My Life

BSE Sensex Data April 1979 to May 2011

2011-05-11T09:56:00.000-07:00

Download the data from https://sites.google.com/site/abhikush/data

GDP per Capita

2010-09-01T14:06:00.000-07:00

Trading Options on NIFTY

2010-03-22T11:25:00.000-07:00

I was betting on increased volatility as ATR and Nifty VIX were at low levels. Additionally, as there was no time left in March contract, I did not want to make the bet that volatility would increase in the next 5 days. In hindsight, it would have worked too.

On Friday, when Nifty was trading at 5250, I bought a strangle at 5000 & 5500 in the April contract for Rs. 4015.

However, immediately after making the trade, I realized the biggest issue. I underestimated the amount I will be charged to make the transaction (Rs. 106 on 1 leg for 1 contract through ICICI Direct). I will be paying approx 424 or 10% of my bet in transaction costs.

As trading ended on Monday, I had a profit of approx Rs. 100 but after factoring in transaction charges I am making a loss of Rs. 331.50.

I am still expecting the market volatility to increase. Nifty VIX is close to its historical lows and ATR is also at low levels. But another problem is the time decay of options. At some point I will have to make a decision to stick with my view or cut my losses.

These are conflicting objectives, if market volatility does not increase then I lose the time value of my options and they expire worthless. So, I should be selling them as soon as possible. However, if I sell them too soon (at a loss) then I lose if the market volatility increases (as is my view).

After reading so much theory on options in my risk management class, I must say the practical aspects of trading are totally different. Theory says if you expect volatility to increase buy straddles (lower risk but more expensive) or strangles (higher risk but cheaper). Practically, there are so many things to think about, transaction charges, time value etc.

I think Rs. 4,015 is a small price to pay for this education :)

State of Internet

2010-03-02T09:30:00.000-08:00

JESS3 / The State of The Internet from Jesse Thomas on Vimeo.

Via BigPicture

US Corporate Bonds Spread

2010-02-26T00:06:00.000-08:00

Click on the graph for bigger size

TED spread (calculated as the 3 Month LIBOR rate minus the 3 Month T Bill rate) has historically averaged between 30 bps to 50 bps. In 2008 they reached as high as 465 bps but the latest reading is below 20 bps.

BBB – AAA spread (99bps) is back to its historical average from a high of 526 bps. AAA – Tbill and BBB – Tbill are back to 2001 – 2004 levels (520 and 619 bps). Given that Federal Fund rate is at 0% whereas between 2001 to 20004 it varied from 100 bps to 225 bps.

All this just confirms that the credit market is back to pre-crises level.