Well either it was too hot or their numbers just didn’t cut it yet, but a few hundred red shirts marching along selected locations in Bangkok called it a day after the widely announced start of the government’s end this Friday, March 12th. Was day 1 just a teaser?

Or has the number of protesters fallen way short of expectation? “They expected thousands at each gathering point,” tweeted The Nation’s Tulsathit Taptim, “but protest leaders only managed to gather hundreds at each spot,” said his government intelligence source.

Much too early to call it a bust. They gave a foretaste of what is possible. The reds spread. Still, not enough funds from Dubai? If we’d known this Bangkok wouldn’t have had to cancel so many events. But now all hopes and fears have been postponed to Sunday, and no one knows how many red shirts will make use of the army’s park-and-ride service with bus transport.

That’s right, upcountry pick-up trucks are banned from Bangkok’s streets, but the army nevertheless selflessly ferries the ones it has to contain from the suburbs to the protest areas. You’re tempted to say that’s no honorable way to topple a government. But then again, this is the labyrinthine Thainess in action.

Apart from a Pathum Thani incident doomsday took off peaceful – as a real letdown if you’re a red shirt supporter. Obviously the reds didn’t get the numbers they were hoping for. Support in Bangkok is limited to say the least. But rest assured, assure the reds, Saturday and Sunday shall turn Bangkok into the northern provinces.

Again, the government will transport provincial reds from Bangkok’s suburbs to the downtown protest areas. Why should they dig their own grave? Overly optimistic that the red shirts can’t even amass a hundred thousand Thaksinists?

No reason to be optimistic yet, no difference if you’re red, yellow, white or colorless. If the reds are true to their word, they won’t even need fifty thousand, but a few thousand dedicated agitators. Or much ado about nothing?

Much too early to say. The reds lose all credibility if their final battle just goes poof. Confusion is part of their strategy. Some leaders say the really will go on as long as it takes, others say for a few days, some stick to the three-day schedule.

First day over, no questions answered, back to square one. But it’s safe to say that this was not the opening day the reds were hoping for.

It is also safe to say that the security forces stand behind the authorities. Called by a red leader the “watermelon army,” because “inside red,” ideological loyalty remains weaker than hierarchical subordination.

This being Thailand though, everything can change in no time at all, and the reds would be a real disappointment if they don’t even have one ace up their sleeve. This is no time to mock the reds. Thousands are on the way to Bangkok. This is no time for schadenfreude.

We’re all aware their motives and grievances are real. Question remains how to fight for them.

Thailand’s political drama goes on as long as disenfranchisement is not addressed.

Stay tuned.

Key will be how quickly they can move people across town.

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Can’t count the cancellations of events for this weekend anymore. Everyone’s postponing. Parties, receptions, trips, they have to wait. The Thai capital is in the grip of the red shirts without them yet being here. Parts of Bangkok will be deserted, others rather not. Speculation is the government will issue a curfew from Friday onwards, but that would show that they don’t have the ability to control the masses.

The red protest is no longer a protest. It’s a mobilization of hope for some, victory seems near, of utter discomfort for others. Maybe we have never seen as many reds united, but they’re not here to make new friends. Make no mistake. This is no protest per se. The Shinawatras have fled the country already – flown out for business as papa Thaksin’s said on Twitter -, and Newin’s in London to see his kids.

Thaksin’s foot soldiers – how many?! – are marching, some of them unsure and scared themselves, while many people’s color of the day is no longer red or yellow, but white, the color of peace, purity and cleanness – illusory concepts in current Thailand. There is so much rumor, speculation and uncertainty all around, nobody has a clue what’s going on and what will happen. If this confusion is an intention of the red shirts, then well done, you won your first battle.

Seems like the army is moving heavy gear from Kanchanaburi towards Bangkok, while the kingdom’s newspapers on Tuesday published a photo (see the Bangkok Post’s below) whose significance only Thais can truly feel and understand: Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva not only briefing His Majesty the King, but with the prime minister at the same head height as the king. A very clear message.

What the Post didn’t print:

Here’s the full video:

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This is a blog. This is no newspaper. This site does not pretend to know the truth. And OMG it’s wrong so often. This site was born with the aim of sharing information, encouraging debate and enhancing dialog on Thai matters. This site does not know more than anyone else nor does it pretend to know better. Reading not only anti-yellow and pro-red stuff lately? Well hopefully so.

It’s all an opinion. This site is not written by martyrs and if you’re looking for ideological reactionary stuff you may find it in here or not. If you’re afraid Thai politics are a clear-cut game, if you want to cheer one party and denounce the other, then good night and please apply for the Nobel Prize in Physics as you just inverted basic laws of not only Thai nature.

This site may also criticize the truthful and praise the dishonest. This site may surprise and offend and offers left and right and center and way out-of-line news sources in its News Feed. Because this site trusts the reader is old enough to read and judge content. But guess what, this site is not unbiased. Red may look promising. Depending on the contextual light it looks unnatural the very next second.

I have to defend the reds just because of what again?They have a less than credible prime minister in waiting with more issues than only two difficult sons. And a Khun Jaran publicly defending the misery of a civil war. It’s time for Thailand to move on, but the situation is not that dire to call for a revolution. Look around. Be honest to yourself. People upcountry don’t have a harsher life than before under Thaksin. And I’m not going to bleed for anyone’s hero or demagogue for that. Thais being their own worst enemy, there’s only so much you as a foreigner can do.

Yes, his ouster was wrong. That doesn’t legitimate his abuses. Just don’t fool yourself. The current Thai resistance is much more about Thaksin than the instrumentalized poor. I share his vision, but not his means to an end. And you seriously think middle class life in Bangkok is sugar and honey? Bangkok is Isaan in a way.

Today’s main political force is envy. Or as a blogger says:

“Time for street revolutions have passed.”

What this site doesn’t want to be is to be arrogant. If you can live with an open mind, you’re most welcome. If you always know what you want to read before you read it, if you know exactly what you want to hear and if you’re absolutely sure what is right and what is wrong, then, well then this is a dreadful place for you. And no, bloggers are no machines and I’m no chronicler on alert 24/7. The blog’s a child of love and hate. And there’s the life. Yes, there are more important things to do sometimes.

Views expressed in here do not necessarily reflect the views of a majority or minority. If you’re running low on tolerance and can’t handle a maverick take please block this site in your browser for your own good. Your attacks are most welcome, as long as they’re not predictable. Good if you can stand the cold and the heat. And no, this site doesn’t make big money. With some luck it pays for the beer. Wanna swap?

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Beyond reasonable doubts: Thaksin’s “Judgment Day” has become another unforgettable event in the Thai political history. After weeks of being second guessed by academics and political pundits, nine judges of the Supreme Court spent almost eight hours reading their historical verdict which was broadcasted nationwide.

Thaksin was found guilty on all five cases for hiding his family shareholdings behind onshore and offshore nominees during his premiership, for conflict of interest, for abusing his power as head of the government, and for becoming unusually rich as the result of ruthless changes in policies, laws and regulations to benefit his family businesses.

The court ruled that the excess amount of THB 46 billion (out of THB 76 billion that had been frozen since 2006) was to be confiscated by the state. The remaining THB 30 billion would be returned after deduction of related income taxes, fines and other charges due.

By Vongthip Chumpani*

Sore losers! In the weeks before and after the “Judgment Day” on 26/2/10, there were an avalanche of abusive threats and a series of sinister warnings against PM Abhisit, key cabinet ministers, judges and their family members. Grenades were thrown at bank premises and a blacklist of 53 prominent people, who have spoken openly against the Thaksin regime, was made public.

Meanwhile, the majority of Thai citizens could not help feeling disturbed, harassed, threatened or even frightened by the daily verbal attacks from the pro-Thaksin camp. Many have started to call on the government to launch a nationwide campaign to clarify the court’s ruling in simple language so that it could be easily understood by gullible rural folks who planned to join the red shirts massive demonstration in Bangkok from 12-14/3/10.

The rule of law

While the red shirts were trooping all over the country in preparation for their one-million-protesters D-Day, the Abhisit government went ahead with the necessary steps to move the confiscated THB 46 billion into the state’s coffer. Related actions have also been taken by various government entities and the anti-Thaksin groups to bring civil and criminal charges against those who were involved in the five cases that had purportedly caused some THB 100 billion of damage to the state.

Meanwhile PM Abhisit continued to walk the tight rope, trying to keep the public cool and calm while making sure national security would not be compromised in the worst case scenario. In his weekly Sunday TV program, PM Abhisit held impromptu Q&A sessions with TV anchors and radio news commentators on current state of affairs, trying to reach out to both the mass media and the public to help the government promote peace and prevent violence.

“Guilty”

While Thaksin & Co. were lamenting the loss of his fortune, hundreds of thousands of people were feeling quietly vindicated and thankful that their stubborn efforts and long endurance had not been in vain. For two solid years they had demonstrated bravely and selflessly against all odds to get rid of Thaksin’s parliamentary dictatorship and his corrupt regime. These honest-to-goodness citizens had come out day after day to march, to stand, to sit and even to sleep on the streets in the scorching sun and pouring rain, against deadly teargas and hails of M79 grenades.

They therefore could not help but relish every moment of the eight hours that the Supreme Court took to spell out Thaksin’s dubious crimes in minute legal details before pronouncing him guilty of policy corruption and for creating unusual wealth at the expense of national interest. It was however somewhat of a let-down for them when only half of the THB 76 billion was confiscated. They believed that the actual damage caused by Thaksin to the country has been far greater than could be expressed in any monetary term.

More disturbing news

During the first week of 2/10, fully armed PM Hun Sen of Cambodia created quite a stir when he made a high profiled visit to Khao Phra Viharn where he was courteously welcomed by a Thai military contingent. At the border, he gave another abusive speech against the Thai PM, after he was asked to unarm if he wished to also visit Viharn Muentaprom on the Thai territory. When the GT200 bomb detector scandal broke, PM Abhisit gave a strong warning against their faulty and ineffective use, much to the embarrassment of the Thai military who stood firm about using this highly questionable (and expensive) instrument in the deep south.

Another scandal was triggered by a retired deputy secretary general when he spoke publicly about the blatant (and pricy) sale of appointment to key positions in the ministry of interior. This is very much along the same line as at the police department, where the appointment of their chief has yet to materialize! Meanwhile a rumor that the ministry of commerce would be dumping 2 million tons of rice from their stock pile, has sent rice prices tumbling, causing an unexpected and most untimely protest against PM Abhisit’s rice insurance program

Struggling to move ahead

Fortunately for the government, the economy was turning increasingly more positive, with tax collections well above the target. The cost of living and housing subsidy programs were scaled down or stopped to reflect the positive change in circumstances. The cabinet also approved the new master plan for mass transit systems, with two additional lines (pink and orange) and an extension of the airport link to Don Mueang Airport.

From now on, the Abhisit government would have to track the farm sector more closely again now that the hot season has arrived earlier than normal, with soaring temperatures and fast dwindling water supply especially in the northeast where even the mighty Mekong River seemed to be running dry. Mindful of the importance of FDI to carry on the economic growth momentum, PM Abhisit inaugurated the “One Start, One Stop” service center, set up specifically to assist foreign investors and facilitate their dealings with the Thai bureaucratic system.

More beautiful figures

In 1/10, private investment grew yoy for the eight consecutive months. Industrial capacity utilization was at 68%. Export increased by 31% yoy to USD 31.6 billion. Import shot up 50% yoy to USD 31.0 billion. Trade balance, current account balance and balance of payments were all in the black at USD 591 million, USD 1,997 million and USD 4, 966 million respectively. International reserves increased to USD 142.4 billion.

Consumer price index was 4.1% with core inflation of 0.5%. Unemployment went down to 0.9%. Improved consumer confidence fueled further private consumption. Bank lending grew 3% yoy, with interest rates remaining unchanged. The THB ended the month on a strong uptrend at THB 33.04/USD. The SET closed at 721 in spite of the on-going political problems.

It’s the economy, stupid!

In 2/10 the Thai economy has once again proved to be resilient and much stronger than expected. The actual figures of 4Q09 GDP (+5.7%) and for the whole of 09 (-2.3%) were most welcomed news. Business confidence index was also up in 1/10, as the legal impasse at Maptaphut has made some headway. This year, tourist arrivals were expected to reach 15.5 million.

Thailand’s GDP rate has been revised upward to 4.5% and as high as 5%-6% by the IMF and some international banks. Foreign capital inflow has been steady. Foreign investors seemed to have got used to Thailand’s political bickering and could now understand that the country needed more time to clean up the political mess because of the people’s fatalistic attitude, compromising nature and non-confrontation culture.

Let it be known

Most people believed the verdict of 26/2/10 would go down in history as an important milestone on Thailand’s long and rough road towards full democracy and the rule of law. This historical case did not only punish the former prime minister but also send out a strong message that the people of Thailand have wised up to those sinister political crimes and that they would no longer tolerate corrupt practices among politicians and government officials.

Most academics and political pundits have come to accept the fact that events of the last few years have changed the dynamics of this country forever. The Thai society would have to make further sacrifices in order to narrow the disparity between the haves and the have-nots, between the urban and the rural population. The government would have to be truly and sincerely mindful of the needs, expectations and aspirations of the majority of the voters.

Politicians and bureaucrats could no longer collude blatantly to take the country for a ride while enriching themselves from their dark and dubious schemes. Most believed Thailand still has a long way to go before we could restore the kind of peace and harmony that we have taken for granted in the last six decades!

* Vongthip Chumpani is an advisor to and former president of Bangkok Bank and a former advisor to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. All views and opinions expressed herein are entirely from her own personal observations.

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Doomsday is the word of the day again with the reds’ million-man march in Bangkok approaching on March 14th. Well, they’re lucky if they get a 100,000 people, a seasoned observer told aB.come after the FCCT’s recent press conference of the red shirts’ United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship UDD.

Red leader Jaran Ditthapichai assured us they’ll get half a million or more people from mainly the north and northeast, assuming their pick-up trucks get gas – didn’t you hear the rumor about a government-sponsored closure of gas stations? And assuming they can pass security checkpoints.

That’s right, the reds claim that the government instructed bus companies to not transport red shirts to Bangkok. With tens of thousands of red shirts and their thousands of pick-ups soon stretching all the way from Sanam Luang to Rama V expect some major traffic nuisance. Well the red shirts are giving the prime minister a choice. Dissolve the house. Or suppress us.

Couldn’t count anymore how often Khun Jaran (picture below) mentioned the “or suppress us.” But questions by the Asia Times’ Shawn Crispin made him even go a step further. Couldn’t count how often “civil war” got mentioned. Civil war as a possibility. But the red shirts would be innocent.

UDD spokesman Sean Boonpracong gave the whole event an air of righteousness. Said after the coup in 2006 there was death silence with girls in camouflage dresses dancing and flowers on tanks, but there was silence while Thaksin got demonized and the aristocracy succeeded in maintaining the privileges of ancient times.

Some four months later Thaksin became part of “our democratic movement,” Sean said. Crowds got bigger – until the reds’ “international reputation took a beating after the Pattaya and Bangkok incidents” last April. But they’ve learned from the past, we were told. Since then all protests were peaceful and yes, the “government wants to paint us as a violent mob, but the worst will not materialize.”

That was Sean, a smooth, a good talker. I’m not debating the intelligence of Jaran Ditthapichai, but he didn’t make everyone feel comfortable in there as Sean did. Intentionally. I don’t mind Khun Jaran meeting the other night with the October 14th Generation, with “leftists, former guerillas, communists,” said Jaran. “They think there will be violence,” he smiled. “I tried to convince them, but they didn’t believe me.”

Well Khun Jaran, after listening to you for quite some time I don’t really believe you as well. And this is why:

According to you the red shirts from all over the country will start entering Bangkok after nationwide rallies on March 10th. On the 13th every road leading to Bangkok will be turned into a caravan of reds. Bangkok’s middle class will love it.

They’ll not welcome you with open arms. Not debating here about the rights and wrongs of the current administration, but I think the patience this time is very limited and not much is needed until Bangkokians have had it.

UDD spokesman Sean (picture below) assured “we will structure our rally strictly. No weapons.” Regional group leaders will control their own people. If something happens, people will surround that something happing.

But what realistic objectives are the reds fighting for?

“Our aim is very small,” smiled Jaran. “We force Abhisit to dissolve parliament. We need a big demonsration to achieve this small aim. Our strategy is to give him a choice, yes you heard of the Theory of Choice. Almost a 100% of people don’t believe he’ll give in. But he has to choose. Suppression of the red shirts. Or dissolve parliament.”

Well I’m sure among the nearly a 100% of people who think the government will not give in. Jaran: “I believe that Abhisit will dissolve parliament. He’ll see the biggest demonstration in Thai history.”

How glad I was that a feisty Bangkok Post reporter followed up with this question:

“Are you copying the yellow shirts with pressure tactics? And you think this is democracy? What’s your ideology. And why you always mention members are former communists?”

By then Dr. Weng Tojirakarn (picture below) had joined the panel, the doctor who once himself lived in the jungle and opened a clinic for the poor. Seeing him there actually I thought of a Sondhi Limthongkul look-alike. And as fervent was his rhetoric:

“The past is the past. We want democracy under the king. Whoever is against this is not UDD. But in economics and politics the bureaucratic regime drags Thailand back. We have to overthrow the bureaucratic system. By nonviolent means, for the rule of law, for the good of the people and the return of the 1997 constitution.”

Overthrow of the bureaucratic regime.

Well then, in a few days “we will be all over Thailand,” smiled Jaran. “An incredible logistical challenge for us,” assured Sean.

“Some of you are frightened,” Jaran went on. “Bangkok traffic will be paralyzed. I’m sorry to say that.”

We learn that they distanced themselves from Seh Daeng, Pallop Pinmanee and the likes. They want to prevent another Songkran 2009. “No one wants to die for democracy,” we learn. “We’re back using peaceful methods again. So what will happen these next weeks? Some incidents we cannot control.”

Jaran: “If we would adopt violent means, we would only need some 20,000 well-trained people. But because we adopt peaceful means we need 500-600,000 people.”

Dr. Weng: “It’s the nonviolent way. Last time’s violence was a plot of the military and bureaucratic regime. We were rather stupid fools for what happened at the interior ministry. We learned a lot.”

Still, if “Abhisit suppresses us, maybe there will be civil war,” Jaran said smilingly. “Nobody knows. If the red shirts get suppressed or the demonstration is dissolved, no one knows what will happen.”

They’ll stop if they cannot go ahead, Jaran assured. “But we will try. We already let Abhisit run the country for too long. We must kick this government out.” No coup, no revolution. “Just dissolve the parliament. We force him to choose.”

The panel seemed confident enough that their actions are carried by popular support. Bangkok’s yellow middle class is joining them, we learn, and “more than 70% of soldiers and 80% of the police all over Thailand are red. We will neutralize them,” said Jaran.

Well, if that’s what the Thai people want I probably lost touch with what’s going on. “I’d like to say we will not declare civil war,” Jaran concluded. “The government will if they suppress us violently.”

The reds, our sacrificial lambs.

What a prospect.

And what strategy again?

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Yes, some people here are very upset. Another shit tosser has been arrested. Human waste attacks against our dear ruling Democrats are on the rise. They’re a distinctively Thai way of saying: “Hey, you’re shit.”

Human feces as a political statement is nothing new in Thai politics. Excrement tossers hit the headlines all the time in times of political divide. Sometimes there are groups of them. The practice is as old as Thai politics.

But there is much more to the quirky ways and means of opposition politics, of uniquely Thai ways to show utter disgust. Yes, creative cursing can be an act of self-defence.

Here are a few mean proven tactics, I’m sure there are many more:

• Vulgar Political Discourse: Ask your female friends to put your enemy’s photos or name under their crotch and they shall curse your enemy three times. As practiced by the PAD. They cursed Thaksin. Didn’t it work.
• Strategic Sanitary Pads: That’s right, the PAD again fought off Thaksin’s evil spirits with used sanitary napkins from menstruating women. Wanna bet it works.
• Call Down a Curse: As recently demonstrated by Cambodia’s prime minister Hun Sen, putting a curse on our dear PM: “If you don’t tell the truth about Thai troops invading Cambodia, let magic objects break your neck, may you be shot, be hit by a car, may you be shocked by electricity or (may you be shot) by misfired guns.”
• Black Magic Politics: Write the names of your foes down on paper. Burned to ashes the black magic puts a curse of death and destruction on them.
• Electronic Ghost Repeller: If nothing else works, go Thai-tech. In case you didn’t know, ghosts and evil spirits usually emit a weak natural electric field.

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