If you’ve been stopping by Aston Villa Central for a while now you would have noticed something amiss this past weekend and may have assumed that I had joined Darren Bent on a quick shopping jaunt.

I had no such luck I’m afraid. I did indeed watch the 2-0 loss at the hands of Liverpool, but for the first time in a few years I hadn’t done any preparation before the game. I didn’t relay the teamsheets before kick off. I wasn’t on Twitter at any point. I wasn’t monitoring stats during the game. I wasn’t analysing the tactics. I wasn’t thinking about what to write after the final whistle, let alone writing anything before the game finished.

I just sat on my sofa, the HD images of the game on my laptop coming via someone in Russia. The headphones kept the commentary I couldn’t understand in and the rest of the world out. Some might describe it as a bizarre, self-imposed Clockwork Orange style punishment, but I couldn’t possibly comment.

Just me and thee, Villa, just me and thee.

I stayed there, mostly motionless for the best part of two hours, as the game unfolded in tragically predictable fashion. And when it was over, I shut the computer down, closed the lid and went out with my wife.

When I returned home, Aston Villa Football Club still existed and the world was still spinning.

It was all quite liberating.

Obviously my enthusiasm for this blogging malarky is at an all time low, that’s the bottom line. I’ve been “phoning it in” for a while now, so I’ve taken the decision to put us all out of our misery here and make this the final post of 2011.

I’m going to spend the next couple of weeks looking for a way to convey the thoughts I have bouncing around this mush I call a brain at the moment. If successful, I honestly don’t know whether I’ll produce the manifesto for a new beginning or a eulogy, I guess we’ll all find out in the new year.

For now, I’d like to sincerely thank all readers, new and old, regular and occasional, for all of your support, opinions and conversation over the past few years, here and elsewhere on the interwebz. Whether you’ve agreed or disagreed, you’ve made this an interesting and rewarding experience. I hope you all find a way to enjoy the festive period despite the depressing situation we find our football club in.

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.

(Comments are closed as I’ve no desire to receive abuse for choosing to take a break right now, nor am I fishing for compliments. Go enjoy your Christmas. Go on now, there’s nothing to see here. UTV)

It was a much improved performance during the first half, and fans crying out for a 4-4-2 system will be quick to point out that was the case today with Marc Albrighton on the right and Charles N’Zogbia on the left. However, it has to be said that Bolton looked entirely worthy of the 19th place they held in the league coming into this one.

Still, by the break, with scoreline reading 2-0, it had been a very even encounter statistically, we had just done a much better job of carving out chances whilst Bolton struggled to do much of anything in the final third. In truth, we could, and probably should, have been another goal or two ahead.

The opening goal was superb. Following a brief spell of possession, Chris Herd found Gabby in space on the left and though his square ball was just behind Darren Bent, Marc Albrighton had got himself in position to fire in from close range.

Stiliyan Petrov chalked up his third of the season with another shot from distance, this time taking a slight nick off of Gary Cahill on the way in. As they say, they all count.

Bolton looked much brighter after the break and you might say that the goal, as typical as it was for us to concede, was coming. Zat Knight attempted to stroke in from a corner only for the ball to disappear into the crowded box. Lines were not cleared, Klasnic pounced to stab past the helpless Guzan.

A typically nervy last half hour then. Bolton pushed for an equaliser, but always looked vulnerable on the counter. In truth, both sides created chances they should have done better with, but neither side were able to alter the scoreline.

So, a much needed win, the first away from Villa Park this season, and obvious positives can be extracted. That said, Bolton looked truly awful during much of the first half and we were gifted a number of chances that we should have buried. Other teams, notably the ones coming up, will not be so generous.

Nevertheless, it’s three points in the bag, a rare experience this season, so let’s just soak it up and enjoy it for now. If it’s belief and confidence that we really need, I hope everyone involved extracts what they need from this and takes it into the remaining games of the year.

Key Events Timeline

93′ YELLOW CARD Marc Albrighton.
90′ YELLOW CARD Gabby Agbonlahor.
81′ SUBSTITUTION Darren Bent off, Emile Heskey on.
79′ SUBSTITUTION Ivan Klasnic off, David Ngog on.
71′ SUBSTITUTION Tuncay off, Gael Kakuta on.
55′ GOAL Ivan Klasnic. Zat Knight’s scuffed shot from a corner went into a crowd, pinged around, lines not clear, Klasnic stabbed in from close range.
39′ GOAL Stiliyan Petrov.
33′ GOAL Marc Albrighton. Ball moved to the left where Gabby had drifted wide, his cut back behind Bent, who got a steadying touch on it, before Marc Albrighton banged it in.
27′ YELLOW CARD Mark Davies.

Bolton: Jaaskelainen, Boyata, Cahill, Knight, Robinson, Tuncay, M Davies, Pratley, Eagles, K Davies, Klasnic. Subs: Bogdan, Steinsson, Muamba, Petrov, Kakuta, O’Halloran, Ngog.

Aston Villa: Guzan, Hutton, Collins, Dunne, Warnock, Albrighton, Herd, Petrov, N’Zogbia, Agbonlahor, Bent. Subs: Marshall, Clark, Ireland, Bannan, Delfouneso, Weimann, Heskey.

It looks like it’s a straightforward 4-4-2 from McLeish this week, and with Herd providing the muscle and Petrov back in the starting line-up, it’s Barry Bannan that’s had to miss out.

Castrol Football Prediction

Form

Last ten results for this fixture:

Worryingly, Shay Given was carried off after his hamstring went shortly before half time. Brad Guzan didn’t have much to do, not really, but we’ll probably get to see him in goal for a few games now.

Chris Herd also limped off, although he may have just been feeling sorry for himself after a less than awesome display. Jermaine Jenas was also replaced due to injury, it looked like something in his ankle went and he’ll surely be out again now.

Charles N’Zogbia was excluded from the squad to sit on the naughty step for missing some appointment or other during the week. Details are sketchy.

Phil Jones got the only goal. It was tame. Nani romped into space behind Alan Hutton and sat a nice ball up for Jones to volley in from close range unchallenged. Simple enough.

There was the usual running about a bit at the end, but it was aimless and delivered no more than it deserved. This is beyond tedious now. Barcelona are currently 2-0 up against Levante, I’m going to watch that. At least there’s some joy there.

Timeline: Key Events

79′ SUBSTITUTION Ashley Young off / Danny Welbeck on.
64′ SUBSTITUTION Rio Ferdinand off / Ryan Giggs on.
64′ SUBSTITUTION Jermaine Jenas off / Emile Heskey on. Injury.
59′ SUBSTITUTION Chris Herd off / Stiliyan Petrov on. Herd limped straight off down the tunnel.
38′ SUBSTITUTION Shay Given off / Brad Guzan on. Hamstring.
20′ GOAL Phil Jones. Nani in behind Hutton, a simple cross into the box, Phil Jones volley’s calmly in unmarked.
12′ SUBSTITUTION Javier Hernández off / Antonio Valencia on. Ankle injury.

Aston Villa: Given, Hutton, Dunne, Collins, Warnock, Herd, Jenas, Albrighton, Bannan, Agbonlahor, Bent. Subs: Guzan, Cuellar, Clark, Delph, Petrov, Ireland, Heskey.

Man Utd: Lindegaard, Smalling, Ferdinand, Vidic, Evra, Nani, Carrick, Jones, Rooney, Young, Hernandez. Subs: De Gea, Evans, Fletcher, Park, Giggs, Valencia, Welbeck.

Either way, it’s a tough game ahead and I suspect there will be a bigger interest in the manner McLeish approaches the game than any real expectation in getting much from it.

The two managers go way back of course, here’s how they are sending their sides out today in search of the points.

Barry Bannan is back in the starting line-up and Marc Albrighton gets his first Premier League start of 2011/12. With Jermaine Jenas also in the XI, it’s certainly a positive teamsheet from McLeish.

Castrol Football Prediction

Form

Last ten results for this fixture:

At the onset of his tenure, it wouldn’t have taken much effort to find predictions about the brand of football Alex McLeish’s Aston Villa side were destined to serve up. None were particularly exciting or encouraging.

I prefer a ‘wait and see’ policy myself, but I think we’re far enough into the season now to look at some statistics and draw some conclusions.

In this post, we’ll focus on the number of attempted passes that have been hit long as a percentage of the total attempted passes during a game on average. The data is sourced from Opta via WhoScored.

We’ll look in a bit more detail at the end of the post, but it’s worth keeping in mind for now that we’ve actually seen the same number of long passes per game on average during 2011/12 as we did during 2009/10 under Martin O’Neill. The difference is the proportion of total passes those long balls represent.

2011/12

Let’s start with the current picture, as of last weekend’s games. Here’s how all 20 Premier League teams shape up when it comes to their preference for the long ball:

No surprise to find Stoke at the top of table, hitting 22.19% of their passes long. They’re pretty consistent too; they were top of the table in 2010/11 with 21.50%, and also in 2009/10 with 22.77%.

The concern, and it will surprise few, is that we’re part of a group of four teams behind Stoke who are all hitting it long more than 17% of the time. In our case it’s 18.21%.

You may be surprised to learn that the leaders when it comes to the actual number of passes hit long per game so far this season are Tottenham and Norwich, both with 74 per game.

2010/11

Would anyone be shocked to find McLeish’s old team leading the pack behind Stoke last season? The only other team to hit more than one in five of their passes long, McLeish’s Birmingham side registered 20.15% on the long ball scale.

Gerard Houllier’s Villa side were in the bottom half with 14.52% of passes hit long, which was an average of 62 per game. Only three sides hit fewer long balls per game; Chelsea (61), Man City (56) and Arsenal (45).

Even Stoke “only” hit 66 passes long per game, but their general lack of possession means those passes represent a high percentage of the total.

The “champion” when it comes to the actual number of passes hit long per game last season was, you’ve guessed it, Birmingham City with 82.

However, it should be noted that Blackpool, a team that won many plaudits for their approach and style of play, gave Birmingham a good run for their money by hitting 80 long balls per game themselves.

Does that last fact, along with Norwich’s position this season, challenge a few perceptions? It probably should.

2009/10

Martin O’Neill’s side were often labelled a “long ball team”, famously by Arsene Wenger on one occasion, and it’s true that he clearly believes in moving the ball from back to front quickly and efficiently. However, I think a distinction can be drawn with McLeish when it comes to purpose and quality. MON certainly sees a greater value in using the flanks.

Again, Birmingham City were near the top of the table, this time hitting it long 19.44% of the time. That’s 76 long passes per game.

Tottenham were kings of the long ball hill in absolute terms though with 79 per game. Roberto Martinez’s Wigan side separated ‘Arry and McLeish with 77 long balls per game.

Again, does this challenge perceptions at all? Were Tottenham a “long ball team” in 2009/10? And if so, who cares, it got them into the Champions League, right?

There’s long ball and then there’s long ball

Not all long balls are equal. For instance, Barry Bannan’s exquisite pass to Marc Albrighton at Craven Cottage last season would be classed as long, but we’d surely watch passes like that all day long. Especially if the net ends up bulging in the same way.

The devil is always in the detail and we could remove the outliers amongst the data if we spent long enough to dive deep enough. However, if you think about the 20 teams on a simple spectrum representing their passing game you’d almost certainly place Stoke at one end and Arsenal at the other.

That’s what this data gives us; the bigger, better quality sides are unsurprisingly closer to Arsenal’s end of the spectrum and the smaller clubs, unable to dominate possession in the same manner, are closer to Stoke. It’s more or less what you’d expect then.

It’s our position on that spectrum which should be of concern. It might also be of concern that McLeish’s Birmingham side resorted to the long ball more frequently in his second Premiership season despite having had more time and money to “build his own team”. It really suggests a modus operandi which is difficult to dispute.

Clues

As we’ve already covered at the top, the 2011/12 version of Aston Villa isn’t hitting any more long balls per game than the 2009/10 version, they just represent a greater proportion of the total passes.

So what’s happened to those other passes?

Here’s how WhoScored breaks down the attempted passes on a per game basis:

The number of short passes compared to the last two seasons is alarming enough, but won’t be a massive surprise. What should be of concern is the lack of crosses and through balls as both of those types of passes lead to a goal scoring opportunity.

The combination of crosses and through balls totalled 29 per game in both 2009/10 and 2010/11, but it’s running at just 20 so far this season. That’s a 31% reduction in the type of passes which lead directly to scoring goals.

During 2009/10 we averaged 13.08 shots per game, 4.16 on target, and in 2010/11 it was 13.32 with 4.34 on target per game. This season, we’re down to 11.15 shots per game and just 2.92 on target. It’s frankly astonishing that we’ve actually scored one goal more than at the same point last season.

We’ve got Gabby’s massively improved form, Darren Bent’s deadliness (not withstanding a few sitters missed), and Stiliyan Petrov managing to get a couple of his weekly 30-yarders on target to thank for that.

Shackles

We’ll finish here with a little subjectivity. It may be far from earth-shattering, but it’s my opinion that this side are inhibited by an overly cautious approach. I’m not going to go so far as to call it ‘negativity’ – with the exception of White Hart Lane – but the players are certainly not being encouraged to express themselves.

Full backs are held deep, the lack of true width has been well covered in the past, but surely there’s no bigger anchor to ambition at the moment than plonking Emile Heskey in where we’re crying out for a playmaker. With all due respect to Heskey, natch. Additionally, the silly mistakes gifting possession back to our opponents are surely a sign of tension; a fear of making a mistake. Ironically.

McLeish has described the cameos in Swansea from Barry Bannan and Jermaine Jenas as “food for thought”. I sincerely hope he pigs out. I mean really, really dives in like he’s eating his last meal. Because there’s no shortage of fans who will wish that to be the case, metaphorically speaking of course.

He’s correctly noted the incisive passing from Bannan in particular; the young Scot actually made more key passes than anyone involved despite not getting on the pitch until the 79th minute.

We clearly need more of that, but it will be for nothing if the players are shackled and not allowed to express themselves. The long balls themselves are not the problem so much as there is precious little else.

Please, Mr. McLeish, these players are better than than they’re being allowed to show. Please let them play some football.

Please?

This means that we’ll have the advantage of playing the single-legged quarter final at Villa Park, more than likely against Marseille. There’s just one game left in Group 1, Marseille will face Celtic with second place secured and needing to beat the Scots by eight clear goals to overtake Barcelona in first place.

Sporting Lisbon and Liverpool qualified from Group 2, but it’s yet to be decided who will join Tottenham from Group 4. Inter Milan are in the driving seat at the moment with three games still in hand.

However it turns out, it’s fantastic achievement to make the quarter finals and huge boost to win the home advantage. Hopefully the fans will turn out in numbers to make it worthwhile.

We need all the good news we can get at the moment, so well done to everyone involved.

Villa looked better after the break, with Gabby Agbonlahor once again showing the way in the final third. One or two chances were created, the ball was passed around a bit, but it wasn’t until Jermaine Jenas and Barry Bannan came on that we got to see a little creativity.

The best two chances of the game probably fell to Leroy Lita, but neither side will look to many opportunities squandered with regret. In the end, given the news that overshadowed the match, the outcome was one many would have hoped for.

There is still much work to be done with this Villa side though, the shackles firmly placed on the team during the opening spell; a game plan seemingly being to make it half time level and then go from there.

The fans crave more adventure.

Timeline: Key Events

93′ YELLOW CARD James Collins.
82′ SUBSTITUTION Nathan Dyer off / Wayne Routledge on.
79′ SUBSTITUTION Fabian Delph off / Barry Bannan on.
69′ SUBSTITUTION Emile Heskey off / Jermaine Jenas on.
67′ YELLOW CARD Gary Monk.
53′ SUBSTITUTION Danny Graham off / Leroy Lita on.
42′ YELLOW CARD Ashley Richards.
37′ YELLOW CARD Richard Dunne.
27′ SUBSTITUTION Angel Rangel off / Ashley Richards on.
15′ YELLOW CARD Alan Hutton.
8′ SUBSTITUTION Scott Sinclar.
3′ YELLOW CARD Fabian Delph.

Swansea: Vorm, Rangel, Monk, Williams, Taylor, Britton, Allen, Dyer, Gower, Sinclair, Graham. Subs: Dobbie, Routledge, Lita, Moore, Tremmel, Richards, Moras.

Aston Villa: Given, Hutton, Collins, Dunne, Warnock, Herd, Delph, N’Zogbia, Heskey, Agbonlahor, Bent. Subs: Guzan, Clark, Cuellar, Bannan, Albrighton, Jenas, Delfouneso.

Alex McLeish has promised a better performance than we were treated to at White Hart Lane and, in all honesty, it would be difficult to be much worse. It will certainly be a contrast in styles as Brendan Rogers’ Swansea side like to stroke the ball around a bit, building from the back.

Only Arsenal, Man City and Chelsea resort to long balls less frequently. McLeish’s Villa, on the other hand, are only beaten in tendency to hit it long by Stoke, Norwich and Blackburn.

Fortunately, for all their possession and passing football, the home side barely generate more chances that Villa, averaging 3.7 shots on target per game compared to our 3.0; ranking 18th and 19th respectively.

Here’s how the two managers are sending their teams out today:

Castrol Football Prediction

Form

Last five results for this fixture:

It’s been the week of loans in B6 with no less than four players heading out to get some competitive football elsewhere.

Firstly, Habib Beye went to Doncaster, initially until January, but hopefully a deal to take him through to the end of the season (and his Villa contract) won’t be out of the question. Assuming he’s not a disaster.

Then Nathan Baker, closely followed by Shane Lowry, made a temporary switch to Milwall; Baker for a month, Lowry just into the new year. Three loans, all good stuff I’m sure you’ll agree. But then there was a fourth; man of the moment, Gary Gardner, has joined Coventry on loan until January 3rd.

This news was about as welcome as a piranha in a bidet to a lot of fans who were hopeful of, even demanding in many cases, his immediate inclusion in the first team.

Another stick to beat the manager with, then. It’s reminiscent of Barry Bannan joining Leeds towards the end of last season, just as many fans were calling for him to be in the first team, seemingly to be the saviour of our season.

Let’s hope Gardner gets more out of his spell at Coventry than Bannan did at Leeds.

Development Strategy

The benefits of going out on loan are obvious, but there’s no rule that says a player has to do so to fulfill his potential. It really comes down to circumstance and, hopefully, a planned strategy.

A player who has spoken highly of Gardner, having played together through the various England youth ranks, is Jack Wilshere. They happen to be the same age (Wilshere is six months older) and play in central midfield, but Wilshere is playing Champions League and is a full international now.

Clearly age isn’t a barrier; if you’re good enough you’re most definitely old enough. However, Wilshere arguably had fewer established first teamers ahead of him as he competed for a place in the team and Arsenal are battling on more fronts so offer greater opportunity to blend in the youngsters. And developing youngsters is something of a forte of Arsenal under Arsene Wenger, after all.

Whether it was through design (i.e. planning and strategy) or happenstance (i.e. there was no room at the inn), I don’t know, but he didn’t get to establish himself in the first team properly without going out on loan to Bolton first.

Stevie G

Gardner has been likened to Steven Gerrard in style of play and, although it’s going back a bit now, he was a player who didn’t go out on loan and was brought into the first team by Gerard Houllier as an 18 year old instead.

However, during his first season, 1998/99, he only started four Premiership games, and played the full 90 minutes just once; against Derby County in March ’99. By the end of his first senior season, Gerrard had played a total of 365 minutes of league football with 89% of those earned during the second half of the season in 1999.

To put that in some perspective, Bannan played 638 minutes last season, although a lot of his time on the pitch came courtesy of injuries to Stiliyan Petrov and Nigel Reo-Coker. That’s happenstance.

World Cup

Gardner was withdrawn from England’s U20 World Cup squad and travelled to Hong Kong for pre-season with the first team instead. Although it wasn’t likely that he would be involved in the first team straight away, it was clear he was in the plans and needed to be integrated “just in case”.

His star has risen dramatically recently with goal scoring performances in the NextGen Series and with England U21s, but with limited reserve fixtures remaining in 2011 and the NextGen series on hiatus until the quarter finals next year, there isn’t much scope outside of the first team for playing time.

I suppose the question, then, was whether to bring him straight into the first team now, disposing someone like Stephen Ireland, Fabian Delph or Chris Herd of their place, or leave things as they are and get him some playing time elsewhere.

It might have been very popular with the fans to bring him in now, and McLeish could certainly do with banking some goodwill, but that doesn’t necessarily make it the smartest thing to do from a squad management perspective with the bulk of the season still ahead of us.

To me, it’s a no-brainer. The risk of ruining the young player and/or squad harmony by bringing him in now is greater than the benefit he’s likely to bring in the next month or so. There really is no rush.

Far better to get him some more experience and bring him in as an improved player later on as the season takes its toll on the legs of the current team.

In the mean time, trust me, I don’t get any more pleasure from watching Emile Heksey lumbering around midfield than anyone else, but if McLeish is playing the big man in place of N’Zogbia, Albrighton or Ireland now, I don’t see him suddenly playing Gardner in his place.

So, with that in mind, what’s the point of him sitting on the bench watching Premiership games, perhaps grabbing the odd minute here and there, when he could be actually playing in Championship?