YoYoMama Stock Leads and Market Musings

Your 10 x 10 x CCC Shopping List for 2Q 2012

2012-04-15T14:22:00.001-07:00

For those of you not familiar with my 10 x 10 x CCC series, please see David Van Knapp’s article. It talks about creating a portfolio that in yielding 10% or more yield-on-cost (YOC). Based on this concept, every quarter I publish a “10 x 10 x CCC Shopping List.”

The one list has grown to two. List #1 uses the most recent data available, which is the 1-year growth rate. List #2 will use the most conservative dividend growth rate among all published dividend growth rates (1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year).

PLEASE NOTE: for the lists below, I am not accounting for inflation when considering yield-on-cost. I am using a simple “plug in” on rounded-down numbers.

NEW ON THE LIST:

· BHP Billiton Ltd (BHP)

· Vanguard Natural Resources (VNR)

· El Paso Pipeline Partners (EPB)

· Lorillard, Inc. (LO)

· Arch Coal, Inc. (ACI)

· Western Gas Partners, LP (WES)

DROPPED FROM LIST:

· Intel Corporation (INTC) – yield too low (below 3%)

· Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) – yield too low (below 3%)

· Cheviot Financial Corporation (CHEV) – dividend cut

· Chunghwa Telecom (CHT)

· Eaton Vance (EV) - yield too low (below 3%)

· Shaw Communications - no longer meets 10 x 10 x CCC

· Evercore Partners - yield too low (below 3%)

Here are your choices for 2Q 2012:

10 by 10 x CCC Shopping List:
MOST RECENT DATA (1-year growth rate)

Initial Yield	2%	3%	4%	5%	6%	7%	8%	9%		10%
Annual Growth Rate
4%						8 yrs	5 yrs		2 yrs		1 yr
							VNR		STON		NRGY
											DX
											PNNT
5%					10 yr	8 yrs	4 yrs		2 yrs		1 yr
					BPL	APU			VGR
					TOO
					TAC
6%					8 yrs	6 yrs	3 yrs		1 yr		1 yr
					TGP
7%				10 yr	7 yrs	5 yrs	3 yrs		1 yr		1 yr
				NGLS UNS					TCAP
8%				9 yrs	6 yrs	4 yrs	3 yrs		1 yr		1 yr
				SEP	ETE
9%				8 yrs	6 yrs	4 yrs	2 yrs		1 yr		1 yr
				MO
				WPZ
10%			10 yr	7 yrs	5 yrs	4 yrs	2 yrs		1 yr		1 yr
			AVA	GEL
			ACI
11%			9 yrs	7 yrs	5 yrs	3 yrs	2 yrs		1 yr		1 yr
					CMLP
12%			8 yrs	6 yrs	5 yrs	3 yrs	2 yrs		1 yr		1 yr
					AZN
13%	13	10 yr	8 yrs	6 yrs	4 yrs	3 yrs	2 yrs		1 yr		1 yr
		UGI			ARLP	OHI
14%	12	9 yrs	7 yrs	5 yrs	4 yrs	3 yrs	2 yrs		1 yr		1 yr
		STR
		PRE
		WES
15% +		9 yrs	7 yrs	5 yrs	4 yrs	3 yrs	2 yrs		1 yr		1 yr
		BHP	MDP	RAI
		COP	NVS	AHGP
		NTT	LMT	NCMI
		DLR	TGH	EPB
		DRI	DCM
		HAS	SRE
		SOMH	STRA
		TWGP	CMS
		CEO	LO
		RCI	BIP
		RTN
		EOC
		WMB
		BBL
		WEC

10 by 10 x CCC Shopping List:
CONSERVATIVE DATA (lowest choice from 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-yr growth rates)

Initial Yield	2%	3%	4%	5%	6%	7%	8%	9%	10%
Annual Growth Rate
4%						8 yrs	5 yrs	2 yrs	1 yr
							VNR		DX
									PNNT
5%					10 yr	8 yrs	4 yrs	2 yrs	1 yr
					BPL			VGR
					TOO
6%					8 yrs	6 yrs	3 yrs	1 yr	1 yr
					ETE
7%				10 yr	7 yrs	5 yrs	3 yrs	1 yr	1 yr
				NGLS				TCAP
				GEL
8%				9 yrs	6 yrs	4 yrs	3 yrs	1 yr	1 yr
				SEP		OHI
				RAI
				ACI
9%				8 yrs	6 yrs	4 yrs	2 yrs	1 yr	1 yr
				MO
				BDMS
10%			10 yr	7 yrs	5 yrs	4 yrs	2 yrs	1 yr	1 yr
			MDP	NCMI
11%			9 yrs	7 yrs	5 yrs	3 yrs	2 yrs	1 yr	1 yr
					CMLP
12%			8 yrs	6 yrs	5 yrs	3 yrs	2 yrs	1 yr	1 yr
			TGH		ARLP
					AZN

13%		10 yr	8 yrs	6 yrs	4 yrs	3 yrs	2 yrs	1 yr	1 yr
		DCM
		BBL
		BHP
14%		9 yrs	7 yrs	5 yrs	4 yrs	3 yrs	2 yrs	1 yr	1 yr
		HAS	BIP
		WES
15% +		9 yrs	7 yrs	5 yrs	4 yrs	3 yrs	2 yrs	1 yr	1 yr
		NTT	NVS	AHGP
		DLR	LMT	EPB
		DRI	LO
		RCI	CMS
		TWGP	STRA
		EOC

To Sell or Not to Sell...That is the Question

2011-11-09T08:07:00.000-08:00

"Oh, it seems to me..."sorry" seems to be the hardest word"....

With respect to Elton John, for the investor, "sorry" isn't the hardest word. Its "sell".

What do you do on days like today, where the market throws a hissy fit? What if that hissy is combined with bad news on a stock?

That's where I am today. I was hopeful on a new position in Alaska Communications Systems Group (ALSK) would appreciate. And from a technical standpoint, it was about to break out of a downward channel. Fundamentally, it has a practical monopoly in a market, and there was chatter of a takeover. And the dividend in double digits? It seemed like an almost non-brainer.

Then - WHAM! A perfect storm. The market gets slammed, down 300 points. Alaska the state is slammed with a monster storm. The stock gets slammed by a downgrade.

The question becomes - to sell, or not to sell?

As for ALSK, I've sold. In the course of my investing life, when bad news hits and I sell, even at a loss, with few exceptions I find a better time to either get back in, or redeploy the funds into a more productive issue. I did this with BP (sold within 3 days of oils spill at 10% profit) and HCBK (sold at profit before div cut announcement).

When I haven't sold quickly, it usually doesn't end well.

I learned this the hard way with Armtech Infrastructure (AIIFF). This too is a stock that was beset by inclement weather, to the point that the dividend was eventually suspended. Two days before earnings announcement, I witnessed the stock take a 13% decline. I was completely baffled. I thought...I'll hold on. Tomorrow will be better. The next day, it declined another 20%. I thought...I'm in the hole 30%...I don't want to take the loss, so I'll hold on more. The next day, Armtech announced a dividend cut. The stock plunged about 80%.

And there it sits in my account even today. Even with reinvesting at bottoms, and with a mild stock recovery, it still sits in my account at a 49% loss. A very stark reminder that a small loss taken quickly is better than a large loss that must be endured for months on end.

So, I sold ALSK. It may well rebound, and I may well regret that I lost money on this one...but it's not looking hopeful at this time. But I would rather lick my wounds if they are only skin deep, rather than be in the hospital for a giant knife stab in the back.

Can Investors Learn from Day Traders?

2011-11-08T08:01:00.000-08:00

I have discovered a new outlet for listening to investment news when Bloomberg radio goes on ad infinitim with their preachy PSAs. I've become addicted to "Day Trading Radio".

Not to worry. I haven't gone over to the dark side. I just wanted to listen to something different. I thought...I'm going to disagree with this guy (with the self-serving handle of "Day Trader Rock Star") a lot. Maybe I'll write a rebuttal argument on this character on SA.

Well...I have to say...in spite of what this guy does for a living, I've actually found some usefulness in what he's doing.

For one, he's not trading penny stocks. His modus operandi is - trade quality. I don't agree with the "trade" part. But I do believe in "quality".

I also believe that it behooves investors to locate the very best price they can on their investments...especially if they ever intend to sell.

Here's an example of what turned out to be helpful advice:

I have been watching copper prices for a while. We all know that no sector or stock maintains a downward trajectory forever. When the downward trajectory stops, and the market begins to anticipate a rebound in a stock or sector...that's the time to consider a buy.

A few weeks ago he began promoting a buy on (FCX), which is a quality copper miner. I thought...hmmm...I should begin looking at copper again. Since I prefer a higher yield than FCX offers, the stock on my watch list I looked at was (SCCO).

Sure enough, just as FCX was rebounding, so was SCCO. I thought...I'll give it a try. I took out a small position.

Sure enough, the position appreciated. I later sold at a small profit, and then got back into a full position when the stock made a more confirmable higher low. I now have a nice 7% appreciation on the stock.

I am also learning more about the technical indicators the host thinks is important.

Now...am I advocating to new investors to listen to this guy and act on everything he says? No, absolutely not. Keep your thinking caps on and listen with your built-in "investor" filter.

However, we all can use more tools in our investing toolbox. It pays to understand technical indicators when investing. Understanding technicals doesn't make you a trader...it just makes you a little smarter in your buying and selling.

Anyway, it's a fun listen. You don't have to take his suggestions to heart. But, if you balance what he's saying with your own investment principles, you might learn a few things.

The guy also plays killer music!

Take Care!
YoYoMama, aka Five Plus Investor on Seeking Alpha

Floating Rate Preferreds

2011-11-06T16:36:00.000-08:00

Hello, friends. Thanks for following. My hope is to blog more often than I have recently. Thanks for your patience.

I recently took an interest in floating rate preferred shares, and was researching possibilities on Quantum Online. In terms of share price, they all shared the same trend line...plummeting in August, with a current rebound making higher lows. I smelled a buying opportunity.

One in particular caught my eye, that is ALLY preferred share B. In full disclosure, I placed an order for this share in Friday. Like another floating rate preferred share I hold, Citigroup Preferred Share J (CpJ or C-J), this one has a higher yield than others I researched.

Be forewarned that if you hold these shares within Scottrade, what you will end up holding is ALLYPRB, which doesn't allow for either trading without broker help, or for understanding gain/loss in your Elite account.

Others to consider: Goldman Sachs preferreds (multiple choices with a 4% yield floor)

Disclosure: long CpJ and ALLYpB

How I'm Investing Now

2010-06-07T07:11:00.000-07:00

I have a friend who is a fellow stock market junkie who, on the May 6th market plunge had one comment - "Roller coaster, baby"! (Sorry, dude, if you are reading this!). In other words, the volatility in the market was an opportunity to trade to trade the dips.

I took the plunge in a different way. For me, it was not a signal for "roller coaster", but for "mine shaft elevator"...one way down. There may be blips up along the way, but that does not make those blips tradeable.

The last month has proven me right, and my dear friend wrong (again, sorry dude). Every trading day since May 6th I have made out a buy list. And every day, either the volatility or a drop has signalled to me- no buy.

You are now doubt experiencing a similar angst. I can't tell you how to deal with this market. I can only share how I am coping.

For my brokerage accounts, which are pure dividend portfolios, I haven't sold. Brokerage #1 is invested in tax-free muni CEFs, and Brokerage #2 is invested in 15% low-beta tax-advantaged issues. Brokerage #1 is reduced in capital appreciation, but only slightly. Brokerage #2 is actually increased in value. I will take advantage of the market drop and continue to reinvest and DCA.

For my IRA, which employs a mixed capital appreciation and dividend strategy, I am currently in 50% cash. This has kept me within a 7% stop loss from my portfolio high, which beats the current market drop of 13%. I have re-swizzled and sold off more volatile issues, and plowed more into stable preferreds (MHRpC, EIFZF, CHSCP).

I am, for now, giving up on taking new positions in common stocks. Instead, I am have placed GTC (Good Until Cancelled) orders on more stable, low beta preferreds. I am placing the purchase price within 10% of their historic low.

By employing GTC orders I can step back from the market chaos. I can relax and know if an order is triggered the stock will not significantly depreciate. I can also be paid a handsome dividend at minimal risk.

My GTC orders for my IRA are:

EDT for $26.80
BBTpB for $27.00
DRU for $26.90
TLT for $91.00
SYBTP for $11.50
GDLpA for $53.25

Low Beta and Stable Dividend Issues

2010-05-18T18:42:00.000-07:00

When Mother Nature throws a tantrum, she doesn't fool around. Take your standard volcano. They shake the earth to it's core, tumbling weak buildings, cracking the earth. Eruptions of black smoke cloud visibility across miles and countries. Spewing hot lava sends wildlife scattering for cover. All mankind can do is stand back, watch, cope, and let Mother Nature do her thing.

Mother Nature and Mr. Market aren't much different. When Mr. Market throws a tantrum, the weaker holdings in your portfolio get shaken down, and in the heat of the moment, it's very difficult to see what your next steps should be. Oftentimes the best thing to do when Mr. Market melts down is to run for the cover.

But what should that cover be? Stick with declining holdings and hope for the best? Or go all cash, which yields 0% return?

I would propose that one need not do either in entirety. There are potentially safer issues out there that may help stabilize and grow a portfolio.

I have been seeking out issues with the following criteria:
   ** No more than 10% historical depreciation from current price point (using last 2 years)
     ** Higher than 5% yield
     ** Low beta score, or volatility score (all are under "1")

I have already highlighted in previous posts two clear winners:

MHRpC - Magnum Resources, an oil and gas company, preferred shares. Has never depreciated from its current price point more than 2%. It is right at call, priced at $25.00, and yields 10.24% in tax-advantaged (15% tax rate) dividends.

SYBTP - S.Y. Bancorp Cumulative Trust Preferred shares. It closed at its lowest point in 2 years in March 2009 at $10.60 per share. Financial shares are taking a beating, and this stable performer dropped Tuesday to $11.52 per share, bringing the price point well into the 10% window of appreciation. The yield on this non-tax advantaged issue is 8.40%.

Today I am adding a few more low beta point winners:

GDLpA - Gabelli Global Deal tax-advantages (15% tax rate) preferred shares. This issue traded at its lowest point in February at $50.79, which also happened to be when the fund was introduced. Since then it has climbed to, and maintained, a fairly stable price point between $53 - $54 dollars. Click Here to read more about the fund. Current dividend is 7.94%.

EIFZF - Exchange Income Corporation, a Canadian investment company. This little known issue pays monthly dividends in the strong Canadian dollar. It traded at its lowest point close to issuance, at $13.45. With a current price point of $14.16, this issue has a 5% variance from its lowest point, and sports a 10.70% dividend. According to its website, EIFZF will maintain its 15% tax advantaged status after 2011. For more information, Click Here.

CHSCP - Cenex Harvest States Cooperative Cumulative Redeemable preferred, offering tax-advantaged divdends (15% tax rate), currently yielding 7.23%. This agricultural stock bottomed out at its lowest point in early November 2008 to $24.50. At its current price point it is right at our 10% potential depreciation cutoff.

Honorable mention:

TLT - I-Shares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Fund. This issues plays upon bear market fears and the flight to the safety of treasuries. This could be an alternate to shorting ETFs, few if any which pay dividends. This fund rises in bear markets, sometimes spiking wildy in panics, creating opportunities for reaping capital appreciation if you're nimble. This one started the 2007 bear market at about $83 per share. The recommended jump-in price is $90.00 and under, when the yield gets into the 5% range, although if you are truly fearful you could jump in now. The current yield is 4% - not exciting, but reliable.

STDpE - Santander Finance preferreds, profiled in a previous post. The market shakedown has brought this to historical lows right now. Whether or not you view this as a buy depends on your view of Spain and the euro. There is probably more downside to come, but when the situation in Europe stabilizes, this normally stable issue is likely to rise accordingly, thanks to exposure to Latin America markets. Keep it on your watch list.

Disclosure: long MHRpC, GDLpA, CHSCP and EIFZF.

More Technical Considerations for Buy / Sell Decisions

2010-05-14T05:55:00.000-07:00

The last two entries of my blog profiled easy technical analysis and free websites that I use to make buy and sell decisions. Today I will tie the bow on the package with some final thoughts.

Watch the Market - Is the market going up, or down? This is a key question in buy / sell decisions, as 70% of stocks follow the market. Determining market direction can be as easy as plugging the SPY or DIA into Finviz. Plugging these ETFs into Finviz shows the market is still channeling up, and a good time to buy long was last week, when the market hit the support line.

Sell (or Buy) on Bad News - BP was a holding of mine until the oil spill. I sold within 3 days of the news at a 9% profit. It has since plummeted below my sell price and shows no sign of a bottom. Determining whether you want to buy or sell into bad news depends on your time frame and your goals. Want a quick profit or quickly cut your losses? Then sell. Is this a core holding? Then buy when the news bottoms the stock out.

Buy on a Dividend Ex-Date - A popular way of reaping dividends is buying right before a dividend ex-date, then selling at or after the ex-date. This is a non-starter. The stock rises before the ex-date, then plummets right on or after the ex-date. Instead, buy ON the ex-date, and early on the trading day, when the stock inevitably takes a dip. Then hold. Doing so insures you will get a much lower price than buying before an ex-date. If the stock is trending up, you can reap the dividend later, WITH capital appreciation.

Buy Early on the Trend - I counseled in a previous post to buy on a support line of a channel up. I need to add - buy early on the trend. Preferably at the first time the stock shows an upwards trend on the support line. This is tricky, and inevitably one will not get all the buys right. But coupled with good news this is a good way to get in early on a stock that is trending up.

Sign up for Scottrade Elite or other Streaming Quote - A stock makes many moves in any trading day. To insure you get the lowest price, sign up for streaming quotes. You can then watch the intraday moves and buy on an intraday dip, or sell on an intraday high.

Keep a Watch List - I make printouts of stocks on Finviz or Scottrade, and have a giant pile of papers that I keep track of. You may prefer keeping a digital list within your brokerage account. However you do it, keep track of the issues you are interested in.

Keep a "Bottom Feeding" List - These are good stocks gone bad. The tankers. The stinkers. Unless a business is going bankrupt or is badly managed, in many cases eventually the stock will come back. BP is an example - excellent company with great prospects...bad season right now. Sometimes an issue gets unfairly punished just by being in an unpopular sector. Be a contrarian. Watch the unlovables. Sometimes they get lovely again.

Watch Your Holdings - Plug all your current holdings once a week into Finviz or your brokerage account chart tools to see how they are trending. If a holding is tanking, find out the reason why. Make sure you have news alerts sent to your email box. Buy and hold and never think about it is dead. Stay on top of what you have purchased. Sell if you need to.

Buy Increasing Dividends - Finding out about dividend history of a stock is as easy as googling your stock symbol with the words "dividend history". If you buy a solid company with increasing dividends, it will give you more peace of mind about holding through tough times.

Keep Up with Economic News and Policy Decisions - This can be as easy as listening to Bloomberg Radio during your work day. The economic climate will affect your holdings. Find out what sectors will be profitable in the coming months, and what to avoid. Read the Wall Street Journal and Investor's Business Daily. Avoid CNBC, Jim Cramer and any television show recommending stocks.

Determine a Stop Loss - Not just for individual stocks, but for your entire portfolio. My stock stop loss is negative 5%; my portfolio stop loss is 10% from any portfolio top - meaning I will never lose more than 10% value in my total portfolio.

During the crashes of November 2008 and March 2009, a had no portfolio stop loss. I took quite a beating. While many dividend investors say they have made up these losses, I will venture to say that most have not. If you don't want to risk losing your capital, determine a portfolio stop loss. When the market shows sings of tanking, sell your losers, stragglers and top off your winners. Last week I ended up selling to 70% cash in order to prevent my portfolio from crashing beyond a 10% stop loss. While many of my previous holdings have since risen back to close their original price, for me it was worth the risk to preserve my peace of mind. Cash is always king, and is always the best cushion for a bad market.

NEXT WEEK - More issues that provide a margin of safety in a bad market.

Easy Free Tools for Technical Analysis

2010-05-11T06:36:00.000-07:00

The previous day's blog looked at easy technical analysis for buy and sell decisions. Today we are exploring the web's easy, free tools for applying these technical terms to everyday investing.

Finviz - This free website is a chartist's dream. The free content on the website offers easy to read charts with channels and support lines. The screener is the best-in-class for free tools on the web, allowing you to screen not only for the fundamentals, but also for technicals.

Still don't understand channels, support and resistance? Pull up Finviz. Type in the stock search box, NGLS. This will pull up the chart for Targa Resources partners. This is the kind of chart one wants to see for a good buy. The stock makes higher highs and higher lows, and the "channel" this makes is clearly marked. Want to get in on this stock? Simply wait until the price hits the bottom line of the channel - that's support. Better yet, wait until the stock is moving back up...if it breaks support going down, that's not a good sign.

Now, pull up the chart for OTE - Hellenic Communications, a Greek telecom stock. This stock is making lower highs and lower lows. The combination of bad news out of Greece, and the fact this stock is channeling down, tells you to avoid or short the stock. Even if the fundamentals of the company were strong, the technicals tell you this is not a time to buy.

Scottrade - You do not need to hold an account to use Scottrade's technical tools, just register. When you search a stock, you can click on the tab that says "chart". Here is where you can plug in moving averages, RSI, DMI and a host of other technical devices. Scottrade will then interpret the chart for you on the right hand side of the chart.

Americanbulls - The ultimate in simplicity. Plug in your stock, and it gives you a buy, sell, hold or wait. I wouldn't use this tool ALONE to make your decisions, as it will give you buy signals for stocks that are going down. Instead, you can use it to confirm a buy or sell AFTER you have used other tools for your decision.

InvestorPoint - Can't find information or charts on a particular OTC, pink sheets or preferred stock? This virtually unknown site is a wealth of knowledge and is particularly helpful for lesser known issues like pink sheets and preferreds, providing not only fundamental information but simple helpful charts.

QuantumOnline - The standard-bearer site for preferred stock information. There are no charts here, but if you are interested in issues that fly under the radar, this is the place to go.

Easy Technical Analysis for Buy / Sell Decisions

2010-05-04T06:42:00.000-07:00

There are all sorts of advanced techniques used by expert traders to for buy / sell decisions. You've got your Elliott Wave, your Fibonacci series, your T2 stops, your internal dymamics, your RSI Scale-out System, and my favorite, "The Turtle".

Me? I got K.I.S.S. - Keep It Simple, Stupid.

I follow a few simple techniques, using free tools, looking at simple patterns, to make my trades.

Easy Trends and Patterns - Determining whether a stock is a buy or sell can be as easy as a few simple chart patterns and indicators:

     a. Channel Up / Channel Down - When a stock is a good
          candidate for a long buy, it will have higher highs and
          higher lows. This forms a tube-like "channel", with
          support and resistance lines, that points upward. A
          stock that is a good candidate to short or avoid for
          longs will channel down with lower highs and lower
          lows.

     b. Support / Resistance Lines - The top and bottom lines
          of a channel are support and resistance. If you are
          long and want to make the best price, buy at the
          bottom line - support - on as the stock is trending back
          up. You don't want to buy at resistance, or the top line.
          It's like paying retail for an item then discovering it
          goes on sale next week...

     c. Moving Averages - A moving average charts the price
         movement of a stock over a set period of time, usually
         20, 50 and 200 days. A stock is a good buy just after
         it crosses upwards from a moving average. If it crosses
         under, it is a candidate for an avoid or sale.

     d. Volume - You can tell what the market of a stock by
          volume. It's simple. If a stock has more buyers, the
          stock moves higher; more sellers, lower. Don't fight
          volume.

   e. Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) - Measures trend
          strength on a scale of 1 to 100. The lower the number,
          the more bearish the trend. Don't buy below 30. Best
          time to buy is between 30 and 50. Best time to avoid
          or sell is above 70.

     f. Stochastics - Measures whether the stock is overbought
         or oversold. An oversold condition is unsustainable and
         a potentially good time to buy, but I wait until the stock
         is neither oversold or overbought. Avoid or sell when
         overbought.


     g. Directional Movement Index (DMI) - Measures when a
          stock becomes bullish or bearish. Buy early when it
          crosses the bullish line. Crossing the bearish line is an
          avoid or sell.


Tomorrow's blog: easy free tools that make technical analysis easy.

In The News and On The Ropes

2010-05-03T06:21:00.000-07:00

A country on the verge of collapse...an oil company associated with a deadly explosion and oil spill...a financial powerhouse facing criminal indictment...

Disasters? Or opportunities?

Plow your money in right now, and it 's probably disaster. But if the fundamentals of the company are basically sound, opportunity awaits the patient.

The following three entities have dividend issue that is worth placing on a watch list:

NBGpA - National Bank of Greece 15% tax-advantaged preferred. This one is quite volatile, experiencing whipsaw 5 - 10% fluctuations within any given trading day. The National Bank of Greece may be less exposed to it's own country's sovereign debt than other European banks, but it is still a parcipant, see: http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-04-27/greek-bank-ratings-cut-to-junk-at-s-p-after-downgrade-of-greece.html. The 12% dividend make this one worthy of a watch list, but extreme caution is warranted. May have much more downside to come, and that hefty dividend may be subject to suspension.

BP - British Petroleum. Within a few days of news of the oil spill I sold out of this one at a 9% profit. Glad I did. It has since dipped below support (and my own buy price), and may continue down for some time. Commodities may be the safest place to hide during a market downturn, so I do believe investors will rush back in when the news is better. Currently the dividend is 6+% with increases every 1 to 2 years.

GSpB - Goldman Sachs 15% tax-advantaged preferred. This issue is still pricey compared to it's three year history and there is more drama to come with a possible criminal indictment for Goldman Sachs. This issue also declined over 100% from May 2007 - March 2009, so I am not sure this one can be categorized as "safe". However, it is Goldman - an earnings powerhouse - the issue carries a current 6.5% dividend, and is worthy of a watch list.

Jeepers, Creepers, You Are Not Leapers!

2010-04-29T07:21:00.000-07:00

I have been following the Greek saga with both concern and a bit of amusement. Having an interest in high yield and preferreds, the National Bank of Greece's preferred (NBG-A, NBG.PRA, NBGpA) has been on my watch list a while. It was severely depressed over the last couple of days, then sent out a buy signal for today.

At open today, it all played out as I feared. It immediately shot up at open $1.10 from close price. Now, 30 minutes into the market, it has sunk back to nearly yesterday's close price. Those suckered into the buy signal at open were suckered into a 5% loss.

It reminds me of a great saying for timing your buy - "buy the creepers, sell the leapers."

With volatility coming back into the marketplace, what high yield issues are creeping along support, providing a stable climb in capital appreciation and a nice dividend?

I found three winners on my watch list. These are creeping slowly up on the support lines, and did not plummet with the market a few days ago.

NRP: MLP which owns and manages coal properties, as well as coal transportation and infrastructure. It is not a mining stock. It sports a 8.45% dividend, and is a frequent dividend raiser. It recently announced a public offering, which shot the stock off of resistance lines. It is now creeping back up on support.

JGT: Closed end monetary CEF. This CEF evenly splits holdings between US and foreign currencies such as Brazil and Israel. Expenses are modest at 1.07%, and the dividend healthy at 9.8%.

TAXI: This stock has a perfect creeper chart! It's moniker also perfectly describes what this company - Medallion Financial - does, and that is provide financing to commercial taxis. After months of volatility this issue has settled into a pattern since early March of climbing upont support. It sports a 7.42% dividend, even with a divy haircut in 2010.

Disclosure: long TAXI

More Potentially Safe Preferreds

2010-04-28T06:50:00.000-07:00

Yesterday we experienced a 200+ point decline on the DOW, with a close below 11,000. Warning bell...or capitulation? The market is up today, but it is still time to think about capital preservation.

There aren't many options for a long in a bear market. Hang on to your winners and DCA; go all or partial cash; or change teams and go all or partial short. If you are like me, your brain short-circuits on the last option...most fundamental longs' brains don't compute with shorts.

That leaves fundamental longs with the first two options. I am more comfortable with the second option - keep partial cash on the sidelines.

But what to do with the cash? Should it just sit in your account? Or earn 1 - 3% in either a brokerage sweep account or CD?

For this high yield investor, these options aren't very appealing!

So I began a quest for safer high yield vehicles. "Safer" would be those issues which which have proven historically not significantly depreciate through another market fall.

Yesterday, I found a clear winner: MHRpC. This oil / gas issue has never declined more than 2%. It is priced at call right now - $25.00. It has a current yield of 10.24%. Buying right now is equivalent to locking in a CD with a variable interest rate of 8 - 10%!

Excited with this find, I searched quantumonline.com for other potential issues. The criteria I chose:

At or Under Call Price
Current Yield % Exceeds Historical Depreciation% Over 2 Year Period

It proved to be too big a task. The market is still overheated. I could not locate another issue besides MHRpC that is at or under call with such a history.

But I do have two watch lists for you. As you increase your cash position, consider these:

Preferreds Over Call With No Significant History of Depreciation

STDpE - Santander Finance Preferred. Problems in Europe keep me from getting too excited about this one (it dropped upon market open today). Nonetheless, this issue has been fairly consistent. It's lowest point is only 2% below current market price. It sports a fab 9.63% yield. The call is not until 2014. My concern would be that news from Europe would mean this issue will see new lows from here.

SYBTP - S.Y. Bancorp, Inc. - This one is pretty much "Even Steven". It has seen a historical decline of about 8% and sports about an 8% yield.

Preferreds for a Watch List

The following preferreds have a decent history but are at too high a price point to consider at this time:

BGLEI - BGLEH - BGLEN - BGLEP - CHSCP - CNTHP - DQUEK - EEXXF - HLpB -OKSBP - PPWLM - SCMFO - SDOpH - SDOGI - VELPI

These all present options to watch. When the yield exceeds 3% of the historical depreciation, it may present a great buy opportunity in a falling market.

A Preferred Share Find That's Safe at the Top

2010-04-27T07:28:00.000-07:00

Yesterday I looked at 15% tax advantaged preferred shares with a margin of safety in a downturn. We discovered utility preferreds, three of which should not historically decline more than 10 - 12% from their current price point.

This morning I was scouting for a safe taxable preferred for my largest IRA. I was again looking for an issue with a sound margin of safety that would not decline more than 10% from this point. I also want to purchase at or under call. I found a solid winner.

Magnum Hunter Resources Corporation is an oil and gas exploration company. The ticker symbol for the preferred shares is MHR.C, MHRPRC or MHRpC. Today this issue is exactly at its call price of $25.00. It sports a fantastic 10.24% dividend. In terms of liquidity, I had no issues at all in having my limit order fulfilled.

But here's the real kicker - this issue has NEVER in the two year history I traced been below a market price of $24.50. That's only 50 cents below call! AMAZING!

Barring unforeseen bad news there appears to be little to no downside in owning shares of this preferred.

Disclosure: Long MHRpC

Investing at the Top

2010-04-26T06:40:00.000-07:00

Investing is so much fun. Why limit yourself to just one brokerage portfolio?

Such was the thinking when I opened yet another brokerage account last week. The first brokerage account focuses only on tax-free muni CEFs and one tax free MLP. The portfolio holds the following:

ATAX (an MLP, most recent purchase), 9.01% dividend
APX     5.96% dividend
FMN 6.94% dividend
KTF     6.91% dividend
NMZ     7.60% dividend
OIA     6.37% dividend
PMF     7.15% dividend

I have since discovered 15% tax-advantaged trust preferreds on quantumonline.com. I thought, let's keep the portfolio clean. I will open a second brokerage which will focus only on 15% tax-advantaged issues.

Then...I remembered. The time to get on the rollercoaster is when it hits the bottom. Not at the top.

The longer this rally goes on, the more uncomfortable I am with buying new shares. The typical historical trend for bull runs in secular bears is between 1-1/4 to 1-3/4 years. In other words, we're getting to the top of the rollercoaster. Therein is the dilemna...I want in on trust preferreds, but am not anxious to have that investment depreciate significantly within a few months.

I then remembered a particular issue I discovered a while back. In the last two years, which included two significant market dips, this issue only depreciated 10% under from the original issuance price.

Friends, that is an investment that allows you to sleep at night when the market is tanking!

The issue is Pacific Gas and Electric Company's preferred - symbols PCG-A, PCG.PRA, PCGpA. In November 2008 and March 2009, the price dipped down to only $22.50 - exactly 10% below the issued price of $25.00. As for current market price, it's not overpriced at $25.66, but it is still above the call price of $25.00.

I'm not a big fan of buying over call, so I turned my attention to the sector as a whole - utility company preferreds. I conducted a new search on quantumonline with these parameters:
     UTILITY Company Preferred
     15% Tax Advantaged
I then used the tools in my Scottrade account to hone in on those issuances that had these properties:
     No more than 10% variance UNDER issuance price
     Currently UNDER call price

The search turned up one winner - San Diego Gas & Electric Company preferreds - symbol SDOGI (pink sheets). As of Friday, April 23rd it was priced at $25.10. The call price is actually $25.80, which is above the issuance price of $25.00, making this under call. It sports a nice 6.7% dividend, and your dividend will only be taxed at 15%. Best of all, when the market falls, if SDOGI sticks to its trend, the market price should not fall below $22.00, which is just slightly more than 10% depreciation. NOTE: Some brokerages, esp. low cost brokerages, do not allow trading on pink sheets.

Another utility preferred to consider, in addition to PCG-A and SDOGI, is Georgia Power Company preferred - symbols GP-A, GP.PRA and GPpA. It is currently over call by 35 cents, but it is the only other utility preferred located in my search that did not depreciate more than 10% in a market free fall.

For those concerned with taking out new holdings at the top of this rollercoaster, utility preferreds are most certainly worth your consideration.

Disclosure: no positions

Welcome to YoYoMama Stocks!

2010-04-25T11:41:00.000-07:00

Hello, friends! Welcome to my blog. I'm known as "YoYoMama" on Seeking Alpha. I spend about 1 to 2 hours every day researching investment opportunities for my own portfolios. I LOVE investing! I have so many "eureka" moments every day in this rich field of study that I decided - why not share my eureka moments with you!

The author of this blog is not a professional, an analyst or an economist. I am a business owner, wife and mother. I have made all the classic investing mistakes - buying high/selling low, buying the hot sectors, panicking at the bottom, ignoring the technicals, falling in love with a sector or stock and unable to sell. I will say this much - I am embarrassed to tell you my YOY average was BEFORE I got the hang of things!!

So while the year 2008 was extremely painful for me (and for most of you), through it I learned a system that works for me. In fact, on my primary portfolio, I have increased the market value 120% since the market bottom in March 2009. That's with NO money in...only trading.

So begins this journey of discovery. I hope you enjoy the blog.

Happy Trading,
Denise, a/k/a YoYoMama