TransformED is grounded in a simple but uncompromising belief: that every child and young person, regardless of background or circumstance, deserves access to an excellent education system that equips them to thrive in a rapidly changing world.

The programme aims to drive improvement across six interlocking areas that research identifies as the foundations of high performing education systems: teacher professional learning, curriculum, qualifications, assessment, school improvement, and tackling educational disadvantage.

Crucially, TransformED adopts a new approach to education policy. It situates Northern Ireland’s system within a wider international context, recognising that while every system is unique, the highest-performing countries share common features, coherence across curriculum, pedagogy, and assessment. By drawing on global best practice, TransformED brings fresh insight, challenges assumptions and helps us build on approaches proven to deliver excellence elsewhere.

TransformED provides a coherent, evidence-driven set of actions to strengthen key elements of the education system. Year one has rightly focused on putting the system on a stronger footing. It has involved tough but necessary conversations, extensive engagement with teachers, school leaders, young people, and stakeholders, and the development of coherent policy frameworks across curriculum, literacy, assessment, qualifications, and teacher professional learning.

Over the next 12 months, the focus of TransformED will shift decisively from design to delivery. Following consultation on the new statutory curriculum and the introduction of new curriculum legislation, attention will turn to embedding the framework across the education system. This includes the preparation of high quality curriculum resources, development of a dedicated digital platform for resources, and introduction of a sustained professional development programme to support teachers to deliver new content effectively.

Together, these steps are intended to ensure that curriculum reform moves beyond legislation and policy into consistent classroom practice, with clarity about expectations and strong support for those delivering change.

TransformED recognises that lasting improvement happens not through short-term initiatives or structural change alone, but through sustained investment in teachers’ knowledge, skills, and confidence. The significant expansion of professional learning, alongside curriculum and assessment reform, reflects a deliberate strategy to strengthen classroom practice as the engine of system improvement.

Sustainable reform also requires equity across all parts of our school system. Half of Northern Ireland’s schools are in the controlled sector, educating 150,000 pupils, yet support for these schools has historically been below the standard we should expect. Plans to establish a new statutory body for the controlled sector will deliver genuine parity of support, consolidate existing structures efficiently, and lay the groundwork for a potential future single managing authority across all sectors.

“TransformED brings fresh insight, challenges assumptions, and helps us build on approaches proven to deliver excellence elsewhere.”

Paul Givan MLA, Education Minister

The reform of special educational needs provision is key to delivering an education system that ensures children and young people with SEN can benefit from greater inclusion and receive the right support, from the right people, at the right time, and in the right place.

Moving forward with action on the SEN Reform Agenda alongside initiatives to tackle educational disadvantage under the £20 million RAISE programme and continuing to invest in our youngest learners through the Early Learning Childcare Strategy, are building a future system that is more inclusive, equipped to unlock opportunities for every child, and contributing to a more prosperous future for our society. Taken together, these reforms represent a coherent, ambitious, and long-term vision for education in Northern Ireland.

The work of reform is demanding. It asks much of schools and leaders who are already striving to deliver so much for our children and young people despite the challenging financial climate the sector is operating within.

As Education Minister, I want to thank each and every one of those involved in keeping our schools running. The sheer scale of professional commitment across our education system needs to be acknowledged. The engagement and professionalism shown over the past year in TransformED initiatives is a testament to that. In engaging so willingly, teachers and school leaders have not just informed TransformED, they have shaped it, and, in doing so, played their part in transforming education for generations to come.

Working together we are seeing ambition become action; design move to delivery; and the creation of a system that extends opportunity to every young person, ensuring that every learner in every community gets the start in life they deserve.

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Where do infrastructure policy and investment ambitions diverge from subsurface realities, and what are the impacts on cost, consent, delivery, and public confidence?

Marie Cowan
Delivering major projects has become increasingly complex due to population growth, technological change, and climate pressures. Across the UK, major infrastructure schemes have faced challenges around value for money, uncertainty, governance, and cost overruns, with delays in Northern Ireland alone estimated to cost between £700 million and £1.94 billion. These issues compound over time and undermine confidence in delivery. A key factor is the lack of robust evidence at the earliest stages of project planning. Subsurface understanding is not a luxury but an essential part of good public decision-making. Northern Ireland already holds valuable datasets, but the challenge is adopting a more systematic and integrated approach so that this information consistently de-risks future infrastructure delivery.

Ulrich Ofterdinger
In Northern Ireland, geology is highly varied, with complex rock formations and overburden deposits that create additional risks for development. Without adequate baseline data, projects are more vulnerable to delays, redesigns, and escalating costs. These overruns reinforce public perceptions that infrastructure projects are poorly planned and badly managed. Providing consistent and accessible subsurface data at an early stage would allow developers to anticipate challenges, design projects more effectively, and reduce uncertainty, ultimately improving delivery.

Rosemary Daly
The planning system in Northern Ireland is under growing pressure to support infrastructure delivery, decarbonisation, and climate adaptation while also rebuilding public confidence through greater certainty and faster decision-making. Reliable subsurface knowledge is therefore extremely valuable because it strengthens the evidence base underpinning development plans and infrastructure proposals. Better information at the outset reduces uncertainty, improves project phasing, and supports higher-quality design outcomes from the start. For investors, understanding the physical constraints and opportunities of a site allows developers and infrastructure providers to anticipate challenges before committing resources.

Sean Finlay
Infrastructure policy and investment decisions must incorporate subsurface information because, without it, project delivery is inevitably compromised. Poor or incomplete subsurface data increases the likelihood of delays, overspending, and underperformance. A significant issue is that many enterprise and economic development agencies do not fully appreciate the importance of geoscience and subsurface evidence. If infrastructure projects are weakened by inadequate data, the wider economic development those agencies seek to promote is also undermined.

Sarah Gleeson
Infrastructure planning and climate resilience strategies should begin with an understanding of the subsurface. Applied geoscience provides essential evidence for making better long-term decisions on infrastructure, climate adaptation, and mitigation. Many projects experience delays because subsurface conditions are considered too late in the process. Addressing these issues earlier reduces uncertainty, improves confidence among contractors and investors, and lowers overall project risk.
Additionally, expanding critical infrastructure such as housing depends on raw materials such as aggregates and cement, which ultimately come from the subsurface. These resource demands are often overlooked in planning and there are also social acceptance and environmental challenges associated with extracting them.

Corinna Abesser
UK infrastructure ambitions increasingly depend on the subsurface, requiring an evidence base that reflects geological variability and uncertainty. Yet valuable geological and ground investigation data collected through infrastructure projects are frequently used only once before being archived or lost, even when publicly funded. This creates inefficiencies, duplicated costs, and missed opportunities to build a shared evidence base. As a result, projects more frequently encounter unexpected ground conditions that drive overruns and weaken public confidence. Countries such as Germany and the Netherlands require geological data sharing, demonstrating that accessible subsurface information can reduce project failures and deliver significant national savings.

How well is shallow subsurface evidence integrated into early infrastructure design, and how could this improve delivery certainty, environmental performance and community outcomes?

Sean Finlay
Any well-designed infrastructure project should include a substantial subsurface component from the outset, and there is a strong argument that this should become mandatory. The financial implications of failing to do so are significant. The scale of costs associated with inadequate subsurface information is striking, and regardless of what proportion of total infrastructure spending it represents, it is still money that could be far better spent elsewhere through more informed planning and early-stage investigation.

Sarah Gleeson
Subsurface evidence should be embedded much earlier in planning and design processes, particularly where there are opportunities to connect infrastructure delivery with climate resilience and energy innovation. For example, excess heat generated by data centres could potentially be stored in the subsurface and linked to district heating systems in urban areas, creating more sustainable infrastructure outcomes. However, these kinds of projects often struggle to gain market confidence because investors want proof that the technology works at scale. Demonstrator projects, such as some of the geothermal initiatives already underway in Ireland and Europe, are therefore critical to building confidence.

Corinna Abesser
Every year, around £1.3 billion is spent in the UK on ground investigations for infrastructure projects, yet much of this data is never deposited or shared. As a result, investigations are repeatedly duplicated, increasing costs and inefficiencies, while limiting wider benefits such as improving national geological models. The British Geological Survey already provides mechanisms for data submission and sharing, but returns in Britain remain low even from large, publicly-funded infrastructure projects. The problem is therefore not technical but systemic. Reusing existing data could deliver considerable efficiency savings but will require stronger incentives or requirements to share data.

“Subsurface understanding is not a luxury but an essential part of good public decision-making.”
Marie Cowan

Marie Cowan
Northern Ireland already possesses an exceptional range of subsurface and surface datasets, including LiDAR, digital terrain models, flood risk, coastal and peatland data. The challenge is integrating these more strategically across government. Initiatives such as the TELLUS and GeoEnergy NI projects plus new groundwater, engineering geology, and peat slide susceptibility maps already demonstrate the value of accessible evidence for infrastructure delivery and climate resilience. Importantly, the Department for Finance has piloted contract clauses requiring geotechnical data generated through public-procured projects to be shared, resulting in thousands of additional borehole data to captured. There is the opportunity to scale this into a fully coordinated, pan-government system where data from all sectors can be shared, integrated, and enhanced through technologies such as AI to improve long-term planning and delivery certainty.

Ulrich Ofterdinger
Specialists working on infrastructure projects may know how to access the specific datasets relevant to their discipline, but integrating those datasets into a coherent and shared interpretation remains difficult. Different agencies collect and manage information in different ways, meaning valuable evidence is often inaccessible to those outside specialist networks. While there are strong examples of integrated platforms, such as the TELLUS dataset and the Northern Ireland Coastal Observatory, these remain exceptions rather than the norm. For technologies such as AI and machine learning to support infrastructure planning effectively, data must be easier to find, compatible across systems, and openly accessible.

Rosemary Daly
Having access to high-quality existing data allows planners and developers and infrastructure investors to identify whether projects are viable before major costs are incurred. Better evidence leads to more realistic programmes, improved environmental performance, and infrastructure that is better suited to the communities it serves. The subsurface shapes landscapes, ecosystems, settlements, and even patterns of drainage and development, providing meaningful local environmental information and understanding which is critical. Communities themselves often hold valuable knowledge about how landscapes behave, where flooding occurs, or which areas are unsuitable for development. Respecting that knowledge, alongside scientific evidence, helps ensure infrastructure is delivered more sensitively, sustainably, and in ways that protect the character and environmental value of local areas.

What role should deep subsurface knowledge play in long-term infrastructure and energy decisions, and what evidence and governance are needed to support responsible investment?

“Excess heat generated by data centres could potentially be stored in the subsurface and linked to district heating systems in urban areas, creating more sustainable infrastructure outcomes.”
Sarah Gleeson

Sarah Gleeson
Since subsurface systems do not follow political boundaries, an all-island approach to data and planning, such as that demonstrated through the TELLUS programme, is especially valuable. However, two key challenges remain. First, communicating deep subsurface issues to communities is difficult because people cannot easily visualise what exists underground and technical scientific explanations often fail to engage the public effectively. Second, there are increasingly complex questions around competing uses of the subsurface, including geothermal development, drinking water protection, and major infrastructure projects. Long-term planning therefore requires governance frameworks capable of balancing multiple interests while ensuring communities are meaningfully involved in decision-making.

Rosemary Daly
Better understanding of groundwater, drainage systems, habitats, and wider ecological relationships beneath the surface supports faster and more informed decision-making. Increasing the quality and amount of information submitted early in the planning process helps avoid situations where problems only emerge halfway through development or planning cycle. The more knowledge available at the beginning of a project, the more effectively infrastructure and development can be planned in a way that balances development needs with environmental protection and long-term sustainability for communities and natural systems alike.

Marie Cowan
Across Northern Ireland, large volumes of geoscience, planning, and environmental data already exist. If these datasets were systematically extracted, integrated, and shared, they could significantly improve future decision-making and investment certainty. An all-island approach is especially important because geology, water catchments, and environmental pathways do not stop at borders. Historical datasets also gain new relevance as priorities change. Demonstrator projects, combined with integrated governance and shared data systems, can help communities better understand emerging technologies and enable long-term infrastructure delivery.

Sean Finlay
A key requirement is the creation of coordinated, centrally curated datasets that combine information from both public and private sources, and make it readily accessible for future use. Many European countries already require developers to submit subsurface data to state or regional authorities, and similar approaches should be considered more widely. Importantly, subsurface systems do not stop at political borders or coastlines, so governance frameworks need to reflect the interconnected nature of geological and environmental systems through greater collaboration across jurisdictions.

“For technologies such as AI and machine learning to support infrastructure planning effectively, data must be easier to find, compatible across systems, and openly accessible.”
Ulrich Ofterdinger

Ulrich Ofterdinger
Subsurface spaces are being considered for multiple purposes, including geothermal energy, groundwater storage, flood mitigation, carbon storage, and seasonal heat storage. This creates competing demands that require careful long-term management, monitoring, and oversight. Governance therefore needs to ensure that decisions made today do not unintentionally sterilise the subsurface for future uses that may become essential for climate adaptation or mitigation. At the same time, there are significant investment opportunities emerging through sustainable finance mechanisms such as green bonds. Responsible investment will therefore depend on balancing innovation, environmental stewardship, and long-term strategic planning.

Corinna Abesser
Instead of allocating on a first come, first served basis, governance frameworks also need to look at subsurface use over time, considering 30- to 50-year planning horizons, to ensure current activities do not sterilise the subsurface for future needs or deplete resources. Geothermal energy is an important example. Many cities are expected to use the subsurface for heat extraction, storage, and balancing energy demand, yet heat is not recognised as a natural resource within existing legislation. This raises important questions about whether governance and licensing frameworks need to evolve so geothermal resources can be managed, regulated, and integrated into long-term infrastructure planning.

How should surface, shallow, and deep subsurface systems be integrated into climate resilience planning to 2050 and beyond, in a way that strengthens environmental resilience, economic outcomes, and social capital?

Rosemary Daly
Better subsurface understanding allows planners to allocate land more effectively, identify development limits, and phase infrastructure in ways that reflect real environmental constraints. This leads to more environmentally responsible outcomes and strengthens confidence in planning processes such as the local development plan delivery. As more robust subsurface information is embedded into local development plans, certainty for investors increases and planning decisions become more transparent and trusted. This also supports a shift towards more integrated design approaches that account for environmental systems beneath the surface, ensuring infrastructure is better aligned with both ecological conditions and long-term resilience objectives.

“Any well-designed infrastructure project should include a substantial subsurface component from the outset, and there is a strong argument that this should become mandatory.”
Sean Finlay

Ulrich Ofterdinger
Geothermal energy provides an indigenous, low-carbon source for heating and cooling, helping decarbonise one of the largest sources of emissions and reducing reliance on external energy systems. The subsurface also supports climate adaptation through groundwater management and the storage of excess water during wetter periods for subsequent use during droughts. In addition, identifying subsurface energy ‘hotspots’ can help guide the location of industries that are energy-intensive, improving efficiency and reducing environmental impact.

Marie Cowan
A systems-based approach, similar to an integrated energy or climate dashboard, could bring together real-time data on water levels, temperature, chemistry, subsidence, and other environmental indicators to support dynamic decision-making. This could evolve into digital twins of local council areas, allowing planners to test scenarios in advance and prepare for events such as landslides, floods, or coastal risks. Such systems would support proactive risk management rather than reactive responses, improving resilience in the face of increasing climate emergencies. Given the exposure of critical infrastructure to climate risk and environmental change, integrating subsurface intelligence would strengthen economic stability and public safety.

Corinna Abesser
Success of climate adaptation depends on subsurface processes: flood risk is linked to infiltration and groundwater levels, drought resilience depends on groundwater storage, and nature-based solutions are closely linked to soil systems. A whole-system view is therefore required, recognising subsurface processes as equally important as surface conditions. Recent engagement with planning professionals also highlights the need for better data availability, improved visibility of subsurface use, and stronger data stewardship. Better alignment between planning, regulation, and subsurface knowledge can deliver more coordinated and effective climate adaptation outcomes.

“Accessible subsurface information can reduce project failures and deliver significant national savings.”
Corinna Abesser

Sarah Gleeson
Climate resilience planning must include the concept of the subsurface as system, as all surface, shallow, and deep subsurface processes are interconnected such as flooding, biodiversity, groundwater, geology, and coastal change, and all impact infrastructure resilience. The subsurface also contains valuable records of past climate and environmental change, providing an important archive for understanding long-term Earth systems. Advances in technology now allow much more sophisticated monitoring and modelling of subsurface and infrastructure health. These tools can be used to track embankment stability, peatland conditions, and other critical systems in real time, improving early warning and risk management.

Sean Finlay
Climate resilience planning should prioritise the subsurface as a key component of national infrastructure strategy, particularly through geothermal energy development, subsurface storage, and resource security. In addition, ensuring access to critical raw materials is essential for long-term resilience and aligns with broader UK and European policy goals around reducing external dependencies. These uses highlight the strategic importance of the subsurface not only for environmental resilience but also for energy security and economic stability. A coordinated focus on these areas will be essential for building a resilient infrastructure system capable of supporting future climate and resource challenges.

How can subsurface data from infrastructure projects be better shared and re-used to build a national evidence base, and what governance is needed to manage it in the public interest?

Corinna Abesser
Geological surveys see part of their role as collecting, curating, and facilitating access to this information, but the main challenge is that much of the data never becomes accessible in the first place. Voluntary approaches and contractual arrangements have had limited success in Britain, so stronger mandates may now be necessary, particularly for publicly funded projects. Data generated using public money should be returned to a public body, such as a geological survey, where it can be made available for wider use. Evidence from the Netherlands and Germany shows that mandatory data sharing improves planning, project delivery, cost control, and long-term infrastructure outcomes.

Sean Finlay
Mandatory reporting of subsurface data to a central agency, most likely a national geological survey, is the most effective long-term solution for building a coherent and reusable national evidence base.

Sarah Gleeson
Subsurface data should be treated as a strategic national resource, requiring long-term investment in curation, archiving, protection, and accessibility to all stakeholders. The ambition for subsurface data sharing should extend beyond geosciences alone. Germany’s National Research Data Infrastructure provides a strong example, with data repositories covering earth sciences, chemistry, health, and other disciplines linked to the European Open Science Cloud. This enables large-scale data science and AI applications across sectors. There is also a significant opportunity for stronger all-island collaboration around geothermal energy, groundwater, and climate resilience planning for infrastructure.

Ulrich Ofterdinger
Large, accessible datasets can become powerful national assets when they are collected and managed in a standardised and interoperable way. Comparable examples already exist in sectors such as healthcare, where shared NHS data has helped drive innovation and new forms of analysis. In the same way, initiatives such as the TELLUS dataset demonstrate the value of making high-quality environmental and subsurface information openly available for industry, research, and applications that may not even yet be anticipated. Standardised data systems would also support the development of new analytical tools, including AI-based approaches, while making information easier for non-specialists to access and interpret.

Rosemary Daly
At present, often approaches can be fragmented. A more joined-up system would improve understanding and increase the value of the information already being collected. Responsibility should not rest solely with public bodies; investors and developers also have an important role to play. Better accessibility and standardisation would support public decision-making and private investment, helping ensure that everyone involved knows what information exists, how it can be used, and how it can contribute to more efficient and informed infrastructure delivery.

“Increasing the quality and amount of information submitted early in the planning process helps avoid situations where problems only emerge halfway through development.”
Rosemary Daly

Marie Cowan
The future of subsurface data sharing lies in creating a much broader and more integrated ecosystem that extends beyond geoscience alone. Environmental science, engineering, planning, communication, and social science all need to interact if infrastructure and environmental challenges are to be addressed effectively. Models such as the Dutch ‘diamond approach,’ which brings together government, industry, researchers, and the public, offer a useful framework for collaboration. There is currently strong momentum for UK-Ireland cooperation, supported by shared geology, common climate and infrastructure challenges, and growing research collaboration. This creates an opportunity for a cross-border centre of excellence focused on the future of the subsurface, combining interdisciplinary research, shared learning, governance innovation, and public engagement to support economic development, environmental stewardship, and long-term strategic planning.

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Recent energy price spikes serve as a reminder of how exposed the homes and businesses of this region are to global events that lie completely outside of their control. This was evident after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and is again clear following the US-Israeli attacks on Iran. These global events triggered sharp fuel price increases around the world and hit local households.

With two-thirds of our households using home heating oil, the impact was particularly severe here.

I quickly engaged with my counterparts in the Executive, as well as the British Government, to seek support for homes and businesses facing these unfair costs, and with the Irish Government to share information as the situation developed.

The Executive has agreed to provide an additional £19.2 million in addition to the £17 million announced by the Treasury to support consumers of home heating oil in the North who are most in need and that is being delivered through the Department for Communities.

Separate to that, and before the current energy crisis, officials from my department and the Department of Finance had secured a commitment from the Treasury to cover 75 per cent of the NIRO cost to domestic electricity consumers.

Subject to the necessary legislation and approvals being in place, the agreed approach is for suppliers to apply a credit of around £30 per year for three years, directly to domestic electricity bills.

The conflict continues to have a financial impact on local businesses and households which are already struggling with the cost-of-living crisis, and I continue to press for financial support, highlighting the North’s unique exposure.

The need to transition to renewable energy

Fundamental to breaking the existing link to volatile global commodity prices, and importantly, delivering energy at stable, lower cost to homes and businesses, is the delivery of the Energy Strategy.

Over the next couple of decades, we will import less fossil fuel and we will pay a fair price for the energy we produce locally. We will become a price-maker rather than a price-taker.

Progress

At the end of last year, I published the Mid-Term Review of the Energy Strategy 2030, which outlined that we are firmly on the pathway to delivering our ambition of self-sufficiency in affordable renewable energy by 2050.

The strategy’s 2030 targets provide focus for us, our partners, and the stakeholders whose contributions are vital to keep us moving towards the goal of self-sufficiency in affordable renewable energy. As we achieve our objectives on the pathway to this goal, we will increasingly deliver the benefits to people, society, the economy, and the environment.

Progress on delivering the Energy Strategy has already produced economic opportunities for the North. Recent figures put our green economy at close to £1.5 billion turnover each year, up over 50 per cent since 2020, and the Energy Strategy ambition is to grow that to £2 billion by the end of the decade.

Today, almost half of the electricity generated in this region is renewable, and consumption figures are trending upwards once again, with the latest official figures showing 47 per cent.

And we have a clear line of policy sight, outlined for the draft Climate Action Plan, on how to meet the energy savings target by 2030.

Setting ambitious targets, annual action plans and long-term goals encourages innovation and investment in our local economy, creating skilled jobs and enhancing the region’s competitiveness.

Consumer benefit

Consumers are at the heart of the Energy Strategy, and I want to accelerate delivery through collaboration across government, industry, and communities so that consumers can see and feel the benefits of the changes we are all making together.

The rollout of smart electricity meters is a good example of how consumers will feel the benefit of a smarter, more flexible, and cleaner electricity grid.

Smart meters are already saving engaged consumers in the South and Britain hundreds of pounds through innovative and smarter tariffs from suppliers.

At the end of April 2026, I published the Design Plan for Smart Electricity Meters, setting out how smart meters will be introduced in a carefully planned, consumer-focused way here in the North.

Delivered by NIE Networks, smart meters will support consumers to better manage their electricity usage, helping to reduce electricity bills, as well as creating greater resilience in our local grid.

Futureproofing the electricity system, by increasing its capacity, is a key enabler of a decarbonised energy system and underpins our wider net zero ambitions.

NIE Networks’ ‘Big Network Rebuild’, being delivered through the Utility Regulator approved £2.3 billion investment, is a significant development to enable the renewables that will deliver a lower and more stable cost for consumers.

We need a strong, smart, flexible, modern grid with sufficient storage and to meet as much of the demand for electricity from our own local resources.

My department established and chairs the Grid Development Monitoring Group, which is driving progress on key transmission and distribution projects, providing a focus on the needed new infrastructure and stretching the operating envelope to enable more renewable capacity onto the system.

We are also supporting SONI in the delivery of its dispatch down reduction plan, which is reducing costs for electricity consumers by utilising more of our available renewable electricity capacity.
This is a critical part of my plan to secure more locally produced renewable energy at a stable energy price, insulating households and businesses from global energy cost shocks.

The Renewable Electricity Price Guarantee (REPG) scheme will position our region as a competitive and attractive destination for renewables investment. Having published the Final Scheme Design in 2025, I am progressing the Primary Bill, and once in law, it will be used over the next 25 years to underpin stable renewable energy prices for consumers.

It will enable auctions to take place at the right time, securing the best technologies and capacity at a fair price for consumers.

In addition, grid-scale battery energy storage is an important piece of the jigsaw for cost-effective security of electricity supply, and I intend to outline energy storage policy by the end of this year.

Engagement

Crucially, the transition to a decarbonised energy system must be fair, and we must ensure consumers are engaged and protected throughout the journey.

Delivering a vibrant, healthy, green economy is a moral obligation, but it is also one of the greatest economic opportunities of many generations. I want people to see and feel the benefits of change, and to have confidence that the transition will be fair, properly supported, and focused on lowering bills over the long term.

Conclusion

Taken together, this work represents just some of the multi-layered and complex jigsaw of energy policy that my department is developing and bringing forward with our partners across the Executive.

I will continue to bring people together to remove barriers, make decisions at pace, and keep a relentless focus on benefits for consumers.

My goal for the rest of this mandate is to accelerate progress on laying the foundations for lasting price stability, sustainable investment, and an economy powered by reliable, and affordable clean energy.

That is the prize, and it is within our reach.

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Renewable Electricity: progress, barriers and policy in the United Kingdom and the European Union, published in September 2025, says that Northern Ireland’s 27 per cent difference between its target of 80 per cent for renewable energy usage and current usage ranks it 11th out of the 19 countries examined.

However, most countries that rank above Northern Ireland in this metric have less ambitious targets.

Planning delays are recognised as a key barrier to renewable energy development, with knowledge gaps across departments, the length of time taken for decisions, and lack of resources in planning departments highlighted as core issues.

The average processing time for renewable energy applications in 2024/25 across Northern Ireland was 45.6 weeks, according to the Department for Infrastructure.

Grid connectivity

Common complaints regarding grid connectivity from relevant stakeholders include the length of time it takes to first receive an offer and then connect to the grid, and that the first come, first served approach to the connection queue was flawed.

This contrasts with the Republic, where the 25 renewable projects with the potential to deliver the most energy annually are prioritised on the grid connection list.

Another challenge for Northern Ireland related to the electricity grid is flexibility.

The key flexibility challenge is known as ‘dispatch down’, which refers to situations where system operators are required to reduce the output of renewable generation below its maximum level to effectively manage the grid.
Northern Ireland has consistently had a higher dispatch down rate for wind than the Republic since 2016.

In 2024, the System Operator for Northern Ireland (SONI) said the high level is due to a range of factors, including demand, the amount of wind and solar installed on the system, and the capacity factor of renewable generation.

To address Northern Ireland’s grid connectivity challenge, the Department for the Economy conducted a consultation on a Smart Systems Flexibility Plan in April 2024, but the plan itself has not yet been published.

The report highlights policies being considered in Britain which could be implemented in Northern Ireland to address grid-related challenges.

These include offering reduced-cost electricity to new sources of demand to locate locations of constraint, as well as ‘transfer boosters’ which use battery storage to import energy during times of high wind and export it during times of low wind.

The report concludes that while Northern Ireland’s distance to its renewable energy target is not insurmountable and it is facing similar barriers as Britain and many EU member states, there is more that can be done to increase the use of renewable energy.

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Along with the Climate Change Act, the Energy Strategy established the strategic direction Northern Ireland would take until 2030 and set associated ambitious targets for statutory bodies and industry stakeholders.

Approximately 47 per cent of electricity consumption comes from renewable sources, the green economy is estimated to have £1.41 billion turnover and we have seen developments in the Renewable Energy Price Guarantee (REPG), smart metering and green skills. The Mid-Year Review re-emphasises that delivering net zero in Northern Ireland has a critical dependency on accelerating electricity network investment, unlocking renewable connections and enabling electrification at pace, while protecting consumers.

It is appropriate that attention also turns to what comes post 2030.

“Northern Ireland has strong statutory climate targets, an Energy Strategy in place and active stakeholders. I think it would be helpful to look beyond the horizon of 2030 to a shared, plan-led framework,” says Ciarán McManus, Managing Director, NIE Networks.

McManus is the newly appointed Managing Director of NIE Networks. Having joined NIE Networks in April, McManus brings a unique perspective having worked in the energy industry across Ireland, UK, and America.

He previously held a number of positions within the ESB Group in thermal generation, large-scale capital infrastructure delivery and major projects, helping to secure the first offshore wind auction (Tonn Nua) in a joint venture with offshore wind developer Orsted. Working with renewable energy developers and network operators in America also provided additional perspective on how things could be done.

“The pace of delivery in America is the single biggest difference. Their systems, planning and environmental protections are materially different than here but their focus on delivery is relentless and everything is geared around that delivery at a local level.”

A perspective worth noting as Northern Ireland is currently working to streamline its own planning and decision-making processes for critical infrastructure.

It therefore makes sense that any future plans should be as integrated as possible.

McManus continues: “There is a large degree of consensus across the sector in terms of the role electricity and renewable generation can deliver for the homes and businesses of Northern Ireland but that collaboration has to move beyond alignment of thought. There remain some important policy, affordability and delivery questions to be addressed so working together on a co-ordinated, plan-led approach for the next decade would maintain that strong alignment as we progress towards our collective goals.”

An Energy Consensus: Developing a Regional Integrated Energy System references that alignment. The KPMG Report published in November 2025 was commissioned by the Northern Ireland gas network operators and presented a collaborative approach from Phoenix Energy, NIE Networks, SONI, and Mutual Energy. It was presented as a starting point for further cross-sectoral policy development, investment planning, and public engagement. It argues that Northern Ireland can only achieve a secure, affordable and socially acceptable transition through a whole-system, integrated approach in which renewable electricity leads decarbonisation, supported by storage, flexible generation and better use of existing infrastructure.

It is something that McManus is eager to expand upon: “That collaboration must include energy infrastructure, transport, housing, water and wider economic planning under a shared long-term framework. Starting to work together on a combined plan that aligns our planning, economic and energy aspirations will maximise the potential across all three areas.”

NIE Networks’ strategy

McManus has joined NIE Networks one year into its ambitious RP7 price control period. Allowing for £2.23 billion of expenditure, RP7 is a step change in investment for the company and includes a £250 million refurbishment programme known publicly as “The Big Network Rebuild”.

A doubling of capital construction from their previous price control, over the six-year period they will rebuild and refurb approximately 14,000km of the electricity distribution network to ensure a more reliable and resilient network with quicker access and more capacity for current and future customers.

The company is also conscious that the network needs to work differently in future, using new tools to flexibly match supply with demand and to shift load to times when more capacity is available at off-peak periods.

With the rise in operational data and AI technologies, it is hoped that technological advice will play an increasing role in informing that flexibility and other network operational decisions.

McManus says: “We have an abundance of operational data so we are working to integrate IT and operational technologies and to harness AI-generated insights to improve network visibility, enhance safety, and optimise performance. We are also focused on ensuring fewer outages to deliver improved resilience and a better customer experience.

“The future will be increasingly decentralised with thousands of small producers using rooftop solar and other low-carbon technologies. As we continue to connect more low carbon technologies, particularly behind the meter technologies, we need to evolve our way of managing the overall system through data and IT.

“In markets like California and parts of Australia, distributed energy systems featuring solar PV, wind turbines, and EVs are already widespread with households feeding surplus energy back to the grid and becoming ‘prosumers’. Enabling these multi-directional flows while maintaining network stability requires decision-making which is based upon vast amounts of data, operational insight and technologies so the future distribution system operator will be as much about data as it is about overhead lines and cables.”

Linked closely to that is the company’s innovation programme with several projects underway to release capacity or provide flexible demand connections so that more use can be made of the network without additional network investment.

A just transition

The Climate Change Act included the principle of a Just Transition which focuses on achieving net zero fairly and in a way that ensures no one is left behind.

In May 2026, the Utility Regulator published its report Protecting consumers on the way to net zero: deliberative research on the Just Transition which found that the benefits of the transition were not always clear. Without such clarity and with cost of living consistently being of top concern in the Consumer Council’s latest Pulse Surveys, the challenge to empower the transition from fossil fuels to clean energy is evident.

McManus says: “Protecting the most vulnerable is fundamental. So when we are planning for a just transition we need to avoid disproportionate financial and practical burdens on those least able to cope. There is also an onus on us to deliver a future system that can provide more predictable energy costs for homes and businesses.

“There are important aspects of the Energy Strategy that must be delivered to enable an affordable and just transition. There has been movement in some areas but appropriate market incentives would strengthen this momentum so that the benefits become clearer and more accessible to all.

“An example of this can be seen in Spain where its large and rapidly growing renewable energy mix has substantially reduced its exposure to volatile fossil fuel prices and protected it from the worst electricity cost escalations seen elsewhere in Europe – particularly when combined with supportive market interventions such as the Iberian price mechanism. Their market has some differences from our own but it is an example of how well-designed interventions can have a positive impact for customers.

“Tariff reform, which is a key part of the Utility Regulator’s Forward Work Programme for this year, will be a fundamental enabler in this space but any investment decisions must continue to balance decarbonisation, resilience and affordability. A key part of that process is ensuring that communities and consumers have visibility and input to those plans.”

Electricity network as a key economic driver

The electricity network is a key economic driver and the evidence worldwide is that those countries who have closely aligned their net zero approach to economic delivery are the ones who are meeting or exceeding their climate change targets.

To meet Climate Change Act targets and ESG credentials, which are increasingly important to investors, businesses are working to decarbonise their operations. In such a volatile global market they also need to remain highly competitive and reduce their energy costs. It can become something of a conundrum as companies try to work out how to electrify operations yet remain competitive.

“A key component for businesses, in particular, is certainty. They need to know that the investments they make are based on solid foundations. Another area of focus for us is how easy and transparent the connection process is so we are working to make sure that businesses know upfront what opportunities are available, how they can make an application and that the connection process is smooth and swift,” says McManus, who adds: “We are certainly aware that our RP7 programme is central to delivery.”

It is illustrative of the pivotal role NIE Networks plays as an enabler of this integrated energy system: investing in a resilient, capacity-rich and easily accessible electricity network and coordinating closely with energy system operators. By avoiding over-optimisation of a single pathway McManus is confident that electrification can scale at pace while maintaining security of supply, affordability and consumer choice during an uncertain and highly variable transition.

The implications of the decisions they take are not lost on the managing director: “The electricity network plays a crucial role beyond its core function of delivering a safe and reliable energy supply. Its capability and performance are closely aligned to economic growth and social development so we are conscious that the decisions we make today will have lasting implications, not just for Northern Ireland, but for all of us who require a reliable electricity supply.”

The exact path that Northern Ireland will take over the coming years is uncertain; however, he is clear that the energy and ambition exists to co-ordinate a plan for the next decade and ensure that the key bodies have a seat at the table.

“That is one benefit of having compact geography; it is much easier to collaborate when you are so closely connected like we are in Northern Ireland. The KPMG report was a very helpful baseline and it is now about bringing together our expertise and data to produce a combined framework that exploits our current resources and opportunities and ensures the best route to net zero for everyone in Northern Ireland,” McManus concludes.

www.nienetworks.co.uk

The post Beyond 2030: A plan-led approach appeared first on agendaNi.

Thomas Spencer, a senior analyst at the International Energy Agency, asserts that electricity is becoming the defining aspect of global energy infrastructure. He says that modern economies are increasingly “electricity intensive”, particularly in high-value sectors such as financial services, advanced manufacturing, and digital industries.

He explains that this shift is structural and tied to both economic development and decarbonisation. “If we are to decarbonise our energy systems, electrification will be a key route. Electricity demand is not only growing because economies are expanding, but because they are actively switching away from fossil fuels.”

Spencer highlights that this transition is already visible in the data. Global electricity demand grew by 4.5 per cent in 2024 and a further 3 per cent in 2025. While these figures may appear incremental, he emphasises their significance at system level. “The 2025 increase alone represents around 1,000 TWh of additional consumption, roughly equivalent to adding the entire electricity demand of Japan in a single year.”

Between now and 2035, global electricity consumption is expected to increase by around 10,000 TWh. Spencer says this shift is comparable to the combined electricity consumption of all advanced economies today.

Advanced economies

One of the most notable changes, Spencer argues, is the return of electricity demand growth in advanced economies.

“For roughly two decades, consumption in these regions was largely flat, driven by efficiency gains and structural changes in industry, but that pattern is now breaking.”

He explains that electrification is a key driver, particularly through electric vehicles and heating systems. However, he also identifies artificial intelligence and data infrastructure as increasingly important factors.

Spencer states that data centres and AI are expected to account for around 10 per cent of global electricity demand growth to 2030. While significant, he stresses that most demand growth is still coming from broader forces, particularly industrialisation in emerging markets.

In regions such as India and southeast Asia, he explains that electricity demand is being driven by “cooling, appliance growth, and industrialisation”, and in these contexts, AI plays “a relatively minor role”.

Data centres and AI

Spencer points to rapid expansion in global data centre electricity use, which reached around 415 TWh in 2024, comparable to the electricity consumption of France. Despite this scale, he emphasises that it still represents only around 1.5 per cent of global electricity demand.

However, data centre demand has been growing at around 12 per cent annually over the past five years, roughly four times faster than overall electricity consumption. He links this directly to AI, as new AI-optimised servers are significantly more energy-intensive than conventional computing infrastructure.

Regional divergence

Spencer states that the contribution to electricity growth by emerging economies is relatively small. In contrast, in advanced economies they are becoming a key driver of renewed demand growth.

The most pronounced case is the United States, where data centres are projected to account for around half of electricity demand growth out to 2035. He attributes this to the US position as the dominant global data centre hub, hosting around 45 per cent of installed capacity.

The People’s Republic of China follows with approximately 25 per cent, while Europe accounts for around 15 per cent. Spencer outlines that Europe’s share has declined significantly over the past decade, largely due to slower deployment and regulatory and infrastructure constraints. This has prompted policy concern at EU level, with efforts now underway to accelerate data centre development and strengthen digital sovereignty.

System challenges

Spencer identifies data centres as a new category of energy infrastructure that does not fit neatly into existing planning frameworks.

“First, they can be built extremely quickly, often within 18 to 24 months, compared to several years for transmission infrastructure. Second, they are becoming extremely large, reaching gigawatt-scale consumption. Third, they tend to cluster geographically, creating concentrated pressure on local grids.”

He points to rapid growth in project pipelines, outlining a 70 per cent increase in proposed data centre capacity in the first three quarters of 2025 alone. While not all of these projects will proceed, he warns that speculative applications already create significant strain on grid connection processes.

Spencer describes this as a coordination challenge between infrastructure planning and private sector development timelines. In his view, existing systems are struggling to manage the speed and volume of applications.

Flexibility

The response, he argues, will require greater flexibility in how data centres interact with electricity systems.

He suggests that even small levels of operational flexibility could have significant system benefits. For example, allowing data centres to shift consumption for just 1 per cent of hours in a year could, in theory, enable three times more capacity to be integrated in the EU than currently projected.

However, he acknowledges that this is not straightforward as data centres rely on highly expensive IT infrastructure, meaning that reducing utilisation carries real economic costs.

As a result, he outlines a hierarchy of potential solutions. The most challenging to deliver is direct flexibility in computing workloads. More feasible options include flexibility in supporting systems such as cooling, including thermal storage technologies.

He concludes by highlighting the potential for more flexible power arrangements, including hybrid and off-grid solutions, and requirements to contract dispatchable generation.

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Across the world, governments are grappling with how to secure energy supplies, protect consumers from volatility and accelerate the transition to cleaner, more sustainable independent system, all at the same time.

Energy policy now intersects directly with industrial strategy, cost of living pressures, climate commitments and national security considerations. For citizens and businesses alike, the consequences of inaction or delayed or constrained investment are increasingly tangible.

Northern Ireland is not immune from these global pressures. As a relatively small island power system, with limited local fossil fuel resources, our exposure to global volatility is significant.

At the same time, the transition to a low carbon energy system presents a strategic opportunity if it is planned and delivered in a coordinated, timely and system wide manner.

At SONI, as the independent electricity System Operator for Northern Ireland, our responsibility is twofold: to keep Northern Ireland powered today while planning and building a power system that is fit for the future. That task has never been more important, or more complex.

What the global context means locally

Recent energy price shocks have reinforced the importance of energy security and affordability to economic stability and public confidence. For households, electricity is an essential service. For businesses, it underpins productivity, competitiveness and investment decisions. For government, the electricity system is foundational infrastructure that enables wider policy and societal outcomes.

The energy transition brings many opportunities: cleaner air, green jobs, inward investment, reduced reliance on imported fossil fuels and greater protection against volatile global energy prices. But it also presents practical challenges.

We are moving from a system dominated by a small number of large, predictable power stations to one with high volumes of variable renewable generation, such as wind and solar.

Managing that transition safely and cost effectively requires new infrastructure, new technologies and new ways of planning and operating the system.

SONI’s role in delivering public outcomes

SONI plays a central role in maintaining system reliability while enabling change. As System Operator, we balance electricity supply and demand in real time, manage system risks and plan future network requirements based on robust analysis and long-term forecasting.

Our priorities are firmly aligned with outcomes that matter:

• System security and resilience: Ensuring a reliable electricity supply in the face of growing complexity, climate impacts and changing usage patterns.
• Supporting cleaner energy: Enabling the safe integration of higher volumes of renewable generation while maintaining system stability.
• Value for consumers: Ensuring that investment decisions are efficient, evidence based and deliver long term benefits, minimising avoidable costs and reducing consumers bills over time.

Importantly, efficient system operation and timely infrastructure investment are not competing objectives; they are interdependent. Where strategic investment is delayed, operational costs increase and consumers are exposed to greater long-term risk.

Building momentum with common purpose

At SONI, we recognise that delivering a secure, affordable and sustainable energy system depends on collaboration and shared leadership. That is why we work closely with trusted partners such as the Northern Ireland Chamber of Commerce and the Institute of Directors (IoD) to convene businesses from across different sectors and build momentum around common priorities.

In partnership with the IoD, SONI supported the establishment of an Infrastructure and Investment Forum, providing a platform for business leaders to engage on the barriers to infrastructure delivery and the actions required to unlock long-term investment.

Similarly, working with NI Chamber, SONI helped convene an Energy Taskforce bringing together representatives from a wide range of sectors across Northern Ireland.

The Taskforce recently published a position paper titled Building Momentum with Common Purpose, setting out a series of recommendations, including the need for a long term economic strategy to guide investment and policy prioritisation, and the establishment of an all party working group to build shared political leadership for the energy transition.

These themes closely align with the IoD’s report, Getting Infrastructure Back on Track, which examined the challenges facing infrastructure delivery. The overlap between these recommendations underlines the strength of the consensus across industry and the clear need for coordinated, collective action.

The importance of sustained investment

Much of Northern Ireland’s electricity infrastructure was developed to serve a very different generation mix and demand profile. Meeting future needs, will require significant modernisation and targeted expansion of the grid.

Infrastructure investment decisions made this decade will shape costs, security of supply and emissions outcomes well into the 2040s and beyond. Without appropriate investment today, higher costs and reduced policy optionality risk emerging in the future.

A plan led, whole system approach

Looking ahead, it is increasingly clear that a more plan led approach is essential. This means aligning energy infrastructure planning with wider economic and climate plans under a clear Spatial Plan for Northern Ireland that takes a whole system perspective rather than addressing these critical independent issues in isolation.

Electricity does not operate independently of gas networks, transport systems, digital infrastructure or land use planning. Nor can delivery be achieved by any single organisation acting alone. A whole society approach – involving government, regulators, industry, communities and consumers – is essential.

Crucially, pace matters. Prolonged timescales in decision making, consenting or coordination increase delivery risk and cost. Accelerated, but well governed, action will be necessary to realise the benefits of the energy transition while maintaining public confidence.

Delivering outcomes through collaboration

Northern Ireland has a real opportunity to build a more secure, cleaner and affordable energy system, one that underpins economic growth and supports our climate ambitions. Achieving this will demand leadership, partnership and a willingness to invest for the long term.

At SONI, we are committed to playing our part: providing independent, trusted advice; operating the power system safely and reliably; and working collaboratively to deliver the best outcomes for consumers.

We also recognise that local communities and landowners are central to delivering the energy transition. They already shoulder much of the responsibility for hosting the critical infrastructure needed. At the same time, the wider public through everyday choices and behaviours, have an important role to play.

The choices we make now, matter. Investing in infrastructure, embracing a whole system, whole society approach and acting decisively will help ensure that Northern Ireland’s energy system is an asset, not a constraint, on our future.

Building understanding, trust and momentum will require collaboration across industry, government and society, and a shared commitment to bringing people with us on the journey.

For more information on SONI’s role and our plans for the electricity system, visit:

W: www.soni.ltd.uk

The post Building a resilient energy future for Northern Ireland appeared first on agendaNi.

Ciaran Brennan (CB): How does the Scottish Government approach offshore wind development?

Michelle Quinn (MQ): We are taking a very targeted approach to offshore wind. Two years ago, our First Minister announced that we would allocate £500 million towards the development of offshore wind infrastructure and supply chain. Since then, we have invested around £150 million in a range of interventions from ports to supply chain opportunities. We have allocated £12 million for skills over the next three years, and we have improved the clarity and speed of our planning approach. We have given much greater transparency to planning and the guidance around planning so that we get good planning applications that we can get through the system quickly. The £150 million that we have already invested has been a catalyst for further investment including £70 million from the UK Government institutions and £670 million from the private sector, bringing it up to a total of about £900 million. We believe that this investment will support in the region of 5,000 jobs. For us, that is just very much the beginning.

CB: What opportunities are you aiming to exploit in the short term?

MQ: We are hoping now to continue to build on the early successes of the programme so that it becomes self-sustaining. We are particularly interested in the economic opportunities that will potentially create up to 49,000 jobs, and we are keen to map out what that means for our supply chain companies including securing the long-term sustainability of those companies. It is key for us to look at other markets so that Scotland can build on its strengths but also encourage suppliers from other countries to work in the Scottish market and help to support our ambition of about 40GW of offshore wind deployed in Scottish waters as set out in our offshore wind policy ambition statement. That is a massive ambition for us. We are trying to put all our enabling infrastructure in place to be able to develop our ambition. Not only does that mean investment in supply chain and ports infrastructure, we are also looking at the regulatory changes that we need to be able to support that.

“The thing that has been absolutely essential for us has been commitment to improving the planning system, the flow through the planning system, and the transparency around that.”

CB: What challenges have you encountered?

MQ: The key challenge we have at the moment is global market conditions and increasing interest rates. The cost of capital also poses a real challenge. Neither of these policy areas are devolved to the Scottish Government so, unfortunately, we do not have control of those levers. However, we are working hard to influence others. Transmission charging is a system which was developed many decades ago, before we had renewable sources in mind. We are looking for quite radical changes to that system to reflect the location of renewable sources.

CB: What are some of the lessons that can be learned from Scotland’s success?

MQ: The thing that has been absolutely essential for us has been commitment to improving the planning system, the flow through the planning system, and the transparency around that. The commitment to a £500 million spend over five years to support the sector at a time when it is struggling financially was also crucial. It really indicates the commitment that the Scottish Government is prepared to make and gives a clear partnership signal to the sector. The other thing is that need to create infrastructure just slightly ahead of need because if you wait until such time as you have the demand, it is almost too late to start thinking about building ports and infrastructure development at that stage. Similarly with supply chain. There is something about taking that initial leap of faith and then staying the course. That can be difficult to do when you have an annual budgetary cycle in government, but it is important not just to signal it, but actually to live those words.

The post Developing offshore wind in Scotland appeared first on agendaNi.

Why the markets de-coupled

The SEM is the wholesale electricity market covering both Northern Ireland and the Republic. It was designed to operate as part of the EU’s Internal Energy Market, where ‘market coupling’ plays a key role.

Market coupling links electricity markets across interconnected countries so that prices and electricity flows are set at the same time. This allows electricity to move from lower-cost areas to higher-cost ones, ensuring interconnectors (large cables linking different systems) are used most efficiently.

Before the UK left the EU, both the SEM and GB were part of this shared system. Cross-border trading followed common rules and an algorithm set prices and flows together. This ensured electricity moved in the most efficient way, reducing overall costs.

However, this changed on 1 January 2021. After the UK’s exit from the EU, the SEM and GB were no longer coupled in the day-ahead market. Great Britain left the EU Internal Energy Market, while Northern Ireland remained aligned with it under the Protocol arrangements.

As a result, the SEM now runs its day-ahead market separately. There is currently no direct electricity link between the SEM and mainland Europe, although an interconnector between Cork and France is expected to be operational later in the decade. For now, SEM prices are largely driven by local conditions.

Less efficient trading today

Trading between the SEM and GB still takes place, but in a less effective way. Since 2021, the two markets have only been linked through the intraday market.

The intraday market is much smaller and less active than the day-ahead market. In the SEM, around 80 per cent of electricity is traded day-ahead, while only about 15 per cent is traded intraday. This means most pricing decisions are made without fully reflecting conditions in GB.

This arrangement reflects a compromise between different regulatory systems. While it allows some ongoing trading, it is less efficient than the previous approach because the smaller intraday market cannot deliver the same level of benefit.

Higher electricity prices

Since de-coupling, wholesale electricity prices in the SEM have remained higher than in Great Britain. There are several reasons for this.

GB has a different mix of electricity generation, including nuclear power, which tends to provide stable and relatively lower-cost supply. It is also connected to multiple European markets, allowing it to access cheaper electricity from abroad.

By contrast, the SEM depends more heavily on local gas-fired generation. This makes it more exposed to changes in global gas prices, which can be volatile.

Local factors also play a bigger role. When wind output is low or demand rises, prices in the SEM can increase sharply. Without day-ahead coupling, cheaper electricity from GB cannot fully influence prices at this crucial stage.

At present, wholesale electricity prices on the island of Ireland are roughly 20 per cent higher than in GB. Since wholesale costs make up about half of a typical bill, this difference is significant for consumers.

How re-coupling would lower costs

Re-coupling the SEM and GB markets at the day-ahead stage would help address these issues by allowing prices and cross-border flows to be set together again.

Because GB often has lower prices, this would help bring down average prices in the SEM. It would also ensure that existing interconnection capacity is used more effectively.

The SEM has around 1.5GW of interconnection capacity with GB, more than 20 per cent of peak demand. This means a substantial share of electricity demand in the SEM is supplied by the GB system. Recoupling at the day-ahead stage would ensure that this capacity plays a significant role in SEM price formation, rather than being limited to less influential intraday trading.

Over time, this would reduce wholesale costs, with savings passed on to households and businesses through lower electricity bills.

Reducing volatility

Re-coupling would also improve price stability. Since de-coupling, the SEM has experienced more frequent and sometimes extreme price swings. These fluctuations are mainly driven by changes in wind generation and exposure to gas prices.

A re-coupled system would be better able to share supply across borders, smoothing out local shocks, helping to stabilise prices and reduce volatility.
Better use of interconnectors

SEM’s interconnectors with Great Britain are valuable assets and their efficient use is essential.

Interconnectors deliver the greatest benefit when they connect large, active markets and are fully integrated into price-setting processes. Limiting their role to intraday trading means much of their potential value is not realised.

Re-coupling at the day-ahead stage would allow interconnectors to have a much stronger influence, improving efficiency and maximising their economic benefit.

A practical step with real benefits

Re-coupling is not about redesigning the entire electricity market. It is a practical, targeted step that builds on existing infrastructure and proven market arrangements

By improving efficiency, lowering costs, reducing volatility and making better use of interconnectors, re-coupling offers clear benefits for consumers and the overall electricity industry.

At a time when energy affordability and security are more important than ever, re-coupling the SEM and GB electricity markets is a sensible step forward.

If SEM and GB were to re-couple, there could be up to a 20 per cent reduction in wholesale electricity prices in Northern Ireland. That would be a huge benefit.

E: info@uregni.gov.uk
W: www.uregni.gov.uk

Utility Regulator
Millennium House
Great Victoria Street
Belfast
BT2 7AQ

The post Recouple the SEM and GB electricity markets appeared first on agendaNi.

Duncan Matthews asserts that “hydrogen was the cool kid on the block for a brief period”, but that momentum has been lost. This loss of momentum, he explains, was a key motivation behind his research at University College Cork, where he has explored how we model hydrogen and its potential role in deep decarbonisation scenarios.

Despite this change in sentiment, Matthews emphasises that the underlying case for hydrogen has not disappeared. “Current research points to an important role for hydrogen,” he states, particularly “in the hard to abate sectors in deep decarbonisation scenarios”.

These sectors, where electrification alone is insufficient, remain central to achieving climate targets aligned with limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius or 2 degrees Celsius. Matthews stresses that hydrogen’s relevance in these contexts is consistently identified in global modelling.

He also highlights that hydrogen is already a significant emissions source. “Hydrogen today accounts for about 2 per cent of our current emissions globally,” he says.

“While this may seem small, that is roughly equivalent to the emissions of the aviation industry.”

“The question is not whether hydrogen has been overhyped, but what happens if the wolf shows up.”

The ‘boy who cried wolf’ effect

Hydrogen development has undergone a ‘heap cycle’ model, whereby this there is a technology trigger. “Technologies begin with a technology trigger, followed by a peak of inflated expectations. When these expectations are not met, they fall into a trough of disillusionment before eventually stabilising.”

Contextualising that this has taken place on three occasions, the 1970s, early 2000s, and 2022, Matthews warns of the consequences of this pattern.

“We have had repeated false alarms that have not materialised, and this can be described as the boy who cried wolf effect. As a result, we are going to lose confidence, we are going to lose faith, we are going to lose interest. This is understandable, but it may lead to under-preparation.

“We are still faced with 2 per cent of emissions in the hard to abate sectors. The question is not whether hydrogen has been overhyped, but what happens if the wolf shows up.”

Testing the risk

To explore this, Matthews developed a set of scenarios using energy system modelling at UCC, drawing on projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

The first scenario assumes proactive planning. “We have perfect foresight and, on that basis, we design a system that optimally meets those needs,” he explains.

The second is a reactive approach: “We focus all our efforts on electricity, we kind of forget about hydrogen, and then we tack it on at the end.”

The third scenario reflects growing scepticism. “If we have grown sceptical of you as a technology, you need to do it on your own,” he says, describing a system where hydrogen is prevented from integrating with the power sector.

Higher costs

The results highlight the risks of delayed or restrictive planning. In the reactive scenario, Matthews finds that costs are “about 10 to 14 per cent more expensive”, depending on demand levels. This reflects inefficiencies created when hydrogen infrastructure is added after electricity systems are already fixed.

The isolated scenario produces a much sharper increase. “Very strikingly, refusing to allow electrolysis to couple into the power sector yielded a 33 to 41 per cent more expensive system,” he says.

He explains that this is driven by duplication of infrastructure. “You have got capacity duplication there, particularly in areas such as battery storage, which could otherwise be shared across the system.”

Sector coupling

A significant theme in Matthews’ analysis is the importance of integration between hydrogen and electricity systems. “If we can manage our concerns around upstream emissions and cost impacts, sector coupling can yield a lot of system efficiencies,” he says.

This involves allowing electrolysis (the process used to produce hydrogen from electricity) to interact with the power system. However, Matthews acknowledges that concerns about affordability and emissions are valid. He suggests that the challenge is to address these concerns without blocking integration entirely.

Matthews says that there must be a renewed emphasis on hydrogen development, in spite of current cost challenges and the loss of momentum.

“Negating to proactively plan for it will yield a more expensive system if a significant role does emerge,” he concludes.

The post Reframing hydrogen’s role appeared first on agendaNi.