Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - Asia

Beyond Optimism and Pessimism: The Differential Effects of Nuclear Proliferation

Matthew Kroenig — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 00:00:00 -0500

Matthew Kroenig examines the effect of the spread of nuclear weapons on international politics. He proposes a theory of nuclear proliferation that examines the differential effects of nuclear proliferation. Kroenig argues that the threat nuclear proliferation poses to a particular state depends on that state’s ability to project military power. This article contributes to our understanding of the consequences of nuclear proliferation and contains important implications for nuclear nonproliferation policy.

South Korea's Growing Soft Power

Joseph S. Nye — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 13:27:13 -0500

"...South Korea has the resources to produce soft power, and its soft power is not prisoner to the geographical limitations that have constrained its hard power throughout its history. As a result, South Korea is beginning to design a foreign policy that will allow it to play a larger role in the international institutions and networks that will be essential to global governance."

The Big Impact of Small Footprints

Thomas Hegghammer — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 00:00:56 -0500

"The power of small incidents has increased in the past decade thanks to the Internet. Increasing bandwidth, cheaper digital cameras and fast-learning activists have turned the world wide web into a giant propaganda tool which can generate powerful visual messages and project them instantly to a global audience. The smallest detail can be dramatically enlarged and turned into a symbol of 'Muslim suffering at the hands of non-Muslims.' On jihadi discussion forums such as Faloja (named after the Iraqi city whose 2004 battles between jihadis and U.S. forces made it an icon of Muslim suffering), high-quality video productions appear on a daily basis. The relationship between objective physical destruction and jihadi mobilization has never been less linear."

China's Fuel Economy Standards for Passenger Vehicles: Rationale, Policy Process, and Impacts

Hongyan He Oliver, Kelly Sims Gallagher, Donglian Tian and Jinhua Zhang — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 23:29:10 -0500

"China issued its first Fuel Economy Standards (FES) for light-duty passenger vehicles (LDPV) in September 2004, and the first and second phases of the FES took effective in July 2005 and January 2008, respectively. The stringency of the Chinese FES ranks third globally, following the Japanese and European standards....The Chinese experience is highly relevant for countries that are also experiencing or anticipating rapid growth in personal vehicles, those wishing to moderate an increase in oil demand, or those desirous of vehicle technology upgrades."

Catalyzing Strategic Transformation to a Low-carbon Economy: A CCS Roadmap for China

Hengwei Liu and Kelly Sims Gallagher — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 15:32:49 -0500

China now faces the three hard truths of thirsting for more oil, relying heavily on coal, and ranking first in global carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. Given these truths, two key questions must be addressed to develop a low-carbon economy: how to use coal in a carbon-constrained future? How to increase domestic oil supply to enhance energy security? Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) may be a technological solution that can deal with today's energy and environmental needs while enabling China to move closer to a low-carbon energy future. This paper has been developed to propose a possible CCS roadmap for China.

Afghanistan is Neither Vietnam nor Iraq

William H. Tobey — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 12:27:48 -0500

"Afghanistan has little in common with either Vietnam or Iraq in terms of history, geography, culture, or politics. There is, however, a more apt analogy, and it involves the very area in dispute."

The Year the World Really Changed

Niall Ferguson — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 10:59:19 -0500

"...1989 was less of a watershed year than 1979. The reverberations of the fall of the Berlin Wall turned out to be much smaller than we had expected at the time. In essence, what happened was that we belatedly saw through the gigantic fraud of Soviet superpower. But the real trends of our time—the rise of China, the radicalization of Islam, and the rise and fall of market fundamentalism—had already been launched a decade earlier."

Who Caused the End of the Cold War?

Joseph S. Nye — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 11:31:25 -0500

"Ultimately the deepest causes of Soviet collapse were the decline of communist ideology and the failure of the Soviet economy. This would have happened even without Gorbachev. In the early Cold War, communism and the Soviet Union had a good deal of soft power. Many communists had led the resistance against fascism in Europe, and many people believed that communism was the wave of the future....Although in theory communism aimed to instill a system of class justice, Lenin's heirs maintained domestic power through a brutal state security system involving lethal purges, gulags, broad censorship, and the use of informants. The net effect of these repressive measures was a general loss of faith in the system."

Sectoral Approaches for a Post-2012 Climate Regime: A Taxonomy

Jonas Meckling and Gu Yoon Chung — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 17:26:11 -0500

Sectoral approaches have been gaining currency in the international climate debate as a possible remedy to the shortfalls of the Kyoto Protocol. Proponents argue that a sector-based architecture can more easily invite the participation of developing countries, address competitiveness issues, and enable immediate emissions reductions. However, given the numerous proposals, much confusion remains as to what sectoral approaches actually are. This article provides a simple, yet comprehensive, taxonomy of the various proposals for sectoral approaches.

Climate Finance

The Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 10:40:05 -0500

The finance of climate mitigation and adaptation in developing countries represents a key challenge in the negotiations on a post-2012 international climate agreement. Finance mechanisms are important because stabilizing the climate will require significant emissions reductions in both the developed and the developing worlds, and therefore large-scale investments in energy infrastructure. The current state of climate finance has been criticized for its insufficient scale, relatively low share of private-sector investment, and insufficient institutional framework. This policy brief presents options for improving and expanding climate finance.

Pride and Prejudice and Prithvis: Strategic Weapons Behavior in South Asia

Vipin Narang — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 16:45:02 -0500

Vipin Narang's chapter "Pride and Prejudice and Prithvis: Strategic Weapons Behavior in South Asia" in the book Inside Nuclear South Asia was published by Stanford University. Narang examines the ballistic missile flight-testing pattern in the region as a proxy for nuclearization and as an indicator for both states' strategic weapons decisions, attempting to clarify the variables that drive both India and Pakistan to test strategic weapons when they do.

Muddling Through: How Development's Past Shapes Its Future

David Ekbladh — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 14:45:35 -0500

International development is back. President Barack Obama has given it significance in U.S. strategy not seen since the Cold War. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's much touted "Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review," emphasizes her own belief that it is, "a core pillar of American power."

In Afghanistan, Kerry Keeps U.S. Goals Modest

Graham Allison — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 13:46:32 -0500

"President Obama confronts the most fateful foreign policy decision so far of his administration," says Graham Allison, director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. "Rapidly deteriorating security in Afghanistan, the post-election political crisis in Kabul, highlighted by Abdullah Abdullah's decision to drop out of the runoff vote, and General Stanley McChrystal's request for 44,000 troops rightly spurred Obama to call a timeout for reflection."

Petraeus, not Westmoreland

Ben Heineman — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 13:25:59 -0500

"I think it is the grappling with important problems with greater-than-expected candor, genuine authenticity and extraordinary sacrifice that accounts for the military's high standing. The chosen military messengers often convey that. Can we say the same of other sectors of society: hard problems, candor, authenticity, sacrifice?"

Hard Decisions on Soft Power: Opportunities and Difficulties for Chinese Soft Power

Joseph S. Nye and Wang Jisi — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 17:34:09 -0400

"But just as China's economic and military power does not yet match that of the United States, China's soft power still has a long way to go as demonstrated by a Chicago Council on Global Affairs poll. China does not have cultural industries like Hollywood, and its universities are not yet the equal of the United States. It lacks the many non-governmental organizations that generate much of US soft power. Politically, China suffers from corruption, inequality, and a lack of democracy, human rights and the rule of law. While that may make the "Beijing consensus" attractive in authoritarian and semi-authoritarian developing countries, it undercuts China's soft power in the West. Although China's new diplomacy has enhanced its attractiveness to its neighbors in Southeast Asia, the belligerence of its hard power stance toward Taiwan hurt it in Europe when China sought to persuade Europeans to relax their embargo on the sale of arms. Given the domestic problems that China must still overcome, there are limits to China's ability to attract others, but one would be foolish to ignore the gains the country is making."

Why the Renminbi has to Rise to Address Imbalances

Martin Feldstein — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 09:39:42 -0400

"China's policy of keeping the renminbi weak means that the US dollar must decline more rapidly against the euro, yen and other currencies to achieve the same overall trade-weighted fall of the dollar," says Martin Feldstein, member of the Belfer Center's board of directors. "China's weak renminbi policy therefore not only prevents remedying China's large current account surplus but also reduces Europe's exports," he says.

The Future of Pakistan: A Conversation with Simon Shercliff and Hassan Abbas

Hassan Abbas and Simon Shercliff — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 09:09:32 -0400

October 30, 2009

Hassan Abbas, a former Pakistani government official and senior advisor to Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center, recently spoke to Simon Shercliff, First Secretary Foreign Security and Policy for the British Embassy, about the future of Pakistan. Their conversation touched on a range of topics, including the militants' recent attacks on the Pakistani military, Pakistan's relationship with India, Pakistan-UK relations, and U.S. aid to Pakistan.

Testing the NATO Alliance: Afghanistan and the Future of Cooperation

Azeem Ibrahim — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 00:15:01 -0400

"...[O]n the ground, Afghanistan does not look like a NATO mission, but a deployment of an ad hoc alliance. This impression is bolstered given that eight non-NATO countries are also contributing troops. This arrangement calls into question how genuine and useful the alliance will be in the future. It is no good to argue that NATO countries should share the burden more equally. That will not be enough to persuade skeptical governments to offer more troops. The truth is that the differences in deployment levels reflect real differences of public and political opinion. Unfortunately, there is no reason to expect that they should agree in the future either, as there is no longer agreement on what constitutes NATO's mission in Afghanistan."

Afghans Need to Find a New Model of Democracy

Paul Fishstein — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 16:03:34 -0400

"While democracy is notoriously difficult to define, it is generally considered to be something positive. Until the debacle of the August presidential elections, 'fledgling democracy' was touted as one of the west's great achievements in Afghanistan."

Three Pillars of Post-2012 International Climate Policy

Sheila M. Olmstead and Robert N. Stavins — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 18:03:35 -0400

Our proposal for a post-2012 international global climate policy agreement contains three essential elements: meaningful involvement by key industrialized and developing nations; an emphasis on an extended time path of targets; and inclusion of market-based policy instruments. This architecture is consistent with fundamental aspects of the science, economics, and politics of global climate change.

Russian Nuke Plans, Overkill

Simon Saradzhyan — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 13:03:20 -0400

October 22, 2009

The Russian military and security community's drive to expand the use of nuclear weapons in the new defense doctrine will add little value to deterring real threats, but may undermine Russia's image as a co-leader of nuclear arms control, Simon Saradzhyan comments for ISN Security Watch.

High Cost, Low Odds

Stephen M. Walt — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 16:34:44 -0400

"...America's odds of winning this war are slim. The Karzai government is corrupt, incompetent and resistant to reform. The Taliban have sanctuaries in Pakistan and can hide among the local populace, making it possible for them simply to outlast us. Pakistan has backed the Afghan Taliban in the past and is not a reliable partner now. Our European allies are war-weary and looking for the exits. The more troops we send and the more we interfere in Afghan affairs, the more we look like foreign occupiers and the more resistance we will face. There is therefore little reason to expect a US victory."

U.S., Russia Must Lead on Arms Control

General Brent Scowcroft, Joseph S. Nye, R. Nicholas Burns and Strobe Talbott — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 16:10:15 -0400

"The Nobel Peace Prize Committee cited Obama's dedication to arms control and nonproliferation when announcing last Friday his selection as this year's laureate. If he creates a positive, mutually reinforcing dynamic in the way he presents and sequences the two treaties [NPT and CTBT], it will give momentum and coherence to follow-on negotiations and the agreements that they produce."

Obama's Nuclear Agenda

Joseph S. Nye — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 14:45:06 -0400

"So long as the world remains a dangerous place with several nuclear weapons states, Obama must reassure its allies about the credibility of American guarantees of extended deterrence. Otherwise, reductions that create anxieties in other countries could lead them to develop their own weapons and thus increase the number of nuclear weapons states."

Transformative Choices: Leaders and the Origins of Intervention Strategy

Elizabeth N. Saunders — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 10:59:50 -0400

When and why do great powers seek to transform foreign institutions and societies through military interventions? What role does executive leadership play in influencing the choice of intervention strategy, especially the degree to which an intervention interferes in the domestic institutions of the target state?

China's Naval Nationalism: Sources, Prospects, and the U.S. Response

Robert Ross — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 10:41:58 -0400

Recent developments in Chinese politics and defense policy indicate that China will soon embark on an ambitious maritime policy that will include construction of a power-projection navy centered on an aircraft carrier. But just as nationalism and the pursuit of status encouraged past land powers to seek great power maritime capabilities, widespread nationalism, growing social instability, and the leadership's concern for its political legitimacy drive China's naval ambition.

Bad Debts: Assessing China's Financial Influence in Great Power Politics

Daniel W. Drezner — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 10:17:12 -0400

Commentators and policymakers have articulated growing concerns about U.S. dependence on China and other authoritarian capitalist states as a source of credit to fund the United States' trade and budget deficits. What are the security implications of China's creditor status? If Beijing or another sovereign creditor were to flex its financial muscles, would Washington buckle?

Deciphering the Attack on Pakistan's Army Headquarters

Hassan Abbas — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 12:44:00 -0400

"This was neither the first attack on an army structure in the country nor the most deadly — but it is unprecedented given the extent of the breach of the GHQ security, the confusion that it created in its initial stage (raising concerns about the safety of army chief Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani), and its timing vis-à-vis the planned launch of a ground military operation in South Waziristan. It could be a transformational event for the army — cementing its resolve against local militants, bridging internal divisions and forcing a review of its intelligence estimates. However, jumping to conclusions without a thorough investigation and reacting rashly based on preconceived notions would be highly counterproductive. Additionally, though Pakistan's nuclear installations are not in the immediate vicinity of GHQ, the nature of the attack raises questions about how security agencies would react if a future attack targets any of the nuclear weapons facilities."

Whatever He Decides, Afghanistan Will Hurt Obama

Aaron Rapport — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 01:28:30 -0400

"...Obama is unlikely to decrease his commitment to Afghanistan, even if assessments of the situation there grow increasingly dire. Instead he will probably opt to push the day of reckoning down the road. This is not just cynical politics on Obama's part. Powerful, success-oriented individuals tend to believe they can find solutions to even the most intractable problems if they are given enough time. As a result, they underestimate the long-term risks and costs of their actions."

Corruption--The Afghan Wild Card

Ben Heineman — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 13:59:39 -0400

"But-- and here it becomes vexatious-- how can this be done by a weak, corrupt government during a dangerous insurgency, especially after a contested election marked by serious fraud? And, if corruption is not effectively addressed in a short time frame, does this undermine -indeed checkmate--- the ultimate military mission as expressed by President Obama earlier this year to disrupt, dismantle and eventually defeat al Qaeda and prevent their return to Afghanistan by defeating the Taliban insurgency."