Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - Afghanistan

Managing Risk in an Unstable World

Nicholas Burns — Fri, 11 Nov 2016 15:27:57 -0600

November 11, 2016

Dr. Ian Bremmer, expert in political risk and founder of the Eurasia Group, gave a seminar sponsored by the the Future of Diplomacy Project on Thursday, November 9 at the Harvard Kennedy School, titled “Managing Risk in an Unstable World."

The 2016 Epidemic of Afghan War Amnesia

Stephen M. Walt — Sun, 16 Oct 2016 15:28:20 -0500

"...[T]he well-intentioned Western effort to create a new Afghan state from scratch was equally misguided, as the new constitution envisioned a centralized, Western-style government in Kabul that was at odds with Afghan history and traditions. It also presumed a level of administrative competence and a revenue base that far exceeded Afghan capacities. Yet none of the international participants who embraced this outcome seemed to realize they had taken on an unrealistic and open-ended burden and that the new Afghan state would be dependent on lavish outside support more or less indefinitely."

Putting the Populist Revolt in Its Place

Joseph S. Nye — Thu, 06 Oct 2016 15:39:42 -0500

In many Western democracies, this is a year of revolt against elites. The success of the Brexit campaign in Britain, Donald Trump’s unexpected capture of the Republican Party in the United States, and populist parties’ success in Germany and elsewhere strike many as heralding the end of an era. As Financial Times columnist Philip Stephens put it, “the present global order – the liberal rules-based system established in 1945 and expanded after the end of the Cold War – is under unprecedented strain. Globalization is in retreat.”

In fact, it may be premature to draw such broad conclusions.

Some economists attribute the current surge of populism to the “hyper-globalization” of the 1990s, with liberalization of international financial flows and the creation of the World Trade Organization – and particularly China’s WTO accession in 2001 – receiving the most attention. According to one study, Chinese imports eliminated nearly one million US manufacturing jobs from 1999 to 2011; including suppliers and related industries brings the losses to 2.4 million.

A New-Old Plan to Save the World … That Has No Hope of Saving the World

Stephen M. Walt — Thu, 26 May 2016 14:53:50 -0500

"In short, this report calls on the United States to maintain every one of its current international commitments, double down on policies that have repeatedly failed, and take on expensive, risky, and uncertain projects in several regions at once."

SOUTH ASIA WEEK: U.S. Strategy in Afghanistan and Pakistan

Mon, 09 May 2016 22:08:48 -0500

May 9, 2016

In an off-the-record discussion as part of the Project's annual South Asia Week, Ambassador Richard Olson, U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, delivered a frank assessment of U.S. long-term strategy in the region.

Photo Gallery: 2016 South Asia Week

Mon, 09 May 2016 20:53:50 -0500

May 9, 2016

From April 25 to April 29, The Future of Diplomacy Project and India and South Asia Project hosted the annual South Asia Week with influential practitioners of diplomacy from Bangladesh, Pakistan, India, and the U.S. invited to discuss prevailing issues affecting the region.

Conversations in Diplomacy: Ambassador Maleeha Lodhi

Mon, 25 Apr 2016 11:12:16 -0500

April 25, 2016

Maleeha Lodhi, In this installment of “Conversations in Diplomacy," the Future of Diplomacy Project's Executive Director, Cathryn Clüver, speaks with Ambassador Maleeha Lodhi, Pakistan's Permanent Representative to the United Nations.

Obama Was Not a Realist President

Stephen M. Walt — Thu, 07 Apr 2016 17:23:53 -0500

"...[A]fter seven-plus years in office, this most articulate of presidents never articulated a clear and coherent framework identifying what those vital interests are and why and spelling out how the United States could advance broader political ideals at acceptable cost and risk."

What Would a Realist World Have Looked Like?

Stephen M. Walt — Fri, 08 Jan 2016 16:52:04 -0600

"Realists believe nationalism and other local identities are powerful and enduring; states are mostly selfish; altruism is rare; trust is hard to come by; and norms and institutions have a limited impact on what powerful states do. In short, realists have a generally pessimistic view of international affairs and are wary of efforts to remake the world according to some ideological blueprint, no matter how appealing it might be in the abstract."

The Islamic State of Afghanistan

Emile Simpson — Tue, 22 Dec 2015 16:43:22 -0600

"A negotiated solution would require a military stalemate on the ground, and this depends on NATO forces guaranteeing that Afghan forces in key positions will not be overrun. This is the political objective that should inform Western military support in Afghanistan from here on out: to make clear to the Taliban that they can achieve more through a peace deal than through fighting and to make clear to Western electorates that this isn't a forever war."

We're Putting Lives in Danger By Not Clarifying What It Takes to Get Asylum in Europe

Jill Goldenziel — Tue, 03 Nov 2015 14:29:02 -0600

"...[V]ulnerable people must be empowered to make informed decisions to avoid interrupting their livelihoods and their children's educations, decimating their savings and at worst, losing their lives. Wealthier nations seeking to avoid expensive border clashes, security controls, asylum processing and political costs have every incentive to help them do so."

The U.S. cannot afford to forget Afghanistan and Pakistan

David Ignatius — Fri, 30 Oct 2015 11:57:14 -0500

Last weekend’s deadly attack on an international hospital in Afghanistan was a reminder of the terrible war that grinds on there, with Afghan civilians caught in the crossfire.

Lax Americana

Stephen M. Walt — Fri, 23 Oct 2015 16:29:24 -0500

"Had the United States abandoned former Afghan president Hamid Karzai back in 2009, for example, it would have sent a clear message to other U.S. clients that the United States was not going to prop up corrupt, incompetent, and ungrateful foreign leaders forever. It would have reminded other states that Washington was not running a charity operation, that its support was neither unconditional nor open-ended, and that above all it prefers to back winners"

Is Kunduz the Beginning of the End for Afghanistan?

Emile Simpson — Sun, 04 Oct 2015 10:35:09 -0500

"Kunduz is potentially a game changer because it exposes the gap between the paper plan for the defense of Afghanistan and the reality on the ground, particularly in two key areas: first, the capability Afghan ground forces; and second, the credibility of their NATO back-up."

The Second Kick of a Mule in Afghanistan

Andrew Gawthorpe — Thu, 01 Oct 2015 14:54:12 -0500

"Whatever military victories were won by international forces during their time in Iraq and Afghanistan, the only true test of success in these wars is the long-term durability of their pro-Western regimes. But in both countries, these regimes are withering under the insurgent challenge and morphing into something quite unlike what their patrons intended."

What Do Politicians Really Mean by 'Global Leadership?'

Stephen M. Walt — Fri, 04 Sep 2015 07:41:21 -0500

"...[W]hat I'd really like to know is what the different candidates think about this issue, and hear them explain why U.S. taxpayers should pay a lot more than our allies’ citizens do and how Americans actually benefit from the energetic foreign policy that both GOP and Democratic stalwarts never even question. I'd also like to see reporters give them a good grilling on this topic, and refuse to accept vague or non-specific responses."

A Bush Has a New Theory on Who Lost Iraq

Charles G. Cogan — Mon, 17 Aug 2015 22:29:38 -0500

"Though no U.S. commentators have stated that the U.S. government actively aided ISIS and other Jihadi groups, it is worthwhile stating — at least to my knowledge — that no Arab Jihadis have received American aid. Some confusion may have arisen from the fact that on the Afghan side it is a different story."

Engage Muslim Millennials

Farah Pandith — Sat, 13 Jun 2015 12:27:52 -0500

Farah Pandith, a Senior Fellow at the Future of Diplomacy Project, provides her answer to the question "What should the U.S. do about ISIS?" in this piece for National Journal.

How the Drone Age Came to Pakistan

Charles G. Cogan — Tue, 02 Jun 2015 10:35:39 -0500

"In the 1950's the CIA, developer of the U-2 spy plane, carried out reconnaissance flights over the Soviet Union, starting from the Pakistani military base in Peshawar. The ISI, the intelligence service of the all-powerful Pakistani Army, was assigned to coordinate these flights with CIA personnel in Pakistan. Thus began the longstanding relationship between the CIA, a civilian intelligence service, and the ISI, a military intelligence service, a relationship that lasted all through the years...."

Prime Minister Modi's First Year In Office: A Report Card

Ronak D. Desai — Tue, 26 May 2015 19:58:26 -0500

In 2014, Narendra Modi was sworn-in as India’s new prime minister. He and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) swept into power following their crushing electoral victory over the incumbent Congress Party-led government. Mr. Modi campaigned on a message of bringing wholesale change to the world’s largest democracy and improving the lives of its 1.3 billion citizens. The message resonated with the country’s immense electorate, which conferred upon him an unprecedented mandate to deliver on his promises. Raising expectations both at home and abroad, Mr. Modi confidently declared achhe din, or good days, were on the horizon.

This article, one year later, asks whether the prime minister’s assured rhetoric matches his record so far. In this piece, Ronak Desai gives us a brief report card of Mr. Modi’s progress at the year marker.

South Asia Week 2015: Photo Gallery

Wed, 20 May 2015 05:58:31 -0500

May 20, 2015

The Future of Diplomacy Project, in partnership with the South Asia Institute at Harvard University, launched its annual South Asia Week, beginning April 24. This year the week-long lineup included an impressive group of influential leading diplomats, journalists, and experts on South Asian affairs.

Mission Impossible: Iran Is Too Powerful to Contain

Dina Esfandiary and Ariane Tabatabai — Sat, 11 Apr 2015 23:31:50 -0500

"...U.S. and Iranian strategic interests align on some key issues, including the fight against ISIS and the postcombat mission era in Afghanistan....Today, Tehran is the only actor involved that has enough at stake in Iraq to be willing and able to send in ground troops, should the need arise. In Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia was one of three countries to recognize the Taliban as an official government. But Iran has and continues to want the Taliban out of the picture, as does Washington."

From Selma to Tunis: When Will We March Against the Segregation of Our Own Time?

Ayaan Hirsi Ali — Fri, 03 Apr 2015 14:28:49 -0500

This year, with good reason, Americans have celebrated the moment 50 years ago when the struggle for civil rights for African-Americans reached a decisive moment: the 1965 March from Selma to Montgomery. The movie Selma won an Oscar. President Obama went to Selma and gave one of his finest speeches.

Hirsi Ali: Beware of Michiganistan

Ayaan Hirsi Ali — Fri, 03 Apr 2015 14:21:18 -0500

Since the massacre at the offices of the French satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo in January, the U.S. media has understandably devoted attention to the problem of radical Islam in Europe. The fact has been widely reported that thousands of European Union citizens have traveled to Iraq and Syria to join the self-styled Islamic State. Almost as much coverage has been given to stories of French Jews emigrating to Israel. And there have been numerous articles about Michel Houellebecq’s diabolically timed novel Soumission, which imagines France in 2022 with a Muslim president introducing sharia law and being fawned over by the Parisian establishment.

The Islam reformers vs. the Muslim zealots

Ayaan Hirsi Ali — Fri, 03 Apr 2015 13:42:16 -0500

The ferment we see in the Muslim world today is not solely due to despotic political systems, and it is not solely due to failing economies and the poverty they breed. Rather, it is also due largely to Islam itself and the incompatibility of certain of that faith’s key tenets with modernity. That is why the most important conflict in the world today is between those who are hell-bent on preserving, and even increasing, these incompatibilities, and those who are bravely prepared to challenge them — not to overthrow Islam but to reform it.

Why Islam Needs a Reformation

Ayaan Hirsi Ali — Fri, 03 Apr 2015 13:22:23 -0500

“Islam’s borders are bloody,” wrote the late political scientist Samuel Huntington in 1996, “and so are its innards.” Nearly 20 years later, Huntington looks more right than ever before. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, at least 70% of all the fatalities in armed conflicts around the world last year were in wars involving Muslims. In 2013, there were nearly 12,000 terrorist attacks world-wide. The lion’s share were in Muslim-majority countries, and many of the others were carried out by Muslims. By far the most numerous victims of Muslim violence—including executions and lynchings not captured in these statistics—are Muslims themselves.

Just Say No

Stephen M. Walt — Tue, 31 Mar 2015 07:18:08 -0500

"...[T]he central challenge in the greater Middle East is the lack of effective and legitimate political institutions — especially in places like Libya, Syria, Yemen, and post-invasion Iraq. Military force is useful for certain purposes, but the ability to blow things up and kill people does not translate into a workable set of governing institutions. In fact, the more the United States relies on military force to 'manage' these problems, the more it encourages others to take up arms against us or against our clients, which in turn allows those with a taste and talent for violence to dominate the political landscape."

Why We Failed to Win a Decisive Victory in Afghanistan

Emile Simpson — Mon, 02 Mar 2015 19:06:21 -0600

"In Afghanistan, as in Iraq, when the conventional phase was over and the mission became indistinguishable from enforcing the writ of a relatively corrupt government over disillusioned parts of its own population, the notion that a decisive outcome was even available is illusory: first, because that task is endless — as it's about changing people's political affiliations, which are liable to evolve (as we have seen quite spectacularly in Iraq since the surge); second, because there was not a single coherent enemy force to be rendered powerless in the first place."

Pakistan, India, and China After the U.S. Drawdown from Afghanistan

Rabia Akhtar and Jayita Sarkar — Thu, 29 Jan 2015 18:29:48 -0600

This paper examines the strategic future of South Asia in the wake of the U.S. drawdown from Afghanistan through three key research questions: first, how does the U.S. drawdown from Afghanistan affect the regional security and economic interests of India, Pakistan, and China? Secondly, what kinds of responses to terror attacks by India, Pakistan, and China could further destabilize the region? Thirdly, what key steps can the United States take to prevent further instability in this context?

US has a closer relationship with India than with Pakistan: Nicholas Burns

Nicholas Burns — Mon, 12 Jan 2015 08:56:36 -0600

New Delhi: HKS professor and former US undersecretary of state for political affairs Nicholas Burns is well-known in India as the diplomat who led the negotiations on the US-India civil nuclear deal that transformed bilateral ties. In New Delhi last week for a Track-Two non-official dialogue, Burns said he hoped that the Indian government under Prime Minister Narendra Modi would clearly articulate what his vision for a strong India-US strategic partnership would be. Burns also said he hoped the Modi government will revive the India-US nuclear deal as part of its economic agenda.