So far it looks like we won’t be seeing any drastic changes in the Astoria housing market, hopefully a little increase in demand and some of the excess inventory will be absorbed. It’s premature to speculate just how the inventory will look come late spring or early summer at this point, as the chart shows below the number of homes on the market starts at the lowest point in January and swells gradually until peaking during the summer months before returning to lower levels at the end of the year.

The chart above represents the number of single family listings active during each month of the past year. You will see a similar trend in just about all of the coastal communities in Clatsop County as homes tend to flood the market in late spring and those that don’t sell go off market late in the year. This can be an advantage to a motivated seller because the number of homes in direct competition is reduced significantly during this time. All in all it’s business as usual, with the one positive note that inventory didn’t drastically increase year over year.

While the number of active listings represents supply (inventory) the demand side of the equation would be the number of contracts written and the closed sales.

It’s pretty obvious that the swell in new listings during May and June matches almost exactly with the overall increase of active listings during the same period. In fact the charts match up almost exactly. You can also see that the number of sales is fairly smooth bell curve when you disregard the lows of May and October, showing there are some seasonal influences in demand. This is more typical of the second home markets in Gearhart, Seaside and Cannon Beach but nonetheless it’s one factor in how our market behaves in Astoria.

I took a quick look at the number of currently pending sales in Astoria, which at this moment there are 30 homes pending. Of those 30 pending sales, a quick look showed 11 contracts accepted in January and 9 so far in February (as of 2/16/2012). The others are showing under contracts dates prior to January 1st according to the MLS.

As we are already half way through the 1st quarter I would expect the market will continue to do it’s thing as usual and don’t expect to see any major changes one way or the other for the next 90 days. I’m hopeful that the current interest rates will motivate those buyers that have been waiting on the sidelines for a year or two to jump in and buy now. We could see a little more value decline but I don’t expect to see anything north of another 5% unless we have another financial crisis.

On a side note: Many buyers have been watching the market, doing analysis of their own trying to time the exact bottom. The problem with trying to time the housing market is closed sales are a lagging indicator by the time they are reported. A property that goes under contract today won’t close for 30-60 days in most cases at which time the sale is completed and recorded. However the actual sale as far as the market is concerned takes places when the contract is accepted by all parties and the completion of the sale is the completion of the agreement. So by attempting to time the bottom of the market but analyzing the value trends of closed sales you are actually evaluation data that is at least a month or two out of date.

Geographically it’s much less of a change, my new office is located 587 Pacific Way in Gearhart. Lots of people scratch their heads when I tell them my office is in Gearhart… For me it’s pretty simple, I focus on selling real estate from Gearhart to Astoria. Being located in Gearhart saves me lots of time traveling up and down Hwy 101 in the Summer months and it’s only 10 minutes from downtown Astoria. Plenty of people with an Astoria address live further from downtown than that.

If you’re out and about feel free to stop in and check out my new office.  Here’s a sneak preview

preview of the Gearhart office

I determined my top 5 from the highest sales price only. This of course doesn’t include any sales of commercial properties or other homes not reported in the MLS.

Top 5 Astoria Homes Sales in 2011

5.

230 Round House Road, Mill Pond Village, Astoria

Originally listed at $399,950 and sold for $365,000 on 09/02/2011.

4.

765 30 Street, Astoria

Originally listed at $399,000 and sold for $375,000 on 6/30/2011.

3.

36687 Christians Lane, Olney Area, Astoria

Originally listed at $570,000 and sold for $380,000 on 2/02/2011.

2.

2895 Mill Pond Lane, Mill Pond Village, Astoria

Originally listed at $499,500 and sold for $450,000 on 7/01/2011.

1.

1656 Jerome Avenue, Astoria

Originally listed at $1,225,000 and sold for $797,000 on 4/15/2011.

Some impressive homes for sure, but in my opinion there are few properties in Astoria that come close to the “Henry Hoefler Estate” at 1656 Jerome. This truly spectacular property had good bones to start with and was treated to a top notch renovation.

Another positive sign is the sales in the Mill Pond Village neighborhood. There’s been a handful of homes for sale in Mill Pond off and on for the past 3 years and only a couple have sold. These two sales took place in much less than than the average marketing time which shows demand for homes in the Mill Pond remains strong.

Let’s all hope the coming year brings more of this activity.

source: Clatsop MLS 1/10/2012. information deemed reliable but not guaranteed accurate. 

We didn’t see big changes in 2011 compared with the previous year, mostly more of the same. The overall number of listings in Astoria did decrease a little (a good thing) while the overall number of sales and the respective sold prices also decreased a little (not a good thing).

Many metro areas around the county that were leading indicators of the coming collapse back in 2006 are beginning to show signs of price stabilization and decreased inventory levels- all signs that point to a recovery of some kind. While nobody can accurately predict what a recovery looks like or when one might occur in the Astoria area I do believe we are getting closer. The next 6 months could be rough as a surge of bank owned properties hit the market but once those are cleared out (sold) there’s a good chance the second half of next year will begin to look brighter.

Here’s a big picture look at how last year compared to 2010:

I should also note that the average number of active listings also decreased by 8% in 2011. The main thing I take away from those stats is decreasing inventory levels and a slower rate of decline.

The stats above take in to account every single family detached sale reported in the Clatsop MLS for the 97103 zipcode Jan. 1-Dec 31, including outlying areas like Knappa and Olney.

2010 vs. 2011 Astoria real estate statistics broken down by neighborhood:

No monumental changes at the neighborhood level either with the exception of fewer sales in the outlying areas overall. I did compute changes in median sold price for these areas too. The low number of sales means the output is very easily skewed and the result is misleading so I won’t post it here.

Of the 122 single family detached homes sold in Astoria during 2011 I did dig up a few fun facts:

• Oldest Home: built in 1865
• Newest Home: built in 2010
• Most Expensive: $797,000
• Least Expensive: $10,000
• Largest Home: 5,500 sq-ft
• Smallest Home: 600 sq-ft
• Quickest Sale: 15 days list to close
• Longest Sale: 997 days list to close

Download the complete report

Included in the 2011 Astoria Oregon real estate report:

1. address, list price and sold price for each Astoria home reported in the Clatsop MLS
2. charts showing trends over the past 12 months including asking and sold price
3. changes in the number of listings are sales by month for all of 2011
4. lots of great info for home buyers and current home owners

2011 Astoria real estate blog reader survey

Since 2006 there’s always been a handful of bank owned homes for sale at any given time.

They come in waves it seems…

Well, we’ve just been hit by a tsunami. The number of bank owned homes for sale in Astoria and Clatsop County has doubled in the past year. It skyrocketed over 30% in November alone.

What caused the huge increase last month?

Several large banks have stepped up the foreclosure process big time. Starting almost two years ago, due to some complications with MERS and robo-signing, banks weren’t foreclosing on homes at the normal rate. Instead they would start the process and keep delaying or eventually cancel the trustee’s sale. I’m not a banker but I’m guessing they were trying to avoid legal trouble and court challenges.

Fast forward to this past summer and we saw a very significant increase in default filings at the court house. Filing the Notice of Default (and intent to sell) is a banks first step in the foreclosure process when the borrower stops making payments. The filings are an indicator of foreclosure activity 4-6 months out. When the NOD filings picked up this summer it was cause for concern because banks would be completing the foreclosure process and preparing the homes for re-sale in the middle of winter…

When November rolled around it just happened that several of these homes were  recently foreclosed, and ready to be listed all at the same time. I think we’ll see this trend continue in December and January.

So What?

When almost 10% of the homes for sale are bank owned that creates tough competition for Sassy Seller trying to sell his own home. Despite being less than 10% of the total homes on market nearly 1 in 4 sales in the past 90 days was a bank owned property. That means the bank owned homes are capturing more of the buyers by offering a better value.

Don’t Jump Yet, I See a Bright Spot

There is some good news in all of this. I’m already seeing the new foreclosure filings decline compared to the very high numbers we saw over the summer. This could mean that the number of bank owned properties for sale should start to decline late in the spring.

Think of it this way: There has been dozens of homes across the county (actually across the entire country) in various stages of foreclosure for more than a year. Some of these homes sit vacant, often the outside of the house and yard aren’t taken care of. A few of these in your neighborhood is going to impact your own home’s curb appeal and possibly the value.

It will hurt a little now but getting these homes re-sold and families living in them again will be a big part of the housing recovery.

Looking for more info on bank owned homes?

Get a list of current bank owned homes for sale.

Today I’m making some slight changes and updates to the site, improving loading time and making it easier to get around.

You might see something funky one minute, and gone the next. That’s just me working out the details.

The updated framework is made by the good folks at Studio Press.

This is a common question I get from many first time home buyers, and even from those that haven’t purchased a home in a while. There is no standard answer I can give that is correct for each and every scenario, but let’s look at a few financing options and other costs you’ll have in order to complete a home purchase.

What are closing costs?

Closing costs are just that, your total costs to close or complete the purchase. For our purposes let’s assume you are obtaining financing for all or most of the purchase price. Closing costs include the fees your lender charges to make the loan, appraisal fee, title and escrow charges, prorate of property taxes and the county recording fee. The total amount of these fees will vary based on the property, purchase price, lender and the borrower’s financial strength.

For borrowers obtaining USDA 100% financing a good rule of thumb is 3-3.5% of the purchase price. If you are purchasing a home for $150,000 your closing costs would be approximately $4500, plus the cost of any inspections you order (home or septic inspections are the most common).

For FHA borrowers you will have your down payment added to the total amount which must be at least 3.5% of the sales price.

If you have 20% in savings to put toward the purchase of a home then conventional financing is what you’ll be looking at. Closing costs are slightly less excluding your down payment, as low as 2%.

Using the example of $150,000 sales price:

• USDA financing: $4500 c.c. + inspections + earnest money deposit
• FHA financing: $4500 c.c. + $5250 down payment + inspections
• 80% LTV conventional: $3000 c.c. + $30,000 down payment + inspections

Can I finance all or part of my closing costs? Will the seller pay them?

Depending on the type of loan you are getting you might already be financing a portion of the loan costs. USDA and FHA loans charge a one time funding fee that is added to the final loan amount. Using the above example of a $150,000 purchase price your final loan amount might end up being $153,000. The additional $3000 is the upfront funding or guarantee fee that can be financed however other charges such as the appraisal and loan origination fees must be paid at closing. The $3000 is for example only, the fee could be more or less.

One of the ways a deal can be structured to reduce the total out of pocket expenses is negotiate a credit to cover the closing costs with the seller, as part of the terms of purchase. In general terms you are still paying those costs as the final sales price does include these fees, however the seller is receiving a lesser amount in their pocket and the difference is a credit on the final closing statement. Clear as mud? Here’s a example:

Let’s say you are buying a home for $150,000 and your total closing costs are $4500. As part of the $150,000 purchase price your agent (me!) negotiated a provision that the seller credit you $4500 to cover your closing costs. In the end you are still paying $150,000 and your lender receives $4500 out of the seller’s proceeds at closing.

It’s important to note that while the seller is giving you a credit in this example that the final loan amount really does include the amount of your closing costs. Why? Because the seller nets exactly the same amount by either giving you the credit of reducing the sales price by $4500. Essentially it’s a one way of including your closing costs in the loan amount.

If I get the seller to pay my closing costs, do I need to pay anything else?

Aside from the traditional closing costs you will need about $1500 to complete a home purchase even if you are getting 100% financing from a USDA or VA mortgage. The costs of any inspections and your earnest money deposit must be paid upfront, generally $1500 will cover these costs. This does not include any requirements by your lender that you have reserves in savings to cover 1-3 months of your mortgage payment or property taxes.

Get Pre-Qualified

There’s several reasons it’s important to get pre-qualified by a lender before you get too far into the shopping process. Among them is knowing how much you can afford, and what your total costs to close will be. This will vary slightly based on the property but will give you an idea if you have enough cash to complete a purchase or need to save a little more.

Ready to take the next step? Get in touch and I can refer you to a reputable local mortgage lender.

Check out these other resources for home buyers.

River Point is located 3 miles Southeast of Astoria, Oregon between Hwy 202 and Youngs River. There is approximately 75 homes in the development that was originally a WWII Naval Hospital.

Why Live In River Point

Many residents like the ‘neighborhood’ setting, yet living in the country. The lots in River Point are larger than what’s usually found in the city, many over 7,500 sq-ft and several more over 10,000 sq-ft. There are several areas of dedicated open space (“OS” on the map above) which give a buffer between you and the surrounding homes and provide a great place to play a neighborhood baseball game. Lots on the North side of the development are situated on a bluff, and have terrific river views.

The CC&R’s prohibit boat and RV parking in the driveway for extended periods but the development has a dedicated storage lot (B/RV on the map) which allows convenient storage for use by the residents. There’s also a Olney/Walluski F.D. satellite station adjacent to the storage lot.

[HOA website]

River Point School District

River Point is part of the Astoria School District 1C. Buses are a regular sight picking up and dropping off students that live in the neighborhood.

Homes in River Point

The majority of the homes were built between 2000-2004 and range in size from 1500-3000 sq-ft. At the peak of the market some of the higher end homes with upgraded finishes and river views were selling for more than $500,000, however in the past 2 years homes have sold between $250,000-$350,000. Despite the size of the neighborhood and current market conditions it’s unusual to see more than 3 or 4 homes for sale at any given time.

River Point Homes For Sale

Homes currently listed for sale in River Point: