War and politics have a way of scrambling signals from what might otherwise be an orderly economic cycle. That can somewhat explain the disconnected economic data you can find in Your Survival Guy’s “Charting Your Course.” But when the data feed is full of noise, sometimes clearer pictures can push their way through. Here are […]

The Many Mixed Signals of the Global Economy
E.J. Smith

According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.5% in May 2026, following a 0.6% rise in April. Over the past twelve months, inflation reached 4.2%, up from 3.8% in April. The increase was largely driven by higher energy prices, which rose 3.9% during the month and accounted […]

US Inflation Rises to 4.2% in May 2026 Amid Higher Energy Costs
Dick Young

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s May 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations shows a mixed but weakening picture of household sentiment. Short-term inflation expectations edged down slightly, while medium- and long-term expectations stayed stable, and expected home price growth rose to its highest level since 2022. At the same time, labor market confidence softened, […]

New York Fed Reports Deteriorating Household Financial Outlook
Dick Young

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports that US existing-home sales rose 3.2% in May 2026 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.17 million, marking the strongest monthly gain of the year and the highest sales pace since December 2025. The increase was driven by improved affordability conditions earlier in the spring, including slightly […]

US Home Sales Rebound to Highest Level Since December
Young Research

Shipowners have placed a record number of orders for very large crude carriers (VLCCs), surpassing the previous peak set in 2008, with 262 supertankers now on order worldwide, Bloomberg reported. The surge is being driven by strong tanker earnings during the current Iran-related disruption, which has pushed charter rates to multi-year highs as rerouted trade […]

VLCC Newbuild Surge Raises Fears of Future Tanker Market Glut
Young Research

When your lazy cash is sitting on your couch, streaming shows, and eating all your food, it makes you wonder if it could lead a more productive life. One thought that comes to mind is using it for yourself, where you take the trips, and you enjoy the fruits of your labor. Yes, it’s expensive, […]

There’s Always Competition for Your Cash
E.J. Smith

Global semiconductor sales reached $110.5 billion in April 2026, up 11% from March and nearly 94% higher than a year earlier, marking the industry’s 14th consecutive month of growth. The strongest annual gains came from the Americas, Asia-Pacific, and China. SIA also endorsed a forecast from the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization projecting global chip […]

AI Infrastructure Fuels Explosive Growth in Semiconductor Market
Young Research

The US trade deficit narrowed slightly to $55.9 billion in April 2026, down 1.2% from March, as exports and imports both increased, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Exports rose to $327.1 billion, driven by higher shipments of capital goods, computers, civilian aircraft, and crude oil, while imports climbed to $383.0 billion, led […]

AI Boom Drives Chip Imports While US Exports Rise
Dick Young

The Times of Israel article, “Why the Houthis Threatening Red Sea Shipping Could Be Worse for the Oil Market This Time,” examines the Houthis’ renewed threat to Red Sea shipping after the Iran-backed group announced a ban on Israel-linked vessels amid escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. The move has raised concerns about global energy […]

Iran’s Red Sea Wild Card: The Houthis Reenter the Fight
Dick Young

Bloomberg examines how the global LNG market is being strained by damage to Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex and broader disruptions linked to conflict in the Gulf. Qatar has long been one of the world’s most reliable LNG suppliers, so any prolonged outage raises significant concerns for energy-importing nations in Asia and Europe. They report […]

Global Gas Markets Face Tight Supply Across Multiple Scenarios
Young Research

You know about diversification. How about its best friend, patience? Such a pretty word. Just rolls off the tongue, doesn’t it? Not so much when you’re telling someone else to be “patient.” It’s like saying, “Why don’t you just relax?” But without patience, compound interest, the seemingly magical formula of making interest on interest, is […]

You Know Diversification’s Best Friend Is Patience
E.J. Smith

A Federal Reserve Bank of Boston paper, “Reassessing the US Economy’s Vulnerability to Oil Shocks,” argues that the United States is much less vulnerable to oil-price spikes than it was during the 1970s. The paper explains that the economy now uses less oil relative to its size, and increased domestic production—especially from shale oil—has reduced […]

Why the US Economy Is Less Vulnerable to Oil Shocks Today
Dick Young

An EIA report, “US Jet Fuel Market Response to Strait of Hormuz Closure,” finds that US jet fuel production has surged to record highs after the Strait of Hormuz closure on February 28 pushed global fuel prices up. Refiners increased output from about 1.7 million barrels per day to over 2.0 million by May, driven […]

US Refiners Boost Jet Fuel Output Amid Global Price Spike
Young Research

A paper by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, “Mexico in US Supply Chains: Lessons from 2018–19 Tariffs,” examines how the 2018–19 US–China tariffs reshaped trade, with Mexico becoming the largest supplier of US imports. It asks whether Mexico’s export surge reflects real competitiveness gains or indirect effects of China relocating production […]

China, Mexico, and the Rewiring of US Supply Chains
Dick Young

Walmart announced a new partnership with Subway that allows customers to order freshly prepared meals from in-store Subway locations through the Walmart app and website. The meals can be delivered in as little as 30 minutes through Walmart’s Express Delivery service and can be combined with grocery and household-item orders in a single delivery. The […]

Walmart’s New Strategy to Integrate Restaurant and Grocery Delivery
Young Research

Done right, diversification can improve portfolio returns while lowering risk. That’s why Harry Markowitz, creator of the Efficient Frontier, called diversification the only free lunch in investing. Why is it then, in my portfolio reviews of prospective clients, that I often encounter a handful of stocks? Because investors tend to sell the “losers” and keep […]

Diversification
E.J. Smith

The US labor market remained stable in May, with nonfarm payroll employment increasing by 172,000 jobs and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent. Employment growth was similar to April’s revised gain of 179,000 jobs, while the number of unemployed people remained largely unchanged at 7.3 million. Job gains were concentrated in leisure and […]

US Job Growth Continues as Unemployment Holds Steady in May
Dick Young

The US Department of Energy announced that Antares Nuclear’s Mark-0 advanced reactor successfully reached criticality at Idaho National Laboratory, marking the first privately developed non-light-water reactor to do so in the United States in more than 40 years. The achievement confirms the reactor’s ability to operate safely and supports future commercial deployments that could begin […]

Antares Reactor Reaches Criticality in Major Nuclear Milestone
Young Research

The May 2026 issue of the Oxford Energy Forum (OEF 149) examines the global energy consequences of the disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz following the US-Israeli attacks on Iran in February 2026. The publication describes the crisis as one of the most severe energy shocks in modern history, with the near-total halt […]

Energy Security in Focus After Hormuz Disruption Crisis
Young Research

When speaking the word opportunity as a parent or grandparent to a child, let’s say, what is spoken and what is heard can be two different matters. An “opportunity” to you may be heard as a “you should do this” statement to another. Who likes being told what to do? Your Survival Guy walked by […]

When Speaking the Word “Opportunity,” It Means This
E.J. Smith