PJMedia doubts the authenticity of AP’s photos of Sunni fighters in Tripoli:

Readers with military experience are probably already laughing at the images, but in case it isn’t obvious to everyone else: The gunmen are purportedly taking cover [...] and firing at an unseen enemy, but right next to them are several unconcerned bystanders who are themselves completely exposed to any return fire, and yet making no effort to hide or seek protection. Instead, many of them are standing around calmly and even laughing and smiling (as are the gunmen in some of the pictures), probably at the ridiculousness of the obviously staged battle.

Now that I’m looking at the photos again, this makes complete sense. But why did the AP photographer stage these images?

Instead of this being an example of fauxtography as political propaganda, it’s more likely in this case that the photographer, Hussein Malla, simply wanted to boost his career and reputation by being the only one to capture exciting battle scenes as they were happening

Or perhaps said Hussein Malla could have a political agenda of his own. I wonder what a scrutiny of his background and political affiliations would reveal.. The stakes are high and the PR war is fierce. Now that I’m thinking of it, why didn’t we get any photos of the Alawi fighters?

If one was to look for an item that unites the Lebanese, a man2oushé is a good place to start. But as popular as the breakfast staple is, there is another object that has continuously witnessed all aspects of Lebanese public life.

From politics, to weddings to modern art, the mighty arguileh established itself as an ultimate cultural icon, an icon that was never camera-shy.

Politics and Activism

In the Last few weeks, we had many events that involved an iconic picture of an Arguileh

The Tripoli clashes

The Jalledib Bridge Protests

Whatever the nature of the protest, the arguileh has always been around. Remember those famous tents in Beirut?

Tent city

On the Road

Speaking of the Jalledib protests, it created one of Lebanon’s largest traffic jams and people got bored out of their minds. Luckily, help was at hand:

Arguileh Delivery

These guys will make sure an arguileh is always a phone call away

If you can’t afford a delivery, you can always share one with your traffic buddies

A treat for all seasons

Winter

..or Summer

Social Events

Sharing a smoke in traffic is just one aspect of the Lebanese bonding over arguilehs. Whenever two or more Lebanese meet, an arguileh is likely to join soon

Courtship

Weddings

Date Nights

Girls night out

Boys day out

House parties

Art and Commerce

Arguiles are not just companions, they’re also the subject matter of artistic expression and commercial enterprise

Photography

Modern Sculpture

Artisanry

Billboards

Posters

… And if everything else fails..

You can always build your own arguileh:

This is by no means a comprehensive list. If you have a classic picture of an arguileh, a picture you believe belongs here, please by all means let me know about it in the comments section..

First, let’s talk about the different words being thrown around: Salafists, Armed Gangs and Terrorists

Salafists:

They look scary. They have scary thoughts and follow an obnoxious ideology that doesn’t believe in Lebanon as a country. BUT, their ideology does not condone a military struggle. In the latest events their chief role is demonstrating and blocking the roads using tires in protest to the way in which one of them was arrested.

Armed Gangs / Militias

Ragtag young men with weapons. They assign themselves causes like protecting their communities from a perceived enemy. Some of them might belong to Salafi groups, but not all of them do. Their motivations are more communitarian (“we want to defend our Sunni/Alawi brothers and sisters”) than religious (“we want to kill infidels”). They are the ones exchanging fire in Bab el Tebbane and Jabal Mohsen at the moment. “Armed gangs” describes both sides of the shooting.

Terrorists and or Alquaeda

A terrorist is someone who intentionally kills civilians, preferably on a large scale, to instill fear. Alquaeda are a higher class of terrorists because their operations are spectacular and involve suicide. You could call both sides of the Tripoli event terrorists if you want, but that would be a loose use of the word, based on the fact that they are shooting indiscriminately at each other without caring if innocent people die. Most importantly though, there is no evidence of any Alquaeda presence.

Why the differentiation is important

When fear is involved, nuance and reason are the first to go. If you see men with beards demonstrating and then you see armed gangs shooting, you are primed to mix it all together and believe the first person who throws the word “Alqaeda” in your face.

What’s important to remember is that there are two sides in this story that are both equally dangerous. They are both equally armed and they are both using heavy weapons: The Sunni armed gangs and some of their Salafi supporters on one hand, and the Allawi armed gangs and their Syrian regime supporters on the other.

What the Syrian regime is trying to do is to say: Look, maybe we are bad, but the others are monsters. They are terrorists. They are Alquaeda. The point of this post is that you shouldn’t fall for that.

Tehran, we have a problem

In the news today is a statement by an Iranian official that Lebanon could be getting Iranian electricity as soon as next week. Considering the state of affairs of the electricity in Lebanon, many would gladly (if begrudgingly) take that offer. But don’t hold your breath, it won’t happening anytime soon.

For such a deal to come through, according to a Lebanese ministerial source, three things need to happen:

• Cables would need to be laid from Iran to Lebanon via Aleppo, which is logistically impossible considering what is happening in Syria today
• Iran would need to find way to finance the deal without breaking international sanctions. Its current plans are not acceptable.
• The two sides need to agree on pricing. That didn’t happen yet.

Considering how immature such a project is, why are some Iranian and Lebanese officials talking about it in the media?

A political convenience for two sides.

From the Lebanese side, a lot of people are desperate for better electricity. Some politicians are calculating that an improvement of the electrical supply in Lebanon, even if it came from Iran, would be a popular thing to do. It also doesn’t hurt that these politicians are strategically aligned to Iran in the regional game of chess.

From the Iranian side, Tehran is feeling the heat from international sanctions on its banking sector. It’s trying hard to find new channels to get hard currency in. Selling electricity to Lebanon using cash would provide a nice little source of Euros to the Islamic Republic.

Too bad those pesky Lebanese bankers are more afraid from the American treasury department than they are of Iranian guns. But who knows? The Iranians are persistent and they will keep dangling that forbidden fruit in front of the starving Lebanese..

10 year old child from tebbané playing resistance (source: LBC)

As people are watching the events unfold in Tripoli, many are tempted to dismiss them as the usual clashes between pro-Assad Alawites in Jabal Mohsen and anti-Assad Islamists in Bab el Tebbaneh. The truth, alas, is that we are now entering a new chapter, one where things are a bit more complicated and a bit more like Syria.

It all started when a 27-year old Islamist, Shadi al Mawlawi, was arrested for “his ties to a terrorist organization” according to Lebanese security forces. As a result, a large group of Islamists have blocked vital roads and roundabouts in Tripoli and demanded his release, with a background of flaming tires and islamist and Syrian revolution flags. At the same time, some of Mawlawi’s sympathisers took their anger to pro-Assad Allawis and got entangled in a firefight that killed 3 people.

The Syrian Virus

Security forces have always rounded up Islamist “terrorists” in Tripoli, and Islamists have always protested the lack of due process and discrimination. But this time, because of events in Syria, things are different.

The Future Movement (FM) has decided to side with Mawlawi, calling for his release and accusing the security forces of behaving illegally. One future MP even compared the arrest of Mawlawi to the work of shabbiha, the pro-Assad thugs who round up and torture Syrian dissidents. Lebanon’s anti-Assad parties seem to be holding a grudge against Lebanese security forces which had prevented an arms ship from reaching the Syrian opposition last month.

On the other side of the spectrum, we have pro Assad politicians and members of the elites and minorities who are calling for an army heavy-handedness that indiscriminately “deals with” the Islamists. The army is promising to be “inflexible”

Danger ahead

So here we are now approaching a situation which resembles what is going on in Syria: A clash that pits Islamists with guns against an army which is promising heavy-handedness. Worse, mainstream anti-Assad groups are indulging the Islamists’ arms and the elites and minorities are so freaked out that they are ready to turn a blind eye to a possible army “clean up”.

We need to step back from this brink. The Future Movement especially should make it as clear as possible that while they sympathise with the Islamists’ cause, they do not condone in any way their use of weapons and their aggressive protests. Similarly, the security forces should become more transparent and follow due process when they make arrests that can potentially cause instability. If such steps are not taken soon, the events could spin into a spiral of violence that nobody in Lebanon has the stomach for.

Is there anything better for a highly indebted country with creaking infrastructure than the prospect of earning substantial amounts of cash from newly discovered natural resources? Repaying the national debt, building more schools and improving the roads can all be nothing but unalloyed good, right?

Not quite, as it turns out. New wealth from natural resources has a nasty habit of corrupting and entrenching ruling elites, and for various reasons, leaving countries worse off than before. This raises an important question: With the future prospect of oil income, how can Lebanon avoid what has become known as the “resource curse?”

Man with a plan

Mohammad Chatah, one of Lebanon’s prominent economists and a former finance minister, is proposing a bold idea: Give the money straight to the Lebanese people.

Let me say it outright: I believe Lebanon’s revenue from oil and gas should, as a matter of principle, be distributed directly to all the Lebanese people, in equal shares. And there are many reasons why.

Mr. Chatah’s proposal is not some fancy mental exercise by a bored academic. It is an impassioned case by a practical man for what in his opinion is the right and fair thing to do:

Radical as this may seem, I believe the direct distribution of natural resource revenues to all Lebanese is the most logical and the fairest thing to do. We can even add that it would be both illogical and unfair for the government to keep those receipts for itself. This is true even if the government is corruption-free and spends the money wisely.

Can it be done?

As a technical man and a former finance minister, Mr. Chatah appears confidant that Lebanon can work around the logistical difficulties that such a gargantuan task would entail (he seems to be a believer in the power of information technology). But can Lebanese politicians agree on a measure that is obviously against their own interests?

The plan is not as far fetched as it seems. Giving away money to people is a popular idea which can be a powerful political force. If it is brought up often enough in the media, people will start asking for it and putting pressure on politicians to bring it about. Moreover, the plan is a good philosophical fit for the Lebanese “no-winner, no-loser” mentality of governance. Think of it: Can you imagine a Lebanese party monopolizing power because it controlled oil wealth?

I still have some doubts. I worry for instance about inflation; giving money to people is similar to printing money. You are almost guaranteeing that prices will shoot up. That said, I am sold on Mr. Chatah’s brilliant idea and I think it deserves our support.

(Social instability is rearing its ugly head)

In case you haven’t noticed in the last few years, people and politicians have almost stopped talking about Lebanese national debt. What used to be a toxic political issue almost vanished as a talking point. It’s not because of fatigue or desperation, it’s simply because we were actually solving the problem.

Debts get easier to pay when countries grow as the debt becomes smaller as a percentage of GDP. Lebanon has been having an uninterrupted growth rally in the last few years. That reduced the debt from 168% of GDP in 2007 to 134% of GDP in 2011.

Double Trouble

Now, we are in danger of reversing that progress because of the events in Syria and because of the government’s policies.

The Syrian crisis has greatly impacted the Lebanese tourism and export sectors. The cheapest way for Arab tourists to come to Lebanon and for Lebanese goods to reach Arab countries was by land via Syria. With all the bombs, kidnappings and shellings, that is no longer a viable route. We get less people in Lebanese hotels and we send less apples to the gulf.

The other part of the problem is government policy. The Mikati government is constantly being pressured into populist measures like increasing the minimum wage and subsidizing fuel, measures that spike the debt without increasing growth. With an election year coming, we can expect even more government buying of people’s acquiescence with borrowed money.

The long haul

Things won’t be getting better soon: The Syrian crisis looks like a long-term problem and the Mikati government is set to stay in power as long as matters in Syria are not resolved.

As the debt increases and growth decreases, our cost of borrowing will become higher and the problem will become worse. There will be more pressure on the Lira to be devalued and social instability will become even more acute.

The IMF has noticed and has issued a warning. If no courageous measures are taken to reform the public sector, preferably with some sort of unity government, Lebanon seems to be heading towards a Greek drama: An unenviable position between a rock of debt and a hard place of social instability.

Mr. Hariri’s response was mediocre as a put-down. It betrayed anger and awkwardly tried to squeeze in an “I’m rising above the fray” sentiment towards the end.

Critics focused on the fact that Mr. Hariri responded in the first place. That he almost stooped to a level of bickering in his responses to Assy. Supporters retorted that to the contrary, the tweets show that Mr. Hariri is a real person, unlike other politicians (a.k.a Mr. Mikati) who let sleek PR firms do the tweeting for them.

Here’s my suggestion to Mr. Hariri: You’re mad at someone on twitter? Let him have it! Go all the way! What kind of rubbish is “have a nice day?” You can learn a lot from Haifa Wehbe, the queen of twitter put-downs (put-downs which only gain her more admiration) and incidentally one of the few Lebanese people who have more twitter influence than you do.

Think of it. What do you have to lose? Do you really think Jean Assy will ever start liking you because you told him to have a nice day?

It’s not that I am especially fond of arrogance. It’s because if I had to choose between two evils in a political leader, I’d go with arrogant confidence any day over hesitant babbling and faux-niceness. You’re a young, supposedly fiery politician. You’re not yet old enough to play “father of the nation”. So either give your supporters red meat and candy or let the PR firms do the tweeting..

I was positively surprised this morning when I peeked at my RSS counter (bottom of right sidebar) and found that 1019 of you are now subscribed to Beirut Spring’s RSS feed. I don’t usually celebrate statistical milestones — and I’ve had many since I started blogging in 2005 — but this one is close to my heart.

The reason I still prefer RSS over subscription devices like Facebook and Twitter is that RSS is still the best way not to miss what someone writes. Twitter and Facebook are great tools, but they’re more about what’s happening right now. A great blog post that was written 10 hours ago can easily get lost in a torrent of cool links and photos.

For those who are still not subscribed, perhaps you’d like to subscribe by email?

One more time, thank you.

There’s a new talking point in Beirut: An electoral law based on proportional representation is evil because it reinstates Damascus’ influence by increasing the power of its allies in Lebanon.

I understand when people like MP Walid Jumblatt peddle such rubbish. After all, he stands to significantly lose influence if such a law was to be enacted. But MP Hariri’s reiteration of this argument yesterday is very worrying to me.

It was established again and again that an election law based on proportionality is fairer and more representative than a winner-takes-all system. It is backed by upstanding and respected Lebanese public figures, by NGOs and by election theorists everywhere. To dismiss it as a Syrian conspiracy is a grave insult to our intelligence.

Mr. Hariri’s full throated attack on proportional representation in the May 6 rally betrays more than a lack of confidence. It contradicts his important message about the inevitability of Bashar Assad’s demise. How could the regime in Damascus be falling and plotting to take over Lebanon at the same time?

A more likely explanation is that this was a message from the Saudi King to MP Jumblat via Mr. Hariri. The Saudis are extending a hand of forgiveness and support to the druze leader because they could use all the allies they can get to fight the regime in Damascus.

I’m not naive about the intentions of some of the people who are promoting the law right now, but what I find disconcerting is the wholesale attack on it as if it were intrinsically bad (as opposed to ill-timed).

A more appropriate message would be to concede that the law is good but that it can only be implemented once the Syrian regime is gone. Instead, we are witnessing a complete shooting down of a good principle for the cynical reason of perpetuating one family’s hold on political power.