Wool was last at these levels towards the end of 2008 when it was on its way down from a high of $4 a kilogram at the height of the world commodities boom. Wool exports earned NZ $576 million in the year to March last year and the Agriculture and Forestry Ministry estimated in July 2009 that this year’s export returns would fall to $458m.

However, that was on an estimated average sale price of $3.05 a kg. The price has been steadily rising since the beginning of this year at a time when wool volumes have been high and exporters expect annual returns to once again climb above $500m. Coarse crossbred wool, used in carpets, rugs and textiles, makes up most of this and, up until this week’s combined auction of North and South Island wool at Christchurch and Napier, was climbing in price as manufacturers replenished stocks allowed to deplete during the recession.

However, prices at the auction remained steady or eased slightly, which exporters are taking as a sign of consolidation. “This is very healthy,” Peter Whiteman, managing director of Segard Masurel, said yesterday. “When a market starts to rise people think it’s got to keep going, but to me that it’s stopped going up is healthy. We can bank a few gains, consolidate the gains, get the customers used to them, then the market can go again.”

Demand remained strong, he said. China was the biggest market, taking 30 per cent of the clip for hand and machine knitting and for its growing carpet industry. NZ and Australian carpet mills took 20 per cent, India 10 per cent to 12 per cent for rugs, and other sales were being made to European and Middle East manufacturers.

Mr Whiteman was optimistic more wool than usual would be grown this year. Farmers were holding on to lambs longer as pasture growth continued over the wet summer.

That extra demand would come from developing nations and would outstrip supply, Ms Voss said. “The outlook for Australia and NZ sheep meat and beef is very positive,” she told 300 farmers at the SI High Country committee’s biennial field day in the Nevis Valley. Ms Voss said fluctuating prices had caused a global decline in the supply of sheep meat and beef.

Australian sheep numbers have fallen from 100 million in 2006 to 70 million this year, and United States cattle numbers have reduced in 13 of the past 15 years, partly because of economics. Last year, US feedlot operators lost $NZ140 ($US100) a head. Cow and calf rearers lost $NZ43 ($US30) a head, Ms Voss said.

The market for meat in Europe, the United States and Japan would remain volatile until indicators such as unemployment eased and consumers felt confident enough to start spending again, she said. Demand for meat would come from China, India, Indonesia and Russia and should start later this year, with the economies of developing nations growing about 4%, but China’s expected to grow at 10% this year, she said.

“We think there will be a rise in prices for both sheep meat and beef,” she said. Brazil was expected to become the world’s food basket, but Ms Voss said it was coming under closer environmental scrutiny and did not have the animal technology to continue the production growth achieved in the last decade. While developing markets were seen as having huge potential, Ms Voss said there was a risk they could be volatile.

“That, to me, makes perfect sense,” he said at the Fed Farmers high country committee two-yearly field day in the Nevis Valley last Wednesday. Don Clarke, of Carrick Station, told the field day that he had found grazing of the upright-growing invasive weed, Hieracium lepidulum, could control its spread. Mr Carter repeated his support for the greater use of conservation covenants administered through organisations such as the QEII Trust, saying it was “a sensible” way to achieve biodiversity protection and allow economic use of land.

The Cabinet will soon consider a report which links rents to the income-earning capacity of Crown pastoral lease properties. Mr Carter said the independently peer-reviewed report would now enter the legislative process. He did not see any reason for that process to be delayed.

The new rent-setting methodology was consistent with Government policy of linking rents to the income-earning capacity of a pastoral lease.

Together, the two want to irrigate more than 100,000 hectares of farmland in central and north Canterbury. They involve land acquisition and the construction of canals and a dam. The competition, which drew 18 entries, was the brainchild of University of Canterbury vice- chancellor Dr Rod Carr.

The competition idea, which came out of the Canterbury employment summit last year, is backed by the Canterbury Employers’ Chamber of Commerce and the Canterbury Development Corporation. The projects had to demonstrate the potential to generate $100m of revenue within five years and $1b within 20 years, but needed professional help to develop.

That could include feasibility studies, and legal and financial advice and project management. The promoters of the competition want Canterbury’s water resources developed. Chamber of Commerce chief executive Peter Townsend said: “We spend too much time in Canterbury saying why we can’t do things and not enough time thinking about why we should do them and the consequences that that has for enriching our community.”

Overall, Fonterra suppliers’ national milk production is currently around 2 per cent ahead of last year’s 1.3 billion litres, said Fonterra general manager, milk supply, Tim Deane. But for some North Island dairy farmers hoping to use Fonterra’s projected $6-plus/kg milksolids payout this season to recover from previous drought and last year’s recession-squeezed payout, that overall 1 per cent North Island dip skates over some ugly figures.

In Northland, production is 15 per cent down on last season, which was also a poor production occasion, Mr Deane said. The situation was “fairly dire” after a very dry summer and bad spring weather. “It’s been even worse than last year and last year wasn’t good.” Compared to last year’s milk production, Northland dairy farmers stand to lose around $18 million in potential payout this season, Mr Deane said.

In Fonterra’s biggest milk catchment area, Taupo to south Auckland including Waikato, milk production is falling away because of lack of rain and is currently half a per cent behind the same time last year.

In contrast, South Island production had boomed as land use conversions in Canterbury and Southland kicked into serious production, and new conversions started milking.

Westland Milk Products milk production is 3 per cent ahead of last year’s 44 million/kg milksolids, said chief executive Rod Quin .The increase was a result of recently settled weather after a mixed weather season and accepting 1 per cent extra milk over last year from South Island private company processors Synlait and “other Canterbury processors”, he said.

Their plan is to build assets of $1.8 million within 15 years so they can buy their own farm. They are quietly confident. “We’ve done our planning and we know how to get there,” Elise says. “We know there will be risks but we can manage them.” Their youth is not a factor, they say. “What’s age got to do with it,” Clarence says. “We don’t want to be categorised as ‘young’ sharemilkers, we want to be ‘excellent’ sharemilkers.”

 He finds farming exciting. “In a day, I’m involved with animal husbandry, I’m a pasture manager, a vet, a mechanic and a business manager – all those things. That doesn’t mean I’m an expert – not yet.”However, the judges in the recent Hawke’s Bay-Wairarapa dairy industry awards clearly think he and Elise are well on their way. The couple were praised for their “high level of farm and financial management”, “best-practice initiatives around human resource, animal welfare and the environment” and their “passion for pasture management”.

They say their strength is in the way their skills mesh – his are pasture, animal and people management; hers are in financial management – and they work together on strategies for the season and in planning for the years ahead.

Dr David Stevens, of AgResearch, said it was clear poor winter feeding affected several aspects of production before, during and after lambing, and it was essential for good lamb growth, particularly multiples, to have ewes in good condition. “You’re no longer expecting one lamb and 5 kilograms of wool.”

Most farmers were achieving lambing rates of 130 per cent and some were reaching 160 per cent so losing one BCS during the winter was the equivalent of between 5kg and 7kg of liveweight, he said. Working out a feed schedule and feeding ewes evenly throughout winter would mean they would have higher BCS through winter, giving them a better chance to produce more lambs that were heavier, so they could achieve higher weights at weaning.

The loss of an average of one BCS in the lambing flock could mean between 6 and 10 per cent fewer lambs on the ground, up to 5kg lower lamb weaning weights, and up to 4 per cent more ewe deaths, Dr Stevens said. Ewes in good condition could produce lambs with birth weights up a kilogram, giving lambs the best possible start.

His comments were echoed by farming consultant Graham Butcher, of Rural Solutions, who said creating a full feed budget was simple. Farmers needed to determine on May 1 how much grass there was, what hay, baleage or silage was available, what the winter crop levels were, and consider the growing grass. They also needed to know stock levels and what they would need each day, and then it was simple to work out whether there would be a shortage or extra supply.

“It’s not complicated to work out. You do need to know your kilograms of dry matter, swede yield and paddock sizes to work it out. You also need to know you sheep weights, because they heavier they are, the more they’ll need to maintain that.” Dr Stevens said if the ewes were in good condition at lambing, lambs had a greater chance of going to the works at weaning. “The earlier you can get them away, the more time you have to get the ewes building back up again.”

Lincoln University, New Zealand’s specialist land-based university, is shaping this model in line with two governmental intentions; to drive productivity growth and investment in the export sector and to give young people wider choices in education. This model is one of vertical integration to encompass all aspects of the agricultural and land-based sector provision and supply chain, from secondary school, sub-degree teaching to post-doctoral research, commercialisation and extension activities with industry.

The proposed merger between Lincoln University and Telford Rural Polytechnic complements the existing partnerships the University already has in place.  Lincoln University will continue to enhance its Partnership for Excellence (PFX) relationship with Massey University and relevant industry partners, continue to develop the partnership with AgResearch Ltd that began last year and to develop the relationship with Ngai Tahu.

Telford Rural Polytechnic will also continue to enhance its relationships with other providers and industry partners.

Mrs Bryant was elected with 9620 votes, beating Manawatu farmer Tony Gray (5879) for a seat in which Ron Frew did not seek re-election. The voting return percentage was only 25.25 percent, even though Mr Gray is Federated Farmers’ Manawatu/Rangitikei meat and fibre chairman. During campaigning Mrs Bryant said she was motivated to stand when farmers in her area told Agriculture Minister David Carter that hill country farming was on its last legs.

“If that goes, the whole face of New Zealand agriculture changes,” she said. “Meat and Wool NZ has got the horsepower and resources to hammer that home to the government because I don’t really think they want all our hills planted in trees”.

Mrs Munro of Wairewa Station received 8890 votes to beat incumbent director, David Douglas (7480). The voting return was 38.92 percent. Mrs Munro said in her campaign that the region needed to see democracy in action and Mr Douglas had to be challenged “to give farmers a choice”. “I think David has been there long enough, two terms is all you need to make a difference,” she said.Mrs Munro said she would bring a women’s perspective to the board, as well as a focus on accountability, and an approachable nature.

Both new directors will start their electoral term from the Meat and Wool NZ annual meeting on March 24.Six of the directors are elected by farmers, representing three electorates in the North Island, and three in the South Island. Their terms are for three years, and elections are rotated.

However, milk prices would see most farmers return to cash profitability this year and, if expenditure was controlled, potentialprofits would be comparable to 2007-08, she said. Mrs Moynihan expected milk production to grow 2% this year due to herd expansion, feed supplements and moderate climatic conditions over most of the country.

The beef sector might prefer to forget 2009 due to lacklustre prices as the economic downturn hit New Zealand’s key export markets.”The rising share of manufacturing beef proved a blessing as the world endured the impact of a severe economic downturn and consumers bought cheaper beef cuts.” As a result of the shift in production, the United States now accounted for about 55% of New Zealand’s production, up from 50% in 2008. Mrs Moynihan said beef trade with Russia, the European Union and other “new” destinations had either ceased or diminished in importance.

As economies improved, beef purchases should increase but it would be slow, with a steady recovery in prices rather than a surge.The NZ  beef kill was also expected to fall as the beef cow herd rebuilt, due to an end to drought and few dairy cows culled. “However, the prospect of achieving prices significantly above five-year averages is unlikely without a major depreciation in the NZ dollar.”

The rise in sheep meat prices last year was described by animal proteins senior analyst Wendy Voss as defying the global downturn, reaching levels 26% higher than 2008 and 39% higher than the five-year average.