Think about it.  If Carmelo makes it abundantly clear to the rest of the league that he wants to be a Knick, what other team would trade for him now just to lose him during free agency this summer?  Only a team that is willing to take the risk that they can convince him otherwise—that they have a superior roster to the Knicks.  Perhaps the Bulls can do that.  Maybe Orlando.  Maybe the Nets.  But really, this could be a one team race to obtain Melo if New York is where he wants to be.

And, all indications are that Melo only has eyes for New York.  He just got married to his wife who’s in the entertainment industry and is from the city.  He has his own roots to city (born in Brooklyn), the state (went to Syracuse), and the east coast.  He has a great relationship with Mike D’Antoni where he featured as one of Team USA’s three best players.  His marketing opportunities would explode as a Knick.  He knows the Knicks will spare no expense (which is more than you can say for the Bulls and Orlando).  And, his chances to win a championship might be best in NY.  Here is the Knicks roster if a Gallo/Curry trade goes down:

PG: Felton / Douglas
SG: Azubuike / Walker / Rautins
SF: Carmelo / Chandler / Fields
PF: Amare / Randolph
C: Turiaf / Mozgov / Jordan

That’s solid.  That can compete with any team including the Heat.

It should be noted, I’d really, really, really be bummed to trade Danilo.  I truly believe he has borderline all-star potential and is a great fit for SSOL, especially with his stroke.  But, you’ve gotta give something up to get something.  I’d add Walker and/or Chandler, too if it would sweeten the pot.  I’d be very reluctant to give up Randolph, though, since he’s so multidimensional which might be just as important as outside shooting to D’Antoni.

The Knicks truly have the upper hand in this situation.  Carmelo wants New York.  Denver doesn’t want to end up in Cleveland’s situation.  The longer this goes on, the less Denver will be able to get back.  At the trade deadline, a team surging for a playoff spot or a team thinking this is their one shot to put them over the top, might pull the trigger on renting Melo.  But how much would they really give up?

Strangely enough, during the season, as early as January, I actually thought Lebron would end up in Miami.  Tip of the hat to me!  But, I must admit by the end of the season I finally started to believe New York might be the place if it wasn’t Cleveland. I probably changed my mind daily on what would happen.

Personally, I struggled all season with the idea that Lebron on my Knicks was a good thing.  Yeah, he’s an once in a generation player.  But the fame-whoring, self-marketing, sideline dancing, the nail-biting…  I just don’t think I’d have an easy time rooting for him with my heart.

Instead James, Wade and Bosh have created a team that fans will love to hate.  Almost like the Dallas Cowboys.  It’ll give people a rooting interest, even if it’s just to root against something.  It will give us the most hated team in the NBA since the Riley-era Knicks.  How ironic.

Fortunately, and I sincerely mean it, Lebron isn’t on my Knicks.  With the signing of Amar’e and unforeseen Randolph acquisition, Donnie Walsh was masterful in recreating this team and giving us a season to look forward to.  I rate the summer an A- instead of an A+ only because there wasn’t a PG on the market who is truly perfect for Seven Seconds or Less.

To start, Amar’e was the cream of the free agent, big man crop.  The only true max contract big man out there.  No available player (Lebron and Wade aside) puts fear into the minds of opposing defenses the way Amare does.  I know there are health concerns, but I truly think they are overblown since none of the injuries are recurring.  And, I know Amar’e will miss Steve Nash, but it can be said that Nash will miss Amar’e, too.  In Amar’e, the Knicks finally have one of the top ten players in the league.

Additionally, Amar’e is one of the few players out there confident enough to crave the New York spotlight and the responsibility of being a team leader.  After being considered the second best player on the Suns, he has a big chip on his shoulder and wants to prove he’s in the same class as Lebron or Wade.  He actually wants the challenge of New York and as a fan you have to love it.  Amar’e promises to be the most popular and spectacular Knick since Latrell Sprewell.

Or, maybe he won’t because it doesn’t get more exciting than Anthony Randolph.  When it was finally becoming clear the Knicks probably weren’t getting Lebron, Walsh pulled of the best Knicks trade since Charles Oakley for Marcus Camby.  Instead of losing Lee for nothing in free agency, he pulled of a coup and managed a sign and trade to land Anthony Randolph, Kelenna Azuibuke, and Ronny Turiaf (as well as two second round picks).

Physically, Randolph is like a longer version of Kevin Durant. He has the blocking ability of Marcus Camby and potentially the all around game of Scottie Pippen.  Or maybe Kevin Garnett with a handle.  He’s just freaky.  If he can manage to become a consistent outside threat and keep his head screwed on straight, he will be a perennial all-star.

Azuibuke and Turiaf are also welcome addtions.  Buke shoots an excellent percentage from three and plays excellent defense.  Turiaf bring a lot of spirit, defense, and blocking and is a legit center who can play alongside Amar’e.  All three ex-Warriors will give the Knicks much needed scrappiness and defense.

Then Walsh addressed the Knicks lack of point guard depth by signing Ray Felton.  I’m slightly dubious on this signing, worrying about the fit for this team as well as his ability to run D’Antoni’s offense, but I can’t deny that it was a necessary move and huge upgrade over Duhon.  Felton has a reputation for being a great team leader and used to push the ball at UNC.  Charlotte seemed to stifle his game, but he blossomed in his contract year, and was clearly the best free agent guard available.  He and Toney Douglas should be a more than capable point guard tandem, though I worry that neither will excel at the pick and roll with Amar’e.

To round out free agency, the Knicks signed Russian international Timofey Mozgov, a hulking 7 foot center.  Not much is known about him, but there was some considerable buzz about him from overseas scouts.  Most didn’t realize Mozgov wanted to come to the states, and the Knicks seemingly swept in to sign him before anyone else had a chance.  Kudos to Walsh for keeping an eye on the overseas players.  I’m not expecting much from Mozgov except for some put backs and fouls, but if he can do that for 12 minutes a night and play some tough defense, he’ll prove to be a worthy signing.

Finally, the Knicks draft can’t be ignored.  Andy Rautins and Landry Fields were universally panned as draft picks.  But, the Knicks sensibly got guys who fit this team, instead of reaching for fools gold.  The Fields pick in particular got killed, but Fields excelled in summer league and is already making Walsh look smart.  Rautins didn’t find his shot during summer league, but promises to be a three point threat once he gets in the flow of the NBA game and used to the three point line.  Additionally, Walsh picked up Jerome Jordan, a solid if underwhelming 7-footer who should give the Knicks additional presence in the paint moving forward.  It has to be said that Walsh picked up three guys in the second round who could be limited contributors this season.

Baring injuries, here’s how I see the Knicks depth chart this season (with average minutes in parenthesis):

PG: Felton (34) / Douglas (14) / Rautins (-)
SG: Azuibuke (24) / Chandler (14) / Douglas (10) / Walker (-)
SF: Gallo (32) / Chandler (10) / Randolph (6) / Fields (-)
PF: Amare (38) / Randolph (10)
C: Turiaf (24) / Randolph (16) / Mozgov (8) / Jordan (-) / Curry (-)

Knicks get Joe Johnson and Chris Bosh (sign/trade): My thought being the Knicks will make JJ feel like a priority going to him first, making him feel like a star, like the guy they want the most.  There will also be a comfort level with Coach D.  As for Bosh, they’ll also make him feel like he’s the man, telling him “You don’t need to be Lebron or DWade’s sidekick.  As the main attraction on the Knicks your marketability and star appeal in the league will rival that of Wade and Lebron.”

Raptors get David Lee.  Lee gets to control his own destiny a little bit in a sign and trade.  But, I worry that OKC swoops in to make Lee an offer to derail a sign and trade.  Additionally, does Lee want to be in Toronto?  Maybe some sort of super complex 3 team sign and trade happens.

Miami gets Wade and Amare.  Why would Wade leave Miami?  I mean really?  And Amare would add a great inside outside touch.  He’ll think, “if Wade won it with Shaq downlow he can win it with me down low, too.”  Besides the Miami lifestyle will hold a ton of appeal over Amare.

Cleveland gets Lebron. Lebron overplays his hand with all teams, stalls too much and the pieces start to fall before he can control them.  Additionally, he realizes that he and his peeps run the org.  Realizes he’s less of a bad guy if he stays in Cleveland.  Realizes he can’t live in the Jordan shadow and isn’t a good fit with the Chicago roster.  Realizes being in Newark for 2 years isn’t ideal.  Realizes he doesn’t want to share the credit and legacy with Wade.

Chicago gets Boozer. They add the low post scoring they actually really need and fits.

New Jersey gets no one (for now). No one is willing to wait around 2 to 3 years of a 5 year contract to play in Brooklyn.  They’ll have too much trouble getting the first chip to fall in place.  BUT, they’ll probably make it happen at some point either by trade, signing, or in a sign and trade for someone cool since they won’t be encumbered by the salary cap.

As for Lebron, I think the Knicks do have the best shot at landing him if it’s not Cleveland.  I just think the Knicks are going to move hard and fast on Joe Johnson and make him an offer immediately to get something no matter what.

Seeing that the 2010 point guard pickings are extremely slim, especially after 2009′s crop, we’re looking at a lot of potential big men.  The later you get in the draft, the more likely that you’ll need a lot of luck to find a player who can make a significant contribution at the next level.  But, one draft philosophy that holds at least some water when you get late in the draft is to select someone who is a specialist.  Someone who is really, really, really good at least one thing.  With that I present you Jarvis Varnado and Brian Zoubek.

Jarvis Varnado

(Center/Power Forward, Miss St.) — One thing Varnado has going for him is a cool last name. I swear, people hear this guy’s last name and become convinced he’s a player (I’ll call it the ‘God Shamgod Theory’). From most accounts, Varnado is extremely raw, especially on the offensive end.  But, dang, the dude has one big skill the Knicks have been lacking for forever: shot blocking.

[ from Chad Ford: ]

He’s been the most dominant shot-blocker in college basketball the past few years, and it’s hard to imagine he won’t continue that success at the next level.

He’s an explosive athlete with a downright freaky 7-4 wingspan. He has a knack for blocking shots, is a good rebounder and plays hard on every possession. He’s slowly been improving on the offensive end, but he’s never going to be a dominant offensive player.

Is he Baby Motumbo?  I definitely think that’s a stretch.  Dikembo was so tall and long, and much stronger.  Maybe Theo Ratliff is more realistic, though even that may be hopeful.  Is Keon Clark (without the weed habit) the best analogy?  However you cut it, Varnado figures to be a lean center/power forward who can hopefully run the floor and help on the boards.  But, for a team like the Knicks that have sucked so bad the last few years at blocking shots, he sure would be a refreshing presence.

Brian Zoubek

(Center, Duke) — Duke faithful waited and waited and waited and waited to get something out of the big senior, and finally saw their patience rewarded with a move to the starting lineup in the second half of the season that contributed to Duke’s run to the NCAA championship.

Yeah, he sorta has “big white stiff robot” written all over him, but that’s pretty unfair, especially if he’s being considered as a late second round pick.

Basically, Zoubek’s one skill is offensive rebounding, a skill that translates very well to the next level, and something the Knicks were lacking last year.  Even though he doesn’t come off as a D’Antoni player, this made me thing otherwise…

[ from DraftExpress ]

The country’s most dominant offensive rebounder on a per-minute basis, Zoubek played as important a role as any player in Duke’s journey to a national championship.

Zoubek served as an efficient cog in Duke’s offense, doing a lot of little things to open things up for his teammates. Most of Duke’s halfcourt sets started with Zoubek setting a screen at the top of the key, something he does as well as anyone because of his massive frame , high motor, and great strength.

Zoubek also passes well out of the high post. Duke’s offense frequently went through him on quick ball reversals, where he did an effective job finding the open man at the 3-point line.

Craig Brackins

(Power Forward, Iowa St.) — Brackins saw his numbers decrease in his senior year, after being considered a potential lottery pick last year, but returning to school. Basically, from what I get is, he was the only offensive option on a really bad Iowa St. team. His one thing? He can score. Might be a nice offensive option of the bench.

Luke Harangody

(No position, Notre Dame) — Well, if there is a more unorthodox player in the draft, I don’t know him.  His game is so ugly he doesn’t even have any entertaining YouTube clips to show.  People have no idea what position he’d play in the pros.  But, Harangody is the epitome of college player that can’t do anything more to help his cause.  Despite the illustrious college career, people just can’t figure him out.

He seems to be burdened by the same “Is he athletic enough?” questions that Kevin Love had to deal with.  But, like Love, he has those qualities you just can’t teach (sans the incredible passing).  He has a real nose for the ball and knack for scoring.  He’s like the old dude with knee pads that you’d see at the park when you were 14 and snickered at.  But, then he’d school you, drench you in back sweat, and have you asking yourself, “how is this guy doing this against me?!” He’s that guy. I just don’t know how you don’t draft a guy who’s averaged 20 and 10 for the last three years, been a team leader in the Big East, and can both bang low and knock down the long range jumper.  What am I missing here?

For the Knicks who only have 5 returning players under contract (Gallo, Chandler, Douglas, Curry, and presumably Walker), it’s very likely that the Knicks will pursue the least followed of second round draft strategies: They’ll look to draft accomplished juniors or seniors, who fill a positional need (point guard or center), who’ve shown what they can do, and despite limited “upside” can have a role on the team next year.

At the risk of getting all Dick Vitale on you, more often than not a lot of these accomplished guys end up doing pretty well as NBA role players.  Some even exceed the low expectations.  Afterall, first 5 picks aside, what player doesn’t have question marks?  David Lee and Toney Douglas were late first rounders, but were essentially four year players who proved they were basketball players.  Throughout their careers they had shown consistency, competitiveness, intelligence, work ethic, intangibles, and maybe most importantly, improvement.

With this in mind, Here are 5 accomplished big school guys, and 1 big guy from a small school, who’ve all shown the dedication and will to improve that it takes to make it in the NBA — players the Knicks have the potential to snag in the second round.  I’ll cherry pick quotes from Chad Ford’s and DraftExpress’s profiles.

Artsiom Parakhouski

(Center, Radford) — He seems like a classic late bloomer to me who if he’d stayed in Belarus and played in Europe, instead of being a senior who only played 2-years of college ball, would be a much hotter commodity.

Basically, he played soccer growing up but got big and picked up hoops.  You know he must possess the fabled footwork that all soccer players converted to basketball unquestionably have (a la Hakeem or Dikembe), at least in the eyes of American scouts.  But, in all seriousness, he looks like a fluid dude.  He’s a legit 6′ 11″ and strong.  He has 6% body fat.  Has surprising range.  WTF does this dude have to do to get attention?!

[ from Chad Ford ]

• Legit big man with true center game
• Decent athlete for his size
• Strong rebounder
• Solid shot-blocker
• Good hands
• Nice shooting touch
• Not especially explosive or quick
• Dominating against inferior competition
• Needs to add strength
• Lacks experience

Parakhouski may play for a small school, but he continues to come up big against elite teams. He had 23 and 14 versus Duke and an impressive 21 and 13 against Cole Aldrich and the Kansas Jayhawks.

Sure seems like he has some correctable ‘negatives’ to me.  And, if you look at his game log for this past year he never took a night off consistently putting up big numbers which says something at any level.  And when he played legit big men, he rose to the challenge.  Check him out below, and listen to the DraftExpress interview which shows him to be an affable guy.

Trevor Booker

(Power Forward, Clemson) — This dude seems like a beast of a man.  Think Jason Maxiell.  His numbers dipped in his senior season after a stellar junior campaign, and thus his draft ranking has slid into the second round, but he consistently put up pretty studly numbers.

[ From ESPN's draft blog roundtable ]

Thorpe: I’d lean heavily to Trevor Booker. NBA execs mention Paul Millsap and Carl Landry when they are discussing Booker. Um, hello? Those are two of the top 18 power forwards in the game! Booker has the “beast” mentality with long arms — a perfect combination. If his neck was an inch longer, he’d be a lottery candidate. Who cares about neck length?

Ford: Trevor Booker is a senior with NBA toughness, athleticism and a big-time motor. He won’t be a star in the NBA, but he’ll try to fit into the same mold as DeJuan Blair and Carl Landry.

Fraschilla: Trevor Booker gets my vote too. I have always advocated for second-round selections who have what I call “winning skills.” These are players that bring high energy on the court, a specific high-level skill and are low maintenance off the court. Booker fits this perfectly.

After four years as an ACC starter, he has competed against — and in some cases dominated — guys who are already in the NBA. His power, explosive jumping ability, nose for the ball and experience would make for a great rotation player early in his career on a team like the Celtics. Think of him as a Glen Davis or Leon Powe type, both of whom had knocks on them coming out of college, but helped the Celtics win a title in 2008.

Greivis Vasquez

(Guard, Maryland) — He’s 23, Venezuelan, and a four year senior.  He’s big for a point at 6’6″, but is not quick enough or athletic enough to guard NBA point guards. Athleticism seems to be his biggest knock (in addition to his proclivity to shimmy shake).

[ from Chad Ford ]

• A combo guard who thrives on penetration to the basket
• Excellent feel for the game
• Good passer who can play point guard at least part-time
• Good motor, very competitive
• The kind of competitor who makes all of the hustle plays

[ from DraftExpress ]

Though his average athleticism is a significant obstacle, his unique style of play allows him to succeed at the collegiate level. As we have mentioned before, Vasquez is a point guard with outstanding vision and scoring mentality who has improved considerably throughout his time at Maryland. He is a very high usage player, responsible for over 25% of Maryland’s possessions. This season, he is averaging an outstanding 7.2 assists per 40 minutes pace adjusted alongside a career high 1.9 assist/turnover ratio.

On film, Vasquez is largely the same point guard, adept at running the pick and roll, but perhaps lacking the first step needed to be a great drive-and-dish threat against NBA-level defenders. He is still turning the ball over at a high rate, as well, and his 3.8 turnovers per 40 minutes pace adjusted ranks twelfth among point guard prospects in our database. His vision and passing ability are both outstanding however, as he’s able to find his teammates all over the floor in half-court sets and in transition with the utmost creativity. He has terrific timing on his drives and plays the game at a very unique pace, which helps compensate for his average athleticism.

From what I can tell, it’s his feel for the game that should propel him to a back-up point guard spot.  Judging from the video below, he has a quick 3 point stroke, can run the pick and roll very well and has excellent vision in both full and half court sets.  He looks like a potential PG to me, especially considering his 2:1 assist/turnover ratio.  Crap, he looks a lot better than Marty Collins who’s was a somewhat capable backup in the NBA.  And not to be overlooked, Vazquez has spent four years playing in the ACC against Coach K who advised Mike D to pursue Toney D.  That seemed to have worked out pretty well, so…

Coming in Part 2 I’ll make arguments for the following: Craig Brackins, Jarvis Varnado, Luke Harangody (seriously), and Brian Zoubek (no, really, seriously!)

Lebron has been expected to be a one man show.  And despite all the cliched calls from fans and media that “it’s all about team”, clearly that doesn’t apply to Lebron.  Everyone wanted Lebron to prove he could do it all by himself.  Jordan was long considered a one man show who had to learn how to play team ball.  But, in reality, Lebron has never had 2 teammates half as good as Pippen and Rodman.  Or a coach as good as the often ridiculed Phil Jackson.  Lebron’s teams have simply leaned on him too much and taken all their cues from him.

Fans expected Lebron to simply be able to will his team to a championship.  Just like Jordan did.  Just like Isiah.  Just like Magic or Larry.  But it’s ridiculous.  Basketball has proven time and again to be a team game.  You can say that Hakeem has probably won it all with the least.  But, even he had a team that rose to the occasion.  A team perfectly built to complement Hakeem with are barrage of 3 pointers and great defense.  And, just think how preposterously clutch and nasty Sam Cassell was.  That team had verve.

This Cavs team, Verajao aside, had nothing of the sort.  Shaq was simply old and slow, not to mention withdrawn and distant.  Jamison was destroyed by KG and never gelled with teammates.  Mo Williams had some offensive moments but was destroyed by Rondo.  What was Lebron supposed to do with this cast of characters?

Plain and simple: No one-man-show can do it against what has to be considered the best defensive team in the league for three years running.  Jordan, Kobe, Magic, Larry… none of these guys with this Cavs cast would’ve got by this Celtics team.  It reminds me of a young Jordan being unable to get by the Pistons.

And, it’s not just about this season.  For seven years Lebron hasn’t had a strong enough cast of characters around him.  Nor has he had a cast properly built around him.

So why should he NOT leave Cleveland?!

I’m finally coming around to the fact that Lebron to NY has a real chance of happening.  Forget the latest hot talk about Chicago being the new front runner to land Lebron.  The Jordan shadow is way too strong.  And, really, Chicago just isn’t as exciting as NY from a lifestyle, celebrity and potential money making perspective. And, about all of this Callipari talk, give me a break.

If the Knicks can get Bosh with Lebron, they’d be looking pretty nasty.  Here is your 2010 super-optimistic Knicks depth chart:

PG: LeBron James / Toney Douglas / Sergio Rodriguez (??)
SG: Wilson Chandler / Billy Walker
SF: Danilo Gallinari /
PF: Chris Bosh / Jarvis Varnado (with the 38th pick)
C: Eddy Curry (who magically gets healthy since he’s playing for a contract, the Knicks won’t suck and Lebron is here) / Earl Barron / Artsiom Parakhouski (with the 39th pick)

That’s 11 dudes, with my draft selections, and including Sergio Rodriguez who I’m not too high on keeping.  So here are some potential low cost free agents to round it out:

SF, PF, C:  Tim Thomas – I know that’s weird, but he’s versatile, smart, played well for D’antoni and can probably be had for the minimum.
C, PF: Louis Amundson – Phoenix is going to break the bank to keep Amare, and they have Robin Lopez who starts.  He’d be a nice Verajao-like piece and I have a hard time imagining him get anything more than mid-level money.
PG: Luke Ridnour – Can shoot, and push the pace.  Alongside LBJ his small size and lack of athleticism wouldn’t be exploited.
SG: Kyle Korver – For one obvious reason.  3pt % this year .536.

Here are the other prospective free agents: http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?page=FreeAgents-10-11

Pretty impressive.  It all starts to feel possible.

I think the scariest scenario is still the Nets winning the draft and getting John Wall.  With the new Russian billionaire owner (who’d love to open up the Russian market to Lebron and teach him the ways of a billionaire), actually being in the NY market, a ton of cap space, a studly young center, and a tradeable asset in Devin Harris, New Jersey is potentially more attractive than anywhere else.  But, here’s hoping the Nets don’t land the top pick.

Who can we expect to see back in a Knicks uniform?

Baring inclusion in a blockbuster trade, Gallinari, Chandler, Douglas, and Walker will be back, forming a solid young core.

Gallinari tantalized us with glimpses of how good he can be, but struggled with inconsistency, unselfishness and deferring to veterans who had no place being considered leaders on the team.  We did see, though, is that Danilo has a killer instinct, a willingness to defend the opponent’s best player (and ability to be successful at it), and a truly competitive desire to become a great player. Without all of that veteran dead weight, Danilo will be more willing to take on a leadership role.  Expect his numbers to improve next year, and for him to accept his role as one of the teams main offensive options.

I’m not expecting Wilson Chandler to become a go to guy next year, but he really was able to do it all this season and seemed to improve with every game.  He’s very coachable, has improved his mid-range and post game, shown great defensive ability and versatility, and his overall athleticism make him a keeper.

Douglas and Walker were both pleasant surprises at the guard posltions.  There are some shortcomings (Douglas isn’t exactly a PG), but both were competitive on both ends of the court and showed an ability to hit meaningful shots.  I see their roles expanding next year, too.

Did Earl Barron show enough at the center position to be offered a contract? I definitely think so.  I don’t think he’s the complete answer for the team at center, but he’s certainly an improvement.  It’s actually remarkable that he was able to make a difference and be comfortable in the offense with basically no practices and new teammates who you’d expect him to be out of sync with.  But Earl figured it out fast.  He showed the required effort, intelligence and shooting ability to play in D’Antoni’s offense.

Is Sergio brought back? I have a tough time seeing it.  He was a bit wild and didn’t really read the game that well.  He has ability, and would certainly show improvement if he had a full season with the team under him, but, I just don’t know if it was ‘love’ for coach.

As for the free agents?

I just don’t see Lebron leaving Cleveland.  Even if they lose out in the playoffs.  Cleveland can offer significantly more money.  And as Peyton Manning has shown, Lebron can be marketed plenty without being in NY or Chicago or LA.  Additionally, loyalty to home seems to mean something to him.   Unless Lebron is truly ready for a new chapter, is truly dazzled by the fame and glitz, and has a yearning to reinvent himself (which he has never had to do being in Ohio all his life), I just don’t see it.  But, then again, just typing this paragraph, has convinced me he is coming to NY.  No one knows.  I’ll say this, though.  If he leaves Cleveland, I’ll be stunned if it’s not for the Knicks. Likelihood 40%

Bosh. Ugh.  Not enthusiastic about this one, but Walsh certainly seems to be.  This is a somewhat likely scenario for the Knicks, as there have been some mutterings about a sign and trade for Lee.  Is Bosh really a max guy, though?  Toronto hasn’t been terribly successful with him.  Additionally, Lee sure seemed to have his number in a lot of the matchups this year.  But, Bosh’s D would be an improvement.  With Toronto’s failure to make the playoffs and Bosh seemingly wanting to come stateside, his landing on the Knicks could happen.  But, there are better places for him to go.  Perhaps Miami or Chicago.  Perhaps one of the Texas teams.   I think we can cross him off the list.  Likelihood 40%

Amare. Man, he’s been looking like a beast since the trade deadline past.  Even his woeful defense has improved.  I think he like the desert, likes playing with Nash, and Phoenix is realizing they need to keep him.  Additionally, in Seven Second or Less, Amare seemed to be a bit of a headache for D’Antoni.  I just don’t think he’s coming to the Knicks.  Likelihood 15%

David Lee: Man his offense is so good and keeps improving.  He was essentially the point power forward/center.  But, man, his defense is so painful, frustrating and dreadful!  I can’t help but think he’s ‘good numbers on a bad team’ guy.  Additionally, with Earl Barron, a real center, around his stats seemed to have dipped a bit.  I think the Knicks are looking to shake things up and change the team’s identity.  With a lot of other teams having cap space that they won’t be able to use, he’ll likely get offered more money elsewhere.  I’m thinking he gets scooped up by Oklahoma City, which I think would be awesome.  But, enough can’t be said about how much D’Antoni likes Lee and how much Lee likes New York.  So don’t cross Lee off the list yet.  Likelihood 50%

Carlos Boozer: Hmmm.  With his history, it’s hard not to think Boozer won’t go where the money is.  And, New York might be that place.  But, that place could also be Chicago or Miami.  I just don’t like his health issues.  I also don’t think he’s necessarily a D’Antoni fit.  I offering max money is between him and Bosh, I think the Knicks give Bosh the money.  Likelihood 30%

Joe Johnson. Really, really, really doesn’t seem to be a max money guy, and with Chandler and Gallinari on the roster we should steer clear.  He’s solid, but he’s not 5 years, max solid.  Besides, he seems to like where Atlanta is heading and how Atlanta is a chill place.  Likelihood 20%

Dirk. He’s just making noise.  He’ll stay in Dallas and Cuban will retool the Mavs yet again.  Likelihood 1%

Camby. Already resigned with Portland.  Oh well.  Likelihood 0%

Rudy Gay. Could look good in a Knicks uniform, IF we didn’t already have Chandler and Gallo.  Likelihood 5%.

Ty Thomas. We heard about the Knicks’ intrigue at the deadline and he does have an early termination option that he can exercise.  Not sure where that stands, but I have a hard time imagining him leaving any money on the table.  Likelihood 20%

That’s enough for now.  Next time we’ll talk draft and what the Knicks should try to do with the 38th and 39th picks.

As we know, the major decision from an organizational standpoint is to make a choice on David Lee. To imagine a Lebron James or Dwyane Wade in a pick and roll situation with Lee is pretty crazy to think about, especially if the perimeter is surrounded by shooters.

It would be quite remarkable offensively, to have the 7 seconds or less offense run through Lee, but with superstar talent.  Lee is one of the best passing, decision-making big men on offense.  That said, if Lee is back, it would be absolutely essential to have a true defensive center (who preferably could stroke it from 18 feet out) to counter Lee’s abysmal defense.  Just having Lee play the PF spot defensively would be an improvement.

— Nice read on Danilo Gallinari. There’s been some serious concern about his drop off in play as he’s hit the proverbial rookie wall.  But, comparisons to Dirk’s early development makes one keep it all in perspective.  Yes, Danilo achieving Dirk-like dominating ability is a very best case scenario, but we still have to remember that Danilo is still getting acclimated to the NBA style, still getting used to life in America, and still has a lot of physical maturing to do.  Danilo has the grit to fight through these early challenges and become a special player.

— Toney Douglas is finally back in the picture.  Nice to see him step up and get a shot.  He certainly could improve his court vision, but the only way that’s going to happen is if he gets playtime which will improve his feel for the timing and spacing of real game action.  There’s no reason, TD can’t be as good as Michael Westbrook really.  My hope is that he figures it out the way Chauncy Billups finally figured it out.  At least for now, he shows the required effort, heart, and defense that we want to see.

Are Bosh and Johnson max players?  I don’t think so.  Maybe they are 4/5th’s of a max contract, but not totally maxed out guys.  It’s taken a heck of a surrounding cast to get either Bosh or Johnson to really shine this season, and the Knicks being maxed out would make surrounding them with a solid cast next to impossible.

Will all 4 of these guys get max money?  Probably.  There are a lot of teams that cleared a lot of cap room, and after these 4 guys there aren’t too many good players to spend the money on.  This might be the last time for a team to splurge before the lockout happens.

Is it a disaster if the Knicks don’t sign one of these 4 dudes?  My initial feeling was yes, but the more I think about it, I’m inclined to say no because there is some incredible flexibility to be had with $32 mil to spend.  Next year we’ll have Gallinari, Chandler, Douglas as potential core players returning.   To be optimistic for once, lets say Spanish Chocolate fits in really well, and lets say McGrady shines.   We can pay Chocolate $3 mil, and McGrady $7 mil.   Clearly we need a center.  Looking over this list, maybe Jermaine O’Neal or Camby at $5 mil per is reasonable.  Also, while I’ve soured on Lee big time, we could bring him back at $9 mil per.  That’s $24 mil spent on 4 solid players that actually fit the roster.  Why not pick up Manu Ginobili for $6 mil, too?

Our roster could look like this next year: Gallo, Chandler, Lee, Douglas, McGrady, Sergio, JO, Gino.  Pretty solid.  But, maybe not what Walsh or Knicks fans have in mind.

Clearly, this would be a steep price to pay for McGrady, but this deal is NOT for McGrady, it’s to clear the last remaining cap space needed for the Knicks to obtain two max free agents this summer.  Yes, the price is steep because Donnie is backed into a corner (having made his 2010 free agency plans obvious — how could he have hidden them), but clearing JJ is an absolute must.  No one was taking that Jeffries contract back without a sweetener and Hill is the best non-impact sweetener we have.  Would you rather we include Gallo or Chandler?  Heck no.

The inclusion of draft picks is where a lot of us start to get squeamish and for good reason.  If Donnie comes up empty with the free agent class this summer, this franchise would appear to be toast with no picks to look forward to and no apparent fall back plan.  But, as long as Donnie has the foresight to add lottery protection to any traded picks — an absolute must — then I’m behind the deal.  That way, if we crash and burn we’ll still have those lottery protected picks to save us.  And, remember, in all likelihood we can always just buy some late first round picks in the future (as we bought the Lakers pick which resulted in Toney Douglas).

What do we expect to get out of McGrady though?  Reports have it that this would essential amount to a 30 game try out.  I think there is some truth to that.  It seems more like a risky, if all else fails this summer fall back plan.   I seriously doubt we re-sign McGrady this summer if we can sign Lebron or Joe Johnson or Dwayne Wade, unless it’s on the very cheap.  How cheap will depend on how well he plays out the season, and if there is any market for a fragile, yet talented headcase this summer.

As for McGrady’s impact this season, I’m a bit confused.  We have Gallo and Chandler.  Maybe one of them plays some more 4?  Maybe Gallo gets a little rest since he’s hit a bit of a rookie wall.  Also, with Jeffries being gone, it seems that Jonathan Bender will be back in the mix, and you have to assume that signing Bender was always about creating a backup plan for Jeffries’ eventual departure.  But JJ’s D will sorely be missed, to the point that it will offset any offense McGrady brings to the team.

And, the team’s most pressing need for almost two seasons STILL hasn’t been addressed — we need better PG play!  Can Donnie make something happen for DJ Augustin or Luke Ridnour?  Could Donnie have trumped the Outlaw/Blake for Camby trade being talked about today, with an offer of “all-star” David Lee?  Will Donnie pull the trigger on a Nate Robinson deal, maybe to the Celtics?  With Donnie’s ability to hide his trade intentions from the media, you have to think there is one last move up his sleeve?

Update: This is the best article I’ve seen explaining the cap situation this summer for the Knicks.
http://www.hoopdata.com/recent.aspx?aid=155