Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - Asia

Will US-Japan Alliance Survive?

Joseph S. Nye — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 12:01:49 -0400

"...[T]he U.S.-Japan alliance will have to face a new set of transnational challenges to our vital interests, such as pandemics, terrorism, and human outflows from failed states. Chief among these challenges is the threat posed by global warming, with China having surpassed the U.S. as the leading producer of carbon-dioxide emissions (though not in per capita terms)."

Politicians are Demolishing the Reputation of the British Military

Azeem Ibrahim — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 08:14:32 -0400

"In 2006, British and Canadian forces arrived in Helmand province. We were to hold and secure it. But our forces did not receive the support they needed. Resources were split between Afghanistan and Iraq, and the government repeatedly turned down requests to spend more on equipment, particularly helicopters.

The results speak for themselves. Firstly, Taliban fighters have been able to tap into opium revenues. They have increased their areas of drug cultivation from 71 square milles in 2001 to 400 square miles in 2008. This would not have been possible if our strategy to make the area unsafe for Taliban had been adequately supported."

Preventing Nuclear Terrorism: Securing Pakistani Nuclear Weapons

Rolf Mowatt-Larssen — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 16:55:59 -0400

"The problem is not the quality of Pakistan's nuclear security efforts. The problem is that the standard for success is so unforgiving. In a world in which terrorists are actively seeking weapons of mass destruction, there can be no breakdown in security that enables terrorists to obtain a nuclear bomb."

Obama's Style Trumps Substance, Again

Stephen M. Walt — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 15:32:45 -0400

"The tone of U.S.-Russian diplomacy was much improved, and Obama is returning to Washington with several concrete agreements, but the summit did not yield a significant breakthrough on any major issue. In fact, like much of Obama's foreign policy to date, the Moscow summit was as much a triumph of style and attitude as an achievement in terms of substance. Russian-American relations may now be headed in the right direction, but both sides have a long way to go."

Sharing Global CO2 Emission Reductions Among One Billion High Emitters

Mon, 06 Jul 2009 17:45:28 -0400

The 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) created a 2-tier world. It called upon the developed ("Annex I") countries to "take the lead" in reducing carbon emissions, and, under the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities," established no time frame for developing countries to follow. However, a consensus is now emerging in favor of low stabilization targets. These targets cannot be achieved without the participation of developing countries, which today emit about half of global CO2 emissions and whose future emissions increase faster than the emissions of industrialized countries under "business as usual" scenarios.

Ending North Korea's Nuclear Ambitions: The Need for Stronger Chinese Action

Hui Zhang — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 14:32:10 -0400

North Korea has recently taken a series of provocative steps to challenge the international community. If unchecked, North Korea will surely increase the quantity and quality of its arsenal. Even worse, once Pyongyang has more than enough weapons for its deterrent, it might be tempted to sell the surplus. The longer the crisis lasts, the more nuclear capable North Korea will become and the more difficult it will be to roll back Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions. A nuclear North Korea would put China's national interests at great risk. Beijing can increase pressure on Pyongyang, using positive inducements and punitive measures. The chances are low, however, that Beijing will radically adjust its North Korea policy, at least for the near future. Beijing will continue to maintain its bottom-line approach, avoiding war on the Korean peninsula and an abrupt collapse of the Kim regime. From China's perspective, these scenarios must be avoided at all costs because they are contrary to China's primary interest in a stable environment.

Defense For a Real Threat

Trey Obering and Eric S. Edelman — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 14:25:05 -0400

July 6, 2009

"The East-West Institute released a study in late May by U.S. and Russian "experts" on the Iranian missile threat that concluded the threat "is not imminent and that in any event the system currently proposed would not be effective against it." The next day, Defense Secretary Robert Gates says, Iran apparently tested a multistage, solid-propellant missile with a range of 1,200 to 1,500 miles, putting much of Europe within range."

On Robert McNamara

Joseph S. Nye — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 12:40:17 -0400

"...I assign the Errol Morris film The Fog of War to my students in a course about leadership and ethics in foreign policy. What the film shows is a man who belatedly realized his frailties and decided to warn a younger generation not to repeat his mistakes. Many former policy makers spend their time after office trying to cast their actions in the best possible light for history. Bob was a rare exception in exposing his mistakes...."

Nuclear Security in Pakistan: Reducing the Risks of Nuclear Terrorism

Rolf Mowatt-Larssen — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 09:20:57 -0400

"The greatest threat of a loose nuke scenario stems from insiders in the nuclear establishment working with outsiders, people seeking a bomb or material to make a bomb. Nowhere in the world is this threat greater than in Pakistan."

Peace with Honor?

Ivan Arreguin-Toft — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 20:43:07 -0400

"'Peace with honor.' This was the Nixon administration's euphemism for disengagement from South Vietnam, a place where corruption and incompetence had long doomed any hope of victory; even a victory as modest as the simple negative objective of preserving the political independence of tiny South Vietnam."

Joseph Nye's Testimony from Hearings on 'Japan's Changing Role'

Joseph S. Nye — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 12:05:36 -0400

Joseph S. Nye testified before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs' Subcommittee on Asia, the Pacific and the Global Environment on "Japan's Changing Role" on June 25, 2009.

Funding for U.S. Efforts to Improve Controls Over Nuclear Weapons, Materials, and Expertise Overseas: A 2009 Update

Andrew Newman and Matthew Bunn — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 15:51:52 -0400

Andrew Newman and Matthew Bunn assess the Obama administration's fiscal year 2010 budget request for programs to improve controls over nuclear weapons, materials, and expertise worldwide. Funding for U.S. Efforts to Improve Controls Over Nuclear Weapons, Materials, and Expertise Overseas: A 2009 Update concludes that the request is a "steady as you go" budget and recommends that Congress and the administration work together to establish a $500 million contingency fund that could be used flexibly on a range of nuclear security programs.

The Return of Economic Nationalism

Eric Kaufmann — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 14:13:23 -0400

"...[E]conomic nationalists sacrifice material consumption for the national pride that comes with being a creditor nation that owns foreign assets. On this logic, the U.S. trade imbalance cannot be rectified by the marketplace alone....This sticks in the throat of those who prize national self-sufficiency and the moral fiber that comes from saving more than one spends....Traces of economic nationalism survive in America. It is no accident that the most successful U.S. vehicles are trucks, powerful symbols of rural and working-class masculine patriotism. That GM and Chrysler are being bailed out is partly because their products have been immortalized in song and film as national icons."

Don't Play Nuclear Chicken with a Desperate Pariah

Hui Zhang — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 13:25:21 -0400

"This game of escalation will go on and on until North Korea gets what it desires most from Washington: a reliable security assurance. Of course, no one likes to yield to dictators. But ultimately, playing chicken with a desperate and nuclear-armed North Korea is too risky to endeavor. The more isolated the North Koreans become, the more likely they will be to use the nuclear card in threatening two hostages: South Korea and Japan. Everyone loses that game"

Assessing North Korea's Uranium Enrichment Capabilities

Hui Zhang — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 17:50:27 -0400

In mid-June 2009, Pyongyang threatened to begin enriching uranium in an effort to expand its nuclear weapons program. While much is known about North Korea's plutonium production program, far less is understood about what enrichment capabilities Pyongyang currently possesses. Dr. Hui Zhang argues that the evidence seems to indicate that North Korea currently has a very limited capacity for enrichment.

Foreign Students are an Opportunity, Not a Threat

Azeem Ibrahim — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 16:42:45 -0400

"...[W]e should resist the temptation to react to the fear of terrorism by turning inwards, reducing ties to foreign countries, and denying more students entry. Reducing the number of foreign student Visas would be counterproductive. The US tried it after September 11th, but has now reversed its approach, realising the harm it is doing. To do the same would be to be cowed into becoming a more closed society. We must remain open, outward-looking and vibrant. It is precisely many of these foreign students who will help their countries to reduce terrorism over the long run."

Improving Russia-U.S. Relations: The Next Steps

Thomas M. Nichols — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 22:22:40 -0400

There is no endemic reason for Russian-U.S. relations to be as tense as they have become over the past several years. Th is situation is largely due, on one side, to mishandling of Russian affairs by both the Clinton and Bush administrations, and on the other by the obvious manipulation of anti-Americanism for domestic gain by the Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev administrations in Russia. Unfortunately, this means that only unilateral U.S. action can undermine the cynical policies of the Russian leadership and restore dynamism to the Russian-U.S. relationship.

Enhancing Full-Spectrum Flexibility: Striking the Balance to Maximize Force Effectiveness in Conventional and Counterinsurgency Operations

William D. Anderson, Jr. — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 21:43:21 -0400

With the United States currently engaged in difficult and taxing counterinsurgency operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, renewed emphasis has been focused upon the country's capabilities and priorities vis-à-vis this type of warfare. Within the military, the Air Force has been especially and increasingly criticized for being too enamored with a Cold-War era conventionally minded force structure and for not shifting aggressively to meet the threats of COIN-style conflicts that many predict will be pervasive throughout the Global War on Terror.

This paper addresses the conceptual capabilities and limitations of air power in COIN in order to illuminate how the Air Force can leverage the distinct asymmetric advantage that air power presents across the spectrum of conflict. This asymmetry is founded upon a clear U.S. superiority in air power capabilities combined with the unique flexibility inherent in air power. An understanding of air power's efficacy in COIN, measured against conventional requirements and capabilities, will inform decisions on appropriate force structure and employment.

The Fight for Pakistan's Soul

Hassan Abbas — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 20:54:29 -0400

"...[A] lot depends on the state's capacity to hold the Swat area and re-establish civilian institutions there. And, even if the state succeeds, re-asserting control over Swat will only be the first step. The Taliban is spread throughout the NWFP and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas. "Punjabi Taliban" militants from the fighting in Kashmir against India continue to shuttle between the Punjab heartland and the Northwest Territories, posing another serious challenge to government authority."

Driving Carbon Capture and Storage Forward in China

Hengwei Liu and Kelly Sims Gallagher — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 19:09:23 -0400

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), as an option in the portfolio of mitigation actions to combat climate change, is expected to have far-reaching implications for China. This paper (1) explores the strategic significance of CCS for China by making an extreme scenario analysis of Chinese power sector in 2030; (2) provides an overview of the recent CCS activities in China; and (3) identifies the major challenges with respect to CCS development in China and put forwards immediate strategies.

Understanding China's Climate Change Policy—From Both International and Domestic Perspectives

Bo Wang — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 17:41:01 -0400

China's climate change policy expresses both continuity and change over time. Continuity is observed in China's active involvement in policy formation, both domestically and internationally. Changes are reflected both in China's institutional arrangements on climate change mitigation and adaptation and increasing flexibility in international negotiations. Both continuity and change can be attributed to international and domestic factors. Among China's foreign policy objectives are enhancing its international image, international engagement, sovereignty concerns, and solidarity with developing countries. Domestic objectives include the need for continued economic development, increased attention to environmental protection, and social learning effects.

Observations on the Recent United Nations Security Council Resolution on North Korea

William H. Tobey — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 16:16:17 -0400

On June 12, 2009, the United Nations Security Council adopted Resolution 1874 in response to recent provocative actions by North Korea, including a second nuclear test. Chinese and Russian support for a new U.N. Security Council resolution that imposes additional sanctions is potentially significant. However, whether China in particular will support tough implementation of the resolution and will take a harder line in its bilateral relations with North Korea remains to be seen, and will ultimately determine the success or failure of efforts to reverse North Korea's nuclear weapons program.

China Should Abandon All-Carrot Approach

Hui Zhang — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 16:32:50 -0400

June 9, 2009

Hui Zhang's Op-Ed, "China Should Abandon All-Carrot Approach," was published in The Global Times, Beijing. In the Op-Ed Zhang argues "China should show its willingness to contribute to international nonproliferation efforts," by "abandon[ing] its temperate approach to North Korea."

Bonn Climate Negotiations: From the Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements

Sasha Talcott and Robert C. Stowe — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 18:37:58 -0400

The current negotiations in Bonn, Germany, mark a major step on the road to the next international climate agreement. With the negotiating text now being discussed, the Harvard Project has a wide array of research papers and policy ideas, each condensed into a two-page summary, which may be useful to those working on these issues. We have chosen to highlight some of those most relevant to the Bonn negotiating agenda.

Sustainable Development of the Indian Coal Sector

Ananth Chikkatur, Ambuj D. Sagar and T. L. Sankar — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 15:24:56 -0400

Increased availability of energy, especially electricity, is important for India to help advance economic and human development. Coal, which currently accounts for more than 50% of total primary commercial energy supply in the country and for about 70% of total electricity generation, is likely to remain a key energy source for India for at least the next 30–40 years. Thus, sustainable development of the Indian coal sector is necessary to ensure the ability to sustain the increased production of coal in the country and to do so in an environmentally and socially sustainable manner.

In-use Vehicle Emissions in China: Beijing Study

Wed, 03 Jun 2009 22:29:42 -0400

China's economic boom in the last three decades has spurred increasing demand for transportation services and personal mobility. Consequently, vehicle population has grown rapidly since the early 1990s, especially in megacities such as Beijing, Guangzhou, and Tianjin. As a result, mobile sources have become more conspicuous contributors to urban air pollution in Chinese cities.

Tianjin was our first focus city, and the study there took us about two years to complete. Building upon the experience and partnership generated through the Tianjin study, the research team carried out the Beijing study from fall 2007–fall 2008.

Beijing was chosen to be our second focus city for several reasons: it has the largest local fleet and the highest percentage of the population owning vehicles among all Chinese cities, and it has suffered from severe air pollution, partially due to the ever-growing population of on-road vehicles.

A Joint Workshop on Promoting the Development and Deployment of IGCC/Co-Production/CCS Technologies in China and the United States

Lifeng Zhao, Yunhan Xiao and Kelly Sims Gallagher — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 16:27:31 -0400

The workshop examined issues surrounding Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) coal plants, which turn coal into gas and remove impurities before the coal is combusted, and the related carbon capture and sequestration, in which the carbon dioxide emissions are captured and stored underground to avoid releasing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Though promising, advanced coal technologies face steep financial and legal hurdles, and almost certainly will need sustained support from governments to develop the technology and move it to a point where its costs are low enough for widespread use.

US and China Must Stand Up to N. Korea

Martin B. Malin and Hui Zhang — Sun, 31 May 2009 01:17:18 -0400

"To facilitate enhanced Chinese support for North Korean denuclearization, Washington should also address some of Beijing's security concerns, including US-Japanese missile defense cooperation and sales of missile defense capabilities to Taiwan. The United States and China could also offer one another specific assurances regarding military deployments on the Korean peninsula. Even in the event of a North Korean collapse, the United States has no intention of moving its forces to the Chinese border; it would reduce Beijing's concerns if Washington said so."

Look at the Bright Side

Matthew Kroenig — Thu, 28 May 2009 11:22:01 -0400

"Others worry that North Korea, with its economy in shambles, will sell nuclear materials to earn hard currency. However, my research demonstrates that countries transfer nuclear technology for strategic, not economic, reasons. It is extremely unlikely, for example, that North Korea would sell nuclear technology to terrorists because of potentially devastating consequences. If the terrorists used those weapons on the U.S., it could spur massive retaliation against North Korea. The upside for the U.S.? It's much easier to deal with a country motivated by realpolitik than one blindly willing to trade away its security for a few bucks."

North Korea won't fire nuke ... but could sell one to Osama

Graham Allison — Thu, 28 May 2009 10:16:33 -0400

"The challenge for President Obama, Prime Minister Brown, members of the UN Security Council and the international community is to convince Kim Jong-il that he faces disastrous consequences."