CALM WEATHER: A peek at radar around 3:00 this afternoon showers few showers over the northern half of the state; it is raining over parts of Tuscaloosa and Pickens Counties in West Alabama, but even there the showers are small and isolated. Otherwise, we have a partly sunny afternoon with temperatures generally in the 80 to 85 degree range. Muscle Shoals is the warmest spot as I write this with 86 degrees.

TOMORROW AND FRIDAY: Both the NAM and the GFS are printing a high of 87 tomorrow for Birmingham, with little if any chance of rain. No serious change on Friday; the high will be in the mid 80s with only isolated afternoon showers.

WARM WEEKEND: Highs stay in the 80s over the weekend with partly sunny days and fair nights. We will probably see a few isolated showers both afternoons, but most neighborhoods will stay dry thanks to an upper ridge overhead.

The weather looks pretty benign through the end of May with no serious severe weather or heavy rain issues showing up in medium range guidance.

AT THE BEACH: Expect mostly sunny warm days and fair nights in the area from Panama City west to Gulf Shores through the weekend. An isolated shower might pop up in a few spots, but mostly dry weather is the story with daily highs in the low 80s. Very nice for the Hangout Music Festival in Gulf Shores this weekend. The sea water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab this afternoon is 81 degrees.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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I enjoyed being at Alabama Power Company’s corporate HQ in downtown Birmingham this morning… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

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CALM WEATHER: A rather benign weather pattern will continue across Alabama and the Deep South through the rest of the week and the weekend. The air is a little drier this morning, and we see no showers on radar as the sun is coming up. The sky will be partly to mostly sunny today with a high in the mid 80s, and I honestly don’t think we will see anything on radar this afternoon thanks to the drying.

TOMORROW AND FRIDAY: No real change… expect mid to upper 80s both days with a decent amount of sunshine. Any afternoon showers will be few and far between due to drier air and warm air aloft.

OUR WEEKEND: Persistence is the best forecast here… warm days, fair nights, and only isolated afternoon showers. The sky will be partly sunny Saturday and Sunday with a high in the low to mid 80s. The primary storm track remains well to the north of Alabama keeping our weather pattern nice and calm.

STICK A FORK IN IT: I think it is safe to say our spring tornado season is just about over, as the medium range computer models show no significant severe weather setup for Alabama through the end of May. This is the time of the year when we make the transition from tornado threats, to afternoon storms on hot summer days with potential for wet microbursts, or local areas of damaging straight line winds. Tornadoes in Alabama are very rare during June, July, and August unless a tropical storm or hurricane gets involved.

TROPICAL NOTE: The formation of Tropical Storm Aletta yesterday in the eastern Pacific ends a 41-day streak without a tropical storm anywhere in the world. According to the U.K. Met Office, the 41-day period is the longest span without a tropical storm in at least 70 years. The last time there were as many as 38 consecutive storm-less days was in 1944. Prior to Aletta, the last tropical storm on the planet was Tropical Storm Daphne in the South Pacific, which dissipated April 3, 2012. (April is usually is the quietest month globally for tropical cyclones.)

The Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico hurricane season kicks off on June 1, the first named storm this year will be called “Alberto”.

AT THE BEACH: Expect mostly sunny warm days and fair nights in the area from Panama City west to Gulf Shores through the weekend. An isolated shower might pop up in a few spots, but mostly dry weather is the story with daily highs in the low 80s. Very nice for the Hangout Music Festival in Gulf Shores this weekend. The sea water temperature this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 80 degrees.

See the Weather Xtreme video for graphics and details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I will be at Alabama Power this morning doing a severe weather safety program… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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A WARMER AFTERNOON: Temperatures are mostly in the 78 to 82 degree range at 3:00 this afternoon with a mix of sun and clouds across the great state of Alabama. A few widely scattered showers are on radar over East Alabama, but they are few and far between and will fade away once the sun goes down.

REST OF THE WEEK: No real change in our forecast thinking. The weather looks warm and mostly dry tomorrow through Friday, with highs in the mid 80s (maybe upper 80s Thursday), with partly sunny days and fair nights. A shower or two could form each afternoon, but they will be very hard to find, and the chance of any one front yard getting wet is only 10 percent or so. Not really worth mentioning in the forecast.

WEEKEND PREVIEW: Looks like there will be enough moisture for the standard mention of “widely scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms”, otherwise the weekend looks warm and mostly dry with highs remaining in the low to mid 80s as our calm weather pattern continues.

AT THE BEACH: Nice weather from Panama City west to Gulf Shores through the weekend with about 10 hours of sun each day; a brief isolated shower is not totally out of the question, but rain won’t be a big issue. Highs will be in the low 80s, and the water temperature this afternoon at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 80 degrees. Very nice weekend for the Hangout Music Festival in Gulf Shores.

LONG RANGE: Still no sign of any severe weather threat for Alabama through the end of May as the primary storm track across North America stays to the north as we continue to slip into our summer pattern. See the Weather Xtreme video for graphics and details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on this week’s new episode.

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I had a great time today visiting with the kids at Montessori School of Douglas County just west of Atlanta… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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BACK TO THE 80s: Birmingham’s official high yesterday was only 69 degrees, 12 below average, thanks to persistent clouds that were hanging over the city. Most other places around here had a high in the 70s. We expect a warmer day today with a high in the low 80s; once the morning fog burns off the day should feature a mix of sun and clouds. A few isolated showers could pop up this afternoon, but like yesterday they will be few and far between, and most places will stay dry.

REST OF THE WEEK: A warm, calm period of weather is expected with partly sunny, warm days and fair highs. There might be a blip or two on radar along the way during the afternoon and evening hours, but the risk of rain is so small we won’t mention it in our forecast for now. Highs will be in the mid 80s, just slightly above average for mid May in Alabama.

WEEKEND: Pretty much the same story. Mostly dry and warm with highs in the 80s; the chance of any one spot getting an afternoon shower is only in the 10 percent range, just too small to mention in the forecast for now. A nice, calm weather pattern.

AT THE BEACH: Great weather is ahead for the Gulf Coast from Panama City west to Gulf Shores through the weekend, with mostly sunny days and fair nights. A few isolated showers are possible today, but the rest of the week and the weekend should be dry. The weather doesn’t get much better for the Hangout Music Festival in Gulf Shores this weekend. The sea water temperatures are generally in the upper 70s.

RAIN UPDATE: Birmingham’s rain total for the year is now 19.44?, and the deficiency for the year is 1.81?. Tuscaloosa’s deficit for the year is only 0.62?, but Anniston is drier as they need 4.20? to get back to average values.

LONG RANGE: Still no sign of any real severe weather setup for Alabama through the rest of May and the spring tornado season. See the Weather Xtreme video for details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on this week’s new episode…

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I will be doing a weather program over in Douglasville, GA this morning… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is Keith Stammer, the Emergency Manager for Jasper County, Missouri. He will be discussing the tornado that devastated his community last May 22nd.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

• J. B. and Brian take the week off
• An attempt at a video conference using Google Hangout didn’t quite go as planned!
• A recent tornado warning in Columbia, SC is largely ignored in rural areas
• Aletta becomes the first tropical storm in the Eastern Pacific
• Wireless Emergency Alert System discussion
• and more!

Our mail bag has been getting some attention and Kevin puts it in perspective.

From The Weather Center:

WeatherBrains 101: Last week we discussed some of the characteristics involved in thunderstorms that produce hail. This week we take a look at the process of hail growth in thunderstorms.

TWIWH: Bill Murray looks back at the week of May 15th.

Listener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

Web Sites from Episode 329:    

www.audible.com

http://lepc.jaspercounty.org/

Picks of the Week:

Bill Murray –  Grand Isle, LA Tornado Video  

Kevin Selle –  Gets the horn!

James Spann –  RAP Computer Model output

JP Spann –  http://www.youtube.com/user/wxrenny

The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like J.P. Spann, Kevin Selle, and Bill Murray. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

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Live video from your iPhone using Ustream

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SUN AND CLOUDS: Visible satellite images show a hodgepodge of cloud cover across the great state of Alabama this afternoon. Some communities are enjoying a good supply of sunshine, but for a few places across North-Central Alabama the clouds have been hanging tough all day. Radar shows a few widely scattered showers over the Tennessee Valley of extreme North Alabama, but the rest of the state is dry.

TOMORROW: Not much change; a weak upper trough will still be overhead, so a few widely scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms are possible, but much of the state will be dry with a mix of sun and clouds and a high in the low 80s.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: Our weather will be generally dry and warm, with partly sunny days and highs in the mid 80s. There will actually be enough moisture for a few isolated showers each afternoon, but the chance of any one spot getting wet is only in the 10 percent range, not really enough to mention in the forecast for now.

WARM WEEKEND: Pretty much the same story for the weekend. Partly to mostly sunny Saturday and Sunday with a high in the mid 80s; the risk of a shower for any one given location will remain pretty tiny thanks to an upper ridge overhead. Nice, quiet weather for mid-May in Alabama.

AT THE BEACH: A few scattered showers are possible on the Central Gulf Coast tomorrow, but the weather looks great Wednesday through the weekend with sunny days, fair nights, and highs in the low 80s. Couldn’t ask for better weather for this weekend’s Hangout Music Festival in Gulf Shores. The sea water temperature this afternoon at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab was 78 degrees.

NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: Things looks quiet early next week, and quite frankly we don’t see any major storminess or severe weather threat here for the rest of May. See the Weather Xtreme video for details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Keith Stammer, Joplin, MO Emergency Manager, will be our guest as we look back at the Joplin tornado disaster fro 2011. We will record the show tonight at 8:30 p.m… this week we will go video with a Google Hangout. We will post the live video/audio stream here on the blog.

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I had a great time today visiting with the second graders at Center Point Elementary School…. as you know they lost their building to a tornado on January 23… they are meeting for now in the old Erwin Elementary location just down the street. Be sure and look for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News… the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted early tomorrow by 7:00 a.m…..

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The sky has cleared over West Alabama this afternoon…. look for slow clearing to the east over the next few hours. A few widely scattered showers could pop up this afternoon, but we don’t expect anything widespread. Scroll down for the full morning discussion.

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After all, most areas needed rain, especially in Southeast Alabama where a number of counties had already started with a significant drought–even an extreme one in several counties.

We had projected widespread significant amounts for much of the state over the next three days (Friday-Saturday-Sunday) with over three inches in some places. Most areas did not get that amount as the storm system partially broke up into three active segments.

Can’t say that it was a total bust but it proves again that Mother Nature is smarter than Father Time–at least most of the time. But there were a number of locations that received over three inches. Not bad. Not bad!

Here is a sample of amounts just for the last 24 hours ending at 7 this morning:

0.40 West Trussville

0.64 Anniston Airport

1.51 Birmingham Airport

0.48 Calera

0.19 Dothan

0.03 Evergreen

0.28 Muscle Shoals

0.44 Hanceville

1.93 Troy

0.12 Tuscaloosa

0.63 Selma

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THIS MORNING: We have some patch dense fog across Alabama this morning… otherwise we begin the day with low clouds along with temperatures in the 60s.

Low clouds should give way to a partly sunny sky by midday, and there is enough moisture remaining for a few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. The rain won’t be as widespread or as heavy as what we saw over the weekend; the chance of any one spot getting wet later today is only about one in five. The high this afternoon should be in the mid to upper 70s.

TOMORROW: No real change; we won’t have much in the way of dynamic lift, but there will be enough moisture and instability for a few widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. We warm up a bit with a high at or just over 80 degrees, which is where we should be this time of the year (the average high now is up to 81 degrees).

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: These days look generally dry and warm. I guess there might be a small shower somewhere on radar during the afternoon hours on one of these days, but with upper ridging building, it sure looks mostly rain-free. Afternoon highs move up into the mid 80s.

WEEKEND PREVIEW: Generally sunny and warm weather should continue across Alabama and much of the Deep South with highs in the mid 80s. See no reason to mention any significant risk of showers for now as the upper ridge will be overhead.

AT THE BEACH: A few scattered showers or storms could pop up later today or tomorrow, but the weather on the Gulf Coast from Panama City west to Gulf Shores looks great Wednesday through the weekend with sunny days and fair nights. Highs will be in the low 80s, and the sea water temperature this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 77 degrees. Weather couldn’t be better for the Hangout Music Festival in Gulf Shores this weekend.

IN THE TROPICS: While the Atlantic/Gulf hurricane season doesn’t begin until June 1, the Eastern Pacific season has started, and a disturbance off the Mexican coast has a chance of becoming the first East Pacific tropical storm of the season. See the Weather Xtreme video for details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will record this week’s show tonight at 8:30….

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I will be doing a weather program this morning at Center Point Elementary School… you might recall these kids lost their school building to the January 23 EF-3 tornado… they are in a temporary location, but doing just fine there. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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