Alaris

Alaris Morning Comments (4)

Monday, July 06, 2009

July 6, 2009

Previous Trading Day

Thursday was the worst day ever for a pre 4th of July trading day. The Dow fell 2.6 and S&P fell 2.9%. The culprit was the jobs data. The S&P 500 is back to about flat on the year now. Trades will look ahead to another week of supply as the U.S. will auction $73billion in Treasuries this week (not counting the weekly bill auctions).

This Morning’s Headlines

- Volatile Swings in Price of Oil Stir Fears on Recovery (NYT)
- India to Boost Spending to Spur Growth (NYT)
- GM Asset Sale Gets Judge’s Nod (WSJ)
- Rio to Raise $1.2 Billion in Sales (WSJ)
- G8 shifts focus from food aid to farming (FT)
- Opportunistic Wall Street gears up to trade in California IOUs (FT)
- Biggest VIX drop hides options Bets S&P 500 will fall (BBRG)

From our trading desk

Asian and European stock markets sank Monday, undermined by investor anxiety that quarterly company earnings will be weaker than expected. In the U.S., futures pointing lower as many traders are worried about the Treasury auctions this week. Current rates are much lower than last week with the 10yr trading around 3.5% down in yield from the 4% level at the last auctions. Concern of the recovery faltering will help distribute treasuries but will be a negative factor for equities. Joe Biden comments this weekend that the Obama camp “misread” the economy will also weigh on stocks. Technically, the S&P should trade in a range between 881 the 200 DMA and 910 the corresponding 200 DMA for the Dow. One positive note for contrarians is that most headlines are bearish. Example being Barron’s cover of Stocks to Short.

Alaris Morning Comments (3)

Wednesday, July 01, 2009

July 1, 2009

Previous Trading Day

Stocks ended lower, as weak economic data weighed on the broader market. June's Consumer Confidence report was the main culprit as it came in at 49.3, below the Street estimate of 55.3. Economists were particularly worried that the index fell below the 50 mark. A reading above 50 signals an expanding optimism among U.S. consumers. Volume was extremely low as the second quarter came to a close and investors sat on the sidelines happy with the returns form the quarter. The S&P ended up 15% for Q2 making it the biggest quarterly advance since 1998. The VIX rose 4.2%, rising for the first time in six days as investors wonder what’s going to happen next.

This Morning’s Headlines

-Citi raises card rates ahead of new rules (FT)
- Morgan Stanley and MUFG in joint push (FT)
- Wall Street Cut Lobbying at Key Time (WSJ)
- Chinese Delay Plan For Censor Software (WSJ)
- Many With Insurance Still Bankrupted by Health Crises (NYT)
- FDIC Takeover Rules May Force Private Equity Firms to Put Up More Capital (BBRG)

From our trading desk

The Nikkei ended down 18.51 or .19%, the Hang Seng index closed for holiday and Shanghai closed up 48.79 or 1.65%. Asia ended mixed with Nikkei falling on concern share sales will dilute the holdings of equity investors and falling commodities prices drove resource producers lower. The Shanghai indexes traded higher as China’s manufacturing expands for 4th month on stimulus and record bank lending. In London the FTSE is currently up 53 lead by mining shares.
ADP estimates 473k payroll cuts in June, number about 100k worse then expected. Estimates for tomorrow’s Non Farm payroll number will be revised. Futures still pointing to a higher open although have traded off highs. Historically during the first couple of days of a new quarter, markets tend to have a positive bias. With the ADP data behind us, traders will stay within the range formed by technicals. S&P looking at 914 the 30-DMA as a pivot point. With 930 highs as resistance and the support coming in the 900-910 range. Not expecting any major move today prior but if the S&P break either the resistance or support level, major resistance above would come at 950 and major support at 885.

Alaris Morning Comments (2)

Tuesday, June 30, 2009

June 30, 2009

Previous Trading Day

Steve Jobs returns to work and Madoff gets 150 years sentence were the two big headlines yesterday. In the background, equities were able to quietly post gains across the board. Higher oil prices boosted energy shares, and signs of life in overseas markets renewed investor optimism about the prospects for an economic recovery. All sectors ended higher led by consumer discretionary, utilities and basic materials. Managers were also making some last minute “window dressing” moves to their portfolio before sending out 2Q statements. Overall volume was light as this is a big holiday week. Interestingly enough the U.S. 10year note ended up 12/32 for a yield of 3.48%, in front of the refunding announcement and employment report due Thursday.

This Morning’s Headlines

- JPMorgan winds down fund (FT)
- GM quits US assembly plant joint venture with Toyota (FT)
- VIX’s Drop to Below Lehman Bankruptcy Level Leaves ‘Wall of Worry’ Intact (BBRG)
- BP, CNPC Beat Exxon Mobil to Win First Contract in Iraq Oil Field Auction (BBRG)
- Jury Orders Abbott to Pay J&J $1.67 Billion in Patent Case (WSJ)
- Wall Street Firms to Log Best Quarter Since Crisis (WSJ)
- Hedge fund returns are up, redemption down (Reuters)

From our trading desk

The Nikkei ended up 174.97 or 1.79%, the Hang Seng index closed down 149.78 or .81% and Shanghai closed down 15.95 or .54%. Asia ended mixed with Nikkei gaining on commodity and electronics rally. Hang Seng and Shanghai indexes traded lower on statements form HSBC’s Chairman Green saying financial crisis was far form over. In London the FTSE is currently down 11.35 or .26% as the U.K. GDP fell 2.4% more then economists had expected.
Futures pointing to a higher open in the U.S. as the quarter comes to a close. Traders looking for continuing light volume as we they set up for Thursday’s employment report. But before that, investors will get a reading on consumer confidence. After big jumps in April and May, a reading on consumer sentiment in June is expected to show that Americans' mood is little improved. This could give the market the spark needed to finish the quarter with a positive tone.

Alaris Morning Comments (1)

Monday, June 29, 2009

June 29, 2009

Previous Trading Day

Markets closed mixed on large volume with the rebalancing of the Russell was the catalyst.

This Morning’s Headlines

- Paper Avalanche Buries Plan to Stem Foreclosures (NYT)
- Madoff to Learn Fate Today (WSJ)
- Boeing Feels New Pressure to Placate Its 787 Buyers (WSJ)
- JPMorgan Tightens Grip on Equity Underwriting Market by Selling Own Shares (BBRG)

From our trading desk

The Nikkei ended down 93.92 or .95%, the Hang Seng index closed down 71.75 or .39% and Shanghai closed up 47.1or 1.61%. Asian stocks slumped in afternoon trading on the concern that equity sales by Daiwa Securities Group Inc. and Mizuho Financial Group Inc. will dilute shareholder value. The Shanghai traded higher as China signs an agreement with Hong Kong to allow trade settlement using Yuan. London the FTSE is up 36.43 or .86% as economic confidence in the region climbed to the highest in seven months.

U.S. futures pointing to a higher opening as higher oil prices lifts energy producers. Expecting a volatile week as the shorten holiday week has many traders taking vacation. Thursday will be the most interesting day with the release of the payroll numbers for June.

Alaris Morning Comments

Friday, June 26, 2009

June 26, 2009

Previous Trading Day

Markets opened lower on a negative jobless claim report. But stocks quickly shrugged off the bad news and finished up ~2% on day with consumer and housing stocks led the way. Lennar was one of the catalyst, reporting a 63% increase in orders form the 1st quarter. On the consumer side Bed Bath & Beyond gave a positive tone after its earnings topped analysts’ expectations. Also the quarter’s end brought some additional buying, of the best performing stocks of this quarter, as funds participate in some window dressing. Treasuries prices rose and yields fell to the lowest levels in three weeks with the 7yr auction drewing higher than expected demand. Indirect bidders, the class of investors that include foreign central banks, purchased 67% of the auctions.

This Morning’s Headlines

- Bernanke defends Fed’s role on Merrill (FT)
- Qantas Scraps Orders for Boeing Planes (NYT)
- Japan Slaps Sanctions on Citibank (NYT)
- Inflation – the real threat to sustained recovery OPT Greenspan (FT)
- Retailers Cut Back on Variety (WSJ)
- Big Oil’s Answer to Carbon Law May Be to Boost Imports, Idle Refineries (BBRG)
- Boeing Delay Upends Plans of Leasing Firms (WSJ)
- China Calls for World Reserve Currency, Says IMF Should Manage Some Funds (BBRG)

From our trading desk

The Nikkei ended up 81.31 or .83%, the Hang Seng index closed up 325.23 or 1.78 and Shanghai closed up 3.17 or .11%. Stocks rose as Bridgestone Corp. narrowed its loss forecast.
In London the FTSE is up 10.30 or .24% Led by mining and oil companies..

U.S. personal incomes jumped 1.4% in May due to a 1-time $250 payment to Social Security beneficiaries as part of the stimulus program. Today’s session will also feature the Univ of Mich consumer confidence gauge for June and Dallas Fed Pres Fisher speaking in the afternoon. Traders have one eye on the dollar as China calls for world reserve currency. Meanwhile Congress start debating the Cap and Trade bill.

Alaris Morning Comments

Thursday, June 25, 2009

June 25, 2009

Previous Trading Day

Yesterday started on a positive note with the release of durable goods orders with an unexpectedly jump for May. This was seen as a sign companies are gaining confidence the recession is easing. Equity markets traded up to the highs of the day despite statements from Warren Buffet saying that he has trouble seeing ‘green shoots’ and that the economy has more hard times ahead. Equities traded off the highs once the FOMC statement was released. Treasuries fell and yields climbed as the Fed refrained from increasing its $1.75 trillion bond-purchase program. The Fed also stated that the economy is still a bit away form fueling inflation.

This Morning’s Headlines

- Money market funds face curbs (FT)
- G.O.P. to Paint Bernanke as Big Government Ally (NYT)
- BP Names Ericsson Chief as Its Chairman (NYT)
- Sinopec Agree to $7.2 Billion Deal (WSJ)
- KKR Stock Is Coming, via Europe (WSJ)
- AIG to Cut Debt to New York Fed by $25 Billion, Transfer Life Unit Shares (BBRG)
- Banks rush to rescue credit card trusts in wake of record defaults (FT)

From our trading desk

The Nikkei ended up 205.76 or 2.15%, the Hang Seng index closed up 382.88 or 2.14% and Shanghai closed up 2.75 or .09%. Stocks gained on FOMC statement and South Korea raised its GDP forecast.
In London the FTSE is 33.45 or .78% as IMF said banks in Ireland face losses of as much as $49 billion through 2010.

Futures are pointing to a lower open after this morning’s jobless claims showed the number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits rose 15k to 627k. Continuing claims also rose for the week, jumping by 29k to 6,728,000. Overall the report showed the jobs market remains in poor health.

Traders will focus on the 27Bln of 7yr U.S. Treasury notes that will be auctioned at 1pm. The street will be looking at the number of indirect bidders. So far this week both the 2yr and 5yr auctions were strongly bid by oversea (China) investors. Traders hope that yesterday’s FOMC statement did not dampen demand.

Trader Talk 4/30/2009

Thursday, April 30, 2009

Let me first take a moment to thank Todd and those at Minyanville for all their efforts and their dedication to a greater cause than most can imagine. I'm flattered to have been offered the opportunity to be a part of something that will forever change the landscape of financial education and information. I always figured there would be a time when I'd have the opportunity to “pay it forward.” However, I must admit that I never imagined it would manifest itself quite this way.

The Emerging Connection

Thursday, January 22, 2009

A Message from the CEO

Whilst our industry suffers from one the worst crisis in living memory, the highly experienced Opus management team understands the importance of stability and provision of a safe harbor through troubled times.

The New World of Hedge Fund Asset Raising

Wednesday, January 21, 2009

The right pedigree, strategy or track record is no longer a guaranteed recipe for success in the raising or retaining of assets.

By Gary Mair Fund Advisor, LLC

Launching a Hedge Fund

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Investment Law Group of Gillett Walker, LLP
Key Structural and Operational Issues:

What sort of legal structure should be used?

Most domestic hedge funds are organized as limited partnerships with the management company organized as a limited liability company. Additional entities may be needed for certain tax purposes. Read more...

Hedge Fund Strategies Differ

Wednesday, April 02, 2008

As each hedge fund strategy is different and offers varying returns and yields, the overall success of hedge fund strategies can largely depend on the user and on the timing and conditions of the market, which makes it difficult to make a definitive statement about which are the best strategies to follow. Read more...

New Office Location

Friday, June 22, 2007

Alaris Trading Partners New San Diego Office Location

Alaris

Alaris Morning Comments (4)

Alaris Morning Comments (3)

Alaris Morning Comments (2)

Alaris Morning Comments (1)

Alaris Morning Comments

Alaris Morning Comments

Trader Talk 4/30/2009

The Emerging Connection

The New World of Hedge Fund Asset Raising

Launching a Hedge Fund

Investment Law Group of Gillett Walker, LLPKey Structural and Operational Issues:

What sort of legal structure should be used?

Hedge Fund Strategies Differ

New Office Location

Investment Law Group of Gillett Walker, LLP
Key Structural and Operational Issues: