/zhaber/blog/posts

Counterfactual thinking

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Mon, 16 Feb 2015 17:00:00 +0000

In the case of Olympic Medalists, counterfactual thinking explains why bronze medalists are often more satisfied with the outcome than silver medalists. The counterfactual thoughts for silver medalists tend to be how they could have done things differently in order to have achieved the gold medal. This allows them to over think what they did wrong rather than focus on the accomplishment. Whereas for bronze medalists, they tend to counterfactual think about how they could have not received a medal at all. This allows for them to feel accomplished that they placed at all.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counterfactual_thinking#Examples

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Thu, 15 Dec 2011 23:47:00 +0000

Without pen and paper try to guess the answer to the following problem: "One in a thousand people has a prevalence for a particular heart disease. There is a test to detect this disease. The test is 100% accurate for people who have the disease and is 95% accurate for those who don't (this means that 5% of people who do not have the disease will be wrongly diagnosed as having it).

If a randomly selected person tests positive what is the probability that the person actually has the disease?"

Answer: 2%. It should be positive for 50 people from 1000 but only for one of them the test will not lie (select the white text)

One more experiment for those who found the task interesting.

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Sun, 27 Nov 2011 04:26:00 +0000

The notion of beauty is relative and the term completely looses its sense when we take subjects from different species. Take a nice peacock's tail for instance. Oh, I said nice? his enemies would not say so. While peacock's plumage looks cute for humans and sexually attractive for peahens, when he displays feathering to an enemy, such as a small dog, from the predator's perspective it looks like there are thousands of blazing eyes staring at it from a meter height and the dog often retreats.

In other words beauty is subjective, and it is also true for words like good / easy / clear / useful / hard / interesting / etc as the same object can be treated differently by different people. So always ask yourself good / easy / .. for whom or for what?

Learned helplessness

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Sun, 07 Aug 2011 23:33:00 +0000

In 1965, psychologists Mark Seligman and Steve Maier conducted an experiment in which three groups of dogs were placed in harnesses. Dogs from group one were released after a certain amount of time, with no harm done. Dogs from group two were paired up and leashed together, and one from each pair was given electrical shocks that could be ended by pressing a lever. Dogs from group three were also paired up and leashed together, one receiving shocks, but the shocks didn’t end when the lever was pressed. Shocks came randomly and seemed inevitable, which caused “learned helplessness,” the dogs assuming that nothing could be done about the shocks. The dogs in group three ended up displaying symptoms of clinical depression. Later, group three dogs were placed in a box with by themselves. They were again shocked, but they could easily end the shocks by jumping out of the box. These dogs simply “gave up,” again displaying learned helplessness.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Learned_helplessness

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Tue, 07 Jun 2011 01:52:00 +0000

When we began the research project, we expected to find that the first step in taking a company from good to great would be to set a new direction, a new vision and strategy for the company, and then to get people committed and aligned behind that new direction. We found something quite the opposite.

The executives who ignited the transformations from good to great did not first figure out where to drive the bus and then get people to take it there. No, they first got the right people on the bus (and the wrong people off the bus) and then figured out where to drive it. They said, in essence, "Look, I don't really know where we should take this bus. But I know this much: If we get the right people on the bus, the right people in the right seats, and the wrong people off the bus, then we'll figure out how to take it someplace great."

From good to great, Jim Collins

A few words about homeopathy

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Fri, 20 May 2011 02:24:00 +0000

Although there are several different approaches, homeopathy generally involves first finding a cure by the principle of similars, which says that the remedy should be of a substance known to create the very symptoms the patient is already suffering. Then that remedy is diluted in water or alcohol to the point where the solution handed to the patient contains no molecules of the original remedy.

A typical homeopathic dilution is done in ratios of one part of the substance to ninety-nine parts alcohol or water (depending on whether the substance is soluble in water). This process is repeated—a dilution of one part of the original solution to ninety-nine parts water or alcohol—again and again. It’s quite normal to do this thirty times—this is called a 30C dilution. That means, if you started by dissolving a tiny amount of your remedy in around fifteen drops of water, you would end up with the original substance diluted in a volume of water fifty times bigger than the Earth. The big scientific problem with this is that when the homeopathic pharmacist sells you a few milliliters of this remedy, the math of chemistry tells you there is virtually no chance that it contains a single molecule of the original substance.

13 Things that don't make sense

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Sun, 24 Apr 2011 16:45:00 +0000

The people of India, having been pestered by monkeys over the years, developed an ingenious way of trapping them. They would dig a long, narrow hole in the ground and then use an equally long, slender object to widen the bottom of the hole. Then they would pour rice down into the wider portion at the bottom of the hole. Monkeys like to eat. In fact, that’s a large part of what makes them such pests. They’ll jump onto cars or risk running through large groups of people to snatch food right out of your hand. People in South India are painfully aware of this. (Believe me, it’s surprisingly unsettling to be standing serenely in a park and have a macaque come suddenly barreling through to snatch something from you.) So the monkeys would come along, discover the rice, and stretch their arms deep into the hole. Their hands would be at the bottom. They would greedily clutch as much of the rice as possible into their hands, making a fist in the process. Their fists would fit into the larger portion of the hole, but the rest of the narrow opening was too small for the monkeys to pull their fists through. They’d be stuck. Of course, they could just let go of the food, and they’d be free. But monkeys place a high value on food. In fact, they place such a high value on food that they cannot force themselves to let go of it. They’ll grip that rice until either it comes out of the ground or they die trying to pull it out. It was typically the latter that happened first.

This story illustrates a concept of value rigidity. Value rigidity is what happens when you believe in the value of something so strongly that you can no longer objectively question it. Now what are your rigid assumptions?

Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance, Robert M. Pirsing

Be the Worst

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Sun, 17 Apr 2011 21:05:00 +0000

Legendary jazz guitarist Pat Metheny has a stock piece of advice for young musicians, which is Always be the worst guy in every band you’re in. Be the worst guy in every band you’re in. Before starting my career in information technology, I was a professional jazz and blues saxophonist. As a musician, I had the good fortune of learning this lesson early on and sticking to it. Being the worst guy in the band means always playing with people who are better than you.

The Passionate Programmer, Chad Fowler

Why do people get dizzy if spun around?

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Sat, 29 Jan 2011 04:05:00 +0000

There is fluid in your inner ear canals that keeps your equilibrium in check, which keeps you balanced. As you move your head, the fluid moves around and it takes the fluid time to level out.

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Sat, 22 Jan 2011 18:38:00 +0000

There is a widely told joke in the computer industry that goes like this: A man is flying in a small airplane and is lost in the clouds. He descends until he spots an office building and yells to a man in an open window, "Where am I?" The man replies, "You are in an airplane about 100 feet above the ground." The pilot immediately turns to the proper course, spots the airport, and lands. His astonished passenger asks how the pilot figured out which way to go. The pilot replies, "The answer the man gave me was completely correct and factual, yet it was no help whatsoever, so I knew immediately he was a software engineer who worked for Microsoft, and I know where Microsoft's building is in relation to the airport."

Inmates Are Running the Asylum, Alan Cooper

On the picture Microsoft staff 1978.

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Wed, 19 Jan 2011 22:59:00 +0000

The Backspace key has its origin in typewriters where a typist would, for example, type a lowercase letter A with acute accent (á) by typing a lowercase letter A, Backspace and then the acute accent key. Since then the functionality has changed, but the name remains the same.

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Sat, 15 Jan 2011 19:38:00 +0000

An anecdote from IBM's Yorktown Heights Research Center. When a programmer used his new computer terminal, all was fine when he was sitting down, but he couldn't log in to the system when he was standing up. That behavior was 100 percent repeatable: he could always log in when sitting and never when standing.

Most of us just sit back and marvel at such a story; how could that terminal know whether the poor guy was sitting or standing? Good debuggers, though, know that there has to be a reason. Electrical theories are the easiest to hypothesize: was there a loose with under the carpet, or problems with static electricity? But electrical problems are rarely consistently reproducible. An alert IBMer finally noticed that the problem was in the terminal's keyboard: the tops of two keys were switched. When the programmer was seated he was a touch typist and the problem went unnoticed, but when he stood he was led astray by hunting and pecking.

"Programming Pearls" by Jon Bentley

Black side of Newton

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Mon, 10 Jan 2011 14:38:00 +0000

Usually we talk about Isaac Newton as a good man, but according to our today's moral norms he was a kind of tyrant.

For 30 years Newton was a Master of the Mint and his decision influenced many people lives. For example, coin clipping at those times was punished by dead penalty and all such cases were attributed to him. Thus he had hang to hand hundreds people a big fraction of which just tried to feed their families. So despite his huge contribution to science, he was quite a cruel person. This kind of behavior can give us a clear picture of "humanistic" environment that was common in those ages, that even so brilliant person considered such treatment to be usual.

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Sat, 25 Dec 2010 21:32:00 +0000

The biblical proscription against usury goes all the way back to Moses. The rule was simple: you couldn't charge interest on a loan to anyone in your tribe. Strangers, on the other hand, paid interest. This isn't a matter of ancient biblical archeology; the edict against interest stuck for thousands of years, until around the time of Columbus.

It's worth taking a minute to understand the reasoning here. If money circulates freely within the tribe, the tribe will grow prosperous more quickly. I give you some money to buy seeds, your farm flourishes, and now we both have money to give to someone else to invest. The faster the money circulates, the better the tribe does. The alternative is a tribe of hoarders, with most people struggling to find enough resources to improve productivity.

Obviously, there's another force at work here. When I make an interest-free loan to you, I'm trusting you and giving you a gift at the same time. This interaction increases the quality of our bond and strengthens the community.

Seth Godin

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Thu, 23 Dec 2010 00:43:00 +0000

Neurologists studying brain disorders have discovered remarkable behaviors. In one case, a woman suffered from severe short-term memory loss. Anything more than five minutes old never happened. Every morning, she woke up with no recollection of anything less than a year or two ago. She knew her name and her distant past, but nothing recent.

Each day, she'd visit her doctor. He would shake her hand, reintroduce himself, and they would start over. One day, in a fairly unethical experiment, he put a thumbtack in his hand. When they shook hands, she was pinched. It hurt. He explained to her what he had done, and of course, an hour later she had forgotten all about it.

The next day, though, when the doctor extended his hand, she flinched. How did she know about the thumbtack? Her short-term memory was clearly gone. She wasn't faking. And yet, she remembered enough to avoid the pain. This was her another part of the brain at work. It has its own memory, its own survival system in place which jumping into action whenever basic survival needs are at stake. And when it is aroused, the other part of our brain stands little chance.

Linchpin: Are You Indispensable?, Seth Godin

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Tue, 21 Dec 2010 17:59:00 +0000

Just found a nice phrase:

Be the flotsam tossed by the waves of circumstance

Seth Godin

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Sat, 11 Dec 2010 21:10:00 +0000

Science of Imagination in Examples

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Sat, 11 Dec 2010 03:43:00 +0000

Немного крылатых фраз на латыни:

«Aurea mediocritas» — Золотая середина
«Cibi condimentum est fames» — Голод — наилучшая приправа к еде
«Cupido atque ira consultores pessimi» — Страсть и гнев — наихудшие советчики
«Divide et impera» — Разделяй и властвуй
«Dulce laudari a laudato viro» — Приятно получить похвалу от человека, достойного похвалы
«Dum per aetatem licem» — Пока позволяет юность
«Epistula non erubescit» — Бумага все терпит
«Est rerum omnium magister usus» — Опыт — всему учитель
«Ex nihilo nihil fit» — Ничто не происходит из ничего
«Ex parvis saepe magnarum rerum momenta pendent» — Исход крупных дел часто зависит от мелочей
«Festina lente» — Спеши медленно
«Fronti nula fides» — Наружность обманчива
«Homo, qui tacere nescit, legere nescit» — Человек, который не умеет молчать, не умеет говорить
«Homo ornat locum, non locus hominem» — Не место красит человека, а человек — место
«Imperare sibi maximum imperium est» — Повелевать собою — величайшая власть
«Incertus animus dimidium sapientiae est» — Сомнение — половина мудрости
«Is fecit, qui prodest» — Сделал тот, кому выгодно
«Libenter id quod cupumus credimus» — Мы легко верим в то что хотим
«Littera scripta manet, verbum imbelle perit» — Написанная буква остается, сказанное слово исчезает
«Malum consilium est, quod mutari non potest» — Плохо то решение, которое нельзя изменить
«Margaritas ante porcas» — Mетать Бисер перед свиньями
«Multum, non multa» — Многое, но не много; глубокое содержание в кратком изложении
«Neminem cito laudaveris, neminem cito accusaveris» — Никого быстро не ругай, никого быстро не хвали
«Nemo judex in causa sua» — Никто не судья в своем деле
«Nil permanent sub sole» — Ничто не вечно под солнцем
«Nil spernat auris, nec tamen credat statim» — Выслушивать нужно все но не спешить с доверием
«Non multa, sed multum» — Не много, но многое
«Non omnis error stultitia est» — Не всякая ошибка — глупость
«Non progredi est regredi» — Не идти вперед — значит идти назад
«O sancta simplicitas!» — О Святая простота!
«Omne nimium nocet» — Всe излишнее вредит
«Opera et studio» — Трудом и старанием
«Ordo anima rerum est» — Порядок — душа всякого дела
«Parvo contentus» — Довольствуясь малым
«Per aspera ad astra» — Через тернии к звездам
«Petitio principii» — Вывод из положения, которое еще нужно доказать
«Porta itineri longissima» — Труден лишь первый шаг
«Post hoc, non est propter hoc» — После этого — не значит из—за этого
«Potius sero quam nunquam» — Лучше поздно, чем никогда
«Prima jussa sibi» — Будь первым исполнителем своих приказаний
«Prius quam incipias, consulto opus est» — Прежде чем начать, обдумай
«Qui tacet — consentire videtur» — Молчание знак согласия
«Quot homines, tot sententiae» — Сколько людей, столько имнений
«Radices litterarum amarae sunt, fructus dulces» — Корни наук горьки, плоды сладки
«Rapit hora diem» — Час увлекает за собой день
«Sine ira et studio» — Без гнева и пристрастия; объективно
«Tertium non datur» — Третьего не дано
«Verbum movet, exemplum trahit» — Слово волнует, пример увлекает
«Vile est, quod licet» — То, что легкодоступно, мало ценится
«Vita brevis, art longa» — Жизнь коротка, искусство вечно

Перевод некоторых словосочетаний:

«A posteriori» — Исходя из опыта, на основании опыта
«A priori» — Заранее, до опыта, без проверки, независимо от опыта
«Ad hoc» — К этому, для данного случая, для этой цели
«Bis» — Дважды
«Ceteris paribus» — При прочих равных условиях
«De jure» — Юридически, по праву
«Gratis» — Бесплатно, даром, безвозмездно
«Jure divino» — По божескому закону
«Lapsus» — Ошибка, промах
«Magister dixit» — Это сказал учитель
«Post factum» — После события
«Pro domo mea» — В личных интересах
«Pro forma» — Для формы, для приличия, для вида
«Pro ut de lege» — Законным путем
«Quod erat demonstrandum» — Что и требовалось доказать

Quidquid latine dictum sit, altum sonatur. - Все что сказано на латыни звучит убедительно.

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Mon, 25 Oct 2010 22:40:00 +0000

I don't want not to work for pay, but to be paid for my work.

Leonard Cohen

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Mon, 18 Oct 2010 02:45:00 +0000

You are about to buy a new car. It is going to change your life, elevate your status, and make your commute a vacation. It is so quiet that you can hardly tell if the engine is on, so you can listen to Rachmaninoff's nocturnes on the highway. This new car will bring you to a permanently elevated plateau of contentment. People will think, Hey, he has a great car, every time they see you. Yet you forget that the last time you bought a car, you also had the same expectations. You do not anticipate that the effect of the new car will eventually wane and that you will revert to the initial condition, as you did last time. A few weeks after you drive your new car out of the showroom, it will become dull. If you had expected this, you probably would not have bought it. You are about to commit a prediction error that you have already made. Yet it would cost so little to introspect!

Psychologists have studied this kind of misprediction with respect to both pleasant and unpleasant events. We overestimate the effects of both kinds of future events on our lives. We seem to be in a psychological predicament that makes us do so. This predicament is called "anticipated utility" by Danny Kahneman and "affective forecasting" by Dan Gilbert. The point is not so much that we tend to mispredict our future happiness, but rather that we do not learn recursively from past experiences. We have evidence of a mental block and distortions in the way we fail to learn from our past errors in projecting the future of our affective states. We grossly overestimate the length of the effect of misfortune on our lives. You think that the loss of your fortune or current position will be devastating, but you are probably wrong. More likely, you will adapt to anything, as you probably did after past misfortunes. You may feel a sting, but it will not be as bad as you expect.

The Black Swan, Taleb

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Thu, 07 Oct 2010 03:11:00 +0000

You could notice that often IT job ads contain phrases like
"X years of experience is required." Actually, requiring experience is a useful idea, but after two-three years of experience situation does not differ so crucially - the difference between a candidate with two years of experience and with six years is not so much as can be supposed. The real difference comes from the personal intellect, pro-activity etc. Our memory is not ideal and recall things that we dealt with three-four years ago is not so easy.

37signals

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Thu, 07 Oct 2010 03:10:00 +0000

When you prepare presentations try to explain thoughts using human feelings - it removes layers of abstraction. Verbal explanation creates illusions of agreement: a thousand people can read the same words, but imagining a thousand different things.

37signals

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Wed, 29 Sep 2010 23:22:00 +0000

Optical illusion

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Sat, 18 Sep 2010 19:48:00 +0000

I created an experimental service that generates an RSS feed with posts that have some minimum number of likes in Google Reader. It was written for myself, so design is not very sexy.

http://like-filter.appspot.com

noreply@blogger.com (Anonymous) — Fri, 17 Sep 2010 16:21:00 +0000

How Google choose interviewers:

The recruit feedback system keeps track of how many interviews we (Google employees) do, what ratings we gave, if the person was hired, and how our interview feedback was rated by the hiring committee. Over time it becomes clear who the best interviewers are.

via