“The tropical Atlantic has anomalously warmed over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El Niño event this summer and fall are unlikely. We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”

Florida hurricane tracks since 1851

“This forecast is based on a new extended-range early April statistical prediction scheme that was developed utilizing 29 years of past data. Analog predictors are also utilized. We anticipate an above-average Atlantic basin hurricane season due to the combination of an anomalously warm tropical Atlantic and a relatively low likelihood of El Niño.”

For the full forecast and supporting data see http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2013/apr2013/apr2013.pdf

Anna Maria Island beach

Anna Maria Island has been rated fourth by Trip Advisors Travelers’ Choice Islands awards 2012, for US islands.

Only 4th? Well the survey is based on a year of travelers’ feedback on quantity and quality of island attractions, hotels, and restaurants, so it does come with some objectivity but I wonder if a few days’ visit is enough to get anything more than a superficial impression.

The U.S. list:

1. San Juan Island, Washington
2. Kauai, Hawaii
3. Marco Island, Florida
4. Anna Maria Island, Florida
5. Maui, Hawaii
6. Sanibel Island, Florida
7. Chincoteague Island, Virginia
8. Hawaii, Hawaii
9. Amelia Island, Florida
10. Key West, Florida

Source: http://www.tripadvisor.com/TravelersChoice-Islands-cTop-g191

I’ve been to nearly all these islands listed, and to a lot more others, and Anna Maria Island is certainly one of the best. Let’s hope its recently acquired celebrity status doesn’t ruin it’s appeal.

Anna Maria beach in March fog

Spring break has come and gone but spring has not yet arrived. Cool winds from the north collided with a warm air mass from the south and blanketed Anna Maria Island with thick fog for days.

The north wind pushed further south and let in more unseasonably cold temperatures.

Hawaiian Half Flower

Scaelvola frutescens, Scaevola taccada, or Naupaka, Hawaiian Beach Berry, Hawaiian half flower grows well in home landscapes and beach access alley ways.

Naupaka with berries

The 1″ white half-round flowers and small fleshy berries come out in spring. It is low to no maintenance, growing to 7 feet high without irrigation in sandy soil.

Scaevola frutescens

Meanwhile, there are a few places on Pine Avenue that are truly historical, and most obvious is Roser Memorial Community Church. Now celebrating its 100^th year, this beautiful institution continues to serve the community in ways that reach beyond denominations and even beyond church affiliation of any kind. The music being presented at the church in this season’s concert series is sublime, regardless of one’s beliefs.

Roser Memorial Community Church

The first performance, on January 20, featured pianist Davide Cabassi, a finalist in the 2005 Van Cliburn International Piano Competition. A fine Steinway concert grand piano was rented by the church and, in its elevated position, could be easily seen by the audience, which filled all the pews. The acoustics were impressive.

Mr. Cabassi opened his program with Mozart’s Piano Sonata No. 11 in A Major, K. 331. A long first movement of a lyrical theme and variations introduced the audience to the brilliant sound of an excellent instrument, as well as to the performer’s expertise. The audience displayed its own expertise as listeners, by not applauding after the first movement, as uneducated audiences have been known to do even in places supposedly much more sophisticated than Anna Maria. After another gentle movement, a Menuetto, the intensity finally started to pick up in the third movement, Allegretto, “Alla Turca.”

With the second piece, Liszt’s B Minor Piano Sonata, the intensity hit maximum peaks and Mr. Cabassi displayed both his virtuosity and endurance. After a standing ovation and intermission, he returned to the stage with his beautiful wife, who wore a flame-red gown, adding to the drama of the Dvorak Eight Slavonic Dances, Opus 46, which they performed together. These four-hand pieces are particularly challenging because of all the tempo changes, and the unity of the couple was impressive. Two encores followed and the audience then emerged from the church as the six-o’clock bells chimed and the buildings of Pine Avenue were bathed in the warm rays of the setting sun. Religion, or no religion, those who attended had been transported to some kind of heaven.

Roser’s concert series for this season also includes, on February 17, the ragtime/boogie-woogie piano of Bob Milne, who performs over 250 concerts a year, worldwide. Then, on March 9, the Sarasota Chorus of the Keys and quartet will perform at the church.

In this way, Roser Memorial Community Church continues to serve the “community” in its name. It also is a beautiful tribute to the wife of John Roser, in whose memory he built the church, in 1913.

As explained by Carolyne Norwood in her book Anna Maria Island the Early Days 1893 – 1940, John Roser and his son, Charles, had established a large candy and cracker company in Ohio. Their Fig Newton was so popular that Nabisco bought the recipe for a million dollars in 1910. Charles Roser was a member of the Anna Maria Beach Company. His father had retired in St. Petersburg. They discussed the possibility of building a church in Anna Maria, and when John’s wife, Caroline, passed away, he decided to proceed, in her memory.

One hundred years later, life on Anna Maria Island is enriched by the vision of people like the Rosers, and by the hard work of those who have kept the church vital through all the ups and downs of the last century.

Accepted items include:

• Solvents, paints, household chemicals, pesticides, oil
• Ammunition, flares, propane tanks, batteries, fluorescent lamps
• Mercury containing devices, computer components, televisions, copiers
• Video and audio equipment, and small household appliances

Unacceptable items include:

• Radioactive items such as smoke detectors
• Bio-hazard materials such as needles

For more information call Manatee County Utilities Operations Department at 941-708-8561

Warm weather on the island in January has its pros and cons. It’s nice not to have to turn on the heat, but this year many people’s air conditioners are still running.

Even though the island is at the northernmost point at which coconut palms can survive, it’s not surprising that from time to time they are wiped out. In the past few years, Anna Maria Island has lost many of its beautiful coconut palms. Very cold temperatures either killed them immediately or damaged them enough that they have not thrived and have been vulnerable to insect pests and disease. The warm temperatures have been very good news for some of the more cold-sensitive plants. It’s fortunate for the trees that recent cold winters have not been followed by even more cold, but, unfortunately, warm temperatures also help encourage pests.

Whitefly infested frond

This season one such insect pest is the new species of whitefly that has been moving from south Florida north, attacking many subtropical trees, palms, fruit-bearing plants and ornamentals.

Even the cold of a more typical winter probably would not have been enough to permanently eradicate this new and destructive pest. But in this particularly warm winter, these insects are likely to thrive and spread through our neighborhoods. Whitefly lay white eggs on leaves and fronds, become larvae that excrete sticky residue, and then becomes black with mold. The black mold kills plants underneath by inhibiting photosynthesis.

Another unwelcomed result of warm weather in January may be the red tide algal bloom, which affected the island in the middle of the month. The 140-mile-long bloom was mostly to our south, killing lots of fish, which washed ashore in Sarasota.

Anna Maria Island was at the northern end of the bloom, and we, too, had a few dead fish on the beach. But most noticeable were the fumes from the algae, when the wind was onshore. The respiratory irritation from the fumes made it unpleasant to spend time on the beach. Surprisingly, most evenings before sunset, there were still some people sitting and walking on the beach apparently unaffected.

Red tide mullet fishkill

Fortunately, signs of red tide have not been noticed on the bay side of the island, and the mullet fishermen have had comfortable temperatures to pursue their work. Recreational fishing has been good, too, with redfish, speckled trout, sheepshead, snook and pompano caught.
As this report is being written in the middle of the month, there is still time for some cold weather, but, so far, islanders and visitors have been spared any extremely cold spells. It has been a pleasure to be outside this winter. Robinson Preserve has been full of people, as have the beaches and outdoor restaurants.

Summary:

• No effects on Anna Maria Island besides some temporary beach erosion by Debby.
• 2 storms (Alberto, Beryl) formed prior to official season start June 1
• Earliest “D” named storm ever recorded
• No “major hurricanes” (Cat 3 or higher) made US landfall
• 4 storms made US landfalls (Beryl, Debby, Isaac, Sandy)
• Largest storm area of 900 miles across ever recorded (Sandy)
• Hurricane Sandy (Cat 2) caused major wind damage and flooding to NJ and NY shorelines with peak surge coinciding with high tide.

Beryl – Tropical Storm, 65mph wind, May 26-30, landfall Jacksonville Beach Florida, heavy rain in Cuba, Bahamas, South Florida

Debby – Tropical Storm, 60mph wind, June 23-26, landfall Steinhatchee Florida, heavy rain in north Florida with west coast beach erosion

Isaac – Hurricane Cat 1, 80mph wind, Aug 21-Sep 1, landfall Hispanola; Cuba; Mississippi River; Fort Fourchon Louisiana, 11′ storm surge, large storm area, 45 killed

Sandy –  Hurricane Cat  2, 110mph wind, Oct 22-31, landfall Jamaica; Bahamas; Atlantic City New Jersey, 13′ surge, 253 fatalities.

In the last 12 months there has been a nearly 19% increase in sales over the previous year. Inventory of properties for sale in November 2012 was 323, the lowest since the 2005 market bubble and the crash high of almost 1000 in 2006.

What are the visible signs of real estate activity?

Within a few blocks I observed 7 properties under construction. Two are in the process of demolition, one is new, and the rest are remodels of existing structures.

This house sold for $695,000 recently. It has expansive  water  views of  Bimini Bay and boat access to Tampa Bay and Gulf of Mexico without going under any bridges.

It is being demolished for a new house.

This waterfront property sold for $740,000, with NE views across Bimini Bay, and direct access to sailboat water.

Demolition has been completed and the lot scraped.

This new house was constructed in the last 9 months on a previously vacant lot and is almost ready for occupancy. The government  agency FEMA mandates that new houses or major reconstruction have living space above the flood plain.

This Old Florida house was remodeled recently within the 50% rule in order to retain ground floor living.

 The remodel increased interior ceiling height, moved the garage forward and increased living space.

This remodel is being done to a house on an inner street after a distress sale of $240,000.

 These are only a few examples of activity in real estate on part of the island. Is it a sign of a broader turn-around? Time will tell.

Now that we are beginning the winter visitors ‘snowbird’ season we usually see a pickup in interest by potential buyers for vacation houses and retirement homes. With interest rates at all time lows, zero or negative returns in financial markets, plus the looming threat of hyperinflation, perhaps real assets are the most attractive place to store wealth.

Whatever the reasoning, you can’t go too far wrong wanting to own a house and living on Anna Maria Island with it’s Old Florida charm still evident and immediate access to the best fishing, boating and beaches of the Gulf of Mexico.

Holmes Beach

In Holmes Beach, the issue of large rental duplexes and their multiple impacts on neighboring residents spurred three challengers to run for the position of mayor and the two available seats on the city commission. City meetings leading up to the election sometimes erupted into angry confrontations involving members of the sitting commission, challengers, and various members of the public who were concerned about how to handle the proliferation of large duplexes without infringing on property rights.

The argument for supporting the challengers was that the incumbents had taken far too long to discourage the building of large rental duplexes, which many feel are ruining the character of the island. The argument in favor of the incumbents was that they were working skillfully within a lot of very demanding state-level requirements, and were in the process of achieving a lot, if only they could be allowed to continue. The implication was that the new people may have had good intentions, but their lack of experience and lack of connections would ultimately delay good solutions for these issues. There were additional concerns, by some, that the challengers might not respect the rights of developers and property owners as they try to limit further large rental properties from having such a great impact on others.

Voters appeared to have been impatient with the current commission’s pace in addressing the rental duplex challenge. They elected 5-year resident Carmel Monti over current mayor, Rich Bohnenburger. Challengers Judy Holmes Titsworth and Marvin Grossman won the commission seats over incumbents Sandy Haas-Martens and John Monetti.

Anna Maria

Races for the commissioners of Anna Maria and Bradenton Beach were much less passionate. In Anna Maria, Commissioner Chuck Webb was unopposed and the second open seat was taken by Nancy Yetter, who was the only person to qualify.

Bradenton Beach

Bradenton Beach Commissioners Ed Straight and Jan Vosburgh continued in office because there were no other candidates.

Florida

The state of Florida gave its voters plenty to study, as the ballot contained 11 long and complicated amendments. Almost all were defeated with the exception of three, which gave some property tax relief to veterans, spouses of deceased veterans and poor seniors.

As usual, Florida received a lot of attention before the election, not only as a swing state but in relation to arguments about early voting. November 3 was the last day for early voting, and the wait at the Supervisor of Elections Office in Bradenton was between 1 to 2 hours, according to friends who checked a couple of times that morning.

On election day, as the polls opened at 7 am, rumbles of thunder added to the drama and sober mood of the occasion. At the Precinct 92 polling place, at the Gloria Dei Lutheran Church on Marina Drive, the parking lot was full of signs and waving candidates as well as cars. In mid-morning the wait to get inside was 10 to 20 minutes, and reports from the afternoon were that it was even quicker.

The incumbent U. S. president was re-elected, but it’s a very different story in Holmes Beach. It will be interesting to see how the next few years go, at both levels.