Daniel Michaeli: Asia Ruminations

Legacies of War: Yasukuni Shrine

Daniel Michaeli — Fri, 20 Aug 2010 23:03:08 +0000

This past Sunday, August 15th, was the 65th anniversary of Japan’s surrender to end World War II, in which tens of millions perished, from Europe and North Africa through Russia to Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, and the United States. In a departure from my usual blogging style, I want to share some more personal reflections on one of the historical legacies that continues to haunt Northeast Asia. On a trip to the region earlier this month, I met with scholars from Japan, China, and Korea, in part to explore the ways ...

Keeping Southeast Asia Peaceful

Daniel Michaeli — Mon, 26 Jul 2010 04:02:33 +0000

Southeast Asians want the United States active and engaged in the region, and the U.S. is clearly trying to deliver. But Southeast Asian countries cannot hope to receive full U.S. support in the South China Sea until they resolve ongoing disputes among themselves. This burst of U.S. activity in Southeast Asia is, in part, a response to China’s recent assertiveness, particularly in the maritime space (more on that here). Southeast Asians hope drawing the United States more deeply into the region can help balance China’s heft in multilateral organizations and deter China ...

U.S.-South Korea Ties Strengthen as China Shirks Responsibility

Daniel Michaeli — Tue, 13 Jul 2010 22:53:53 +0000

On Friday, the UN Security Council came out with a weak statement that failed to assign blame for the attack and sinking of a South Korean naval ship in March. China and Russia declined to participate in an international inquiry, watered down the Security Council statement, and now willfully look the other way as North Korea continues denying its involvement. The Council’s statement mentioned the results of the internationally-backed inquiry that showed a North Korean torpedo was responsible, but that was all. Frankly, Korean president Lee Mung-bak failed to take advantage ...

Progress in the Taiwan Strait

Daniel Michaeli — Wed, 30 Jun 2010 21:43:56 +0000

An Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) between China and Taiwan was signed yesterday in Chongqing, promising a substantial boost to Taiwan’s export industry. (A Taiwan government-sponsored study claims the deal will create 260,000 jobs and add 1.7 percentage points to Taiwan’s GDP growth each year over the next seven years.) This agreement has been called a “game changer” by both proponents and opponents, though it still requires the approval of Taiwan’s legislature. In 2003, China became Taiwan’s largest trading partner, replacing the United States. This is a good thing–it reflects the role ...

Obama Skips Asia (Again)

Daniel Michaeli — Sat, 05 Jun 2010 15:56:36 +0000

The fact that President Obama canceled yet another trip to Asia (after having canceled his March trip and deciding to skip Indonesia in November) is disappointing. This makes sense from the narrow American political perspective; Obama is afraid the Gulf oil spill could become his “Hurricane Katrina” incident, exposing the U.S. government as aloof and unable to respond to crises. But the message sent to the Asia-Pacific region is not a good one. Australia, like the United States, is a “Pacific” but not an “Asian” power. While Japan has jumped at opportunities ...

Don’t Let Iran Hijack the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue

Daniel Michaeli — Mon, 24 May 2010 18:24:35 +0000

Date: 24 May 2010. Publication: The Huffington Post. Authors: Daniel Michaeli and Joel Backaler. Monday’s Strategic and Economic Dialogue between the United States and China provides the Obama administration with an opportunity to forge agreements in a number of areas of crucial significance for both U.S. economic competitiveness and strategic stability in Asia–but only if U.S. negotiators are willing to give non-headline topics the attention they deserve. At this time of economic uncertainty, the future of the American economy is firmly linked to the ability of U.S. companies to compete for marketshare in China, the world’s ...

Give Up the 2006 Futenma Agreement: There’s More to the U.S.-Japan Alliance

Daniel Michaeli — Mon, 10 May 2010 15:18:29 +0000

In negotiations between democracies, the atmosphere and public perceptions of the negotiations can matter even more than their paper outcome. In negotiations with Japan over relocating Futenma, the U.S. Marine Corps air station in the middle of Ginowan City, it’s time for the United States to recognize that. Maintaining an effective relationship with the Japanese public requires a policy change on Futenma relocation. The U.S. bases much percent of its presence in Japan on Okinawa, an island strategically located near the Taiwan Strait. The tactical arguments for why the U.S. marines ...

North Korea’s Chinese Buddies

Daniel Michaeli — Mon, 03 May 2010 21:40:24 +0000

With “a battalion of security guards and female dining companions” aboard his train, North Korea’s leader arrived in China today en-route to Beijing. Kim Jong-il finds himself increasingly under pressure for the sinking of South Korea’s Cheonan in March, isolated by international sanctions, and still reeling from having angered much of North Korea’s elite with last year’s currency fiasco. So Kim would probably be grateful for just about anything Beijing will give him. And reports suggest China has lots of goodies to offer, in exchange for access to minerals and ports ...

Sinking of the Cheonan: Opportunity and Danger

Daniel Michaeli — Fri, 23 Apr 2010 23:36:37 +0000

North Korea has a history of aggressive behavior towards the South. So it would not be entirely out of character for it to have ordered an attack on a South Korean ship in retaliation for a naval skirmish last year, as some are alleging (including a North Korean defector). If it becomes clear that North Korea’s top leaders ordered this attack, with a probable death toll of 46 sailors, the South Korean public will demand a forceful response from President Lee Myung-bak. Since the Cheonan was sunk nearly four weeks ago, ...

China’s Approach to Iran (Radio Interview)

Daniel Michaeli — Fri, 16 Apr 2010 22:09:07 +0000

Media: Voice of America. Subjects: Chinese interests in the Middle East, the China-Iran economic relationship, Iran, Iran’s nuclear program, and differing Chinese and U.S. foreign policy priorities. Length: 2:43. This segment on China’s interests in Iran, including the energy trading relationship, includes interviews with Erica Downs of the Brookings Institution and myself. Note: If you have trouble with the embedded MP3 file above, you can open or download the interview directly here. See the written report on Voice of America’s web site here.