure thing. Traders said the day&#8217;s moves added to  uncertainty over the pace and extent of any yuan appreciation in the  months ahead.</p>
<p>The uncertainty tended to benefit the dollar and  yen over the euro as they function as safe-haven currencies whenever  doubt makes traders wary.</p>
<p>Worse-than-expected U.S.  existing-home-sales data for May and sinking U.S. equities also tended  to drive investors to the perceived safety of the dollar and yen.</p>
<p>Fresh worries over the euro-zone sovereign-debt crisis, and the  possibility it will infect the region&#8217;s banking system, also dragged  down investor sentiment after Monday&#8217;s downgrade by Fitch Ratings of  French banking giant BNP Paribas.</p>
<p>The euro dropped to fresh  record lows against the Swiss franc, where it continued to trade in New  York afternoon hours, as investors file into the Swiss currency based on  solidly improving Swiss fundamentals and flee the euro over the  sovereign-debt worries.</p>
<p>The euro was at CHF1.3594 from  CHF1.3695 late Monday after dropping as low as CHF1.3588.</p>
<p>The  Swiss currency&#8217;s long-running rally has accelerated of late, after the  Swiss National Bank last week stepped back from its policy of seeking to  hold it down&#8211;a stance it reiterated Monday.</p>
<p>-By  Frances McInnis, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-3417;  frances.mcinnis@dowjones.com</p>
<p>(Bradley Davis in New York,  Takashi Mochizuki in Tokyo and Katie Martin in London contributed to  this article.)</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100622-710120.html">Link</a></li>
</ul>
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		<title>FOREX-Dollar, euro fall vs yen on yuan doubts, European banks</title>
		<link>http://www.xen-forex.com/blog/2010/06/forex-dollar-euro-fall-vs-yen-on-yuan-doubts-european-banks/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 22 Jun 2010 21:07:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Currency trading]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.xen-forex.com/blog/?p=83</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[* Mixed trading as yen rises, but commodities  gain
* Yuan makes minimal headway  after China pledge
* Swiss franc  extends gains, hits all-time high vs euro
* Sterling volatile, then higher on UK budget  (Recasts, updates prices, adds quote, byline)
By Gertrude  Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK,  June 22 (Reuters) &#8211; The U.S. dollar and [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>* Mixed trading as yen rises, but commodities  gain</p>
<p>* Yuan makes minimal headway  after China pledge</p>
<p>* Swiss franc  extends gains, hits all-time high vs euro</p>
<p>* Sterling volatile, then higher on UK budget  (Recasts, updates prices, adds quote, byline)</p>
<p>By <a href="http://blogs.reuters.com/search/journalist.php?edition=us&amp;n=gertrude.chavez.dreyfuss&amp;">Gertrude  Chavez-Dreyfuss</a></p>
<p>NEW YORK,  June 22 (Reuters) &#8211; The U.S. dollar and euro fell against the yen on Tuesday as investors turned risk-averse amid persistent doubts about China&#8217;s move to make the yuan flexible and renewed worries about European banks&#8217; funding needs.</p>
<p>The Chinese yuan declined against the  dollar given heavy buying of the greenback by state-owned banks, which indicated the People&#8217;s Bank of China was using new strategies to fuel two-way trades and limit the Asian currency&#8217;s gains. See [ID:nTOE65L07G].</p>
<p>&#8220;Dollar/yen is  still reeling from the whole China story. I think the market hasn&#8217;t figured out yet how much China will let the yuan appreciate,&#8221; said Steven Butler, director of FX trading at Scotia Capital in New York.</p>
<p>China said on Monday it will allow the yuan to appreciate gradually, ruling out a one-off revaluation. Analysts said a modest yuan appreciation would do little to significantly reduce China&#8217;s huge trade imbalance with the United States.</p>
<p>Some investors saw less of a boost to the  world economy from China&#8217;s yuan move than previously expected.</p>
<p>&#8220;Overall, I think there is still some risk  aversion in the market, which has caused a bit of yen buying.&#8221;</p>
<p>In early afternoon trading, the dollar was  down 0.5 percent versus the yen to 90.59 <a href="http://www.reuters.com/finance/currencies/quote?srcCurr=JPY&amp;destCurr=USD">JPY=</a>,  while the euro dropped 0.5 percent as well at 111.42 yen EURJPY= but was little changed against the dollar at $1.2303.</p>
<p>The single euro zone currency recovered from the day&#8217;s lows as U.S. equities recouped some of their losses, prompting short-covering in the euro and pushing it above $1.23.</p>
<p>The 25-day rolling correlation between  euro/dollar and the S&amp;P 500 remained at a solid 59 percent on Tuesday, making the currency one of the proxies for risk appetite.</p>
<p>Overall, traders said there were more euro  sellers than buyers as euro zone bank woes returned to the fore after French bank Credit Agricole (CAGR.PA) pushed  back profit targets for its struggling Greek unit Emporiki (CBGr.AT)  on Tuesday and said it will take a 400 million euro ($536.7 million) write-down as Greece fights its debt load. [ID:nLDE65L0NB]</p>
<p>A ratings downgrade of French bank BNP  Paribas by Fitch and S&amp;P&#8217;s announcement on Monday that it had raised estimates for loan losses for Spain&#8217;s banking sector continued to weigh on the euro [ID:nN21250262] and [ID:nLDE65K1TE], analysts said.</p>
<p>&#8220;The Credit Agricole, BNP news has all  brought back into the limelight the likelihood of structural problems in the euro zone,&#8221; said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange Inc in Washington, D.C.</p>
<p>Market participants said the euro would face more losses, but technical analysts said near-term support was seen at $1.2253, a 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the rise from a four-year low around $1.1875 on June 7 to Monday&#8217;s high.</p>
<p>In other currencies, the Swiss franc  extended gains to an all-time high against the euro after the Swiss central bank&#8217;s vice chairman said the bank would not intervene in markets for now. [ID:nLDE65L1LC].</p>
<p>The euro  fell to a low of 1.3588 francs EURCHF=EBS on the EBS platform, with options barriers at both 1.3650 and 1.3600 giving way.</p>
<p>Sterling, meanwhile,  fell to a session low against the dollar <a href="http://www.reuters.com/finance/currencies/quote?srcCurr=GBP&amp;destCurr=USD">GBP=</a> but then recovered to trade 0.7 percent higher on the day at $1.4840, as investors reacted positively to UK Finance Minister George Osborne&#8217;s first budget. [ID:nLAC005736].</p>
<p>&#8220;Clearly, one of  the main drivers is the pound. Once the pound took off, that pushed euro/sterling lower, although that was not enough to pressure euro/dollar as the latter is moving in tandem with equities,&#8221; said Scotia&#8217;s Butler.</p>
<p>&#8220;Gains in the pound were mostly  positioning. Markets were looking for stops above $1.4680 that helped cable a lot.&#8221;</p>
<p>(Additional reporting by <a href="http://blogs.reuters.com/search/journalist.php?edition=us&amp;n=nick.olivari&amp;">Nick  Olivari</a>; Editing by Andrew Hay)</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN2249957020100622">Link</a></li>
</ul>
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		<title>Forex Daily Market Commentary</title>
		<link>http://www.xen-forex.com/blog/2010/06/forex-daily-market-commentary/</link>
		<comments>http://www.xen-forex.com/blog/2010/06/forex-daily-market-commentary/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 22 Jun 2010 21:05:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Currency trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Exchange rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forex]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[euro]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.xen-forex.com/blog/?p=81</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[From CountingPips.com
By GCI Forex Research
Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)
 €
The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single  currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2250 level and was capped around  the $1.2355 level.  European sovereign debt concerns were back at the  forefront today and these led to [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>From <a href="http://countingpips.com/fx/2010/06/22/forex-daily-market-commentary-80/">CountingPips.com</a></p>
<p><strong>By GCI Forex Research</strong></p>
<p><strong>Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)</strong></p>
<p><strong> €</strong></p>
<p>The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single  currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2250 level and was capped around  the $1.2355 level.  European sovereign debt concerns were back at the  forefront today and these led to a weaker common currency.  European  Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Rehn reported “Contrary  to what some people argue, Europe is not suffocating growth by this  strategy of fiscal consolidation. What we are doing is putting our  fiscal houses in order in a gradual, differentiated way: faster where  the doubts about fiscal sustainability have been biggest, and slower  elsewhere.”  There is talk that the U.S. and Europe are at odds over a  coordinated economic policy.  The former is said to favour higher levels  of deficit spending to stimulate economic growth while the latter is  said to support reduced fiscal spending and would be comfortable with  reduced economic output.  The European Union is currently evaluating  sanctions for “inadequate debt trajectory” and may consider a tax on  bond issues by highly-indebted countries.  Eurogroup Chairman Juncker  reported the economic recovery “remains fragile and loaded with risks.”   The common currency’s standing in many central banks’ reserve  portfolios is diminishing, a reflection of the currency’s recent  volatility and the eurozone’s significant debt woes.  German Chancellor  Merkel reiterested Germany wants a stable euro and an independent  European Central Bank.  European Central Bank member Ordonez said Bank  of Spain will publish banks’ stress test results as soon as possible.   Data released in the eurozone today saw the EMU-16 April current account  print at -€5.1 billion, down from the revised prior reading of +€1.5  billion, while EMU-16 June consumer confidence improved to -17.  German  data saw the June Ifo business climate indicator improve to 101.8 while  the expectations sub-index receded to 102.4.  In U.S. news, May existing  home sales tumbled 2.2% m/m from an upwardly revised 8.0% in April to  an annualized 5.66 million units, a surprise decrease.  The April house  price index climbed 0.8% and the June Richmond Fed manufacturing index  fell back to +23 from the prior reading of +26.  Most dealers believe  the Federal Open Market Committee will keep interest its federal funds  rate target unchanged at 0.25% tomorrow when its monetary policy  decision is announced.  The Fed may also retain its “extended period”  rhetoric to describe the ongoing accommodation of monetary policy.  Euro  offers are cited around the US$ 1.2570 level.</p>
<p><strong>¥/ CNY</strong></p>
<p>The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback  tested bids around the ¥90.50 level and was capped around the ¥91.10  level.  Traders pushed the yen higher across the board, one day after  the yen came off following China’s announcement that it would be  liberalizing its yuan exchange rate policy.  Moody’s today affirmed its  AA2 rating on Japan and maintained its stable outlook on the country.   Yields on 10-year Japanese government bonds fell to 1.185%, their lowest  level since 5 January 2009.  There is some speculation the government  plans to nearly double its growth projection for the current fiscal year  to 2.6% following January’s estimate of 1.4%.  Notably, Japan’s economy  contracted 2.0% during its last fiscal year and 3.7% the preceding  fiscal year.  The government is expected to release new growth estimates  as early as tomorrow.  BoJ will soon release its June quarterly survey  of consumer sentiment and it is expected to evidence a fifth consecutive  quarter of improved confidence.  Also, big firms are expected to expand  capital spending by 4.9% this fiscal year.  Data released in Japan  overnight saw May supermarket sales off 5.3% y/y.  The Nikkei 225 stock  index lost 1.22% to close at ¥10,112.89.  The euro moved lower vis-à-vis  the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥111.05 level and  was capped around the ¥112.45 level.  The British pound moved higher  vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥134.75 level  while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-à-vis the yen and tested offers  around the ¥82.20 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar appreciated  vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8130 in the  over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.7969.  Traders booked profits on  previous short dollar positions after China’s announcement that it would  end its two-year U.S. dollar peg ahead of this week’s Group of Twenty  summit in Toronto.  People’s Bank of China noted it will prevent  “excessive” exchange rate movements.  Today’s CNY gains were the largest  since July 2005 when China revalued the yuan.  Notably, the  twelve-month non-deliverable yuan forward rose 1.1% to 6.6425 and this  implies traders are speculating on a 2.3% yuan appreciation.  People’s  Bank of China reported a stronger yuan will help curb inflation and  focus investment on service industries from export manufacturing  industries.  Most dealers expect the appreciation will be relatively  gradual with some forecasts calling for about a 4-5% appreciation this  year and around a similar amount next year.  During the past two years,  Chinese monetary authorities bought dollars to prevent the yuan from  strengthening too much.  The CNY appreciation some 21% during the three  years after China introduced its managed float against a basket of  currencies in July 2005.  The yuan has jumped some 16% vis-à-vis the  euro this year and that may temper the yuan’s upside.  PBoC is estimated  to have accumulated some US$ 2.4 trillion in foreign reserves while  intervening in the currency markets.  May industrial profits data will  be released on 24 June.</p>
<p><strong>£</strong></p>
<p>The British pound appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as  cable tested offers around the US$ 1.4855 level and was supported around  the US$ 1.4685 level.  Chancellor of the Exchequer Osborne announced  the U.K. will raise more than £2 billion per year by taxing banks that  have risky balance sheets.  Both Germany and France are expected to  follow suit with a similar levy.  Osborne’s Budget was presented today  and the government is now forecasting economic growth of about 2.3% in  2011.  Also, the U.K. value-added tax was increased to 20% from 17.5%, a  policy shift expected to add an additional £13 billion per year in  revenue.  Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.4620 level.  The euro  depreciated vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested  bids around the £0.8275 level and was capped around the £0.8365 level.</p>
<p><strong>CHF</strong></p>
<p>The Swiss franc appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the  greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.1035 level and was capped around  the CHF 1.1120 level.  Data released in Switzerland today saw the May  trade balance decline sharply to CHF 820 million from the  upwardly-revised April total of CHF 2.06 billion.  This decline reflects  the impact of the strong franc and the limited success Swiss National  Bank has had in blunting the impact of the stronger franc through  euro-buying intervention.  SNB member Jordan said deflation risks have  largely gone away and said there is currently no need for intervention.   Swiss National Bank yesterday reported that its foreign currency  investments rose to CHF 239 billion in May from CHF 153.6 billion in  April, indicative of the significant amount of franc-selling  intervention the central bank has been conducting to protect the Swiss  export sector.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.1470  level.  The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the single  currency tested bids around the CHF 1.3585 level while the British pound  moved lower vis-à-vis the Swiss franc and tested bids around the CHF  1.6295 level.</p>
<p><em><strong>Forex Daily   Market Commentary</strong></em> <strong><em>provided                                                  by</em></strong> <strong><a href="http://gcitrading.com/" target="_blank"><strong>GCI   Financial                                 Ltd</strong></a>.</strong></p>
<p>GCI Financial Ltd (”GCI”) is a regulated securities and commodities                                                  trading firm,  specializing    in        online         Foreign          Exchange             (”Forex”)                       brokerage.   GCI     executes        billions     of     dollars     per              month in      foreign                       exchange         transactions      alone. In         addition  to            Forex, GCI            is a  primary                   market     maker  in         Contracts    for                 Difference   (”CFDs”)      on         shares,    indices         and              futures,        and         offers one   of      the    fastest           growing   online    CFD              trading                      services.   GCI    has    over   10,000       clients            worldwide,         including                    individual              traders,         institutions,     and    money         managers.    GCI                   provides     an        advanced,          secure,    and                comprehensive    online               trading          system.     Client     funds   are            insured          and   held  in  a                    separate    customer    account.     In           addition,  GCI                     Financial     Ltd              maintains Net    Capital     in      excess   of              minimum       regulatory                        requirements.</p>
<p>DISCLAIMER: GCI’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for                                                  informational purposes only. The          information           contained    in       these         reports                       is    gathered        from  reputable   news          sources   and       is   not        intended     to         be            U.S.ed      as           investment   advice.    GCI     assumes      no               responsibility       or               liability       from     gains    or          losses      incurred   by       the      information             herein               contained.</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://countingpips.com/fx/2010/06/22/forex-daily-market-commentary-80/">Link</a></li>
</ul>
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		<title>S Korea Won Down Late On Weak Yuan, Forex Regulation Concerns</title>
		<link>http://www.xen-forex.com/blog/2010/06/s-korea-won-down-late-on-weak-yuan-forex-regulation-concerns/</link>
		<comments>http://www.xen-forex.com/blog/2010/06/s-korea-won-down-late-on-weak-yuan-forex-regulation-concerns/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 22 Jun 2010 08:55:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.xen-forex.com/blog/?p=79</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[SEOUL (Dow Jones)&#8211;The South Korean won was lower late Tuesday as  an unexpected fall in the yuan and concerns of further limits on foreign  exchange forward trading weighed.
Sentiment for Asian  currencies in general got a lift early in the day after China lowered  the dollar-yuan central parity to CNY6.7980 from Monday&#8217;s [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>SEOUL (Dow Jones)&#8211;The South Korean won was lower late Tuesday as  an unexpected fall in the yuan and concerns of further limits on foreign  exchange forward trading weighed.</p>
<p>Sentiment for Asian  currencies in general got a lift early in the day after China lowered  the dollar-yuan central parity to CNY6.7980 from Monday&#8217;s CNY6.8275,  setting the stage for the yuan to continue to rise after a strong finish  Monday. But the Chinese currency reversed course and weakened, with  traders reporting heavy dollar buying by several Chinese banks. At 0543  GMT, the dollar was trading at CNY6.8200 in the over-the-counter market.</p>
<p>&#8220;Still, China did make a move. And I think it&#8217;s appropriate to  think that the latest move indicates China will allow its currency to  appreciate, albeit gradually,&#8221; which will likely help the won, said a  foreign bank trader.</p>
<p>With the recent breach of the key KRW1,190  support, many expect the dollar to resume its downtrend against the won  in tandem with a modest economic recovery in Asia&#8217;s fourth-largest  economy.</p>
<p>&#8220;Some will likely be biased to enter dollar-shorts in  the mid-to-upper-KRW1,180s area,&#8221; on any rebound in the dollar, said a  local bank trader.</p>
<p>Comments from a senior finance ministry  official that the government aims to gradually reduce the ceiling on  foreign exchange forward transactions by foreign banks operating in the  country to match that for local banks also weighed on the won as this  could mean tighter dollar liquidity in the system.</p>
<p>Cross  currency swap rates fell following the news, with the one-year swap rate  down at 1.175% late in Asia compared with 1.275% Monday. A lower cross  currency swap rate means it is more expensive to borrow dollars in  exchange for the won.</p>
<p>The shock from a reduction in forward  transaction limits for foreign banks probably won&#8217;t be as large as when  the government earlier this month unveiled comprehensive measures to  ease the adverse impact of rapid capital flows on the local economy,  said Woori Futures analyst Byeon Ji-young.</p>
<p>Domestic treasury  bonds ended mixed after coming off intraday lows on bargain hunting  following recent sharp falls. September futures ended down six ticks  after losing as much as 20 ticks intraday.</p>
<p>Bonds initially fell  early in the day on concerns that further limits on foreign exchange  forward trading could eat away at foreign appetite for bonds, which is  already weak amid lingering rate hike fears.</p>
<p>A local securities  firm trader said the bond market is turning bearish, adding that the  three-year yield will likely hit the 4.00% level.</p>
<p>-By Min-Jeong Lee, Dow Jones Newswires; 822-3700-1908;  min-jeong.lee@dowjones.com</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100622-701797.html?mod=rss_Currencies">Link</a></li>
</ul>
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		<title>Forex – GBP/USD rises as Osborne set to unveil austerity budget</title>
		<link>http://www.xen-forex.com/blog/2010/06/forex-gbpusd-rises-as-osborne-set-to-unveil-austerity-budget/</link>
		<comments>http://www.xen-forex.com/blog/2010/06/forex-gbpusd-rises-as-osborne-set-to-unveil-austerity-budget/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 22 Jun 2010 08:53:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Currency trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Exchange rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forex]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.xen-forex.com/blog/?p=77</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Forex Pros – The pound rose against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, clawing back up from a 3-day low as the U.K. chancellor of the exchequer, George Osborne, was set to unveil an emergency austerity budget.
GBP/USD gained 0.04% to hit 1.4764 during late Asian trade, after rising from 1.4724, the pair&#8217;s lowest since last Thursday.
Cable [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Forex Pros – The pound rose against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, clawing back up from a 3-day low as the U.K. chancellor of the exchequer, George Osborne, was set to unveil an emergency austerity budget.</p>
<p>GBP/USD gained 0.04% to hit 1.4764 during late Asian trade, after rising from 1.4724, the pair&#8217;s lowest since last Thursday.</p>
<p>Cable was likely to find support at 1.4645, the low of June 17, and resistance at 1.5147, the high of May 6.</p>
<p>In the budget, Osborne will unveil a USD 30 billion package of tax hikes and spending cuts aimed at slashing the U.K. budget deficit, The Daily Telegraph reported. He is expected to strip millions of middle-income families of child-related benefits and target the wages of public sector workers, according to the British paper.</p>
<p>Sterling slid versus the euro, meanwhile, with EUR/GBP gaining 0.07% to reach 0.8349.</p>
<p>Later in the day, an industry group will release key data on existing U.S. home sales, a leading indicator of economic health.</p>
<ul>
<li> <a href="http://www.forexpros.com/news/forex-news/forex---gbp-usd-rises-as-osborne-set-to-unveil-austerity-budget-144331">Link</a></li>
</ul>
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		<title>Peru Central Bank Intervenes In Forex Market, Buys $152M</title>
		<link>http://www.xen-forex.com/blog/2010/06/peru-central-bank-intervenes-in-forex-market-buys-152m/</link>
		<comments>http://www.xen-forex.com/blog/2010/06/peru-central-bank-intervenes-in-forex-market-buys-152m/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 22 Jun 2010 08:51:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Forex]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.xen-forex.com/blog/?p=75</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[LIMA (Dow Jones)&#8211;The Central Reserve Bank of Peru intervened  Monday in the foreign-exchange market to buy $152 million.
The  central bank had intervened on Friday to buy $73 million. The central  bank intervenes to smooth out volatility in the exchange market.
On Monday, the sol ended slightly stronger, at PEN2.827 per dollar.  The [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>LIMA (Dow Jones)&#8211;The Central Reserve Bank of Peru intervened  Monday in the foreign-exchange market to buy $152 million.</p>
<p>The  central bank had intervened on Friday to buy $73 million. The central  bank intervenes to smooth out volatility in the exchange market.</p>
<p>On Monday, the sol ended slightly stronger, at PEN2.827 per dollar.  The sol ended the previous session at PEN2.829 per U.S. dollar.</p>
<p>-Robert Kozak, Dow Jones Newswires; 511-99927 7269; peru@dowjones.com</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100621-710023.html?mod=WSJ_latestheadlines">Link</a></li>
</ul>
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		<title>FOREX-Euro steadies, heads for best week since May 2009</title>
		<link>http://www.xen-forex.com/blog/2010/06/forex-euro-steadies-heads-for-best-week-since-may-2009/</link>
		<comments>http://www.xen-forex.com/blog/2010/06/forex-euro-steadies-heads-for-best-week-since-may-2009/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 18 Jun 2010 19:15:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Currency trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Exchange rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forex]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.xen-forex.com/blog/?p=73</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[* Dollar index  hits 1-month low; eyes on 85 area
Currencies
* Swiss franc hits new record high vs euro
* Yuan jumps to  1-month high vs dollar in NDFs  (Adds details, prices, changes byline)
By Wanfeng  Zhou and Steven  C. Johnson
NEW YORK, June 18  (Reuters) &#8211; The euro hovered near a three-week [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3><strong>* Dollar index  hits 1-month low; eyes on 85 area</strong></h3>
<p><a href="http://www.reuters.com/finance/currencies">Currencies</a></p>
<p>* Swiss franc hits new record high vs euro</p>
<p>* <a title="Full coverage of the  Yuan" onclick="Reuters.article.trackInlineLink(15)" href="http://www.reuters.com/subjects/yuan">Yuan</a> jumps to  1-month high vs dollar in NDFs  (Adds details, prices, changes byline)</p>
<p>By <a href="http://blogs.reuters.com/search/journalist.php?edition=us&amp;n=wangfeng.zhou&amp;">Wanfeng  Zhou</a> and <a href="http://blogs.reuters.com/search/journalist.php?edition=us&amp;n=steven.johnson&amp;">Steven  C. Johnson</a></p>
<p>NEW YORK, June 18  (Reuters) &#8211; The euro hovered near a three-week high against the dollar on Friday and headed for its best weekly gain in over a year as European leaders said they would publish details about the health of European banks.</p>
<p>With markets a bit less anxious about  Spain&#8217;s public finances after the country attracted buyers for a debt auction this week, some analysts said the stress test results could boost trust in Europe&#8217;s banking system.</p>
<p>But others cautioned that signs of trouble in the sector could put the brakes on euro gains snapping a rally that lifted the currency some 2 percent against the dollar this week, its best weekly performance since May 2009.</p>
<p>Bank stress tests &#8220;could be quite significant if they in fact show that significant capital needs to be raised by some of the major European banks,&#8221; said Brian Dolan, chief strategist at Forex.com in Bedminster, New Jersey. &#8220;The euro zone is by no means out of the woods.&#8221;</p>
<p>After hitting a three-week high above $1.24 Thursday, the euro retreated to $1.2363 <a href="http://www.reuters.com/finance/currencies/quote?srcCurr=EUR&amp;destCurr=USD">EUR=</a>,  down 0.1 percent on the day. It was still rooted in a short-term uptrend that began after hitting $1.1876 last week, its worst level since 2006. the currency was 0.4 percent weaker at 112.21 yen EURJPY= while the dollar was off 0.2 percent at 90.79 yen <a href="http://www.reuters.com/finance/currencies/quote?srcCurr=JPY&amp;destCurr=USD">JPY=</a>.</p>
<p>Anxiety about the fiscal health of euro  zone countries has eased a bit over the last week and encouraged investors to unwind bets against the single currency.</p>
<p>&#8220;We&#8217;re going to see whether the euro is going to sustain these gains and press on toward $1.25,&#8221; Dolan said. &#8220;But if we see a move back below $1.2340-50, it looks like we might see some end-of-week profit-taking.&#8221;</p>
<p>BNP Paribas strategists see the euro&#8217;s corrective rebound running out of steam near $1.2525, saying data suggest euro gains are &#8220;not backed by real money investment flows.&#8221;</p>
<p>Analysts said already light trading  activity Friday was expected to dissipate further shortly after 2 p.m. when a World Cup match between England and Algeria kicks off.</p>
<p>SWISS, CHINESE CURRENCIES GAIN</p>
<p>The euro slid to a record low EURCHF= at  1.3718 Swiss francs, according to Reuters data, while the dollar hit a one-month low of 1.1081 francs <a href="http://www.reuters.com/finance/currencies/quote?srcCurr=CHF&amp;destCurr=USD">CHF=</a>.</p>
<p>The franc gained after Switzerland&#8217;s  central bank on Thursday backed away from a pledge to fight currency strength and said deflation risks have receded. [ID:nLDE65E1W2]</p>
<p>The dollar index .DXY was flat at 85.737,  after falling to a one-month low at 85.453. Technical analysts said it looked vulnerable after breaking through support at 85.85, with the next key level seen in the 85.13 area, its May 21 low.</p>
<p>The Chinese yuan rose to a one-month high  against the U.S. dollar in offshore forwards as investors bet China may eventually cave in to growing pressure from the U.S. Congress to let the yuan rise in value. [ID:nTOE65H05T]</p>
<p>Benchmark one-year non-deliverable forwards  CNY1YNDFOR= fell as far 6.6780. That implied investors were betting on a 2.2 percent rise in the yuan against the U.S. dollar over the next year, up from bets of a 1.3 percent gain on Thursday.</p>
<p>But Brown Brothers Harriman strategist Marc  Chandler said Washington likely &#8220;lacks the leverage to get China to do something that it does not want to do.&#8221; See analysis [ID:nN17253187].</p>
<p>After the  2007-2009 financial crisis and the current European sovereign debt crisis, China can argue &#8220;it is a distraction to focus on the yuan,&#8221; Chandler said.</p>
<p>(Additional reporting by Tamawa Desai in  London; Editing by )</p>
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<li><a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1815184320100618">Link</a></li>
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