The Redskins thought he was a value in the fourth round so they took him. Cousins may be a backup. Or Robert Griffin III could be a flop. Then Washington has a backup plan in place.

Look no further than 1994, the year Washington drafted both Heath Shuler and Gus Frerotte to see that it’s not unheard of for the unheralded guy to end up better than the big shot. Or, as a commenter in a National Football League Post column pointed out, the 1971 draft when the Houston Oilers selected both Dan Pastorini and Lynn Dickey. Both had long careers, but Dickey arguably outperformed Pastorini over the long haul after he got his shot with Green Bay.

They did what I would always be looking to do if I was the general manager of an NFL team: They found a mid-to-late round value at quarterback whom they can develop. If he turns out to be the next Tom Brady, great. The Redskins found a diamond in the rough. If he turns out to be the next Matt Hasselbeck or Mark Brunell or Kevin Kolb, the Redskins drafted themselves a trade chip at the one position you know some team is always going to need.

Unlike Griffin and Andrew Luck, Cousins was not going to be guaranteed a starting job by any team that selected him anyway. His situation is little different now than it would be had he been selected by a team with a veteran starter in place. So his situation has only changed in that the guy he is competing with and “learning” from is the second pick in the draft.

Cousins got drafted in the fourth round by an NFL team. He’s pretty much a lock to make the team, cementing himself a nice paycheck. To his credit, Cousins seems like a smart kid worth rooting for. He is saying the right things, even if he might be confused or frustrated. According to the Detroit News, he emphasized during an interview on the Dan Patrick Show that he is competing with – not against – Griffin for the job. He knows his responsibility is helping Washington win and he also seems to realize that if he deserves it, he’ll get his shot, either with the Redskins or elsewhere.

“I know my opportunity will come sooner or later and the way the NFL works, your window of opportunity is very small, but when you get that opportunity you have to make the most of it,” he told the Dan Patrick Show, according to the Detroit News. “I just gotta be ready be ready when it does.”

In the meantime, Cousins has an opportunity to prepare, watch, learn and impress other teams so if Griffin is as good as expected, he can take advantage of the opportunity when he is either traded or gets an opportunity to sign elsewhere as a free agent.

Nobody needs to feel sorry for Cousins. Sure, it may be an awkward situation. But if he takes advantage of the opportunity, he’ll be just fine.

New England, in my eyes, retained its standing as the favorites for a repeat shot at the Super Bowl with their maneuverings. Normally more of a threat to trade down, New England got aggressive and jumped up in trying to fill the defensive deficiencies that dogged the team last season.
In landing defensive end Chandler Jones and linebacker Dont’a Hightower, the Patriots are much better on defense than they were when the day started.

Pittsburgh didn’t have to do any wheeling-and-dealing to win the night. As other teams traded up and down before the Steelers’ pick came up, Stanford guard David DeCastro inexplicably dropped into their laps.

Mike Tomlin’s crew needed to solidify the offensive line and they managed to do so with the draft’s best guard at pick 24.

Though they’re a ways away from challenging Pittsburgh and New England, I also like what the Browns did. Our team blogger mock had them going running back-wide receiver in the first. I had a feeling if that happened they were a strong bet to try and get quarterback Brandon Weeden in the second. They instead went Richardson-Weeden and there are definitely enough wide receivers on the board for them to go that way in the second.

My brother is a huge fan of what our hometown Vikings did as well. I loved the trade with Cleveland. Moving back one pick, adding three late-rounders and still getting Matt Kalil was a great, no-brainer move.

I like the Vikings’ aggressiveness in trading into the back end of round one, as well, though there are guys I would have rather seen them take with the second pick like Cordy Glenn, one of the wide receivers or even Courtney Upshaw or Janoris Jenkins.

Harrison Smith might have been the best safety available, but I don’t think his upside is high enough to warrant a trade up for a team that still has lots of holes. Nonetheless, Minnesota’s additions on Thursday night are a step in the right direction for a team desperately in need of an injection of youth in several spots.

Dallas and Arizona are two more teams who grabbed potential studs to fill problem spots. The Cowboys, in particular, have improved what had been a terrible secondary in 2011. Morris Claiborne will be a great addition in the Big-D.

There were some questionable moves Thursday night as well.  I initially thought the Seattle Seahawks reached tremendously in selecting West Virginia defensive end Bruce Irvin. Even the Seahawk blogger community seems to have at least mixed feelings about the pick.

On the upside, the team was able to trade down and grab a couple mid-round picks. On the downside, Irvin had received hardly a mention as a possible first-round pick. But after doing a little reading, it’s clear Irvin has top-notch potential as a pass rusher.

I’ve read reports indicating that there were at least a handful of other teams looking at him in the first half of day one. He’s got a tough background and many character questions to answer. But if he keeps his head on straight, Seattle may get the last laugh on this pick.

Other teams that reached in the first include Miami, who grabbed the talented-but-raw Ryan Tannehill at number eight, and San Francisco, who thought more highly of Illinois wide receiver A.J. Jenkins than many more highly-touted prospects left on the board. No doubt the team needs a quarterback. It has for a long time. But while Bruce Ireland says experience is the only thing separating Tannehill from Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III, that seems like a bit of a stretch to me.

We’re also not crazy about the picks of Kansas City (Dontari Poe, defensive tackle) and the New York Jets (Quinton Coples, defensive end). Poe and Coples both have the potential to prove us wrong, but both also measured better during the draft combine and workouts than they played on Saturdays while in college.

But what are some possible solutions to the problem? Here’s one that apparently shouldn’t be on the list – let the players vote.

For Eagles, Redskins and Vikings quarterback Donovan McNabb, during an appearance on a FoxSports.com show, said he would vote for himself for the Hall of Fame:

Mark Kriegel: “Would you vote for you for the Hall of Fame?”

McNabb: “Absolutely. One thing people don’t realize, I never played the game to make it to the Hall of Fame. I played the game because I love it. I played the game to win because I’m a competitor. When I step out on the field, I feel like I’m the best player on the field. Even these last two years, and people may look at it and say, ‘Oh, he’s done.’ I’m 34, 35 years old but I still played at the pinnacle, at the highest level of my career. I played there. I would vote myself for the Hall of Fame and I played with probably two or three Hall of Famers. When you sit and look at the numbers and that’s what it is when it comes to the Hall of Fame. My numbers are better than Jim Kelly, than Troy Aikman and a lot of guys in the Hall of Fame, but the one thing they have is a Super Bowl.”

I was shocked to find out that he’s actually pretty close on the Kelly/Aikman comparison – he had three fewer wins (98) than Kelly (101), and four more than Aikman (94). He was only three touchdowns behind Kelly, but significantly ahead of Aikman (237-234-165), but was also significantly lower than either on the interception side (117 for McNabb, 141 for Aikman, 175 for Kelly). He even threw for more yards than either of them (37,276 for McNabb, 35,467 for Kelly, 32,942 for Aikman) and had a better quarterback rating (85.6) than either (84.4 for Kelly, 81.6 for Aikman).

One area he did fall short, though, was completion percentage – 59 percent for McNabb, vs. 60.1 percent for Kelly and 61.5 percent for Aikman – and there seems to be an almost mythical line for more modern QBs at the 60 percent mark. Throw in the four consecutive Super Bowl appearances for Kelly, and the Super Bowl wins for Aikman, along with the perception (that I have at least) that McNabb racked up a lot of his yardage via dump passes to running backs and tight ends that turned them into bigger plays, and that’s a pretty big gap starting to form, in my mind.

A couple of other interesting quotes from McNabb:

“Well, Peyton never won the big game until he won the Super Bowl. Dan Marino never won the big game.”

First, that’s just brilliant on Manning [more on that in a second]. But on Marino, he also set virtually every important single season and career passing record there was to have – which is going to count for something.

[On what makes a Hall of Fame quarterback] “How many times has he led his team to the big game? The big game still is the NFC Championship Game, the game to lead you there, and most importantly of all, did he make the players around him better? In his time, in his era, was he a top 5, top 10 quarterback in the league?”

No, the big game is not the NFC Championship Game. It’s a bigger than normal game, and it’s impressive to get to as many as McNabb did. But to reach the NFC Championship Game that many times and only make the Super Bowl once is indicative that maybe you just weren’t good enough to get them over the hump. After all, you were one of the main constants on all of those teams.

Speaking of the real big game, let’s not forget how he played in his the one Super Bowl appearance he did take his Eagles to. He did throw for 357 yards and 3 touchdowns, but completed less than 60 percent of his passes (30 for 51), and also threw three interceptions. And one of the lasting images of the game is McNabb hunched over, apparently getting sick in the huddle toward the end of the game.

Did McNabb make the players around him better? Tough argument to make. Assuming wide receiver is the position most easily made better by a good quarterback, only three receivers in McNabb’s career had a single 1,000 yard season with him throwing passes – Terrell Owens in 2004 (who was pretty well established when he came to Philly), Kevin Curtis in 2007 (McNabb missed two games) and DeSean Jackson in 2009 (McNabb missed two games).

This argument could work for or against him. He did not take a lot of receivers from good to great, as someone like Aikman did with guys like Alvin Harper. Harper was a big contributor to Dallas’ Super Bowl era. But once Harper left the Cowboys, Dallas kept winning and Harper fell into relative obscurity. On the other hand, McNabb could argue with some legitimacy that he was not surrounded by much talent at the wide receiver position until the team surrounded him with Jackson and then Jeremy Maclin during his final year with the Eagles. Even Curtis cannot be considered a top-level player – he had a couple good years, but was not a superstar by any stretch.

Finally, regarding McNabb’s “was he a top five, top 10 quarterback in the league” statement, it isn’t quite that simple. First, a top 10 quarterback, even for one season, represents basically being in the top-third of quarterbacks in the league – hardly a compelling argument for being a Hall of Fame-level quarterback or to even say that player had a special season. Even looking at a player’s entire career, being in the top 10 quarterbacks for an era doesn’t get you into the Hall most of the time, so you almost have to be top five for your era.

Kriegel followed McNabb’s answer above up with the statement: “You were top five.” To which McNabb responded, “Definitely.”

Looking again at his statistics, he just wasn’t.  If you look at his seasons on leader boards for passing statistics, he had two seasons in the top five in completions (and was at the same or higher in rank for attempts in those seasons), zero for passing yards, one for passing touchdowns and two for passer rating.

If you look at “Similar Players” on Pro-Football-Reference.com, for his career you get Mark Brunell, Steve McNair, Terry Bradshaw (HOF but different era), Kelly & Aikman, Boomer Esiason, Roger Staubach (HOF but different era), Drew Bledsoe, Ken Stabler and Bob Griese (HOF but different era).

His era is a bit difficult to define exactly. But it’s clear that guys like Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees and even Brett Favre – whose career was well underway when McNabb arrived on the scene and who was still around as McNabb’s time in Philly was winding down – are competitors from the early part of his career who have McNabb beat hands down. Add in Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers and even Aaron Rodgers from the latter part of McNabb’s career and his accomplishments, however impressive, start to slide quickly down that top 10 list on which he so strongly feels he belongs.

So it’s fairly clear to see where we stand on the Is-McNabb-Hall-Worthy question: his numbers were better than we expected when looking back at his cumulative stats. But they still don’t add up to him being one of the top few elite players at his position for his era. People always talk about guys whose careers fall just short of the Hall of Fame being candidates for the fictional Hall of Very Good. If there were a Hall of Very Good and it was putting on an advertising campaign, McNabb would be its spokesman.

I think the Steelers had even semi-resigned themselves to losing the wideout, who reportedly wants a new contract that pays him as a top five receiver.

Now, those contract demands likely hurt his cause. Wallace is a very good receiver with some dynamic numbers – 18.7 yards per catch and 24 touchdowns in his first three seasons. But he also disappears for stretches too. He’s on his way toward the top, but does not yet belong in the same category as a Larry Fitzgerald, a Calvin Johnson or an Andre Johnson, among others.

But he’s a top-notch downfield receiver and with several teams later in the draft looking for help at the position — and a couple them holding two first-round picks — I thought there was a good chance Wallace would be one of the rare restricted free agents who got snatched, perhaps even by a team in the same division as the Steelers.

What better way for an up-and-coming team like Cincinnati to bridge the gap between the two teams than snag their number one wide receiver? And what a trio of skill players that signing would have made. Andy Dalton would have had a nice problem on his hands in deciding whether to distribute to Wallace, second-year gem A.J. Green or tight end Jermaine Gresham.

Super Bowl runner-up New England, which got great production from tight ends but not so much from receivers not named Wes Welker was another of my speculated targets. So was San Francisco, where Alex Smith had, by far, his best season in 2011, despite throwing the ball to Vernon Davis, disappointing Michael Crabtree and a collection of journeymen.

But instead of kicking the tires on Wallace, San Francisco went with Randy Moss and Mario Manningham. New England instead went with Brandon Lloyd and a couple of retreads, Donte Stallworth and Anthony Gonzalez.

Richard Hill, an assistant editor with Pats Pulpit, notes that the cost might not be worth the payoff for Wallace. “He would come at a double-price of both a draft pick and a hefty contract extension, two things the Patriots most likely won’t be willing to spend on a receiver they don’t know can fit into their offense,” he said in an interview with Zoneblitz, adding that the team also brought back Chad Johnson and Julian Edelman and could still add someone in the draft.

I’m personally not a big believer in Lloyd, but he is being reunited with Josh McDaniels in New England. And as a complement to Welker and tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, Lloyd probably does fit quite well. I would still take Wallace over Lloyd, Stallworth and Gonzalez, but the Patriots are not going to be hurting for offense.

The Bengals were the team I really hoped would make a run at Wallace. The Steelers are a division rival. Cincinnati has an up-and-coming team with a quarterback who seemed to really get it during his rookie season. And, as mentioned, teaming Wallace and A.J. Green could create an amazingly dynamic offense.

But Josh Kirkendall, managing editor of CincyJungle, was even more adamant than Hill that the Steeler was unlikely to be added.

“No chance on Wallace,” he said, adding that the Bengals appear ready to give former Cincinnati Bearcat wideout Armon Binns a shot as the number two receiver opposite Green this season. “The core for our reasoning is that we don’t see the Bengals giving up a first-round pick to their division rivals while giving Wallace the long-term money he wants with someone like A.J. Green, who will command a significant salary when he’s due for an extension, already on the roster.”

It’s a fair point. Given the emergence of Antonio Brown last year I’m almost thinking the Steelers would have been fine watching Wallace walk in exchange for a first and I can see why the Bengals might have been hesitant to give that up to a rival.

But the pick is in the latter third of the round and we all know how often first-round picks end up being busts. If the Bengals’ brass still sees this team as a couple years away from being a real contender for a championship, maybe passing up Wallace right now is the right move.

But I see Cincinnati, with a few good moves, having a shot to make a move this year. Pittsburgh has salary cap issues and will likely take a small step backward in 2012. And Baltimore is captained on offense by a quarterback in Joe Flacco who himself took a step back in 2011 and on defense by a collection of great, great players who are fast approaching the ends of their careers.

It’s a win now league and I’d have strongly considered taking the risk of adding Wallace, giving Pittsburgh the draft pick and hoping it paid off in a deep playoff run for the Bengals. Instead, Cincinnati has stuck with what has been a fairly passive approach to free agency in the Mike Brown-era. And in so doing I think the team may have missed an opportunity.

Whether the Steelers hoped their gamble with Wallace would pay off or not, it appears the league saw it more the way Hill and Kirkendall do than the way I did. And at least in the short-term, Pittsburgh will probably be better off for it.

Here are Boser’s thoughts on how free agency has affected the 2012 fantasy scene so far.

Zoneblitz: What are your thoughts on Peyton Manning going to Denver and what does it mean for the fantasy prospects of his teammates, who likely will no longer be required to catch passes with their feet?

Boser: Come Week one, the aging Manning will be 20 months removed from his last NFL snap. We’re in uncharted territory with the nature of this injury, so I’m treading lightly, but if he passes the eye test in the preseason, you can expect fantasy drafters to make Demaryius Thomas this year’s Jimmy Graham (i.e. everybody’s favorite “sleeper” who’s not really a sleeper). Thomas overtook Eric Decker late last season — in his last seven games, he scored four touchdowns and averaged 9.3 targets, 5.0 catches and 106.4 yards per contest.

With Tim Tebow.

You may have to pay low-end WR1 money for Thomas in your auctions. While he could certainly justify the compensation, Eric Decker is shaping up as the better draft-day value. Third receiver Andre Caldwell may be the true sleeper in the passing game. The Broncos have a logjam at tight end (Jacob Tamme, Joel Dreessen, Virgil Green and Julius Thomas), and are likely to employ a RBBC in the backfield, so it’s all about Manning and the wideouts.

Zoneblitz: Tampa signed Vincent Jackson and Carl Nicks. What do you think of Jackson in 2012 and how does his signing affect other Bucs?

Boser: First, there’s a steep drop-off from Philip Rivers to Josh Freeman. Second, there’s no Antonio Gates to distract defenses in Tampa Bay. Third, new head coach Greg Schiano likes to run, and the Bucs (with pick number five) look like a probable landing spot for Trent Richardson in the draft. For all these reasons, I’m down on Jackson—he’s a low-level fantasy WR2 for me. Kellen Winslow and Mike Williams can expect more room but fewer looks, resulting in a value push. Arrelious Benn probably falls off the radar.

The additions of Jackson and Nicks will make the Bucs more competitive, which is a blessing for LeGarrette Blount (if the Bucs pass on Richardson), as he watched from the sidelines anytime the team fell behind last season. Freeman’s the only clear-cut upgrade here, but I still don’t like him as anything more than a high-end QB2.

Zoneblitz: What are the fantasy ramifications of Peyton Hillis joining Kansas City?

Boser: Devastating. Any hope for Jamaal Charles’ making a triumphant return from his ACL was squashed with the addition of the 250-lb. battering ram. Unlike Thomas Jones, Hillis is a legitimate “thunder” to Charles’ “lightening,” and while this tandem is great for the Chiefs, it’s a nightmare for fantasy owners. Hillis was no beacon of health himself last season, so this is shaping up as a volatile fantasy situation in which either back could explode, disappear or limp off on any given week. Over the last four seasons, 49% of Dwayne Bowe’s touchdowns have come from inside the 10 yard line, so the addition of another red zone threat certainly doesn’t help his prospects, either. Finally, Matt Cassel remains waiver wire fodder.

Zoneblitz: Mike Tolbert signed in Carolina adding a third cog to what already was a messy backfield situation for fantasy purposes. What are your thoughts on the draftability of the Panthers’ backfield?

Boser: Actually, Tolbert is a fourth cog. In addition to the 50-50 split between DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, Cam Newton scored an NFL record 14 rushing touchdowns from the quarterback position last year. For these reasons, expectations were already low for Williams and Stewart. Adding Tolbert at fullback further muddies the water. It’s Newton who stands to lose the most—a decline in rushing scores was already inevitable and it’s now obvious that the team will look to protect him from the abuse of short-yardage duties. Below are 2011 rushing touchdown totals from inside the 10-yard line, further illustrating Newton’s surefire scoring decrease.

Cam Newton: 9 (of 14)
Mike Tolbert: 7 (of 8)
Jonathan Stewart: 3 (of 4)
DeAngelo Williams: 2 (of 7)

Translation: A great deal of Newton’s fantasy value came from heavy usage near the stripe, where Tolbert excels. The hope is that he’ll progress enough as a passer to offset the rushing decline. Tolbert will notch a handful of short scores, but won’t get enough touches to be viable. Williams can score from distance so, on paper, his modest value will be less affected by Tolbert’s presence than Stewart’s. A Stewart trade would certainly clear things up for fantasy footballers.

Zoneblitz: Are there any fantasy-worthy players in Miami with Brandon Marshall gone and Matt Moore still playing quarterback?

Boser: Something finally clicked for Reggie Bush last season, and while I’m still a bit skeptical, he’s worthy of fantasy RB2 consideration. Word out of Miami is that the Dolphins plan to get more creative with him this season (i.e. better utilization his pass-catching abilities).

Zoneblitz: Likewise, how do you view the Bears now that they have added Brandon Marshall and Michael Bush to Matt Forte and Jay Cutler, who had really stepped up his game before getting hurt?

Boser: Jay Cutler’s best professional season came as a Denver Bronco in 2008, when he connected with Brandon Marshall 104 times. I’d be a lot more excited about this reunion if Brandon Marshall wasn’t a woman-beating menace to society. But he is. Cutler and Marshall were a legitimate fantasy QB1/WR1 tandem when they last played together, but the safe play is to target Cutler as a QB2 and Marshall as a WR2 in drafts. If you slough the quarterback position in your draft and are looking to pair a low-end QB1 with a high-end QB2, Cutler’s an ideal target.

Matt Forte has several red flags for me. It took a contract year for him to finally dominate consistently: red flag. He’s averaged just six touchdowns over the past three seasons: red flag. Michael Bush is a short-yardage stud and the league’s best backup: red flag. Forte should still be drafted as an RB1, but if he ends up holding out, I may cross him off my list altogether — running back holdouts never end well. Per usual, I’ll target Bush as an RB3/4 or mandatory handcuff, stash him in my back pocket and know that I’m sitting on a potential RB1.

Zoneblitz: What are the fantasy ramifications of the trade that is expected to net Washington Robert Griffin III and of the signings of Pierre Garcon and Josh Morgan?

Boser: Last season, Cam Newton took everything we thought we knew about rookie quarterbacks, crumpled it up and threw it out the window. The scary part is that RGIII is a much more polished passing prospect than Newton. His mobility is a great fit for Mike Shanahan’s West Coast Offense, and I view him as a fantasy QB2 who could quickly move into QB1 territory. Garcon is a complementary receiver and Washington will quickly realize that paying him a stupid amount of money won’t change that. Inconsistent hands and route running make for inconsistent fantasy production. He has the feel of a guy who will “pop” about once a month without any modicum of predictability.

Josh Morgan is just a guy. But Fred Davis gets an uptick and should settle in to mid-level TE1 territory.

Zoneblitz: Do the defections of Robert Meachem and Carl Nicks hurt the draft status of Drew Brees or any of the remaining Saints?

Boser: Nah. Ben Grubbs was signed to replace Nicks, and Meachem was an ancillary piece to that passing game. If I were worried about anything—and I’m not—it would be a potential holdout and the absence of Sean Payton. Brees is a savvy vet, so if anything, I’ll use these distractions as a tiebreaker between Brees and Aaron Rodgers.

Zoneblitz: What other players do you see still on the market who could dramatically influence fantasy rankings?

Boser: None, unless something were to happen with restricted free agent Mike Wallace. I see a bunch of broken down runners who are 29 going on 40, such as Cedric Benson, Ryan Grant and Joseph Addai.

Check out our baseball site at BrushBackPitch.com.

We spent a couple months breaking down team needs with our “In Depth” posts. Now we’re again enlisting the team blogger community for help in putting together a mock draft. Will it be any more accurate than one we pull out of the air by ourselves? Time will tell. But it’s something we’re going to try to do every year going forward. So without further adieu, welcome to the First Annual Team Blogger Mock Draft.

Round One

1. Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck – Quarterback – Stanford
Pick made by Andrew Aziz, founder and managing editor of Everything Colts (Twitter: andrewaziz)

Explanation: This pick is a no brainer. Andrew Luck is not only the best quarterback in college right now, he’s one of the best prospects in recent memory. He’s been considered the next Peyton Manning. Coincidentally this will be the second time a first year general manager will have the first overall pick and the top player is a quarterback. The last time it happened was in 1998 when the Colts took Manning. Luck possesses a strong arm and top-notch accuracy. He also has great mobility, he’s smart and he reads defenses. He is the reason why Stanford is so good. This is one of the safest picks you could make.

2. Washington Redskins: Robert Griffin III – Quarterback – Baylor
Pick made by Kevin Ewoldt, managing editor of Hogs Haven (Twitter: hogshaven)

Explanation: Washington finally has a franchise quarterback. Redskins fans have had to endure 20 different starting quarterbacks since the glory years, including such names as John Beck, Heath Shuler, and Tony Banks. No one wins without a quarterback. I’m tired of the “Trent Dilfer” logic. The game has evolved since then. The Redskins made a bold move to trade away two extra first-round picks and a second this year, but frankly it was a trade they had to make. Griffin’s high character background (military parents), work ethic (graduated college early and already working on Masters), and athletic accomplishments reduce the risk of him being a bust. With a defense that has a knack for forcing turnovers, a quarterback who can protect the ball and make smart decisions will certainly add wins. At the very least, fans have something to be excited about.

3. Minnesota Vikings: Matt Kalil – Tackle – Southern California
Pick made by Jon Merckle, senior blogger for The Viking Age (Twitter: Thevikingpig)

Explanation: The draft really begins with the Vikings as it was a foregone conclusion that Luck & RG3 would go one and two. Over the past couple of weeks general manager Rick Spielman has suggested the team wants to trade down, but if the Vikings go that route it better be for a hefty package of draft picks and finding that trading partner would be easier said than done. Kalil is a top-shelf left tackle who would allow incumbent left tackle Charlie Johnson to kick inside to his natural position of guard. Johnson looked out of place blocking the likes of Julius Peppers and Clay Matthews in the NFC North. A huge storyline for the Vikings’ 2012 season is the development of young quarterback Christian Ponder. No need for Spielman to get cute with this pick and run the risk of turning Ponder into another Joey Harrington or David Carr.

4. Cleveland Browns: Trent Richardson – Running Back – Alabama
Pick made by Steve DiMatteo, editor and lead writer for Dawg Pound Daily (Twitter: dawgpounddaily)

Richardson has been dubbed one of the few “sure things” in this year’s draft. Plus Cleveland has a gigantic need at running back. These factors make Richardson a no-brainer. Throw out the notion that selecting a running back so high is unwise – it’s the perfect match for the Browns as they rebuild an offense in the brutally tough AFC North.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Morris Claiborne – Cornerback – Louisiana State
Pick made by Steve Isbitts, co-founder of Joe Bucs Fan (Twitter: JoeBucsFan)

Explanation: If Richardson were available, there would be fights breaking out across the Tampa Bay area. About one-third of the fan base is desperate for the Alabama tailback. But the Browns just made life easy and united Bucs fans. Claiborne fills a huge need at cornerback with the uncertain futures of starters Aqib Talib and Ronde Barber. Plus the Bucs really need a returner, a role Claiborne can share.

6. St. Louis Rams: Michael Floyd – Wide receiver – Notre Dame
Pick made by Ryan Van Bibber, editor of Turf Show Times (Twitter: TurfShowTimes)

Explanation: With Richardson, Kalil and Claiborne all off the board, and no trade partners to be had, the Rams have a tough decision to make. Many expect Justin Blackmon to the Rams’ pick if the first round plays out this way. Floyd is a much better fit for the Rams’ needs at receiver. The team is already stocked with possession types. Floyd gives them a tall, sure-handed target that jumped up draft boards after answering some questions about his deep speed this spring.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Justin Blackmon – Wide receiver – Oklahoma State
Pick made by Luke Sims, editor and lead writer for Black and Teal (Twitter: blackandteal)

Explanation: With the signing of Dallas’ Laurent Robinson, the Jags brought in a much needed #2 receiver.  Having the ability to draft Blackmon to play at #1 allows the Jags to slide Mike Thomas back into the slot position where he has excelled in the past.  Blackmon allows the Jags to have a very consistent receiver for Blaine Gabbert to throw to and develop with, hopefully bringing the Jags up from the bottom of the league in passing and providing much needed balance to the offense.

8. Miami Dolphins: Ryan Tannehill – Quarterback – Texas A&M
Pick made by Michael Rosenbloom, social media coordinator and writer for PhinPhanatic (Twitter: phinphanatic)

Explanation: 13 years the Dolphins have been trying and failing to find their franchise quarterback. Jeff Ireland will try one more time with Tannehill, a duel-threat quarterback in high school who converted to wide receiver at Texas A&M and then back to quarterback. With the Phins switching to a West Coast offense under Mike Sherman, they need an athletic quarterback who makes quick decisions and throws accurately. That describes Tannehill. The Dolphins have the luxury of giving Tannehill time to learn, having both Matt Moore and David Garrard signed through next year. Tannehill has all the raw skills you look for in a franchise QB, excellent arm strength and accuracy, great decision making skills and a team-first attitude.

9. Carolina Panthers: Fletcher Cox – Defensive tackle – Mississippi State
Pick made by Slate Schwertner, editor of Cat Crave (Twitter: CatCraveBlog)

Explanation: Cox is easily the best defensive tackle in the draft. Dontari Poe and Quinton Coples have been speculated on in many mock drafts, but Poe never performed in college and Carolina doesn’t have a pressing need for a defensive end. Cox will easily improve the Panthers’ horrid run defense of last season when placed next to Ron Edwards. He’s a big tackle at 6-4 298, and he plays even bigger. I could see Carolina wanting to trade back but not getting any takers. Thus, they take Cox and solidify their defensive line.

10. Buffalo Bills: Luke Kuechly – Linebacker – Boston College
Pick made by Bradley Andrews, editor of BuffaLowDown (Twitter: BuffLowDown)

Explanation: Bills General Manager Buddy Nix is a tough man to predict on draft day. He is a firm believer in “best player available,” so if his draft board is a little different than most we could see a shocker here. With the top two wide receivers off the board, the Bills could pick an offensive tackle or defensive end. But I’ll say they nab Kuechly, the tackling machine out of Boston College. Kuechly has some limitations, but he’s a big-time run stopper, which the Bills still really need. He could play in the middle or maybe even the outside of Buffalo’s new 4-3 defense.

11. Kansas City Chiefs: David DeCastro – Guard – Stanford
Pick made by Patrick Allen, senior editor of Arrowhead Addict (Twitter: ArrowheadAddict)

Explanation: Considering the way the board has played out, taking DeCastro here is the safest option for the Chiefs. Ryan Lilja has hit his 30s and he struggled last year. DeCastro is an immediate upgrade to what could eventually be the best offensive line in the NFL. The 11 spot traditionally is high to select a guard but DeCastro has the potential to be a perennial Pro Bowler. This guy is just too good to pass up.

12. Seattle Seahawks: Melvin Ingram – Linebacker – South Carolina
Pick made by Keith Myers, editor and lead writer for 12th Man Rising (Twitter: 12thman_rising)

Explanation: The Seahawks need help both at linebacker and in generating a pass rush. Ingram helps with both needs. Ingram is a versatile player who will be able to play weakside linebacker in the base defense, then move up to defensive end in the nickel or obvious passing situations.

13. Arizona Cardinals: Riley Reiff, – Tackle – Iowa
Pick made by: Scott Allen, lead writer for Raising Zona (Twitter: RaisingZona)

Explanation: At 6-6 and 313, the tackle from Iowa has great footwork and is flexible enough to be move around on the line if needed. As a left tackle, he has also played defensive end and tight end. The one issue scouts are not thrilled with are his short arms. I think it’s an issue easily enough overcome. He also rarely gets beat on pass protection and is a great blocker in the open field.

14. Dallas Cowboys: Quinton Coples – Defensive End – North Carolina
Pick made by Steven Mullenax, editor in chief of The Landry Hat (Twitter: landryhat)

Explanation: The Dallas Cowboys’ draft strategy under head coach Jason Garrett has been to draft talent over need. Nothing proved this point more than when those chose running back DeMarco Murray in the third round last year. Despite the Cowboys’ obvious holes in their defensive secondary and offensive line, ultimately their biggest need is pass rush. So, if Quinton Coples is still on the board here the Cowboys will be elated. Arguably a top-five talent, Coples would fit in perfectly beside Pro Bowlers in defensive tackle Jay Ratliff and outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware. And he would provide an instant upgrade to Rob Ryan’s pass rush. Although safety Mark Barron could be the safe choice here, Dallas’ recent signing of Brodney Pool will allow them more time to develop a young safety or find a more permanent solution in the free agency market next year.

15. Philadelphia Eagles: Michael Brockers – Defensive tackle – LSU
Pick made by: Bob Wankel, editor of Inside the Iggles (Twitter: insideiggles)

Explanation: Philadelphia’s defensive line was one of the team’s few bright spots last season, but coach Andy Reid is always looking for ways to improve the interior of his defense. Brockers does that. He is an ultra-athletic and massive force that has yet to realize his full potential. The Eagles have done their homework on Texas A&M quarterback Ryan Tannehill, but won’t mortgage their other picks to move up for a first-round quarterback. Under this scenario, the team could consider cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick or safety Mark Barron, but with the depth of quality defensive tackles available early in the draft, it would be somewhat shocking to see the Eagles pass on Brockers.

16. New York Jets: Mark Barron – Safety – Alabama
Pick made by Joe Caporoso, owner, editor-in-chief and head writer with Turn on the Jets (Twitter: TurnOnTheJets)

Explanation: The Jets badly need help at the safety position. In 2011, starters Jim Leonhard and Eric Smith were outmatched in coverage and repeatedly taken advantage of by opposing teams’ tight ends. LaRon Landry was signed but he will play primarily in the box at strong safety, Barron will give them an athletic safety with the range to help in pass coverage and also be solid in run support. Barron has a higher ceiling in Rex Ryan’s defense than end/linebacker Courtney Upshaw, who also remains on the board.

17. Cincinnati Bengals: Dre Kirkpatrick – Cornerback – Alabama
Pick made by Jason Garrison, editor of Cincy Jungle (Twitter: CincyJungle)

Explanation: The Bengals need a cornerback to ensure the future of their secondary. They have signed Jason Allen and Terence Newman to help out, but after the 2012 season, only Leon Hall and Allen will be on the roster, as both Newman and Nate Clements, aging corners, will be free agents. At that point, Allen would be the team’s third cornerback and Kirkpatrick could start opposite of Hall. This year, Kirkpatrick could have a large role as well as Hall is recovering from a season-ending Achilles injury and may not be back to 100 percent when the team takes the field on Monday Night Football in Baltimore. Kirkpatrick was the choice over Stephon Gilmore because he’s better in run support, which will be important in the AFC North, and because he only allowed one touchdown in his college career.

18. San Diego Chargers: Dont’a Hightower – Linebacker – Alabama
Pick made by Ernie Padaon, editor of Bolt Beat (Twitter: BB_Chargers)

Explanation: The pick comes down to either Hightower, Courtney Upshaw, Whitney Mercilus or Nick Perry. Since AJ Smith is making the pick, he is not afraid to put his neck out on the line and draft a player like Hightower over Upshaw. The Chargers need help putting pressure on the quarterback and they can use the versatility that Hightower brings. Hightower can be used on the edges to get after the quarterback and he can be used in the middle to take over for Takeo Spikes in a year. He is a leader and a player the Chargers need.

19. Chicago Bears: Whitney Mercilus – Defensive end – Illinois
Pick made by Jake Perper, founder and head writer for Bears Backer (Twitter: Bearsbacker)

Explanation: The Bears need to give Julius Peppers some help on the opposite side and defensive end Whitney Mercilus from Illinois can do just that . With Henry Melton on the inside line alongside veteran Matt Toeania and intriguing second-year player Stephen Paea, the Bears have solid pass rush ability from the inside. Peppers racked up 11 sacks last season. Israel Idonije provided some pressure with 5.0 sacks, but the Bears need to add another defensive end to the mix. They need to find that speed rusher who can really complement Peppers’ abilities. Mercilus can be that second end that the Bears need to take their defense to the next level. Corey Wooton and Chauncey Davis are solid depth at defensive end, but Mercilus could be the game changer Chicago was lacking last season opposite Peppers.

20. Tennessee Titans: Nick Perry – Defensive end/Linebacker – Southern California
Pick made by Justin Stewart, editor of Titan Sized (Twitter: titan_sized)

Explanation: With players like Ingram, Cox, Coples, Kirkpatrick, Mercilus and Barron off the board, the Titans really only have one way to go: defensive end Nick Perry. They need a star end on the line and Derrick Morgan’s status is up in the air. Kamerion Wimbley certainly has potential, but this is the first time in his career that he’ll be playing defensive end full-time. With Perry being the best remaining option at the position, the Titans will take him. Perry has shown great athleticism and the ability to put on lots of muscle weight fast without affecting his speed or anything else. He has a high ceiling and fits Jerry Gray’s scheme well. The Titans would have been interested in Mercilus had he been there, but he also has too many question marks. The Titans will be happy with Perry. He gives the team serious potential as he gets thrown into rotation during his first year. With Morgan, Wimbley, Dave Ball and now Perry, the defensive end position is pretty well solidified.

21. Cincinnati Bengals: Cordy Glenn – Offensive lineman – Georgia
Pick made by Jason Garrison, editor of Cincy Jungle (Twitter: CincyJungle)

Explanation: The Bengals addressed a major need at cornerback with the 17th pick and now they can address another one at 21. The Bengals allowed (willingly) Nate Livings and Mike McGlynn to leave in free agency. They also have not re-signed Bobbie Williams and showing many signs that they will, likely due to his age. They have signed Travelle Wharton, who will be the team’s new left guard. But that leaves a hole at right guard. By adding Glenn, the Bengals get a 345-pound mauler who knows how to move people. He lacks the talent and upside of David DeCastro, but he has the potential to be a solid starter at the NFL level. With Andrew Whitworth, Wharton, Kyle Cook, Glenn and Andre Smith as starters, the Bengals would likely have their best offensive line since 2005. Adding Glenn would go a long way toward opening holes for BenJarvus Green-Ellis and providing Andy Dalton with a clean pocket.

22. Cleveland Browns: Kendall Wright – Wide receiver – Baylor
Pick made by Steve DiMatteo, editor and lead writer for Dawg Pound Daily (Twitter: dawgpounddaily)

Explanation: By addressing their need at running back with the fourth pick, the Browns are able to turn to another position of need here at wide receiver. Kendall Wright seemingly slipped down the draft board after a disappointing showing at the NFL combine, but his pro day left plenty to be excited about. He is more than ready for the NFL and, while his size is lacking, he is the right pick for the Browns.

23. Detroit Lions: Peter Konz – Center – Wisconsin
Pick made by Zac Snyder, editor of the SideLion Report (Twitter: SideLion Report)

Explanation: A run on other players the Lions would likely consider turns their focus to the best center in the draft. Dominic Raiola still has some football left in him but there is no candidate to replace him already on the roster. Konz can compete for playing time at guard before the Lions are ready to install him as starting center.The Lions have more pressing needs, particularly at cornerback, but those can be addressed in the second and third rounds. This draft has good depth at cornerback and the selection of Konz is a better value than the remaining choices at offensive tackle.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers: Dontari Poe – Defensive tackle – Memphis
Pick made by Neal Coolong, assistant editor for Behind The Steel Curtain (Twitter: btsteelcurtain)

Explanation: Are you ready for the biggest hypocrite of the mock draft? The selection of Dontari Poe will draw mixed cheers and boos from Madison Square Garden. I’m a hypocrite because I just wrote 700 words comparing Poe to former potential stud Greg Oden of the NBA. Domination in the lower levels is at the very least sort of a prerequisite for Steelers first round draft picks. It’s a bit tougher to categorize an overall level of dominance for a nose tackle, but Poe’s freakish athletic ability and the Steelers’ track record for developing defensive linemen in their 3-4 scheme with something of a redshirt process their first year or two will bode very well for the raw Poe. Pittsburgh wouldn’t expect him to step in on Day one and get dozens of snaps every game, but in time, with some hard work and luck, they could find a more athletic version of Casey Hampton to lock down the zero-technique for another 11 years, like Big Snack did.

25. Denver Broncos: Janoris Jenkins – Cornerback – North Alabama
Pick made by Ian Henson, contributor MaxDenver & BroncoTalk (Twitter: TheOrangePage & BroncoTalk)

Explanation: Jenkins is a reach by any definition, but he won’t be available by the time the Broncos pick in the second round. The one thing Denver won’t do is pick for need. They’ll go “best player available” at every opportunity, regardless of position. Jenkins’ clouded past is what prevents him from going higher in the draft, but in a locker room full of men like Peyton Manning, Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins he will be just fine. The emphasis on Jenkins’ past is likely disinformation so an interested team can pick him up later than he deserves to be chosen.

26. Houston Texans: Coby Fleener – Tight end – Stanford
Pick made by Barrett Walton, managing editor of the Texans Bull Blog (Twitter: TexansBullBlog)

Explanation: The national media is convinced that the Houston Texans will take a wide receiver in the first round. With virtually no weaknesses going into the offseason, that made sense. The problem is that Houston has a beast there in wide receiver Andre Johnson and when he missed half the season, all the Texans did was average 27 points a game. Wide receiver is not a first-round priority for the Texans. If Kendall Wright had been available you could make the wide receiver argument because he does everything well. He’s a great route runner with good hands. The other name that the pundits are suggesting is Georgia Tech’s Stephen Hill. Hill is a solid blocker with elite size, something Houston absolutely covets. But they put a bigger value in well rounded guys. Hill has too many unknowns coming out of a run-happy offense. I expect Houston to look to add depth at one of two areas, the right side of the offensive line, where they lost both tackle Eric Winston and guard Mike “biscuit” Brisiel, or outside linebacker, where Houston looks to backup fourth-year man Conner Barwin and second-year weakside pass rusher, Brooks Reed. In real life, we are hoping Whitney Mercilus, whose aggressive motor is a perfect fit for defensive coordinator Wade Phillips’ defense, falls to 26. Since both Mercilus and Wright are off the board in this mock, I see the Texans looking to develop that right side of the offensive line. The problem is there is no player at that position that makes sense at the 26th pick. The Texans love tight ends and this time it’s not their fault. Coby Fleener from Stanford is truly the best player available in this scenario. Since a stud receiver isn’t available, a stud tight end makes just as much sense. Kubiak uses tight ends better than anyone in the league and Fleener fits the locker room as well. Besides, we really want Mohamed Sanu in the second round.

27. New England Patriots: Courtney Upshaw – Linebacker – Alabama
Pick made by Richard Hill, managing editor of Pats Pulpit (Twitter: PatsPulpit)

Explanation: Upshaw has received some flack due to poor interviews and questionable hustle during workouts. However, his production on the field is undeniable. He is a game-changing outside linebacker that the Patriots need dearly and he can start from day one. He’s a top 20 talent who, luckily, has fallen down to the end of the first round. While he may not be as athletic as Pittsburgh’s LaMarr Woodley, Upshaw’s skill set fits what the Patriots would want from this spot – a stout run defender who can cause pressure on passing downs. He has the strength to stonewall tackles on running downs and the violent arms to get by them and make plays. Upshaw’s speed is not elite, but is sufficient. He also fills a perfect role on the Patriots. He can play opposite of Rob Ninkovich, complementing the latter’s coverage skills. Additionally, Upshaw has the versatility to play multiple spots on defense: 3-4 outside linebacker, 4-3 end, 4-3 tackle, 3-3 end and maybe even some inside linebacker and special teams. His instincts are top notch and there will always be room for a player like him. Any character concerns will be held in check by the Patriots’ strong locker room. Upshaw presents great value at the end of the first and the Patriots are lucky to have him.

28. Green Bay Packers: Devon Still – Defensive tackle – Penn State
Pick made by Brandon Benson, who writes the Green Bay Packers blog at Packers.blogspot.com (Twitter: AcmeBrandon)

While many people noticed that B.J. Raji wasn’t very good in 2011, it should be pointed out that he had little help from his teammates on the defensive line. Ryan Pickett is still a good run stuffer, but it’s questionable whether any of the other defensive lineman even deserve a roster spot in the NFL. Still is probably ranked below Michigan State defensive tackle Jerel Worthy on most mock draft boards, but I prefer Still because he outperformed Worthy on the playing field last season. There’s also a lot of mock draft support for USC defensive end Nick Perry, but the Packers really need a lineman who could play as a 4-3 defensive tackle or as a 5-technique defensive end in a 3-4 defense. Perry could be a very good 4-3 end but it’s questionable whether he could convert to linebacker. Otherwise he doesn’t fit in with the Packers defense. While linebacker is a need too, the defensive line needs the help even more. Devon Still would immediately become the second best defensive lineman on the roster if he were selected.

29. Baltimore Ravens: Stephen Gilmore – Cornerback – South Carolina
Pick made by Tony Lombardi, founder of the 24×7.com blogs and lead writer on its Ravens blog (Twitter: ravens_247)

In the words of Director of Player Personnel Eric DeCosta, the Ravens scouting department looks at the 2012 NFL Draft as a “depth draft.” That may be an indication that the Ravens will move back in an effort to acquire more picks. And if the draft unfolds like this mock version has, the temptation to do exactly that will be strong for Ozzie Newsome and company. However, if committed to the pick and if they stick with their long-time best player available approach, it will be hard for them to pass on Gilmore. Gilmore provides a nice combination of size and speed and he brings a great attitude and work ethic. His tenacity and willingness to improve match up perfectly with Coach John Harbaugh’s style. The rub here for the Ravens is that they invested a first round pick in 2011 in CB Jimmy Smith and $50 million in CB Lardarius Webb. If Newsome views this as an embarrassment of riches, a trade back is likely or they might opt for Georgia Tech wide receiver Stephen Hill.

30. San Francisco 49ers: Jonathan Martin – Offensive tackle – Stanford
Pick made by Steve Spooner, team editor for 49ersGab.com (Twitter: 49ersgab)

Explanation: The biggest need the 49ers have left to address is the offensive line. Martin is someone the 49ers have had their eye on for some time now and his abilities at the position and his relationship with Jim Harbaugh makes this a smart move. The biggest weakness of the team last year was the offensive line and teams like Baltimore and New York exposed that. Martin will start his rookie season and clear paths for Frank Gore and newcomer Brandon Jacobs, but the biggest reason he starts will be his ability to to keep Alex Smith off his back. While Martin is truly a left tackle, he could spend his rookie year on the right side just to make the offensive line better as a hole.

31. New England Patriots: Harrison Smith – Safety – Notre Dame
Pick made by Richard Hill, managing editor of Pats Pulpit (Twitter: PatsPulpit)

Explanation: The Patriots’ secondary was deplorable last season due to the lack of depth at safety. They were forced to play mroe than seven different players at free safety due to injuries and a dearth of additional talent. The Patriots have added some depth through free agency with the signing of Steve Gregory, but they still need another player or two to solidify the position. With Mark Barron off the board, Smith is the next best safety to be selected. Smith is an under-appreciated athlete with fantastic instincts. While he may seem slightly limited as a center fielder, his versatility at both safety positions makes him more valuable and a perfect addition for the Patriots backfield.

32. New York Giants: Stephen Hill – Wide receiver – Georgia Tech
Pick made by Ed Valentine, editor in chief of Big Blue View (Twitter: bigblueview)

Explanation: The Giants could go in a lot of directions here. They could take Boise State running back Doug Martin. They could take one of several offensive linemen. They could grab a defensive end like Nick Perry or Chandler Jones. General Manager Jerry Reese loves unusual athletes with tremendous upside, though, and Hill fits the description at 6-foot-4, 215 pounds with sub-4.4 speed in the 40-yard dash. The Giants have no reliable third receiver right now. Hill could be that — and more.

First, a real quick recap of the non-senior committee 2012 finalists:

Inducted Into the Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of 2012:

Dermontti Dawson
Chris Doleman
Cortez Kennedy
Curtis Martin
Willie Roaf

Final five candidates not inducted:
Bill Parcells
Cris Carter
Charles Haley
Andre Reed
Aeneas Williams

Rest of the Final 15 not included:
Jerome Bettis
Tim Brown
Edward DeBartolo Jr.
Kevin Greene
Will Shields

In your average year, we make the assumption that any of the finalists that are eligible to return will make the finalists list again the following year. However, there are a few candidates in 2013 that may not, for various reasons:

Bill Parcells – Normally there is no way one of the top 10 guys fall off the list, unless they reach the senior candidate stage. But normally these guys aren’t flirting with resuming their careers either. Parcells is reportedly the top choice of Sean Payton to replace him during his one year suspension, which would kick Parcells back off the list. Just the rumors that Parcells might take the job alone might force him down, even if he doesn’t end up taking the job.

Edward DeBartolo Jr. – Depending on who you ask, DeBartolo is a fringe candidate for the Hall at best, especially given the circumstances around his departure from the league. With a strong class coming in, he might struggle to make the top 15 again.

Kevin Greene – Greene is a player that a lot of people have mentioned in the years we’ve been doing Hall of Fame predictions, but strictly from the eye-test, he’s always felt like a fringe player to us. Then again, frankly Richard Dent, John Randle, Cortez Kennedy and Chris Doleman would have been in that same category, and all four of them have been chosen. But if the class is strong enough, Greene might face some difficulties.

As mentioned above, the list of players eligible for the first time in 2013 is relatively strong—although that might end up working against some of them, as they possibly could split votes since many played similar positions.

The list is headed by:

Guard/Tackle Larry Allen – 11 Pro Bowls, six first-team All-Pro selections, All-Decade 90’s & 00’s
Tackle Jonathan Ogden – 11 Pro Bowls, four first-team All-Pro selections, All-Decade 00’s
Defensive Tackle Warren Sapp – seven Pro Bowls, four first-team All-Pro selections, All-Decade 90’s & 00’s
Defensive End Michael Strahan – seven Pro Bowls, four first-team All-Pro selections, All-Decade 00’s

Also on the list:
Defensive Lineman Bryant Young
Safety John Lynch
Running Back Priest Holmes
Quarterback Steve McNair
Kicker Morten Andersen

Any of the first list could arguably be first year inductions, and almost assuredly will be finalists. The second set will have a more difficult time, but still could easily make the final 25. A couple might sneak into the final 15.

Finally, we’ve got to look at the list of 11 (due to a tie) semifinalists that didn’t make it last year:

Steve Atwater
Don Coryell
Roger Craig
Terrell Davis
Clay Matthews
Karl Mecklenburg
Donnie Shell
Paul Tagliabue
Steve Tasker
Ron Wolf
George Young

Not a terribly strong list of semifinalists, with a special teamer, a couple of good but not great linebackers that were in the running for the first time last year and a few contributors that don’t strike us as likely inductees in the near term. So, our list of predicted 2013 Pro Football Hall of Fame Finalists:

Larry Allen
Morten Andersen
Jerome Bettis
Tim Brown
Cris Carter
Kevin Greene
Charles Haley
John Lynch
Jonathan Ogden
Andre Reed
Warren Sapp
Will Shields
Michael Strahan
Aeneas Williams
Ron Wolf

That gives us five first time finalists and only one contributor on the list. And plenty of questions:

• Will the voters finally start to clear up the waiting list at WR with Brown, Carter and Reed, and Marvin Harrison coming into the picture next year?

• With three strong offensive linemen on the list, and Walter Jones breathing down their neck in 2014 (not to mention Kevin Mawae, Chris Samuels and Orlando Pace joining the list the couple years after), do one or two make it, or do their votes cancel each other out and create another log jam?

• Similar scenario with defensive linemen, where Haley, Sapp and Strahan could be competing for votes?

This year, we’ve decided to make separate picks here at Zoneblitz, and will finally officially make a contest where readers can submit their picks.

Our 2013 Pro Football Hall of Fame Inductees:

Andy: It’d be unusual for multiple offensive linemen to get elected. But it happened in 2011 with two great candidates and I think in 2012 the nominees are too good to ignore. Will Shields deserves to get in but he will have to wait one more season, as the profiles of Allen and Ogden are both slightly more impressive, especially if using Super Bowl rings as a tiebreaker (I’m also hoping to see former Packers guard Jerry Kramer get another shot at the Hall as a senior candidate, which might make it that much more difficult for Shields to get in this year).

Charles Haley was a weird and possibly troubled dude while playing in the NFL, if you believe what you read. And his profile, at five Pro Bowls and two first place All Pro lists, is less than I would have expected. But you can’t argue with results. He helped San Francisco get to Super Bowls. And then when he went to Dallas, the Cowboys went to Super Bowls. Haley is a hall of famer.

I do believe the Hall of Fame voters will feel the pressure of rising criticism toward their inability to get at least one of the wide receivers into the Hall. Reed seems to have the lead in terms of support. It’s my belief that Brown has a slight edge in deserving to be enshrined first, though I think he probably ultimately will be the last of the three. I’m guessing voters ultimately move toward Carter with the other two following in the next few years. If the voters fail at this again, then I think a spot opens for Jerome Bettis to join the class of 2013. As it is, I see him waiting one more year.

The fifth spot was tough. I think Shields is the most deserving, but that would buck two trends: Too much of a slant toward offensive players and too many offensive linemen. So unfortunately he waits one more year. I’ll go with John Lynch being the surprise enshrinee. He went to nine Pro Bowls. He only has two All Pro selections. But he helped a once-embarrassing Tampa Bay franchise make the Super Bowl. And he’s part of an era where safeties gained tremendously in prominence. I think we’ll see this position honored more and more as guys like Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu hang ‘em up.

Tony: I was all over the board this year with my choices. At one point or another I’ve had Bettis, Brown, Ogden, and Shields all making it—and I think all are going to get there. In fact, Shields probably deserved it last year, although I think if Randall McDaniel had to wait until year three, all guards should have to wait. Ogden could also easily claim a first year entry, but in the end I don’t see the non-glamor positions getting more than one guy in two years in a row. I was tempted to go really crazy and put all three wide receivers in one class—I do think that the criticism over not putting in any last year reached a new level, and at least some voters will feel obligated to “correct” this.

In the end, I left Bettis and Brown off because they didn’t make the final 10 this past year. In fact, this may be overall one of the safest sets of picks out there, with four of the five picks being from the final 10 in the 2012 class (with Parcells being the odd one out. We left him off our finalist list, assuming he will not be eligible).

So who are your picks? Let us know in the comments below.

That might be less important for the Dolphins, who lost out not only on Manning, but on Matt Flynn, Robert Griffin III and even lesser potential upgrades like Kyle Orton before signing David Garrard Monday afternoon.

The Dolphins, despite their 6-3 finish, are not on the cusp of being a championship team. There is some talent on the roster, but they’ve got holes at several positions, now including safety, where the team chopped captain Yeremiah Bell today to create cap space. … Might have been a good idea to create that space back when they had a shot at Manning, if they ever really did, but who am I?

One must wonder what they were doing in their effort to attract a quarterback when they traded top wide receiver target Brandon Marshall for just a couple third round picks. Had they landed Manning, some free agents likely would have eagerly followed. But with the likelihood now being either Garrard, who is less than a year removed from back surgery, or another season of Matt Moore, Miami becomes somewhat less attractive to big name players looking to play with big name signal callers.

And Moore isn’t a terrible option, either, at least in the short-term. He’s got a career quarterback rating of 80.1 and posted an 87.1 rating last season. While nobody is going to be carving a bronzed bust of Moore for Canton anytime soon, he is more than just a serviceable stopgap for a team that has not had a true franchise quarterback since Dan Marino retired after the 1999 season. Maybe not the worst case scenario for the Dolphins would be what one Twitter user suggested: Modifying the 2011 “Suck For Luck” slogan into “Blow for Barkley,” roll with Moore for another season and hope for the worst.

Perhaps the biggest loser in all of these offseason quarterback derbies so far is San Francisco. Alex Smith likely would not have stuck around with the 49ers if not for the lockout in 2011, but he did stay and, with the support of a coach who believed in him (and Frank Gore and a stout defense), Smith had by far his most productive season. He was a likely returnee in 2012 too – until the 49ers got involved in the Manning sweepstakes.

When that happened, Smith understandably started looking for his own employer in 2012. Jed York indicates in a tweet that the 49ers have an offer on the table, but now who knows whether San Francisco can woo him back.

The 49ers have done a nice job of upgrading the talent at wide receiver during free agency, bringing in Mario Manningham from New York and luring Randy Moss out of retirement. But as a team attempting to take the next step after a 13-3 season – and as the team now employing a diva like Moss – do you want to put your fortunes in the hands of Colin Kaepernick or Scott Tolzien? Or possibly free agent Josh Johnson?
I’ve seen reports that the team is happy with the progress those two second-year guys have made throughout the last several months, but that’s pretty uninspiring for a team that was a couple bad bounces from making the Super Bowl. I don’t think they’re yet ready to take the helm of a team with Super Bowl aspirations.

And while I agree that signing Manning would have been a no-brainer if he’d said yes, the team now faces the downside of that failed courtship. And, at this point, if bringing back Smith fails, the 49ers will be left with a very strong supporting cast with no obvious candidate ready to step up and be a leader.

That could be the recipe for a huge and disappointing step back.

But it was after a second loss to Washington dropped New York’s record to 7-7 that something clicked and this team went on one of the more dominant runs seen in awhile. So what happened? And what do the Giants have to do in order to stay on top?

Ed Valentine, editor in chief of the Big Blue View, says more good seasons could be on the way. He shared the following thoughts with Zoneblitz:

Zoneblitz: You can’t do much better than a Super Bowl championship. But at one point this team was 7-7. What caused the turnaround?

Ed Valentine: I think the Giants got healthy on defense. They also all bought in and played as a unit. That might seem like a small thing, but the “All In” phrase they came up with was a mantra for them.

Zoneblitz: How is this team set up to remain competitive and push for another deep run in 2012 and beyond?

Valentine: This team will remain competitive as long as Eli Manning is healthy and in his prime years, Tom Coughlin is the coach and Jerry Reese is the GM. They aren’t perfect, but the Giants are smart, they know what they want and what they are, they build a team the right way and they will always be in the mix. Can they make another deep run in 2012? Too many variables with injuries and all to be able to predict that with any certainty.

Zoneblitz: Eli Manning really took his game to another level in 2011. Where do you think he ranks among NFL quarterbacks and what do you expect to see from him in 2012?

Valentine: He is top tier, maybe top five or six in my mind. I would expect to see what you always get from Eli — fearless competitiveness, some big plays, some ugly ones, lots of passing yards and another outstanding season.

Zoneblitz: One thing that struck me was the relentless pass rush from about four different defensive ends. There has been some talk that Osi Umenyiora is unhappy. Will all those guys be back next year?

Valentine: It looks that way. It seems like winning has cured a lot of what ails Umenyiora. He could still be traded, but a team will have to pony up a pretty good offer, I think.

Zoneblitz: The run game was inconsistent throughout 2011. Brandon Jacobs has been released and Ahmad Bradshaw has some physical issues? Who will join him in the backfield in 2012?

Valentine: The real question now is whether the Giants will give a full opportunity to Da’Rel Scott, a seventh-round draft choice in 2011, or use a fairly high draft choice on a running back this April.

Zoneblitz: The wide receiver play all season was fantastic. Can Victor Cruz repeat his 2011 performance? And what happens with Mario Manningham?

Valentine: Manningham is out the door. Cruz will be good, but he will also be a marked man. Let’s see how he handles fame, how he handles the offseason, how happy/unhappy he is about his contract when the season starts.

Zoneblitz: I read where the Giants have to make a lot of decisions on free agent defensive backs. How will that shake out?

Valentine: Well, the primary questions revolve around Aaron Ross and Terrell Thomas. Ross started this season after Thomas was injured. The expectation is that Ross will be let go and Thomas will be kept, but we will see.

Zoneblitz: The Giants just franchise-tagged a punter. How important was Steve Weatherford in the team’s success and is he worth that commitment?

Valentine: He was incredibly important, and after what the Giants suffered through with Matt Dodge during 2010 he is certainly worth the commitment.

Zoneblitz: What would you like to see the Giants do in free agency and the draft?

Valentine: For me, the Giants need to add some youth to their offensive line. I think they also need a running back, and definitely need to add at least one tight end.

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Previous In Depth: New England Patriots
First In Depth: Indianapolis Colts

The Patriots have won or tied for 11 straight division titles (losing by tiebreaker in 2002 and 2008) and, during that span, have played in five Super Bowls.

Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and crew could not quite pull off that elusive final win. But despite injuries and some weaknesses on defense, they were right in the mix until the season’s final Sunday.

So, is another run in store in 2012? And just how long can this group keep it up? Richard Hill, an assistant editor with Pats Pulpit, shared his thoughts with Zoneblitz.

Zoneblitz: New England went to another Super Bowl but came up just short in the end. How does the result grade against your expectations going into the season?

Richard Hill: Heading into the season, the Patriots looked to see progress from a team that finished 14-2 in the regular season, but fell short in the playoffs. They wanted to see the team push further in the playoffs and to see development from the younger players. Did they have Super Bowl potential? Absolutely.

Do they have a chance to make another run next season? Definitely.

For every letdown from the 2011 season, whether it was a setback by Devin McCourty, a free agent miss like Chad Ochocinco, or just the injury bug to the entire defense (Rob Ninkovich and Vince Wilfork were the only two players to remain healthy and start the entire season as Kyle Arrington and Kyle Love started the season as back-ups), there was a corresponding upswing, such as the emergence of Rob Gronkowski, the learning curve of Nate Solder, and the pure dominance of Andre Carter.

The fact that the 2011 Patriots made the Super Bowl may not have been a surprising result; however, the path to the championship was unexpected and made the season special.

Zoneblitz: In the wake of the Super Bowl loss, there was some radio talk that the game tarnishes some of the luster off Tom Brady’s career. What are your thoughts on that?

Hill: I disagree with those sentiments.

10 Full Seasons
9 Playoff Appearances
7 Pro Bowl Nominations
6 AFC Championship Appearances
5 Super Bowl Appearances
3 Super Bowl Victories
3 All Pro Nominations
2 Regular Season MVP Awards
2 Super Bowl MVP Awards

Zoneblitz: Despite a great record, the Patriots were quite vulnerable defensively in 2011. What were the problems and how can they be addressed?

Hill: The Patriots had a glaring issue on each side of the ball. On defense, the team couldn’t fight through all the injuries and were forced to the depths of the roster to put together a squad. The secondary lost every Week 1 starter for a point in the season (Ras-I Dowling, Leigh Bodden, and Josh Barrett for the season, Devin McCourty and Pat Chung for a span of a couple games) and the team was without any quality depth at safety. As a result, McCourty was unable to play aggressively and was often burned in coverage due to lack of safety support. A big need is to address the weakness at the safety position by bringing in both a quality free agent, with a young talent from the draft.

On offense, the Patriots were unable to spread the field. The Patriots had a cone-shaped offense, where they had deep threats up the middle in Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski, while the outside threats were short-route runners. This type of offense is much easier to defend and the Giants were able to stop the attack. The Patriots need a vertical threat- not just a deep threat- on the outside in order to make the offense more well-rounded. Picking up Brandon Lloyd or drafting a Marvin Jones would make sense.

Zoneblitz: BenJarvus Green-Ellis is a free agent and there is at least talk of Kevin Faulk retiring. What happens to the Patriots rushing attack in 2012?

Hill: The Patriots knew that Kevin Faulk was at the end of his career and understood that BJGE could be walking after the season. Last draft, the Patriots snagged 2nd round Shane Vereen and 3rd round Stevan Ridley to bolster the running corps and to provide depth for the upcoming years. BJGE is a steady running back who doesn’t fumble, which is extremely valuable, but he’s not much of a “threat” when compared to other running backs in the league. Look for the Patriots to try and re-sign BJGE for a reasonable price and, regardless of the BJGE situation, comfortably move ahead with Ridley, Danny Woodhead, and Vereen.

Zoneblitz: Chad Johnson was largely invisible most of the season and the team seemed to lack a game breaking deep receiver. Is this a position you expect the team to address? And who is out there that might make sense?

Hill: A common misconception that surrounds the Patriots offense is that they need a deep receiver. Tom Brady has never been a strong deep ball quarterback. He lacks the arm strength and deep touch to make the throws and relies on an intermediate and short timing offense. What the Patriots need is a vertical receiver who can hit all the routes on the outside- and they need this type of player badly. Brandon Lloyd is a free agent option and there are a few players in the draft (Marvin Jones, Marvin McNutt) who definitely make sense.

Zoneblitz: How is Rob Gronkowski’s recovery going? Do you expect Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez can repeat their 2011 performances?

Hill: This isn’t founded on anything, but Gronkowski should be ready for the start of the season. Gronk plays football. That’s it. As for their performances, Gronkowski had one of the best seasons for a tight end in the history of the game; if he goes anywhere near his production as both a receiver and a blocker, I would be surprised. Look for a slight regression in his numbers as teams focus on eliminating him. Should the Patriots find their outside receiver, Hernandez should see a slight improvement as he becomes a more consistent weapon.

Zoneblitz: Wes Welker has been franchised so he’s unlikely to go anywhere. Are there other priority free agents you think the team should retain?

Hill: If I had to label a few priority free agents, I would tab Kyle Love and Mark Anderson as the top options. Both players would provide consistency on defense and both became standouts over the season. Matthew Slater isn’t a priority, but his leadership value shouldn’t be understated. A few of the elder statesmen who should be retained are Gerard Warren, Andre Carter, and Deion Branch. Warren has value as a rotational defensive end, while Carter had a fantastic season. Branch has definitely lost a step, but should provide solid value as a #3 receiver.

Zoneblitz: How are the Patriots set for another making another deep run in the playoffs heading into 2012?

Hill: The Patriots will definitely benefit from the weaknesses of other AFC teams. There are no real challengers in the AFC East as the Dolphins remain without a quarterback, the Jets have a troubling locker room, and the Bills are the Bills. The AFC West is always a middling division without any elite teams. The AFC North is aging as the hearts of the Steelers and Ravens defenses struggle to find youth. On the other hand, the Bengals are young, but are a couple pieces away from competing. The AFC South seems to be rebuilding, outside of Houston, who are definitely a threat with a healthy offense.

Currently, the three teams that will stand in the way of a Patriots trip through the playoffs are the Steelers, the Ravens, and the Texans. All three have elite defenses with strong offensive attacks. However, the Steelers and Ravens seem to be on a downturn, while the Texans are swinging upwards. If the Patriots can improve their secondary and their outside receiver threats, then they should be able to stay ahead of the AFC competition and have another shot at the Super Bowl.

Zoneblitz: How much longer do you expect the Brady/Belichick tandem to stick around?

Hill: Brady looks to have 2-3 more elite years in the tank and 4-5 overall. Belichick should stick around until the end of Brady’s career- and maybe even through the career of Brady’s eventual replacement.

Zoneblitz: What would you like to see the Patriots do in free agency and the draft?

Hill: I’d like to see the Patriots bolster their defensive line with an elite defensive end prospect, improve their secondary with a top safety, and add a dangerous outside receiver threat. Those are the three priorities.

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