With the 4th International Conference for SIDS on the horizon, the Wadadli Action Platform brought together over 100 participants including high-level SIDS leaders, international partners and institutional officials to take stock of SIDS critical issues, identify developmental gaps, and raise consensus on initiatives aimed to advance recovery and meet Sustainable Development Goals.

“SIDS must remain a priority for the international community, including partner governments and the UN system,” said Shahid. “SIDS are at the frontline of multiple global crises – from climate change to food security, from challenges to our marine environment to exorbitant debt. Compounding crises have heightened our debt burden. The need for a long-term solution to the debt crisis we face, is critical. The debt-obligations faced by SIDS globally are unsustainable and immoral.”

Shahid emphasized the importance of a Multidimensional Vulnerability Index (MVI), which is being developed by an UN expert panel co-chaired by Prime Minister Browne of Antigua and Barbuda. The MVI will better capture the vulnerabilities of countries beyond their GDP and will include environmental and social considerations. This would make it a vital tool to enable SIDS to access the financing needed to adapt to climate change and strengthen long-term resilience. He called for the support of the international community, including international financial institutions, and public and private creditors in its implementation.

Dr. Hyginus Leon, President of the Caribbean Development Bank reiterated the need for use of the MVI.

“Access to finance is existential for SIDS. There is need for an integration of the debt sustainability framework of the International Monetary Fund, the investment-growth nexus of the World Bank, and the SDG-resilience building framework of the United Nations,” he said. “A key element of that integration is the need for a Multidimensional Vulnerability Index (MVI). It has the scope to provide an effective and equitable mechanism for determining access to adequate and affordable finance, to achieve the SDGs.”

Sessions also focused on Loss and Damage, climate change, promoting gender parity and inclusion for people with disabilities, data challenges, and leveraging indigenous intellectual capacity to build solutions, among other topics.

“With just over seven years remaining for the conclusion of the SDGs and one and half for the SAMOA Pathway, we are still facing startling challenges,” said The Honourable E.P. Chet Greene, Minister of Foreign Affairs for Antigua and Barbuda. “If we fail to act, if the international community continues to fail us, we will soon see unprecedented scales of movements of people forced to flee their homes because of climate change, because of poverty and economic hardship.”

“In Pacific atoll nations, typhoons have already unearthed sacred ancestral burial grounds, with young men having to relocate remains of their forefathers on higher land. The science reinforces our demands that the UNFCCC must address loss and damage now. This is THE political priority for AOSIS and vulnerable nations across the world at COP27 in November. The lack of adequate funding arrangements to address loss and damage is a destabilizing force in the world.”

“We take away invaluable exchanges which will be critical for the 4th SIDS Conference,” noted His Excellency Conrod Hunte, AOSIS Deputy Chair, at the close of the sessions. “The progress we have made here is a step in the right direction to achieve the sustainable development our SIDS deserve.”

Photo: L-R: Ms. Rebecca Fabrizi – SIDS Envoy from the United Kingdom; H.E. Abdulla Shahid, President of the 76th session of the United Nations General Assembly; the Honourable E.P. Chet Greene, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Immigration and Trade of Antigua and Barbuda; Dr. Hyginus ‘Gene’ Leon – President of the Caribbean Development Bank; Tomas Anker Christensen – Denmark Prime Minister’s Climate and Ocean Envoy; H.E. Conrod Hunte, AOSIS Deputy Chair and Lead Climate Change Negotiator. Photo Credit: @UN_PGA

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Access to investment and finance has defined how island states are able to progress towards achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and plan their post-pandemic economic recovery. With the pressure of the last twelve months weighing hard on island economies, all eyes are now on how national governments will respond. 

Policymakers worldwide are keenly anticipating this year’s COP26 UN climate change conference hosted by the United Kingdom. Recovery is set to be one of the major talking points at the summit and delegates are expected to discuss solutions that can create the changes needed for a transition towards a more sustainable economic model. While there have been stipulations in the Paris Agreement that guarantee that larger economic powers help support smaller and developing nations, equitable access finance remains a critical component.

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres described this year as being “make or break” in terms of international policy as he called for more virtual opportunities for collaboration ahead of the COP negotiations. Guterres has set the tone for these talks, which has opened the door for upcoming events like this week’s Island Finance Forum (IFF) to have a lasting impact, with headline speakers including the Prime Ministers of Saint Lucia and Antigua & Barbuda, in addition to numerous other Caribbean and island delegates calling for fairer financial terms.

Global Context: The response to both COVID-19 and the climate crisis must be worked on in tandem, and Caribbean leaders have warned that the two threats are of equal importance to the region. Maintaining that access to finance must urgently be scaled up, the Prime Minister of Barbados, Mia Amor Mottley, recently stated that, “if the global community does not act quickly to make up for delays in financing commitments under the Paris Agreement, climate refugees fleeing the imminent threat of sea level rise and devastation from disaster will be every country’s responsibility.”

Dealing with last year’s sudden drop in tourism revenue, Small Island Developing States (SIDS) have had to look for new financial opportunities to support their economies. Many are calling for economic alternatives to tourism to be prioritised, but the availability of funds to make the investments necessary for these changes remains a key challenge for implementation. The Green Climate Fund represents one option, but criticism remains that the smaller or medium-scale funding needed for SIDS compared to larger nations can often be held back by red tape.

Bolstered by Gutteres’ demand for more online participation ahead of the COP, in addition to the work carried out by the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) to call for better access to finance for island nations, virtual negotiations have become an important part of climate policy. This has promoted socio-economic growth among islands and led to high-level discussions geared at capitalizing on local knowledge and innovation. With the slow reopening of the global economy, there is also an important role for private finance institutions to prioritize sustainable development in their efforts.

Sustainable Recovery: Now is the time for action, and green investments are a critical component in the next phase. A case for new investment mechanisms to finance the difficult years ahead must be made at the international level, including at the United Nations. Island citizens must demand their political leaders make the case for a global effort that leaves no nation behind and includes equitable access to finance for both national governments and for small businesses that form the backbone of island economies.

This week’s Island Finance Forum will highlight the challenges faced by global island communities and is expected to help promote solutions for a sustainable economic recovery. Open to the public in a virtual format and featuring opportunities for Q&A sessions with panelists, the event aims to illustrate how a fair and sustainable economic recovery can start from local grassroots programmes to high-level policy initiatives.

Events like this, which help bridge the gap between sustainable development practitioners and stakeholders, and help to open access to expert knowledge and financial opportunities available to them, are an important step towards creating a strong future for island communities. 

Image credit: St. Pierre, Martinique. Larry Syverson.

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Everything changed for the Caribbean insurance sector in 2017 when hurricanes Irma and María accounted for $94.6 billion in economic losses and $34.8 billion in commercially-insured losses —among the insurance sector’s costliest years.  As a result, the ability to secure insurance has become increasingly difficult for government leadership, infrastructure project owners and island nations in need of robust policies.

A changing tolerance for risk: Since today’s insurance firms — from local advisors to large, global institutional players — are more selective in who and what they choose to underwrite, the need for independent financial and insurance advisory on major projects has never been greater.  The continued hardening of the market and growing intolerance for risk among the largest institutional providers has made cost-effective insurance particularly hard to secure. 

An independent insurance advisor will understand the limitations of each insurer and their appetite for risk.  For example, if you have a $100 million airport, the local insurer may retain just 5% of the risk and distribute the rest of the risk amongst a panel of reinsurers.  The key is finding the panel of reinsurers that have the appetite to assume a portion of the risk. An advisor may customize an approach consistent with investors’ risk profiles.

The option to self-procure: Project owners have the option to purchase their own insurance in the form of an Owner-Controlled Insurance Program (OCIP), a single insurance policy designed to cover a project on an “all risks” basis, rather than have each individual contractor bid for their phase of the project, inclusive of insurance costs which are inevitably marked up for contractor profit and/or administrative fees. 

When the owner decides to purchase insurance for the entire project under an OCIP —covering all contractors and sub-contractors under one policy — the insurance costs are collected into a single policy premium.  This strategy is similar to an owner going to a wholesale store and buying goods in bulk, versus buying them at a luxury shopping mall where the cost-per-unit is higher.

By procuring insurance in this way, the owner has more transparency and control over their purchasing strategy, costs, security and terms and conditions, while benefiting from the economies of scale that come from a bulk purchase. Throughout the life cycle of the construction, the money saved by the project owner can be substantial as a result of implementing this strategy.

A single insurance policy will also allow governments and sponsors to fulfill any necessary supplier goals, such as dedicating a percentage of the project’s contracts toward local businesses who might otherwise struggle to meet the insurance requirements of a project. This effort has a positive community impact, opening up the project to a broader base of local contractors where they gain valuable experience and grow their businesses as well.

A niche market with unique needs: When it comes to insurance, it is critical to look at the size of the market, the ease and sophistication of doing business there, and that location’s sovereign and geographical risks.  Many firms lump the Caribbean — representing 26 countries, 13 of which are sovereign states — with South America, but this approach is simply incorrect.  We ask the rhetorical question: how many national brokers have an office presence in the Caribbean, and trade in those markets, day in and day out?  The answer is, few, if any.

Amongst the most urgent issues in the Caribbean are climate change and cyber security, and a comprehensive insurance solution is needed to protect on both fronts.

Environmental concerns in the Caribbean are at an all-time high, and while its resilience agenda is ambitious—with many new projects proposed as well as under development—there is a level of unpredictability as well.

The need for insurance across the Caribbean is only going to increase due to ongoing issues pertaining to climate change, but also around waste facilities, landfill emissions, and wastewater treatment issues.

Aside from environmental risk, cyber security across the Caribbean is a major vulnerability. Outmoded IT software and systems have made government websites susceptible to cyber-attacks, comprising confidential sovereign information and communications. 

Key risk management considerations: Project owners need to know who their insurer, or insurers, are.  They must understand who comprises their reinsurance panel behind the local insurance coverage. Rigorous analysis of the financials of the companies providing the insurance (in the U.S. there are independent ratings) is of utmost importance. 

We have seen from the catastrophic events of 2017 that a number of local carriers had inadequate reinsurance behind them, and subsequently reneged on legitimate claims because they went into liquidation or delayed payments trying to survive.  Having A-rated insurers and reinsurers carrying your risk gives you more peace of mind that a widespread disaster will not prevent you from collecting your claims.

Asset valuation is critically important as well. Project owners often don’t have their projects valued or assessed frequently. They might go five years without valuing an asset, but getting the asset valued on an annual basis is essential. Insurance policies are often written in one direction, so project owners need to take a “defensive” position and maximize any potential payout by keeping the project or property’s values up to date and accurate. Project owners need to have a fair insurance policy that protects their interests first and foremost, and asset valuation is a major part of this process.

Lastly, project owners should have an insurance report that is separate from the broker and underwriter’s report. An insurance advisor can either recommend a third-party to write a report, which can help with unexpected legal challenges.

Documentation to support a claim will mean the difference between securing a proper payout, or not. Project owners should maintain proper documentation with digital copies as well.  Documentation is known to be a weak point in the Caribbean, with most governments not having implemented digital systems. Groups need to understand that without documentation, they will likely lose any claim or arbitration case that may arise.

The benefit of working with an independent advisor: An independent advisor is inherently a better option than an insurance company representative, who will be biased toward his or her company’s offerings. An independent advisor will instead have a mission to provide the client with the best and most cost-effective insurance coverage products utilizing a global network of professional experts to get the best possible results. 

Project owners should perform their own due diligence. Seek out insurance and financial advisory experts with experience in the region. Scrutinize that individual’s qualifications, and what kind of expertise they are bringing to the table. Check that the broker has adequate errors and omissions insurance and speak to their existing or past clients in order to build confidence in the broker’s ability to perform.

Insurance enables progress: Insurance has many benefits, most importantly bringing a level of predictability to large-scale economic improvement projects. The best insurance policies allow groups to expect the best, but also to plan for the worst. 

Having a strong insurance policy and plan in place allows investors and project owners to move forward confidently with high-stakes, high-impact projects.  It’s not a matter of whether to get insurance—which is a must—rather, it’s a matter of how to secure the right insurance that protects to the maximum extent. With the help of an insurance advisor, groups are better equipped to secure the best insurance solutions for their needs and help their region’s most important projects come to fruition.

Image description: Aftermath of Hurricane Irma, St Maarten. Credit, 3-Netherlands Red Cross (NLRC)

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From Russia to Singapore, nations around the world are considering providing citizens who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 with digital immunity certificates for domestic and international use. Their principal objective is to stimulate national economic recovery and a gradual return to normality.

Such ‘vaccine passports’ may, however, come to play an important role in the restoration of international tourism as more people in wealthier nations are immunised against COVID-19.

Significantly, Israel, having vaccinated 30 per cent of its citizens and over 80 per cent of those in older age groups, is now negotiating bilateral protocols to establish vaccine passport corridors for those wanting to holiday in Greece and Cyprus.

Elsewhere, the African Union Commission is developing with the continent’s health authorities a ‘My COVID Pass’ for travellers, allowing for the mutual recognition of COVID-19 test results and vaccines; the European Council, at the request of some member states, is considering ‘passports’ as a way to support EU economic recovery; and in Britain a high-level Cabinet-led task force is to report soon on the issues involved. At the same time, the aviation industry through IATA has begun trialling a multifunctional ‘Travel Pass’ for airline use that may be rolled out soon.

Despite this, the development and use of immunity certificates is complex and contentious, raising practical and ethical issues.

Technically, the development of a COVID-19 vaccine passport involves placing a validated secure machine readable QR code on a mobile phone. However, the real-world challenges involved in achieving this are considerable.

A recent academic study published by the Royal Society in London describes in detail the issues that every state would need to address before any COVID-19 passport system is introduced for international use.

Vaccine passports for travel would have to reveal in a receiving country if the holder is protected from illness and unable to transmit the virus; show vaccine efficacy; be subject to international acceptance; and detail whether the vaccine given is effective against new or emerging variants. It would also have to be easily portable, interoperable, affordable, and have a clearly defined use.  Any such passport would also have to be secure, legal, ethical, and non-discriminatory.

Professor Melinda Mills, the Director of the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, one of the study’s authors, says that that a clear understanding of the use to which any such passport is put is essential. Is it, she asks, a passport to allow international travel, or should it be initially used to allow a holder greater freedom at home?

She is concerned that vaccine passports require a level of agreement on the science of immunity and could “inadvertently discriminate or exacerbate existing inequalities”. Professor Mills also raises significant legal and ethical questions, for example relating to the denial of travel to those who are vaccine-less or lack a mobile phone.

What the Royal Society report makes abundantly clear is that if any vaccine passport is to be universally viable it requires international standardisation and to follow the lead of the World Health Organisation (WHO).

The WHO, however, continues to caution against ‘immunity certificates’. Despite this, it has begun to explore the issue, recently convening a group of experts to define specifications and standards for a digital vaccination certificate that could facilitate vaccine monitoring and ‘support cross-border uses’.

Although the group has yet to report, it is already apparent that any WHO related smart vaccination certificate will have to meet multiple criteria and will need to be ‘coordinated, time-limited, risk-based, and evidence-based’ when it comes to international travel.

If, as many epidemiologists believe, mutants of the virus could be with us for years to come, vaccine passports coupled with the now urgently needed region-wide roll out of vaccines and then later, booster programmes, will become essential.

What happened in much of the Caribbean over Christmas and the New Year makes the point that without both, Caribbean tourism and the wider regional economy are unlikely to recover sustainably.

After the positive early region-wide suppression of the virus in 2020, the holiday period saw many countries in the region experience a surge in infections from both imported cases of the virus and local indiscipline. This occurred even though visitor arrivals numbers remained very low and the thousands of cruise passengers who normally visit for hours were absent.

The consequence was that governments in both the region and its source markets have since adopted travel restrictions that are antipathetic to the rapid return of the 31.5 m stay over visitors and 30.2m cruise landings the Caribbean saw in 2019.

Without widespread immunisation and vaccine passports, it is therefore hard to see how the industry’s viability and tourism’s broader economic role can start to be restored, let alone the high intensity contact necessary to welcome every visitor so they can safely interact with sellers of services and the wider community.

Hopefully, as WHO’s list of certified vaccines increases, and if Cuba’s Soberana 02 vaccine proves efficacious and becomes available through the WHO’s COVAX facility, it will be possible before the year’s end to have vaccinated significant numbers of at-risk Caribbean citizens, key workers, and others deemed essential to economic recovery.

In the meantime, Governments, the industry, and the Caribbean Public Health Agency (CARPHA) should be considering jointly responding to the various logistical, commercial and ethical issues raised by travel vaccination certification: not least because pent up demand among vaccinated consumers in the region’s principal source markets may soon surge, driving the rapid introduction of travel passports and global competition for visitors.

To fully restart tourism and end the stop-start approach now being seen across the region will require not just a review of the confusing melange of entry requirements that now exist and their variable enforcement, but new thinking about how countries intend on testing, tracing, and responding to the high volumes of visitors the region has previously seen.

The region’s meagre resources and over dependence on tourism suggest that this will mean the development of safe travel bilateral corridors from North America and Europe utilising digital vaccine certification.

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GENEVA, February 24, 2021 — Poorer countries will most likely “bear the brunt of hundreds of thousands of needless deaths” from inequalities in access to COVID-19 vaccines.

This dire warning was given by the Commonwealth Secretary-General Patricia Scotland in a video address to the High-Level Segment at the 46th session of the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva on 23 February.

More than 130 high-level dignitaries, including heads of state, foreign ministers and heads of international organisations, spoke during the High-Level Segment.

The Commonwealth Secretary-General said: “COVID-19 has shone a harsh light on health inequalities within and between countries. Nowhere is this more evident than in access to vaccines.

“Although vaccines are a vital lifeline, they remain out of the grasp of far too many. Crucially, it means that citizens of the poorest nations may bear the brunt of hundreds of thousands of needless deaths.”

– Baroness Patricia Scotland, Secretary General of The Commonwealth

“We must not allow this. Leaders of our world must come together to ensure that this does not happen.”

The Secretary-General also warned inequitable vaccine access could derail the global economic recovery and make wealthier nations lose money.

She added: “COVID has taught us that in order for any of us to be safe, we all must be safe. We must act together.”

This past year has enhanced lingering existential threats, including the climate emergency, the Secretary-General stated.

She reaffirmed the Commonwealth’s resolve to support small states and other vulnerable countries to protect the environment and tackle climate change.

The Commonwealth’s 54 member countries include 32 small states.

Social injustices including discrimination, poverty among marginalised communities and violence against women and girls have also been exacerbated by the pandemic.

The Secretary-General called for inclusive development and multilateral co-operation, stressing that recommitment to human rights must be central to COVID-19 recovery efforts.

She concluded: “Human rights are not the panacea to all challenges brought about by the pandemic, by climate change or by the never-ending list of conflicts across the world. But the last 12 months have taught a painful lesson to humanity. We must learn from experience. We have to make human rights central to building back better. Without human rights, humanity is not a sustainable project. We cannot afford to fail.”

In the Caribbean, Barbados and Dominica have already begun successful mass vaccination drives, supported by a generous donation of several thousand COVISHIELD/Astra-Zeneca vaccine doses from the Government of India. For its part, Barbados has also donated significant numbers of its doses to neighbouring Caribbean countries, while reaching a milestone of 25,000 administered vaccinations within two weeks.

The Pan-American Health Organization has also indicated that Barbados, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia and St. Vincent and the Grenadines are also to receive a combined total of 357, 600 vaccines under the COVAX facility by month end, but leading regional economists have estimated that CARICOM countries will need at least 19.4 million vaccine doses for the region to reach herd immunity. (PR/AMG)

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As Barbados battles a second wave more deadly than its first, its anti-COVID-19 efforts have come under fire. But could the hurdles being faced by the island be traced to past policy failures? And have these since been addressed?

I begin at the border, with Barbados being COVID-free as it officially opened to tourists in July 2020. When the primary concern should have been to prevent the importation of new cases, the decision was made to institute a too short two-day quarantine for incoming travellers, far below the then scientifically-established standard of two weeks. 

The Barbados Association of Medical Practitioners (BAMP) expressed their concerns with this early on, stating “such an approach will fail to detect and quarantine (at least) 9 – 33% of travellers who contract COVID-19 between their initial test and arrival in Barbados”, with BAMP requesting instead that the isolation period be extended to seven days. Pre-prints published by the CDC also hint at how porous the borders remained,  with their models indicating a risk reduction as low as 40% for shorter isolation periods. 

Meanwhile, reports on how difficult it was to keep tourists in isolation flooded the region, raising questions about the ability to effectively curtail the movement of potentially infectious visitors. Still, authorities resisted change, insisting that two negative qPCR COVID tests – one prior to travel and a second at the exit of quarantine – were an adequate countermeasure.

But there was no scientific evidence of this, a fact that was reflected by the Pan American Health Organization’s guidelines for resuming non-essential international travel. PAHO’s position was that the focus should be on monitoring visitors for symptom development and tracking their locations, and that “conducting or requiring COVID-19 testing of prospective or incoming international travellers is not recommended as a tool to mitigate the risk of international spread.”

With the case count rising, Barbados then finally amended its travel protocols. The isolation period has been lengthened from two days to five, and tourists are now monitored through a mobile app called BIMSafe, in keeping with PAHO’s emphasis on symptom reporting and location tracking. However, the new quarantine may still be insufficient, as it remains below BAMP’s recommendations. 

There are additional issues with Barbados’ dependence on negative test results. Multiple factors can result in a viral load that is too low to be measured, even if the person has COVID and can transmit the disease. The result is a fairly high false negative rate, particularly in the earlier stages of infection. 

When the FDA first granted test authorisations, it noted this limitation by indicating that “negative results do not preclude SARS-CoV-2 infection and should not be used as the sole basis for patient management decisions.” Testing is therefore meant to be used in concert with other measures, rather than alone.

Still, Barbados continues to depend on it in a way that is inappropriate, including the implementation of a third test on arrival as part of its travel protocols. And despite this heavy reliance on testing as a sole determinant in key decision-making, Barbados still fails to employ testing where it is most powerful — to monitor COVID incidence in the local population.

Although controls at the border were inadequate to prevent the importation of COVID, this risk could have been mitigated by regular, widespread testing of the local population. Doing this would have captured any spread early on. Without it, anyone missed at the border would remain hidden until long after there was significant transmission, and the consequence of such a failure would be a sudden large spike in community cases, with the added disadvantage of not knowing how large or how far the disease had spread in the interim — exactly as has happened. 

Barbados did not and has never sufficiently tested its own people, despite a relatively high total test number. And while the focus on searching for negatives is partly to blame, much of it is due to the use of long out-of-date criteria to identify positive cases.

A significant percentage of people who have COVID are asymptomatic, and both these individuals and those who are pre-symptomatic can pass on the disease. Guidance for testing a population has therefore shifted away from focusing on those who report that they feel ill. Instead, it is recommended that countries frequently and randomly test a sample of their population, even if apparently healthy,  as a way of more accurately determining current incidence.

Nevertheless, Barbados’ testing approach, even now, continues to depend on the appearance of symptoms, leaving many asymptomatic cases undetected. Backlogs at the local laboratory are now being managed by a triaging system that contributes to this and other issues. And the first attempt at mass testing — a door-to-door program known as Operation Seek And Save, where a survey of the population is followed by testing households that report symptoms — was largely unsuccessful. It has netted only a handful of additional cases after thousands of interviews, likely due to major flaws in how the survey was designed, deployed and managed.

All of this means that it is still unknown how much and how widely COVID has spread in Barbados, although high case-positivity rates and rising case numbers hint at how many were missed. 

Barbados has also largely neglected to empower their population with the tools to protect themselves. Education and support has been minimal, and an absence of systemic protections — like temporary legislation preventing eviction, stricter enforcement of existing labour laws or free mask distribution to those unable to afford them — have left poorer citizens especially vulnerable. 

Part of the problem here is ineffective communication. Early messaging just prior to the current outbreak seemed meant to reinforce the idea that COVID remained absent from the community, rather than emphasising the need for continued vigilance once tourism was active. There was little sensitisation or education, no mandate to wear masks, and limited oversight. The capital lacked billboards or posters in its most high-traffic areas, and few attempts were made to downsize or reduce gatherings in anticipation of holiday surges.

There was also almost no centralised guidance or training for workers and business owners, and efforts were mainly confined to online documents short on details. This left the labour force poorly equipped, with measures unlikely to be deployed uniformly or with the necessary stringency.

Compounding the issue was that even official sources of information did not provide consistent, accurate messaging. The Barbados Government Information Service sometimes presented questionable guidance, such as images of masks known to be ineffective against viral transmission. And members of parliament were frequently captured on camera unmasked or failing to social distance.  

Behavioural changes are a key part of COVID management, and while Barbadians have overwhelmingly complied and adjusted, additional support is required. Recent attempts to improve communication have included regular, but overly long press conferences, loudspeaker campaigns across the country, and dramatic skits available through a variety of media.

To be effective, communication should be clear, concise and consistent, but attempts continue to fall short in these identified areas. Even the recently-passed mask mandate is inconsistent, as it contains a confusingly-worded exception for talking, and support for workers remains poorly organised and lacking.

It seems likely that the ongoing surge in Barbados may be due to specific policy failures, frequently in opposition to expert guidance, and with attempts at correction faring little better. The final hopes now rest in the recently procured vaccine, and that science will finally be enough to overcome fumbles where it has too often been ignored.

Image: Grantley Adams International Airport. Copyright Andre Donowa. Views expressed by guest contributors are not necessarily those of AMG.

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In the dying days of the Trump Presidency, the US State Department designated Cuba a ‘State Sponsor of Terrorism’. Regrettably, the measure will slow efforts by the Biden administration to take a calibrated approach to gradually improving US-Cuba relations.

The decision to do so was made by the outgoing US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, with little external consultation and after months of legal review. It is, by any measure, hard to justify as anything other than a throw of the political dice by someone who believes himself to be in the running as the next Republican Presidential candidate.

In his 11 January statement, Mr Pompeo said that Cuba has “repeatedly provided support for acts of international terrorism in granting safe harbour to terrorists”.

The former US Secretary of State additionally indicated that by supporting Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, Cuba had enabled “a permissive environment for international terrorists to live and thrive within Venezuela.” He also justified his decision by referencing Cuba not having extradited ten Colombian ELN guerrilla leaders from Havana when peace talks with the Colombian government broke down in 2017: a charge that sought to set aside the existence of protocols agreed by all parties guaranteeing safe passage home for every participant.

Not only does the decision broaden the US definition of terrorism, but as Humberto de la Calle, a former Colombian Vice President and peace negotiator pointed out, it threatens future peace negotiations. He observes that if any country that facilitates peace efforts runs the risk of being designated in this way, they will think twice before providing future support.

Effect of sanctions: The decision has the legal effect of subjecting Cuba to sanctions that penalise persons and countries engaging in certain trade with Cuba, restricts US foreign assistance, bans defence exports and sales, and imposes export controls on some dual-use items. It also requires the US to oppose loans to Cuba by institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

The direct impact is therefore largely academic, but it effectively chills relations, causes uncertainty among international investors and financial institutions, and makes more difficult the gradual easing of restrictions.

The decision was fiercely rejected by the Cuban government and met with dismay by countries around the world hoping for an improvement in US-Cuba relations.

President Díaz-Canel said on Twitter that the “cynical categorisation (of Cuba) as a State sponsor of terrorism” was “the death throes of a failed and corrupt administration committed to the Cuban mafia in Miami”. Also writing on Twitter, Cuba’s Foreign Minister, Bruno Rodríguez noted that the US decision would be recognised as “political opportunism” by those “who are honestly concerned about the scourge of terrorism and its victims.”

Criticism came too from the new Chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Congressman Gregory Meeks and other members of the House and Senate. In an interview, Representative Meeks told Associated Press that the move sought only to tie the hands of the Biden administration.
He also described the decision, taken less than a week after President Trump had “incited a domestic terror attack on the US Capitol”, as “hypocrisy”.

Toward a new Cuban policy: Over the last four years, the Trump Administration has ratcheted up the pressure on Cuba to the point of causing real hardship to the Cuban people in the form of energy and food shortages, causing potential instability and, at worst, a new migratory crisis.

Apart from consolidating what Russia now likes to call its strategic relationship with Cuba, the tightening of the embargo has pushed Venezuela and Cuba closer together, not least for reasons of economic survival, and seen relations develop with others including China, Turkey, Iran, and Syria, nations the US is unlikely to want to have greater influence in the Americas.

To observe this is not to exonerate the Cuban government from its failure to address earlier the multiple inefficiencies within its over-centralised and bureaucratic socialist system. Nor is to excuse past delays in implementing the essential market and currency reforms now underway, the decentralisation of decision-making to the provinces, or its still cautious embrace of non-state enterprise: all measures that now form a part of a new ‘reordering’ process. Rather, it is to argue that sanctions always fail, have the effect of consolidating power, and harm those least able to cope with their economic and social impact.

During the election campaign, Mr. Biden said that he would promptly reverse the Trump administration’s policies on Cuba that “have inflicted harm on the Cuban people and done nothing to advance democracy and human rights”. Incoming officials have also spoken about easing restrictions on US travel and remittances as a part of an incremental strategy aimed at helping the Cuban people.

Whether this can proceed at pace is now less certain.

The removal of Cuba’s designation as a ‘terrorist state’ requires that a further review be undertaken. More generally, the speed at which action occurs may be governed by political judgments about whether Florida, to which the Trump family has now decamped, is winnable in future, and whether states like Georgia, taken against the odds, can be won again.

The Biden Administration will also need to decide whether it will delink Cuba from its Venezuela strategy or see Cuba as a part of a solution, while addressing pressure for change from powerful lobbies, including the cruise and travel industry, US agriculture, and those in the Democratic Party who want to restore civil society linkages.

CARICOM governments in a recent, unusually strongly worded statement ‘denounced’ the decision to redesignate Cuba as a state sponsor of terrorism, noting that it was misguided, unwarranted and not matched by Cuba’s international conduct. It called for an ‘immediate review’ and ‘the normalisation of relations with Cuba’. Europe, too, wants dialogue and a more rational approach.

President Biden has many difficult problems to address but has said that he wants to pursue a collegiate strategy with partners around the world. By any measure, a unilateral policy that has failed for over 60 years, and which has demonstrably not helped the Cuban people requires urgent review. The upcoming Summit of the Americas offers the US President an opportunity to indicate his future intent.

Image credit: Pedro Szekely

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WASHINGTON, D.C. — Pressure is building to hold the Organization of American States (OAS) and its Secretary General, Luis Almagro, accountable for actions in support of the 2019 coup in Bolivia, says Co-Director of the DC-based Centre for Economic Policy and Research (CEPR), Mark Weisbrot. His comments follow a strong statement on Almagro by Argentinian president Alberto Fernández and a resolution on the OAS passed by the Andean Parliament.

“It is long past time for a thorough and independent inquiry into the OAS’s role in last year’s coup in Bolivia,” Weisbrot stated. “The change in administration in the US presents an opportunity for accountability where it is badly needed.”

“That Almagro remains in the OAS is painful because they were accomplices of the coup in Bolivia,” Argentina president Alberto Fernandez stated earlier this week.

Also this week, the Andean Parliament passed a resolution urging an investigation into the OAS actions. The body requested that each member country’s foreign ministry work to support such an endeavor.

These developments follow a statement from the Grupo de Puebla in October, calling on Almagro to resign, signed by more than two-dozen former presidents, foreign ministers, and political leaders throughout the region.

The calls for an investigation into the OAS follow more than a year of similar calls from members of the US congress. In November 2019, Representative Jan Schakowsky and three other members sent a list of 11 questions to the OAS, seeking clarity over their role in the 2019 elections.

The OAS has failed to respond to these questions, including in July of this year, when OAS electoral officials met with congressional staff. In September, Schakowsky and Representative Jesus “Chuy” Garcia called for a congressional inquiry into the OAS and Almagro. The US provides a majority of the organization’s budget.

One day after Bolivia’s 2019 elections, the OAS electoral observation mission denounced an “inexplicable” change in the trend of the vote count. The allegation, which proved to be false, “fueled a chain of events that changed the South American nation’s history,” the New York Times later reported. The OAS later produced a deeply flawed audit of the electoral process, which was used to justify the November 2019 ouster of Evo Morales.

As Secretary General of the OAS, Almagro worked to legitimize the resulting de facto government despite widespread political persecution and violations of human rights. In March 2020, Almagro was reelected for another five-year term atop the hemispheric body. The Trump administration offered significant diplomatic support for his reelection.

The statement by Fernández and the Andean Parliament resolution come on the heels of a Mexican senior diplomat’s speech at the Organization of American States’ annual General Assembly, in which he strongly criticized Almagro’s record as Secretary General and called on him to “submit to a process of self-criticism based on his actions against the OAS Charter and the harm that he has done to Bolivia’s democracy, to determine if he still has the necessary moral authority to lead this organization.”

In February of this year the Mexican government formally requested that the OAS Secretary General’s Office commission an independent analysis of the findings of the OAS electoral observation mission in Bolivia, but received no response.

“Throughout the Trump presidency, Almagro cozied up to the extreme right in the hemisphere, including here in Washington ” Weisbrot noted. “The question for the incoming Biden administration is if they are going to accept the severe damage to democracy and human rights that was done by Trump and his allies, or if they will support regional and congressional demands for an investigation.”

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It is easy to share the excitement felt across the Caribbean at President-elect Joe Biden’s victory in the US polls.

However, a calmer voice within suggests that while the outcome will bring some short-term, big-picture policy gains for the region, the extreme political polarisation that the election highlighted does not bode well for the country that matters most to the region.

That said, and despite Mr Trump’s apparent interest in a confused and vindictive transition process, Mr Biden is already advancing plans in several policy areas of general significance to the Caribbean. These relate to climate change, addressing COVID-19 and the roll out of a vaccine, and stimulating the US  economy.

In the case of climate change, Mr Biden will reverse the Trump Administration’s withdrawal from the 2016 Paris climate accord and seek a significant role in the delayed COP-26 global climate summit, now to be held in Glasgow in November 2021.  The President-elect has already said that he will ‘listen to science’, and stated his intention for the US to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by the middle of the century through radical reform measures, and to integrate climate change targets with US foreign policy.

The incoming administration is expected to rejoin the World Health Organisation, establish a new COVID-19 task force, and allocate US$25bn for vaccine development and distribution. It will probably also support the World Health Organisation’s COVAX facility, which will benefit most Caribbean nations by providing significant quantities of vaccines as they become available, at a reduced cost.

Assuming that the US Congress can agree, the region also stands to benefit indirectly from the Biden presidency’s intention to deliver a package of domestic measures aimed at stimulating post-pandemic economic growth. This and a possible vaccine should enable the Caribbean, two years out, to see the return of significant demand for US travel to the Caribbean.

Of similar importance to the Caribbean will be a change in US government values in the form of a commitment to multilateralism, an end to the induced polarisation in organisations like the Organisation of American States, the reassertion of ethical values on Black lives and gender equality, and respect for, and support for, allies.

Although easy to overstate, given the global pressures they will face, Biden and Harris know and understand what motivates and what matters to the region. In addition, the often-underestimated importance of the expert advice and analysis provided by long-suffering career diplomats in the Caribbean and the US is now expected to be better heard.

On trade and investment policy, the tone and approach of the Biden presidency will be different and linked less transactionally to the USA’s security and political concerns. However, there is little reason to believe that the new administration will  do anything other than continue to secure the hemisphere as an integrated special trading partner in order to lessen Chinese influence, stimulate near-shoring, and continue existing policies that support a central developmental role for the US private sector.

In contrast, the coercive and regionally-divisive approach taken by President Trump, in seeking a coalition of willing Caribbean states who were prepared to trade off an improved economic relationship to support US trade, political and security objectives, is expected to end. Despite this, the pressures in relation to Chinese 5G and other emerging technologies will continue, albeit based on a common Western  approach to investment screening.

On security, the US’s regional and hemispheric concerns are unlikely to alter. However, of particular significance to the Caribbean is an awareness in the Biden camp that the vacuum created by isolating Venezuela and Cuba has created a destabilising refugee crisis, citizen poverty and instability, while offering geopolitical opportunity to Russia, China, Iran and Turkey.

Specifically, on Cuba, the Biden team made clear that it wants to restore a working relationship over time, but that this cannot be the same as existed under President Obama. As in the case of Venezuela, this may involve a negotiated step-by-step approach that seeks to ease tensions, address the US refugee crisis, establish multilateral support for the Cuban people, and slowly restoring travel, trade and limited forms of cooperation.

What this caution reflects is concern among Democrats that the Cuban-American vote in Florida and voter perceptions of ‘socialism’ impacted their performance in what was once a swing state. Although Cuba has yet to say more about the election outcome, one interesting commentary in Cubadebate state-media suggested that misplaced political perceptions about a relatively-small group of Cuban-Americans in Florida may determine future US-Cuba policy.

‘By focusing on that tiny (Cuban-American) vote, in national terms, both parties are unaware of the position of broad sectors of US voters who favour the most normalised relationship possible with Cuba and who have specific interests in business, science, culture, academic relations, health and other sectors.’
— Cubadebate

More generally the Biden presidency is expected to continue the process of strategic reorientation, started under President Obama, which recognised that the US would cease to be the sole global hegemon and that it needs to address China’s rapid technological advance.

Caribbean leaders have congratulated President-elect Biden and, in private, are now looking forward to a period in which many of the economic and political issues that matter most to the region will receive a more sympathetic, less-transactional hearing in Washington.

However, it is far from clear, even with a friend in the White House, whether a divided and poorly integrated Caribbean still struggling to overcome the pandemic has the energy and leverage to successfully prosecute its case.

Beyond the good news, the Caribbean urgently needs to end its graduation out of concessional financing. It also needs a well-supported post-pandemic recovery package, and it has to convince Washington that  US, Chinese, European and other investment all have a future place in the region. The Caribbean needs to engage now.

Image credit: Ted Eytan

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The ranking marks the eighth time since 2009 that the country has topped the Caribbean sub-region in the CPI index. The Bahamas and St.Vincent & the Grenadines round out the top three, while Guyana, the Dominican Republic and Haiti were perceived to have the highest levels of public corruption in the sub-region.

Caribbean sub-region rankings
Transparency International Corruption Perception Index, 2018 

Adapted from Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index, 2018
Antigua & Barbuda, St Kitts & Nevis and Belize were not assessed*

The CPI is based on surveys and assessments that seek to gauge the extent of bribery; the diversion of public funds; the use of public office for private gain; nepotism in the civil service, and the influence of private interests in a state’s decision-making process.

It also considers measures to combat corruption such as integrity legislation, effective prosecution of corrupt officials, and financial disclosure laws.

The index is not without its critics. Perception is not always reality, and experts such as Dan Hough at the Sussex Centre for the Study of Corruption have long considered the CPI to be misleading:

“Corruption is complex, multifaceted and riddled with nuance, and this makes aggregate indicators, such as the CPI, problematic.”

—Prof. Dan Hough, writing for the Washington Post

Hough sees greater value in mechanisms that track where public funds are allocated, and how government contracts and tenders are awarded: all metrics which are unaccounted for in the CPI. It is also worth noting that these and other allegations of corruption were central campaign themes in Barbados’ 2018 general elections, and proposed legislative remedies to address integrity in public life are still pending.

Image credit and copyright: West Wing of Parliament Buildings of Barbados, Richard F Ebert

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