Well, um … that said, Association Trends asked if I would provide a few “predictions” for associations, and they are now online along with several others from smarter folks. You need a subscription to read my full reasoning behind each of my (not-very-earth-shattering) forecasts, but here’s the short version:

• Most “committees” will no longer exist
• “Mobile” will be the primary association communications channel
• What’s “free” and what’s “paid” will look very different
• Niches will grow in importance relative to the mass market
• Geography is no longer that important, and as a result local components will focus on active, valuable and sustainable products and services, or else fade away
• Leadership development models will change by necessity, because few people want to make multi-year commitments
• The line between “member” and “customer” will become even more blurred

(Wow, I use a lot of “quotes.”)

Thanks to Jill and Edd at Trends, and by the way — congrats to this year’s crop of Trends “Young & Aspiring Association Professionals.” Some impressive folks!

This attempt to “crowdsource” the keynote selection is an admirable experiment, though I would much rather vote on workshop topics at a conference, since the workshops are of paramount importance to me as a participant, and they are also where I’m most likely dissatisfied. Besides, I looked at their list of candidate speakers and have no idea who 99.99% of them are. I’d rather vote on topics and let the experts on staff find the appropriate speaker.

But ASAE’s question has gotten me to think about who I would like to hear from at a meeting . One thing I can say has become clear to me — as I embrace my mantle of  ”grumpiness” — is that the longer I work in associations, the less I want to hear from association executives or association consultants. 

No,whether it’s a workshop or keynote, I’d much rather hear from people who don’t work for associations, but who have something to say that associations can learn from. Although to be honest, the people I do want to hear from probably won’t be as forthcoming (and therefore as useful) as I would like.

Who would I like to hear from?

Well, I’d like to hear from Jeff Bezos, or somebody from Amazon, with an honest assessment of where book retailing is going. I want to know more than the hype about the Kindle (which I dearly love, by the way). I want to know why, as a publisher (and textbook publisher to boot), I should embrace a monopolistic business model that provides dramatically lower margins and locks in books with DRM. I’m not saying this as a challenge or an attempt to avoid any inevitabilities with the coming e-book revolution or whatever. I will adapt with the market’s realities, because hey, that’s what you gotta do. But I want to hear Amazon specifically address the market they are working to create, and how — as a retailer that depends on product created by publishers — they believe publishers can be successful in that market.

I’d like to hear from a successful niche market exploiter, like Chris Kimball of Cook’s Illustrated, who I’ve written about several times. They turned a very specific kind of knowledge into a miniature membership empire by foregoing the obvious (advertising? nah). How? What mistakes have they made? How are they succeeding with a closed loop of expertise in a world of free-for-all opinion sharing? (Or are they?)

I’d like to hear from the organizers of TED and/or SXSW on how they built their meetings into can’t-miss festivals of eggheady-goodness (TED) or irresistible weirdness (SXSW). Not that I think much of what they do is all that applicable to association meetings. (They’re TED, you’re not. Get over it.) But some of it’s gotta be, right?

I’d like to hear from Bob Dole and Tom Daschle how they managed to reach an agreement on a contentious issue like healthcare when they began from such different places. Not that their agreement has amounted to much in terms of influencing the current debate, but still, the process of how it happened has to offer some lessons.

I’d like to hear from this little company in New Zealand that is using laser cutters to make “on demand manufacturing” a reality for people all over the world. On. Demand. Manufacturing. I have no idea if this particular company is going to flop or not, but the potential of this technology is even more fundamentally disruptive – across global borders — than the Internet was, in my opinion. Yeah, maybe right now they’re being used to create $200 wooden toy castles, but it wasn’t that long ago that the Internet was being used primarily as a way to share pornographic images via CompuServe while skirting local obscenity laws. This could affect all industries, and everyone who works for those industries. So yeah, I’d like to hear from them.

I guess that I’d most like to hear from people who aren’t necessarily professional speakers, who don’t necessarily have bestselling books, who definitely don’t work for associations, but who have something important to tell those of us who do — whether they realize it or not.

But just think — if you go to the Great Ideas Conference and the keynote’s a hit, you can take credit for it. And if it’s a dud, you can blame everyone else. Now, is that association management, or what?

Well, those who argue that lifestage is more important than birth year in determining personal attitudes and behavior can take comfort in the fact that apparently this form of mental miasma is a byproduct of the aging process — because as us Xers hit mid-life, it seems now it is our turn to whine!

It’s a good thing that this conversation reminded me of the self-importance of boomers back in the day, because as I prepare to turn 40 next month you might have been in danger of receiving another slightly sappy (and ultimately pointless) post on the relentless march of time.

But you won’t have to worry about it, because now it’s clear – I need to get over myself! I’m going to turn 40, but what the hell, it beats the alternative, I’ve got great friends and family, a rewarding (in every sense of the term) career, a fantastic position where I have a lot of fun, and when I do turn 40, I’ll be doing it in Paris. Life is sweet!