Bryce Harper

Tom Verducci of SI writes:

When [LeBron] James was 16, he was a high school sophomore with an NBA game and a body to match. Harper has been compared to Justin Upton, Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey Jr., each a freakishly advanced high school player and each the top overall pick of his draft. But Harper, say the baseball men who are paid to make such assessments, has the ability as a sophomore that the aforementioned trio had as seniors.

No pressure on you Bryce, you only have the billing of being the LeBron James of baseball on your plate … and if that’s not enough, try already being compared to some of baseball’s brightest stars at the young age of 16 years old.

So, how does a young kid embrace such a challenge?  By putting himself into baseball’s Hall of Fame already, of course.

“Be in the Hall of Fame, definitely,” says Harper when asked by Verducci about his goals. “Play in Yankee Stadium. Play in the pinstripes. Be considered the greatest baseball player who ever lived. I can’t wait.”

That’s great.  While most kids his age are trying to enjoy a summer or out testing the wheels of their new ride, Harper is preparing to put himself alongside the greatest to play the game in Cooperstown.

At least you can’t blame this up and coming star for not having lofty goals for himself, but it’s how he’s planning on reaching them that may strike a nerve with some people in the baseball circle.

After bursting onto the scene as a sophomore in high school, the 16-year-old Harper is taking his own route to stardom.  This young phenom isn’t going to wait for professional baseball to come to him and will instead make his way to baseball.  Harper has left high school and has registered for classes at the College of Southern Nevada, where he hopes to play baseball next fall and become eligible for the 2010 MLB Draft.

Harper had the idea of obtaining his GED and using it to enter college in hopes of becoming eligible for the draft as a player that has completed high school.  His older brother has transferred from Cal State Northridge to attend school with him at CSN.  The older brother is a left handed pitcher, so look forward to seeing an awful lot of the Harper battery next year before Bryce bolts for the major leagues and awaits his free agency period and the Yankees to come calling.

For anyone that has yet to see the highlight video of Harper floating around, you can watch it here.

To do this, I took the last five seasons (2004-2008) and added them together to give us a greater sample size to work with. I then subtracted their expected win total from their actual win total. The expected win total comes from using the Pythagorean Formula, which presents an expected win percentage based on the amount of runs scored and runs allowed. Teams are sorted based upon their performance above expectations (Wins – ExpWins).

Some interesting numbers that stick out to me is how high the Arizona Diamondbacks and Cincinnati Reds rank on luck factor. With their win percentage in the .460 range, how much worse would they be if their wins they lucked into were actually counted as losses for the team? That’s taking 16 wins away from the Diamondbacks and 13 away from the Reds over a five year period. When doing that, the Diamondbacks drop from a .464 ball club to .444 and the Reds drop from .462 to .446. Keep in mind this is coming from more than 800 games worth of data.

On the flip side, the Atlanta Braves and Cleveland Indians are both above .500 and have performed much less than their expected performance level. The Braves are a .520 that should have 15 additional wins, which would make them a .538 team over the five year period. The Indians would increase from .528 to .549 with the 17 wins they’ve lost out on.

What is the cause of teams performing above or below their expected output?  Is it the manager’s decision making that is costing his team wins or just shear luck?

Out of the Park Baseball 10

Have you ever questioned your favorite baseball team’s decision making? Have you ever wanted to run your own baseball franchise? Well here is your chance to be in charge of one. Introducing Out of the Park Baseball 10, a baseball simulation unlike any other. OOTP10 gives you the opportunity to take over your own baseball team, you have complete control over rosters, payroll, and management. OOTP is every armchair GM’s dream.

The first version of OOTP was released in 1999, lead developer Markus Heinsohn set out to make the most realistic baseball simulation on the market. OOTP mixes great design and gameplay with a fantastic online community which contributes rosters, pictures, quick-starts, and more. The original game is the bare essentials, but with the updates from the OOTP staff and community it comes to life like no other sports game. With their tenth installment the OOTP staff has fine tuned the gameplay and added the most realistic features any advanced baseball fan could want.

OOTP is not just for the diehard baseball fan, casual fans can pick up the game with great ease and jump into the action like any other sports game. While the game’s complex navigation screen can take some getting use to, it is very accessible and user-friendly. OOTP offers so many options and settings even the most advanced user will have to take some time to get acquainted with them. There are several ways to sim through the baseball season in OOTP, you have the option to sim by week, month, or even year or you can go into game mode and manage at bat by at bat. If you prefer to be more hands on I suggest the game by game approach.

OOTP 10 has an array of new features, plus some features that have been tweaked for the better. One major addition to the features includes a new in-depth Arbitration system. Now you have to make the hard decision of offering arbitration to your players just like real life GMs. Along with the new arbitration is the advanced Draft Pick compensation system. If you offer a player arbitration and they decline, the team that signed him will forfeit a draft pick to you. One major difference between OOTP 9 and 10 is the advanced injury system, now just like in real life players can suffer setbacks while on the DL, you come face to face with the same dilemmas real GMs suffer through each year.

The biggest improvement to OOTP 10 has to be the addition of advanced Online Leagues. Now players from all over the world can connect with fellow OOTP players to see who in fact is the best GM. Another major improvement is the enhanced pitching system, now each pitcher has a rating for each pitch. Gone are the days where the pitcher’s performance is mainly based on his three major ratings Stuff, Movement, and Control. Now you have to use your best judgment on a player to decide whether they belong in the rotation or the bullpen.

In conclusion, OOTP 10 is the most in-depth baseball simulation on the market. It does a great job of mixing the coaching and general management aspects of baseball. While the differences between OOTP 9 and 10 aren’t vast, it’s the drastic improvements on the small details that makes this game unlike any other. We recommend this game for any baseball fan diehard or casual. Be sure to ask about joining our Online League as well, starting sometime in June.

Matt Weiters will make his long awaited Major League Debut on Friday, May 29 against the Detroit Tigers. (Photo by Rob Tringali/Getty Images)

The next wave of major league talent is here … finally!  Teams that were holding back their top prospects with eventual Super Two status in mind can rest easy now, or so it seems.

Super Two players come from a pool of players who have accumulated between two and three years of service time and had at least 86 days of service time in the previous year.  After taking that pool, those with the top 17% of service time are rewarded as being Super Two players.  The benefit of being a Super Two player is that you get an extra year of arbitration.  Instead of waiting three years before going to arbitration, you will head to arbitration after your second season and then have four arbitration seasons instead of three.

According to MLBTradeRumors.com, no player in the last three winters was rewarded Super Two status with less than two years, 130 days of service time, however, three players have gone to arbitration with exactly two years, 130 days of service time: Alex Rios, Randy Flores and Antonio Perez between the 2006 and 2007 season.

With the two year, 130 day “deadline” in mind, teams are bound to start bringing their top talents to the major leagues.  Any player that makes his major league debut after May 27, 2009 will have less than two years, 130 days of service time during the off-season following the 2011 season.

Matt Wieters will be the first to make the jump and likely slide just outside the Super Two window.  The Orioles announced on Tuesday that Weiters will make his Major League Debut on Friday against the Tigers.

Which players will follow Wieters to the big leagues?

Tommy Hanson, the top pitching prospect for the Atlanta Braves, will surely be one of them.  Gordon Beckham, top draft pick of the Chicago White Sox last season, seems to be a sure thing, as well.  Other possible stars about to make their first trip to the big leagues include:

• Las Anderson, 1B (Boston Red Sox)
• Alcides Escobar, 2B/SS (Milwaukee Brewers)
• Neftali Feliz, RHP (Texas Rangers)
• Brian Matusz, LHP (Baltimore Orioles)
• Chris Tillman, RHP (Baltimore Orioles)
• Brett Wallace, 3B (St. Louis Cardinals)

Any others come to mind?

LOS ANGELES, CA - APRIL 16: Manny Ramirez #99 of the Los Angeles Dodgers reacts on base after receiving an intentional walk against the San Francisco Giants during the second inning at Dodger Stadium on April 16, 2009 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

The Mid-Summer classic a.k.a. The All-Star game is a Major League Baseball staple. Ever since 1933 (excluding 1945) the all-star game has brought the best players in baseball together for an exhibition for the fans enjoyment. With the implementation of Interleague play a lot of the game’s luster has worn off. This begs the question should their be changes to the All-Star game?

In recent years the A.S.G. has went from exhibition, to spectacle, to embarrassment. The recently added stipulation of home field advantage and the 7-7 debacle in 2002 being clear examples. The MLB can’t continue to let the fans pick the starting lineup if the outcome has this added importance. The powers that be need to choose, either it’s an exhibition or a very meaningful game. With the fans vote continuing to be a popularity contest, the best players don’t get their deserved start.

Some suggestions for the A.S.G. could be to move it to the end of the season like the NFL Pro Bowl and just decide home-field advantage on regular season record. Unfortunately with this idea a lot of the best players would be too tired to participate, thus turning the game irrelevant. What I personally suggest is do away with fan voting. Obviously this would be taken with mixed reactions, but look at all of the incidents in 2009 of fans forming together to sort of protest the voting by trying to vote in Lastings Milledge and Manny Ramirez.

Maybe this method is over the top, but it’s the only way I see the A.S.G. regaining some of it’s former glories. What are some changes that you would like to see?

Pitcher Tommy Hanson #73 of the Atlanta Braves throws during an exhibition game against Panama at Champion Stadium March 3, 2009 in Kissimmee, Florida. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)

When evaluating a minor league pitcher, some of the things most important to look at are his ability to keep the ball out of play (strikeouts) and keeps runners off base (hit and walk rates). One of the ways to do this is by taking the amount of strikeouts a pitcher has, then subtract the amount of hits and walks the pitcher gives up. Essentially, you’re looking for the number to be that of a positive number, indicating that he’s getting more strikeouts than he is giving up base runners.

Below I have compiled the numbers for minor league pitchers using this formula to determine which starters have been the most dominant. To appear on the list below, a pitcher must have pitched 0.8 innings per team game.

AAA

AA

A+

A

It’s not surprising that pitchers in A ball are enjoying more missed bats than pitchers at higher levels, considering the hitters they are facing are mostly still raw projects. There are 21 pitchers in Class-A ball with a MBN equal to or greater than 0. That number drops to 8 pitchers for Advanced-A and only 3 pitchers in Double-A.

The gradual decrease in missed bats numbers make the numbers that Tommy Hanson, Kris Medlen, David Hernandez and Clay Buchholz are enjoying at Triple-A that much more impressive. Medlen has already made the jump to the major leagues, while the others probably aren’t far behind.

Below are the minor league pitchers with a MBN equal to or greater than 0.

 Jake Peavy

Why it makes sense: He’s one of the best pitchers in all of baseball and would demand an absolute haul. By trading Peavy alone, Kevin Towers could successfully restock his farm system and set his team up for years to come.

Why it doesn’t: Jake Peavy has become the poster child for not giving out no-trade clauses. His reluctancy to waive his no-trade clause is rumored to have been the reason he didn’t end up with the Braves this offseason. He also rejected a trade to the White Sox recently, citing that he was “happy in San Diego”. Finding a team that Peavy will accept a trade to that has the prospects to get the deal done will inevitably prove to be a thorn in Kevin Tower’s side.

Potential suitors: Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals

Heath Bell

Why it makes sense: He’s a lock-down closer, which is a proven commodity at the trade deadline. He was Trevor Hoffman’s set-up man before that, so he’s willing to take a lesser role in the bullpen. Teams are always looking to add arms around July 31st.

Why it doesn’t: There’s no clear-cut replacement for Bell in San Diego. Of course, since the Padres won’t win many games it doesn’t matter who’s got the title of closer anyways.

Potential suitors: New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays

Atlanta Braves pitcher Jair Jurrjens throws during a baseball game with the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park in Washington, Wednesday, April 22, 2009.(AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Jair Jurrjens is one of those pitchers that has been very underappreciated around the league over the last couple of seasons. He doesn’t do anything spectacular, other than get the job done. He doesn’t strike out a lot of people, he wasn’t regarded as a top prospect as he came up through the minor leagues, and in turn, he doesn’t get the amount of fan fare that he should.

Jurrjens is a young pitcher that pitches to contact but has the stuff to turn into a strikeout pitcher, when needed. When the Braves acquired him from the Tigers for Edgar Renteria, it was thought that Gorkys Hernandez was the major talent coming to the Braves in the trade. Instead, the trade has turned out to be the best they have made probably since acquiring Fred McGriff in 1993 — though Tim Hudson could probably put up a good argument.

He came to the Braves in 2008 with the idea in mind that he would start at Triple-A and provide the Braves with some depth to their starting rotation, but after his performance in Spring Training, he opened the year in the Braves rotation. As the year went along, he continued to impress and eventually took over as the ace of the Braves staff after it had been depleted by injury. As a rookie, Jurrjens went 13-10 with a 3.68 ERA over 188.1 innings.

In 2009, he’s picked up where he left off in 2008, starting the year 4-2 with a 2.07 ERA in 10 starts. He hasn’t given up more than three earned runs in any start this season and hasn’t given up more than two runs in a start since his second start of the season on April 12. Since April 17, including his start today, Jurrjens has made eight starts and recorded a quality start in seven of them. The lone start he failed to record a quality start was a game in which he was removed after the second inning due to a lengthy rain delay.

Jurrjens is leading the charge for the Braves pitching staff this season, which came into the day fourth in the major leagues with a 3.81 ERA from their starters. He is doing all this at a fraction of the cost of other staff aces, getting paid $450,000 in 2009 and still another season away from reaching his arbitration years. He made major league minimum last season, while FanGraphs had him pegged as being worth $17.2 million to the Braves. So far this season, FanGraphs has him pegged with a $4.8 million in terms of value with three-quarters of the season left to play. I think it’s safe to say that there are not many pitchers with a perceived value that much higher than the amount they’re getting paid.

After finishing third in Rookie of the Year voting in 2008, Jurrjens is making a case to have a similar finish in Cy Young voting in 2009.  At just 23 years old, Jurrjens has the ability, and time on his side, to be mentioned alongside some of the great pitchers of this generation.

Adrian Gonzalez

Why it makes sense: A-Gon is the second highest paid position player on the Padres. He’s very quietly in the middle of an absolute monster season and is locked up for next year with a club option for 2011. Gonzalez would demand a package that would surpass the size and talent of the 2007 Mark Teixeira trade.

Why it doesn’t: Gonzalez is one of the few things drawing fans to the ballpark right now. He’s locked up fairly cheaply, and has long been the Padres most potent hitter. Trading him not only shows the Padres are giving up on this season, but probably the next two as well.

Possible suitors: Los Angeles Angels, Chicago Cubs

Scott Hairston

Why it makes sense: He’s incredibly hot right now, hitting .327/.393/.564 – .957 He’s not expected to keep that pace up and could fetch a prospect or two from a team that has outfield troubles.

Why it doesn’t: Along with A-Gon, he’s carrying the Padres right now. If he really has turned a corner, then he’s a cheap productive bat that the Padres could use.

Potential suitors: Atlanta Braves, Cincinati Reds

Luis Rodriguez

Why it makes sense: He’s a shortstop, and many teams will pay well for even a mediocre shortstop. He’s hitting fairly well this year and has a .334 wOBA and can play all the infield positions. He could make a decent stop-gap or a pretty good utility guy.

Why it doesn’t: He’s another cheap guy for the low-budget Padres. And to be completely honest, I’m not sure exactly how much he would command in a trade, but it wouldn’t a whole lot.

Potential suitors: Minnestoa Twins, Chicago White Sox

Andruw Jones was once known as the greatest center fielder of his generation, while his gold glove defense never diminished, his bat started to fail him miserably in the 2nd half of the 2007 season. After leaving Atlanta he joined the Los Angeles Dodgers among much fan fare. The love fest didn’t last long as he only played in 75 games putting up an anemic .505 OPS while hitting a measly 3 homeruns in 209 at bats. During the 2008 off-season Jones, left with a career in shambles, sought the help of Rudy Jaramillo for help with his swing. After signing a minor league contract with the Rangers and eventually making the 25 man roster, Jones has gotten off to a hot start in 2009. In 65 at bats Andruw has put up a 1.032 OPS while swatting 4 homeruns. While it may be too early to proclaim that his career is back on track, it’s hard to argue with results.

Jaramillo’s other two known pupils have not enjoyed the same success. While Craig Monroe hasn’t reverted back to his 2008 form he hasn’t exactly set the world on fire in limited playing time in Pittsburgh. Jeff Francoeur showed early signs of Jaramillo’s help in 2009 spraying the ball to all fields and showing consistent plate discipline. While the power wasn’t there many thought it was just a matter of time before he started to drive the ball with authority. Instead Francoeur has reverted back to 2008 form and even plummeting past his dreadful numbers of the forgettable season. Here are some 2008/2009 splits :

Craig Monroe – 2008: .202/.274/.405
2009: .240/.283/.460

Jeff Francoeur – 2008: .239/.294/.359
2009: .252/.277/.361

Has Jaramillo really changed anything? Some may say no, but the fact is Andruw Jones was the laughing stock of baseball in 2008 and now he’s enjoying the same success that made him a 5 time all-star.