I put this blog on hiatus shortly before Christmas last year with the promise of being back in the new year with a clearer idea for the future. This might not be what anyone thinks of as “the new year”, but here I am and it’s not last year.

I’ve written and re-written this post countless times, but it always degenerates into a verbose, self-indulgent trip down memory lane. That isn’t what I want to do, I’ll try to keep it brief, but I can’t leave it any longer…

Despite the lessons of the recent past, there have been fleeting glimpses of the green shoots of recovery in B6 lately. I’ve been asked whether I’ll be firing up the blog again, and I can’t pretend that I haven’t considered it, but I won’t be. It’s done, it’s run its course.

Looking back to the start, I had several goals in mind when I created Aston Villa Central, but a home for the desktop wallpapers I was experimenting with at the time was chief among them. The stats and tactical analysis was probably secondary, but it grew over time.

Now, I love stats, analytics and chalkboards in football as much as anyone, long time readers will know that, so I’m happy to see the continued growth of interest in trying to understand the game better. But numbers without proper context rarely paint an accurate picture, and the dynamic nature of the beautiful game means there will always be something that analytics can’t measure.

For me, football games are often determined by simple moments. Moments of brilliance, moments of failure. Genius, mistakes. Sometimes it’s a fine line, but either way, it’s these unquantifiable events that we truly love about the game. And, though I’m far from the most accomplished artist, it was largely these types of moments that I tried to capture in most of the wallpapers that started all this way back in 2008.

So now, in a sense, I’m coming full circle.

What Next?

For a long time now I’ve had the idea of creating football art, be it tee-shirts, prints or even canvases; it’s playing with crayons, rather than bashing a keyboard, that I really enjoy.

Taking a break from this blog has given me the space and time to develop a brand which will be my main focus from now on. It’s called ‘Hex‘, and, if you’re interested, you can read a bit more about how the name and identity here. Short version; it’s about an appreciation for geometry in football. Well, kinda.

The first piece of work off the drawing board celebrates a particularly important and pertinent moment for us Villans. By my reckoning, it was about 8.22pm GMT on 26th May 1982 when Peter Withe put the ball past Manfred Müller in Rotterdam to score the goal that would win the European Cup. Some moment. Today (Saturday) marks the 30th anniversary.

Brian Moore’s infamous commentary is emblazoned inside Villa Park itself, I wanted to put it on a tee-shirt, so…

Oh It Must Be

It’s available in multiple colours, in men’s and women’s versions, and you can purchase it from the United Kingdom Store or the United States Store.

Naturally, there are a few more Villa flavoured designs in the pipeline, but I’ll also be pushing into the wider world of football, maybe beyond, we’ll see. My sketchbook really is overflowing with ideas, but, as I’ve discovered, not every idea translates easily to paper, cloth or canvas. It’s a learning curve.

Keeping in touch

I’ll be changing the Twitters around a bit, I’m not 100% settled on the details of that just yet, but if you currently follow @avfccentral, that will remain my main account, but it will get a new name and identity.

If, by any chance, you would like to keep up to date with my current and future projects, including guest writing spots elsewhere, please do subscribe to my blog at AWAY design by using your email address in the box below. (Hopefully it goes without saying that I promise not to spam you or pass on your details to anyone else).

Other than that, all that’s left is to extend my sincere gratitude once again to all readers, old and new, regular and casual, friend and foe. It’s been an interesting and rewarding few years for me personally, I’ve learned an awful lot, and I’ve enjoyed the conversations and debates along the way. I hope we all, as Villa fans, see better days again soon.

UTV

Thank you

Dan

The season from hell is finally over and Alex McLeish’s Aston Villa career has, as expected, been terminated. His tenure has passed on. It’s no more. It has ceased to be. Expired and gone to meet its maker. A stiff, bereft of life. It rests in peace. Its metabolic processes are now history. Kicked the bucket. Shuffled off its mortal coil. Run down the curtain and joined the bleeding choir invisible.

This is an ex-Aston Villa manager.

Today is a very good day.

Official Statement

Aston Villa can confirm that Alex McLeish’s contract has been terminated with immediate effect.

The club has been disappointed with this season’s results, performances and the general message these have sent to our fans.

The board wishes to assure supporters that we are conscious in every sense that Villa expects and deserves more and we will strive to deliver this.

Villa chairman Randy Lerner said: “We need to be clear and candid with ourselves and with supporters about what we have lacked in recent years.

“Compelling play and results that instil a sense of confidence that Villa is on the right track have been plainly absent.

“The most immediate action that we can take is to look carefully at our options in terms of bringing in a new manager who sees the club’s potential and embraces our collective expectations.”

Chief Executive Paul Faulkner said: “We’d like to thank Alex for his hard work and efforts throughout this tough season.

“We are mindful of the club’s need to prepare thoroughly for the new campaign and for the new manager to be able to begin working with the board so that he is quickly immersed in these preparations and also in the long-term objectives of the club.

“Our focus now will be driven by these imperatives and we will update when appropriate.”

If you’ve been stopping by Aston Villa Central for a while now you would have noticed something amiss this past weekend and may have assumed that I had joined Darren Bent on a quick shopping jaunt.

I had no such luck I’m afraid. I did indeed watch the 2-0 loss at the hands of Liverpool, but for the first time in a few years I hadn’t done any preparation before the game. I didn’t relay the teamsheets before kick off. I wasn’t on Twitter at any point. I wasn’t monitoring stats during the game. I wasn’t analysing the tactics. I wasn’t thinking about what to write after the final whistle, let alone writing anything before the game finished.

I just sat on my sofa, the HD images of the game on my laptop coming via someone in Russia. The headphones kept the commentary I couldn’t understand in and the rest of the world out. Some might describe it as a bizarre, self-imposed Clockwork Orange style punishment, but I couldn’t possibly comment.

Just me and thee, Villa, just me and thee.

I stayed there, mostly motionless for the best part of two hours, as the game unfolded in tragically predictable fashion. And when it was over, I shut the computer down, closed the lid and went out with my wife.

When I returned home, Aston Villa Football Club still existed and the world was still spinning.

It was all quite liberating.

Obviously my enthusiasm for this blogging malarky is at an all time low, that’s the bottom line. I’ve been “phoning it in” for a while now, so I’ve taken the decision to put us all out of our misery here and make this the final post of 2011.

I’m going to spend the next couple of weeks looking for a way to convey the thoughts I have bouncing around this mush I call a brain at the moment. If successful, I honestly don’t know whether I’ll produce the manifesto for a new beginning or a eulogy, I guess we’ll all find out in the new year.

For now, I’d like to sincerely thank all readers, new and old, regular and occasional, for all of your support, opinions and conversation over the past few years, here and elsewhere on the interwebz. Whether you’ve agreed or disagreed, you’ve made this an interesting and rewarding experience. I hope you all find a way to enjoy the festive period despite the depressing situation we find our football club in.

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.

(Comments are closed as I’ve no desire to receive abuse for choosing to take a break right now, nor am I fishing for compliments. Go enjoy your Christmas. Go on now, there’s nothing to see here. UTV)

It was a much improved performance during the first half, and fans crying out for a 4-4-2 system will be quick to point out that was the case today with Marc Albrighton on the right and Charles N’Zogbia on the left. However, it has to be said that Bolton looked entirely worthy of the 19th place they held in the league coming into this one.

Still, by the break, with scoreline reading 2-0, it had been a very even encounter statistically, we had just done a much better job of carving out chances whilst Bolton struggled to do much of anything in the final third. In truth, we could, and probably should, have been another goal or two ahead.

The opening goal was superb. Following a brief spell of possession, Chris Herd found Gabby in space on the left and though his square ball was just behind Darren Bent, Marc Albrighton had got himself in position to fire in from close range.

Stiliyan Petrov chalked up his third of the season with another shot from distance, this time taking a slight nick off of Gary Cahill on the way in. As they say, they all count.

Bolton looked much brighter after the break and you might say that the goal, as typical as it was for us to concede, was coming. Zat Knight attempted to stroke in from a corner only for the ball to disappear into the crowded box. Lines were not cleared, Klasnic pounced to stab past the helpless Guzan.

A typically nervy last half hour then. Bolton pushed for an equaliser, but always looked vulnerable on the counter. In truth, both sides created chances they should have done better with, but neither side were able to alter the scoreline.

So, a much needed win, the first away from Villa Park this season, and obvious positives can be extracted. That said, Bolton looked truly awful during much of the first half and we were gifted a number of chances that we should have buried. Other teams, notably the ones coming up, will not be so generous.

Nevertheless, it’s three points in the bag, a rare experience this season, so let’s just soak it up and enjoy it for now. If it’s belief and confidence that we really need, I hope everyone involved extracts what they need from this and takes it into the remaining games of the year.

Key Events Timeline

93′ YELLOW CARD Marc Albrighton.
90′ YELLOW CARD Gabby Agbonlahor.
81′ SUBSTITUTION Darren Bent off, Emile Heskey on.
79′ SUBSTITUTION Ivan Klasnic off, David Ngog on.
71′ SUBSTITUTION Tuncay off, Gael Kakuta on.
55′ GOAL Ivan Klasnic. Zat Knight’s scuffed shot from a corner went into a crowd, pinged around, lines not clear, Klasnic stabbed in from close range.
39′ GOAL Stiliyan Petrov.
33′ GOAL Marc Albrighton. Ball moved to the left where Gabby had drifted wide, his cut back behind Bent, who got a steadying touch on it, before Marc Albrighton banged it in.
27′ YELLOW CARD Mark Davies.

Bolton: Jaaskelainen, Boyata, Cahill, Knight, Robinson, Tuncay, M Davies, Pratley, Eagles, K Davies, Klasnic. Subs: Bogdan, Steinsson, Muamba, Petrov, Kakuta, O’Halloran, Ngog.

Aston Villa: Guzan, Hutton, Collins, Dunne, Warnock, Albrighton, Herd, Petrov, N’Zogbia, Agbonlahor, Bent. Subs: Marshall, Clark, Ireland, Bannan, Delfouneso, Weimann, Heskey.

It looks like it’s a straightforward 4-4-2 from McLeish this week, and with Herd providing the muscle and Petrov back in the starting line-up, it’s Barry Bannan that’s had to miss out.

Castrol Football Prediction

Form

Last ten results for this fixture:

Worryingly, Shay Given was carried off after his hamstring went shortly before half time. Brad Guzan didn’t have much to do, not really, but we’ll probably get to see him in goal for a few games now.

Chris Herd also limped off, although he may have just been feeling sorry for himself after a less than awesome display. Jermaine Jenas was also replaced due to injury, it looked like something in his ankle went and he’ll surely be out again now.

Charles N’Zogbia was excluded from the squad to sit on the naughty step for missing some appointment or other during the week. Details are sketchy.

Phil Jones got the only goal. It was tame. Nani romped into space behind Alan Hutton and sat a nice ball up for Jones to volley in from close range unchallenged. Simple enough.

There was the usual running about a bit at the end, but it was aimless and delivered no more than it deserved. This is beyond tedious now. Barcelona are currently 2-0 up against Levante, I’m going to watch that. At least there’s some joy there.

Timeline: Key Events

79′ SUBSTITUTION Ashley Young off / Danny Welbeck on.
64′ SUBSTITUTION Rio Ferdinand off / Ryan Giggs on.
64′ SUBSTITUTION Jermaine Jenas off / Emile Heskey on. Injury.
59′ SUBSTITUTION Chris Herd off / Stiliyan Petrov on. Herd limped straight off down the tunnel.
38′ SUBSTITUTION Shay Given off / Brad Guzan on. Hamstring.
20′ GOAL Phil Jones. Nani in behind Hutton, a simple cross into the box, Phil Jones volley’s calmly in unmarked.
12′ SUBSTITUTION Javier Hernández off / Antonio Valencia on. Ankle injury.

Aston Villa: Given, Hutton, Dunne, Collins, Warnock, Herd, Jenas, Albrighton, Bannan, Agbonlahor, Bent. Subs: Guzan, Cuellar, Clark, Delph, Petrov, Ireland, Heskey.

Man Utd: Lindegaard, Smalling, Ferdinand, Vidic, Evra, Nani, Carrick, Jones, Rooney, Young, Hernandez. Subs: De Gea, Evans, Fletcher, Park, Giggs, Valencia, Welbeck.

Either way, it’s a tough game ahead and I suspect there will be a bigger interest in the manner McLeish approaches the game than any real expectation in getting much from it.

The two managers go way back of course, here’s how they are sending their sides out today in search of the points.

Barry Bannan is back in the starting line-up and Marc Albrighton gets his first Premier League start of 2011/12. With Jermaine Jenas also in the XI, it’s certainly a positive teamsheet from McLeish.

Castrol Football Prediction

Form

Last ten results for this fixture:

At the onset of his tenure, it wouldn’t have taken much effort to find predictions about the brand of football Alex McLeish’s Aston Villa side were destined to serve up. None were particularly exciting or encouraging.

I prefer a ‘wait and see’ policy myself, but I think we’re far enough into the season now to look at some statistics and draw some conclusions.

In this post, we’ll focus on the number of attempted passes that have been hit long as a percentage of the total attempted passes during a game on average. The data is sourced from Opta via WhoScored.

We’ll look in a bit more detail at the end of the post, but it’s worth keeping in mind for now that we’ve actually seen the same number of long passes per game on average during 2011/12 as we did during 2009/10 under Martin O’Neill. The difference is the proportion of total passes those long balls represent.

2011/12

Let’s start with the current picture, as of last weekend’s games. Here’s how all 20 Premier League teams shape up when it comes to their preference for the long ball:

No surprise to find Stoke at the top of table, hitting 22.19% of their passes long. They’re pretty consistent too; they were top of the table in 2010/11 with 21.50%, and also in 2009/10 with 22.77%.

The concern, and it will surprise few, is that we’re part of a group of four teams behind Stoke who are all hitting it long more than 17% of the time. In our case it’s 18.21%.

You may be surprised to learn that the leaders when it comes to the actual number of passes hit long per game so far this season are Tottenham and Norwich, both with 74 per game.

2010/11

Would anyone be shocked to find McLeish’s old team leading the pack behind Stoke last season? The only other team to hit more than one in five of their passes long, McLeish’s Birmingham side registered 20.15% on the long ball scale.

Gerard Houllier’s Villa side were in the bottom half with 14.52% of passes hit long, which was an average of 62 per game. Only three sides hit fewer long balls per game; Chelsea (61), Man City (56) and Arsenal (45).

Even Stoke “only” hit 66 passes long per game, but their general lack of possession means those passes represent a high percentage of the total.

The “champion” when it comes to the actual number of passes hit long per game last season was, you’ve guessed it, Birmingham City with 82.

However, it should be noted that Blackpool, a team that won many plaudits for their approach and style of play, gave Birmingham a good run for their money by hitting 80 long balls per game themselves.

Does that last fact, along with Norwich’s position this season, challenge a few perceptions? It probably should.

2009/10

Martin O’Neill’s side were often labelled a “long ball team”, famously by Arsene Wenger on one occasion, and it’s true that he clearly believes in moving the ball from back to front quickly and efficiently. However, I think a distinction can be drawn with McLeish when it comes to purpose and quality. MON certainly sees a greater value in using the flanks.

Again, Birmingham City were near the top of the table, this time hitting it long 19.44% of the time. That’s 76 long passes per game.

Tottenham were kings of the long ball hill in absolute terms though with 79 per game. Roberto Martinez’s Wigan side separated ‘Arry and McLeish with 77 long balls per game.

Again, does this challenge perceptions at all? Were Tottenham a “long ball team” in 2009/10? And if so, who cares, it got them into the Champions League, right?

There’s long ball and then there’s long ball

Not all long balls are equal. For instance, Barry Bannan’s exquisite pass to Marc Albrighton at Craven Cottage last season would be classed as long, but we’d surely watch passes like that all day long. Especially if the net ends up bulging in the same way.

The devil is always in the detail and we could remove the outliers amongst the data if we spent long enough to dive deep enough. However, if you think about the 20 teams on a simple spectrum representing their passing game you’d almost certainly place Stoke at one end and Arsenal at the other.

That’s what this data gives us; the bigger, better quality sides are unsurprisingly closer to Arsenal’s end of the spectrum and the smaller clubs, unable to dominate possession in the same manner, are closer to Stoke. It’s more or less what you’d expect then.

It’s our position on that spectrum which should be of concern. It might also be of concern that McLeish’s Birmingham side resorted to the long ball more frequently in his second Premiership season despite having had more time and money to “build his own team”. It really suggests a modus operandi which is difficult to dispute.

Clues

As we’ve already covered at the top, the 2011/12 version of Aston Villa isn’t hitting any more long balls per game than the 2009/10 version, they just represent a greater proportion of the total passes.

So what’s happened to those other passes?

Here’s how WhoScored breaks down the attempted passes on a per game basis:

The number of short passes compared to the last two seasons is alarming enough, but won’t be a massive surprise. What should be of concern is the lack of crosses and through balls as both of those types of passes lead to a goal scoring opportunity.

The combination of crosses and through balls totalled 29 per game in both 2009/10 and 2010/11, but it’s running at just 20 so far this season. That’s a 31% reduction in the type of passes which lead directly to scoring goals.

During 2009/10 we averaged 13.08 shots per game, 4.16 on target, and in 2010/11 it was 13.32 with 4.34 on target per game. This season, we’re down to 11.15 shots per game and just 2.92 on target. It’s frankly astonishing that we’ve actually scored one goal more than at the same point last season.

We’ve got Gabby’s massively improved form, Darren Bent’s deadliness (not withstanding a few sitters missed), and Stiliyan Petrov managing to get a couple of his weekly 30-yarders on target to thank for that.

Shackles

We’ll finish here with a little subjectivity. It may be far from earth-shattering, but it’s my opinion that this side are inhibited by an overly cautious approach. I’m not going to go so far as to call it ‘negativity’ – with the exception of White Hart Lane – but the players are certainly not being encouraged to express themselves.

Full backs are held deep, the lack of true width has been well covered in the past, but surely there’s no bigger anchor to ambition at the moment than plonking Emile Heskey in where we’re crying out for a playmaker. With all due respect to Heskey, natch. Additionally, the silly mistakes gifting possession back to our opponents are surely a sign of tension; a fear of making a mistake. Ironically.

McLeish has described the cameos in Swansea from Barry Bannan and Jermaine Jenas as “food for thought”. I sincerely hope he pigs out. I mean really, really dives in like he’s eating his last meal. Because there’s no shortage of fans who will wish that to be the case, metaphorically speaking of course.

He’s correctly noted the incisive passing from Bannan in particular; the young Scot actually made more key passes than anyone involved despite not getting on the pitch until the 79th minute.

We clearly need more of that, but it will be for nothing if the players are shackled and not allowed to express themselves. The long balls themselves are not the problem so much as there is precious little else.

Please, Mr. McLeish, these players are better than than they’re being allowed to show. Please let them play some football.

Please?

This means that we’ll have the advantage of playing the single-legged quarter final at Villa Park, more than likely against Marseille. There’s just one game left in Group 1, Marseille will face Celtic with second place secured and needing to beat the Scots by eight clear goals to overtake Barcelona in first place.

Sporting Lisbon and Liverpool qualified from Group 2, but it’s yet to be decided who will join Tottenham from Group 4. Inter Milan are in the driving seat at the moment with three games still in hand.

However it turns out, it’s fantastic achievement to make the quarter finals and huge boost to win the home advantage. Hopefully the fans will turn out in numbers to make it worthwhile.

We need all the good news we can get at the moment, so well done to everyone involved.

Villa looked better after the break, with Gabby Agbonlahor once again showing the way in the final third. One or two chances were created, the ball was passed around a bit, but it wasn’t until Jermaine Jenas and Barry Bannan came on that we got to see a little creativity.

The best two chances of the game probably fell to Leroy Lita, but neither side will look to many opportunities squandered with regret. In the end, given the news that overshadowed the match, the outcome was one many would have hoped for.

There is still much work to be done with this Villa side though, the shackles firmly placed on the team during the opening spell; a game plan seemingly being to make it half time level and then go from there.

The fans crave more adventure.

Timeline: Key Events

93′ YELLOW CARD James Collins.
82′ SUBSTITUTION Nathan Dyer off / Wayne Routledge on.
79′ SUBSTITUTION Fabian Delph off / Barry Bannan on.
69′ SUBSTITUTION Emile Heskey off / Jermaine Jenas on.
67′ YELLOW CARD Gary Monk.
53′ SUBSTITUTION Danny Graham off / Leroy Lita on.
42′ YELLOW CARD Ashley Richards.
37′ YELLOW CARD Richard Dunne.
27′ SUBSTITUTION Angel Rangel off / Ashley Richards on.
15′ YELLOW CARD Alan Hutton.
8′ SUBSTITUTION Scott Sinclar.
3′ YELLOW CARD Fabian Delph.

Swansea: Vorm, Rangel, Monk, Williams, Taylor, Britton, Allen, Dyer, Gower, Sinclair, Graham. Subs: Dobbie, Routledge, Lita, Moore, Tremmel, Richards, Moras.

Aston Villa: Given, Hutton, Collins, Dunne, Warnock, Herd, Delph, N’Zogbia, Heskey, Agbonlahor, Bent. Subs: Guzan, Clark, Cuellar, Bannan, Albrighton, Jenas, Delfouneso.