ForEx Trading

forex investing and stock trading

noreply@blogger.com (funjoke) — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 09:13:50 PST

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Posted: 08 Nov 2009 11:21 PM PST

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noreply@blogger.com (funjoke) — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 03:10:43 PST

Forex Blog

Forex Implications of China-US Economic Codependency

Posted: 08 Nov 2009 05:34 AM PST

The Economist recently published a special report on China and America (”Round and round it goes“). As the title suggests, the article described the increasing interdependency between the economies of the US and China. In a nutshell, China maintains an undervalued currency, in order to stimulate exports. The resulting overseas (American) demand puts upward pressure on the RMB, which China defuses by buying US Treasury securities. This results in artificially low US interest rates, causing American consumers to import more, putting even more pressure on the RMB, which is further defused by buying more US Treasuries. And the cycle continues ad nauseum.

The article focused primarily on the political side of this precarious relationship, at the expense of the financial implications. It got me thinking about the forex forces at work, and how a disruption in the cycle could have tremendous ramifications for currency markets. It’s clear that in its current form, this system keeps the Yuan artificially low, but does that means that the Dollar is also being kept artificially high.

Given the depreciation of the Dollar over the last six months, this seems almost hard to believe. Over the same time period, though, China (as well as many other Central Banks) have vastly increased their Treasury holdings This would seem to imply that indeed, the Dollar’s fall has been slowed to some extent by the actions of China. It’s kind of a paradox; as US consumers recover their appetite for Chinese goods, the Dollar should decline. But as China responds by plowing all of those Dollars back into the US, then the net effect is zero.

As the Economist article intimated, there are a couple of developments that would seem to upset this equilibrium. The first would be if the Central Bank of China began diversifying its forex reserves into other currencies. By definition, however, it would be impossible for China to continue pegging the RMB to the Dollar without simultaneously buying Dollars. Thus, the day that China stops recycling its export proceeds into the US, the RMB would start to appreciate, almost instantaneously. In addition, the sudden surcease in US Treasury bond purchases would cause interest rates to rise. Both higher rates and a more expensive currency would presumably result in lower demand for Chinese exports, and hence eliminate some of the need to recycle its trade surplus back into the US. In this way, we can see that China’s Treasury purchases are actually self-fulfilling. The sooner it stops purchasing them, the sooner it will no longer need to purchase them.

I’m tempted to elaborate further on this point, but it seems that I’ve already taken it to its logical conclusion. China must recognize the dilemma that it faces, which is why it refuses to break from the status quo. If it allows the Yuan to appreciate, it will naturally face a decline in exports AND the relative value of its US Treasury holdings will decline in RMB terms. Both would be painful in the short-run. However, by refusing to concede the un-sustainability of its forex/economic policy, China is merely forestalling the inevitable. With every passing day, the adjustment will only become more painful.

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noreply@blogger.com (funjoke) — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 01:14:42 PST

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noreply@blogger.com (funjoke) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 01:13:42 PST

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noreply@blogger.com (funjoke) — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 03:11:10 PST

Forex Blog

How will Foreign Investment Tax Affect the Real?

Posted: 04 Nov 2009 06:50 PM PST

On October 20, the executive office of the government of Brazil enacted an emergency measure, calling for a 2% tax on on all foreign capital inflows. And with one foul swoop, this year’s 35% rise in the Real had come to an end, right?

The tax certainly took investors by surprise, with the Brazilian stock market falling by 3% and the Real falling by 2%, the largest margins for both in several months. The tax is comprehensive and applies to essentially to all foreign capital deployed in Brazilian capital markets, whether fixed income, equities, or currencies. While the tax doesn’t apply to those currently invested in Brazil, the possibility that it would cause potential investors to stay away was enough to cause a sell-off.

The ostensible reason for the tax levy is to prevent a further rise in the Real. By most measures, the currency’s rise has been excessive, more than erasing the losses incurred during the credit crisis. The concern is that a more expensive currency will derail the Brazilian economic recovery before it has a chance to firmly get off the ground. “Brazil's currency needs to weaken as much as 19 percent for sustainable economic growth, said Nelson Barbosa, the Brazilian Finance Ministry's top policy adviser.”

According to cynics, however, the tax is a backhanded effort to raise revenue to fund a growing budget deficit. The government continues to spend money (perhaps to offset the negative impact on exports brought on by the Real’s rise) as part of its stimulus plan, but is increasingly tapping the bond markets to do so. The tax is expected to bring in an impressive $23 Billion over the next year, which could go part of the way towards fixing the government’s fiscal problems.

The real question, of course, is how the Real will fare going forward. The initial reaction, as I said, was ‘The Party’s over…‘ But investors with a longer-term horizon aren’t fretting. “In the medium term, the measure will have a limited impact. The fundamentals point to a stronger real, with commodities rising and the dollar weakening globally,” asserted one economist. While investors aren’t happy about paying an arbitrary 2% fee to the government, such pales in comparison to the 10%+ returns that investors still aim to reap from investing in Brazil over the long-term.

Ignoring the possible bubbles forming in Brazilian capital markets (admittedly, a dubious suggestion), Brazil still looks like a good bet, especially on a comparative basis. Interest rate futures point to a benchmark interest rate of 10.3% at this time next year, compared to ~1% in the US. Even after accounting for inflation and the 2% tax levy, the yield spread between Brazil and the US remains impressive. For that reason, the Real has already stalled in its expected fall against the US Dollar, standing only 1.7% below where it was on the day the tax was declared.

It’s unclear how determined the Brazilian government is towards pushing down the Real. The comments by its finance minister suggest that the consensus is that it is not slightly – but extremely overvalued. Thus, it’s likely that the government will enact other aggressive measures to prevent it at least from rising further. It continues to buy Dollars on the spot market, and is trying to make it easier for Brazilians to take money out of Brazil. It is not yet ready to tamper with its floating currency, but by its own admission, the “government was studying additional measures to regulate the heavy inflow of foreign investments and its impact on the country’s currency.”

There are also implications for other (emerging market) currencies. As I wrote earlier this week (”Central Banks Prop Up Dollar“) a number of Central Banks have already intervened or are currently mulling intervention in forex markets, to push down their currencies. You can be sure that other governments will be studying the situation in Brazil closely, with the possibility of implementing such policies themselves.

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noreply@blogger.com (funjoke) — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 05:50:00 PST

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noreply@blogger.com (funjoke) — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 03:24:53 PST

Forex Blog

Central Banks Prop Up Dollar

Posted: 02 Nov 2009 08:11 AM PST

By all accounts, the decline of the US Dollar has been measured, and without incident. This, despite the fact that most investors reckon the Dollar is doomed, both from a long-term and a short-term perspective. What, then, is preventing an all-out collapse?

Personally, I think the best answer is that Central Banks (and their sponsoring governments) don’t want the Dollar to collapse. In other words, a schism is forming between private investors and public government, whereby investors (on a net basis) are rooting against the Dollar, while Central Banks are rooting for it. That’s not to say that there is a global conspiracy involving Central Banks, designed to prop up the Dollar. Rather, it is that Central Banks are simply trying to protect their short-term financial interests, and long-term economic interests. By this, I mean simply that foreign Central Banks have everything to gain from a strong Dollar, and seemingly everything to lose from its collapse.

From an economic standpoint, foreign Central Banks also benefit from a strong Dollar, especially those whose economies are powered by exports. “A stronger local currency relative to the dollar attracts foreign investment and tempers domestic price pressures by keeping import prices in check, but also cuts into the competitiveness of the country’s export sector.” Given that inflation is currently a moot issue whereas economic growth remains tenuous, Central Banks have made it clear that they currently favor weak currencies. “If (their currencies have) too much strength and the U.S. recovery falters, it’s bad for emerging market growth,” and could even lead to a so-called “double-dip recession”

In order to alleviate this possibility, many Central Banks have intervened directly in forex markets and depressed their currencies through the purchase of Dollars. During only one trading session earlier this month, “Asian central banks said to be intervening in currency markets overnight by buying dollars included South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Thailand, the Philippines and possibly, Indonesia, according to analysts.”

Meanwhile, Central Banks in industrialized countries are using increasingly strong rhetoric to try to talk down their currencies. The Banks of Canada and England have achieved modest success in the last few weeks in convincing investors that overvalued currencies would be met with decisive action The Royal Bank of Switzerland has intervened several times, while the European Central Bank has expressed concerns about “volatility” (code for the rapid appreciation in the Euro) in forex markets. It’s still not clear where the Bank of Japan stands. The newly appointed Finance Minister has already flip-flopped several times, settling finally on a course of action that would prevent the Yen from rising too high and threatening the nascent recovery.

Consider also foreign Central Banks’ collective holdings of US Treasury securities, which increased by nearly $800 Billion over the last year, a large portion of which was accounted for by the Banks of China and Japan. According to the most recent Federal Reserve data, they are collectively adding to their stockpile at a pace of $10 Billion per week. As the WSJ explains, “The inflows highlight the challenges facing nations with large dollar holdings, particularly developing countries. A weaker dollar is, in theory, bad for their investments as it eats into returns when translated back into local currencies.”

In other words, continued foreign Central Bank investment in US Treasury securities is perhaps rooted less in investment strategy, then in the simple desire to prevent their current holdings from depreciating. At the same time, those banks that intervene directly in forex markets often have little choice other than to hold their forex reserves in US Treasuries.

You can see from this that the idea of an alternative reserve currency would actually run counter to the interests of many of these Central Banks. With the exception of a few (i.e. Iran, and to a lesser extent, China) that would like to see the Dollar fail for political reasons, the vast majority of banks have a vested interest in the Dollar remaining where it is. Otherwise, they would witness the value of their Dollar-denominated assets collapse, as well as a collapse in exports to the US.

It looks like, then, there will be a showdown at some point between the Central Banks and investors. If you accept the notion of efficient markets, then it should be obvious who will win in the long-term. On the other hand, you can’t underestimate the determination of some of these banks.

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noreply@blogger.com (funjoke) — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 01:15:16 PST

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noreply@blogger.com (funjoke) — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 00:56:57 PST

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Posted: 31 Oct 2009 10:01 PM PDT

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GBP/USD Weekly Outlook

While the recovery from 1.6250 was strong, it was still limited below 1.6692 and GBP/USD weakened against since then. The choppy look of such recovery suggests that it's merely a correction to fall from 1.6692 only. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for 1.6250 first. Break there will target 100% projection of 1.6692 to 1.6250 from 1.6603 at 1.6161 next. However, a break above 1.6603 will dampen this immediate bearish view and turn focus back to 1.6692/6740 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 1.5706 was strong, it was still limited below 1.6740 resistance and hence, we'd continue to prefer the bearish case. That is, medium term rebound from 1.3503, which is treated as correction in the long term down trend from 2.1161, has completed at 1.7043. Break of 1.5706 will affirm this case and target a retest of 1.3503 low in medium term. However, note that break of 1.6740 resistance will confirm that fall from 1.7043 has completed with three waves down to 1.5706 already. The three wave structure will indicate that it's merely a correction to medium term rebound from 1.3503 only. In other words, another high above 1.7043 should be seen before GBP/USD tops out.

In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Rebound from 1.3503, which is treated as correction in the larger down trend, has likely completed and fall from 1.7043 is tentatively treated and resumption of such down trend that will send GBP/USD through 1.3503 low eventually.

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Posted: 31 Oct 2009 10:00 PM PDT

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USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

USD/JPY reversed after edging higher to 92.31 last week and the development indicates that rebound from 88.00 has completed already. Initial bias will remain on the downside this week and further decline should be seen to retest 88.00 low first On the upside, in case of recovery, break of 91.60 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 92.31 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the bigger picture, the bearish outlook remains unchanged. Fall from 101.43 is treated as resumption of the whole down trend from 124.13. Break of 87.12 low will confirm resumption of this down trend and should target next key level of 1995 low at 79.75. However, note that break of 92.31 resistance will firstly suggest that fall from 97.77 has completed. Additionally, this will raise the possibility that whole decline from 101.43 has finished with three waves down to 88.00 after meeting 100% projection of 101.43 to 91.73 from 97.77 at 88.07. The three wave structure will in turn indicate that rise from 87.12 is going to resume. Further break of 97.77 will target a retest of 101.43 instead.

In the long term picture, firstly, fall from 124.13 is still in progress. Such decline is treated as part of the long term down trend after triangle consolidation from 79.75 has completed at 124.13. In other words, a break of 1995 low of 79.75 is likely as fall from 124.13 extends. Break of 97.77 resistance is needed to be the first indication of bottoming in medium to longer term. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

By Actionforex

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Posted: 31 Oct 2009 09:58 PM PDT

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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD's fall from 1.5061 extended further to as low as 1.4682 last week. Subsequent recovery was limited well below 1.5061 and EUR/USD weakened again to close the week near to the weekly low. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week and break of 1.4682 will confirm that fall from 1.5061 has resumed and should target 1.4483 support next. On the upside, though, a break of 1.4858 minor resistance will argue that fall from 1.5061 has completed and will turn focus back to this high.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.2456 has possibly completed at 1.5061 with bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Focus now turns to 1.4483 resistance and break there will confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement of 1.2456 to 1.5061 at 1.3451 and beyond. Also, note that price actions from 1.2329 are treated as part of the wide range consolidation that started at 1.6039 and hence, completion of rise from 1.2456 will signal completion of such consolidations too. On the upside, nevertheless, a break above 1.5061 will indicate that rise from 1.2456 is still in progress for 1.6039 high.

In the long term picture, the lack of impulsive structure of the rise from 1.2329 argues that it's the second wave of the wide range consolidation that started from 1.6039. Another medium term decline could still be seen to 1.2329 and below but downside should be contained above 1.1639 support. The long term up trend from 0.8223 is set to resume after completing the three wave medium term consolidation from 1.6039.

By Actionforex

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Posted: 31 Oct 2009 05:27 AM PDT

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FX Strategy Weekly

Market Outlook:

The biggest week of Q4 and anticipation of choppy trading conditions has already been translated in a substantial mark-up in volatility, but the worsening in US confidence data is a new trading theme that may receive more prominence depending how the ISM surveys pan out. The partial withdrawal from risk assets has been replaced by a flight-tosafety of the USD and JPY. Though safe haven flows could gain in popularity if ISM and PMI data disappoint and faltering equities force USD bears to cover, we have doubts over the propensity for USD gains to transpire into a long-term recovery without tightening support from the Fed. In the UK, the BoE may not trust the accuracy of the weak preliminary Q3 GDP figures from the ONS, but downside risks to growth are still evident from low M4 lending and this threatens to keep inflation below the 2% target over a twoyear period. This gives ammunition to the MPC to stay on a more dovish path compared to other G10 central banks The prospect of the Bank announcing more, and possibly, targeted asset purchases now looks extremely likely. A reduction in Bank rate is not priced in, but along with a cut in commercial bank remuneration rates has to be considered. This would be negative for GBP.

Technicals:

Dollar bounces on cue and then slides - time to sell or cyclical low?
Pound rally rolls on, more upside expected
Can the risk rally continue?

Quantitative Analysis:

Volatility in G-10 FX beginning to turn higher
Contrarian indicators move to neutral
Downside risk for USD, if leading indicators continue higher

Macro Outlook

The biggest week of Q4 and anticipation of choppy trading conditions has already been translated in a substantial mark-up in volatility, but the worsening in US confidence data is a new trading theme that may receive more prominence depending how the ISM surveys pan out. The partial withdrawal from risk assets has been replaced by a flight-to-safety of the USD and JPY. Though safe haven flows could gain in popularity if ISM and PMI data disappoint and faltering equities force USD bears to cover, we have doubts over the propensity for USD gains to transpire into a long-term recovery without tightening support from the Fed. In the UK, the BoE may not trust the accuracy of the weak preliminary Q3 GDP figures from the ONS, but downside risks to growth are still evident from low M4 lending and this threatens to keep inflation below the 2% target over a two-year period. This gives ammunition to the MPC to stay on a more dovish path compared to other G10 central banks. The prospect of the Bank announcing more, and possibly, targeted asset purchases now looks extremely likely. A reduction in Bank rate is not priced in, but along with a cut in commercial bank remuneration rates has to be considered. This would be negative for GBP.

USD

I am not buying into the bullish USD view based on the premise alone that the Fed will tweak the language of its FOMC statement next week Wednesday to give itself more leeway on interest rates in 2010.
Based on the deterioration in household confidence in early Q4 and potential spillover to leading indicators for housing etc., USD gains driven only by flight-to-quality may not be sustainable against its major counterparts, especially vs higher yielding and commodity currencies.
The G20 finmin meeting is something of a wildcard for price action at the end of next week but the recent USD bounce may have taken the sting out of the political debate, especially from the Euro zone.
The FOMC meeting dominates the calendar but assuming no change in rhetoric, focus will rapidly shift to October non-farm payrolls. EUR/USD is virtually flat since the last FOMC meeting and USD/JPY is down 0.6% just below 91.0. GBP/USD is up 0.6% at 1.6450. An unexpected drop in the October ISM surveys could bolster safe-haven USD demand.

EUR

Positive EU/US rate spreads and a turn in the German labour market support my call to buy dips in EUR/USD. This week's pullback below 1.4800 is subject to a retracement towards the 1.4580 area if equities lose further altitude, but this should be considered as a buying opportunity as long as the Fed signals its commitment to keep interest rates low.
I expect the ECB to stay sidelined on interest rates next week - refi at 1% - but EUR crosses could be supported if president Trichet comments on possible changes in future liquidity operations. ECB member Weber has signalled that the Bank may not offer unlimited 12-month liquidity in 2010. This follows lukewarm demand for funds at the September LTRO.
For EUR/GBP, I have been caught out by the lurch from above 0.94 to below 0.90. I look for a back up to 0.92 based on positive EU/UK 2y spreads (45bps) and a likely increase in QE by the BoE. This should protect EUR/GBP from further downside as buying of sterling for corporate purposes wanes.
Final EU-16 October PMIs are set to bring confirmation of resilience in manufacturing and services sectors in early Q4. What has been surprising in the euro zone PMIs is the outperformance of France vs Germany and Italy at the start of Q4, with both French PMIs running above 55.0 vs a 51.0 average for Germany and a 48.0 average for Italy.

GBP

An unwinding of GBP volatility is likely this week following an uninterrupted rise since the start of the month. EUR/GBP vol hit 12.82 on Thursday, the highest since June 10. One-year EUR/GBP vol scaled a six-month high, but 1mth/1y vol curves in GBP/USD and EUR/GBP continue to flatten.
For GBP spot, I like being short going into the MPC meeting on Thursday for the reasons outlined above. I am also reminded of the implicit BoE objective to keep sterling weak and promote rebalancing of the economy from private consumption towards net trade.
GBP buying related to corporate dividend payments has been an important driver of sterling support over the latter part of October, but is likely to fade once HSBC's results are published on November 10th. The BoE decision next week could be a catalyst for a reversal in GBP crosses.
Manufacturing and services PMI data for October on Monday and Wednesday will influence sentiment ahead of the MPC, but may not deter the BoE from its course of action. Remember the MPC decision will be based on the Quarterly Inflation Report, due the week after next.

CAD

USD/CAD has bounced 5.8% from the 1.0207 low since the Bank of Canada reiterated its disapproval of the strength of the CAD. The resulting decoupling with pro-risk assets has turned the CAD into one of the worst performing G10 currencies this month, with the rally in crude oil above $80pb failing to bring support. Canadian October employment stats are due on November 6th.
For USD/CAD, failure around the 1.08 area and subsequent reversal to the 1.0675 intra-week low suggests that CAD selling is fading. A break of 1.0544 support is required to reassert a bearish USD/CAD set-up.
For GBP/CAD, I look for a break below 1.75 support to squeeze the pair back towards 171 area. Key resistance is clustered in the 1.80-81 area.

JPY

The bounce in USD/JPY has been closely correlated with the rise in US 10y yields to 3.55% (see chart). JPY strength vs other G10 currencies except the USD dovetails with solid overseas investment flows into Japanese securities over the last two weeks, led by demand for money market instruments.
Short-term direction for the JPY essentially depends on broader trends in risk appetite and perceptions over the direction of the US economy in Q4. A quiet week lies ahead for Japanese data. I expect the BoJ to keep its target rate on hold at 0.10% as concerns prevail over the strength of economic recovery
For USD/JPY, the October 27 high of 92.32 serves as key resistance. For GBP/ JPY, we look to fade the rally at 152.50 resistance.

SCANDIS

EUR/NOK and EUR/SEK have both retraced higher over the past week as risk aversion sentiment in financial markets weighed on the Scandinavian currencies Given the fundamental backdrop of both Norway and Sweden, I would use this opportunity to sell into any rallies - particularly EUR/NOK. As Norway has begun its tightening cycle and the Riksbank is signalling higher rates in the second half of next year, I would expect both currencies to strengthen over the medium-term.
More immediately, however, PMI surveys will be key next week - not just in Scandinavia but for risk sentiment as a whole. With financial markets feeling jittery, any signs of a turn lower in the forward leading indicators could resurrect risk aversion with a vengeance The immediate impact of this would be for NOK and SEK to be hit versus EUR and USD. If this were to occur, I see resistance for EURSEK at 10.42 and then 10.64 with EURNOK at 8.57. My favoured view, however, remains bearish for both EURNOK and EURSEK and look to target 7.88 and 9.96 respectively.

AUD

The latest CPI data for Q3 came in a touch above consensus, slowing to 13% (consensus 1.2%) from 1.5% - not quite high enough to seal a 50bps rate hike by the RBA next week (3rd Nov), but not low enough to alter expectations of a 25bps hike. Given the sharp rise in business confidence over the quarter (-4 to +16), I expect a further 25bp in December, taking the Cash Target rate to 3.75% by year-end.
Consequently, I remain bullish on the AUD, but more cautiously so than last week. The sell-off in AUD/USD from the high of 0.9329 to 0.9078 at the time of writing potentially opens the way for a break lower. A break below 0.8870 would breach the upward trend line (from the March low) and this could see a move down to 0.8750 over the next couple of days.
Along with the RBA interest rate decision, key events next week include the manufacturing PMI survey as well as retail sales. While the Australian PMI outturn may not be focussed upon as much as the latest round of leading indicators from other countries, a move below 50 (unlikely in my view) would have very negative consequences for the AUD.

AUD

The October KOF and September CPI releases cover most of the release calendar next week for Switzerland and are likely to be key for near-term direction in CHF crosses.
For USD/CHF, a pullback from this week's 10287 high looks poised to extend towards the 1.01. A strong KOF result - consensus forecast 1.16 vs 0.85 would attract selling below 1.0206 trendline Key support runs at 1.0150.

Technical View

Dollar bounces on cue and then slides - time to sell or cyclical low?
Pound rally rolls on, more upside expected
Can the risk rally continue?

The past two trading sessions have been characterised by a strong bout of risk aversion followed by a pro-risk rebound as the markets lurch in and out of the US dollar and equities. Among the volatility, it is important to put these moves into context. This time last week I reversed my view of the dollar from bearish to bullish and specifically targeted the emerging market and 'pro-risk' commodity currencies as having significant potential to weaken (my view of the pound has remained bullish, however, as the currency continues to broadly recover from an oversold condition). The strong moves building from last week up to Wednesday were sharply reversed on Thursday and, whilst an oversold rebound was expected, the moves have gone beyond short term pain thresholds for positions. The question from here is: Does risk appetite return in force or is this an opportunity to buy US dollars? My view is that the latter case holds the greatest weight at this juncture, but from a risk perspective we may have to wait for dollar bears to punch themselves out.

The main reason for this view hinges on the technical profile of the equity markets which have initiated sell signals. In April I turned bullish on risk and the equity markets and bearish on the dollar, but have always maintained that this is simply a corrective phase. My timing for a reversal of risk was in Q1 2010, but it appeared that market events had brought this forward sooner, hence my current attempt to pick a significant reversal. Naturally I could be wrong about the current timing, but I will maintain a cautious equity view and a bullish dollar strategy until the S&P can recover the 1,100 handle. This still looks far enough away to be a challenge for the bulls and, if nothing else, the market has proved how fickle it can be in a short space of time. A break back below 76.30 in the dollar index (as shown below) is certainly a set-back, but it is possible the market will retest this major trendline as support having broken as resistance. This would suggest 75.75/80 will hold as support and ignite another dollar rally.

Sterling continues to push broadly higher as EUR/GBP completes a major head and shoulders reversal and cable squeezes back over 1.6500, eyeing the 1.6696 resistance that sent it into a tail spin. Whilst I am bullish on cable, I was looking for lower levels to join the bounce (1.6225), but despite this I can still see scope for a squeeze towards key resistance at 1.6740/60.

Chart of the week: US dollar index

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Forex Video Tutorial

noreply@blogger.com (funjoke) — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 00:56:57 PST

Forex Video Tutorial

What is a Turtle Trader? Michael Covel Lays It Out
81. The Role of the Retail Forex Broker
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noreply@blogger.com (funjoke) — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 01:07:59 PDT

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noreply@blogger.com (funjoke) — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 03:17:03 PDT

Forex Blog

Bank of Canada Still Mulling FX Intervention

Posted: 29 Oct 2009 08:18 AM PDT

The Canadian Dollar fell from parity with the US Dollar in July 2008. For a minute, it looked as though it would return to that mark in October 2009. Alas, it was not to be, as the currency that had risen 20% since March wasn’t able to rise another 3% to close the elusive gap that would once again bring it face-to-face with the Greenback.

The Loonie’s rise was not difficult to understand. Soaring commodity prices and the fact that the economic recession was milder in Canada than in other economies drove the perception that Canada was a good place to invest. Despite a surging budget deficit and weak domestic consumption, investors bought into this notion. The weak Dollar and rising risk aversion reinforced this perception, and as investors accepted that parity was inevitable, hot money poured in and the Loonie’s rise became self-fulfilling.

That was until Mark Carney, head of the Bank of Canada, used the strongest rhetoric to-date in discussing the possibility of intervention. For the first time in this cycle, the markets took the hint, and sent the Canadian Dollar down by the largest single-day margin in months. “Markets should take seriously our determination to set policy to achieve the inflation target. Markets sometimes lose their focus, we don’t lose our focus,” he said firmly, adding that forex intervention is “always an option.”

Intervention is supported both by economic data, and other Canadian institutions. According to one estimate, every 1 cent increase in the Loonie against the Greenback costs the county $2 Billion in export revenue and 25,000 jobs. The chief economist for CIBC, meanwhile, has warned that many companies are in the process of making long-term direct investment decisions, and could be discouraged from locating in Canada because of perceptions that its currency will remain strong for the immediate future: “If the loonie is overvalued for a few years, we may be sacrificing business plant and equipment on the altar of a strong currency.” He also compared the predicament facing the Bank of Canada to that facing the Royal Bank of Switzerland, which ultimately and successfully intervened on behalf of the Franc. Intervention on behalf of the Loonie, he argued, could be undertaken under the umbrella of fighting speculation and irrational movements in currency markets.

Prior to this outburst, investors had basically concluded that the BOC wasn’t prepared to put its money where its mouth was, so to speak. “The central bank’s shot across the bow has definitely subsided. There’s not much they can do,” summarized one analyst a few weeks ago. The term “jawboning” had become the preference of columnists and investors when discussing the resolve of the BOC. The belief was that the BOC had concluded that intervention was essentially a futile proposition (based on its failed efforts in the late 1990’s), and that it would instead resort to making idle threats.

In fact, it seems investors still are no convinced that the BOC (via Carney) means what it says. “Mark Carney has raised the prospect of intervening in currency markets, but seems reluctant to actually do so,” argued one analyst. “I don’t think they would really like to intervene at all, and they would prefer avoiding it. If they can intervene by jaw boning, they would much rather do that,” added another.

Why did the Loonie fall suddenly then, if the markets still aren’t concerned about intervention? The answer is that they have seen the concrete impact of the expensive Loonie on the Canadian economy. In the words of one analyst, it has moved from being a threat to a bona fide impediment. Especially given the stall in the commodity price rally, investors apparently are willing to acknowledge that they may have gotten ahead of themselves and that parity with the Dollar is not yet justified by fundamentals. Meanwhile, Canadian interest rates are at a comparable level with US rates, which means foreign investors can’t earn a yield spread from investing in Canada. This is likely to be the case for a while, as the valuable Loonie has kept inflation in check and given the BOC some flexibility in tightening its monetary policy.

Personally, I don’t think the BOC will ultimately intervene. Investors have shown that they aren’t afraid of the BOC, which would make any intervention both expensive and unfruitful. In addition, I think investors have accepted their own accesses, and will hesitate to push the Loonie much higher (or past parity, for that matter) until there is more evidence that such is justified. In the meantime, expect the Loonie to hover in the 90’s and perhaps even test parity, before smashing through when the time is right. And this, I do believe, is inevitable.

forex update

noreply@blogger.com (funjoke) — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 03:13:52 PDT

forex update

Posted: 29 Oct 2009 09:18 PM PDT

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Daily Technical Analysis

EURUSD Outlook

The trendline support on daily chart I showed you yesterday proved to be an important support at this phase as bearish pressure failed to push lower and EURUSD started to regain it's bullish momentum, topped at 1.4858 and closed at 1.4839. This fact should be seen as potential end to the bearish correction and price seems to ready re-testing 1.5000 once again. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 1.4950 – 1.5000 area but we need a consistent movement above 1.4850 to confirm the bullish scenario. Immediate support at 1.4760 area. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone as price might retesting the trendline support one more time. Overall, as long as the pair able to stay above the trendline, I prefer a bullish scenario at this phase.

GBPUSD Outlook

My bearish scenario failed yesterday as GBPUSD had a significant bullish momentum, traded convincingly above the bearish channel, topped at 1.6603 and closed at 1.6560. This fact should trigger further upside momentum at least testing 1.6692 area today. However CCI in overbought area and heading down on h4 chart so watch out for potential downside rebound testing 1.6520 support area. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone as price might retreat lower towards the upper line of the bearish channel.

USDJPY Outlook

The USDJPY made a significant bullish momentum yesterday as price made a false breakdown from the bullish channel and now back inside the bullish channel. Usually false breakdown lead to significant bullish momentum with 92.50 area as potential bullish target. The bias is neutral in nearest term but I prefer a bullish scenario at this phase with the lower line of the bullish channel as a potential area to place a long position with tight stop loss below it. Immediate support at 91.20 area. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear for me.

USDCHF Outlook

The 1.0280 area was proved to be a strong resistance area at this phase as price significantly moved lower after failed to break above that area. This fact should be a serious threat to the bullish correction scenario. I will pay attention to the 1.0166 support area as key support level today. Clear break below that area should trigger further bearish pressure retesting 1.0000/40 psychological level.

EURJPY Outlook

The EURJPY failed to continue it's bearish momentum yesterday, rejected by the trendline support (blue) as you can see on my daily chart below. This fact lead me to no trading zone area but strong rejection to move below trendline support yesterday should open the door for potential further bullish momentum re-testing 138.68 area. Immediate support at 135.25 area. Break below that area scould trigger further bearish pressure.

GBPJPY Outlook

The GBPJPY failed to continue it's bearish scenario yesterday. As you can see in my h4 chart below the bearish channel has been violated to the upside and price now traded convincingly above 149.40 area indicating bullish view. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 153.20 area. Immediate support at 151.00 – 150.70 area. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone but I prefer a bullish scenario at this phase

AUDUSD Outlook

The AUDUSD had a significant bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 0.9180 and closed at 0.9155. My technical focus today will be at the trendline resistance (blue) as you can see on my h4 chart below. Break above that trendline should trigger further bullish momentum re-testing 0.9270 area and put the bearish correction to it's end. Immediate support at 0.9120/00 area. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone as direction would become unclear for me.

By (Setyo Wibowo) FX Instructor LLC

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Forex Video Tutorial

noreply@blogger.com (funjoke) — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 01:16:54 PDT

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