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Small Businesses Benefit Big From Health Care Reform

2009-08-12T12:36:00.001-07:00

By Senator Mark DeSaulnier

Health care reform is a matter of national economic urgency for small businesses.

To say that the current health care system puts small businesses at a disadvantage is a huge understatement. Small businesses pay up to 18 percent more per worker than large firms for the same health insurance policy. That means higher operational costs, lower wages, fewer profits, and, ultimately, less coverage. More than half of the Americans who are uninsured, 27 million, own or are employed by a small company.

According to surveys, three-quarters of Californian small businesses rate the availability of affordable health care among their top business challenges. With the vocal minority attempting to hijack health care reform, the views of small business owners are being drowned out at a time when we can least afford it – literally.

As a former small business owner, the benefits of health care reform are crystal clear. Small businesses need: reliable, predictable health care costs that are on par with big corporations and foreign competitors.

As the owner of TR’s Bar & Grill in downtown Concord for 30 years, I was presented with a familiar lose-lose situation. Small business owners sink more and more money into rising healthcare costs and lose profits critical to further investment and growth, or deny health care to employees, making them vulnerable to medical and financial disaster.

No one should be forced to choose between a sinking business and sick workers. We must fight Big Tobacco, Big Pharmaceuticals, and Big Insurance special interests to ensure small business owners never have to make that absurd choice again.

More and more small business owners are beginning to understand that they will be among the greatest beneficiaries of health care reform that includes a robust public option. And they rightly should be. Firms with fewer than 20 employees accounted for around a quarter of all employment growth from 1992 to 2005.

A combination of tax credits, employee subsidies, exemptions for smaller businesses, and access to a competitive health insurance market that includes a public option – all in the current bill before Congress – will succeed in providing more dependable and cost-effective options to owners and their workforce.

I know, first hand, that if the proposed new health care system existed when I was running TR’s, the restaurant would have been more profitable, employees would have taken home more pay, and we would have had the luxury of choosing between a range of higher quality plans.

I strongly recommend that you take the opportunity to read the White House report on the ‘Economic Effects of Health Care Reform on Small Businesses and their Employees’. A strong public option ensures competition will drive down inflated premiums and make health care affordable again.

Now is the time to push back on special interests and ensure that health care reform includes a robust public option. It’s what small business owners—our greatest economic drivers—want and need.

Businesses Burnt, California Burns

2009-07-13T14:03:00.001-07:00

Over at Calitics, RLMiller picked up this quote from an economics blogs

I work in the aircraft repair/parts industry in California and thought I'd let you onto something. Many vendors to the CDF (California division of forestry) air operations have outstanding bills going back to last year. My company just put all California agencies on cash or credit card only. Many others are refusing to sell to the CDF because of huge amount of unpaid and late bills. We don't even get Registered Warrants!

Mish, this is scary. I know of one company that is doing repairs knowing they won't get paid just because they do not want to see fire fighting aircraft grounded

Scary stuff indeed.

Fire season is here and there have already been a number of fires, in fact CNN just reported there is one burning right now east of LA.

Read RLMiller's whole rundown over at Calitics.

Elections Have Consequences

2009-07-13T13:44:00.001-07:00

In CD-10, some supporters of DeSaulnier & Buchanan have taken grief for backing a candidate, that if they won, would lead to yet another special election for their Senate or Assembly seats.

As my friend Craig Cheslog reminds us

a vacancy in the Lt. Governor's office also can have serious consequences on state issues.

Garamendi win might harm the environment : Opinion : Ventura County Star

For if Garamendi goes to Congress, he must immediately resign his current office. This would give Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger a rare opportunity to appoint someone of his choosing to a statewide office that has sometimes been a dead end and other times served as a convenient step on the ladder leading to the office Schwarzenegger now holds.

More importantly, perhaps, if Garamendi leaves his present office, the balance of power would change instantly on an obscure but sometimes powerful commission he now chairs because he is lieutenant governor.

That would be the State Lands Commission

Whitman Bets $15 Million

2009-07-13T13:15:00.000-07:00

Is Meg Whitman trying to buy the pot?

With a $15 million deposit it would certainly appear that way.

In clash of two wealthy Silicon Valley titans, Meg Whitman has just upped the ante - by $15 million - in what is expected to be a free-spending race for the Republican gubernatorial nomination.

Whitman's donation to her campaign, announced today, brings her persional contributions today to $19 million. She has also raised $6.7 in other donations by the June 30 filing deadline, Team Whitman announced...

Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, who has to date has pumped $4.2 million of his own money into his campaign, has also raised another $1.2 million.

Poizner's move and that's a pretty high raise to call. Let's see if he's a gambling man.

Trading IOU's

2009-07-06T13:50:00.000-07:00

Posting ads to craigslist, collectors have already started seeking out California's IOU warrants. Now Wall Street wants in on the action.

FT.com

Wall Street, quick to spot an opportunity, is also gearing up to trade the payment promises.

“We have a whole team working on it,” said Barry Silbert, chief executive of SecondMarket, a company that trades illiquid assets such as bankruptcy claims, private company stock and toxic assets.

Mr Silbert said hedge funds, municipal bond investors and other institutions were interested. Trading volume will depend on how many IOUs the state issues and how long banks accept IOUs for deposit at face value.

Depending on how long this budget mess lasts, we could see a whole market of buying & selling IOU's pop up.

Nice to see that so many people are making money off of our states misery.

CA-10: The Date is Set

2009-07-06T11:50:00.001-07:00

From cbs5.com

Schwarzenegger had 14 days after Tauscher's confirmation to set a date for the special election, which will fill the seat of the representative of California's 10th Congressional District for the rest of a two-year term that will end in 2011.

The election must be held between 112 and 126 days after the governor's proclamation, according to Contra Costa County Assistant County Registrar Candy Lopez.

So, on Friday, Gov. Schwarzeneggar announced the date of the special election to replace Ellen Tauscher in California's 10th congressional district by issuing the following proclamation

SPECIAL ELECTION PROCLAMATION
BY THE GOVERNOR OF THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA

I, ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER, Governor of the State of California, do hereby proclaim and order that a special election shall be held on the 3rd day of November, 2009 within the 10th Congressional District of the State to fill the vacancy in the office of Member of Congress from said district resulting from the resignation of Ellen O. Tauscher.

IN WITNESS WHEREOF I have hereunto set my hand and caused the Great Seal of the State of California to be affixed this 3rd day of July, 2009.

Arnold Schwarzenegger
Governor of California

The primary will be held on September 1st and if no candidate receives 50%+1 of the vote...which isn't going to happen...then the top vote getters from each party will move on to the special election to be held November 3rd.

Medical Marijuana Patients Can Sue

2009-07-02T10:00:00.000-07:00

Medical marijuana patients and growers can sue police for illegally raiding their property and destroying their plants, a state appeals court ruled Wednesday.

The 2-1 decision by the Third District Court of Appeal in Sacramento was the first in the state to allow a patient or grower to sue claiming that their rights to cultivate and use medical marijuana have been violated. Those rights are protected by state law but banned by federal law.

Officials in Butte County, where the case arose, argued that patients and suppliers can invoke the medical marijuana law only as a defense to criminal charges, not to sue for damages...

But the court's majority said a marijuana patient or member of a collective has the same right as anyone else to sue officers who violate the constitutional ban on illegal searches and seizures.

The county will likely appeal to the state Supreme Court, but for now, this is great news for patients rights.

Gubernatorial Campaign Cash

2009-07-02T09:00:00.000-07:00

The state may be going broke, but the 2010 gubernatorial campaigns certainly aren't

Brown, a Democrat and former California governor, has collected $7.3 million through Tuesday, the end of the current reporting period.

Whitman, a Republican, said her campaign brought in $6.5 million, on top of $4 million she contributed from her personal fortune.

Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, a Republican, said he has raised more than $1.2 million to date, but his campaign did not release a figure for the six-month span. Poizner, a former Silicon Valley entrepreneur, also has given his campaign at least $4.2 million from his own fortune.

San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, raised $1.6 million in the six-month period that ended Tuesday. Of that, more than $1 million is from online contributions through social-networking sites such as Facebook and Twitter.

A fundraising total for former congressman and Republican candidate Tom Campbell will not be released until July, but the campaign estimates it has raised just under $500,000 and has $300,000 on hand, spokesman James Fisfis said.

On the Democratic side, it sounds like Brown's got the bucks and Newsom's got the netroots. We'll see which translates into more votes.

For the Republicans, it appears to be a battle of the millionaires with Whitman & Poizner each throwing in more than 4 million of their own money.

IOU FAQ

2009-07-02T08:00:00.000-07:00

Nice resource from the Contra Costa Times

Q: What's a registered warrant?

A: It's an interest-bearing promise to pay an IOU issued by the state when there's not enough cash in the state's bank accounts to pay all of its General Fund spending obligations.

Q: When and how can I redeem it and get my money?

A: On or after Oct. 1, either by cashing it in at your bank or by bringing or mailing it to the State Treasurer's Office, 915 Capitol Mall, Sacramento, Calif., 95814.

Q: What does it look like?

A: It'll look like a state check but it'll have the word "REGISTERED" printed on the face, along with the issue and the maturity date, and it'll have a special endorsement stamp on the reverse.

Q: Will my bank take it sooner than Oct. 1?

A: You'll have to contact your bank to find out. Bank of America announced Wednesday it would cash IOUs through July 10. Some banks may not, however.

Q: What if it won't?

A: If you can't wait for your money until Oct. 1, you might choose to open an account at another bank that will take the IOU sooner.

Q: What about SSI/SSP, unemployment insurance or retirement benefit checks?

A: Business as usual, at least for now. The U.S. Social Security Administration will keep paying full SSI/SSP checks to recipients in July and August. Unemployment is paid out of a special account, not the General Fund, and retirement benefits will continue in regular checks.

Q: Where can I learn more?

A: The state controller's toll-free assistance line is 866-267-4255, and the state treasurer's is 888-864-2762.

Arnoldbucks Return

2009-07-02T07:00:00.000-07:00

Not worth the paper they are printed on...

Arnoldbucks are back!

From the Courage Campaign

If you are owed any money by the state of California (unless, of course, you are a bondholder) you're going to get an IOU. That includes folks still expecting a tax refund, anyone who still needs state financial aid for school, and the hundreds, perhaps thousands of businesses that do business with the state.

Maybe you'll have better luck than this guy...

Jerry Brown in Jackson's Will

2009-07-01T16:16:00.001-07:00

Kids...Check

Ex-Wife...Check

Dianna Ross...ok, I can see that...Check

Jerry Brown...seriously?

How odd.

Furlough Friday 3x and IOU's

2009-07-01T16:00:00.000-07:00

Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has signed an executive order mandating state employees to an additional Furlough Friday, bringing the new total to three unpaid days off.

The executive order signed by Schwarzenegger will reinstate "Furlough Fridays," requiring more than 200,000 state workers to take unpaid leaves on the first three Fridays of each month.

The move amounts to an additional 4.62 percent pay cut for state workers, bringing their total reduction in 2009 to about 14 percent because of two furlough days imposed previously.

With a $26 billion dollar shortfall, I don't see how that really solves our problems, but as if state workers getting the shaft once again isn't enough...

State Controller John Chiang has said he will begin issuing IOUs Thursday to vendors who do business with the state, local government, and people who are owed tax refunds.

So not only are the state employees getting screwed...Due to Arnold's absolute inability to lead, anybody that does business with the state is S.O.L. as well.

Good times.

Villaraigosa Out

2009-06-22T13:18:00.000-07:00

Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa was just interviewed by Wolf Blitzer on CNN, and has announced that he will not be running for Governor of the State of California.

Meet In The Middle 4 Equality

2009-05-28T11:04:00.001-07:00

Sat May 30, 1:00pm - Fresno, CA - City Hall

Meet in the Middle 4 Equality

United for Equality
Join us in Fresno, the middle of California, as we galvanize our forces with a day of unity of all peoples - gay and straight alike. Our peaceful events, including our Equality March and our Equality Rally, share the theme of "United for Equality". Join with us and then take our vision back to your own communities where we can work together to change our world to include federal level equality, access & justice for all.
Learn More>>

Sat May 30, 1:00pm - Fresno, CA - City Hall

"Fidelity" : Repeal Prop 8

2009-05-28T10:44:00.000-07:00

The California Supreme Court's decision to uphold Proposition 8 is extremely disappointing, but we don't have time to mourn their failure to restore marriage equality to California.

It's time to go on offense. To be fearless in our fight for equality.
Starting right now.

In response, the Courage Campaign will hit the California airwaves with a 60-second TV ad version of "Fidelity" -- the heartbreaking online video viewed by more than 1.2 million people, making it the most-watched video ever in the history of California politics.

We are launching this provocative new TV ad in the spirit of Harvey Milk's call to "come out, come out wherever you are" and proudly tell the stories of the people most affected by the passage of Prop 8 -- in moving images set to the beat of Regina Spektor's beautiful song.

Watch the new "Fidelity" TV ad now and -- if you want more people to see it -- make a contribution to put it on the air in Bakersfield, Fresno, Los Angeles, San Diego, Sacramento and San Francisco.

No on 1A 1B 1C 1D 1E 1F

2009-05-18T09:48:00.000-07:00

Tomorrow is the May 19 Special Election. Don't forget to vote!

Keep the Bear Blue

2009-05-14T12:08:00.000-07:00

A friend of mine sent this too me and I just thought it was too cool to not post something.

I guess it's a tote bag that Dan picked up from Mainstreet Moms. Promoting BearFlagBlue even before there was a BearFlagBlue...dig it. :)

If you're into East Bay Politics...and particularly if you live in Alameda...go check out Dan's blog, A Progressive Alamedan

Vote Yes on Measure D May 19th

2009-05-13T01:17:00.000-07:00

The May 19th ballot is full of confusing, divisive, monotonous propositions (all of which happen to be critical for our state). However there is one item on your ballot that is easy to understand, Measure D.

Measure D is a local school parcel tax of $99. It would last five years. It will generate $7.5 million in revenue for the school district. This is revenue that the Mt. Diablo Unified School District (MDUSD) desperately needs. The district has had to cut $30 million over the past two years. As a former student of the district (CHS Class of 07) and an older sister of a current student (CHS Class of 11), I have personally seen what these cuts have done to our schools. Concord High has had to pink slip 50% of its teachers. Over 500 pink slips have gone out to teachers, staff and other employees of MDUSD.

MDUSD has also been forced to cut all elementary school, most middle school and some high school Vice Principals (one from CHS); funding for all high school sports , all fourth grade band, and 9 of 16 middle school and high school librarians. This is a list of just some of the important programs cut from our schools.

We need Measure D to pass if we want any hope of bringing back these programs. Voting Yes on Measure D is a way for MDUSD voters to say that education is important to them! All of Measure D’s money will watched by a citizen oversight board and the wording of the measure prevents any of the money from going to district administrators. Measure D isn’t about adding superfluous programs to the district…it’s about providing a basic education to the children of the Mt. Diablo Unified School District.

I hope you will all join me May 19th on voting Yes on Measure D!

For more information, please visit http://www.protectourlocalschools.org/

Local Events in the East Bay

2009-05-12T12:31:00.000-07:00

From Political notes - ContraCostaTimes.com

Rossmoor

POLITICAL EXPERT TO SPEAK: Tony Quinn, co-author of the California Target Book, will be the guest speaker today at the meeting of the Rossmoor Community Club.

He will speak on the statewide ballot measures that will appear on the May 19 special election.

The free community meeting begins at 3 p.m. in the Fireside Room, 1001 Golden Rain St., Rossmoor.

For more details, contact Community Club President Tom Mader at ditoma@comcast.net.

Alamo

NATIONAL SECURITY IS TOPIC: Claremont Institute's American Studies Fellow Larry Greenfield will speak at the Wednesday dinner meeting of the Blackhawk Republican Women.

Greenfield's speech is titled, "Liberty, Prosperity and National Security: How Conservative Principles will Recapture the American Spirit."

Registration begins at 5:30 p.m., followed by the program at 6:15. It will be held at the Blackhawk Country Club, 599 Blackhawk Club Drive in Alamo. The cost is $25 per person, and no denim is allowed. For reservations or more details, e-mail rlyons1009@sbcglobal.net or call 925-820-6542.

Orinda

NEW ASSEMBLYWOMAN TO SPEAK: Elected in November, Assemblywoman Nancy Skinner, D-Berkeley, will speak Friday at the meeting of the Lamorinda Democratic Club about her legislative experiences.

Skinner will also speak about the ballot measures on the May 19 statewide special election.

She is the chairwoman of the Assembly Natural Resources Committee and serves on the Assembly Utilities and Commerce, Public Safety, Local Government and Appropriations committees.

The club meeting begins at 7:30 p.m., followed by the speaker at 8. It will be held at the Orinda Community Church, 10 Irwin Way. The cost is $5 per person. Students are free. For more details, call 925-210-7337 or visit lamorindademoclub.org.

Dublin

CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATES INVITED: Prospective candidates to fill an expected vacancy in 10th Congressional District have been invited to speak at the May 18 evening meeting of the Tri-Valley Democratic Club.

Rep. Ellen Tauscher, D-Alamo, has been nominated to a White House post and awaits U.S. Senate confirmation. Lt. Gov. John Garamendi is expected to attend, and the club has also invited others who have declared interest in the seat including state Sen. Mark DeSaulnier, D-Concord, Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan, D-Alamo, Dublin investigator Adriel Hampton and others.

The free meeting begins at 7 p.m. at the IBEW Hall, 6250 Village Parkway, Dublin. For more details, contact Tri-Valley Democratic Club President Ellis Goldberg at 925-831-8355 or www.trivalleydems.com.

Walnut Creek

BLOGGER TO HEADLINE EVENT: Liberal blog Calitics founder Brian Leubitz will address the May 20 meeting of the Diablo Valley Democratic Club.

Leubitz will talk about the results of the May 19 special election and the expected special election to replace Rep. Ellen Tauscher, D-Alamo, if she is confirmed as an undersecretary in the U.S. State Department.

Leubitz, an Internet and campaign consultant, is also on the board of the San Francisco Young Democrats and the Alice B. Toklas LGBT Democratic Club.

The meeting begins at 7 p.m. at the Ygnacio Valley Library, 2661 Oak Grove Road in Walnut Creek.

For more details, call 925-946-0469 or www.dvdems.org.

Lafayette

TAUSCHER TO SPEAK ON ARMS RACE: Rep. Ellen Tauscher, D-Alamo, who has been nominated as Undersecretary for Arms Control and International Security, will be the featured speaker at the May 28 meeting of the Commonwealth Club.

Joining Tauscher as moderator will be Harold Smith, a professor at the Goldman School of Public Policy at UC-Berkeley and the former assistant to the Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical and Biological Defense Program.

First elected to the 10th Congressional District in 1996, Tauscher awaits an expected U.S. Senate confirmation to the State Department post.

Tauscher will discuss the U.S. role in nuclear nonproliferation policy at a time when countries such as North Korea and Iran are pursuing nuclear capability.

Registration begins at 5:45 p.m. followed by the program at 6:30 p.m. at the Veterans Memorial Hall, 3780 Mt. Diablo Blvd., in Lafayette.

The cost is $12 for Commonwealth Club members and $18 for nonmembers.

Purchase advance tickets at 415-597-6705 or www.commonwealthclub.org.

Walnut Creek

GOP ENVIRONMENTALIST TO SPEAK: Go Green founder Jill Buck will speak at the May 21 meeting of the Conservative Connection, the Lamorinda Republican Women's evening satellite club.

Buck's Pleasanton-based consulting firm helps firms adopt "green" policies and has led a successful initiative to integrate political conservative ideals with environmental conservation.

The meeting begins at 6:30 p.m. at the Buttercup Grill and Bar, 660 Ygnacio Valley Road in Walnut Creek. The cost is $16. For more details or reservations, contact Kris Hunt at ksh13@comcast.net or 925-451-7794.

CA-10: Garamendi Poll Riddled With Errors

2009-05-06T14:05:00.000-07:00

X-posted at The Progressive Connection

The more I find out about the CA-10 poll John Garamendi released on Monday, the worse it smells. The press release about this poll from the Garamendi campaign gave out limited information as to how the poll was conducted, which raised a number of questions. However, Peter Charles left a comment at Calitics where he shared more information about the details about the poll. Those details exposed three glaring errors that jumped out from the information that was provided to the poll's participants.

When the participants were given bios of the three Democratic candidates, here’s what they heard about Mark DeSaulnier, Joan Buchanan, and John Garamendi:

3a. Democrat State Senator Mark Desaulnier has served in the state legislature since 2004. Before that he served on the Contra Costa Board of Supervisors from 1996 to 2004. His top priority issues will be rebuilding the country's economy, implementing clean energy programs, and regulating Wall Street banks. He is endorsed by Congress members Ellen Tauscher and George Miller, local firefighters, teachers, police and environmental groups.

3b. Democrat State Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan was elected to the State Assembly last November. Before that she served for 10 years on the San Ramon (ruh-MOAN) Valley school board. Her top priority issues will be more jobs and improving the economy, increasing renewable energy programs, and reforming public education. She will likely be endorsed by local elected leaders, school board members, teachers, and civil rights and womens groups.

3c. Democrat John Garamendi is California's Lieutenant Governor. He has lived in the Sacramento portion of Congressional District 10 for 30 years. He previously served as Deputy Secretary of the Interior for Bill Clinton. He is running for Congress to continue reforming health care, rebuild our economy around clean energy, and reform bank and credit card laws. He will be endorsed by local nurses, firefighters, teachers, police officers as well as former President Bill Clinton and Al Gore.

The problem here is that the pollster misrepresented all three candidates, and he did it in a way that predictably favored the candidate who hired him.

As we've noted extensively at The Progressive Connection, John Garamendi does not now, nor has he ever "lived in the Sacramento portion of Congressional District 10." That's just an outright falsehood, as are the representations made about both DeSaulnier's and Buchanan's record of public service.

Mark DeSaulnier joined the state legislature in 2006, not 2004. Before that, DeSaulnier served on the Contra Costa Board of Supervisors from 1993 to 2006. Thirteen years, not eight. Four terms, not two.

And Joan Buchanan served on the San Ramon Valley school board from 1990 to 2008. Eighteen years, not ten. Five terms, not three.

You have to ask yourself this question. If a pollster will lie about both his own candidate's and the opposing candidates’ biographies, what else will he lie about?

And those aren’t the only problems. Garamendi’s polling sample is all wrong, to boot.

This is how the Garamendi press release described the polling sample:

The poll was conducted between May 1st and May 4th by Jim Moore and JMM Research. Interviews were conducted with a 400-person sample from the 10th congressional district. Turnout was projected at 30 percent, and likely turnout was projected to be 55 percent Democratic, 33 percent Republican, and 12 percent independent. The poll had a +/- 5 percent margin of error.

For starters, a +/-5 percent margin of error is large. For those of you who are new to polling, +/-5 means that you need to give a five percent leeway to each candidate in the race. Relative to this particular poll, that means that Garamendi’s numbers could be as much as 5 points higher or lower, AND DeSaulnier’s and Buchanan’s numbers could also be as much as 5 points higher or lower. So while, at one extreme, it could reflect a blowout with Garamendi at 29 and DeSaulnier/Buchanan at 8/6, the converse could also be true. You could also have Garamendi at 19 and DeSaulnier/Buchanan at 18/16 –- or a dead heat.

But there are also real and significant flaws in the poll's underlying assumptions.

To explain this part, I’ve gathered the following data from the March 2009 SoS registration statistics, along with the CA-10 primary results from June 2008, and the Proposition results from CA-10 in the June 2008 primary.

Voter Data for CA-10
Total Voters % Total Dems % Total Reps % Total DTS % Other %
March 2009 Registration for CA-10 367,306 100% 173,498 47.24% 106,275 28.93% 73,015 19.88% 14,518 3.96%
June 2008 CA-10 Primary Results w/win % 85,814 N/A 55,427 64.59% 30,324 35.34% N/A N/A 63 .03%
CA-10 Voter Turnout as a % of Registration 85,814 23.36% 55,427 31.95% 30,324 28.53% N/A N/A 63 .43%

	Total Voters	%	Total Dems	%	Total Reps	%	Total DTS	%	Other	%
March 2009 Registration for CA-10	367,306	100%	173,498	47.24%	106,275	28.93%	73,015	19.88%	14,518	3.96%
June 2008 CA-10 Primary Results w/win %	85,814	N/A	55,427	64.59%	30,324	35.34%	N/A	N/A	63	.03%
CA-10 Voter Turnout as a % of Registration	85,814	23.36%	55,427	31.95%	30,324	28.53%	N/A	N/A	63	.43%

Got that? 23.36% voter turnout in last June's Congressional primary.

But what’s fascinating about this is that Democratic and Republican registration amounts to 76.17 of the total voters; DTS and the others account for the remaining 23.84%. Now, if you were registered either Democratic or Republican for the June primary, you automatically received a partisan ballot. If you were DTS, you would have received a partisan ballot only if you specifically requested it; otherwise, you would have received a ballot that did not allow you to vote in, specifically (for our purposes), the Congressional race. Of the remaining parties, only Peace & Freedom fielded a candidate, so the members of the other parties would also not have had a Congressional vote.

Now, there were two propositions on the ballot as well, where all voters could cast their vote, regardless of party affiliation. It’s interesting to note that the total number of votes cast on Props 98 and 99 (regarding eminent domain) in CA-10 was significantly higher than the number of votes cast in the CA-10 Congressional race.

Total Voters % Turnout
CA-10 Congressional Race 85,814 23.36%
Prop 98 113,139 30.8%
Prop 99 112,584 30.65%

	Total Voters	% Turnout
CA-10 Congressional Race	85,814	23.36%
Prop 98	113,139	30.8%
Prop 99	112,584	30.65%

So we can assume that at least 113,139 voters turned out in CA-10 in the June primary. But of those 113,139, only 85,814 cast a ballot in the partisan Congressional race -- or 75.84% -- almost exactly equivalent to the 76.16% who are registered with the two major parties. That would tend to prove the notion that DTS voters seldom pull Democratic or Republican ballots in primaries.

All of which is a really long-winded explanation for why I don’t see any way to justify setting up a poll to reflect a 12% DTS participation in the coming CA-10 special primary. That pretty much leaves us with a deeply flawed +/-5 MoE poll that, in all likelihood, overestimates turnout and takes 12% of its data from people who are demonstrably unlikely to vote in the upcoming special election (remember, the margin of Garamendi’s lead is 11%), while undersampling Democrats by 10%.

Obviously, the Garamendi campaign was hoping to make a big splash with this poll and establish its candidate as the strong frontrunner. Instead, because the poll is so thoroughly riddled with errors of both fact and judgment, they’re just looking desperate.

#CA10 : Online Organization

2009-05-05T00:15:00.000-07:00

Wednesday, March 18th, 2009

That is the day that Ellen Tauscher announced that she would be accepting the job as Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security. For all intents & purposes, that is also the day the campaign for California’s 10th district got under way.

First there was Adriel Hampton, and then Mark DeSaulnier, soon after Joan Buchanan jumped into the fray, and then Anthony Woods, and most recently, after abandoning his flailing gubernatorial campaign, John Garmendi decided he would run in the 10th as well.

So how are their respective campaigns going so far?

Adriel Hampton has been out on nights and weekends shaking hands with the locals in Walnut Creek, Livermore & elsewhere. I’ve run into him at both the Netroots Nation New Media summit and the CDP State Convention, handing out pens & literature. He’s got up a few websites to spread his message, and has his facebook site, as well as a weekly radio show on blogtalk radio. When it comes to Twitter, Adriel is the reigning king, often posting dozens of messages in a day.

When it comes to campaign websites, Anthony Woods’ team clearly understands the importance of an online presence. Woods has one of the slickest sites I’ve seen for any campaign, let alone amongst those in the 10th CD. While he has set up his Twitter account and sent out a few tweets, the clear focus has been on Facebook & ActBlue. In less than a week’s time, Anthony has been able to accumulate over 1500 supporters and has already collected $15,000 dollars. He’s also been spreading his message through my.barackobama. Pretty impressive, especially when you consider the fact that he spent the last week on the road, driving cross-country from the East Coast.

I’m not sure where he stands in the money game as he transitions from his gubernatorial run, but even John Garamendi really seems to be getting it when it comes to online operations. While his current campaign website may still be a bit disjointed between his current position as Lt Gov, a run for Governor, and his campaign for Congress, he is clearly filling in the gaps elsewhere. Garamendi makes a habit of posting a couple tweets through the day and has taken to personally thanking individuals that join his facebook group or add him as a friend. It’s a classy touch. Garamendi has also been posting diaries on various issues at Calitics & DailyKos and has taken to posting his campaign videos to YouTube. He also just released a poll which has gotten some play, showing that his name recognition & favorability ratings make him a clear frontrunner.

Joan Buchanan was the first to put out polling that showed her with a marginal lead over DeSaulnier in the district. She hasn’t really taken the jump into the online game yet, although she has set up a place holder website for her congressional run, and started a facebook group. Her ActBlue page is nicely integrated into her website and she’s already managed to collect over $5000 dollars. I get the impression that her campaign is doing a lot of preparatory work behind the scenes before she makes her big push.

That leaves us with Mark DeSaulnier…

I’m not exactly sure what the hell these folks are up too. Before Garamendi entered the race, DeSaulnier had locked up the endorsements of the democratic establishment as well as grabbing the endorsements of local labor, making him the early favorite. That was weeks ago and since then they seem content to rest on those laurels. Endorsements are nice and all, but they don’t really mean squat if the candidate isn’t getting his message out, and as of yet, the DeSaulnier camp is clearly not getting it. They have a Twitter account, but the problem is that they aren’t using it, and they wouldn’t even be that far along had Adriel Hampton not taken it upon himself to register the thing. They may want to think about reclaiming their name and getting to it. There is a Facebook group, but there isn’t really a whole lot going on there, and whoever is in charge of setting up the Facebook events has the problem of setting up meetings that look like they’re ongoing through the month, rather than taking place on a specific evening, which has led to some confusion. The DeSaulnier camp does have a basic website, but once again, the focus seems to be on endorsements, less on outreach. Even the ActBlue page isn’t very well integrated, and has only managed to bring in about $1000 dollars. Why they didn’t just make some simple edits to DeSaulniers regular website, until they could roll out something better rounded is beyond me. Last week the DeSaulnier campaign held three major kick-off events, but you wouldn’t know it, unless you happened to be there. Nevermind the traditional media, there is absolutely no presence in the blogs. Like a tree falling in the woods, there hasn’t been a peep about them. After renting space & equipment and having food catered in, I’m guessing that was one expensive tree, which did nothing but to offer some warm fuzzies to folks who were already planning on supporting Mark in the first place. Between the three events, I understand they managed to come up with maybe a dozen people to do phonebanking, so they weren’t a total loss I guess. Certainly didn’t offer the splash they could have though. It’s been a month and a half since this campaign started and from my eyes they are no further along than the day they locked up their endorsements. DeSaulnier does realize he’s running for Congress here right? It’s kind of a big deal. Get it together man.

While I feel that all of the candidates could be using online social media tools more effectively, its nice to see that the majority of the candidates running in California’s 10th seem to get the importance of an online dialogue with their constituents. It’s disappointing that the two candidates that don’t seem to be getting it happen to be my local legislators. I’m especially frustrated to see Mark DeSaulnier, who is considered by many to be the local favorite, making no attempts at getting further involved with the online progressive community.

John Garamendi: Grow Where You're Planted

2009-05-02T15:18:00.000-07:00

There’s an old saying… “Grow where you’re planted.” Perhaps nowhere is that adage more apt than in the current John Garamendi CA-10 vs. CA-03 controversy.

When John Garamendi kicked off his campaign for the special election in CA-10, he unveiled an introductory video laying out his reasons for running. Unfortunately for Garamendi, who actually lives in CA-03, the video served to demonstrate just exactly how out of touch he is with CA-10. Watch the video for yourself and pay special attention to how Garamendi claims to have helped the residents of CA-10, first through passing legislation 30 years ago to pave the way for windmills on the Altamont Pass (sorry, that’s actually in CA-11, Jerry McNerney’s district) and then through his actions as Insurance Commissioner after the Oakland Hills fire (sorry, that’s actually in CA-09, Barbara Lee’s district).

Then, more recently, while speaking from the podium at the CDP convention, Garamendi referred to the special event where he formally announced his candidacy, talking about his visit to the unemployment office in Fremont (sorry, that’s in CA-13, Pete Stark’s district).

What’s become clear through all this is a) John Garamendi doesn’t seem to know where CA-10, the district he wants to represent in Congress, actually is; and b) he doesn’t seem very attuned to the problems and concerns of the people who live in the district.

But there’s a solution. Garamendi could, and should, try running in the district where he’s spent most of his life, the district where he lives, CA-03. Now, CA-03 has an honest-to-goodness bad guy Republican that needs to be sent packing, in the form of Dan Lungren. And John Garamendi seems like just the guy to do it. Indeed, there’s a Draft Garamendi movement that has sprung up in the last few weeks, and the message is being pushed out via an online petition, a facebook group, and twitter. And far from being a fly-by-night idea, this movement has been gaining a lot of traction, even in far-away Washington, DC. A recent article in the National Journal featured the notion that maybe John Garamendi is running in the wrong district, and an earlier article in Roll Call (subscription), made it clear that the Draft Garamendi movement is on the DCCC’s screen:

Andrew Stone, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said D.C. Democrats are aware of the movement to draft Garamendi into the 3rd district race, but would not comment further, except to say, “That district is one that we’re really paying close attention to.”

Now there’s a new YouTube video out with none other than John Garamendi himself speaking out on the need for a strong challenger to take on Dan Lungren.

X-posted from The Progressive Connection

2/3: Adventure at the CDP Convention

2009-04-29T23:50:00.000-07:00

Guest Post by Ellis Goldberg, President of the Tri-Valley Democratic Club.

A couple of months ago I realized that there was no apparent movement to undo the 2/3 rule that prevents the CA legislators from doing their job. Sally Sweetser & I wrote a resolution to present to the CDP at the convention. The resolution calls for a change to simple majority for BOTH budget and revenue legislation. We went through the proper procedure and several Democratic Clubs and the Contra Costa Central Committee passed the resolution telling the state party to endorse this position.

Five resolutions were submitted to the CDP Resolutions Committee concerning the 2/3 rule. We attended the Resolutions Committee meeting. They decided to condense the five into one, which unfortunately did not include the part about revenue. It is like being strangled by two hands but only trying to remove one of them. The accepted resolution was written by not yet elected Chair John Burton.

Before the meeting I spoke to several committee members asking for their support and was assured by the Chair that I would get a chance to speak at the committee meeting. The meeting started and only members of the committee were initially allowed to speak. There were a total of 119 resolutions many of which were condensed. All were put on a consent calendar to be voted on at once. In order for any of the 119 resolutions to be considered individually, debated and addressed by their authors, a member of the committee had to pull the resolution to be considered separately. None of the committee members pulled the resolution, which meant it would go to the convention floor as is. Voting on these resolution would take place Sunday afternoon at the end of the convention. The committee rules as posted on the CDP website say nothing about the pull procedure.

We later heard that delegates are allowed to pull resolutions from the floor and request amendments. Sally did that. Sally, Contra Costa County Party Chair Chuck Carpenter and I were prepared to make our case to the assembled convention. We waited impatiently as members of the legislature & delegates debated props 1A-1F and other resolutions. Then someone asked for a quorum call which unfortunately would have ended all voting at the convention since many delegates already left. Then that delegate rescinded the quorum call. I thanked him for doing that.

Then another delegate approached Sally and I asking to speak on our resolution, he wanted to say something about term limits. Sally told him that is off the topic. He threatened a quorum call. Sally read the name on his badge and said she would remember him. I spoke to Chuck who said to let the guy talk. The guy seemed satisfied.

Chuck realized that any delegate opposing the resolution could make a quorum call, that would kill the resolution altogether, so Chuck and Sally decided to rescind the pull and instead try to pass our resolution at the meet e-board meeting in June on the peninsula. Chuck went up to the stage and got Alex Rooker the new female Vice Chair to support our position at the e-board meeting. I was really stressed by then and had a toothache to boot. I had a root canal today.

It ain't over. Chuck offered me a seat on the CDP Resolutions Committee, I said "no thanks". Burton will name a new Resolutions Committee soon.

Sunday at #CDP09

2009-04-29T20:04:00.000-07:00

For a rundown of Sunday's events, go check out Calitics. They do the resolutions votes more justice than I could. I missed half the mornings events sleeping in and trying to find something to eat. I blame the bartender at the Wyclef show the night before. I'd ask for a shot and she'd poor me a half glass. Couldn't let it go to waste!

Saturday at #CDP09

2009-04-29T19:56:00.000-07:00

So I finally got to bed at about 4am on Friday…well I guess it was really Saturday by then…and it wasn’t much later that I was rolling out of bed for the Woman’s caucus at 7:30. I don’t know who the hells idea that was, but I promised Karen Weinstein that I’d be there for her, and damned if I was going to let her down. Rough morning though, let me tell you. In the end Karen won the Chair and it was all worth it.

I don’t know what I was thinking though. When I was leaving the hotel at 7 to head down to the convention center, I had the bright idea that I would come back after the caucus to shower and grab my laptop and camera and whatnot. Well that was dumb. I didn’t end up making it back to the hotel again until 5am the next morning and spent the whole day completely disconnected. With everything that was going on and so many different events that I wanted to attend, I felt like I spent the whole morning playing catch up.

After only a few hours of sleep & too much tequila the night before…the rest of Saturday morning is all kind of a blur. At one point I went across the street to grab some breakfast & ended up hanging out there way too long chatting it up with folks. Then I ran back to the Gavin booth to pick up my ticket the Wyclef Block Party later that night. I later found out from my mom that some people were offering up to $4000 dollars for a ticket. Crazy. I wish one of them would have found me.

Having taken care of all the things I needed to I got myself into the hall to catch some of the speeches that were being given. I didn’t end up staying long, as soon after it was time for the Young Dems luncheon. I do recall Garamendi making some comment about a visit to Fremont and wondering if he was now planning to run against Pete Stark too. This guy is killing me. I’m not sure if he knows what he’s running for at this point…but I’ll get to that in a separate post.

Over at the CYD luncheon I met up with my fellow East Bay Young Dems and finally got a real meal, which was desperately needed. Gavin was the star of the show and made the rounds around the room as the masses flocked around him. He gave a rousing speech on the need for our politicians to make bold moves and take strong stands. Anthony Woods, who is running for Congress in California’s 10th, also made an appearance and took a moment to introduce himself. After Newsom’s speech I had tried to make my way over to him to ask him whether he would take the bold move of supporting Tom Ammiano’s AB 390, particularly if elected Governor…but his handlers had him out of the door too fast.

After the CYD Lunch it was time to get back over to the hall to do some campaigning for Hilary Crosby for CDP Controller. At first there were about 30 or 40 of us holding great big Hilary 4 Controller signs above our heads as we marched around the hall chanting HIL-A-RY! HIL-A-RY! That’s about the time that my voice started to go out. After marching around for a while I was informed that I was missing a blogger meetup with Gavin Newsom. I must have missed the memo…or tweet...or whatever. I got there just in time for the last 2 questions. I was so pissed. I really wanted to press him on his bold moves comment earlier at the luncheon and whether or not he supported marijuana legalization & taxation. Oh well… back to campaigning for Crosby.

So I did that for a while longer. More marching…more chanting…by the time we entered the hall to prepare for speeches and a vote there must have been about 70 of us. Unfortunately I had to take off for a while to go meet with Lt Gov John Garamendi across the street. I had questions that I wanted to ask him about his wanting to run in the 10th district. I got in a few questions but the answers I received were less than convincing. He spent most of the time filibustering on all of the other questions. At one point I actually started to nod off. Let’s just say that I didn’t get the same fuzzy feeling that I get when speaking with Mark DeSaulnier or Anthony Woods. I’ll have more to say on this later…but overall, I was pretty unimpressed.

Running late, I quickly made my way a few blocks down to catch up with Joan Buchanan & Nancy Skinner at a reception they were holding. This was really the hardest part of the weekend for me. As things start to pan out in the 10th it is becoming increasingly clear to me that I’m not going to be able to support her run for Congress. I really hate this part of politics. I have a lot of respect & admiration for what Buchanan was able to accomplish in the 15th AD, and I just really like her & all of her staff on a personal level. They have always been very warm, welcoming & open with me. It’s hard to have to tell people that you love, respect, & admire, that you won’t be supporting one of the most important endeavors they have ever taken part in. It sucks. When Joan & I spoke a little bit about where I was coming from, she ironically brought up a phrase in which I find myself using quite often as well… “It is what it is”

From Buchanan’s reception it was over to Mark DeSaulnier’s, where the Senator and some other folks & I had a great talk on the history of redistricting in the area and talked a little bit about the dynamics of the race. I actually spent most of the time talking with one of his staffers on the importance of online outreach and using new social media tools to encourage dialogue between candidates and their constituents. While I get the feeling that they don’t really get all of the technical aspects of online involvement, I’ve been rather impressed in my discussions with the DeSaulnier camp in regards to their understanding of the netroots in general. It seems like they have been wanting to jump into the online conversation, but just aren’t sure how to go about it. I hinted that I might be interested in helping them in that regard…but we’ll see.

The Take Back Red California dinner was next and I have to say that this was the highlight of the evening. Unfortunately I missed the cocktail hour before hand trying to track down the person to whom Id promised my extra ticket. That’s life though. We got in just in time to hear Howard Dean finishing his speech. I was starving by that time & dinner was great. After listening to speeches from Bill Durston, Charlie Brown, and Francine Busby…the real excitement came when Hilary Crosby took to the stage and started reading out the results from the days election. Saving the best for last, she finally announced that in the race for Controller…she had won! The room totally erupted. Standing ovations, and hands clapping, and voices screaming, and tears flowing, and then came the chants of “HIL-ARY!” “HIL-A-RY!” It was an amazing moment. Seeing the tears well up in Janet Stromberg’s eyes, it was all I could do to hold back and not join her. So many people had worked so hard on this race including Hilary herself who had spent the last months continually on the road up & down the state trying to make her case…sometimes in the unfriendliest of districts. As Hilary said in her speech…this wasn’t about her…it was about us. And it’s true…this race was our test…and this weekend we proved that the California Democratic Party is a progressive party.

Change is in the air!