That’s not the red shirt, that’s the red short rally. Maybe I’ll go out on a limb – hey yes I had wrongly called the yellow protest a day, right before those maniacs invaded Suvarnabhumi. But looks like the Million Man March utterly failed. The rather grotesque peaceful bloodletting aside – ah, and the M79 grenade attack -, Thaksin’s red marchers may tire themselves out within a short time. The metaphor of the “blood promise” as an exit strategy? We were also promised regime change, the end of the “junta,” but their numbers just don’t add up. Now it’s all about not looking weak and saving face.

Somehow one can feel but pity for Thaksin. The fugitive’s now even more isolated. His so dedicated foot soldiers failed. The so far biggest show of force on Sunday with many sightseers and curious onlookers on Rajdamnoen was a sweet Pyrrhic victory before reality set in on Monday morning when the dancing and chanting solidarity started marching. Many of them knowing, this march actually leads to nowhere. They barely reached the 11th Infantry Regiment, the ultimatum passed – now the search for blood started. And many protesters, already packed, simply went home.

No one treats the potential threat of violence instigated by a small red core faction or a third party lightly. But so far most reds were peace in person. They even waited for traffic lights on their travels in the city. Then why does their March to Democracy seem to fizzle out that early? Or – to be politically correct – why do they resort to a “tactical retreat”? Well first of all, it’s a monumental challenge to jolly along tens of thousands of people. It’s hot, it’s dirty, with no quick results to be expected … But if the yellows can do it, why not the reds? Even though the yellows’ street numbers were lower, they had a tightly organized support structure, they were “local,” always a step ahead of the government – and didn’t shy away from real escalation. Raising the stakes remains the reds’ only way out to achieve something.

The red leadership seems less malign, while the government didn’t yet blink for a second and played a cool steady waiting game by allowing the masses to protest, but according to the government’s terms that is. The red protesters walked into the trap. What so far looks like a sea of peaceful revolutionaries is in truth something of a gladiator show, tightly controlled, great for pictures, with only one outcome. This is by no means the reds’ deathblow. But they’re afraid to make mistakes. Their show of hesitation so far doesn’t strengthen them, but the government, while the Bangkokian rumor mill spins: the protest leaders are supposed to deliver, but broke. One rumor goes that Thaksin finances the U.K. education of red leader Veera Musikapong’s children. What do I know, but money is a factor.

Said CNN’s Dan Rivers in a live report:

“It’s unclear how many of the protesters are genuinely angry and want change – and how many are paid to be there.”

Read a tweet:

“There is no cash and the in-country MPs won’t put their hands in their own pockets. Game over.”

And don’t forget the economy. Indices pointing down would have given the reds the support from undecided Bangkokians, but by not joining the protest in masses they spoke clearly. Bangkok is not interested in regime change when things start looking better, and one can only guess why only a 100,000 people from the northern and northeastern rural areas made it to the capital. The red leadership had made the calculations. We were promised at least half a million. Sure, life is difficult in the provinces, but maybe not that miserable?

Continued recovery, strong demand for condos and Thai commodities and agricultural products speak in favor of the government. Life in the red north and northeast, to be honest, is not extremely bad under the current regime. Living conditions have not fallen extremely since Abhisit’s rise to power. It’s a cyclic thing, and in part because Thaksin’s policies have since been upheld, even though under different names in different packages. But there’s hardly more suffer and pain than before. Suffer and pain would drive the masses. It was not to be.

In truth the protest boils down to an ideological one, or to the fate of one single man. Yes, we all want democracy and the end of double standards, but that’s how politics are played in Thailand. It’s this elite or that elite. Analyzing the relatively meager red show of force can tell us this: Yes, the red shirt movement is here to stay and press for change. They got honorable important goals, but have easily outwitted tactics, a not perfect timing combined with the lack of a clear strategy to go on no matter what – and Thailand is too peaceful and calm at the moment to really stir up the masses. Bangkok went on as usual, ignoring the protest once it started.

Yes, after all the promises a red protest was behind time. All this protest does though – given there’s no escalation ahead – seems to strengthen the government. The Abhisit regime didn’t harm a fly so far during the protest, the red marchers were well protected so to say. City staff even cleaned up their garbage and waste left behind around Royal Plaza and after they left the 11th Infantry Regiment. To Bangkokians finally the reds don’t look like a solution, they’re rather – sad to say – a nuisance. No citizens cheering and waving along the roads.

Fixing the real problems, Abhisit said in an address before the noon ultimatum passed, takes more than that noon ultimatum.

The reds may march on. But with no clear strategy and deep pockets they won’t be taken seriously, that day, when Thais are heading to the polls.

Last but not least: What a miscalculation, that blood campaign. Tweeted BangkokPundit:

For reds blood gimmick, they should do donation + gimmick. Red Cross probably can’t process all the blood, but some would be beneficial.

The Thai Red Cross won’t help red shirt protesters in blood donation procedures, we learn, and warns improper practice can cause paralysis and/or infection.

That’s potentially a lot of human lives wasted. Says something about a dark mindset. Guess who said this:

“Only here do they suck blood of people fighting for them. Go suck your parents’ blood instead.”

That’s right, Seh Daeng. Yes maybe he’s not that crazy after all.

No strategy, not united. The reds are not winning hearts by going after their own blood.

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Dear Dan, I hope you don’t take this the wrong way but I have to say that I have been a little disconcerted by aB.com’s rather strident alarmism over the past few days. Of course, you are entitled to your own opinion, which I respect, but I would ask you to consider this possibility. Their public statements notwithstanding, the reds have no real interest in engaging in large-scale violence and property destruction. What they are trying to do is to: 1) Show that Abhisit cannot govern; and 2) Perhaps bait the government into cracking down violently. At the very worst, that is, they are trying to find a way to portray themselves as the victims of violence, as opposed to engaging in violence themselves. You might argue that this is a very cynical strategy and I would definitely agree with that. Alas, that’s how the game is played in Thailand.

However, I hope you would entertain the possibility that the only party that is actually interested in the reds turning violent is the government – in large part because that will delegitimize the red shirts and provide the excuse to repress them. As such, I think it’s at best naive and at worst disingenuous to blame the red shirts alone for the climate of fear that envelops Bangkok. We have The Nation for that, anyway. A particularly good example of this is the fact that the government now appears to be ready to impose a state of emergency, which in essence suspends all civil liberties, in the face of what so far has been an entirely peaceful demonstration (with the exception of a one-on-one scuffle in Pathum Thani).

Do they have any reasons for doing so, other than to scare the public to death? After all, the behavior of the red shirts so far has not really squared with the government’s propaganda, so that’s apparently all they have left aside from instigating some violence themselves (that itself is, in my view, forthcoming). Given the track record of military governments and military-backed governments in Thailand, are you sure you want to give them this much benefit of the doubt? Much like the reds, these people are also playing a very cynical game.

As you know, much like you I have deep misgivings about the reds and, especially, Thaksin. But I am also wondering whether you may have been a little too quick to blame them for creating a situation that the government is at the very least co-responsible for. I am only saying this because I respect your work and, perhaps more importantly, because blogs like yours have been, over the past few years, the place where one can find honest coverage of the events considering the sad state of the Thai media. And, unless you are trying to prove to someone that you pose no danger “to the security of the kingdom,” there is hardly any benefit in parroting The Nation’s intellectually dishonest coverage. That, by the way, includes that propagandist and rumor-monger that is Tulsie, to whom you have apparently turned over a portion of your site.

Again, I hope you don’t take this the wrong way, in the sense that I didn’t write this to attack you or criticize you, but only to invite you to consider alternatives to the viewpoint you have put forth. All the best,

Federico Ferrara, Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Singapore.

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Well either it was too hot or their numbers just didn’t cut it yet, but a few hundred red shirts marching along selected locations in Bangkok called it a day after the widely announced start of the government’s end this Friday, March 12th. Was day 1 just a teaser?

Or has the number of protesters fallen way short of expectation? “They expected thousands at each gathering point,” tweeted The Nation’s Tulsathit Taptim, “but protest leaders only managed to gather hundreds at each spot,” said his government intelligence source.

Much too early to call it a bust. They gave a foretaste of what is possible. The reds spread. Still, not enough funds from Dubai? If we’d known this Bangkok wouldn’t have had to cancel so many events. But now all hopes and fears have been postponed to Sunday, and no one knows how many red shirts will make use of the army’s park-and-ride service with bus transport.

That’s right, upcountry pick-up trucks are banned from Bangkok’s streets, but the army nevertheless selflessly ferries the ones it has to contain from the suburbs to the protest areas. You’re tempted to say that’s no honorable way to topple a government. But then again, this is the labyrinthine Thainess in action.

Apart from a Pathum Thani incident doomsday took off peaceful – as a real letdown if you’re a red shirt supporter. Obviously the reds didn’t get the numbers they were hoping for. Support in Bangkok is limited to say the least. But rest assured, assure the reds, Saturday and Sunday shall turn Bangkok into the northern provinces.

Again, the government will transport provincial reds from Bangkok’s suburbs to the downtown protest areas. Why should they dig their own grave? Overly optimistic that the red shirts can’t even amass a hundred thousand Thaksinists?

No reason to be optimistic yet, no difference if you’re red, yellow, white or colorless. If the reds are true to their word, they won’t even need fifty thousand, but a few thousand dedicated agitators. Or much ado about nothing?

Much too early to say. The reds lose all credibility if their final battle just goes poof. Confusion is part of their strategy. Some leaders say the really will go on as long as it takes, others say for a few days, some stick to the three-day schedule.

First day over, no questions answered, back to square one. But it’s safe to say that this was not the opening day the reds were hoping for.

It is also safe to say that the security forces stand behind the authorities. Called by a red leader the “watermelon army,” because “inside red,” ideological loyalty remains weaker than hierarchical subordination.

This being Thailand though, everything can change in no time at all, and the reds would be a real disappointment if they don’t even have one ace up their sleeve. This is no time to mock the reds. Thousands are on the way to Bangkok. This is no time for schadenfreude.

We’re all aware their motives and grievances are real. Question remains how to fight for them.

Thailand’s political drama goes on as long as disenfranchisement is not addressed.

Stay tuned.

Key will be how quickly they can move people across town.

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Can’t count the cancellations of events for this weekend anymore. Everyone’s postponing. Parties, receptions, trips, they have to wait. The Thai capital is in the grip of the red shirts without them yet being here. Parts of Bangkok will be deserted, others rather not. Speculation is the government will issue a curfew from Friday onwards, but that would show that they don’t have the ability to control the masses.

The red protest is no longer a protest. It’s a mobilization of hope for some, victory seems near, of utter discomfort for others. Maybe we have never seen as many reds united, but they’re not here to make new friends. Make no mistake. This is no protest per se. The Shinawatras have fled the country already – flown out for business as papa Thaksin’s said on Twitter -, and Newin’s in London to see his kids.

Thaksin’s foot soldiers – how many?! – are marching, some of them unsure and scared themselves, while many people’s color of the day is no longer red or yellow, but white, the color of peace, purity and cleanness – illusory concepts in current Thailand. There is so much rumor, speculation and uncertainty all around, nobody has a clue what’s going on and what will happen. If this confusion is an intention of the red shirts, then well done, you won your first battle.

Seems like the army is moving heavy gear from Kanchanaburi towards Bangkok, while the kingdom’s newspapers on Tuesday published a photo (see the Bangkok Post’s below) whose significance only Thais can truly feel and understand: Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva not only briefing His Majesty the King, but with the prime minister at the same head height as the king. A very clear message.

What the Post didn’t print:

Here’s the full video:

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This is a blog. This is no newspaper. This site does not pretend to know the truth. And OMG it’s wrong so often. This site was born with the aim of sharing information, encouraging debate and enhancing dialog on Thai matters. This site does not know more than anyone else nor does it pretend to know better. Reading not only anti-yellow and pro-red stuff lately? Well hopefully so.

It’s all an opinion. This site is not written by martyrs and if you’re looking for ideological reactionary stuff you may find it in here or not. If you’re afraid Thai politics are a clear-cut game, if you want to cheer one party and denounce the other, then good night and please apply for the Nobel Prize in Physics as you just inverted basic laws of not only Thai nature.

This site may also criticize the truthful and praise the dishonest. This site may surprise and offend and offers left and right and center and way out-of-line news sources in its News Feed. Because this site trusts the reader is old enough to read and judge content. But guess what, this site is not unbiased. Red may look promising. Depending on the contextual light it looks unnatural the very next second.

I have to defend the reds just because of what again?They have a less than credible prime minister in waiting with more issues than only two difficult sons. And a Khun Jaran publicly defending the misery of a civil war. It’s time for Thailand to move on, but the situation is not that dire to call for a revolution. Look around. Be honest to yourself. People upcountry don’t have a harsher life than before under Thaksin. And I’m not going to bleed for anyone’s hero or demagogue for that. Thais being their own worst enemy, there’s only so much you as a foreigner can do.

Yes, his ouster was wrong. That doesn’t legitimate his abuses. Just don’t fool yourself. The current Thai resistance is much more about Thaksin than the instrumentalized poor. I share his vision, but not his means to an end. And you seriously think middle class life in Bangkok is sugar and honey? Bangkok is Isaan in a way.

Today’s main political force is envy. Or as a blogger says:

“Time for street revolutions have passed.”

What this site doesn’t want to be is to be arrogant. If you can live with an open mind, you’re most welcome. If you always know what you want to read before you read it, if you know exactly what you want to hear and if you’re absolutely sure what is right and what is wrong, then, well then this is a dreadful place for you. And no, bloggers are no machines and I’m no chronicler on alert 24/7. The blog’s a child of love and hate. And there’s the life. Yes, there are more important things to do sometimes.

Views expressed in here do not necessarily reflect the views of a majority or minority. If you’re running low on tolerance and can’t handle a maverick take please block this site in your browser for your own good. Your attacks are most welcome, as long as they’re not predictable. Good if you can stand the cold and the heat. And no, this site doesn’t make big money. With some luck it pays for the beer. Wanna swap?

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Beyond reasonable doubts: Thaksin’s “Judgment Day” has become another unforgettable event in the Thai political history. After weeks of being second guessed by academics and political pundits, nine judges of the Supreme Court spent almost eight hours reading their historical verdict which was broadcasted nationwide.

Thaksin was found guilty on all five cases for hiding his family shareholdings behind onshore and offshore nominees during his premiership, for conflict of interest, for abusing his power as head of the government, and for becoming unusually rich as the result of ruthless changes in policies, laws and regulations to benefit his family businesses.

The court ruled that the excess amount of THB 46 billion (out of THB 76 billion that had been frozen since 2006) was to be confiscated by the state. The remaining THB 30 billion would be returned after deduction of related income taxes, fines and other charges due.

By Vongthip Chumpani*

Sore losers! In the weeks before and after the “Judgment Day” on 26/2/10, there were an avalanche of abusive threats and a series of sinister warnings against PM Abhisit, key cabinet ministers, judges and their family members. Grenades were thrown at bank premises and a blacklist of 53 prominent people, who have spoken openly against the Thaksin regime, was made public.

Meanwhile, the majority of Thai citizens could not help feeling disturbed, harassed, threatened or even frightened by the daily verbal attacks from the pro-Thaksin camp. Many have started to call on the government to launch a nationwide campaign to clarify the court’s ruling in simple language so that it could be easily understood by gullible rural folks who planned to join the red shirts massive demonstration in Bangkok from 12-14/3/10.

The rule of law

While the red shirts were trooping all over the country in preparation for their one-million-protesters D-Day, the Abhisit government went ahead with the necessary steps to move the confiscated THB 46 billion into the state’s coffer. Related actions have also been taken by various government entities and the anti-Thaksin groups to bring civil and criminal charges against those who were involved in the five cases that had purportedly caused some THB 100 billion of damage to the state.

Meanwhile PM Abhisit continued to walk the tight rope, trying to keep the public cool and calm while making sure national security would not be compromised in the worst case scenario. In his weekly Sunday TV program, PM Abhisit held impromptu Q&A sessions with TV anchors and radio news commentators on current state of affairs, trying to reach out to both the mass media and the public to help the government promote peace and prevent violence.

“Guilty”

While Thaksin & Co. were lamenting the loss of his fortune, hundreds of thousands of people were feeling quietly vindicated and thankful that their stubborn efforts and long endurance had not been in vain. For two solid years they had demonstrated bravely and selflessly against all odds to get rid of Thaksin’s parliamentary dictatorship and his corrupt regime. These honest-to-goodness citizens had come out day after day to march, to stand, to sit and even to sleep on the streets in the scorching sun and pouring rain, against deadly teargas and hails of M79 grenades.

They therefore could not help but relish every moment of the eight hours that the Supreme Court took to spell out Thaksin’s dubious crimes in minute legal details before pronouncing him guilty of policy corruption and for creating unusual wealth at the expense of national interest. It was however somewhat of a let-down for them when only half of the THB 76 billion was confiscated. They believed that the actual damage caused by Thaksin to the country has been far greater than could be expressed in any monetary term.

More disturbing news

During the first week of 2/10, fully armed PM Hun Sen of Cambodia created quite a stir when he made a high profiled visit to Khao Phra Viharn where he was courteously welcomed by a Thai military contingent. At the border, he gave another abusive speech against the Thai PM, after he was asked to unarm if he wished to also visit Viharn Muentaprom on the Thai territory. When the GT200 bomb detector scandal broke, PM Abhisit gave a strong warning against their faulty and ineffective use, much to the embarrassment of the Thai military who stood firm about using this highly questionable (and expensive) instrument in the deep south.

Another scandal was triggered by a retired deputy secretary general when he spoke publicly about the blatant (and pricy) sale of appointment to key positions in the ministry of interior. This is very much along the same line as at the police department, where the appointment of their chief has yet to materialize! Meanwhile a rumor that the ministry of commerce would be dumping 2 million tons of rice from their stock pile, has sent rice prices tumbling, causing an unexpected and most untimely protest against PM Abhisit’s rice insurance program

Struggling to move ahead

Fortunately for the government, the economy was turning increasingly more positive, with tax collections well above the target. The cost of living and housing subsidy programs were scaled down or stopped to reflect the positive change in circumstances. The cabinet also approved the new master plan for mass transit systems, with two additional lines (pink and orange) and an extension of the airport link to Don Mueang Airport.

From now on, the Abhisit government would have to track the farm sector more closely again now that the hot season has arrived earlier than normal, with soaring temperatures and fast dwindling water supply especially in the northeast where even the mighty Mekong River seemed to be running dry. Mindful of the importance of FDI to carry on the economic growth momentum, PM Abhisit inaugurated the “One Start, One Stop” service center, set up specifically to assist foreign investors and facilitate their dealings with the Thai bureaucratic system.

More beautiful figures

In 1/10, private investment grew yoy for the eight consecutive months. Industrial capacity utilization was at 68%. Export increased by 31% yoy to USD 31.6 billion. Import shot up 50% yoy to USD 31.0 billion. Trade balance, current account balance and balance of payments were all in the black at USD 591 million, USD 1,997 million and USD 4, 966 million respectively. International reserves increased to USD 142.4 billion.

Consumer price index was 4.1% with core inflation of 0.5%. Unemployment went down to 0.9%. Improved consumer confidence fueled further private consumption. Bank lending grew 3% yoy, with interest rates remaining unchanged. The THB ended the month on a strong uptrend at THB 33.04/USD. The SET closed at 721 in spite of the on-going political problems.

It’s the economy, stupid!

In 2/10 the Thai economy has once again proved to be resilient and much stronger than expected. The actual figures of 4Q09 GDP (+5.7%) and for the whole of 09 (-2.3%) were most welcomed news. Business confidence index was also up in 1/10, as the legal impasse at Maptaphut has made some headway. This year, tourist arrivals were expected to reach 15.5 million.

Thailand’s GDP rate has been revised upward to 4.5% and as high as 5%-6% by the IMF and some international banks. Foreign capital inflow has been steady. Foreign investors seemed to have got used to Thailand’s political bickering and could now understand that the country needed more time to clean up the political mess because of the people’s fatalistic attitude, compromising nature and non-confrontation culture.

Let it be known

Most people believed the verdict of 26/2/10 would go down in history as an important milestone on Thailand’s long and rough road towards full democracy and the rule of law. This historical case did not only punish the former prime minister but also send out a strong message that the people of Thailand have wised up to those sinister political crimes and that they would no longer tolerate corrupt practices among politicians and government officials.

Most academics and political pundits have come to accept the fact that events of the last few years have changed the dynamics of this country forever. The Thai society would have to make further sacrifices in order to narrow the disparity between the haves and the have-nots, between the urban and the rural population. The government would have to be truly and sincerely mindful of the needs, expectations and aspirations of the majority of the voters.

Politicians and bureaucrats could no longer collude blatantly to take the country for a ride while enriching themselves from their dark and dubious schemes. Most believed Thailand still has a long way to go before we could restore the kind of peace and harmony that we have taken for granted in the last six decades!

* Vongthip Chumpani is an advisor to and former president of Bangkok Bank and a former advisor to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. All views and opinions expressed herein are entirely from her own personal observations.

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