However, milk prices would see most farmers return to cash profitability this year and, if expenditure was controlled, potentialprofits would be comparable to 2007-08, she said. Mrs Moynihan expected milk production to grow 2% this year due to herd expansion, feed supplements and moderate climatic conditions over most of the country.

The beef sector might prefer to forget 2009 due to lacklustre prices as the economic downturn hit New Zealand’s key export markets.”The rising share of manufacturing beef proved a blessing as the world endured the impact of a severe economic downturn and consumers bought cheaper beef cuts.” As a result of the shift in production, the United States now accounted for about 55% of New Zealand’s production, up from 50% in 2008. Mrs Moynihan said beef trade with Russia, the European Union and other “new” destinations had either ceased or diminished in importance.

As economies improved, beef purchases should increase but it would be slow, with a steady recovery in prices rather than a surge.The NZ  beef kill was also expected to fall as the beef cow herd rebuilt, due to an end to drought and few dairy cows culled. “However, the prospect of achieving prices significantly above five-year averages is unlikely without a major depreciation in the NZ dollar.”

The rise in sheep meat prices last year was described by animal proteins senior analyst Wendy Voss as defying the global downturn, reaching levels 26% higher than 2008 and 39% higher than the five-year average.

The reality was the our farming systems were contributing methane and nitrous oxide into the atmosphere and nitrate pollution of the soil and waterways. “They are not satisfied with slogans such as free-range or pasture-fed. We need to look carefully at our systems overall,” he said. In addition, resources such as phosphate were being depleted and questions were being asked about the efficiency and sustainability of fertiliser use in general.

Stephen Goldson, AgResearch’s chief scientist and the vice-president of the Royal Society of New Zealand, said pastoral agriculture may have reached the technical limits of production. “The question is, business as usual in agriculture? We may not be able to carry on as we have.” Climate change was likely to mean more frequent and more intense droughts, and there would be increased competition from low-cost producers.

Dr Dunbier said one angle scientists were looking at was to increase energy levels in forage to improve quality, reduce greenhouse gases and improve production. There was confidence the technology was available to achieve higher energy levels, but at this stage they were unable to manage protein levels in the rumen. By increasing energy levels in forage, inputs were reduced and animal efficiency increased.

And even in Northland all is not lost. Farmers from further down the island are turning up at stock sales in Wellsford and Kaikohe to buy weaner steers at prices that will help lift sagging spirits. For dairy farmers, the joys of a green summer come mainly from less stress on their cows, although the slightly increased milk they are giving will mean a timely lift in profits in a high payout year. Fonterra reports milk flow is almost 2 per cent up on last year, despite the Northland drought, though a big contributor is the new South Island conversions.

The sheep and beef farmers are seeing the green pastures being devoured by their animals and quickly converted into meat, and enjoying the luxury of being able to choose when to sell their stock. It’s a balancing act. Primarily, they need the animals to keep their pastures from running too quickly to rough and spoiling the quality needed later in the year. Chewing down to the bottom of the green shoots keeps the grass at its most nutritious. Let it get too long and coarse and it has less goodness and is harder to digest.

As winter approaches, grass growth will slow and the lambs will have to go. The trick is to keep them long enough to make the best use of their grazing abilities and to sell them when the price is right. Wait too long and sell when there’s a glut, and the difference could be thousands of dollars. All this has not been good for the meat industry. With lambs being held back, some meatworks have severely cut working hours. Across both islands, more than half of the kill still has to appear. The companies are bracing themselves for a rush after Easter.

Those farmers who suffered from drought are still recovering. The luxuriant feed will ensure ewes go to the ram this autumn in excellent condition and, fingers crossed for a kind spring, lamb birth rates will be high. But the east coasters don’t have big flocks to draw on. Many were forced to cut deep into their mobs of replacement lambs to survive last year and now, when they have the grass to spare, tough credit restrictions by their banks are keeping them from finding new blood at the stock sales.

Textiles New Zealand chief executive Elizabeth Tennet said there was the potential to increase the annual harvest from 1.7 million animals to more than 3 million – a move that would double the industry’s annual revenue to $200 million. The fur market was growing, both domestically and overseas, where possum fur was becoming more popular, she said.

About 40 per cent of New Zealand’s possum fur harvest goes to China. Tennet said about 45 million possums remained in New Zealand, and Kiwi-made possum products were popular with tourists visiting the country. Snowy Peak chief executive Peri Drysdale, whose company has been a pioneer of the merino-possum blend, said there were occasional shortages of the fur.

“It comes and goes … . there’s big chunks of time where we are all anxiously wondering if there will be enough [possum fur] for tomorrow and the next day, and then there’s periods of time when there’s more than we know what to do with.” Drysdale said there was a problem with the health board – which kills possums to control the spread of bovine tuberculosis – and DoC poisoning animals that were not collected and went to waste.

Steve Boot, co-director of Basically Bush, an East Coast company that buys possum furs and skins from harvesters, said DoC had entered into the dialogue with Textiles New Zealand because of budget cuts. In last year’s Budget, the department was forced to shave $54 million from its spending over the next four years, meaning planned possum control on 23,000ha of land would not go ahead.

He said the abundant grass was affecting the flow of lambs from both store suppliers and finishers. There had been a noticeable increase in kill numbers in the past week, he said, and as autumn and winter drew near, farmers would be keen to quit their stock.”We do know stock will come over a period of time, but the risk associated with that is the influx of stock will not be in sync with markeplace requirements. It creates a production-driven model.”

There was also a risk supply would outstrip demand, putting pressure on prices, he said.Meat and Wool New Zealand estimates this year’s total lamb crop will be 1.7 million higher than last year at 23.5 million. It estimates the number of lambs available for export markets will be 1 million, or 4.4%, higher than last year.

Despite being the youngest in the field, the Te Aute College old-boy was among the favourites after winning six open titles during the summer, including the Otago championship and South Island Shearer of the year finals last months. The triumph, which includes one of two places in the New Zealand machine shearing championships in Wales in July, was shared by family including partner Teresa, who won her first shearing title on the same day as he won his first open title at Pukekohe three seasons ago.

It was not his first win on shearing’s most famous stage, for he won the senior title in 2004 and last year, having just missed out on repeating a semi-final place he achieved a year earlier, he won the Maori-Pakeha teams event with Wairoa shearer Bart Hadfield.

Tonight he was first finished in a dramatic race, taking 16min 36.353sec, nine seconds ahead of 12-times win-less finalist Dean Ball, of Te Kuiti, as just six seconds separated the second to fifth finished, only Southlander Nathan Stratford falling off the pace, but still finishing in 17min 20.286sec.

Ultimately it was a Hawke’s Bay quinella as early favourite and 2002 and 2008 champion John Kirkpatrick, of Napier, claimed second place. Fagan was third.

“There were a number of red flags associated with the supposed purchaser too. It included reported claims from late last year that the Northland hapu involved had genealogical connections to its Arab partner ‘that went back to biblical times’. “While Federated Farmers backs moves to bring professional standards of conduct to the real estate industry, a failure to do some cursory checks is of concern.

“Given the deals involved very large sums of money, it seems very odd that little was done to verify if the purchaser had the financial means to legally complete. If someone walked through my door saying they had upwards of $150 million to buy a number of farms, I’d check to see if they were on the level. “These days, real estate agents are required to act in good faith and deal fairly with all parties engaged in a transaction. In addition, real estate agents must not mislead, provide false information or withhold information from the parties involved.

“That indicates to me a professional obligation to ascertain the veracity of a purchaser, so operating on hope doesn’t cut the mustard.”Real estate agents must do more groundwork in future otherwise they risk failing another professional standard, that of bringing the real estate industry into disrepute,” Mr Rose concluded.

“In our conversations it became clear that these people are concerned and stressed about potential regulation and changes in policy,” Botha said. Farmers worried for their livelihood experienced shock, denial, anger and fear, he said, which could lead to drinking, increasing isolation and aggression. Unchecked, it could also lead to depression and, in a worst-case scenario, suicide.

AgResearch is applying for funding for another study on how farmers deal with stressful events, and ways of helping them cope. Neil Bateup, a dairy farmer at Ohinewai, North Waikato, for 38 years, said the fear of being exposed as a polluter was an added pressure.

“There’s been a raft of bad press around a few individuals who haven’t played the game right, but I think the majority of farmers try to do their best.” He said farmers were used to dealing with events beyond their control, but too many stressful events at once could push people over the edge.

His solution is to replace the kanuka with red alder, oak and plane trees. They will still provide shade, but with pruning it will be dappled to let sun in to keep grass growing and the sheep shifting throughout the day. In winter, they will lose their leaves and allow sunlight onto the pasture beneath.

“Natives aren’t the only answer,” he says. “This way, I get back pasture that has been taken out of production and keep nutrients on the farm rather than losing them in the waterways.” Mr Martin, 36, who works with parents Gerald and Sue on Glenlands, their 242-hectare hill country farm in the Esk Valley just out of Napier, doesn’t go along with the prevailing view that native trees are always best. He has planted hundreds of trees every year since 1997. Most are natives, but included among them are oaks, planes, hazels, walnuts, eucalypts, cypresses, pines, a variety of fruit trees and the osage orange, the tree American Indians made their bows from.

He started by trying to reduce the possum population. He used up to 300 kilograms of brodifacoum poison in a 1ha native block, but made little inroad till the regional council introduced a community-wide scheme. This was later taken over by the Animal Health Board when some neighbouring cattle reacted to tuberculosis testing. He supplemented that with cyanide paste and now hardly ever sees a possum.

“All of a sudden, we’ve had lots of new growth in the bush, especially the whiteywood and five-finger, and bird numbers are growing again. I remember as a kid seeing flocks of 40-50 waxeyes in the poroporo before they dropped to ones and twos, but now it’s back to 20 at a time.”

They say it seems clear that the financial performance of a new generation co-operative needs to be very strong to support the price of a restricted share close to asset backing. The report shows that share price premiums/discounts over asset backing are quite variable between companies and for the same company over time.