A Moment Please

FIFA Football World Cup Knockouts 2018

noreply@blogger.com (Vyankatesh) — Sat, 30 Jun 2018 13:00:00 +0000

It has been a fortnight since the Football World Cup 2018 commenced in Russia. 32 teams from across the world played some scintillating football in the group stages and reaffirmed football's popularity as the most watched sport in the world.

The battle is now set to move to the knockout stages - where you play to win. A loss means you are on the next flight home. A win means you are one steps closer to laying your hands on the glorious trophy.

A win at the world cup sets the country on the verge of euphoria. This is what every footballer dreams of playing in his life time.

Lets have a quick recap on the results of the group stage.

Group A

Uruguay topped the group, ahead of the hosts Russia. The host country was not given have promising chances at the start of the Cup, but playing in your home country to the cheering crowd is known to boost the adrenaline to unseen levels, propelling the team to victory.

Mo Salah's Egypt were knocked out in the group stage itself.

Group B

No surprises here. Spain and Portugal are through in this group, in that order. Ronaldo has set the Cup on fire with some classy goals, while Spain had some really anxious moments on the way to the top of the group.

Group C

Once again, no surprises here. France and Denmark are through to the group. France is bound to encounter some very heavy traffic in the group stage, if they have to make a move to the finals.

Group D

This group saw the most scintillating battles of the group stage. Going into last round of the group stages, Croatia were already through , while both Argentina and Nigeria had great chances to move ahead. Argentina had a last gasp winner in the last round and have made it to the knockout stages with Croatia.

Messi, finally, found the net, in the last match, and looked up to the heavens to say Thanks. For Argentina to move ahead, they will need his individual brilliance and team work.

Group E

This group saw Brazil and Switzerland move ahead. Both these teams worked like well oiled machines. Serbia and Costa Rica were knocked out in the group stages from this group.

Group F

This one saw the biggest upset of the Cup.

Defending Champions Germany were knocked out. Reams can be written about the German bandwagon coming to a halt. Mexico and Sweden made it through, with Sweden being the surprise package.

Group G

One of the easiest group of the Cup, Belgium and England are both through. Belgium has scored the highest number of goals in the group stage - a cool 9. England are not back with 8 goals.

Group H

This was a battle between mid ranked teams. Colombia and Japan are through in this group. Poland had high expectations, but they faltered and came in last. Senegal played well, but didn't have enough arsenal to make it to the knockouts.

The next few days promises some high octane football. The best teams in the world at the moment will play against each other at some very picturesque cities across Russia.

For all hardcore fans, the schedule looks like below :-

30 June to 3 July - The Round of 16

6 and 7 July - The Quarter Finals

10 and 11 July - The Semi Finals (remember, these are working days!)

15 July - The Finals

How does the road ahead look for these teams. Lets have a quick lowdown, with some predictions to make things a tad exciting.

The Round of 16 battle goes as below :-

Srl	Match	Fixture Level	Possible Winner
1	Uruguay Vs Portugal	Battle Royale	Portugal
2	France Vs Argentina	Derby	Argentina
3	Spain Vs Russia	Medium	Spain
4	Croatia Vs Denmark	Medium	Croatia
5	Brazil Vs Mexico	Battle Royale	Brazil
6	Belgium Vs Japan	Easy	Belgium
7	Sweden Vs Switzerland	Medium	Switzerland
8	Colombia Vs England	Medium	England

The Quarter Final Line Up will look like below :-

Srl	Match	Possible Winner
1	Portugal Vs Argentina	Argentina
2	Brazil Vs Belgium	Belgium
3	Spain Vs Croatia	Spain
4	Switzerland Vs England	England

The Semi Finals will be as below.

Srl	Match	Possible Winner
1	Argentina Vs Belgium	Argentina
2	Spain Vs England	England

And the finals will be between Argentina and England. And may the best team win among these two !!

The next set of matches will be defined by individual brilliance, watchful defending, elegant passes, classy strikes, curling free kicks and defining saves in front of the goal. The VAR will play a big role. Any physical play in the box will attract a penalty under the watchful eyes of the VAR and can induce the team into a loss.

All in all, it is bound to be a superb fortnight of world class games. Happy watching !!

The FIFA Football World Cup 2018

noreply@blogger.com (Vyankatesh) — Thu, 14 Jun 2018 14:09:00 +0000

The FIFA World Cup 2018 is finally here. The biggest sporting event in the world, held once in 4 years, will be held in Russia across multiple cities.

The World Cup

Its time to say Privet to Russia and the World Cup. (For the uninitiated, Privet means Hi in Russian). The battle cards are already drawn. 32 countries from across the world will take on each other for climbing the citadel of sporting history.

From Russia With Love

The power houses for international football - Brazil, Argentina, Germany, and France - are in the race to win the title. Giving them company are other illustrious countries - teams with a lot of potential but underachievers on the world stage - Spain, England, Portugal, Uruguay et al.

The World Cup is not without surprises. Big names like Italy and The Netherlands failed to make the cut during the tough qualifying competitions. The USA is also missing. They will certainly be missed, but their absence will not take the sheen off the Cup.

Who will Lift The Cup?

There are other equal and emerging countries who are set to make their mark in the World Cup. These include Belgium, who have a star line up, including Kevin De Bruyne, Mo Salah's Egypt and Croatia. Peru and Panama will be playing the Cup for the first time. Iceland , a country with a population of 0.3 Million , are also playing.

Russia will be hosting its first FIFA World Cup. 12 stadiums across 11 cities - from Yekaterinburg in the east, to the capital Moscow , to Kaliningrad to the West - play host to the matches, which will be watched by billions across the world.

Moscow Luzhniki

The Cup has not been without its share of controversies. Less than 48 hours before the start of the Cup, Spain has sacked its manager ( He got a new job at Real Madrid after the World Cup, and did not inform the bosses at his federation). This would certainly throw the Spanish team into turmoil. Spain are one of the top contenders for the Cup.

The Best of the Cup

The injury scares have been giving the fans some tense moments. Brazil's star striker Neymar Jr has come back into prim and proper shape at the very last moment . The star of this year's English Premier League - Mo Salah from Egypt - had an injury scary in the Champions League final in late May. He, too, is in Russia, to make his mark in the top flight of international football.

The best players are here :- Lionel Messi, Thomas Meuller, Iniesta, Neymar, Ronaldo and Mo Salah. They will score the best goals and set many a hearts racing.

Fans

The first match is between hosts Russia and Saudi Arabia. The match itself is a reflection of the fact that the World Cup is a melting pot of world culture. At one end, you have Russia where women can wear skirts smaller than the smallest, while women in Saudi Arabia need to cover themselves from head to toe.

There are a total of 8 groups, with each group having 4 countries. Each of the 4 countries the group play against each other. The top two make it to the knockout stages. The group stages will be played from 14 June to 28 June

Fans

Lets have a look at my assessment on how various teams will fare in the group stages.

Group A

This is one of the most open groups with Uruguay being the only one with a known reputation. It also includes the hosts and Mo Salah's Egypt.

I expect Uruguay and Egypt to move to the next stage.

Uruguay

Egypt

Russia

Saudi Arabia

Group B

This group includes the finest teams from Europe. Hands down, Spain and Portugal should make it to the next stages.

Spain

Portugal

Morocco

Iran

Group C

Once again, this is an open group with France being the only notable name. France and Denmark should make the cut.

France

Denmark

Australia

Peru

Group D

This is a tough group. Argentina made heavy weather of their qualifying campaign and qualified at the last gasp. Nigeria and Croatia will run Argentina close. Argentina (don't miss - they have Lionel Messi), and Nigeria would go through to the knockout stages.

Argentina

Nigeria

Croatia

Iceland

Group E

Brazil are hot favorites. Costa Rica had a great run 4 years ago, when they reached the quarter finals. Brazil and Switzerland should top this group.

Brazil

Switzerland

Costa Rica

Serbia

Group F

Germany, the reigning Champions, and Mexico should make their mark in this group. South Korea and Mexico can run them close.

Germany

Mexico

Sweden

South Korea

Group G

Belgium and England should move to the next stage in this group.

Belgium

England

Panama

Tunisia

Group H

This group does not have any star teams and each of them have a good chance of entering the knockouts. Colombia and Poland have the best chance to make the cut.

Colombia

Poland

Japan

Senegal

The matches to look out in the group stages are :-

15 June 2018 - Portugal Vs Spain

17 June 2018 - Brazil Vs Switzerland

17 June 2018 - Germany Vs Mexico

26 June 2018 - Nigeria Vs Argentina

28 June 2018 - England Vs Belgium

The Knockout stage is another ball game altogether. One bad match - and you are on the next flight home. One good match - and a top team can knocked out as you become the star of your country.

All in all, it promises to be an exciting World Cup. Do try your best to catch your favorite teams in action.

Winston Churchill once said :- Russia is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma. This very Russia will unwrap the Champions of World Football on 15 July 2018.

Enjoy the Cup !!

Ireland Votes To Legalize Abortion

noreply@blogger.com (Vyankatesh) — Sun, 27 May 2018 04:33:00 +0000

Bob Dylan once said,

Come senators, congressmen

Please heed the call

Don't stand in the doorway

Don't block up the hall

For he that gets hurt

Will be he who has stalled

There's a battle outside

And it is ragin'.

It'll soon shake your windows

And rattle your walls

For the times they are a-changin'.

And in the summer of 2018, the times are certainly changing in Ireland.

Life

Flashback to 2012 and 2013.

In late 2012, Savita Halappanavar , an Indian dentist in Ireland passed away due to complications arising out of pregnancy. Very unfortunately, she was denied an abortion, which was not allowed in Ireland, due to local laws.

The Irish Government took note of the unfortunate circumstances and put up a new law for approval, which would legalize abortion. This was in 2015. Back then, in Mar 2015, I wrote on this topic - Abortion - The Bridge To Life.

It was an irony that in the modern 21st century, people in an advanced nation like Ireland took an constricted view of the subject. Adding to the moral dilemna faced by the people was the view taken by the Church.

A strong collision seems inevitable between the government and the Church of Ireland with the Catholic Church on Saturday threatening to excommunicate members who vote for the abortion legislation in its current format.

An anti-abortion vigil saw Cardinal Sean Brady urging 5,500 people at the rally to lobby their politicians over a draft abortion bill.

Catholic bishops have branded changes to Ireland's strict abortion regime as morally unacceptable saying "if approved it would make the direct and intentional killing of unborn children lawful in Ireland."

A few months later, Ireland crowned itself in irony, be legalizing gay marriages. It was flabbergasting to note that gay marriages were ok but abortionw as not. I discussed the matter in The Irony of Ireland.

But then, as they say, nothing in life is permanent.

When the politicians are circumspect about the changes in law, owing to the negative perceptions it would create in their voter constituencies ; when the Church is still taking a contrary position on this important topic impacting public health; when the general public is caught between what is good for them and what is deemed good by their religion , a referendum comes to the rescue.

A nationwide referendum held in Ireland on 25th May 2018 resolved the matter once and for all.

Ireland voted overwhelmingly to overturn the abortion ban by 66.4% to 33.6%.

This victory promises new and safe times for Ireland and its woman. The Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar, who campaigned in favor of liberalization, said it was "a historic day for Ireland," and that a "quiet revolution" had taken place.

And yes, its purely incidental that the changes have come under the oversight of Leo, who is of Indian descent and a gay.

Certainly, its boils down to what Dylan said :- For the times they are a-changin'.

And here's the lady who changed it all.

Savita

Loudmouths

noreply@blogger.com (Vyankatesh) — Sat, 19 May 2018 13:39:00 +0000

Mark Twain once said, "It is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt."

Well, the inability to keep your mouth shut is the sign of a loud mouth. And this week, it was an intriguing encounter with two such men.

Loudmouth

The first one was Ram Madhav, a politician from the BJP.

A few days back, the CM of Jammu and Kashmir - Mehbooba Mufti - made a a request to GOI. The request was to cease anti-terror operations in the holy month of Ramazan.

Mufti said, "Everyone agreed that we must urge the Centre that government must think about a unilateral ceasefire like Vajpayee ji did in 2000. Encounters, crackdowns are causing trouble to common man. Efforts must be made to maintain environment so that both Eid and Amarnath Yatra are peaceful."

Before the GOI could respond to her request, either in positive or negative, Madhav bolted out of the stables. He vehemently opposed the suggestion. You can read his entire views here. Madhav often tries to consider himself as an unofficial spokesman of the GOI.

I expected the GOI to be a bit pragmatic, as it has always been. Soon after Mufti's request, the Home Minister of the GOI, Rajnath Singh announced an unilateral ceasefire

The Home Ministry said, “The Centre asks Security Forces not to launch operations in Jammu & Kashmir during the holy month of Ramzan. Decision taken to help the peace-loving Muslims observe Ramzan in a peaceful environment. HM Shri @rajnathsingh has informed the Chief Minister, J&K of Centre’s decision. Security Forces to reserve the right to retaliate if attacked or if essential to protect the lives of innocent people. The government expects everyone to cooperate in this initiative and help the Muslim brothers & sisters to observe Ramzan peacefully and without any difficulties”.

And as for Madhav, he was left licking his words.

The next one in this illustrious group is none other than the very vocal Arnab Goswami.

It was high drama after the vote counting of the elections in Karnataka. The biased Governor invited the BJP to form the government, though JD(S) + Congress combine had the majority. The Governor passed this decision at 9 PM, and scheduled the swearing in at 9 AM on the next day.

Malfeasance was evident in this action.

The Congress decided to take the battle to the next level, and decided to bring up the matter in the Supreme Court, the very night.

Goswami, sitting in his studio, started screaming in his trademark style - "How can the Congress bring up this frivolous matter for the Supreme Court in the dead of the night?" and mocked the political organisation.

The Supreme Court of India did not treat the matter casually, as Arnab had done. They heard the petition for 3.5 hrs the same night, between 2 AM to 5:30 AM.

The passed on some decisive and important actions on the same night and the next day. And their very actions proved very crucial. Although BJP had its CM sworn in on the next day, her had to quit his post a day later - due to the very fact that he did not have a majority.

Once again, Arnab was left licking his words, by the the Supreme Court, who decided to hear the matter that same night.

The events of the last few days has left one indelible impression. The world is full of loudmouths. Listen to them at your own risk. More often than not, they are grossly wrong. But they seem to project that they are right by screaming.

Stay away from loudmouths.

Job Creation In India - A Perspective

noreply@blogger.com (Vyankatesh) — Sat, 05 May 2018 15:48:00 +0000

A newspaper discussion on the topic of job creation in India has troubled and intrigued me for the most of last week. I am not an economics expert, but such subjects intrigue me.

What was the debate all about?

Well, some time last year, our very own Rahul Gandhi visited UC Berkeley (University of California at Berkeley). Rahul has an uncanny and unexplained habit of discussing ideas, related to India, on foreign soil.

A snippet of his speech is as below.

At the heart of this powerful engine which India has built with its blood, sweat and bare hands since 1947, are jobs and economic growth. No amount of growth is enough for India if it’s not accompanied by the creation of jobs. It doesn’t matter how fast you grow. If you are not creating jobs, you are not actually solving the problem. So the central challenge of India is jobs. Roughly 12 million young people, 12 million, enter the Indian job market every year.

Currently we are not producing enough jobs. 33,000 new youngsters are joint the job market every single day and yet the government is only creating 500 jobs a day.

Here, Rahul was asserting that 12 million people enter the job market every year and the number of jobs created are not sufficient. Needless to say, this becomes a hot potato as far as politics is concerned.

You can read his full speech here.

What happened later?

The story of insufficient job creation has been discussed in threads and pockets since then. There are a group of political parties who agree with Rahul's assessment, while the ruling BJP think otherwise.

Coming to the rescue of the GOI was Arvind Panagariya. Well, he is an established economist and the ex vice-chairman of the Niti Aayog (a GOI think tank).

In an article in the Economics Times on 2 May 2018, Arvind puts up the below thought :-

Around 15 Million people enter the 15-64 age bracket every year, but all of them don't enter the labor market because the Labor Force Participation Rate is low - around 54%

The number of people entering the job market every year is close to 8.5 Million (approx 15 Million * 55%), a far cry away from the 12 Million number put up by RG.

You can read his entire blog too.

Needless to say, this article was picked up by magazines supporting the current government, which proudly proclaimed - Panagariya Brings Clarity To Debate On Jobs: We Don’t Have To Create 12 Million Jobs Annually

What are my views?

First of all, lets understand LPFR.

The labor force participation rates is calculated as the labor force divided by the total working-age population. The working age population refers to people aged 15 to 64. (Refer this site)

And yes, there are some mistakes (small and large) in views expressed by Rahul and Arvind.

My proposition go as below.

We can have a careful assessment of the population of the country in the decades under consideration. The info is as below.

Year	Population (in Million)
1950	361
1960	449
1970	553

2000	1053
2010	1231
2015	1309

A person is considered as a potential candidate for being a part of the working age population if he/she is between 15 to 64 years of age.

The population data reveals the below.

Between 2000 and 2015, the population of the country grew by approx 17 Million per year. This means, almost 17 Million people will enter the working age population between 2015 and 2030.

Between 1950 and 1970, the population of the country grew by approx 9.6 Million per year. This means, almost 9.6 Million people will exit the working age population between 2015 and 2030 (1950 + 65 years = 2015).

Both these data points indicate that the net addition of the people to the working age population is approx 7.4 Million ( 17 - 9.6)

RG indicated that approx 12 Million people enter the job market every year. He is assuming a LPFR of approximately 70%, considering that 17 Million people are added to the working age every year. The aspirational assumption of LPFR at 70% is a good sign.

AP's assessment of 8.5 Million people entering the job market every year is grossly wrong. His first mistake - assuming a working population addition of 15 Million per year instead of 17 Million per year. His second mistake - he assumed a LPFR of 54% considering the current and historical data.

India is an aspirational young country and we should target a LPFR which is prevalent in developed countries in the world. It will be worthwhile to note that the EU sees a LPFR of 73.2% - which means that if there are 100 people in the 15-64 age group, around 73 people are a part of the active labor force.

Net net, things will look like the below for the next 15 years :-

Around 17 Million people are added to the working age population every year.

Ideally, around 70% of them should be a part of the labor force. With this, almost 12 Million people should get the opportunity to be included in the labor force every year.

The net addition to the working age population is approximately 7.4 Million per year.

Approx 5.2 Million (7.4 * 70%) new jobs have to be definitely created every year.

6.8 Million may get accommodated in the currently available jobs.

Assuming some of the old jobs go out of vogue ( say 33% of the 6.8 Million), another 2.2 Million new jobs should be created every year.

This means around 7.4 Millions new jobs are to be created every year.

Summary :-

17 Million people will enter the working age population every year, for the next 15 years.

Of these, 12 Million people should enter the labor force every year, for the next 15 years. At least 12 million people should get jobs in formal, informal and semi-formal sectors of the economy..

7.4 Million new jobs are to be created every year, for the next 15 years.

For a successful and a growing country, healthy job creation is very necessary. RG has broadly understood the expectations of the future, while AP has taken a constricted view of the subject.

I certainly hope that the jobs created in the future will give adequate income and stability to the population which comes of age in the next 15 years.

Vanya

noreply@blogger.com (Vyankatesh) — Sat, 28 Apr 2018 16:14:00 +0000

By the Grace of God,

She arrived, & left us awed.

By the Blessings of Almighty,

My queen, my beauty.

At her first cry,

My heart missed a beat.

With tears in my eyes,

We welcomed our angel sweet.

For months,

We had waited for her.

For our prayers,

She was God's answer.

Here she was, smiling,

My heart was aloft, ringing.

Our little bundle of joy, roaring,

In our life, a new spring.

Our daughter, Vanya, was born on 8th April 2018 - 7:40 AM :-)

The Nirav Modi PNB Scam

noreply@blogger.com (Vyankatesh) — Sun, 18 Feb 2018 07:33:00 +0000

Nirav Modi. You might not have heard his name until a week back.

Yet today, he finds himself in the center of a massive storm engulfing the Indian Banking system. Caught in the whirlpool are the biggest banks in India - PNB, SBI, Axis Bank, UCO Bank, Allahabad Bank.

Where is the money?

So what exactly is the Nirav Modi - PNB scam?

Consider things like this.

The parties involved :-

1. The Importer :- Nirav Modi is in India and an importer of uncut diamonds and other precious stones, in the business of creating jewelry out of them.

2. The Exporter :- The exporter is somewhere across the world - say in a diamond hub like Belgium or a trading hub like Hong Kong. He will export his stuff to Modi.

The export-import transaction between Modi and his exporter would need to pass through banks.

3. The Importer's Bank :- Modi approaches a bank in India - in this case Punjab National Bank (PNB) - to issue a Letter of Credit (LC) (This is different from the Letter of Undertaking) in favor of the exporter.

The Letter of Credit mentions the importer, the exporter, the goods to be shipped, the amount payable and the payment terms ( say full payment after 180 days).

PNB issues a Letter of Credit, promising to pay the exporter if the exporter ships the good as per the terms and conditions, and the importer does not pay.

PNB does not hold any direct liability in issuing this LC. It holds a contingent liability ( contingent to Modi paying the exporters as per the terms of conditions). To secure itself against the contingent liability, PNB seeks collateral from Modi.

PNB earns fees for issuing the LC.

The Letter of Credit is then sent to a bank in the exporter's country - say UCO Bank, HK.

4. The Exporter's Bank :- The exporters bank advises the exporter of the receipt of the letter of credit. The bank does not hold liability for advising the letter of credit. It typically earns fees for this advising.

This entire process of Letter of Credit is a regular process for Trade Finance. Every days - lakhs of Letters of Credits are issued by banks across India favoring exporters across the world. The reverse also happens very extensively. Millions of Letters of Credits are issued by foreign banks in favor of exporters in India.

The movement of Goods and Money :-

1. The exporter, after receiving the LC ships the goods to the importer (read Modi).

2. The exporter sends a bill to the Exporter's Bank( say UCO Hong Kong) , which in turn forwards it to Modi's Bank ( PNB ). PNB sends the bills to Modi for payment. The payment is due within 180 days.

3. On the due date, Modi says that he cannot pay the bill and needs a credit facility to repay the exporter.

4. Borrowing money in India will attract a rate of say 12%. Borrowing money in HK will attract a rate of say 4%. Modi decides to borrow in HK.

But who will give loans to Modi in HK, while Modi is in India?

This is where the Letter of Undertaking (LOU) and Buyers Credit come into picture.

The Buyers Credit and Letter of Undertaking (LOU) :-

1. An Indian bank's foreign branch ( say UCO HK ) agrees to give a loan to Modi , if his bank in India (PNB, India) gives a Letter of Undertaking (LOU).

2. A Letter of Undertaking is an assurance ( a guarantee) given by PNB India to UCO HK that Modi is known to them and they will pay if Modi does not pay.

3. PNB issues a LOU to UCO HK.

PNB does not hold any direct liability in issuing this LOU. It holds a contingent liability ( contingent to Modi paying the bank issuing the buyers credit as per the terms of conditions). To secure itself against the contingent liability, PNB seeks collateral from Modi.

3. UCO HK gives a buyers credit (a loan), with Modi as the borrower. (remember Modi is a buyer in the original transaction).

4. The money from the loan is used to pay to the exporter.

5. The importer (Modi) is expected to pay the loan as per the agreed terms and conditions

Once again - this entire process is a regular process in the world of Trade Finance, practiced by all banks across the world. Buyers Credit are permitted by the RBI to allow importers access to cheap global funds to meet the working capital needs. RBI stipulates a limit on the amount on the borrowing by a commercial entity (US$ 750 Million) and a limit on the term of the borrowing (say 5 years)

6. If the importer does not pay on the due date , two things can happen :-

-- The bank giving the Buyers Credit (say UCO HK) seeks money from the Bank which gave the LoU (say PNB) OR

-- The importer talks to the bank which gave the LoU (say PNB) and seeks an extension.

Once again - all this is standard business practice.

So if everything is as per the standard business practice, where did things fails?

Things failed when PNB issued LOU's to the foreign branches of Indian Banks like UCO HK, Axis Bank, SBI Bank , Allahabad Bank and Union Bank.

Here is the modus-operandi in the scam :-

When a LOU is issued, there are three broad steps :-

1. Collateral is collected from the importer to secure the bank against default. (some of the collateral is in cash, while the other is not in cash - say a property ).

2. A LOU is issued in the bank's core banking system.

3. The LOU is transmitted in electronic form using the SWIFT messaging system to the foreign bank.

Instead of following the standard operating procedure, people cheated the banks as below :-

1. Collateral was not collected from the importer before issuing the LOU, or only a part of it was collected. Such unsecured LOUs exposed PNB to risks.

2. LOU was not issued in the core banking system. As a result, the information about heavy LOUs being issued by PNB were not visible in the bank's balance sheet to the bank's management. Disproportionate LOUs to a single party, extended year after year, exposed PNB to risk.

3. The LOU was electronically transmitted directly from the SWIFT system, instead of it originating from the Core Banking System. The direct access is provided , usually, to manage exigencies. This direct transmission ensured that audits in the Core Banking System did not detect anomalies in the LOUs, thereby exposing PNB to risk.

4. Bank branches in foreign countries extended loans based on the LOU. They did not have means to assess the genuineness of the LOU, considering that they came through the SWIFT system. In short, they were hoodwinked.

Who is at risk in this scam?

1. The foreign branches of Indian Banks who have advanced loans are the ones with the biggest risk. They are out of funds.

2. These branches have given loans based on LOUs given by PNB. PNB thereby is the guarantor and is at risk.

3. The Indian public is at risk, because many of these banks are Public Sector Banks and are very often funded and capitalized by the janata's money.

What is the size of the scam?

PNB has supposedly issued LOUs upto Rs 11,000 crore without the knowledge of its management.

Different Banks like SBI, Axis, UCO, Allahabad Bank and Union Bank have extended loans against these (fake?) LOUs. Their risks are -

SBI - Rs 1360 Crores

UCO - Rs 2600 Crores

Allahabad Bank - Rs 2300 Crores

Union Bank - Rs 1900 Crores

Axis Bank, luckily, is risk free since it sold the buyer credit (loans) to other banks, much before the scam was known.

Meanwhile, Nirav Modi and co continue to be holed up happily in New York, sipping his green tea, enjoying the nice weather. The Indian investigators are meanwhile contemplating if he is enjoying the Indian khakaras with his tea, or the Belgian waffle.

Happy New Year 2018

noreply@blogger.com (Vyankatesh) — Sat, 13 Jan 2018 07:51:00 +0000

~~~~

The year is new,

There's lot to brew.

Our life, with it cues,

Will give you your dues.

There is lot to win,

Seek silence, within the din.

Be slow, n lie low,

Develop an effervescent glow.

Go along with the flow,

Through the year, you will grow.

Stay put, be content,

N the year will be well spent.

~~~~

Happy New Year - 2018

Wish you a very Happy New Year 2018 !!

Boxing Day Premier League

noreply@blogger.com (Vyankatesh) — Mon, 25 Dec 2017 06:01:00 +0000

We are exactly mid way through the English Premier League 2017-2018. The players are on the Christmas break right now, and will be back starting tomorrow with the Boxing Day Premier League fiesta.

EPL

Manchester City are the runaway leaders this year. With 18 wins and 1 draw from 19 fixtures, The Blues have scored a mammoth 60 goals this season. They are a clear 13 points ahead of their nearest (and cross city) rivals Manchester United. Most of their players have scored handsomely, taking them to the very top of the leader board.

Following City are the usual suspects - Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal and Spurs. Man U have had the most clean sheets this year. However, they have choked at crucial junctures (remember the last minute draw against Leicester a couple of days ago). Chelsea too have faltered at will, losing to the bottom scrapers West Ham United and Crystal Palace this season. They don't have a goal scoring striker apart from Morata, and it is hurting them a lot.

Liverpool, ably blessed by Salah's goal scoring streak could have done much much better. They have an astonishing 8 draws from 19 matches, the most in the Premier League this season. Their finishing ability is being tested and Salah's efforts are being diluted by these draws.

Arsenal and Spurs are doing well, but once in a blue moon. The best run for The Gunners this season were 3 consecutive wins in late November, with Ozil and Sanchez in good form. Otherwise, they have done well sporadically. Spurs have been winning matches, but losing them against the teams in top flight - having lost to Arsenal, M City and M United. Both Arsenal and Spurs face stiff opposition from themselves to finish in the top 4.

Burnley, who have played only 2 out of the last 5 seasons in the Premier League have done exceedingly well and are placed 7th. Their defense have been impressive and this looks to be the key to their success. Burnley have let in less goals(15) than Liverpool (23), Arsenal (23) and Spurs (18). 2015/2016 title winners Leicester are in the 8th spot. They had a rough start to the season with the matches against the top 6. Since then Leicester have done well with Vardy, Mahrez, Gray and Okazaki working well in tandem. Their performance against the leaders will determine their overall position at end of the season.

Everton are bubbling with energy under their new manager. Watford, too, have scored a decent number of goals to be placed 10th. It will be worthwhile to note that the last placed team - Swansea City (13 points) and the 10th placed team - Watford (22 points) have a difference of only 9 points between them. Any of them could sink into the dreaded relegation zone with a bad streak of matches. Swansea City, with a poor goal scoring record and Stoke City, with the worst defense look to be two firm relegation candidates. West Brom may fill in the third spot.

All in all, this has been an exciting first half of the Premier League 2017/2018. With 3 game weeks in the coming fortnight, and the world Cup just 5 months away, things promise to hot up. Many predict that M City have the cup in their bag. But then, there have been many a slip between the cup and the lip.

December Musings

noreply@blogger.com (Vyankatesh) — Sat, 16 Dec 2017 07:31:00 +0000

It has been a Dizzy December 2017!

If there's one thing which has dominated the headlines for a better part of this fortnight, it was Gujarat, Modi and Rahul. The elections in Modi's home turf of Gujarat grabbed, shall I say, needless, national attention. Congress loud mouth (read Mani Iyer) exceeded his brief and lost his reputation with the Oonch Neech remarks.

BJP went into an over drive to damn RG. The Badshah's left hand, Amit Shah, questioned Rahul's sudden piousness. The Big Boss (no, not Salman Khan, but Mr. Modi) claimed that Congress and Pakistan were hand in glove to defeat the BJP in Gujrat. He fell flat on his face when he found that the ex Prime Minister MMS and the ex Army Chief were part of the party where the supposed conspiracy was hatched. And the Pakis, for once surprisingly, let out a stiff rebuttal - "Don't drag us into your electoral debate". It takes years to build a reputation, but only 5 minutes to spoil it. Mr. Modi learnt it the hard way.

The smog in Delhi brought Indian callousness to the fore. When the Sri Lankan cricketers complained about the smog in the first few days of the New Delhi Test Match, and a few of them chucked up, the smart Indian coach Bharat Arun complained about their exaggeration. And when an Indian cricketer suffered the same fate on the field, all that he could do was shut up. Much ado about nothing?

A wet December was something new for Western and Southern India, with Cyclone Ockhi bringing in rainfall and destruction. Climate change is for real. Meanwhile, deadlines for Aadhaar linking to your mobile phone, bank account, PAN card, wife and near and dear ones are changing every other day. Padmavati is still in a limbo, with the the experts in Parliament having a sneak peak to decide if Indians are intelligent enough to watch the movie.

For years, Santa Claus is visiting children every year in Christmas, bringing joy and happiness. The same cannot be said about the Chinese who have made a habit to visit Doklam every year, and staying put for many months. Maybe they are missing the Xmas goodies back home.

Virushka was the new portmanteau word on the block. The Indian cricket captain, Virat Kohli, and the Bollywood starlet, Anushka Sharma, got hitched in an intimate wedding ceremony in far away Italy ! Thank God, the BJP did not link the Italian wedding to Sonia's Italian roots.

Few of us can take pride in influencing laws of the nation. Sunny Leone has done better than us. With her antics in the ManForce advertisement ( I am yet to see the steamer), the Information and Broadcasting Ministry has mandated blanket ban on broadcasting condom ads on TV between 6 AM to 10 PM, because they were unsuitable for viewing. The prudes in Delhi are at it again, developing anti-social laws. Meanwhile, Tuborg "Club Glasses", Royal Stag "CDs" and Chivas Regal "Music CDs" can continue to be on the waves. India is indeed riding high !

Rohit Sharma, meanwhile, slammed his third double century in an ODI against Sri Lanka, much to the delight of his wife on their second wedding anniversary. Up North, Vladimir Putin has put his hat in the ring, to be the President of Russia for the 4th time. Great Britain and the EU agreed on their Brexit divorce conditions. The maverick Indian entrepreneur, Vijay Mallya, is putting up a stiff fight in the courts in UK to avoid an extradition to India.

On the other side of the Atlantic, Disney agreed to buy Fox for a cool 52 Billion US$. That's a deep hole in Disney's pocket. #MeToo is gaining momentum, with who's who of Hollywood coming out of the closet and sharing their horror stories. Salma Hayek is the latest addition. The monster Harvey forced her to do a steamy scene way back in early 2000s, only to distribute her movie. Next target - Trump? After all, he has bragged about grabbing women ! Americans do have a President who can hardly be idolized.

Christmas is just a week away and the New year a fortnight away. Let's hope the news makers and news breaks take a chill pill in the coming fortnight !

One Year Of Demonetization

noreply@blogger.com (Vyankatesh) — Tue, 07 Nov 2017 15:42:00 +0000

8 Nov 2016 !

Exactly one year ago, this was the very day when 86% of cash was flushed out of the country. Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes were declared as invalid tender, acceptable only for deposits at bank, and for payment of some extremely essential payments like toll, railway booking etc.

What an upheaval !

A few days later, while the country reeled under the effects of Demonetization, I wrote this blog - D For Demonetization - and made this remark.

The day the 500-1000 notes were made illegal, I rushed to buy a kg of tomatoes from my neighboring store at half past ten in the night. It costed my Rs 30 a kg !

I hope come back a year later with the price of tomatoes and will let you know if the surgical strike against black money changed things - for better or for worse. Until then, राष्ट्र का निर्माण करने के लिए मैं कतार में हूँ !

And here I am back on 7 Nov 2017, exactly an year later.

On 5th Nov 2017, Sunday, I walked into a shop to buy some tomatoes. I asked for the price of tomatoes. The vendor said - Rs 20 for 1/4 of a kg. A piercing price, I should say ! I picked up 250 grams of tomatoes and walked away.

Next stop. Another shop, where I expected the price to be lesser. This was the very shop which sold me tomatoes at Rs 30 a kg an year ago. The situation was not remarkably different than the first shop. The price was Rs 60 per kg.

Shocking, ain't it !

We heard a lot of good points during demonetization. Demonetization promised to make life easier for common people like me and you.

The price of tomatoes and its trajectory over the past year is a far cry from the promised benefits.

Probably, what you and I did - "राष्ट्र का निर्माण करने के लिए मैं कतार में हूँ !" - didn't help. I think what actually happened was - "एक साल पहले, मैं काले धन वालों के काले धन का नव निर्माण के लिए क़तार मैं खड़ा था !!""

New Currency Notes in India

P.S. The best part of demonetization - the rainbow colored currency notes in India, the plethora of memes after the move, and the push India made towards a digital country. Rest all that you read is a figment of imagination !

P.S.2 RBI is still counting the notes which were deposited in the banks in the post demonetization era. Happy Counting !!

Never Mind

noreply@blogger.com (Vyankatesh) — Sun, 01 Oct 2017 08:06:00 +0000

~~~~

Those evenings, those nights,

Our memories were in reprise.

A dream then, over the years,

Later, they brought out tears.

Tender moments, small and nice,

Had my heart in a flutter.

When you were cold as ice,

Everything soon turned blur.

Lots n lots could have been,

If our life didn't spin.

If you'd try to hold me,

The past wouldn't have been eerie.

And then you let me go,

My heart, had a thunderous blow.

I reclused into an empty shell,

A missy turned a barren belle.

Since then, I have let go.

In my life, I don't miss a beau.

Nothing now could gimme spite,

I'm flying high, a fluttering kite.

No, I am not lovelorn,

Neither I'm a lady scorned.

Today, I am a dame free,

A lissome gal, a svelte beauty.

Now that you wanna come back,

To turn white, our story black.

No, I'm not in a bind,

I'll just tell you, Never Mind.

~~~~

Never Mind - Alicia Vikander

Self Service

noreply@blogger.com (Vyankatesh) — Sat, 30 Sep 2017 07:00:00 +0000

I visited an ice cream shop a few evenings ago, and was pleasantly surprised to see the below sign.

Self Service

Only if they could truly let me do Self Service in the shop :-)

Sujata Mastani

P.S. If you visit Pune, do not miss a visit to Sujata Mastani ! Ah, and yes, they don't accept cards.

P.S.2 Where was the last time where you were asked to do "Self Service" ?

Autumn

noreply@blogger.com (Vyankatesh) — Sat, 16 Sep 2017 09:30:00 +0000

~~~~

The grass, moist and green,

Speckled with leaves brown.

Something is near its end,

Causing a lot of frowns.

The dry ruffled leaves,

Enchant us with crackles.

Shedding what's not needed,

Pulling out all the shackles.

There's a nip in the air,

Trees are showing their flair.

And soon they will be bare.

Not a leaf to spare.

Without shedding a tear,

Without a moment of fear.

Ready to be austere,

Where did they err?

Mother Earth plays her ruse,

Much to the pain and boos.

The canvas has a million hues,

To the summer, its an adieu.

It's time to let go,

And to welcome the snow.

Everything chum turns glum,

My dear, it's Autumn.

~~~~

Autumn

Harry Potter And The Cursed Child - Review

noreply@blogger.com (Vyankatesh) — Sun, 10 Sep 2017 14:27:00 +0000

J. K. Rowling needs no introduction !

She is the author of the world famous Harry Potter series. The first Harry Potter book was published in 1997, and it became an instant hit with children, men and women across the world. She followed it up with 6 more books of the famous wizard, his friends and adversaries over the course of a decade. Her last book - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - was published in 2007 and drew a curtain on one of the most famous wizard stories of all times.

Since then, most Harry Potter fans wondered - What next?

What happened to Harry Potter and his friends after the grand Battle of Hogwarts? What happened to Lord Voldemort - He Who Must Not Be Named? Will Rowling come up with one more sequel about The Boy Who Lived?

The prayers of all the loyal fans was answered in 2016 , when Rowling came up with the 8th book - Harry Potter And The Cursed Child.

Harry Potter And Cursed Child

To be precise, Harry Potter And The Cursed Child is a play by Rowling, Jack Thorne, and John Tiffany. It's a sequel to the life of Harry Potter as covered in the 7 wonderful books. But since seeing the play would not have been possible for everyone, they published the manuscript of the play for everyone to enjoy Potter once again.

And boy, have they done a wonderful job !

To begin with, you usually don't read many a manuscripts. The first few chapters of the book would make reading and following the story a tad difficult. But as you get immersed in the gripping story, helped with Rowling's fluent narration, you will find yourself in cruise control mode.

The book features Harry and his wife Ginny, her brother Ron and his wife Hermione, Harry's bitter nemesis Draco Malfoy among others. The prominent roles are being played by Harry's and Draco's sons.

And how could a Harry Potter story be complete without The Dark Lord? The primary theme of the book revolves around the possibility of Lord Voldemort coming back to life. Thwarting his attempt are none other than Harry Junior ( name withheld specifically ) and his friend ( name withheld again ) ! They are helped by old hands who are adept at fighting followers of darkness.

There are several twists and turns in this two part stage play. Spells are abound and heart gasping moments are aplenty. There is love, there is hatred, there are dark moments, and there are happy endings. It doesn't have too many complicated elements and plots as seen in the last few Potter books. The book is effortlessly simple, with a rich story.

As the story progresses, the reader is intrigued by the situation and has only one thing on his/her mind - how will the future unravel? Future, they say, is hidden in the mysteries of the past. Rowling and her co authors succeed in illustrating this in style.

The book is a must read for every Harry Potter fan. And for those of you who have never laid their hands on a Potter book, you might as well start with this one !

P.S. I finished reading the book in a day. I thoroughly enjoyed the flash reading. And at the end of it, I just had one question - After all, Who is the Cursed Child?

An Invader

noreply@blogger.com (Vyankatesh) — Fri, 08 Sep 2017 20:00:00 +0000

~~~~

She sauntered up in style,

The someones held their breath.

All mortals met her eyes,

Bewitched by her intoxicating smile.

She oozed class and oomph,

Petite was the lass.

A flower in full bloom,

Time stuttered, into an impasse.

Her hash brown tresses,

Blew warmth into the wind.

Her life, without any braids,

A hundred dreams, she pinned.

She stopped at the edge,

A few hearts, fell of the ledge.

The silence roared with a zing,

This lady, a resplendent spring morning.

Her smile disarmed the men,

The ladies, green with envy.

She was someone, who everyone yenned,

Her heart, taken; she was not free.

In a moment, everything was blur,

She disappeared, before any purrs.

She slipped many a hearts away,

The coy dame, An Invader.

~~~~

P.S. This poem comes after 9 months of hibernation from the world of poetry.

When To Rob A Bank - Review

noreply@blogger.com (Vyankatesh) — Thu, 07 Sep 2017 20:00:00 +0000

It had been a while since I read a book. I started quite a few of them, never to complete any of them.

One fine day, as I was browsing through Amazon, I came across - When To Rob A Bank. It was love at first sight. The next click revealed the authors of the book - Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner (popularly known as SDL and SJD). It was their 4th work.

When To Rob A Bank

I had read their first 3 books - Freakonomics, Super Freakonomics and Think Like A Freak , and I am a keen fan of their writing. I made up my mind to read this shortly. And surprise surprise, my better half gifted this book to me a few weeks later !

Needless to say, I started reading it in the next few days, in the midst of a crunching work schedule.

Not many of us think about robbing bank, leave aside actually robbing one. Then why should we read this book?

The book is a collection of their blogs from their website. WTRB features around 100+ blogs, grouped by common themes in around 12 chapters.

The blogs have been written by the authors, and in some cases by their associates, on a wide ranging topics - right from "Why is McDonald's better than KFC?" to "Why Don't Flight Attendants Get Tipped?". The chapters in the book analyse diverse and quirky topics from an economics perspective. The surprising inferences drawn by the authors would impress you.

Some of the stories are really short. However, only a few of them will leave you really disinterested. Most of them make for short and interesting reading. The names of the chapters are themselves offbeat . Don't be surprised by "If You'e Not Cheating, You're Not Trying" and "More Sex Please, We're Economists".

An interesting chapter, written before 2008 by the authors, predicted that Barack Obama has the potential to be the President of the United States. The authors proudly proclaim this to be one of their few predictions which came true.

Overall, this is a very good book for anyone who is interested is basic economics, data analytics and quirky topics. This is must read for SJD and SDL fans.

Don't miss this one.

Our Inspirations

noreply@blogger.com (Vyankatesh) — Thu, 07 Sep 2017 14:38:00 +0000

As I walk to my desk every day, I see three posters on three different desks. The posters are as different as chalk and cheese.

Needless to say, they are "Inspirations" for the people whose desks they set alight with dreams and aspirations !

Family First

noreply@blogger.com (Vyankatesh) — Sun, 26 Mar 2017 15:43:00 +0000

Nico Rosberg was crowned the Formula 1 Champion in the year 2016.

After a grueling 11 years on the F1 circuit which would have taken him across the world, living out of a suitcase, he won the F1 championship in 2016, beating Lewis Hamilton in a close battle at end of the year. F1 fans expected him to come back to the circuit in 2017 and defend his title in style.

However, Nico had other plans in mind.

On Dec 2 2016, a month or so after winning the championship, he announced his immediate retirement from Formula 1, to be with his family.

And today, when the 2017 season got off to a cool start in Melbourne, Nico tweeted this picture of his family, happily enjoying the race from his home. This picture was uploaded by Nico on his twitter account. If not for his decision, he would be one of the guys driving in the high octane race.

Nico Rosberg With His Family

This beautiful blissful picture epitomized one thing. Family First !

Embarrassed

noreply@blogger.com (Vyankatesh) — Sun, 19 Mar 2017 15:08:00 +0000

On a calm Sunday evening, I was going for a walk with my wife. As I walked down the stairs, a lady was about to walk up with her two daughters.

Just when our paths crossed, the elder daughter called out with delight - "Papa!!"

My wife chuckled, the lady was taken aback, while Yours Truly turned around to see the young girl looking at me. Much to my shock !

Embarrassed

These are the moments when you just wish that the earth opens up and swallows you.

Happy New Year 2017

noreply@blogger.com (Vyankatesh) — Sun, 01 Jan 2017 08:09:00 +0000

Wishing everyone a very Happy New Year 2017 !

~~~~

The world may have changed,

But it still goes round.

For all that you have seen,

There's till love to be found.

Step into the year new,

Start fresh, start bright.

Open up your view,

Fly high, a fluttering kite.

The year promises to be long,

Your chances countless.

Be content, sing a song,

Fullfil those dreams, boundless.

There's lot to be done,

By you, second to none.

There's lot to win and give,

Countless dreams to relive.

With the grace of Almighty,

And your nimble strides.

You will conquer the seas,

And glow with pride.

For the year old, merci beaucoup,

For the new year, bienvenue.

Make all you dreams come true,

A Very Happy New Year To You.

~~~~

Happy New Year 2017

The Legend Of Lakshmi Prasad Review

noreply@blogger.com (Vyankatesh) — Sun, 01 Jan 2017 02:30:00 +0000

It is not often that we get to meet an author of a book. I had the opportunity to meet Twinkle Khanna - the author of "The Legend Of Lakshmi Prasad" - at Crosswords, Pune, as part of the promotional event of the book.

I had been an on and off follower of her Sunday column in The Times Of India. I found her columns to be a witty and satirical take on the goings-on in the society. When the opportunity to meet her at the social gathering presented itself; me, my wife and sister decided to tag along to meet her.

The bookstore insisted that people buy one copy of the book for Rs. 299, or a voucher of Rs. 300, for every two people entering the store ! The event turned into a money spinner for Crosswords before the author had arrived at the book store.

The Legend Of Lakshmi Prasad is a collection of 4 short stories, all of them based in India.

The Legend Of Lakshmi Prasad

The first story is about Lakshmi Prasad himself. In our fast moving world, the story presents an interesting idea about long term investments in building a long secure future for girls. The story highlights one key theme - we, often, have a lot of time at our hand to build things, if we start early !

The next one is about two sisters, both of them older than 50 years under their sun. The story explores their laid back lifestyle in suburban Mumbai, with the emphasis on their young minds.

The third story is about a young lady, Elisa, and her travails as she seeks matrimonial happiness in the complicated world of Indian matrimony. I distinctly remember Robert Galbraith's (J K Rowling) superb concluding line in the Career of Evil - “I do," said Robin in a ringing voice, looking straight into the eyes, not of her stony-faced new husband, but of the battered and bloodied man who had just sent her flowers crashing to the floor.” Twinkle Khanna's last line in this story was equally superb - "Here lies Elisa, she briefly belonged to many, but truly to herself." What a poignant finish !

The last story is about Bablu and his travails, as he pursues his aspirations of manufacturing low cost sanitary pads. He fails and he falls, again and again, until he succeeds in style. This story is the longest of the book, and underlines a critical idea - though certain ideas are considered taboo by the society, they do have the effect to transform the world !

Overall, the book makes for an interesting reading. Twinkle's writing style is fluent and effortless. The stories make a genuine impression on the readers. And they are short, small and sweet.

If you are wondering about your next reading, don't think twice about picking up The Legend Of Lakshmi Prasad.

Unsaid Lessons

noreply@blogger.com (Vyankatesh) — Sat, 24 Dec 2016 07:40:00 +0000

Life throws up interesting lessons. Often, when you are young. Real young. This young lad had a wonderful lesson about life on a chilly winter morning.

At around 8 in the morning, he was walking to the school bus stop, hand in hand with his grandmother. He waved at one of his pals, who was sitting on a bench, waiting for his school bus. His pal didn't wave him back. The lad tried waving at him again, without any results. He even gave him a shout, but to no avail.

Dejected by his unsuccessful attempts, the lad remarked to his grand mom, "He didn't wave back at me, even though I waved at him."

His grandmother replied, "Probably, he did not see you waving."

The lad added, "But I was waving at him. I waved at him twice. I even called his name !"

The grand mom, with years of experience under her belt, added "Yea. Maybe he was lost in his thoughts and he did not notice you. You can talk to him and play with him in the evening."

The lad pondered about her reply and kept on walking slowly to the bus stop.

His grand mom chuckled as she walked along. She didn't tell him was that very often when you raise a shout to people, they don't respond back to you. Because, they simply might not want to. Reciprocation is not easy.

She hoped that her the grandson would have learnt this unsaid lesson in life !

Friends Apart

All the President's Women

noreply@blogger.com (Vyankatesh) — Sat, 17 Dec 2016 07:16:00 +0000

Men, they said, ruled the world.

All the President's Women

Not anymore !

It will be worthwhile to recollect the famous words by Bob Dylan, all of 75, who won the Noble Prize in Literature this year.

In his song - The Times They Are A-Changin' , Dylan wrote

~~~~

Come gather around people

Wherever you roam

And admit that the waters

Around you have grown

And accept it that soon

You'll be drenched to the bone

And if your breath to you is worth saving

Then you better start swimming or you'll sink like a stone

For the times they are a-changing

~~~~

The President with the Young Leaders

The President of India, Pranab Mukherjee met a delegation from Young FICCI Ladies Organisation (YFLO), at Rashtrapati Bhavan, in New Delhi on December 15, 2016. Both pictures are from this meeting.

Indeed the times are changing. Women are setting the social and corporate landscape in India ablaze !

Demonitisation End State Prediction

noreply@blogger.com (Vyankatesh) — Wed, 07 Dec 2016 17:57:00 +0000

Everybody loves predictions. Be it your daily horoscope in the tabloid, the weekly horoscope in the Sunday newspaper, or the once-in-a-lifetime Demonetization initiative, we tend to eagerly gulp down everything that is predicted.

Joining the prediction party, Here I am predicting the result of the ongoing Demonetization initiative.

To set the background, the Government of India announced a massive demonetization initiative on 9th Nov 2016. The then valid Rs 500 and Rs 1000 currency notes were made illegal overnight. The janata was mandated to either deposit or exchange the currency notes till 30 Dec 2016. The exchange facility was withdrawn later (since the GOI feared massive money laundering).

On the date of the announcement, this invalidated currency amounted to Rupees 14.86 Lakh Crore.

As it is usual with such mega decisions, a slew of court cases ensued, most of which were shot down by the Supreme Court. The Attorney General Mukul Rohatgi, representing the GOI, submitted before the Supreme Court that the GOI expects Rs 11 Lakh Crore to be deposited into the banking system by 30 Dec 2016. The rest was expected to be considered as black money which wouldn't flow into the bank system.

How wrong was the gentleman ! And the GOI !!

On 7th Dec 2016, a cool 23 days before the end date of the demonetization exercise, an awesome Rs 11.5 Lakh Crore has flown through the banking system (Most of it is deposited in the banks).This has taken the GOI's calculation for a toss.

The big question which remains now is - How much money from the now illegal tender will flow through the banking system?

Well, the current state of the Demonetization exercise is as below.

The amounts of deposits have progressively increased, much to the surprise of the GOI.

Of late, I have been intrigued by graphs and economics. I surprisingly realized that real world behavior mimics the statistical models. The authors of the superb book-series Freakonomics professed one important point - there is no better experiment than a real world experiment. And Demonetization has been a bold experience !

I expect the country and the economy to behave as below till 30 Dec 2016 (the end date of demonetization).

Given the current trend, I expect approximately Rs 14.16 Lakh Crore to have flown through the banking system till 30 Dec 2016. This will mean that people have deposited almost 95% of the now illegal tender.

Adding to it, the RBI has given a window till 31 March 2016 to exchange old Rs 500 and Rs 1000 currency notes in select RBI offices. This would further increase the amount which would have been deposited or exchanged.

If this indeed happens, the GOI, the IT department and other Government agencies will have to do serious hard work to go through all the accounts which saw deposits after the demonetization and identify possible black money.

Lets watch the country closely over the next 3 weeks. Visit this blog again on 31 Dec 2016 !