Lately I’ve been receiving a lot more emails and tweets thanking me for my blog posts and contributions to the stream. I don’t get to respond to all of them unfortunately, so I wanted to take this time to really thank all of you guys for your support and comments. It really means a lot to me.

The truth is that my blog posts and tweets are the least I can do. All I’m really doing is trying my best to give back the greatest community of market participants this world has ever seen. Through social communities like StockTwits, I am able to consume and learn so much more than I can ever contribute. It’s not even close.

So for the first time ever, I’m taking charting requests from readers and twitter followers. Email me, ping me, tweet at me, direct message me, text me, or any of the other various forms of communication that we have at our disposal. I’ll post a video this weekend with in depth analysis of anything you guys want me to look at: stocks, commodities, currencies, pairs, whatever. I’ve never done this before so I’m not sure how it will all come out. But there’s only one way to find out.

I appreciate all the recent emails and tweets, but the real thank you goes to you guys. So if I can take a look at some charts for you, then that’s just a little bit more that I can contribute to the awesome network that we’ve all built together over the years. Let’s all try to keep up the good work. We’re all learning every day from each other and that’s awesome. No one ever in human history has had this much access to such great minds. Let’s not take that for granted and let’s appreciate every day that we have together.

Anything but $AAPL and $SPX please….let’s try to be a little bit more creative!

The post No, Thank YOU appeared first on All Star Charts.

Once we broke above 1600 earlier this month, the next upside targets were 1635 and 1660. These were just theoretical targets at the time, based on fibonacci extensions and measured move projections. But then the market spoke and reacted to those prices confirming their importance. So those former resistance levels are now support. After 1660 broke on Wednesday, the 1635 held as support on Thursday. If that breaks, then we should probably see 1600 pretty quickly.

After that things start to get hairy. That 1575 definitely comes into play based on former fibonacci retracements and some support & resistance that we saw at that price. But more importantly, you’re flirting with uptrend lines at that point. And not just any uptrend line, but THE uptrend line from the November lows.

To the upside, S&Ps never reached that next 261.8% extension. That’s not good news. But not the end of the world I suppose. I hate to say that this thing is probably all over below that 1540 level that was support throughout March and April, but it’s kind of true. It means nothing at this point since we’re 100 handles from there, but just something to keep in the back of our minds.

We currently have no position in the S&P500 and may not trade off these levels at all, or maybe we will. It all depends on the environment at the time. I do know there’s a good chance I’ll be a buyer at 1600 if/when we get there. But again, it all depends on how we get there and what else is going on around the globe. It also depends on how the rest of our book looks at the time. I wish I knew now what I’ll know then. But I don’t. So we can only plan and prepare and try to do the best we can to manage risk. Since risk management is the only thing we can control in this world, we’ll try to focus mostly on that.

Good luck out there guys

The post S&P Levels to Keep in Mind appeared first on All Star Charts.

And let me tell you, it’s difficult to watch the nikkei grind higher every day without you. It’s hard not to chase it. But Mr. Market makes it hard, that’s its job. You need to keep telling yourself, this is what’s coming. I don’t know when, but it’s coming. Who knew? It came last night.

Here’s what Nikkei futures did this morning – down a cool thousand points:

And who knows how long this correction lasts. Probably longer than any of us think. Or maybe not. This type of stuff isn’t really our game. We liked it back in the fall and we took our profits when it hit our targets. Our bad was not getting back in after some further consolidation in February and March. But once April and May came along, chasing this thing wasn’t worth the risk. As hard as it was to watch it grind, it’s nice to see the market do its thing last night.

I know the majority of my readers aren’t day trading nikkei futures, so let’s just watch this one as a nice lesson for the future. For you guys new to markets, please understand that this is both normal and well deserved. For the market veterans, I know you’ve seen this before, and we know we’ll see it again.

Here’s to remembering the Nikkei next time we consider chasing….

Tags: $DXJ $NK_F $EWJ

The post Nikkei Crashola appeared first on All Star Charts.

So was that it? Was that the end of this glorious bull market?

Who knows. But it is definitely a warning sign and a level to short against (if that’s what you’re into). The whole idea behind a candle like this is that the buyers are just exhausted. This candle tells that story. As they have been for the last six months, the buyers were ready, willing and able to load up on stocks this morning. And they bought them up nicely. But then uncle Ben disappointed the crowd. I wasn’t listening, but they didn’t seem very happy about what he had to say. So they sold treasuries (leading to higher rates), they bought US Dollars, and stocks were sold, and then sold some more.

The worst hit sectors were those that pay dividends. As rates exploded higher today, there was clearly less demand for the Utilities, Telecoms and REITs of the world. Funny enough, the gold miners were up over a percent, just to keep things interesting.

But the reason this candle is getting so much attention is that an intraday market reversal like this is typically found at or near turning points. And the market participants know it. That’s why they’re talking about this particular candlestick so much.

Candles like this one need to see follow through to confirm their bearish implications. So I guess we’ll see what happens on thursday. This could very easily be a sideways correction. Not all of them need to be price corrections. Right now there is definitely downside risk to 1635 and then 1600 after that, which were resistance levels on the way up.

My two cents: the bigger the top, the bigger the drop. We made new highs Wednesday in S&Ps, all-time highs no less. So to call for a market crash, or 20%+ correction at this point, I think is a bit premature. We’re respecting our stops and focusing on these market levels mentioned above. Things are probably going to be a lot choppier going forward than the slow grind we’ve been used to over the past month. That I can say with some confidence. But to say that this is all over and we’re crashing from here? I’m not there yet.

This 1660 break Wednesday was the first big support level that we’ve breached in what seems like forever. So yes, today’s candle has our attention. Deservedly so…

Tags: $SPX $ES_F $SPY

The post About Wednesday’s Candle appeared first on All Star Charts.

 
 
Make sure to follow Joe on Stocktwits & Twitter @jfahmy

Also check it his blog The Next Big Move

Tags: $FEZ $EWG $EWQ $EWD $ILF $EWW $EWZ $EPU $GXG $EPOL $DXJ $EPHE $EWM $EIDO $EEM

The post Talking Markets With Joe Fahmy appeared first on All Star Charts.

Today let’s focus on $USO – the United States Oil Fund ETF. Since May of 2009, this oil fund has traded within a 16 point range between 29 and 45. Right now, they’re sitting somewhere in the middle around 34.50. The chart interests me for sure, but can this turn into a real breakout?

USO has built a nice symmetrical triangle since last summer: lower highs only to be met with higher lows. In April, oil prices fell below the lower trendline of the pattern, only to quickly reverse higher. That is signal #1 to us that prices aren’t ready to collapse. From false moves typically come fast moves in the opposite direction. So as far as we’re concerned, if that break was indeed a false move, then the fast move should theoretically be to the upside.

To start the new week $USO broke above a declining trendline from the September highs. This is the first time it’s been able to do that. Now we want to see a series of higher highs to go along with the higher lows. That confirmation level to us would be closes above those early April highs.

As far as price targets go, the base of this triangle is about 8 points. If this breakout above 34 and change holds, then you’re looking at a measured move up above 42. This level also coincides with the highs from March of last year. So this resistance level would definitely be our target after confirmation.

But knowing the way this guy trades, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it whip around a little bit before making trending decisions. I guess we’ll see. Either way, I think it’s interesting that the Energy sector (as represented by $XLE) is breaking out to new 52-week highs as Oil potentially breaks out in its own right. Although their correlations aren’t as consistently high as you may think (0.49 for year), they do have a correlation of almost 1 for the past quarter. This could continue…

Tags: $CL_F $USO $XLE

The post Is This Crude Oil Breakout For Real? appeared first on All Star Charts.

- Joshua Morgan Brown

 
 
 
 
Tags: $SPY $EWH $ILF $EWZ
 

The post Bull Market Fridays With Pearls appeared first on All Star Charts.

Here’s the chart of bullish sentiment compared to the S&P500 since the 2009 bottom. I think it’s hilarious that with each new high in the market, there have been less and less bulls. You would think the opposite should be occurring.

Sources:

AAII Sentiment Survey Results 5-15-13 (AAII.com)

Bullish Sentiment Drops For The First Time In Five Weeks (Bespoke)

Tags: $SPY $SPX

The post Bullish Sentiment Drops At All-Time Highs appeared first on All Star Charts.

When trying to figure out a topic, I figured that since S&Ps are currently sitting at historic highs, now would be as good time as any to discuss how we look for price targets in this sort of environment.

Here’s a brief excerpt:

“Today we’ll focus on two strategies that we can employ in such scenarios. The first one is the underrated measured move. Price pattern recognition is one of the older methods used by technical analysts. Robert Edwards and John Magee were writing about these patterns back in the 1940s. Typically, we’ll take the height of the pattern, or consolidation, and then add that to the breakout level, giving us a price projection. In this case, let’s use the S&P500 as an example, as we’re already well above any previous resistance levels throughout history.

As we can see in this daily bar chart, 1538 was support for the S&P500 during March and April. About 60 points higher S&Ps ran into resistance during the month of April. This 60 point range gives us an eventual price target of just under 1660 based on that one pattern. This helps us recognize that there is potential resistance at these prices even though the index has never traded up there.”

Click here to read the price target post in full

***

Thanks again Andy for including me in your Market Masters series. Looking forward to reading the rest of the posts.

The post Price Targets In Unchartered Territory appeared first on All Star Charts.

So here’s why I’m interested. The weekly chart is trying to break out above multi-year resistance levels. The question now is whether or not it can hold this breakout and shoot for those 2007 highs that are still almost 20% away.

Here’s the weekly bar chart. This resistance has been clean for 5 years and the next level is staring at us right in the face:

The risk we’re taking is that this breakout doesn’t hold and it rolls back over below all of that supply. But I suppose that’s always the risk on a breakout play right? The difference here is that resistance levels are rarely this clean.

In the case of Hong Kong, we want to see the 20 and change level hold for us to continue to be interested in the space. To the upside, we’re targeting those 2007 highs above 24. For you guys that prefer dividend-adjusted charts, $EWH is already sitting at all-time highs. Either way, we find this name attractive and it definitely has my attention.

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